Yanjing time 9 : 30 pm, NASDAQ opens. 燕京时间晚上9点半,纳斯达克开盘。 The last trading day by the Sina stocks of 16 USD price closing, opening has fallen 145, the decline range achieves 94%! The Sina high level when sees this opening price, almost did not have the faint in the past, such big opening decline range, previous time appeared under the internet bubble shatter environment, but now is internet of worldwide scale returns to warmer weather...... 上一个交易日以16美元价格收盘的新浪股票,开盘就已经跌到了145,跌幅达到94%！新浪高层在看到这个开盘价的时候,几乎没昏厥过去,这么大的开盘跌幅,上次出现还是在互联网泡沫破碎的大环境下,而现在已经是世界范围的互联网回暖了…… Because started to bring out the wireless business in April, therefore the Sina stock price just now some improvements, rises recently all the way long time, opens today suddenly falls suddenly, not only keeps the Sina high level from accepting, makes many small-scale investors dumbfounded. 因为四月份刚开始推出无线业务,所以新浪的股价最近才刚有些起色,一路上涨多日,今天忽然开盘就暴跌,不但让新浪高层无法接受,也让众多小型投资者目瞪口呆。 The present Sina market value overall level is somewhat low, is mainly at present in the eyes of investor, its product line is sole, most businesses in Portal online, internally after it historical stock price soaring is also the wireless business rises suddenly, starts, but wants to wait for this gusty area at least to need to wait by the second half of 2003, therefore the Sina stock price only depends on the Portal net to support, and Portal net at present almost links up. 眼下的新浪市值整体水平偏低,主要是眼下在投资人的眼里,它的产品线还是过于单一,绝大多数的业务都在门户网上,它历史上的股价腾飞也是在国内无线业务暴涨之后才开始的,但是想等这个风口至少要等到2003年下半年,所以眼下新浪的股价只靠门户网支撑着、和门户网几乎完全挂钩。 The website 1/4 current capacities were caught, this to the investment market absolutely is a very big advantage spatial news, but the US stock market market free degree of openness is high, significant advantage spatial news, the dead end will come in swarms, in this case, it is almost certain that opening falls 94% is only a start. 网站四分之一的流量被卡住,这对投资市场来说绝对是一个非常重大的利空消息,而美股市场自由开放度高,重大利空消息一出,空头就会蜂拥而至,在这种情况下,几乎可以肯定的是,开盘跌94%只是一个开始而已。 Sina all core level because of the reaction of market, but the heart, to evening's 10 o'clock, everyone one in the conference room step has not left coolly, they have been focusing on the stock price trend, simultaneously comforts the investor in the telephone, but this time stock price has tumbled 139,140 checkpoints also to fall into enemy hands with the stance of diving, at present the stock price had fallen 132%, may be called the disaster. 新浪全体核心层都因为市场的反应而心凉不已,一直到晚上十点钟,大家还都在会议室里一步也没有离开,他们一直紧盯着股价的动态,同时在电话里安抚投资人,而这个时候的股价已经以跳水的姿态一路跌倒了139,140的关卡也失守了,眼下股价已经下跌了132%,堪称灾难。 The short-sellers are still grasping the opportunity to jog the admission, this simply is the grand feast that comes to naught to throw, the only regret is the Sina tray is too small, monk many meat were few, cannot have feast. 做空者还在抓紧机会跑步入场,这简直就是一场空投的盛宴,唯一的遗憾是新浪盘子太小,僧多肉少,吃不了一顿大餐。 Li Mu also paid attention to the Sina present stock price, he does not understand to speculate in the stock market, repertoire of not too clear NASDAQ, but the Sina stock price fell 132% not to make him very surprised all of a sudden actually, how Li Mu although without has understood the US stock market, but had understood the trends of some US (America) high-tech corporations, know NASDAQ absolutely would have no views of 10% raising limit and circuit breaker, in his mind, Twitter R of Sina Weibo (Micro Blog) imitation had the odd-numbered days to reach as high as 27% decline ranges, under special circumstances, a stock price day of US stock market fell suddenly 30% is not the major problem, therefore in Li Mu, the Sina stock price has not fallen to arrive.. 李牧也关注了新浪眼下的股价,他不太懂炒股,也不太清楚纳斯达克的套路,不过新浪股价一下子跌了132%倒是也没有让他很惊讶,李牧虽然没怎么了解过美股,但是了解过一些美国高科技企业的动向,知道纳斯达克根本就没有10%涨停板与跌停板的说法,在他印象中,新浪微博模仿的twitter曾经就有过单日高达27%的跌幅,在特殊情况下,美股的公司股价一天暴跌30%也不是什么大问题,所以在李牧眼里,新浪的股价还没有跌到位。 1 : 00 am time, the Sina stock price has fallen to breaking 130 important passes, fell 128, set the record of the entire 20% decline ranges. 凌晨 1 点的时候,新浪的股价已经跌到破了130的关口,跌到了128,创下了整整20%的跌幅。 NASDAQ closing time at next morning 4 points, Li Mu has not been waiting again performance that looks at the Sina stock price, but chose went to bed to sleep. 纳斯达克收盘时间在次日凌晨的四点,李牧没有再等着看新浪股价的表现,而是选择了上床睡觉。 4 : 00 am, NASDAQ closes, the Sina stock price fell 122 USD, the decline range about 24%! 凌晨 4 点,纳斯达克收盘,新浪股价跌到了122美元,跌幅将近24%！ The stock price decline range, is almost flat with the decline range of current capacity! 股价的跌幅,和流量的跌幅几乎持平！ Thus it can be seen, capital market now to the Sina estimate value, almost completely centralized on Portal website. 由此可见,资本市场现在对新浪的估值,几乎全部都集中在了门户网站上。 But slump of Sina stock price, lets NetEase and Sohu stock price rises suddenly, two website increases are close to 10%, the reason is also very simple, Muye Science and Technology shielded Sina, got down the current capacity that to give other Portal from Sina there truncation on divergence naturally, therefore NetEase and Sohu became the most direct beneficiary of this event. 而新浪股价的暴跌,让网易和搜狐的股价暴涨,两家网站的涨幅都接近10%,原因也很简单,牧野科技屏蔽了新浪,从新浪那里截下来的流量就自然而然的分流给了其他门户,所以网易和搜狐成了这次事件的最直接的受益者。 Sina, NetEase and Sohu these three in the Portal website present market value not over 100 million dollars that NASDAQ goes on the market, touched hundred million USD thresholds hopefully just started the wireless business Sina, but Sina projects on the pre-liberation at present all of a sudden, the loss is serious. 新浪、网易、搜狐这三个同在纳斯达克上市的门户网站眼下的市值都没有超过一亿美金,原本最有希望触及一亿美元门槛的就是刚开始无线业务的新浪了,但是眼下新浪一下子被打到解放前,损失惨重。 No one has thought, the Muye Science and Technology influence went to this situation unexpectedly, moreover Sina stock price big diving, navigation website that before letting the internet industry carefully examined them , unable to take a liking to truly earnestly, after Hao123 and YY123 23 conformity, it to the influence of domestic pc website pattern was really powerful, so, was its value possibly only the trivial advertising expenditure of current capacity bring? Its true value is, if later website of various classes want to make the current capacity, must look for YY123 23 to buy the position, to buy the current capacity, even if big website, if not spend, perhaps 23 the position and weight on YY123 will still be greatly affected, isn't Sina a clear example? 谁都没有想到,牧野科技的影响力竟然达到了这种地步,而且新浪股价的大跳水,也让互联网行业真正认真审视起了他们以前瞧不上的导航网站,hao123和yy123整合之后,它对国内的pc网站格局的影响力实在是太强大了,如此看来,它的价值怎么可能只是流量带来的区区广告费？它的真正价值是,以后各门类的网站如果想要做流量,都得找yy123花钱买位置、买流量,就算是大网站,如果不花钱,恐怕在yy123上的位置和权重也会受到极大影响,新浪不就是个明显的例子吗？ At this time, everyone knows, YY123 that 23 they have despised, blocked the throat of domestic pc website development unexpectedly, became in Muye Science and Technology a new trump card, the sign in Muye Science and Technology were not many, but almost stretch/open stretch/open were the trump card, the giant pattern has decided. 这个时候,大家才知道,他们一直鄙视的yy123,竟然扼住了国内pc网站发展的咽喉,成了牧野科技手里一张新的王牌,牧野科技手里的牌不多,但是几乎张张都是王牌,巨头格局已定。 No company dares to despise Muye Science and Technology again, to them, after Muye Science and Technology , even if does is simple and does not have the matter of technique content again, they do not dare to suspect that absolutely the Muye Science and Technology innovation capabilities, the YY123 23 transformations have made them realize the Muye Science and Technology fearful place thoroughly. 再没有一家公司敢轻视牧野科技,对他们来说,牧野科技以后就算是做再简单、再没有技术含量的事情,他们也绝对不敢怀疑牧野科技的创新能力,yy123的蜕变已经让他们彻底意识到了牧野科技的可怕之处。 But at present most can realize this point, belonged to Sina. 而眼下最能体会这一点的,非新浪莫属了。 Has returned to Li Xingping of Guandong also to realize at this moment, oneself by the Muye Science and Technology pit. 已经返回粤省的李兴评此刻也意识到,自己被牧野科技坑了。 Muye Science and Technology attains Hao123 to integrate rapidly, and quickest speed starts the blockade to Sina, saw them to plan that sufficiently this matter, they should be have been eyeing, at all not like they displayed indifferently to Hao123, but oneself happen to jumped in Muye Science and Technology to dig the good trap, was threatened and bribed by Muye Science and Technology, finally sold to them Hao123 at a white vegetable price, making them rule the navigation website market all of a sudden thoroughly. 牧野科技一拿到hao123就迅速进行整合,并且最快速度对新浪发动封锁,足以见得他们早就已经在打算这件事情了,他们对hao123应该是垂涎已久,根本不像他们表现的那样无所谓,而自己则正好跳进了牧野科技挖好的陷阱,被牧野科技威胁利诱,最终以一个白菜价把hao123卖给了他们,让他们一下子彻底统治了导航网站市场。 However Li Xingping sighed when also does not have any means that he did not regret, because he knows, if oneself did not sell to Muye Science and Technology Hao123, by repertoire that Muye Science and Technology works, will certainly run over oneself, but is the issue of duration. 不过李兴评感叹之余也没有任何办法,他并不后悔,因为他知道,如果自己不把hao123卖给牧野科技,以牧野科技做事情的套路,也一定会把自己压死,只不过是时间长短的问题。 ...... …… Next day, impatient Sina CEO sends out the request of meeting to Muye Science and Technology frequently, but Li Mu has not given any response as before, he does not care about Sina to suffer the big loss now completely, because he makes the adjustment in oneself product system from beginning to end, even if Sina moves the backer, to move the relations, Li Mu was not worried, because Muye Science and Technology also has Chen Ze. 翌日,心急火燎的新浪ceo频繁向牧野科技发出会面的请求,但是李牧依旧没有给予任何回应,他现在完全不在乎新浪遭受了多大损失,因为他至始至终都只是在自己的产品体系里做调整,就算是新浪搬靠山、动关系,李牧也并不担心,因为牧野科技还有陈泽在。 Li Mu arrives at the Taobao net preparation and Liu Qiangdong very early in the morning studies summer the Brand Day activity plan together, in the Liu Qiangdong office, had research Liu Qiangdong to brief a situation of NASDAQ to the US stock market to Li Mu very much probably, made certain analysis to the Sina stock price, he thought that the Sina current capacity completely did not grasp in Muye Science and Technology, therefore the Sina stock price will not be restrained Muye Science and Technology completely, the market will recognize that the Sina stock price has bottomed, the short-seller odd-numbered days will get such big interests, the stock price bottom will certainly start to level, but the market speculator will also seize this opportunity to stress a wave rising trend again, therefore NASDAQ opens tonight again, The Sina stock price should rebound. 李牧一大早来到淘宝网准备和刘镪东一起研究暑期品牌日的活动方案,在刘镪东的办公室里,对美股很有研究的刘镪东给李牧大概介绍了一下纳斯达克的情况,也对新浪股价做出了一定的分析,他觉得新浪的流量不是完全掌握在牧野科技手里,所以新浪的股价也不完全受制于牧野科技,市场会认定新浪的股价已经触底,做空者单日获得这么大的利益,股价触底一定会开始平仓,而市场投机者也会抓住这个机会再抓一波涨势,所以今天晚上纳斯达克再开盘,新浪的股价应该会有所反弹。 Li Mu asked that his Sina stock price has big rebound opportunity, Liu Qiangdong did not estimate over 5%, immediately is also the Li Mu analysis said: „If Muye Science and Technology does not relieve the shield, then the new beginning of Sina stock price basically should be able to decide in the prices of 20% decline ranges, in the future, Muye Science and Technology will not have the means to press the Sina stock price again downward, only if other Muye Science and Technology had in view of the Sina new movement comes out, for example YY Portal, once will get online, the Sina stock price will definitely also fall again, but other most time, the Sina stock price will be separated from the Muye Science and Technology influence temporarily.” 李牧问他新浪股价有多大反弹机会,刘镪东预计不超过5%,随即又为李牧分析道:“如果牧野科技不解除屏蔽,那么新浪股价的新起点基本上应该可以定在20%跌幅的价位上,再往后,牧野科技也没办法把新浪的股价再往下压,除非等牧野科技有针对新浪的新动作出来,比如yy门户一旦上线,新浪的股价肯定还会再跌,而其他的大多数时间,新浪的股价都会暂时脱离牧野科技影响。” Li Mu said: „If we had known I shorted the Sina stock ahead of time.” 李牧说:“早知道我提前做空新浪股票了。” Liu Qiangdong said with a smile: „He altogether several Ten Million USD market values, how much money circulated the stock not to have, can you be able to take a liking?” 刘镪东笑道:“他一共才几千万美元的市值,流通股票就更没多少钱了,你能瞧得上吗？” Li Mu laughs, said: „Cannot take a liking.” 李牧哈哈一笑,说:“瞧不上。” Liu Qiangdong said: „We chatted summer the Brand Day matter!” 刘镪东说:“咱们还是聊一聊暑期品牌日的事吧！” Li Mu said with a smile: „How Brand Day matter decided you first to say your idea specifically.” 李牧笑道:“品牌日的事情具体怎么定你先说说你的想法。” Liu Qiangdong nods, said: „General idea bases on the time limit to rush to purchase, I prepared to decide the time on July 10, was the second day that the national college entrance examination ended, you thought that this time the point did have the issue?” 刘镪东点点头,说:“大概的想法还是基于限时抢购,我准备把时间定在7月10日,也就是全国高考结束的第二天,你觉得这个时间点有没有问题？” This year is the last year in July the college entrance examination, with the provinces and cities college entrance examination time of national volume is in July 7, 8 th, the place volume is July 7, 8 and No. 9 three days, since 2003, the college entrance examination time met the whole one month ahead of schedule, fixed in June 7, 8 and 9 three days. 今年是最后一年在7月高考,采用全国卷的省市高考时间是7月七、八号,地方卷是7月的七、八、九号三天,2003年起,高考时间会整体提前一个月,固定在6月七、八、九三天。 July 10 this day the national volume or the place volume finished, had taken summer vacation to university almost all students from the elementary school at this time, therefore made summer Brand Day is quite appropriate at this time, but time hasty a point, at present already in late June, the activity plan and prepares to require the time, preheating also required the time, therefore Li Mu will favor will push the time slightly in the future. 7月10号这天无论是全国卷还是地方卷都结束了,从小学到大学几乎所有的学生这个时候都已经放暑假了,所以在这个时候做暑期品牌日还是比较合适的,不过时间仓促了一点,眼下已经六月下旬,活动策划和准备需要时间,预热也需要时间,所以李牧倾向于把时间稍微往后推一推。 Liu Qiangdong asked Li Mu: „Your problem when?” 刘镪东问李牧:“你想定在什么时间？” Li Mu said: „Decides in mid to late July, at that time the college entrance examination score also came out, in accurate university regarding city said since birth, perhaps their at the appointed time urgent matters buy a cell phone, when the time comes can specifically aim at these graduating students to launch a cell phone promotion.” 李牧说:“定在7月中下旬吧,那个时候高考分数也出来了,对于城市里的准大学生来说,他们到时的当务之急恐怕就是买一台手机,到时候可以专门针对这些应届毕业生推出一个手机促销活动。” Liu Qiangdong nods, said: „That decided on July 23, that time college entrance examination score should come out.” 刘镪东点了点头,说:“那就定在7月23号吧,那个时候的高考分数应该都已经出来了。” Li Mu said: „For these days you must make the best use of the time to communicate with the brand side, after the activity regulation arranges, page completes, must start to do preheating, you must first determine commodity as well as activity that price participate in the Brand Day event, preheating time comes the mystery slightly, for example a present selling price over 2000 Yuan cell phones, the brand side wants the price concession is quite powerful, we can the foreign propaganda be the 1 x 00 Yuan, this x is the unknown, we did not announce temporarily, to know when the time comes is concrete is what price, pays attention to our activities.” 李牧说:“这几天你就得抓紧时间跟品牌方沟通,活动细则定好、页面做好之后,就要开始做预热了,你一定得先确定参与品牌日活动的商品以及活动价格,预热的时候稍微来一点神秘感,比如一台现在售价在2000元以上的手机,品牌方只要价格优惠比较给力,我们就可以对外宣传为1x00元,这个x是未知数,我们暂不公布,如果想知道到时候具体是什么价格,就关注我们的活动。” Liu Qiangdong said: „Understands that your meaning, I determined as soon as possible these links.” 刘镪东说:“明白你的意思了,我尽快把这些环节确定下来。” Li Mu said: „Also, we can do one to sell in advance, regardless of the user buys anything, so long as he delivers in advance 50 Yuan advance payment ahead of time, when the activity day on the same day, these 50 Yuan advance payment can work as 100 Yuan use, but if he does not buy when the time comes, these 50 Yuan do not do to return.” 李牧说:“还有,咱们可以搞一个预售,无论用户买什么,只要他提前预交50元定金,等到活动日当天,这50元定金就可以当100元使用,但是如果到时候他不买,这50元就不做退还。” Liu Qiangdong hears this saying, the brow slightly pressed, stares at Li Mu to ask him: „Your brain how long...... how what move of you can think?” 刘镪东听到这话,眉头微蹙,盯着李牧问他:“你脑子怎么长的……怎么什么招你都能想得出来？” Li Mu said with a smile: „Deductive thinking, we must first be clear about our goal, our goals were in Brand Day on the same day the improvement sales volume as far as possible, therefore we now if wants completely all means to guarantee the sales volume, the advance payment was the one way of improvement sales volume, so long as the user paid the advance payment, the possibility that he reneged greatly will reduce, when the time comes the cost of this part, you found the way to pass the burden to the manufacturer head part, passed the burden to consumer head part of that's alright again, the price that for example the factory gave was 900, then we to be pulled down by the manufacturer on want the means to 880, then mentioned 930 in the selling price, end-user actual by. 880 price deals, reason that because the advance payment does not draw back, the turnover will be more than 900 promotion.” 李牧笑道:“发散思维嘛,我们首先要明确自己的目标,我们的目标是在品牌日当天尽可能的提升销量,所以我们现在就要想尽一切办法来保证销量,定金就是提升销量的一种方式,用户只要付了定金,他变卦的可能性就会大大降低,到时候这部分的成本,你想办法转嫁到厂商头上一部分,再转嫁到消费者头上一部分就行,比如原本厂家给的价格是900,那我们就想办法让厂商压低到880,然后在售价上提到930,最终用户实际还是以880的价格成交,但是因为定金不退的原因,成交量会比900提升很多。” Liu Qiangdong hear of repetitive nods: „I take you, is longer with the time that you worked together as colleagues, I more felt oneself were useless.” 刘镪东听的连连点头:“我真是服了你了,跟你共事的时间越长,我越觉得自己没用。” Li Mu said with a smile: „Do not say, you do not have e-Commerce to come up the frequency-switching now completely, when you fully adapted to this industry, ponders, works and views the issue in view of internet, your strength is not necessarily worse than me.” 李牧笑道:“别这么说,你现在是还没有完全把频率切换到电子商务上来,等你完全适应了这个行业,思考、做事、看问题都从互联网角度出发,那你的实力未必就比我差。” Liu Qiangdong said with a laugh: „Also had any good idea not to cover-up regarding the summer brand, said.” 刘镪东笑着说:“对于暑期品牌还有什么好想法就别藏着掖着了,都说出来吧。” Li Mu said with a smile: „The method of operation has, but does not need to take to use one time.” 李牧笑道:“运营的方法有很多,但不一定要一次性都拿出来用。” Liu Qiangdong said unbearably anxiously: „You first told me, making me study, your wonderful ideas, I digest also need some time.” 刘镪东急不可耐的说:“你先跟我说说,让我学习学习,你那些奇思妙想,我消化也需要一段时间。” Li Mu said with a smile: „Good, I said again a point presses the bottom the thing, but you must grasp, did not want to cause, to make others one time study.” 李牧笑道:“好吧,那我就再说一点压箱底的东西,不过你得自己把握好,不要一次性都使出来、让别人学去了。” Liu Qiangdong nods again and again, urged: „Do not keep guessing.” 刘镪东连连点头,催促道:“你就别卖关子了。” Li Mu said with a smile: „In the future we can engage in the coupon activity, for example the tcl cell phone works with us, we bestow to all Taobao user tcl cell phones fully 1000 reduce 100 coupons, in the backstage to a Taobao customer development card ticket package of small functions of wallet or, he can see own coupon in inside directly, as the matter stands, how many people you think because of this ticket, but heart movement, how many did not prepare to buy the person of cell phone, because this ticket moved the thoughts of buying the cell phone, how many prepared to buy the people of other brand cell phones, because of this ticket, but then bought the tcl cell phone? To tcl, a price surpasses 1000 Yuan cell phone, the profit is far higher than 100 Yuan absolutely, in this can also leave dozens Yuan premium spaces to them let alone, further reduces their preferential costs.” 李牧笑道:“未来我们可以做优惠券活动,比如tcl手机跟咱们合作,我们就赠送给所有淘宝用户一张tcl手机满1000减100的优惠券,在后台给淘宝用户开发一个钱包或者卡券包的小功能,他可以直接在里面看到自己的优惠券,这样一来,你想一想多少人会因为这张券而心动,多少原本不准备买手机的人,会因为这张券动了买手机的心思、多少原本准备买其他品牌手机的人,因为这张券而转而买了tcl的手机？对tcl来说,一部价格超过1000元的手机,利润绝对远高于100元,更何况这里面还可以给他们留几十块钱的溢价空间,进一步缩小他们的优惠成本。” Liu Qiangdong eye one bright, said: „Coupon thing, if really does, in the future many aspects can be useful!” 刘镪东眼睛一亮,说:“优惠券这个东西,如果真做的话,将来很多方面都可以用得上啊！” ... ...