RINAPE :: Volume #15

#1438: The electric automobile can do


LNMTL needs user funding to survive Read More

Li Mu expected that this time private placement will be marketable, but does not have the expectation to attend the meeting such marketablily. 李牧预料到这次的私募会非常抢手,但没预料到会这么抢手。 Chen Ze has been watching requisitioning of member backstage, two hours, the requisitioning has exceeded 5 billion upper limits. 陈泽一直在关注着会员后台的申购情况,两个小时的时间,申购就已经超过了50亿的上限。 Studied Li Mu to make that set of logic of data analysis, Chen Ze also starts to conduct a general analysis to these two hours of requisitioning data. 学着李牧做数据分析的那一套逻辑,陈泽也开始对这两个小时的申购数据进行了一个大概的分析。 First, 5 billion requisitioning altogether successfully requisitioning by 133 members, in average requisitioning the volume is 37.6 million ; 首先,50亿的申购一共由133名会员成功申购,人均申购额为3760万; Next, formal member in China Super Car Club even Hong Kong , Macao , Taiwan area across the mainland, at present altogether is 1089 people, simultaneously the compartment log in member quantity is 897 people, 874 people after the message transmits log in, in other words, at least 874 people of the special details of seeing this private equity ; 其次,csc俱乐部在大陆各地甚至港澳台地区的正式会员,目前一共是1089人,同时间段登陆的会员数量是897人,这其中有874人是在短信发送之后登陆的,也就是说,至少有874人看到了这次私募基金的具体情况; Then, is certain from the temporary data, conversion rate of fund in member probably in 15%, but, because the requisitioning has the quota limit, therefore remaining 85% are not interested, wants to buy actually starts late, but also needs to wait for the subsequent back constraint. 那么,从暂时的数据可以肯定,基金在会员里的转化率大概在15%,但是,由于申购有额度限制,所以剩下的85%到底是不感兴趣,还是想买却下手晚了,还需要等后续的数据反馈。 The following data, is the behavior statistics that other users requisitioning 后续的数据,是其他用户申购的行为统计 The backstage showed, the person of transmission requisitioning application is still increasing unceasingly, after although they click on the application, will pop up the prompt, told them the current period 5 billion Yuan to be sold out, but their application data by backstage on record. 后台显示,发送申购申请的人还在不断增加,虽然他们点击申请之后,会弹出提示,告诉他们本期50亿元已经被抢购一空,但他们的申请数据还是会被后台记录在案。 In a half hour that the requisitioning finished, because 532 people did not know the requisitioning to end, therefore submitted the respective requisitioning application normally, these 532 people of requisitioning total amounts were 218 hundred million RMB! In average requisitioning the volume is 40.98 million ; 在申购结束的半个小时内,有532人因为不知道申购结束,所以正常提交了各自的申购申请,这532人的申购总额是218亿人民币!人均申购额为4098万; However the requisitioning upsurge of member had not ended. 然而会员的申购热潮还没结束。 After one hour, 155 people requisitioning, the requisitioning total amount was 93 hundred million RMB, in average requisitioning the volume to surpass 60 million! 一个小时之后,又有155人申购,申购总额为93亿人民币,人均申购额超过了6000万! more in the future, in average requisitioning the volume is also higher, why Chen Ze has not ravelled from the beginning this is, after the Li Mu ditch passes, Li Mu quickly guesses correctly essential, said to him: Everyone receives the message the time to be consistent, the person who the time more will tow in the future, more may be confirms the source of funds with more time, the fund quantity that can therefore confirm are also more.” 越往后,人均申购额也就越高,陈泽一开始没弄明白这是为什么,跟李牧沟通过之后,李牧很快猜出其中关键,对他说:“大家收到消息的时间是一致的,时间越往后拖的人,越有可能是用更多时间去确认资金来源,所以能确认的资金数量也就越多。” Chen Ze thinks, said: Reasonable.” 陈泽想了想,说:“有道理。” Li Mu said: You can take immediately, is you have, gives you one hour, perhaps you can dredge good all parties to relate, with.” 李牧说:“你立刻能拿出来的,就是你自己有的,给你一个小时的时间,你没准就能疏通好各方关系,拿出来更多。” Chen Ze said: Since this, but also does anything in turn, the direct one breath 22 billion opened the requisitioning not to, in that case, we currently estimate that had finished up.” 陈泽说:“那既然这样,还搞什么分批,直接一口气把220亿都开放申购不就得了,那样的话,我们现在估计就已经完事了。” Li Mu said with a smile: Rushing to purchase to do hungry marketing, more plays, they more treasure us to give their opportunity, not only this time opportunity, the future opportunity, this time we will collect 20 billion internally, next time we might collect in the overseas are more, must make them feel the sense of hunger to our similar products, we will be in the future driving, you will have the time many to chat with Taobao Lei Jun, he may give you a more detailed annotation.” 李牧笑道:“抢购是为了搞一搞饥饿营销,越是这么玩,他们就越珍惜我们给他们的机会,不只是这次的机会,还有将来的机会,这次我们在国内募集两百亿,下次我们有可能在海外募集更多,要让他们对我们的同类型产品充满饥饿感,我们往后就会主动很多,你有时间可以多跟淘宝雷君聊一聊,他可能会给你更详细的诠释。” Chen Ze said: General meaning I understood.” 陈泽说:“大概意思我明白了。” Li Mu un, said: Since everyone enthusiasm is so high, we adjust the strategy temporarily, in the future several phases of subscribers, the subscriber after the subscriber, must first pay 10% earnest money, then in ten days all effect payments account, if ten days later arrives at credit to have short, according to 5% of short amount deducts the penalty ; The actual payout is lower than the subscriber amount 50%, deprives the qualifications that he will participate in China Super Car Club any form capital operation permanently.” 李牧嗯了一声,又道:“既然大家热情度这么高,我们就临时调整一下策略,往后的几期认购,认购者在认购之后,要先交纳10%的保证金,然后在十天之内把所有款项支付到账,如果十天之后到账款项有短缺的,按短缺金额的5%扣除违约金;实际支付金额低于认购金额50%的,永久取消他将来参加csc俱乐部任何形式资本运作的资格。” Li Mu to requisitioning the intention is not trusts, all and money related matter, the intention is far-fetched, be only money is credible, even if the parents comply to call the living expenses you today, still possibly because of having the matter will postpone tomorrow, let alone flowing of this big fund. 李牧对申购意向并不是非常信任,所有和钱有关的事情,意向都不靠谱,只有钱才靠谱,即便是父母答应今天给你打生活费,也可能因为有事而推迟到明天,更何况这种大笔资金的流动。 Let alone, this is one group of borrowing necessary equipment lords, likes taking others' money to come to make money to oneself, therefore their requisitioning intention back fund, likely does not come from by the promise that he controls. 更何况,这都是一帮借鸡生蛋的主,喜欢拿别人的钱来给自己赚钱,所以他们的申购意向背后的资金,很可能来自不受他控制的许诺。 Drew an analogy, Zhang San today requisitioning 100 million, had confidence that can find a source of funds of low interest, then gained several million taking this opportunity in vain, but disbursed money to subscribe to the time, his source of funds may have various problems, any issue might cause him unable to put out so many money to come when the time comes, by that time, puts the pigeon the person to be many temporarily, own important matter will receive the influence. 打个比方,张三今天申购了一亿,有把握能找到一个低息的资金来源,然后借这个机会白白赚几百万,但是到时间出钱认购了,他的资金来源可能会出各种问题,任何问题都有可能导致他到时候拿不出这么多钱来,到那个时候,临时放鸽子的人多了,自己的大事就会收到影响。 Therefore, Li Mu also discussed with Chen Ze, increases the pool that a preparation requisitioning simply again, with may requisitioning the quota according to 1 : 1 proportion disposition, for example this time 5 billion requisitioning fulfils the quota, can absorb 5 billion requisitioning to become the preparation to substitute again, in the community that if front requisitioning some people are unable to realize the subscriber, was substituted the person position to replace by the preparation, and so on ; 于是,李牧又跟陈泽商议,干脆再增加一个预备申购的池子,与可申购额度按照1:1的比例配置,比如这次50亿已经申购满额,可以再吸收50亿的申购成为预备替补,如果前端申购的群体里有人无法实现认购,就由预备替补里的人顺位顶替,以此类推; Chen Ze approves to this series of refined plans, after all their first goal is to collect 25 hundred million USD equivalent RMB, who is leaves as for these money, is unimportant, must therefore be centered on guaranteeing to achieve the first goal. 陈泽对这一系列的细化方案非常赞同,毕竟他们的第一目标是筹集25亿美元等值的人民币,至于这些钱是谁出的,并不重要,所以必须以保证实现第一目标为核心。 The private equity, and matter of follow-up collecting fund, Li Mu entrusted to Chen Ze had full authority and responsibility, how he no longer paid attention to this matter to advance, he only thinks and other Chen Ze in the future near future some day told itself, money has all arrived at the account. 私募基金,以及后续募集资金的事情,李牧委托给了陈泽来全权负责,他不再关注这件事是如何推进的,他只想等陈泽在未来近期的某一天告诉自己,钱已经全部到账了。 ...... …… Until came to an arrangement about the purchase intention with Apple, Li Mu has not met with the Apple person directly. 直到与苹果谈妥了收购意向,李牧也没有与苹果的人直接见面。 One side Tim Cook wants to see with Li Mu, the highest representative but who Muye Science and Technology at purchasing Apple this matter sends out is Lin Qingya, he and Apple high level felt, Li Mu does not take seriously Apple, does not attach great importance to purchasing the Apple matter, therefore he is not willing to participate in this matter personally. 蒂姆・库克很想跟李牧见一面,但牧野科技在收购苹果这件事情上派出的最高代表就是林清雅,他和苹果高层都觉得,李牧本身并不重视苹果,更不重视收购苹果的事情,所以他也根本不愿意亲自参与进这件事情中来。 This gave the Apple high level very big frustration. 这给了苹果高层很大的挫败感。 The company prepared to sell, the big bosses of buyer were disinclined to meet to chat with the executive in company. 公司都准备卖了,买家的大老板都懒得跟公司的高层见面聊一聊。 Actually, one side Li Mu is to see with Tim Cook, has a look at this person now to the control degree of market experienced, if Ok, ahead of time digests an own great general him, is the good matter. 其实,李牧本身是非常想跟蒂姆・库克见一面的,看看这个人现在对市场的把控程度到底有多老练,如果可以,提前把他消化成自己的一员大将,是再好不过的事情。 However, for does not give the purchase to have the impact, Li Mu insisted the principle that does not meet, making all Apple high levels continue to misunderstand, thinks oneself to Apple are not such being interested. 但是,为了不给收购带来影响,李牧还是坚持不见面的原则,让所有苹果高层继续误会,以为自己对苹果并不是那么的感兴趣。 This act not for acting cool, but does not want before the reality purchases landing comes up in great numbers and from all sides any accident, is the attitude is desolater, will more make Apple not self-confident, make them be worried that oneself may give up purchasing anytime, agreement that in this case, they of stop-loss leverage, must coordinate to accelerate eagerly to purchase as soon as possible ; Otherwise, if has been pursuing Apple, instead will make Apple feel to hoard as a rare commodity, perhaps must put in order what monster moth with oneself. 此举不是为了装逼,而是不想在实际收购落地之前横生任何变故,越是态度冷淡,就越会让苹果不自信、让他们担心自己随时有可能放弃收购,这样的话,急于止损套现的他们,就必须尽快配合加速收购的达成;反之,如果是自己一直追着苹果,反而会让苹果觉得奇货可居,没准还要跟自己整出什么妖蛾子。 Li Mu had even decided, early tomorrow morning starts to fly to Harvard, sees Mark Zuckerberg, then receives Silicon Valley to come Su Yingxue, when Apple signed, when met with the Apple person again. 李牧甚至已经决定,明天一早就启程飞赴哈佛,见见马克扎克伯格,然后把苏映雪接到硅谷来,等什么时候苹果签约了,什么时候再跟苹果的人见面。 When purchases the Apple critical moment, Li Mu must walk suddenly, gave the Lin Qingya very tremendous pressure, although she is the Muye Science and Technology vice-president, but purchases of market value 30 hundred million USD, to her are the unprecedented first time. 正值收购苹果的关键时刻,李牧忽然要走,给了林清雅很大的压力,虽说她已经是牧野科技的副总裁,但是一桩市值30亿美元的收购,对她来说还是破天荒的第一次。 Not only she, Li Mu has not played is so big. 不只是她,李牧都没玩过这么大的。 Was good has formulated most key nodes because of Li Mu, Lin Qingya, so long as proceeded to advance according to the Li Mu's request and rhythm, basically will not have any big deviation. 好在李牧已经制定好了大多数的关键节点,林清雅只要按照李牧的要求和节奏往前推进,基本上就不会有什么大的偏差。 Before must walk, Elon Musk gives Li Mu to make the phone call suddenly, said that wants to ask Li Mu recently did have the time, he wants to report that with 18650 batteries to develop the geek project of new energy automobile with Li Mu about before has inspected carefully. 要走之前,埃隆马斯克忽然给李牧打来电话,说想问问李牧最近有没有时间,他想仔细跟李牧汇报一下关于之前考察过的那个用18650电池组研制新能源汽车的极客项目。 Li Mu said to him directly: This, you tidy up, tomorrow will go a Cambridge with me together, we can chat on the airplane slowly.” 李牧直接对他说:“这样吧,你收拾收拾,明天跟我一起去趟剑桥,我们可以在飞机上慢慢聊。” Elon Musk gawked staring, later said: That line, I arrange to work, tomorrow will follow you.” 埃隆马斯克愣了愣,随后说:“那行吧,我安排一下工作,明天跟你跑一趟。” Li Mu said: I make Ziwei tell you take-off time later.” 李牧说:“我待会儿让紫薇把起飞时间告诉你。” ...... …… The corporate aircraft flies to the road in Massachusetts, Elon Musk sits opposite of Li Mu's, chocked up big pile of materials on the small-scale board, said to Li Mu: Chief Li, my research project to that electric automobile made one completely to move, generally speaking, I held a favorable view on their projects, thought that can meticulously do.” 公务机飞赴马萨诸塞州的路上,埃隆马斯克坐在李牧的对面,在小型会议桌上摆满了一大堆的材料,对李牧说:“李总,我对那个电动汽车的研究项目做了一个尽调,总体来说,我对他们这个项目非常看好,觉得可以认真的搞一搞。” Li Mu asked him: Where makes you favor specifically very much?” 李牧问他:“具体是哪里让你很看好?” Elon Musk said: Mainly is the ideological mode, as well as technical feasibility.” 埃隆马斯克说:“主要是思维模式,以及技术上的可行性。” Saying, Elon Musk introduced: Electric drive has many merits, the environmental protection is an aspect, inexpensive is also an aspect, what is more important, the car(riage) of electric drive, very easy to make the breakthrough in the performance, if using the lead-acid battery, the energy density is small, the battery weight is big, will have very big loss in the continue voyage, power and battery life, but this team will try another method, they will use 18650 lithium batteries to manufacture the battery, the energy density will be high, weight will be light . Moreover the life span will at least be higher than 35 times compared with the lead-acid battery, therefore under this engineering factor, the continue voyage, weight, power and battery electric car will weaken the aspect is very big. Promotion.” 说着,埃隆马斯克又介绍道:“电力驱动有很多优点,环保是一方面,廉价也是一方面,更重要的是,电力驱动的车,很容易在性能上取得突破,而如果使用铅酸电池,能量密度小、电池重量大,会在续航、动力以及电池寿命上有很大的损失,而这个团队另辟蹊径,他们采用18650锂电池制作成电池组,能量密度高、重量轻而且寿命比铅酸电池至少高出三五倍,所以在这种技术条件下,电动车的续航、重量、动力以及电池衰减方面都会有很大的提升。” Li Mu asked him: Produces the car(riage) with this technology, is full of the electrical energy to run far?” 李牧问他:“用这种技术造车,充满电能跑多远?” Elon Musk said: They have done to test on the frame vehicle now, if battery density first-year university student some, the continue voyage course break through 300 miles are not the issues.” 埃隆马斯克说:“他们现在已经在框架车上做实验了,如果电池组密度大一些的话,续航里程突破三百英里不是问题。” Charge?” Li Mu asked: How long does such car(riage) fill the electricity to need?” “充电呢?”李牧问:“这样的车充满电需要多久?” Elon Musk said: If the electric current of charging equipment is big enough, six to eight hours can fill the electricity, such vehicle, very suitable middle class to use, the continuous cruise capability deals with his daytime travel demand sufficiently.” 埃隆马斯克说:“如果充电设备的电流足够大,六到八个小时可以充满电,这样的车子,将非常适合中产阶级使用,续航能力足以应付他白天的行驶需求。” Li Mu nods, it seems like Tesla the technology on battery currently has certain foundation, in this case, if gives enough investment, the project has the ability of fast-cooling down. 李牧点了点头,看来特斯拉本身在电池上的技术现在就已经有一定的基础了,这样的话,如果给予足够的投资,项目具备快速启动的能力。 However, the previous life Tesla biggest problem is the limit of capacity, therefore Li Mu asked Elon Musk: If we throw this team, how then the production link does solve?” 不过,上辈子特斯拉最大的问题就是产能的限制,所以李牧埃隆马斯克:“如果我们投这个团队,那么生产环节怎么解决?” Elon Musk says immediately: We must establish a new production line.” 埃隆马斯克立刻说道:“我们要建立一个新的生产线。” Li Mu beckons with the hand: The team that you said that at best is the theoretician of auto industry, they study the battery and research battery management, the charge and discharge control as well as motor-driven and braking energy unusual that recycles these already the outdoor shop shop was big, oneself reconstruct the production line, how can do?” 李牧摆摆手:“你说的这个团队,充其量就是个汽车行业的理论家,他们研究电池、研究电池管理、充放电控制以及电机驱动、制动能量回收这些就已经把摊子铺的非常大了,自己再建生产线,怎么能搞得过来?” Elon Musk said: Is such Chief Li, if we invest this project, must first first complete these research and development efforts that you said a moment ago, then makes the paper vehicle, my idea is, after making the paper vehicle, we can first sell in advance in Silicon Valley, this can first absorb a number of orders and funds, then we begin to establish in one large-scale production line, accelerates our productive work.” 埃隆马斯克说:“是这样李总,如果我们投资这个项目,首先要先把您刚才说的那些研发工作都做完,然后造出样车,我的想法是,造出样车之后,我们就可以先在硅谷预售,这样可以先吸收一批订单与资金,然后我们着手建立一个中大型的生产线,来加速我们的生产工作。” Li Mu said reluctantly: Elon, this what age, which who did also start an undertaking to take a bamboo pole to hold? To open the restuarant not to need to raise cattle, with the cattle range cooperation, or purchases a cattle range simply is the best solution.” 李牧无奈的说:“埃隆,这都什么年代了,哪还有谁创业要一竿子捅到底的?想开西餐厅不需要自己养牛,跟养牛场合作,或者干脆收购一家养牛场才是最好的解决办法。” Saying, Li Mu was also saying: If this electric solution is feasible, I receive an automobile manufacture company in China directly, when the time comes our automobile company must divide two parts, a R & D team that is you contacts now, they will be responsible for the research and development of electric related technology in the future comprehensively ; Another automobile manufacture company that is I says, will be the future manufacture team, they will be responsible for the development and production of automobile hardware, if possible, we will purchase battery research and development and production company again.” 说着,李牧又道:“如果这套电动的解决方案可行,那我就直接在华夏收一家汽车制造公司,到时候我们这个汽车公司就要分两部分,一个是你现在接触的这个研发团队,他们将来全面负责电动相关技术的研发;另一个是我说的汽车制造公司,也就是未来的制造团队,他们将负责汽车硬件的开发与生产,如果可以的话,我们再收购一家电池研发和生产的公司。” Elon Musk said: Chief Li, this startup cost was too high . Moreover the risk is too big......” 埃隆马斯克说:“李总,这样的话启动成本就太高了,而且风险太大……” Li Mu asked him: You thought that with that method that you said that how many years can this company make to start truly? Five years later can deliver the first car(riage)? Eight years later can deliver 1 million car(riage)s?” 李牧问他:“你觉得用你说的那种方法,这家公司要做多少年才能真正起步?五年后能交付第一辆车吗?八年后能交付一百万辆车吗?” This......” Elon Musk is at a loss for words for a while. “这个……”埃隆马斯克一时语塞。 Li Mu said: „Do you know that China does have an automobile enterprise to call Jili?” 李牧说:“你知不知道华夏有一家汽车企业叫吉利?” Does not know......” “不知道……” You can understand, the founder in this enterprise held automobile initially is being four wheels add two sofas the mentality decision produces the car(riage), they in 1997 decided to produce the car(riage), in 1998 the first car(riage) on the winding, you must have such boldness, can handle this matter, if you want with the 7-8 year went to raise slowly it, I thought that you can not serve as, because even if when the time comes you raised with great difficulty, will still be tattered and torn and have various problems, today possible is the capacity is insufficient, tomorrow possible will be. The cash flow is insufficient, may start for day to lose money several million again the day after tomorrow, but you make the product, to sell the product as one company, the capacity is more insufficient, your cash flow more cannot follow, losing money is also bigger!” “那你可以了解一下,这家企业的创始人当初是抱着‘汽车就是四个轮子加两个沙发’的心态决定造车的,他们1997年决定造车,1998年第一辆车就下线了,你得有这样的魄力,才能把这件事情做起来,如果你想用七八年的时间去慢慢把它养起来,那我觉得你就可以不用做了,因为到时候就算你好不容易养起来了,也会千疮百孔、出现各种问题,今天可能是产能不足,明天可能是现金流不足,再后天可能就开始一天亏损几百万了,而你作为一家造产品、卖产品的公司,产能越不足,你现金流就越跟不上,亏损也就越大!” Elon Musk threw Tesla initially, first round threw several million USD, the investments of several million USD must produce the automobile, said that is such as the joke is simply ordinary, thus it can be seen, then Tesla start speed slow, almost cooks the Buddha jumps over the wall with dozen cigarette lighter. 埃隆马斯克当初投特斯拉,第一轮才投了几百万美元,几百万美元的投资就要造汽车,说出去是简直如玩笑一般,由此可见,当时的特斯拉起步速度有多慢,几乎是用打火机炖佛跳墙。 To come in Li Mu, if must throw Tesla this project today, that wins over today the Tesla founding team, tomorrow on will first lock an automobile manufacturing corporation, then increases the fund to invest, was equal to that two high efficiency stoves cook pot Buddha jumps over the wall together, the speed naturally meets geometrical time of promotion. 李牧想来,如果今天要投特斯拉这个项目,那今天把特斯拉的创始团队拉拢过来,明天就得先锁定一家汽车制造企业,再加大资金投入,等于是两台大功率炉子一起炖一锅佛跳墙,速度自然会几何倍提升。 When the time comes two sides resources conformity, the Tesla sedan can start quickly from the production line like below stuffed dumpling, can't the make-to-order follow? Hands over the car(riage) deadline to repeatedly delay? Does not exist! Cannot do well for 2-3 years later, Tesla became the street car. 到时候两边资源一整合,特斯拉轿车很快就能像下饺子一样噼里啪啦的从生产线上开下来,订单生产跟不上?交车期限一拖再拖?不存在的!搞不好2-3年之后,特斯拉就成街车了。
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