RINAPE :: Volume #13

#1255: Cannot make them stir muddily the water


LNMTL needs user funding to survive Read More

The promotion of informationization to traditional industry holds with in addition naturally can not be questioned that almost any industry after the informationization, will have the tremendous changes, the logistics express industry is also same. 信息化对传统产业的提升和加持自然是毋容置疑的,几乎任何行业在信息化之后,都会发生翻天覆地的变化,物流快递行业也是一样。 Li Mu when has not started to plan the Construction logistics hardware, first started the path of informationization, at present Taobao Logistics logistics management system is not only the domestic first set of logistics informationization manages system, even level compared with previous life 2010 around is not weak. 李牧在还没开始着手筹建物流硬件的时候,就先启动了信息化的道路,目前淘宝物流的物流管理系统不仅是国内第一套物流信息化管理系统,甚至水平比起上辈子的2010年前后也丝毫不弱。 Because Brother Liu has flushed in the Taobao Logistics first line, therefore knew about Taobao this set of logistics management system especially, in his opinion, this set of system simply is a divine tool, so long as increases together the link of scan code spear/gun in the key node of logistics, express from receiving arrives at each link that sends to the transportation again very clear preserves the record on the server, to the increase of entire logistics efficiency is not a tiny bit. 刘师兄因为一直冲在淘宝物流第一线,所以对淘宝这套物流管理系统格外了解,在他看来,这套系统简直就是神器,只要在物流的关键节点增加一道扫码枪的环节,快递从收件到运输再到派送的每一个环节就可以非常清晰的在服务器上留存记录,对整个物流效率的提升可不是一点半点。 At this time, Li Mu inquired Brother Liu: Besides our land transportation networks, current aviation resources how?” 这时候,李牧询问刘师兄:“除了咱们自己的陆运网络之外,目前的航空资源怎么样了?” Brother Liu said: I have started to cooperate with Ms. Lin Lin That side, Southern Airlines all underbelly goods warehouse resources have pooled capital to establish the company exclusive contract that by us now, the underbelly goods warehouse resources of several other airlines we also took much . Moreover the proportion more takes.” 刘师兄说:“我已经跟林琳女士那边开始合作了,南航现在所有的机腹货仓资源已经被我们合资成立的公司独家承包,其他几家航空公司的机腹货仓资源我们也拿了不少,而且比重越拿越多。” Li Mu nods, asked Brother Liu: At present Taobao express concrete effectiveness?” 李牧点了点头,问刘师兄:“目前淘宝快递的具体时效呢?” Brother Liu said: At present skeleton line city to skeleton line city, if there is a route support, we have been able to achieve for 24 hours to deliver, generally before is 6 : 30 pm, receives, after 9-12 : 00 pm completes the sort and pack, the unification installs equipment, basically before 12 : 00 pm in destination city landing, will certainly complete the delivery before the next day 6 : 30 pm.” 刘师兄说:“目前干线城市对干线城市,如果有航线支撑的话,我们已经可以做到24小时内送达,一般是下午 6 点半之前收件,晚上9-12点完成分拣和打包之后,统一装机,基本上在第二天中午12点之前一定会在目的地城市落地,在第二天的下午 6 点半之前完成投递。” Skeleton line city to non- skeleton line city, if there is a route support, in 36 hours deliver, first half before me said are the same, in 24 hours first arrive at the skeleton line collection and distribution center, then in remaining 12 hours through land transportation delivery and sending of skeleton line to branch.” “干线城市到非干线城市,如果有航线支撑,36小时内送达,前半截跟我之前说的一样,24小时内先到干线集散地,然后剩下的12小时内通过干线到支线的陆地运输送达并派送。” Non- skeleton line city to non- skeleton line city, if there is a route support, in 48 hours deliver, basically are the non- skeleton line city to the skeleton line city, from the skeleton line city to the skeleton line city, then the skeleton line arrive at the branch destination again.” “非干线城市到非干线城市,如果有航线支撑,48小时内送达,基本上就是非干线城市到干线城市,再从干线城市到干线城市,然后干线再到支线目的地。” Non- skeleton line city to non- skeleton line city, without the route support, in 1000 kilometers, in 48 hours delivers, over 1000 kilometers, in 72 hours deliver basically can safeguard.” “非干线城市到非干线城市,如果没有航线支撑,1000公里内的,48小时内送达,超过1000公里的,72小时内送达基本可以保障。” „If very remote southwest and northwest, the user has two choices, walks the effectiveness of aerial transport also in 48 hours, but the price will be higher, the land transportation meets small advantage to be many, but the time slightly is also long, generally we pledged that delivered on the 5 th.” “如果是非常偏远的西南和西北,用户有两种选择,走空运的时效性也在48小时内,不过价格会高一些,陆运会便宜不少,但时间也稍微久一点,一般我们承诺五日送达。” Li Mu nods, said: This effectiveness is good, is worth praising.” 李牧点了点头,说:“这个时效性已经非常不错了,值得表扬。” In the future domestic express industry's first SF Express, the domestic express effectiveness so, therefore in the effectiveness, Taobao express basically has basically also been able to be flush with future SF Express, but difference on difference in ample capacity. 日后国内快递行业第一名的顺风,在国内的快递时效基本上也就如此了,所以在时效上,淘宝快递基本上已经能够和日后的顺风齐平,不过差就差在运力上了。 Now express turnover gauge mold although of nation has very big promotion, but has not entered the e-Commerce golden period, Taobao express can safeguard this effectiveness under the current market demand, but if the transportation amount doubles, that definitely did not handle, future SF Express will have the home biggest express freight transportation aircraft formation, but facing huge market demand, even SF Express still will be very difficult to safeguard the effectiveness, therefore the Taobao Logistics future path will be very long. 现在全国的快递吞吐量规模虽然有很大提升,但还没有进入电子商务的黄金期,淘宝快递在目前的市场需求下能够保障这种时效,但如果运量增加一倍,那肯定就玩不转了,日后的顺风有国内最大的快递货运机队,但面对巨大的市场需求,即便是顺风也很难保障时效,所以淘宝物流未来的道路还很漫长。 Remembers SF Express, Li Mu asks Brother Liu: That side Guandong SF Express ship promptly how?” 想起顺风,李牧刘师兄:“粤省那边的顺风速运怎么样了?” Li Mu gave Brother Liu to issue the order, to SF Express this small business that depends upon the Guangdong , Hong Kong , Marco express item to live extremely moistens, must fiercely attack hits ruthlessly, because its although scale did not have, but has opened the gold ore that gained steadily does not compensate, if not even if wipes out it, as its accumulation of capital is getting stronger and stronger, will happen one day will be well-prepared, brings the impact on the entire industry. 李牧曾经给刘师兄下达过命令,对顺风这种依靠粤港澳快件活得极其滋润的小型企业,一定要猛打狠打,因为它虽然规模还没有起来,但已经开辟出了一个稳赚不赔的金矿,如果不即使把它打掉,随着它的资本积累越来越强,终有一天会厚积薄发,对整个行业带来冲击。 Brother Liu said: We purchased several motorcades that in Hong Kong before has two place transportation aptitude, in addition we have been luring the SF Express staff, and fights the price war with them, now has towed to be dying them, at present, our Guangdong , Hong Kong , Marco express item effectiveness compared with SF Express must quickly, moreover we are higher than at least 30% in the express personnel overall treatment of Guandong compared with SF Express, meanwhile matching stronger benefits support, what is more important, we are low, current the Guangdong , Hong Kong , Marco express item that also presses in the pricing of market end is loses money to do, SF Express does not dare to fight price war with us, now should. In zero profit operation stage, couple of days ago heard they could not have supported, is seeking financing.” 刘师兄说:“我们之前在香港收购了几家有两地运输资质的车队,再加上我们一直在挖顺风的员工并且跟他们打价格战,现在已经把他们拖得快死了,目前,我们的粤港澳快件时效比顺风还要快一点,而且我们在粤省的快递人员整体待遇比顺风高出至少30%,同时还搭配更强的福利支撑,更重要的是,我们在市场端的定价也压的非常低,目前咱们的粤港澳快件是赔钱做的,顺风不敢跟我们打价格战,现在应该是在零利润运营阶段,前两天听说他们已经支撑不住,在寻求融资。” Financing?” Li Mu snort/hum smiles one, disdain said: „A place express enterprise, but also wants to finance, finances to fight the price war with us? Has Taobao Logistics as well as Taobao Science and Technology suspends here, which investor will give it to invest? This fond dream does a little was also too impractical.” “融资?”李牧哼笑一声,不屑的说:“一个地方快递企业,还想融资,融资来跟我们打价格战吗?有淘宝物流以及淘宝科技摆在这里,哪个投资人会给它投资?这个美梦做的也有点太不切实际了。” Brother Liu nods, said: I thought that they basically were also hopeless, most insists again for 1-2 months, almost must disband, without the market, is unprofitable, they in our front does not have any advantages.” 刘师兄点点头,说:“我觉得他们也基本上没戏了,最多再坚持1-2月,也就差不多要散伙了,没有市场、没有利润,他们在我们面前没有任何优势。” Saying, Brother Liu was also saying: Actually with our current operation styles, the domestic express logistics industry has become existence that all enterprises have been able not hold a candle, not only SF Express, other express companies are also same, they fall into a huge vortex now, their although also imagines us to be the same, starting auto-sorting system and starting logistics management system, starts the efficient motorcade and aviation resources, but they simply do not have enough capital to operate such huge project, this threshold was really high, the pulling down price that therefore they can only go all out, the pressed profit margin has lowered to the pinnacle, almost in withstanding limit edge.” 说着,刘师兄又道:“其实以我们目前的这种运营模式,在国内的快递物流行业来说已经成了所有企业望尘莫及的存在,不只是顺风,其他快递公司也是一样,他们现在都陷入了一个巨大的漩涡,他们虽然也想像我们一样,上马自动分拣系统、上马物流管理系统、上马高效的车队以及航空资源,但是他们根本没有足够的资本去运作这样庞大的项目,这个门槛实在是太高了,所以他们只能拼命的压低价格,压的利润率已经低到极致,几乎就在承受的极限边缘。” Li Mu asked him: „Can our integration cost be higher than them?” 李牧问他:“我们综合成本要比他们高吧?” Yes.” Brother Liu said: Our overall cost is higher than at least 30% compared with the ordinary express company, mainly manifests in the earlier hardware investment is too big, the depreciation rate is high, personnel cost high these aspects.” “是的。”刘师兄说:“我们整体成本比普通快递公司高出至少30%,主要体现在前期硬件投入太大,折旧率高,人员成本高这几个方面。” The Li Mu silent moment, said: In other words, is high because of our overall costs, therefore we in view of the knife edges of other express companies, basically cut not, will also stay behind an existing space to the opposite party.” 李牧沉默片刻,说:“也就是说,因为我们的整体成本高,所以我们针对其他快递公司的刀刃,基本是砍不到底的,还会给对方留下一点生存空间。” Brother Liu said: Right, draws an analogy, the same line, the similar weight, other express companies can clench teeth to press the cost to 10 Yuan, but our unit prices can only press to 13 Yuan lowest cost, these three yuan spaces, leave their existing space.” 刘师兄道:“没错,打个比方,同样的线路,同样的重量,其他的快递公司能咬牙把成本压到十元,但我们的单价成本最低只能压到13元,这三元钱的空间,就是留给他们的生存空间。” Li Mu shows a faint smile: This is also good, we must let the industry integral development after all, not possible to crush all express companies completely, the government and law will not permit us in this industry in the position of monopoly, but we can realize a minute/share of level to monopolize through our methods actually.” 李牧微微一笑:“这样也好,我们终归是要让行业整体发展,不可能把所有的快递公司全部挤垮,政府和法律都不会允许我们在这个行业处于垄断的地位,不过我们倒是可以通过我们自己的手段去实现分层级垄断。” Brother Liu curious asking: What meaning is minute/share of level monopoly?” 刘师兄好奇的问:“分层级垄断是什么意思?” Li Mu said: For example we only monopolize the high-end express market, leaves behind the blank of low-end express market to other companies, from the entire express industry, we are not in the monopoly position, does not involve any monopolist operation, but from the user perspective, the high-end express demand will be eaten up by us completely.” 李牧说:“比如我们只垄断中高端快递市场,留下低端快递市场的空白给其他公司,从整个快递行业来说,我们根本不处在垄断的位置,也不涉及任何垄断经营,但从用户角度上来说,中高端的快递需求会全部被我们吃下。” Brother Liu nods: I understand that your meaning, this also truly most suits our current overall situations, with we such huge heavy asset operation style, very difficult to press, to go to the lowest level to prey with these enterprises the cost lowly, the sea is very deep, after all has the place that we cannot get down.” 刘师兄点了点头:“我明白你的意思了,这也确实最符合我们目前的整体情况,以我们这么庞大的重资产运营模式,很难把成本压到最低、去最底层跟那些企业搏杀,海很深,终归有我们下不去的地方。” Teacher Lei that had not spoken opened the mouth to say at this time: Chief Li and Old Liu, I felt, we consider only and high-end market are not enough, the by domestic national condition, regardless of any industry, the high-end market can never become the mainstream, with the clothing market, the home above market mass is supported mostly by the low-and-middle market, the electrical appliances and cell phone, disappear quickly are also same, I had investigated before the market proportion of day product, although we in the domestic product sign that Yanjing in the television, market sees every day are the well-known brands, but completes the investigation to know truly, the majority markets are the small brand support that are not known by these us. Gets up . Moreover the market mass is enormous, almost covered overwhelming majorities of 800,000,000-900,000,000 rural population, but also covered some small urban population, five yuan big bottle of shampoos of Guandong produces, the sales volume must be higher than more than ten twenty times compared with Pantene and Head & Shoulders well-known brand like this, if we sell the low-end express market to these enterprises completely, will then be very likely also to sell more than 50% market mass to them in the future, this loss is very big!” 一直没怎么说话的雷教主这个时候开口道:“李总老刘,我觉得,我们只顾及中高端市场是远远不够的,以国内的国情来看,无论任何行业,中高端市场都始终不能成为主流,就拿服装市场来说,国内多半以上的市场体量都是由中低端市场支撑起来的,家电、手机、快消品也是一样,我之前调查过日化产品的市场占比,虽然我们在燕京每天电视里、商场里看到的日化品牌都是知名品牌,但真正做完调查才知道,大部分市场都是由那些我们不知道的小品牌支撑起来的,而且市场体量极大,几乎覆盖了800,000,000-900,000,000农村人口的绝大多数,还覆盖了小部分城市人口,粤省产的五元钱一大瓶的洗发水,销量比潘婷、海飞丝这样的知名品牌要高出十几二十几倍,如果我们把低端快递市场全部出让给这些企业,那么将来极有可能把一半以上的市场体量也出让给了他们,这个损失可是非常大的!” The Teacher Lei words make Li Mu awaken instantaneously. 雷教主的话让李牧瞬间惊醒。 Own truly some excessively blindly believed in previous life SF Express, always thought SF Express can achieve that scale, that service and that effectiveness, is truly extraordinary, but in the final analysis, SF Express although is outshining others in industry, but takes a broad view at the entire industry, it the percentage in industry is far inferior its fame is so domineering, the home has the massive low cost operation inexpensive express company, Three Contacts reaches larger scale several, but the express company that cannot name the character innumerably is nibbling the share of this industry, if oneself only want express to make SF Express Taobao, the imaginary space is also so limited, SF Express market value. High also 2000 hundred million RMB, but ups such top giant market value for a long time in the grade fluctuation of 6-7 thousand hundred million RMB. 自己确实有些过度迷信上辈子顺风了,总觉得顺风能做到那个规模、那个服务、那个时效,确实很了不起,但是说到底,顺风虽然是行业里的一枝独秀,但放眼整个行业,它在行业里的占有率远不及它的名气那么强势,国内有大量低成本运营的廉价快递公司,三通一达只是其中规模比较大的几个,但还有无数叫不上名字的快递公司在蚕食着这个行业的份额,自己如果只想把淘宝快递做成顺风,那么想象空间也非常有限,顺风市值最高也不过两千亿人民币,但ups这样的顶级巨头市值长期在六七千亿人民币的段位浮动。 To become a world-class logistics company, must have enough safeguard to the percentage of market, only makes the high end, truly obviously insufficient, Li Mu recalls previous life, has at least over 80% orders not to use SF Express in the Taobao shopping express, that is because at the same time the seller in the compression cost, on the other hand the buyer is also reducing the disbursement, many sellers have the long-term collaboration relations with some ordinary express company, the super client sends the express starting price to lower to a 3-4 Yuan money, in the same situation, the SF Express price feared that is must high one time, therefore most sellers will not choose SF Express, if the user non- must. Chooses SF Express, the cost of so many coming out also wants buyer to undertake. 想成为一家世界级的物流公司,对市场的占有率一定要有足够的保障,只做中高端,确实是有明显不足,李牧回想上辈子,在淘宝购物有至少80%以上的订单不使用顺风快递,那是因为一方面卖家在压缩成本,另一方面买家也在降低支出,很多卖家都跟某家普通快递公司有长期合作关系,大客户发快递的起步价低到三四元钱,同等情况下,顺风的价格怕是要高一倍,所以大部分的卖家都不会选择顺风,如果用户非要选择顺风,那么多出来的成本也要买家自己来承担。 Every so often buys a dozens Yuan thing, the seller wraps ordinary express, but sends the SF Express buyer to need to add 15-20 yuan additionally, most buyers , if not worry, will not assign SF Express express, this is the defect of SF Express to low-end market control. 很多时候买一件几十元的东西,卖家包普通快递,但是发顺风买家需要额外加15-20元钱,以至于大部分买家如果不是非常着急,绝不会指定顺风快递,这就是顺风对低端市场掌控力的缺失。 Li Mu has not played the industry truly, does not understand the significance of low-end market, Brother Liu is infatuated in the logistics system of constructing, therefore he also neglects to the low-end market, but Teacher Lei is different, he can be bigger and stronger Xiaomi, depended is to the keen sense of smell in low-and-middle market, pure low price and pure low-end model, the low-and-middle performance-to-price ratio model that matches compared with the low price high, the Xiaomi cell phone in very 6, but many Mi products that Xiaomi that product online plays derives, resist with the opponent by these two dimensions basically. 李牧没真正玩过实业,不懂低端市场的意义,刘师兄痴迷于自建的物流体系,所以他对低端市场也有忽略,但雷教主不同,他之所以能把小米做大做强,靠的就是对中低端市场的敏锐嗅觉,无论是纯低价、纯低端的机型,还是较低价、较高配的中低端性价比机型,小米手机在产品线上都玩的非常六,而小米衍生出来的诸多“米家”产品,也基本都靠这两个维度跟对手抗争。 Li Mu obtained this very important inspiration from his words, the high end must do, low-and-middle must do, this is the full scale development direction, otherwise previous life SF Express will be the Taobao express future, will not have a bigger pattern. 李牧从他的话中得到了这个非常重要的启发,中高端要做,中低端也要做,这样才是全面发展的方向,否则上辈子顺风就是淘宝快递的未来,没有更大的格局。 Immediately, Li Mu sincere say/way: Right that Old Lei said that we cannot completely give up the low-and-middle market, otherwise was more stirred the water by this group of motley crew extremely easily is muddier, if we do not have in the ability that in the turbid water catches a fish by hand, or does not want to catch a fish by hand in the turbid water, that must suppress this fellows stubbornly, once they stir muddily the water, our his mother did not have the food to eat!” 随即,李牧正色道:“老雷说的对,我们不能完全放弃中低端市场,否则极容易被这帮乌合之众把水越搅越浑,如果我们不具备在浑水里摸鱼的能耐,或者不想在浑水里摸鱼,那就要死死压住这帮家伙,一旦他们把水都搅浑,我们就他妈没饭吃了!” Saying, Li Mu recalled a Xiaomi path, said to Brother Liu: senior brother, gives you two duties, first, our cost recompression, presses the blade again downward, you said a moment ago they can achieve 10, we can only achieve 13, this is inaccurate, under once because they start for truly the survival struggles vigorously, they can in 10 foundations continue to search, cannot do well to them to play a hooligan, the one breath this value press to 5 also perhaps, by that time, we in 13, them in 5, the middle left their spaces too to be big were too big!” 说着,李牧回想了一下小米的路子,对刘师兄说:“师兄,给你两个任务,第一,把我们的成本再压缩,把刀刃再往下压一些,你刚才说他们能做到十,我们只能做到13,这个是不准确的,因为一旦他们真正开始为生存而极力挣扎的时候,他们能在十的基础上继续下探,搞不好就给他们玩出个野路子,一口气把这个数值压到五也说不定,到那个时候,我们在13,他们在五,中间留给他们的空间就太大太大了!” Brother Liu also realized the gravity of issue, nods to say again and again: I understood, then I find the way to further reduce our operation costs.” 刘师兄也意识到了问题的严重性,连连点头道:“我明白了,接下来我就想办法进一步压低我们的运营成本。” Li Mu said: Operation cost and service effectiveness are you are high I to lower, although we can provide to the user highest effectiveness now, but we will not remove in the future many users, when the cost and effectiveness two will choose one, chose the former, same express, in 24 hours will send to need 20 Yuan, in 48 hours will send to need 15 Yuan, in 72 hours will send actually only need 10 Yuan, many users will always choose 10 Yuan shift, therefore you if not only wants the means to reduce the operation cost, but must make a better conformity our logistics system, cannot make it only in enhancing the effectiveness. On plays the role, but must make them play the role in the cost reduction.” 李牧说:“运营成本和服务时效是你高我低的,虽然我们现在能够提供给用户最高的时效性,但我们不排除未来有很多用户在成本和时效二选一的时候,选择了前者,同样的快递,24小时内发到需要20元,48小时内发到需要15元,72小时内发到却只需要十元,总有很多用户会选择十元档位,所以你不但要想办法压低运营成本,还要把我们的物流系统做一个更好的整合,不能让它只在提高时效上发挥作用,还要让他们在降低成本上发挥作用。” Saying, Li Mu was also asking: We now for express guarantee effectiveness, each sending out pack express, or is the container and underbelly goods warehouse, how many the utilization rate of space and ample capacity can arrive at?” 说着,李牧又问:“我们现在为了快递的保证时效性,每一个发出的打包快递,或者是集装箱、机腹货仓,空间和运力的利用率能到多少?” Brother Liu thinks, said: Except for very popular line can about 90%, other mostly in 70% high and low, for example tonight we must from Yanjing toward a Jinling round of trailer, to guarantee the effectiveness, 12 : 00 pm starts out on time, even if that only installed 50%, we must send out on time.” 刘师兄想了想,说:“除了非常热门的线路能到90%左右,其他的大都在70%上下,比如说今天晚上我们要从燕京金陵发挂车,为了保证时效性,晚上12点准时发车,那么即便只装了50%,我们也要准点发出。” Li Mu nods: This was the issue, from the cost, the vehicles naturally was installs fully more to make money, but wants to wait to pack must lose the time, thinks that did not lose the time to in scheduled time internal installation many on drawing many, we had big ample capacity waste, then we later did to derive a low-end product line simply, the package of this product line reduced its effectiveness from that moment of sort in system automatically, for example is from Yanjing to wrapping of Jinling, the cargo of choice fast product will also send out in the scheduled time internal installation discontentedly, but the cargo of choice idling speed product., Will be detained the waiting in the sort center, when packed, or almost packed, when sends out again, as the matter stands, the overall cost of this batch of slow products naturally will drop many.” 李牧点点头:“这就是问题所在了,从成本来看,车辆自然是装得越满越赚钱,但是想等装满就要耽误时间,想不耽误时间就要在规定时间内装多少就拉多少,以至于我们有很大的运力浪费,那么我们以后就干脆做衍生一条低端产品线,这种产品线的包裹从分拣的那一刻起就在系统内自动降低它的时效性,例如都是从燕京金陵的包裹,选择快速产品的货物在规定时间内装不满也会发出,但选择慢速产品的货物,就会在分拣中心滞留等待,什么时候装满了,或者几乎装满了,什么时候再发出,这样一来,这一批慢速产品的整体成本自然就会下降很多。” Brother Liu nods to say immediately: Ok, this matter I start immediately, in the evening I look for Fang Xudong, communicates the demand in this aspect , to promote our system.” 刘师兄立刻点头说道:“ok,这件事我立刻开始着手,晚上我去找方旭东,沟通一下这方面的需求,把我们的系统升级一下。” Must as soon as possible!” Li Mu said: Besides this point, we must further promote our product the performance-to-price ratio, so-called performance-to-price ratio, on the one hand is the performance, on the one hand is the price, a moment ago what said is the price, then said the performance, thinks we how while cutting price, proposes again performance!” “一定要尽快!”李牧说:“除了这一点之外,我们还要进一步提升我们产品的性价比,所谓性价比,一方面是性能,一方面是价格,刚才说的是价格,接下来再说性能,想想我们怎么样在降低价格的同时,再把性能这一块提上去!”
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