IAIH :: Volume #11

#1017: The feasibility of plan


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On the whole, John the plan that Mark gives is equal to a stock has exclusive selling rights the contract, currently speaking, John Mark has the boldness. 大体上,约翰马克给出的这份方案相当于一份股票包销合约,从这一点来看,约翰马克还是相当有魄力的。 The investment bank is responsible for selling on consignment the customer stock the way typically to have two types, one type has exclusive selling rights, one type sells. 投资银行负责承销客户股票的方式通常有两种,一种是包销,一种是代销。 Has exclusive selling rights under the pattern, the credit corroborative needs to guarantee the stock that the customer entrusted sold to complete completely, if there are surplus, needed credit corroborative to invest the remainders to continue, therefore the credit corroborative needs to take very big risk. Compares, sells does not need the guaranteed stock the sales share, sells many are many. Similarly, commission proportion that this sales model, the credit corroborative can attain, usually only then has exclusive selling rights the half of pattern. 包销模式下,承销商需要保证客户委托的股票全部销售完成,如果有所剩余,就需要承销商自己出资将剩余部分承接下来,因此承销商就需要承担很大的风险。相比起来,代销就不需要保证股票的销售份额,卖出多少就是多少。同样的,这种销售模式,承销商能够拿到的佣金比例,通常只有包销模式的一半。 Naturally, these two ways usually sell on consignment the new stock that the enterprise issues additionally, but this time, John Mark is actually plans to have exclusive selling rights in the Eric hand the existing AOL complete stock . Moreover the value of this stock is unprecedented. 当然,这两种方式通常都是承销企业增发的新股,而这次,约翰马克却是打算包销艾瑞克手中已有的美国在线全部股票,而且这笔股票的价值更是史无前例。 In plan, John Mark proposed that is used own stock distribution by Morgan Stanley, is responsible for having exclusive selling rights in the Firefly investment hand all AOL stocks. The Firefly investment needs to pay the Morgan Stanley 5% sales volumes to take the commission. Meanwhile, to coordinate the sale of Morgan Stanley, the Firefly investment also needs to give a relative preferential benefit also to be not by the market public stock price fluctuation influence fixed price, when this wholesale price with enterprise IPO is similar. 方案中,约翰马克提议由摩根士丹利使用自身的股票销售网络,负责包销萤火虫投资手中所有美国在线股票。萤火虫投资需要支付摩根士丹利5%的销售额作为佣金。同时,为了配合摩根士丹利的销售,萤火虫投资也需要给出一个相对优惠同时也必须是一个不受市场公开股价波动影响的固定价格,这就与企业IPO时的发行价类似。 The Firefly investment company first time gained the AOL 30% stockholder's rights to start by 60 million USD from 1992, to strengthen the domination bought in the AOL stock to the beginning of the year on a large scale, the total capital of Firefly system from all sides use altogether was 1.5 billion 70 million USD, a large part spent at the end of last year to buying of beginning of this year these days on. 从1992年萤火虫投资公司第一次以6000万美元获取美国在线30%股权开始,一直到年初为了加强控制权而大举吸纳美国在线股票,萤火虫体系前前后后累计动用的资本总额一共是15亿7000万美元,这其中很大一部分都花在去年年底到今年年初这段时间的吸纳上。 However, according to the plan of Eric, 3.1% stocks that but the clover fund has, will be high when next year AOL stock price undersells one after another, sufficiently will take back all capital of Firefly system these year of payouts. Firefly investment company that side 32.6% AOL stocks, regardless of sells many, regarding Eric, can be net gains. 不过,按照艾瑞克的计划,只是三叶草基金持有的3.1%的股票,在明年美国在线股价较高时陆续抛售,就足以收回萤火虫体系这些年付出的所有资本。萤火虫投资公司那边32.6%的美国在线股票,无论卖出多少,对于艾瑞克来说,都可以算是净赚。 According to yesterday's closing price, 32.6% AOL stocks that in the Firefly investment hand had publicly, the value grand total was 1 4.2 billion USD. 按照昨日的收盘价,萤火虫投资手中公开持有的32.6%的美国在线股票,价值总计为142亿美元 What 1 4.2 billion does USD mean? 142亿美元意味着什么? At the beginning of the year Forbes global rich and powerful people list list, controls the Mars family of famous Mars food company is being ranking tenth, the family wealth also 1 3.5 billion USD. If did not consider capital interest tax that and other factors temporarily needs to pay, is only this 4.2 billion USD cash, before sufficiently lets a person crushes into the global rich and powerful people list , the name. 年初的福布斯全球富豪榜榜单上,控制着大名鼎鼎的玛氏食品公司的玛氏家族位列排行榜第十名,家族财富也才135亿美元。如果暂时不考虑需要交纳的资本利得税等因素,只是这142亿美元的现金,就足以让一个人挤进全球富豪榜前名。 If can succeed according to the current stock price cashes completely, even if cannot compare with General Electric and Walmart these business tycoons, but Eric absolutely becomes global will have cash reserve many individuals . Moreover the amount goes far beyond in the world other rich and powerful people. 如果能够成功按照目前的股价全部兑现,即使不能与通用电气沃尔玛这些企业巨头相比,但艾瑞克也绝对会成为全球拥有现金储备最多的个人,而且金额远远超过世界上其他所有富豪。 Nobody compared with the bubble ingredient that in the Eric clearer AOL stock contains, his originally plan bursts using the Internet bubble the beforehand these days, sells the AOL stocks in more hand as far as possible, leverages a 20 billion USD fund to come out. 没有人比艾瑞克更清楚美国在线股票中蕴含的泡沫成分,他的原本计划就是利用互联网泡沫破裂之前的这段时间,尽可能卖出更多手中的美国在线股票,套现一两百亿美元资金出来。 Once the Internet bubble bursts, even if in hand the surplus stocks in a short time as before are maintaining very high face value, but in fact, when the time comes definitely will again not have the investor to buy up easily. 一旦互联网泡沫破裂,即使手中剩余的股票短时间内依旧保持着非常高的票面价值,但实际上,到时候绝对不会再有投资人会轻易买进。 Therefore, if can cash in a short time completely, falls the bag is secure, even if the AOL current market value is lower than the peak in Eric memory, he suddenly does not resist John plan that Mark gives. 因此,如果能够短时间内全部兑现,落袋为安,即使美国在线目前的市值远低于艾瑞克记忆中的最高点,他一时间也并不抗拒约翰马克给出的方案。 Read John earnestly the plan that Mark gave, Eric gained ground, asks: „Does John, related to the capital operations of 100 hundred million USD, you have the big assurance to be able successfully to complete this plan?” 只是,认真阅读完约翰马克给出的方案,艾瑞克抬头,问道:“约翰,涉及到100多亿美元的资本运作,你有多大把握能够顺利完成这份计划?” According to me the acquired information, the international idle fund started to evacuate from Southeast Asia recently massively, some hedge funds also start to change the Russia ruble the goal, will possibly launch the attack to ruble this month. Once starts, I think that the ruble links for one month unable to support absolutely.” John Mark does not have the direct reaction Eric issue, in the expression is bringing the light self-confidence, said: Therefore, Eric, I approve that viewpoint of your previous time saying now, the NASDAQ 2000 points merely are only a start. In view of this plan, Morgan Stanley will then issue a series of will continue to rise the analysis report that about the NASDAQ index, the confidence of exciting investor, this aspect, I hope Firefly Group can also give certain media resources coordination.” “根据我最近收集到的信息,国际游资已经开始大规模从东南亚撤离,一些对冲基金也开始将目标转向俄罗斯卢布,甚至可能会在这个月就发动对卢布的攻击。一旦发动,我认为卢布绝对连一个月都撑不下去。”约翰马克没有直接回答艾瑞克的问题,语气里带着淡淡的自信,道:“所以,艾瑞克,我现在非常认同你上次说的那个观点,纳指2000点仅仅只是一个开始。针对这份方案,摩根士丹利接下来会发布一系列关于纳斯达克指数将继续上扬的分析报告,刺激投资人的信心,这方面,我希望萤火虫集团这边也能够给予一定的媒体资源配合。” Wall Street several big investment bank official economic analysis reports have formidable influence, may affect every so often even the economic data trends in some countries. 华尔街几大投行官方的经济分析报告有着非常强大的影响力,很多时候甚至可能会影响到一些国家的经济数据走势。 Once sub-prime loan crisis, was because the Wall Street major investment banks through openly published a series of economic data to promote the security and rate of return of high risk home mortgage loan repeatedly, this made the investor who bought up the related bond in large numbers loss. In investor who receives misleading, even includes Deutsche Bank these Europe financial giants, thus it can be seen the formidable influence of Wall Street investment bank. 曾经的次贷危机,就是因为华尔街各大投行通过公开发表一系列经济数据反复鼓吹高风险住房抵押贷款的安全性和回报率,这才使得大批买入相关债券的投资者血本无归。受到误导的投资者中,甚至包括德意志银行这些欧洲金融巨头,由此可见华尔街投行的强大影响力。 As the NASDAQ index tops 2000 points, realized the investors who hi-tech stock bubble start become more and more discrete. However, if there are Morgan Stanley such Wall Street investment bank giants to make the explicit endorsement for the NASDAQ index trend, large quantities of investors will be affected. 随着纳斯达克指数突破2000点,很多意识到科技股泡沫的投资人都开始变得越来越谨慎。但是,如果有摩根士丹利这样的华尔街投行巨头为纳斯达克指数走势做出明确背书,大批投资人都将受到影响。 John Mark said these words, has been clear about his confidence and disbursement effort to this plan. 约翰马克说出这番话,就已经明确了他对这份计划的信心和支出力度。 Eric thinks, asked an issue of considerable concern, said: „, How long do you need?” 艾瑞克想了想,又问了一个自己比较关注的问题,道:“那么,你需要多长时间?” John Mark had considered obviously this aspect detail, replied decisively: Three months, Morgan Stanley needs one month of issue related economy to sentence to carry on sedan chair to drum up support in advance. If the Russia economic crisis breaks out these days as scheduled, we will have confidence. One month later, Morgan Stanley can sell the AOL stock to our connection investment institution.” 约翰马克显然已经考虑过这方面细节,果断答道:“三个月时间,摩根士丹利需要一个月时间发布相关的经济预判进行舆伦造势。如果这段时间俄罗斯经济危机如期爆发,我们会更加有把握。一个月后,摩根士丹利才可以向我们的关联投资机构推销美国在线的股票。” This,” Eric by to the sofa chairback, is looking at John Mark, said: You thought how I should process initially in the conference call has said that plan?” “这样的话,”艾瑞克靠向沙发椅背,望着约翰马克,道:“你觉得,我该怎么处理当初在视频会议上说过的那份计划?” At the end of June in that conference call of New Zealand, the Eric manner requests other AOL shareholders to buy in the Firefly investment hand within one month strong 10% AOL stocks, otherwise the Firefly investment will choose to the open market undersells. 六月底在新西兰的那次视频会议上,艾瑞克态度强势地要求美国在线其他股东在一个月之内买下萤火虫投资手中10%的美国在线股票,否则萤火虫投资将选择向公开市场抛售。 The deadline that at this time Eric gives passed for nearly half a month the time, he is naturally impossible to let it go casually. 此时艾瑞克给出的期限已经过去了将近半个月时间,他自然不可能随随便便不了了之。 John Mark suddenly discovered one have neglected. From yesterday afternoon to the present, he almost very natural thought that after oneself puts out this has the plan of safeguard, Eric will again definitely not insist on plan originally. 约翰马克突然发现自己还是有所疏忽。从昨天下午到现在,他几乎很自然地觉得,自己拿出这份非常有保障的方案之后,艾瑞克肯定不会再坚持原本的计划。 Eric said that has stopped moment, has not waited for John Mark opens the mouth once more, said: John, I said my idea.” 艾瑞克说完,停顿了片刻,没等约翰马克再次开口,就说道:“约翰,我还是说一下我的想法吧。” John Mark suddenly cannot think the good excuse, hears the Eric words, the subconsciousness nodded. 约翰马克一时间没能想好说辞,听到艾瑞克的话,下意识点了点头。 Actually, everybody is clear, including Morgan Stanley, AOL other shareholders does not calculate that too resists to buy up this 10% stocks, you worried that the Firefly investment also will press the surplus stocks on you.” “其实,大家都清楚,包括摩根士丹利在内,美国在线的其他股东并不算太抗拒买入这10%的股票,你们只是担心萤火虫投资会将剩余的股票也压在你们身上。” Eric spoke of here, has stopped slightly, continued saying: But, your plan, actually solves the problem that everybody has faced. Since this, I can make some concessions slightly, that 10% stock, is continued by the AOL shareholder as before, the price according to 4 billion USD computations that I give at first. Then, the Firefly investment gives the Morgan Stanley 15% AOL stocks to have exclusive selling rights again the power, the price is 6 billion USD. Meanwhile, Firefly invests the public guarantee, within one year, no longer in reducing hand surplus stocks.” 艾瑞克说到这里,稍微停顿了下,继续道:“不过,你的这份方案,却解决了大家面临的问题。既然这样,我可以稍微做出一些让步,那10%的股票,依旧由美国在线股东承接,价格按照我最初给出的40亿美元计算。接下来,萤火虫投资再给摩根士丹利15%的美国在线股票包销权,价格为60亿美元。同时,萤火虫投资公开保证,一年之内,不再减持手中剩余的股票。” John on the Mark face shows the surprised look, he has not thought that such short time, Eric has made the so large scale modification to the plan that he drew up. 约翰马克脸上露出惊讶的神色,他没有想到只是这么短的时间,艾瑞克就对他拿出的方案做出了如此大幅度的改动。 Considers in detail, John Mark also has to acknowledge that the Eric revision plan, regarding the Firefly investment without doubt is most advantageous. 只是,详细斟酌一下,约翰马克也不得不承认,艾瑞克的修改方案,对于萤火虫投资来说无疑是最有利的。 The sell amounts to 25% stocks, fixes a price 10 billion USD. According to the current AOL market value, Eric resigned the 900 million USD benefit probably. But in fact, this price and Eric at the end of June offer in conference call quite. 出售总计25%的股票,作价100亿美元。按照目前的美国在线市值来说,艾瑞克大概让出了9亿美元的利益。但实际上,这个价格与艾瑞克六月底视频会议上的报价相当。 Meanwhile, will trade to be divided into two parts, 10% defer to the plan that Eric initially gave, is continued by other AOL shareholders, the Firefly investment does not need to pay the Morgan Stanley 5% commissions again. 同时,将交易分成两部分,其中10%按照艾瑞克当初给出的方案,由美国在线其他股东承接,萤火虫投资也就不需要再支付摩根士丹利5%的佣金。 Another 15% stocks have exclusive selling rights by Morgan Stanley, originally has exclusive selling rights the plan to great writer, this greatly raised the success ratio of sale without doubt, reduces the risk, simultaneously the Firefly investment can also in recoup the fund most in a short time. 另外15%的股票由摩根士丹利包销,相对于原本的大手笔包销计划,这样无疑大幅提高了销售的成功率,降低风险,同时萤火虫投资也可以在最短时间内收回资金。 If sells on consignment 15%, Morgan Stanley does not need three months of such a long time absolutely. 如果只是承销15%的话,摩根士丹利是绝对不需要三个月时间那么长时间的。 Sells 25% stocks, in the Firefly investment hand grasps 7.6% stocks as before. 出售25%的股票,萤火虫投资手中依旧掌握7.6%的股票。 The ownership percentage reduces to below 10%, although as before is the major stockholder, but the Firefly investment was unable to produce to AOL again too in a big way affects, the promise that in addition in the Eric last year does not reduce, the AOL stock price will get thoroughly rid of the shadow that the Firefly investment time possibly reduces brings, returns to the overall trend that the entire bulk lots rise fast. 持股比例降低到10%以下,虽然依旧算是大股东,但萤火虫投资已经无法再对美国在线产生太大影响,再加上艾瑞克最后一年内不减持的许诺,美国在线股价将彻底摆脱萤火虫投资时刻可能减持带来的阴影,重新回归整个大盘快速上扬的整体走势。 Finally, retains 7.6% stocks, once the AOL market value continues to rise, the Firefly investment can yield certain income from the stock price rise in the future. 最后,保留7.6%的股票,一旦美国在线市值持续上扬,萤火虫投资将来还是可以从股价上涨中获得一定的收益。 As the matter stands, the Morgan Stanley income must lower on many. 只是,这样一来,摩根士丹利的收益就要低上很多。 According to originally has exclusive selling rights the plan, although the risk is somewhat big, if succeeds, according to 5% commission proportions, Morgan Stanley will obtain six to seven hundred million USD commission incomes, is only this project, will bring to be equal to the Morgan Stanley whole year about 25% profits. 按照原本的包销计划,虽然风险有些大,但一旦成功,按照5%的佣金比例,摩根士丹利将获得六到七亿美元的佣金收益,只是这一个项目,就将带来相当于摩根士丹利全年25%左右利润。 But now, value 6 billion USD has exclusive selling rights the plan, Morgan Stanley can only attain the 300 million USD commission, has been short of more than one time compared with the initial plan. 但现在,价值60亿美元的包销方案,摩根士丹利就只能拿到3亿美元的佣金,比最初方案少了一倍多。 Suddenly, John Mark had one type to transfer the feeling of clothes for other people suddenly. 一时间,约翰马克突然产生了一种为他人作嫁衣裳的感觉。 If Eric can completely understand that John the Mark thoughts, definitely quite will admire the opposite party to be able in such a short time to analyze own all intentions. 艾瑞克如果能够看透约翰马克的心思,肯定会颇为佩服对方能够在这么短时间内就分析出自己的所有意图。 Sells 25% stocks one time, the AOL stock share that in fact, in the Firefly investment and clover fund hand have achieves 10.7% as before. However, on the ownership percentage of Firefly investment was actually to fall outwardly 7.6%, such ownership percentage, has made the market put down sufficiently to the anxiety of Firefly investment. 一次性卖出25%的股票,实际上,萤火虫投资和三叶草基金手中持有的美国在线股票份额依旧达到10.7%。不过,明面上萤火虫投资的持股比例却是降到了7.6%,这样的持股比例,已经足以让市场放下对萤火虫投资的忧虑。 As for this 25% AOL stock prices 10 billion USD, are lower than in the memory the AOL market value peak value. But Eric believes that even if opposite John Mark, if can see the future, he will make probably also the similar choice. 至于这25%的美国在线股票作价才100亿美元,远低于记忆中美国在线市值最高点时的价值。但艾瑞克相信,即使是对面的约翰马克,如果能够看到未来,他大概也会做出同样的选择。 Only then invests this sets reins to take down in AOL stealth Firefly thoroughly, the AOL stock price in next more than one year, can follow the NASDAQ market overall trend, is similar to the incorrigible hurricane. Otherwise, AOL can only cover under the reducing shadow of Firefly investment frequently, but Eric is impossible to give up reducing the AOL stock, otherwise, this wealth will only crash to unravel along with the NASDAQ index in the future. 只有将萤火虫投资这个套在美国在线身上的隐形‘缰绳’彻底取下,美国在线股价在未来一年多时间,才可以跟随纳斯达克市场整体走势,如同脱缰野马般一路狂飙。否则,美国在线只会时刻笼罩在萤火虫投资的减持阴影之下,而艾瑞克也不可能放弃减持美国在线股票,不然的话,将来这笔财富只会随着纳斯达克指数崩盘而灰飞烟灭。 In the memory, at this time next year, NASDAQ index will also break 3000. At that time, saw the persistent eruption of hi-tech stock, not only Wall Street, the investors of world will thoroughly fall into completely lose in sane crazy. 记忆中,明年这个时候,纳斯达克指数也将突破3000点大关。那时候,眼看着科技股的持续爆发,不只是华尔街,全世界的投资人都将彻底陷入完全失去理智的疯狂之中。 By that time, the Firefly investment and clover fund reduce in the hand again one after another surplus AOL stocks, not only will not provoke the too big negative reaction again, will also encounter raiding of investor. 到那时,萤火虫投资和三叶草基金再陆续减持手中剩余美国在线股票,不但不会再引起太大的负面反应,甚至还会遭到投资人的哄抢。 Saw that John Mark silent some little time, Eric has to open the mouth to say on own initiative once more: John, I believe 5% commission proportions that you just gave definitely still have the leeway that bargained back and forth. However, so long as Morgan Stanley coordinated my just plan, I can guarantee now that the Firefly investment entrusted to Morgan Stanley that 15% stocks, deferred to 5% commission proportions to calculate that you did think what kind of?” 眼看约翰马克沉默了好一会儿,艾瑞克只好主动再次开口道:“约翰,我相信你刚刚给出的5%的佣金比例肯定还存在讨价还价的余地。不过,只要摩根士丹利配合我刚刚的方案,我现在就可以保证,萤火虫投资委托给摩根士丹利的那15%股票,就按照5%的佣金比例来算,你觉得怎么样?” John Mark hesitant moment, maintained on the tranquil face has revealed as far as possible the light forced smile. Simultaneously somewhat admires the Eric keen commercial vision at heart, he catches up with Los Angeles and Eric directly meets, but is not first and New York Eric agent Chris the Hansson contact, hit some are pinching soft persimmon the thought. This time is understands that own calculation was makes a mistake completely. 约翰马克犹豫了片刻,尽可能保持平静的脸上还是露出了淡淡的苦笑。同时心里又有些佩服艾瑞克敏锐的商业眼光,他直接赶来洛杉矶艾瑞克见面,而不是先和纽约艾瑞克的代理人克里斯汉森接触,本来还打着一些‘捏软柿子’的念头。此时算是明白过来,自己的小算盘算是完全打错了。 Moreover, how now he does not comply to be able. 而且,现在他不答应又能如何。 The commercial plan does not have any patent and so on limit. If did not agree that Eric can definitely look for the Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and other company cooperation at this time. Once this situation occurred, it is estimated that the Morgan Stanley competitor had a dream must smile to awake, Wall Street several big investment banks have wanted to rob Firefly this super super client. 商业方案可不存在什么专利权之类的限制。如果自己不同意,艾瑞克此时完全可以找高盛雷曼兄弟等公司合作。一旦这种情况真的发生,估计摩根士丹利的竞争对手做梦都要笑醒了,华尔街几大投行可是一直都想将萤火虫这个超级大客户抢走啊。 Has not hesitated again, John Mark quick reaches out Eric, said: „, Wish us to cooperate happily.” 没有再迟疑下去,约翰马克很快向艾瑞克伸手过来,道:“那么,祝我们合作愉快。” Eric put out a hand to grasp with the opposite party, was smiling the nod: Cooperation is happy.” 艾瑞克伸手与对方握了下,微笑着点头:“合作愉快。” Eric must invest into «Gravity» shoots on Monday, the detailed cooperation detail, naturally can give to be in New York Chris to be responsible. 艾瑞克周一就要投入到《地心引力》的拍摄当中,详细的合作细节,自然会交给身在纽约克里斯负责。 Discussed that this matter, they also chatted Firefly Group 2 billion USD bond issuance matters concerned, the sales work of this bond started from last week. 商量完这件事,两人又聊了一番萤火虫集团20亿美元债券发行的事宜,这笔债券的销售工作从上周就已经开始。 Although that side the Firefly investment anticipated will have the big income, Eric has not actually terminated the bond issuance plan of Firefly Group. Because not only this plan already started to promote, is impossible to withdraw temporarily . Moreover, the suitable debt, can play the tax affairs to reduce and other functions regarding Firefly Group. 虽然萤火虫投资那边预期将有大笔进账,艾瑞克却没有终止萤火虫集团债券发行计划。不只是因为这份计划早就已经开始推动,不可能临时撤回,而且,适当的负债,对于萤火虫集团也能够起到税务减免等作用。 At noon detains John Mark has used the lunch in Cliff Peak Manor, in the afternoon sends off the opposite party, Eric then brings Aniston to rush to the California Saint Simon Hearst castle the weekend. 中午挽留约翰马克尖角庄园用过午餐,下午送走对方,艾瑞克便带着安妮斯顿赶往加州西蒙赫斯特城堡过周末。
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