RINAPE :: Volume #3

#255: Paranoia

Everyone knows that now analyzes too early, both businesses did not have the profitability, needs the continuous cash support, must do truly, attains Series B rounds calmly and steadily, then after Series B rounds attains, starts to make a connection with two businesses the profit points, enabling these two businesses to have the income, once starts to make the earning, can be higher in the value of capital market, when the time comes, both take advantage of opportunity again the resolution, Muye Science and Technology is slowest can also complete the listing in 3-4 years, the Easy Music Network independent listing is not the dream, when the time comes is two heavy fruits, safe. 谁都知道现在拆分为时过早,两个业务都还没有盈利能力,都还需要持续不断的现金支撑,现在真正要做的,是安安稳稳拿到b轮,然后在b轮拿到之后,就开始打通两个业务的赢利点,让这两个业务可以有收入,一旦开始做营收,在资本市场的价值就能更高一些,到时候,两者再顺势拆分,牧野科技最慢也能三四完成上市,易听网独立上市也不是梦想,到时候是两份沉甸甸的果实,稳妥的很。 However, the Li Mu request analyzes at the present, this time choice is really is inappropriate, such big movement, such adventurous action, will let the capital loses the confidence to Muye Science and Technology and secret helmsman, once the investor loses the confidence, that may really be dangerous, the undertaking most fears is the funding chain is cut off, does not make money importantly, will have the capital to favor will accompany you to shoulder together, if the capital will tighten, the funding chain break, that can only the bankruptcy. 但是,李牧要求在现在拆分,这个时机选择的就实在是太不恰当了,这么大的动作,这么冒险的举措,会让资本对牧野科技以及幕后的掌舵人失去信心,一旦投资人失去信心,那可就真危险了,创业最怕的就是资金链断掉,不赚钱不要紧,有资本看好会陪你一起扛,但一旦资本收紧,资金链断裂,那就只能破产倒闭了。 Chief Li contacts internet a group of people as the home early, when facing Li Mu this mentality, many also understanding. 李总作为国内最早接触互联网的一批人,在面对李牧这种心态的时候,多少也有些理解。 In his opinion, young people, high-spirited, has strength that will never concede, but, sometimes this strength is the good deed, sometimes was the misdemeanor, once choice of direction mistake, took a say/way to arrive black, that was must trip and fall. 在他看来,年轻人嘛,意气风发,有股永不服输的劲头,但是,有些时候这种劲头是好事,有些时候就是坏事了,一旦方向选择错误,又非要一条道走到黑,那是要摔跟头的。 Therefore, Chief Li tactful said to Li Mu with the tone of seasoned person: „Resolution is a very good idea, but analyzes now slightly early, if really wants to analyze, the patience on several months, after Series B rounds finances to be successful, analyzes is not late. When the time comes deceives to embark more capital. Once you analyze. They will also try are the development of two companies provide the boost.” 于是,李总委婉的用过来人的语气对李牧说:“拆分是一个非常好的想法,但是现在拆分只是稍微早了一些,如果真想拆分,耐心等上几个月,b轮融资成功之后再拆分也不迟。到时候把更多的资本骗上船。一旦你拆分。他们也会尽全力为两个公司的发展提供助力。” Li Mu knew in the heart the opposite party said is very critical, but since wants acting cool, must install, therefore he contemptuous snort/hum smiles one, said: „After Series B rounds financing, analyzed late, now analyzes made the concept the time, we must first analyze and make a relatively mature condition two concepts, then melted Series B rounds with higher financing.” 李牧心知对方说的很中肯,但既然要装逼,就必须要装到底,于是他略带轻蔑的哼笑一声,说:“b轮融资之后再拆分就晚了,现在正是拆分做概念的时候,我们要先拆分、把两个概念做出一个比较成熟的状态,然后再用更高的融资去融b轮。” Chief Li shakes the head: „This is very difficult to be accepted. Once analyzes, the capital side will be disappointed about you.” 李总摇了摇头:“这样很难行得通的。一旦拆分,资本方会对你失望的。” Li Mu said with a smile: „I did not fear that to analyzing disappointed the capital side is to lack the foresight and insight, to this capital side, I do not want to work with them, the slang said that different is not the stratagem, in the future finances, I must be able to completely understand the capital communication of my intention with these.” 李牧笑道:“我不怕啊,会对拆分失望的资本方都是缺乏远见和洞察力的,对这种资本方,我也不想跟他们合作,俗话说道不同不相为谋,将来融资,我必然要和那些能看透我意图的资本沟通。” The Chief Li complexion is somewhat ugly, the meanings of some Li Mu this saying indirect insults, do not support him to analyze. Is lacks the foresight and insight, he explicitly expressed a moment ago does not support. Isn't this hits the face livingly? 李总的脸色有些难看,李牧这话有些指桑骂槐的意思,不支持他拆分的。就是缺乏远见和洞察力的,他刚才就明确表示了不支持。这不是活生生打脸吗？ Tan Yaocheng also thought that Li Mu was somewhat excessive, clears throat, says: „The opinion that Li Mu, to be honest, Chief Li gives is critical, is objective, now the Easy Music Network estimate value can achieve 3-4 in the capital market hundred million, if goes astray one step before Series B rounds, once the capital does not favor, the estimate value has the possibility big diving, the company of oneself laborious operation, do you want it to destroy in your?” 谭耀成也觉得李牧有些过分了,清了清嗓子,开口说:“李牧,说实话,李总给的意见非常中肯,也非常客观,现在易听网的估值在资本市场上能做到三四亿了,要是在b轮之前走错一步,资本方一旦不看好,估值就有可能大跳水,自己辛辛苦苦经营的公司,你愿意它毁在自己手上吗？” Li Mu frowns: „Director Tan your what meaning? My own company, how I do am my matter, I said a moment ago, today is only transmits, no matter you do approve , the resolution is the matter of being settled, said again, you have not seen my follow-up development project, what worries to draw the conclusion to make?” 李牧皱起眉头:“谭总你什么意思？我自己的公司,我怎么做是我的事情,我刚才就说了,今天只是来传达,不管你们赞不赞同,拆分都是板上钉钉的事情,再说,你还没有看到我后续的发展规划,这么着急下定论做什么？” Tan Yaocheng said awkwardly: „I do not deny you, I reminded, everyone was the cooperation, was the friend.” 谭耀成略带尴尬的说:“我不是要否定你,我只是提个醒嘛,大家都是合作关系,又是朋友。” Chief Li the expression some are not quite attractive at this time, a finger table, opens the mouth saying: „Ok, we first let us not make these useless arguments, first has a look at the follow-up development project.” 李总此时表情已经有些不太好看,手指头点点桌子,开口道:“行了,咱们先别做这些没用的争论,先看看后续的发展规划吧。” Li Mu nods, the finger raps on the keyboard, immediately after entering Easy Music Network analyzed the development project. 李牧点了点头,手指在键盘上敲击一下,立刻进入了易听网拆分后的发展规划。 Li Mu in this sector, told in detail oneself favoring to mp3 market, this point almost and Chief Li happens to hold the same view. 李牧在这个版块,详细讲述了自己对mp3市场的看好,这一点几乎和李总不谋而合。 Chief Li has actually started to conspire the mp3 business this year, is only a short time is not firm, the main worry is the copyright issue, he comes back from US (America), did for several years in US (America) Silicon Valley, knows that US (America) is actually severe to the intellectual property protection, does not take the authorization to make mp3 download(ing) the pattern randomly, if must be punished in US (America) to losing everything must end up in prison. 李总其实今年就已经开始密谋mp3业务了,只是一时半会还没有非常坚定,最主要的担心就是版权问题,他是从美国回来的,在美国硅谷做了好几年,知道美国对知识产权保护究竟有多么严苛,不拿授权就乱做mp3下载的这个模式,如果在美国是要被罚到倾家荡产还要锒铛入狱的。 However, in he studies proportional relationship matter between the costs of law violation and illegal benefits, Easy Music Network appears, with acted to prove personal the present truly does not have the explicit provision of law to be able to control it, the record company in Europe and US was impossible to come to China with it to bring a lawsuit, because the home did not attach great importance to this, used energy Para's running over finally is also the fate of losing a lawsuit, but the domestic record company did not have the means to bring a lawsuit with it, the bringing a lawsuit time of did not say long, this matter attorney has the most important thing is surveyed, used energy to file a lawsuit, the result cannot attain several 10.000 Yuan compensations, moreover frequently on takes 1-2 years. 但是,就在他研究违法成本与违法利益之间的比例关系事,易听网横空出世,用切身行动证明了现在确实没有明确的法律条文能够管得了它,欧美的唱片公司不可能来华跟它打官司,因为国内对这一块并不重视,费劲巴拉的跑过来最后也是败诉的下场,而国内的唱片公司也没办法跟它打官司,打起官司来时间漫长不说,最重要的是这种事情律师测算过,费劲打一场官司,结果拿不到几万块钱赔偿,而且动辄就要1-2。 Chief Li consulted many specialties to dispute the stick afterward specially, draws a clear conclusion is: The law has not dared to hold the beginning now temporarily. 李总后来专门咨询过许多专业讼棍,得出一个明确的结论就是:法律现在暂时还不敢开先河。 The reason is very simple, domestic pirating are too really many, in the small city, except for the book of New China Bookstore is the genuine, other bookstore almost genuine books could not find, the magnetic tape, cd and recording tape and disc are also same, the pirating proportion surpasses 90%, now not explicit legal support, if which court dares to hold the beginning, likely draws fire to oneself to oneself brings the trouble. 原因很简单,国内盗版实在太多,在小城市,除了新华书店的书是正版,其他的书店几乎一本正版书都找不到,磁带、cd、录像带、光碟也是一样,盗版占比超过90%,现在没有明确的法律支撑,如果哪个法院敢开先河,很可能引火烧身给自己带来麻烦。 Therefore, recently Chief Li had also been clear about a point in Baidu, no matter what, must start next year mp3, even if Baidu has thrown Muye Science and Technology, but cannot give up own mp3 search and download(ing) market, the cost of mp3 hardware is getting more and more low, popular to expand unceasingly, in the future certainly will be mp3 and world of digital music, when the time comes the download(ing) demand on internet will certainly increase sharply, if cannot complete the layout before then ahead of time, when the time comes can die will be very miserable! 所以,最近李总也已经在百度内部明确了一点,不管怎么样,明年一定要上马mp3,即便百度已经投了牧野科技,但也绝不能放弃自己的mp3搜索及下载市场,mp3硬件的成本越来越低、普及度已经不断在扩大,未来一定是mp3、数字音乐的天下,到时候互联网上的下载需求量一定会激增,如果在此之前没能提前做好布局,到时候一定会死的很惨！ Tieba (Post It) makes, Sina, NetEase, Shanda and Tencent to do, Chief Li does not feel irritable, because everyone technique industry studies, what Tieba (Post It) plays is extremely the forum of Jane/simple principle, Sina NetEase is Portal, Shanda is Online Games and Tencent is immediate Instant Messenger, what Baidu does is the search, everyone everyone minds their own business, does the hotel, not possible with buying clothes becomes the enemy, but mp3 was different, mp3 although is the music audition demand, but its front is representing the huge mp3 search, future music audition amateur as well as mp3 hardware user, certainly after thinking of some song, first. Searches this song, then found the download(ing) address, arrives at the local area or in its download(ing) the hardware. 贴吧做起来、新浪、网易、盛大、腾讯做起来,李总都不感觉急躁,因为大家术业有专攻,贴吧玩的是极简主义的论坛,新浪网易是门户,盛大是网游、腾讯是即时通讯,百度做的是搜索,大家井水不犯河水,干饭店的,不可能跟买衣服的成为对头,但是mp3就不一样了,mp3虽然是音乐试听需求,但它的前端则代表着巨大的mp3搜索量,未来的音乐试听爱好者以及mp3硬件使用者,一定是在想到某首歌之后,先去搜索这首歌,然后找到下载地址,把它下载到本地或者硬件中去。 The although mp3 search is only part of search, but it is also searches! 虽然mp3搜索只是搜索的一部分,但它也是搜索啊！ Does the hotel with not buying the death of clothes will knock, but with selling earlier becoming enemies, on the one hand he also wants to make earlier this money, on the other hand, will sell earlier too well, unavoidably some people will work as the staple food it, will eat several steamed stuffed bun cashing cashing early late, the potential benefit of hotel is somewhat affected. 干饭店的不会跟买衣服的死磕,但是会跟卖早点的结仇,一方面他也想赚早点这份钱,另一方面,早点卖得太好,难免有人把它当主食,早中晚都吃几个包子兑付兑付,饭店的潜在利益多少会受到影响。 Now looks at favoring of Li Mu to mp3 market again, even asserted that the mp3 search can account for web search over 20%, Chief Li somewhat could not sit still, if really whatever he makes in a big way Easy Music Network, Baidu will start the mp3 search certainly to receive very tremendous impact next year, although Easy Music Network Baidu also has the stock, but that are 10% a yarn? The significance is not big! The core business must grasp in own is good! Even if oneself do not sell the breakfast personally, must as far as possible selling earlier person gathers, sells the breakfast in own shop front , receives itself to control with in -depth cooperation. 现在再看李牧对mp3市场的看好,甚至断言mp3搜索会占到网络搜索的20%以上,李总有些坐不住了,如果真的任由他把易听网做大,百度明年上马mp3搜索一定会受很大的影响,虽说易听网百度也有股份,可是那10%算个毛线？意义不大啊！核心业务一定要掌握在自己手里才行啊！就算自己不亲自卖早点,也要尽可能把卖早点的人招揽过来,在自己的店面里卖早点,和自己深度合作、受自己掌控。 Li Mu didn't expect, a forecast of mp3 prospect, has made Chief Li somewhat unable to sit still. 李牧没想到,一个mp3前景的展望,就已经让李总有些坐不住了。 But Li Mu following in view of the plan of mp3, makes Chief Li feel that the thick sense of crisis, between Li Mu's, really favored mp3, the key is also thinks with him same...... 而李牧后续针对mp3的规划,也让李总感觉到了浓浓的危机感,李牧的字里行间,实在是太看好mp3了,关键是自己也跟他想的一样…… Has a light sadness listens to Li Mu to introduce mp3, Li Mu coughs two, clears throat to drink water, started the today's true climax. 怀揣着一种淡淡的忧伤听李牧把mp3介绍完,李牧咳嗽两声,清清嗓子喝口水,开始了今天真正的重头戏。 „Establishes own navigation website to be imminent!” “建立一个属于自己的导航网站已经迫在眉睫！” „navigation website is future 70% by the Browsing people Browsing first stand, is the current capacity overlord in internet world!” “导航网站是未来70%以上网民上网的第一站,是互联网世界的流量霸主！” „Makes big navigation website, to deep cut the navigation website potential, will press firmly between the fingers the life of entire internet world!” “做大导航网站、深挖导航网站的潜力,将捏住整个互联网世界的命脉！” „Increases funding and sells the advertisement, is used to establish an own guidance station overwhelming majority energy, is used to give the guidance station improvement current capacity and influence overwhelming majority funds, must surpass Hao123 in 2002!” “增资、卖广告,把绝大部分的精力用来建立一个自己的导航站,然后再把绝大部分的资金用来给导航站提升流量和影响力,务必要在2002年赶超hao1！” With favoring mp3, Li Mu with the attitude that one type nearly renounces, displayed itself to the navigation website unequalled zeal. 和看好mp3一样,李牧用一种近乎决绝的态度,表现出了自己对导航网站无与伦比的热忱。 The brow of Chief Li wrinkles tightly, in his eyes, Li Mu became an extreme paranoia. 李总的眉头皱得更紧,在他的眼里,李牧成了一个极端的偏执狂。 Previously, Li Mu favored mp3 extremely, making him feel that next year mp3 plan had the serious crisis ; Now, Li Mu favors mp3 extremely, makes him feel Muye Science and Technology, once analyzes, Tieba (Post It) will be implicated by his navigation website plan lethal. 先前,李牧极其看好mp3,让他感觉到明年的mp3计划有了严重的危机;现在,李牧又极其看好mp3,又让他感觉到牧野科技一旦拆分,贴吧会被他的导航网站计划拖累致死。 internet is fastidious about the user experience the place, selling the advertisement is not, but once the advertisement starts to have the influence on the normal use of user, the user will have the resistance also to cause certain user outflow inevitably, Li Mu favors the guidance station now, between the lines was one loses everything and be at cost of the life also to do the meaning of navigation website, when the time comes he worried Li Mu will squeeze ahead of time Tieba (Post It) all values, kill the goose that lays the golden eggs development navigation website. 互联网是讲究用户体验的地方,卖广告不是不可以,可一旦广告开始对用户的正常使用造成影响,用户就势必会有抵触情绪并且引起一定的用户流失,李牧现在又这么看好导航站,字里行间都是一副砸锅卖铁、拼了老命也要干好导航网站的意思,到时候他担心李牧会把贴吧所有的价值都提前压榨出来,杀鸡取卵的发展导航网站。 The biggest problem is, he does not favor navigation website. 最大的问题关键是,他并不看好导航网站。 In his opinion, navigation website is one does not have the technique content, only to conform to internet to develop initial and product of intermediate shape, an city extremely sketchy map, just entered to this city probably, or will need one set to this city not too familiar person, gives his primary need to make certain direction, may work as the user is familiar after the city, he naturally no longer needs this product, but the when user viscosity and average use of this product the long low pity, user average Browsing one hour, stayed in Hao123 cannot surpass for 30 seconds, Li Mu said that deep cut the navigation website potential, which its had. What deep potential can be for the excavation?( To be continued.) 在他看来,导航网站就是一个没有技术含量、只符合互联网发展初、中期形态的产物,就好像一个城市极其粗略的地图,刚进入到这个城市,或者对这个城市不太熟悉的人会需要一套,给他的基本需求做一定指引,可当用户对城市熟悉之后,他自然不再需要这种产品,而这种产品的用户粘度和平均使用时长低的可怜,用户平均上网一个小时,在hao1停留不会超过三十秒,李牧说深挖导航网站的潜力,它哪有什么深度潜力可供挖掘？(未完待续。)
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