MOTGAR :: Volume #3

#249: Mexican financial crisis edge

LNMTL needs user funding to survive Read More

Buys the news so to be why expensive from the consultant firm? 从咨询公司买消息为什么那么贵？ Because their noses are quicker than the dog young, expands the message source to the government, army, customs and Ministry of Communications, all parties arrange need to spend, to buy, their Han Xuan eats anything to do at noon, high-level tacit does not go to them, one day oneself must use, has become the unspoken rule in business political circle. 因为他们的鼻子比狗仔还灵通,将情报来源扩展到政府、军队、海关、交通部,各方打点都需要花钱,假如想买,他们连韩宣中午吃过什么都能搞到,高层默契不去动他们,总有一天自己也要用到,已经成为一种商政圈里的潜规则。 In the material that Anthony brings writes Dariaux, Point72-Asset-Management of hedge fund Cohen of Bridgewater-Associates Corporation, even in 1992 in British success ambush pound, at one fell swoop famous George Soros, this Quantum Group manager , the high-sounding talk goes to Mexican capital Mexico City to take vacation. 安东尼拿来的资料上写着Bridgewater-Associates公司的达里奥、Point72-Asset-Management对冲基金的科恩,甚至1992年在英国成功狙击英镑,一举出名的乔治-索罗斯,这位量子基金管理者,也高调前往墨西哥首都墨西哥城度假。 For fear that others do not know, leads one group of people in John F. Kennedy International Airport swaggering, the name is optimistic about the Mexican economy, wants to go to invest. 生怕别人不知道,在肯尼迪机场带着一群人大摇大摆,名义是看好墨西哥经济,想去进行投资。 91 years of London event, financial big alligator Soros uses 10 billion US dollars attack pound, triggering the international fund to follow up, finally causes the pound to depreciate 7-12, but Soros through the operation of oversell speculative or fictious buying, makes a profit of finally about 1 billion US dollars. 91年伦敦事件,金融大鳄索罗斯动用100亿美元袭击英镑,引发国际基金纷纷跟进,最后导致英镑贬值7-12,而索罗斯通过卖空买空的操作,最后获利10亿美元左右。 Has not concealed the whereabouts, perhaps is because financial deficit high foreign exchange reserves Mexico, has become their dishes, one flock of wolves besiege to be able the steamed bun in tray to turn into the meat. 没有掩饰行踪,也许是因为财政赤字高过外汇储备的墨西哥,已经成了他们的盘中餐,一群狼围攻才能把盘子里的馒头变成肉。 The people with high aspirations want the moving point brain, can not discover right, he is obviously making one with make the big cake together. 有心人只要动点脑子,就能从中发现不对劲,他明显是在让人跟上来一起做大蛋糕。 „Looks for the helper......” “找帮手啊……” Han Xuan looked that the Mexican economic data fluctuates strangely, the mouth is whispering. 韩宣看完墨西哥经济数据诡异波动,嘴里嘀咕着。 The report form demonstration of Mexican Ministry of Finance announcement in the first three quarters of this year, the economic project trade deficit was 21 billion US dollars, it is expected that this year the trade deficit total amount surpasses 28 billion, last year the international hot money asset net current entered over 30 billion, the entire Mexican economy was based on these floating capitals. 墨西哥财政部公布的报表显示今年前三个季度,经济项目逆差达到210亿美元,预计今年逆差总额超过280亿,去年国际热钱资产净流入超过300亿,整个墨西哥经济就建立在这些游资的基础上。 The Mexican government the short-term bond with US dollar hook, altogether issued 27 billion short-term bonds a while ago, stabilizes the confidence of foreign investor, now 1 billion requisitioning, in the first half of 1995 expired. 15.74 billion US dollars, but the entire Mexican foreign exchange reserves total amount, is only 8 billion US dollars. 墨西哥政府将短期债券跟美元挂钩,前段时间总共发行了270亿短期债券,来稳定国外投资者的信心,如今还有10亿没有申购,其中1995年上半年到期的。就有157.4亿美元,而整个墨西哥外汇储备总额,却只有八十亿美元。 The hot money urges the Mexican currency peso to appreciate unceasingly, the current account deficit should not over account for the GDP 3 this limit for a long time. Mexico the current account deficit has been 29 billion US dollars now, is equivalent to GDP the eights. 热钱促使墨西哥货币比索不断升值,经常项目赤字不应该长期超过占国内生产总值三这一限度。墨西哥如今经常项目赤字已经达290亿美元,相当于国内生产总值的八。 The average annual rates of growth of 1980-1989 years of GDP are only 0.7, the per capital GDP is lower than the level of growth rate of population, the inflation steadily rises, in 1987 was the record-setting 159.2 ratios. 1980-1989年国内生产总值的年平均增长率仅为0.7,人均国内生产总值低于人口增长率的水平,通货膨胀持续上升,1987年达到创纪录的159.2的比率。 The serious foreign loan payment burden and its fund escape. Intensifying makes the investment fund dry up, the business failure and unemployment and government gradually change the Mexican close introverted development mode, the extent of opening to the outside world unceasingly increases. 沉重的外债支付负担、本国资金外逃。加剧使投资资金枯竭,企业倒闭和失业、政府逐渐改变墨西哥封闭的内向发展模式,对外开放程度不断加大。 The person who even Han Xuan this begins studies the finance, can see that the Mexican economic crisis is breaking out, the local government must know, therefore they decide to promote the currency devaluation...... 连韩宣这个初学金融的人,都能看出墨西哥经济危机正在爆发,当地政府不可能不知道,所以他们决定推动货币贬值...... This looks like in Han Xuan simply with courting death has not distinguished, short-term bond mostly in these floating capital, once declares Bi depreciates surely initiates to undersell massively. 这在韩宣看来简直跟找死没区别,短期债券大多在这些游资手里,一旦宣币贬值肯定引发大规模抛售。 The Mexican government is incapable of exchanging so many short-term bonds radically, will cause the government confidence crisis inevitably, intensifies the foreign capital to flee. 墨西哥政府根本无力兑换这么多短期债券,势必会引发政府信任危机,加剧外资出逃。 The floor floating capital screens out. Establishes that weak industrial system can also be calm and steady on it? 底层游资抽走。建立在它上面那薄弱的工业体系还能安稳？ Naturally cannot! 当然不会！ Invests to the foreign capital of stock market, because the peso depreciation suffers the loss, thus causes the stock market to fall. 投资到股市的外国资本,由于比索贬值遭受损失,从而导致股市下跌。 The stock market falls will intensify the Mexican currency devaluation in turn, causing this crisis to get stronger and stronger. 股市下跌反过来又会加剧墨西哥货币贬值,致使这场危机愈演愈烈。 When the time comes depreciated many governments to say does not calculate, these floating capitals can take responsibility. 到时候贬值多少政府说了不算,那些游资才能做主。 This is a naked open intrigue. 这是场赤裸裸的阳谋。 Mexico applied for 20 billion US dollars long-term low-interest loans to the United States government last month, President Clinton has the meaning of complying, but after Congress discussed twice was rejected, the Federal Reserve the raising interest rate attraction international idle fund, where will just deliver again money, the reason is the Mexican economic picture is good. 墨西哥上个月向美国政府申请一笔200亿美元的长期低息贷款,克林顿总统有答应的意思,但在国会两次讨论后被拒绝,美联储刚加息吸引国际游资,哪会再把钱送出去,理由是墨西哥经济状态良好。 Han Xuan always felt that is passing the flavor of stock plot. 韩宣总感觉里面透着股阴谋的味道。 In the financial world is hiding the extremely powerful strength. Gambling after financial behind-the-scenes plotting, decides in our real world truly the financial operation. 金融世界里隐藏着极其强大的力量。在金融黑幕后的博弈,才真正决定我们现实世界中金融运行。 The Soviet economy collapses, United States earns how much money is a riddle, but definitely is not 28 trillion US dollars of later generation network rumor. It looks like in Han Xuan, that article is completely a lie. 苏联经济崩溃,美国从中赚取多少钱一直是个谜,但肯定不是后世网络谣传的28万亿美元。在韩宣看来,那篇文章完全是个谎言。 91 years of Gulf War gold price is to actually rise, shorts 2000 tons gold to cause to crash, naturally is fabricates. 91年海湾战争时期黄金价格其实是上涨的,做空2000吨黄金导致崩盘,自然是凭空捏造出来。 London event Soros leads over 28 billion floating capitals, makes the pound depreciate 7 to 12, at that time the British government had 26 billion US dollars reserve. To plunder the Soviet 28 trillion wealth to need to pay the big price can be imagined, entire United States cannot collect that startled day asset. 伦敦事件索罗斯带领超过280亿的游资,才让英镑贬值七到12,那时候英国政府有260亿美元储备。想掠夺苏联28万亿财富需要多付出大代价可想而知,整个美国都凑不出那笔惊天资产。 Money does not exist by the entity of currency, calculates to draw the conclusion in reverse, most of them the bounced check evaporation that started out along with Soviet Union. 钱并不是以货币的实体存在,逆向推算得出结论,它们大多都随苏联开出的空头支票蒸发了。 However United States makes a profit at least over 5 trillion US dollars, this money secret investment capital construction and military research and development, social welfare and other projects, promoting United States to welcome more than ten years of high rise periods continuously. 不过美国获利至少在5万亿美元以上,这笔钱隐秘投入基建、军事研发、社会福利等项目,促进美国连续迎来十多年的高增长期。 It is not difficult to see, these years economic crisis revolved to relate the close country with United States. 不难看出,这几年的经济危机都围绕跟美国关系密切的国家。 90 years of Japan, 92 years of Britain, forthcoming Mexico? They involve with US dollar too deeply, said that does not have the United States shadow, Han Xuan dead does not believe. 90年的日本,92年的英国,还有即将到来的墨西哥？它们都和美元牵扯太深,说是没有美国的影子,韩宣死都不信。 Calculates asset that then needs to use about 1.5 billion US dollars, remaining 1 billion planned to invest the United States stock market, currently as if has a better congenial opportunity. 计算出接下来需要动用的资产在十五亿美元左右,剩下十亿原本打算投入美国股市,现在似乎有了更好的投机机会。 Mexican currency peso rising are too many, the stock market also rises are too many, many to letting Han Xuan feels relieved. 墨西哥货币比索涨的太多,股市也涨的太多,多到让韩宣感到安心。 Shorts one way is always a very adventurous matter, after the Huaxia economic crisis, the news review toward the time economic crisis event, really has to mention the Mexican gold/metal crisis. 单向做空从来都是件很冒险的事情,华夏经济危机之后,新闻回顾往期经济危机事件,确实有提到墨西哥金危机。 In addition the exhaustive data analysis, each financial data analysts are the outstanding mathematician, the Anthony form final, has the financial crisis probability with red pen labelling clearly is 75. 加上详尽的数据分析,每个金融数据分析师都是优秀数学家,安东尼的表格最后,清晰用红笔标注发生金融危机概率为75。 The tertiary insurance makes Han Xuan think it is necessary to go to insert a foot , the egg cannot place in the same basket, getting down the heavy note no doubt makes a profit to be many, will inevitably also cause the old gentleman their worry, too radically is not good to be familiar with. 三重保险让韩宣认为有必要进去插一脚,鸡蛋不能放在同一个篮子里,下重注固然获利多,势必也会引起老爷子他们的担心,太激进可不是个好习惯。 „ Mr. Anthony, reassigns 700 million from East West Bank, follows in behind of these floating capitals, pounds the matter of plate do not act, no one will pay attention to our small company. “安东尼先生,从华美银行里抽调七亿,跟在那些游资的后面,砸盘的事情不要出手,没人会注意我们这家小公司。 Inquired the sound of Mexican Parliament, so long as they decided to use the floating exchange rate, conducted the peso depreciation, all shorted, I despised the peso. ” 打听墨西哥议会的动静,只要他们决定采用浮动汇率,进行比索贬值,全都做空,我看低比索。” The Han Xuan finger taps on the table. 韩宣手指在桌上轻敲。 The sound only then he can hear with Anthony, Harris bought the sandwich to eat, no one knew a several hundreds of millions US dollars plan, conducted in this small cafe. 声音只有他跟安东尼能听见,哈里斯去买三明治吃了,没人知道一笔数亿美元的计划,在这家小咖啡馆里进行。 Anthony is wrinkling the forehead, originally prepares to urge him to come out with 100 million US dollars, it is expected that ten times of stocks buy can gain to 70 million US dollars to 150 million US dollars spatially, now his instead fraught with uncertainty, „so many?” 安东尼皱着眉心,本来准备劝他拿一亿美元出来,预期十倍期货沽空能赚到7000万美元到一亿五千万美元,现在他反而畏首畏尾了,“这么多？” „Un, a peso exchange rate decides in upward fluctuation 5 sells to level, downward 35 buy up to level.” “嗯,比索汇率定在上行浮动五卖出平仓,下行35买入平仓。” „You thought that the peso can fall 35?!” “你觉得比索能跌35？！” „ Possibly also continues, you underestimated the ambition of that fellows. “可能还不止,你小看那帮家伙的野心了。 This matter my grandfather does not need to know, Mr. Anthony, I thinks you understand my meaning...... ”( ~ ~) 这件事我爷爷没有必要知道,安东尼先生,我想你明白我的意思......”(~~)
To display comments and comment, click at the button