RINAPE :: Volume #15

#1439: The upstream from upstream blocks the upstream

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On airplane, Li Mu to Elon Musk planned the overall way of electric automobile project. 飞机上,李牧给埃隆・马斯克规划了电动汽车项目的整体路径。 The first step, Li Mu jointly invests five Ten Million USD with him at 7 : 3 proportion, establishes a new energy automobile company, five Ten Million USD part is used to purchase him that R & D team that follows up, must company and achievement patent belt/bring team takes completely, remaining serves as the research and development funds of this team ; 第一步,李牧与他以7:3的比例共同投资五千万美元,成立一家新能源汽车公司,五千万美元的一部分用来收购他正在跟进的那个研发团队,要连公司带成果专利带团队全部拿下,剩下的用作这个团队的研发经费; This team following key public relations direction, is the related technology of lithium battery group, next is the drive motor technology, again is the peripheral comprehensive technique ; 这个团队接下来的重点公关方向,就是锂电池组的相关技术,其次是驱动电机技术,再次是周边配套技术; Second, Elon Musk needs to establish a specialty to be responsible for the team of automobile research and development, begins to design the frame, chassis, security and air power new energy automobile, while conducts the deep understanding of China domestic several private automobile enterprises, prepares for the following purchase ; 第二,埃隆・马斯克需要成立一个专业负责汽车研发的团队,一边着手设计新能源汽车的框架、底盘、安全性以及空气动力性,一边对华夏国内几家民营汽车企业进行深入了解,为接下来的收购做准备; The purchase has two choices, one is the direct purchase domestic automobile enterprise, another is to purchase the production line of automobile enterprise, the fund mass of former need is quite big, if the fund naturally does not have the issue when the time comes abundantly, if the fund is not spacious, the choice purchase production line, many domestic car business present day does not feel better, the capacity does not have in the means full situation, several production lines extrude, sets aside a production line to come the realization also to have possibly, to the Li Mu this new energy automobile project, there is a low-end production line, compared with all has been much better from the beginning ; 收购有两种选择,一个是直接收购国内的汽车企业,再一个是收购汽车企业的生产线,前者需要的资金体量比较大,如果到时候资金充沛自然没问题,如果资金没那么宽绰,就选择收购生产线,很多国产车企现在的日子并不好过,产能没办法全开的情况下,几条生产线挤压一下,腾出一条生产线来变现也不是没可能,对李牧这个新能源汽车项目来说,有一条低端生产线,也比一切从头来过要好得多; Third, Li Mu ad hoc request Elon Musk when the operation new energy automobile project, must give up itself to compelling the blind pursue of standard, do not come up to make the unit price ten ten thousand USD ranks the new energy automobiles, makes that expensive/noble thing, at first 2-3 years except for selling to the acting cool suspect of internet industry, whom but can also sell to? 第三,李牧特别要求埃隆・马斯克在运作新能源汽车项目的时候,一定要放弃自己对逼格的盲目追求,不要一上来就造单价十万美元级别的新能源汽车,造那么贵的玩意,起初2-3年除了卖给互联网行业的装逼犯,还能卖给谁？ Elon Musk does not have the means to understand that produces the car(riage) is four wheels add sofa type „main road to Jane/simple” the idea, he thought that the automobile is like the launch vehicle, is the crystallization of Hyundai / modern industry achievement, must produce a good car(riage), has too many places to need to try hard, therefore he said to Li Mu: „Chief Li, I hope that our future new energy automobiles, is one outstanding, outstanding even is the epoch-making product, it even may from 0 accelerate to 60 miles in 3.5 seconds, its power is strong, travel is peaceful, the control intelligence, will feel the future feeling......” 埃隆・马斯克没办法理解造车是四个轮子加沙发这种“大道至简”的理念,他觉得汽车和运载火箭一样,是现代工业成就的结晶,要造一辆好车,有太多太多的地方需要努力,所以他对李牧说:“李总,我希望我们未来的新能源汽车,是一款优秀的、杰出的甚至是划时代的产品,它甚至有可能在3.5秒内就从0加速到60英里,它的动力强劲、行驶安静、操控智能,充满未来感……” Li Mu asked him: „You know the automobile enterprise that this world's most makes money which is?” 李牧问他:“你知道这世界上最赚钱的汽车企业是哪家吧？” „Knows.” Elon Musk said: „Toyota.” “知道啊。”埃隆・马斯克说:“丰田。” Li Mu nods, asked him: „Why does Toyota most make money? In this year's enterprise rank, his business income is lower than general and Ford, but net profit shi general dozens times, Ford net profit even is the negative number, masses although makes money very much, but the profit margin and net profit must be lower than Toyota, you thought why this is?” 李牧点点头,问他:“丰田为什么最赚钱？今年的企业排行里,他的营业收入比通用和福特都要低,但是净利润shi通用的几十倍,福特净利润甚至是负数,大众虽然很赚钱,但是利润率和净利润都要低于丰田,你觉得这是为什么？” Elon Musk shows a faint smile, said: „Chief Li, the operation of Toyota entire group is more flexible than smoothly other automobile enterprises, moreover is efficient, is also accurate to the capture of market demand, to the consumer, the product conjunction degree is high.” 埃隆・马斯克微微一笑,说:“李总,丰田整个集团的运作比其他汽车企业更加灵活顺畅,而且高效,对市场需求的捕捉也非常精准,对消费者来说,产品契合程度高。” Li Mu asked him: „You felt, you must make ten ten thousand USD ranks the electric automobile, is accurate to the capture of market demand? Is high with the conjunction degree of consumer?” 李牧反问他:“你觉得,你要造一辆十万美元级别的电动汽车,对市场需求的捕捉精准吗？与消费者的契合程度高吗？” „This......” “这个……” Elon Musk is somewhat at a loss for words, but he is not willing to accept to the Li Mu's view as before, he understands the Li Mu's meaning, nothing but is lowers the figure, to lower the threshold, then sells the entire world the new energy automobile of low threshold, perhaps this truly can make the new energy automobile have more audience, but it lacked the earth-shaking impact feeling, the product that if makes is not very outstanding, to him lost very big power. 埃隆・马斯克有些语塞,但他心里对李牧的说法依旧是不愿采纳的,他明白李牧的意思,无非就是放低身段、放低门槛,然后把低门槛的新能源汽车卖到全世界,这或许确实能让新能源汽车拥有更多的受众,但它还是缺少了石破天惊的冲击感,如果造出来的产品不够优秀,对他来说就丧失了很大的动力。 Li Mu also sees his mood, said lightly: „I did not oppose that you want to make a thought of model of top new energy race car, you can definitely make this team make great strides forward toward this goal in the future, after all has the technology of higher specification to accumulate well always, we can be at any time backward compatible, but, you cannot the future of enterprise repose, in insufficiently meets on the product of rusticity, therefore in the main force model choice, you must reduce the localization, more capacities, serves as a lot manufacturing more inexpensive commodity.” 李牧也看出他的心情,淡淡的说:“我不反对你想造一款顶尖的新能源跑车的念头,你完全可以让这个团队在将来向着这个目标迈进,毕竟有更高规格的技术积淀总是好的,我们可以随时向下兼容,但是,你不能把企业的将来寄托在一款不够接地气的产品身上,所以在主力车型的选择上,你必须降低定位,把更多的产能,用作批量制造更廉价的商品。” Elon Musk nods, said: „Good Chief Li, I understood your meaning.” 埃隆・马斯克点了点头,说:“好的李总,我明白你的意思了。” Li Mu knows that he understood oneself meaning, but does not know that he approves oneself viewpoint, lets him do what he pleases, first makes him get up outdoor shop, if he will be determined to take the old route that previous life Tesla passes through in the future, oneself will not permit absolutely. 李牧知道他明白了自己的意思,但不知道他是不是认可自己的观点,不过管他呢,先让他把摊子支起来,如果将来他执意要走上辈子特斯拉走过的老路,那自己绝对不会允许。 Afterward, Li Mu changes the topic, reminded him saying: „Since decides to make the new energy, a lot you must grasp now ahead of time, will otherwise be very easy to be blocked the throat by others in the future.” 随后,李牧岔开话题,提醒他道:“既然决定做新能源,很多事情你现在就得提前抓起来了,否则将来很容易被其他人扼住喉咙。” Elon Musk subconscious asking: „Do you refer to?” 埃隆・马斯克下意识的问:“你指的是？” „Battery.” Li Mu said: „I do not know that team that you said that can the battery as well as fierce of how battery management technical research and development, I only knows the capacities of 18650 batteries are only 2,000-3,000 milliamperes together, if you want several hundred kilometers continue voyage, perhaps then at least takes several thousand such batteries?” “电池。”李牧说:“我不知道你说的那个团队,能够把电池组以及电池管理技术研发的多么厉害,我只知道一块18650电池的容量不过只有2,000-3,000毫安,如果你想有几百公里的续航,那么恐怕至少要几千块这样的电池吧？” Elon the Musk nod said: „Right Chief Li, normally, we must guarantee 400 kilometers continue voyage, at least needs 7000 batteries.” 埃隆・马斯克点头说道:“没错李总,正常情况下,我们要确保四百公里的续航,至少需要七千块电池。” Li Mu sighed: „You sell a car(riage), others with selling out 7000 batteries, if each battery gains your 1 USD, you sell out a car(riage), was equal to that helped the battery manufacturing enterprise gain seven thousand USD, we sold a car(riage) to gain to seven thousand USD laboriously are also an unknown, if most net profits will be intercepted by them in the future, we lost all initiatives, this issue you wanted to prepare, instead should not be seized the nape of the neck by the upstream raw material supply enterprise when the time comes.” 李牧感叹道:“你卖一辆车,别人就跟着卖掉七千块电池,如果他们每一块电池赚你一美元,那你卖掉一辆车,就等于帮电池生产企业赚了七千美元,我们自己辛辛苦苦卖一辆车能不能赚到七千美元还都是个未知数,如果将来大部分的净利润被他们截取了,那我们就失去了一切主动权,这个问题你要有所准备,不要到时候反而被上游原材料供应企业掐住脖颈。” Elon Musk said: „The technical many enterprises of 18650 batteries have, but the performance of product and controls slightly to have the disparity, this market could not form the monopoly, therefore I think that we will have the negotiations advantage in the face of the battery enterprise in the future very much.” 埃隆・马斯克说:“18650电池的技术很多企业都有,只是产品的性能和品控上略有差距,这块市场形成不了垄断,所以我想我们将来在电池企业面前还是很有谈判优势的。” Li Mu hear of secret shaking the head. 李牧听的暗暗摇头。 Elon Musk although is called Silicon Valley Iron Man in reality, but this brothers works is not very truly rigorous, vision although is long-term, but relative, loophole with neglecting also many scary. 埃隆・马斯克虽然被称为现实中的硅谷钢铁侠,但是这哥们做事确实不够严谨,眼光虽然长远,但是相对的,漏洞与疏忽也多的吓人。 Had not considered that in advance capacity issue, is a Tesla previous life big mechanical damage, but the proportion of battery cost in the auto cost is too high, is a Tesla big Achilles'heel, when many years later went to expand the capacity, to research and develop the battery and construction super battery factory too is too late late, at that time the new energy automobile rose straight from the ground in the world like mushrooms after a spring rainfall, the major automobile enterprises announced that in the near future will stop making the fuel vehicle comprehensively, all governments will also take a stand in the future will forbid the fuel vehicle in their sale, at that time thought the means expansion capacity and research and development to make the battery again, had delayed itself greatly, wasted in vain had an early start the advantage.. 没预先考虑到产能的问题,是特斯拉上辈子一大硬伤,而电池成本在整车成本中占比过高,是特斯拉的一大死穴,等多年之后再去想扩充产能、自己研发电池、建设超级电池工厂已经太晚太晚了,那个时候全世界新能源汽车如雨后春笋般拔地而起,各大汽车企业纷纷宣布在不久的将来全面停止生产燃油车,各国政府也表态在未来将禁止燃油车在本国的销售,那时候再想办法扩充产能、研发生产电池,已经大大耽误了自己,白白浪费了起步较早的优势。 Li Mu sighed at heart, Elon Musk has not foreseen the battery to become the big core pain spot of new energy project unexpectedly, is really disappoints Li Mu somewhat, waits for more than ten years later, the new energy automobile is found in the world time, let alone battery price when production costs rise, prices rise too, the price of essential raw material lithium and cobalt of lithium battery will also progress by leaps and bounds. 李牧心里感叹,埃隆・马斯克竟然没有预见到电池会成为新能源项目的一大核心痛点,真的是让李牧有些失望,等十几年之后,新能源汽车遍布全球的时候,别说电池价格水涨船高,就连锂电池的关键原材料锂和钴的价格也会突飞猛涨。 The power with lithium more than ten, the cobalt dozens tons, the cobalt, the use proportion in lithium battery does not lower many compared with the lithium by some chance by some chance particularly, moreover cobalt thing wants scarce many many compared with the lithium, the China that big land area, the data that according to the West published, the cobalt reserves of our country also accounted for 1% of the world, in the future the new energy time will approach, who grasped the cobalt, who was the father of entire new energy industry. 动力用锂十几万一顿,钴几十万一吨,尤其是钴,在锂电池里的使用占比并不比锂低多少,而且钴这东西比锂要稀缺的多的多,华夏那么大的国土面积,按照西方公布的数据来看,我国的钴储量也就占全球的1%,将来新能源时代来临的时候,谁掌握了钴,谁就是整个新能源行业的爸爸。 Thinks of here, the Li Mu intention moves, the rapid development of lithium battery at least also takes several years, but the relevant industry of cobalt and lithium should now the whole in the trough or the gentle time, if can use for several years goes to the cobalt ore and lithium ore of layout world, as well as necessary production smelting, when the new energy time arrives, the market values of these industries at least turn ten times of even dozens times, this is hold/container Zhuan does not compensate, moreover profit margin extremely high business. 想到这里,李牧心念一动,锂电池的飞速发展至少还需要几年时间,而钴和锂的相关产业现在应该整体处于低谷或者平缓期,如果能用几年的时间去布局全球的钴矿、锂矿,以及配套的生产冶炼,那等到新能源时代到来,这些产业的市值至少翻十倍甚至几十倍,这本身就是一笔包赚不赔,而且利润率极高的买卖。 What is more important, had these core resources, Li Mu can from the upstream of electric automobile upstream battery industry, blocked the battery industry downward the nape of the neck, if in the future these enterprises dare acting cool to plunder their profits from the source immediately, forcing them to obey, the industry that even oneself can the layout lithium battery produce when the time comes, oneself punctured the battery industry the upstream and downstream. 更重要的是,有了这些核心资源,李牧就能从电动汽车上游电池产业的上游,向下扼住电池行业的脖颈,将来这些企业如果敢装逼自己立刻从源头掠夺他们的利润,逼迫他们就范,甚至自己到时候可以布局锂电池生产的产业,自己打穿电池产业的上下游。 Once oneself can puncture the upstream and downstream, forms closed loop that oneself were not terminated affects, waits for the lithium battery raw material to rise suddenly, not only oneself can safeguard oneself new energy automobile cost to have a bigger flexible leeway, but can also by oneself control to upstream resources, go to the wools of other ruthless to rub lithium battery manufacturing enterprises directly, obtains without labor the exports product that the new energy industry erupts to bring to the full, this layout, at least can trade dozens times of incomes, economical angle, the strategic angle is worth. 一旦自己能打穿上下游,形成自己不受完结影响的闭环,等锂电池原材料暴涨的时候,自己不但能保障自己的新能源汽车成本拥有更大的弹性空间,还能直接凭借自己对上游资源的把控,去狠撸其他锂电池生产企业的羊毛,最大程度坐收新能源产业爆发所带来的市场增长,这一块的布局,至少能换来数十倍收益,无论是经济角度,还是战略角度都非常值得。 Therefore, waits for the airplane landing and arrangement after the motorcade Li Mu one group of deliver to the hotel in Harvard School, Li Mu hurries Li Ziwei to call own room, said to her: „Ziwei, gives you a vital duty, this period of time your earnest office.” 于是,等飞机降落、安排好的车队将李牧一行人送至哈佛校内的酒店之后,李牧赶紧把李紫薇叫到自己的房间,对她说:“紫薇,给你一个重要的任务,这段时间你认真办一下。” Li Ziwei busy say/way: „Chief Li please say.” 李紫薇忙道:“李总请说。” Li Mu said: „And we have no direct link shell company through the surrounding, goes to please internationally quite well-known commercial investigation enterprise, helping me investigate at present the entire market conditions of lithium battery industry, as well as mining and manufacturing of back lithium battery various essential raw materials, I must in detail to each element in the proven reserves and mining difficulty level and present stage mining all countries in the world, but must make concrete after mining the whereabouts to these minerals, which countries for example went , conduct the processing refinement by which companies, which companies also sold.” 李牧道:“通过外围和我们没有任何直接联系的壳公司,去请国际上比较知名的商业调查企业,帮我调查一下目前锂电池行业的整个市场情况,以及背后锂电池各种关键原材料的开采、生产加工情况,我要详细到每一种元素在全球各国的探明储量以及开采难易度、现阶段开采情况,还要具体到这些矿产在开采出来之后的去向,比如去了哪些国家、由哪些公司进行加工提炼,又卖给了哪些公司。” Li Ziwei with pen high-speed record, while the nod said: „I remembered Chief Li, other?” 李紫薇一边用笔快速记录,一边点头说道:“我都记下来了李总,还有其他的吗？” Li Mu thinks, said: „Lithium ore and cobalt ore must pay attention with emphasis, I want to know that entire world the quotation trends of these two types of ores, as well as these two ore industries main centralized in whose hand, there is a possibility of taking, if present, needs many funds probably!” 李牧想了想,说:“锂矿、钴矿要重点留意,我想知道全世界的这两种矿石的行情走势,以及这两种矿石产业主要集中在谁的手里,有没有拿下的可能,如果有,大概需要多少资金！”
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