RINAPE :: Volume #13

#1221: Behind aerospace dream big scheme


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Li Mu understands very little to the military, not like the male student who likes the military, can the main force fighter aircraft, battleship and tank all countries in the world, even is skillfully, understanding of Li Mu that the individual weapon understands the military as well as defense development, is passive, the television reported the J-10 fighter aircraft, he knows that had J-10 such thing ; The news said that US (America) sent the Korean Peninsula f22, he knows that had an airplane to call f22. 李牧对军事知之甚少,不像一些喜欢军事的男生,能够把全世界各国的主力战机、战舰、坦克,甚至是单兵武器都了解的滚瓜烂熟,李牧对军事以及军工发展的了解,都是被动的,电视报道歼十战机,他才知道有歼十这么个东西;新闻说美国把f22派到了朝鲜半岛,他才知道有一种飞机叫f22。 Therefore , Elon Musk mentioned Drone, Li Mu first thinking was not the predator, but was DJI. 所以,当,埃隆马斯克说起无人机,李牧第一个想到的不是什么掠食者,而是大疆 Thought of DJI, Li Mu remembers itself to spend the DJI elf that 4 a lot of money bought initially, bought not to have the new two weeks, because exploded the machine unable to find again. 一想到大疆,李牧就想起自己当初花不少钱买的大疆精灵四,买回来还没新鲜俩礼拜,就因为炸机再也找不到了。 Explodes machine the process conforms to Li Mu sciences and engineering male student makings very much. 炸机的过程很符合李牧身上的理工科男生气质。 Sciences and engineering male student's small thing to this high tech begins quickly, moreover studies the technical family background has one type is not convinced the strength to this type of thing forever, for example DJI Drone has an electric quantity to manage system as well as intelligent return system, when the airplane flies beyond certain distance, and electric quantity drops unceasingly time, DJI this set of system can judge that an airplane safe return the point, in other words, DJI believes that under the current distance and electric quantity, the airplane had arrived at the safe return decision point, if not return, very possible, because the electric quantity is insufficient, but the midway explodes machine. 理工科男生对这种高科技的小玩意上手很快,而且学理工出身的对这种东西永远有着一种“不服气”的劲头,比如大疆无人机有一个电量管理系统以及智能返航系统,当飞机飞到一定距离之外,且电量不断下降的时候,大疆这套系统能够判断出一个飞机安全返航的点,也就是说,大疆认为,在当前的距离和电量下,飞机已经到了安全返航的决断点,如果再不返航,很可能因为电量不够而中途炸机。 Li Mu has not dared from the beginning with system acting cool, but after playing several chapters, thought proficiently, thinks that this thing is also merely mediocre, he starts to feel, oneself compares this set of system to understand this Drone limit, when he decides to challenge system that time, the electric quantity of airplane in the return half-way exhausted, falls into the river. 李牧一开始还不敢跟系统装逼,但是玩了几回、自以为熟练了之后,就认为这东西也不过尔尔,他开始觉得,自己比这套系统更了解这家无人机的极限,所以当他决定挑战系统的那一次,飞机在返航的半道上电量耗尽,掉进河里了。 Thinks that puts up Drone, Li Mu also feels a pity. 想到那架无人机,李牧至今还觉得可惜。 Elon Musk sees Li Mu to be probably absent-minded, simply has not listened to the appearance that oneself spoke, somewhat disappointed saying: Eldest child you , if not interested in this aspect, we chatted other.” 埃隆马斯克李牧好像心不在焉,根本没听自己说话的样子,不禁有些失望的说道:“老大你要是对这方面不感兴趣,那咱们还是聊别的吧。” Li Mu then from exploding machine in the recollection recovers, hastily beckons with the hand saying: No, I am very interested, how was pondering over this thing to play a moment ago, or do you give me to introduce again in detail?” 李牧这才从炸机的回忆中回过神来,急忙摆摆手道:“别,我挺感兴趣的,刚才就在琢磨这东西到底该怎么玩,要不你再给我详细介绍介绍?” Elon Musk is very happy, body to lean forward, sat is nearer to Li Mu, said earnestly: About this aspect, I thinks, our internet industries, in technical most situations are not the barrier, the product are, everyone carries out the development with the same environment and same language, some people can do one set of complete Operating System, some people do a small plug-in unit also all are Boss ug ; You can do YY this super product, Microsoft actually can only cause msn in a complete mess.” 埃隆马斯克喜上眉梢,身子前倾、坐得离李牧更近了一些,认真说道:“关于这方面,我是这么想的,咱们的互联网行业,技术大多数情况下不是壁垒,产品才是,大家都用一样的环境、一样的语言搞开发,有人就能搞出一套完整的操作系统,有人搞一个小插件还全是bug;你能搞出yy这种超级产品,微软却只能弄出一个一塌糊涂的msn。” But, in space industry, important not only product, related core technologies, as well as technical chain, for example launch vehicle, valuable is not the launch vehicle of some model, but is its back technical chain, the multi-step rocket technologies, solids and liquid rocket promote the technology, the flight control technique, even is the first-level rocket retrieval technique, once these technical chains handle, in the future will have bright prospects in many domains.” “不过,在航天领域,重要的不只是产品,还有相关核心技术,以及技术链条,就比如运载火箭,值钱的不是某一个型号的运载火箭,而是它背后的技术链条,多级火箭技术、固体、液体火箭推动技术,飞控技术,甚至是一级火箭回收技术,一旦这些技术链条搞定,未来在多个领域都会大有可为。” Li Mu hear of having a smattering of knowledge, his thing to the spae-x are not clear, therefore can only consult modestly: „Is such technical civil range big?” 李牧听的一知半解,他对spae-x的东西并不清楚,所以只能虚心请教:“这样的技术民用的范围大吗?” Elon Musk thinks, said: „If others asks me, I said certainly am very big, but the eldest child you asked me, I do not dare to talk nonsense with you, I can only say, the space technology transfers the civil range and space is indefinite at present, but the market space of commercial aerospace was very potential.” 埃隆马斯克想了想,说:“如果是别人问我,我一定说很大,但老大你问我,我不敢跟你瞎扯淡,我只能说,航天技术转民用的范围和空间目前还不确定,不过商业航天的市场空间本身还是很有潜力的。” Li Mu nods, said: Said in detail.” 李牧点了点头,道:“详细说说。” Elon Musk said earnestly: Nasa is also good, is the China space agency is also of good, the space body Europe is also good, their technical and product although is various, but on basic has a completely same common ground.” 埃隆马斯克认真说道:“无论是nasa也好,还是华夏的航天部门也好、欧洲的航天机构也好,他们的技术和产品虽然各不相同,但根本上却都有一个完全一样的共同点。” What is?” “是什么?” Spends the money of government!” “花政府的钱!” Elon Musk spoke with confidence: These government apparatus research and development space technologies, most do not care is the cost, nasa accumulates the world in the space industry technology first, but their technologies are the cold war US (America) government pound by 100 billion dollars with the number, the China launch vehicle the development momentum was very fierce for these years, but the back cannot leave the concerted effort support of government, has the government as the support, the launch vehicle that these organizations research and develop, has a common problem, is he performance-to-price ratio is too low!” 埃隆马斯克侃侃而谈:“这些政府机构研发航天技术,最不在意的就是成本,nasa在航天领域的技术积淀世界第一,但他们的技术都是冷战时期美国政府用数以千亿的美金砸出来的,华夏的运载火箭这几年发展势头很猛,但背后也离不开政府的通力支持,有政府作为支撑,这些机构研发出来的运载火箭,都有一个通病,就是他吗的性价比太低!” At this point, Elon Musk came the spirit, saying that the saliva flies horizontally: Eldest child you looks, draws an analogy, the US (America) government must do one set of military satellite localization system, gives nasa the launching missions of more than ten satellites completely, to the military, their types frequently in thousand hundred million USD constructions, did not care about in the launch cost to be many hundreds of millions dollars, the China government thinks that was also same, but the commercial satellite back donor may be in the future the enterprise rather than the country, if the launching cost were too high, the development of entire commercial satellite can be greatly affected, but how the nasa big master yamen did not study the cost reduction like this, therefore commercial launching market because. Staying at a high level of cost bogs down, if presented a private business at this time, studies full power how reduces the launch cost of commercial satellite, what aspect can that be?” 说到这里,埃隆马斯克来了精神,唾沫横飞的说道:“老大你看,打个比方,美国政府要搞一套军用卫星定位系统,把十几颗卫星的发射任务全部交给nasa,对军方来说,他们这种动辄千亿美元的架构里,根本不在意发射成本里多了几亿美金,华夏政府想必也是一样,但是将来商用卫星背后的金主可都是企业而不是国家,如果火箭发射成本太高,整个商用卫星的发展都会受到很大的影响,可偏偏nasa这样的大老爷衙门根本不去研究怎么降低成本,所以商用火箭发射的市场才因为成本的居高不下而停滞不前,如果这时候出现一家私企,全力研究如何降低商用卫星的发射成本,那会是一种什么样的局面?” Li Mu suddenly realize. 李牧恍然大悟 Elon Musk in originally is such together the market that in the aerospace stares. 埃隆马斯克在航天上盯的原来是这么一块市场。 He said that indeed really has the truth, government's big investments in aerospace project, pursue forever is the high performance rather than the performance-to-price ratio, therefore the development of entire space industry, seems like an abnormal official market, if makes the analogy with the automobile, seems each country to have a state-owned automobile manufacturing enterprise, they are researching and developing the quickest automobile, the carrying capacity biggest automobile and science and technology that strongest automobile run desperately, the automobile that therefore they produce or quick such as the lightning, or the power outstandingly and or technical is powerful, however the only shortcoming on is expensive/noble must die, let alone average person. Buys, even/including his mother burns the oil unable to burn. 他说的确实有道理,政府在航天项目上的大笔投入,追求的永远是高性能而非性价比,所以整个航天领域的发展,就好像是一个畸形的官方市场,如果拿汽车来作比喻,就好像每个国家都有一个国有汽车生产企业,他们都在拼命研发跑的最快的汽车、载重最大的汽车、科技型最强的汽车,所以他们造出来的汽车或者快如闪电、或者动力超群、又或者科技性强大无比,但是唯一的缺点就是贵的要死,普通人别说买回去开,连他妈烧油都烧不起。 However, has the automobile demand, not only each country, has many individuals besides the country as well as individual group holds ORIJEN (long for) to the automobile, at this time, if the company concentrates on building the performance-to-price ratio highest car(riage), then can certainly occupy the biggest initiative in this market. 但是,有汽车需求的不只是每一个国家,除了国家之外还有许多个人以及个人团体对汽车抱有渴望,这种时候,如果有一家公司专注于打造性价比最高的车,那么一定能够在这块市场中占据最大的主动权。 If Instant Messenger Corporation must launch ten satellites to the fixed track, looks for the US (America) launch probably to need 30 hundred million USD, looks for the China launch probably to need 20 hundred million USD, but if company ten hundred million USD can do, moreover can keep two hundred million USD profits to oneself, without a doubt in the future in the market of commercial satellite, its development opportunities will become very greatly. 一家通讯公司如果要放十颗卫星到固定的轨道,找美国发射可能需要三十亿美元,找华夏发射可能需要二十亿美元,但是如果有一家公司十亿美元就能做,而且还能给自己留两亿美元的利润,毫无疑问将来在商用卫星的市场里,它的发展空间将变得非常大。 Thinks of here, Li Mu smacks the lips, looks at Elon Musk said: Sounds like has that a meaning, but the earlier period of this industry invests is too big, moreover can you have the technological strength? Impossible to start to research and develop from zero, where therefore does your technological strength come?” 想到这里,李牧咂了咂嘴,看着埃隆马斯克说:“听起来好像有那么点意思,不过这种行业的前期投入太大,而且你总要有技术储备吧?不可能从零开始研发,所以你的技术储备从哪里来?” Nasa!” Elon Musk said with a smile: You can understand that nasa a majority abandoned treasure house, its inside has the talents and technologies of massive idle, so long as we had the adequate start fund, I can find a big pile to be skilled in some technology from nasa, and can change external appearances only some technology for the talent who oneself uses rapidly, starts to develop from 70% and 80% completions directly, the start will be quick, moreover our research and development directions are different from these organizations, can the greatest avoidable risk.” “nasa!”埃隆马斯克笑道:“你可以把nasa理解成一个大部分都被废弃的宝库,它里面有大量闲置的人才和技术,只要我们有了足够的起步资金,我可以从nasa找到一大堆精通某种技术并且能迅速把某种技术改头换面为己用的人才,直接从70%、80%的完成度开始开发,起步会非常快,而且我们的研发方向跟这些机构不同,可以最大程度的避免风险。” Then, Elon Musk explained: Makes an analogy with the automobile, what nasa research is expensive top f1, what Europe and Japan study is V12, double turbo-charged, horsepower frequently over 1000 supercar, what China research is v8, turbo-charged, horsepower over 600 but also does not have that expensive race car, we bring their engine technology and engine mission training technologies, the chassis training technologies as well as other electronic assistance technologies, but we do not produce the race car, not to make supercar not to produce the race car, produces four vat 2.0 economical models, produces this model, when the time comes in the market of this rank, we on is. Biggest owner.” 说完,埃隆马斯克解释道:“拿汽车来做个比喻,nasa研究的是昂贵顶尖的f1,欧洲和日本研究的是v12、双增压、马力动辄一千以上的超跑,华夏研究的是v8、增压、马力在600以上但又没那么昂贵的跑车,我们拿来他们的发动机技术、发动机变速箱调教技术、底盘调教技术以及其他的电子辅助技术,但是我们不造赛车、不造超跑也不造跑车,就造四缸2.0的经济车型,把这个车型造好,到时候在这一级别的市场里,我们就是最大的占有者。” Considers, in market when Ten Million USD f1 and million USD Ferrari as well as hundreds of thousands of USD Mercedes Mercedes, we made tens of thousands USD Toyota Prius, what aspect that can be......” “试想一下,当市面上只有千万美元的f1、百万美元法拉利以及数十万美元的梅赛德斯奔驰时,我们造出了几万美元的丰田普锐斯,那会是一种什么样的局面……” If concerned about the status, Li Mu really does not think that to Elon Musk applauds, while delivers him one to hold in the mouth, no wonder this fellow is called Silicon Valley Iron Man, seems like doing the unthinkable industry . Moreover the prospect is not optimistic, but actually he already already the future development opportunities plan unusual was clear, spae-x possibly cannot catch up with nasa for a lifetime, cannot catch up with the China long journey series, unable to catch up with the Russian space agency, but he, so long as can achieve compared with their performance-to-price ratio takes a higher position enough. 如果不是碍于身份,李牧真想一边给埃隆马斯克鼓掌,一边送他一句叼叼叼,怪不得这家伙被称为硅谷钢铁侠,看起来是在搞匪夷所思的行业,而且前景一点也不乐观,但其实他早就已经把未来的发展空间规划的非常清楚了,spae-x可能一辈子也赶不上nasa,赶不上华夏长征系列、赶不上俄罗斯航天局,但是他只要能做到比他们性价比更高就足够了。 In the market is Ferrari this type of car(riage), the car(riage) can only be the toy of top rich and powerful people, what after all can afford Ferrari is few of society, but once Prius this type robust anti- produces the fuel-efficient hybrid model to appear on the market, to the general public, the attraction may too be big, can bear a consumer of Prius, the specific energy bears a Ferrari consumer to be at least many ten thousand times, this is Elon aspiration of Musk in aerospace. 当市场上全是法拉利这种车的时候,车就只能是顶级富豪的玩具,毕竟能买得起法拉利的是社会的极少数,可一旦普锐斯这种皮实抗造又省油的混动车型面世,对普通民众来说,吸引力可就太大了,能负担起一辆普锐斯的消费者,比能负担一辆法拉利的消费者至少多出万倍,这才是埃隆马斯克在航天上的抱负。 Moreover, Li Mu is the internet technology family background, he knows that progressing by leaps and bounds of internet technology development, the position of satellite in future internet development will be getting more and more important, previous life, Facebook, google and Apple have own satellite launching plan probably, not being able to do well for more than ten years later was the satellite internet time, by that time, not only the internet product needed own satellite, the hardware development also needed own satellite, likely in the future light/only will be under own product system, the demands of dozens satellite launching, so it seems like, the commercial satellite launch market prospect of the world truly was broad. 而且,李牧本身就是互联网技术出身,他知道互联网技术发展的突飞猛进,卫星在将来互联网发展中的地位将越来越重要,上辈子,faebook、google、苹果好像都有自己的卫星发射计划,搞不好十几年以后就是卫星互联网的时代了,到那个时候,不只是互联网产品需要自己的卫星,硬件发展也需要自己的卫星,很可能未来光是自己的产品体系下,就有几十颗卫星发射的需求,这么看来,全世界的商用卫星发射市场前景确实非常广阔。 After straightening out these, Li Mu suddenly to Elon Musk aerospace career felt especially interested, he to Elon Musk said: Elon, you have convinced me, when you want to start officially, can look for me at any time, I prepare 100 million dollars to play with you together.” 理顺了这些之后,李牧忽然对埃隆马斯克的航天事业感到格外有兴趣,他对埃隆马斯克说道:“埃隆,你已经说服我了,什么时候你想正式开动,可以随时来找我,我准备一亿美金跟你一起玩一玩。” That was really good!” Elon Musk said earnestly: In this case, I will wrap a sum of money to come out from PayPal next year, we invest to do the aerospace together!” “那真是太好了!”埃隆马斯克认真的说:“如果这样的话,明年我就从paypal套一笔钱出来,咱们一起来投资干一干航天!”
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