IAIH :: Volume #8

#718: Speculative mentality


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Chapter 718 speculative mentality 第718章投机心态 Entire in May, Eric and Chris are the Firefly investment company buy stock telecom operator Sprint to rush about. 整个五月份,艾瑞克克里斯都在为萤火虫投资公司入股电信运营商sp日nt而奔波。 Both sides had determined in early May the approximate transaction plan, Sprint invests the direction detection to issue additionally the 400 million stock stock to Firefly, received exchange for 1 320 million USD capital, after the transaction had ended, the Sprint total capital stock expands to 4 billion stocks, the ownership percentage of Firefly investment is 10%, and gains the Sprint Board of Directors two director seats. This transaction wants to be successful, due to the promotion of Firefly investment, Sprint will also take advantage of opportunity to use the Qualcomm CDMA technology. 双方在五月上旬就已经确定了大致的交易方案,sp日nt萤火虫投资定向增发4亿股股票,换取13.2亿美元的注资,交易结束后,sp日nt的总股本扩大到40亿股,萤火虫投资的持股比例为10%,并获取sp日nt董事会两个董事席位。这笔交易只要能够成功,在萤火虫投资的推动下,sp日nt也将顺势采用高通dma技术。 However, after both sides draw up the transaction plan, the matter was far from the conclusion, although the legal threshold of communication profession was relaxing gradually, the profession of but as any country strictly controlling, wanted smoothly to enter, but also needs through layer upon layer to verify. 不过,双方拟定交易方案后,事情却远远没有结束,虽然通讯行业的法律门槛在逐渐放宽,但作为一个任何国家都会严格管制的行业,想要顺利进入,还需要通过层层审核。 Firefly and Sprint first need to submit plan to United States Federal Trade Commission ( t ) carry on the anti- monopoly verification. The Firefly investment not only has related to Qualcomm of mobile communication floor technical research and development, but also has controlled stock the production two-way charges for cellular phones base depot and Nokia of terminal device, if buys stock Sprint again successfully, basically has made a connection with an entire mobile communication industry chain, the suspicion of intention monopoly is obvious. 萤火虫sp日nt首先需要将方案提交给美国联邦贸易委员会(t)进行反垄断审核。萤火虫投资不但拥有涉及到移动通信底层技术研发的高通,还控股了生产移动通讯基站和终端设备的诺基亚,如果再成功入股sp日nt,基本上就打通了一整条移动通信产业链,意图垄断的嫌疑非常明显。 If ten years ago, after this transaction plan submits, immediately is rejected by t, but in recent years, Federal Government relaxes the legal restriction of telecom industry continuously, this causes the possibility that the transaction plan has to adopt. 如果是十年前,这份交易方案提交后就会立刻被t驳回,但最近几年,联邦正府持续不断地放松电信行业的法律限制,这才使交易方案存在通过的可能性。 Consecutively for several times attended the public hearing of t about this transaction in Eric and Chris personally, after as well as starts in secret the personal connection public relations lobbied, at the end of May, t finally has authorized the transaction of both sides. 艾瑞克克里斯连续几次亲自出席t关于这次交易的听证会,以及私下里发动人脉公关游说后,五月底,t终于批准了双方的交易。 Deals with t at the same time, the Firefly investment and Sprint also traded the committee to the federation( color) and Federal Communications Commission have submitted the related application. After variable biggest t that pass/test passes, the remaining two departments are simpler. Almost in t authorizes to trade in one week after plan, the color and one after another has authorized both sides' transaction application. 应付t的同时,萤火虫投资和sp日nt也向联邦交易委员会(色)和联邦通讯委员会提交了相关申请。变数最大的t那一关通过之后,剩下的两个部门就简单很多。几乎在t批准交易方案后的一周内,色和就陆续批准了双方的交易申请。 On May 26, the Firefly investment and Sprint signing ceremony officially is held in Manhattan Sprint group Headquarters. 5月26号,萤火虫投资和sp日nt的签字仪式在曼哈顿sp日nt集团总部正式举行。 At release conference after the signing ceremony, the Firefly investment and Sprint high-level official public announced to the outside that Sprint will carry out in -depth cooperation with Qualcomm, with CDMA technology construction nationwide mobile communications network. 在签字仪式后的发布会上,萤火虫投资和sp日nt高层正式公开对外宣布,sp日nt将与高通公司进行深度合作,采用dma技术建设全国性的移动通信网络。 One month ago. After attaining Firefly invests the 300 million USD directional bond to finance, Verizon announced that joins the CDMA camp. At this time, has the Sprint groups about half a and b kinds of mobile communication license plate to announce again joins, symbolizes that for several years the conflict about United States two-way charges for cellular phones technical standard settle down finally, destiny that the CDMA technology not only escaped possibly completely get rid, but also occupied United States two-way charges for cellular phones domain more than 50% markets successfully. 一个月前。在拿到萤火虫投资3亿美元的定向债券融资后,ve日zon就已经宣布加入dma阵营。此时,拥有近半数a、b类移动通信牌照的sp日nt集团再次宣布加入,标志着几年来关于美国移动通讯技术标准的争端终于尘埃落定,dma技术不但摆脱了可能被完全抛弃的命运,还成功占据了美国移动通讯领域一半以上的市场。 The release conference just ended, Qualcomm stock price in the open market starts the straight line to rise, before the same day closed, the stock price in several hours rose suddenly 8%. Each price breaks 30 USD critical junctions with ease, achieves 31.5 USD, to the end of last year 17 USD about stock prices, six months, the Qualcomm market value rose 85%, to turning is only the time issue. 发布会刚刚结束,公开市场上的高通股价就开始直线上扬,截止当天收盘前,股价在几个小时内暴涨了8%。每股价格轻松突破30美元大关,达到31.5美元,相对于去年年底17美元左右的股价,短短半年时间,高通市值已经上涨了85%,离翻倍只是时间问题。 „When my previous time goes to San Diego, the Qualcomm communication facility manufacturing works just started the selected location, wanted to go into production massively at least is also the end of the year matter. Although Sprint complies to use the CDMA technology, actually impossible and other six months. They decide to install the GSM network in the Washington area temporarily. Moreover, Qualcomm originally the plan and Sony cooperation jointly constructed the factory, the plan are overruled by me, even if must cooperate, the object definitely should also be Nokia, this was also Nokia enters the good opportunity in United States market. Qualcomm in 1991 we control stock Nokia, to Nokia has been authorized the complete set CDMA technology, Nokia, although concentrates on the GSM research and development, but this aspect some foundations, they can also provide a group of specialized administrative personnel to the Qualcomm equipment manufacturer factory......” “我上次去圣迭戈时,高通的通信设备制造工厂才刚刚开始选址,想要大规模投产至少也是年底的事情了。sp日nt虽然答应采用dma技术,却不可能等半年时间。他们决定暂时在华盛顿地区铺设gsm网络。另外,高通本打算和索尼合作共同建设工厂,方案被我否决了,即使要合作,对象肯定也应该是诺基亚,这也是诺基亚进入美国市场的好时机。高通在1991年我们控股诺基亚之前,就向诺基亚授权了全套dma技术,诺基亚虽然专注于gsm研发,但这方面还是有一些基础,他们也能向高通的设备制造工厂提供一批专业的管理人员……” The time is next day. Just is on Saturday, yesterday had bustled about for day, the majority of matters terminate finally, Chris then brought Emily to come Eath Hampton together. 时间是第二天。刚好是周六,昨天忙碌了一天,大部分事情终于完结,克里斯便带着艾米丽一起来了东汉普顿 However, they entered the Eric study room to mention the official business quickly, the topic started certainly from Qualcomm, Chris was very clear, Eric recent a series of layouts, very big reason for Qualcomm. 不过,两人很快就又钻进了艾瑞克书房谈起了公事,话题当然还是从高通开始,克里斯很清楚,艾瑞克最近的这一系列布局,很大原因还是为了高通 Eric by the chairback, listening to Chris saying that said: „Speaking of GSM and CDMA, I am thinking that both sides definitely were everyone do not have the means to expel the market any side in a short time, therefore, the mutual fusions of these two technologies were the most correct paths, like this time DVD form conflict, two big DVD technical standard camps was intelligent, not wasted for ten years eight years to decide the victory and defeat on r + and r- again, but has chosen the mutual support.” 艾瑞克靠在椅背上,听克里斯说完,道:“说到gsmdma,我就在想,双方在短时间内肯定是谁也没办法将任何一方赶出市场的,所以,这两种技术的相互融合才是最正确的道路,就像这次的dvd格式争端,两大dvd技术标准阵营就非常聪明,没有在r+和r-上再浪费十年八年时间分出胜负,而是选择了相互支持。” Standard generation of DVD already some years, but, stemming from a DVD pirating cost more inexpensive anxiety, Hollywood several big movie Film Studio has been doing everything possible to delay the DVD extrusion opportunity. dvd的标准制定已经有些年头,只不过,出于对dvd盗版成本更加低廉的忧虑,好莱坞几大电影制片厂一直在想方设法拖延dvd的推出时机。 But delays now, was impossible to delay again, has learning from another's mistakes of Sony recording tape lawsuit, Hollywood is impossible to expect through the lawsuit again, prevents the appearance of DVD, it is expected that after the summer files, several big DVD manufacturers will promote the DVD player. 但拖延到现在,已经不可能再拖延下去,有着索尼录像带官司的前车之鉴,好莱坞也不可能再期望通过诉讼,阻止dvd的出现,预计在暑期档之后,几大dvd制造商就会推出dvd播放器。 Chris also knows some about the information in this aspect, hears saying: „The standard that two big DVD technology camps grasp also belongs actually with the generation technology, the mutual support is not difficult, but GSM and CDMA are two generations of completely different technical standards, wants to fuse, basically is impossible.” 克里斯对这方面的信息也了解一些,闻言道:“两大dvd技术阵营掌握的标准其实还属于同代技术,相互支持并不困难,但gsmdma已经是两代完全不同的技术标准了,想要融合,基本上不可能。” Eric said: I do not mean the fusion of operator level, but is the fusion in terminal, Nokia has the GSM technology, Qualcomm has the CDMA technology, both sides have deep technical accumulation in these two standards, therefore, we must promote simultaneously can support the GSM network and CDMA network cell phone, the difficulty is not definitely big.” 艾瑞克道:“我并不是说运营商层面的融合,而是终端方面的融合,诺基亚拥有gsm技术,高通拥有dma技术,双方在这两种标准上都拥有非常深厚的技术积累,所以,我们要推出同时能够支持gsm网络和dma网络的手机,难度肯定不大。” Supports many network standard double networks to pass, the entire net to pass the cell phone to be common in the later generation. But in 1995, the new generation digital communication technology just the wide scope was popular, several big technical camps are thinking how to squeeze out the market the opposite party, simply has not considered coexistence fusion even, therefore, the multi- nets pass the cell phone absolutely is a very novel concept. 支持多种网络制式的双网通、全网通手机在后世非常普遍。但在1995年,新一代数字通讯技术才刚刚大范围普及,几大技术阵营都想着如何将对方挤出市场,根本没有考虑过共存甚至融合,因此,多网通手机绝对是一个非常新颖的概念。 The Chris vision has shone immediately. Said: Eric, this idea was really good, I thought that was inferior we will hold the teleconference tomorrow, with Jorma? Ollila and Irwin Jacobs discussed that this matter, simultaneously supports GSM and CDMA network cell phone. In the Europe definitely not too big market, but North America had determined GSM and CDMA coexistent aspect, this type of cell phone definitely has bright prospects.” 克里斯的目光顿时就亮了起来。道:“艾瑞克,这个主意真是太棒了,我觉得,不如我们明天就召开电话会议,与约玛?奥利拉欧文?雅各布商议一下这件事,同时支持gsmdma网络的手机。在欧洲肯定没有太大市场,但北美已经确定了gsmdma共存的局面,这种手机肯定大有可为的。” You arrange, «The Lost World: Jurassic Park» screened on June 2, I can also treat one week of time in New York probably,” Eric replied, did he also plan recently with Nokia CEO Jorma? Ollila chatted in detail. “你来安排吧,《侏罗纪公园2》在6月2日上映,我大概还可以在纽约待上一周时间,”艾瑞克答道,他心里也打算最近与诺基亚eo约玛?奥利拉详细谈谈。 Nokia earliest detains to pour the communications equipment manufacturer of GSM technology, this is also it can in the key that recent years the rapidly rises, although has not monopolized the CDMA technological patent like Qualcomm completely. But Nokia is in global several big communications equipment manufacturers are also most in the GSM technology patent quantity. 诺基亚是最早押注gsm技术的通讯设备制造商,这也是它能够在最近几年迅速崛起的关键,虽然没有像高通那样完全垄断dma技术专利。但诺基亚gsm技术方面的专利数量也是全球几大通讯设备制造商中最多的。 How many months ago, after the Firefly investment buys stock the Qualcomm news spreads, Jorma? Ollila to the Eric procedure has had the doubts in the email, in his opinion, forces out the Qualcomm CDMA technology to serve the Nokia benefit. Now, Eric not only has not done such, instead vigorously supported the CDMA technology to capture United States 50% two-way charges for cellular phones market, Jorma? Even if Ollila the response of surface is not intense. Will produce at heart definitely the lump. 几个月前,萤火虫投资入股高通的消息传出后,约玛?奥利拉就在电子邮件中对艾瑞克的做法产生了疑惑,在他看来,封杀高通dma技术才更加符合诺基亚的利益。现在,艾瑞克不但没有这么做,反而大力支持dma技术抢下了美国一半的移动通讯市场,约玛?奥利拉即使表面的反应并不激烈。心里肯定会产生疙瘩。 Although in the telephone and mail, Eric explained to him intention that oneself such make. But many communications definitely have the advantage. 虽然在电话和邮件中,艾瑞克已经向他解释了自己这么做的意图。但更多的沟通肯定是有好处的。 Also only then maintains the full communication, understood that the respective intention, Eric can feel relieved the industry under name gives the Manager people to handle, he can also find more time to handle other matters. 也只有保持充分的沟通,理解各自的意图,艾瑞克才能放心将名下的产业交给经理人们去打理,他也能够抽出更多时间做其他事情。 Chris routinely pulls out the small memorandum from the shirt pocket, writing down that this matter treats a matter seriously, said to Eric: This matter solved. I think that we should chat the Yahoo matter.” 克里斯习惯性地从衬衫口袋里掏出小小的备忘录,将这件事郑重其事的记下来,才对艾瑞克道:“这件事解决了。我想我们应该谈谈雅虎的事情了。” I with Ian their several communications, their approximate ideas I have been understanding recently that Eric nodded, said. “我最近一直在和伊恩他们几个沟通,他们的大致想法我也明白,”艾瑞克点了点头,说道。 Initially that stockholder's rights drive contract this year expires, the team of Firefly investment started to appraise the work achievement of Yahoo key management level. In order to determine stockholder's rights reward share that they can obtain. 当初那份股权激励合约今年到期,萤火虫投资的团队已经开始对雅虎主要管理层的工作成果进行评估。以便确定他们可以获得的股权奖励份额。 Plan that Eric most starts, after this stockholder's rights drive plan had ended, launches the IPO plan of Yahoo. 艾瑞克最开始的计划,是在这次股权激励方案结束后,启动雅虎ipo计划。 But recently, several high levels consistently hope that Eric can extend the Yahoo date. Their reasons are also quite full, the capital market pursues the profit extremely, once Yahoo goes on the market, the company has to face the achievement pressure, but gives up fortifying at every step the stability development strategy that now. 但最近一段时间,几位高层都一致希望艾瑞克能够推延雅虎的上市日期。他们的理由也相当充分,资本市场是极度追求利润的,一旦雅虎上市,公司就不得不面临业绩压力,而放弃现在步步为营的稳定发展策略。 Persuade by Yahoo management relapse, Eric also starts to give careful consideration to this issue. 雅虎管理层的反复游说下,艾瑞克也开始慎重考虑这个问题。 A few years ago, Eric idea originally went on the market Yahoo in 1995, waits for Internet bubble rapid expansion, the Yahoo stock in his hand also went through the banning time, can leverage the big fund while the opportunity of Yahoo stock price equivalent height from the capital market. 几年前,艾瑞克原本的想法是在1995年将雅虎上市,等互联网泡沫迅速彭胀,他手中的雅虎股票也度过了禁售期,可以趁着雅虎股价虚高的时机从资本市场套现出大笔资金。 In the final analysis, the Eric initial plan also had very obvious speculative mentality, in the subconscious only to think the leverage left the field, but not Yahoo management well. 说到底,艾瑞克当初的计划还带着非常明显的投机心态,潜意识里只想着套现离场,而不是将雅虎好好的经营下去。 Precipitated after these years disposition, Eric also realized, if maintained this mentality, his enterprise definitely will present the bottleneck in some future one day. 经过这几年的心性沉淀,艾瑞克也意识到,如果一直保持这种心态,他的事业肯定会在未来某一天出现瓶颈。 Chris sees Eric to reveal the ponder look, asked: „, Eric, how do you think now?” 克里斯艾瑞克露出思考的神色,问道:“那么,艾瑞克,你现在是怎么想的?” „Do you, you also approve their ideas?” Eric smiled, asked. “你呢,你也赞成他们的想法吧?”艾瑞克笑了笑,反问道。 Chris not mince nodded: Now capital market invests to the Internet hounds, therefore, I thought that we retard for several years to go on the market, wait for Yahoo to have a brighter prospective profit, can definitely yield a bigger income.” 克里斯毫不掩饰地点了点头:“现在资本市场对互联网投资非常追捧,所以,我觉得我们延迟几年上市,等雅虎拥有一个更加明朗的盈利前景,肯定能够获得更大的收益。” Eric recalled, in original space and time, the NASDAQ market started the exponential order in 1998, the short two years rose suddenly from more than 1000 points 5000. 艾瑞克回忆了下,原时空中,纳斯达克市场在1998年开始指数级,短短两年就从1000多点暴涨到了5000点大关。 If Yahoo went on the market after 1998, fund that the release stock raised for the first time, absolutely is the present several times, but, under the strict financial management system, this fund will be used in Yahoo development, completely was not the Eric individual, although can also shift some funds through some methods, but had big legal risk, definitely has not let go to leverage stock in the hand is safer. 如果雅虎在1998年之后上市,首次发行股票募集的资金,绝对是现在的好几倍,只不过,在严格的金融监管体系下,这笔资金将用于雅虎本身的发展,并不完全属于艾瑞克个人,虽然通过一些方法也可以将部分资金转移出来,但存在很大法律风险,肯定是没有将自己手中的股份脱手套现更加安全。 Leverage, leverage, leverage...... 套现,套现,套现…… Eric talked over several years of this word in the heart repeatedly, suddenly realized that oneself present is not short of money to spend, leverages again the multi- funds, do not serve as the investment. 艾瑞克在心中反复念叨了几年这个单词,突然意识到,自己现在根本不缺钱花啊,套现出来再多资金,不还是要用作投资吗。 In brain curved was stroked suddenly straight, Eric also has a feeling of suddenly seeing the light, the corners of the mouth shows the smile, said to Chris: That this, postpones the IPO plan, but, in any event, we should catch up, in becomes effective before Microsoft that contract completes IPO.” 脑子里的这道弯突然被捋直,艾瑞克也产生一种豁然开朗的感觉,嘴角露出微笑,对克里斯道:“那就这样吧,推迟ipo计划,不过,无论如何,我们应该赶在与微软那份合约生效之前完成ipo。” This is natural,” Chris also relaxed to smile, if Eric insisted, he has not known how really should persuade: Said that Microsoft Windows 95 must formally issue in August, but, I think that you should use this set systematically, the Microsoft stock price recently has been rising, does the market as if look good regarding this system brand-new?” “这是当然,”克里斯也跟着放松地笑了起来,艾瑞克如果坚持的话,他还真不知道该怎么劝说:“说起来,微软indos95在八月份就要正式发布了,不过,我想你应该已经用上这套系统了吧,微软的股价最近一段时间一直在上扬,市场对于这套全新地系统似乎非常看好?” Although Microsoft Windows 95 determined that issued at the end of August, but in fact, many test edition classes came out, outside United States, pirates the disc is the wide scope was more popular. 微软indos95虽然确定在八月底发布,但实际上,已经有很多测试版本流出来,在美国以外,盗版光碟更是已经大范围普及。 Eric also naturally used this previous life very familiar operating system, said: I thought that this system may make Microsoft monopolize the operating system market, therefore, our following several years, very may be in sharp opposition with Microsoft, Microsoft has completed in the dominating status of operating system market, certainly must march toward the Internet market. I cannot even affirm, Bill? Can Gates tear up that agreement forcefully, after all, Microsoft was very possible not to be willing to wait by 1999.” 艾瑞克也理所当然地用上了这套前世非常熟悉的操作系统,道:“我觉得这套系统或许会让微软垄断操作系统市场,所以,我们接下来几年,很可能还要与微软针锋相对,微软完成了在操作系统市场的称霸地位,肯定要朝互联网市场进军的。我甚至不能肯定,比尔?盖茨会不会强行撕毁那份协议,毕竟,微软很可能不会愿意等到1999年。” I thought actually Microsoft started not to be law-abiding now,” Chris smiled, said: Steve called me couple days ago, said is that side Microsoft has contacted with him, hopes that he can leave Yahoo, joins the Microsoft forthcoming Internet department.” “我倒是觉得微软现在就已经开始不安分了,”克里斯笑了笑,道:“史蒂夫前几天跟我打电话,说是微软那边联系过他,希望他能够离开雅虎,加入微软即将成立的互联网部门。” Steve that Chris said is responsible for Steve of Yahoo technologies division? Mitnick, the good friend of Chris university time. It looks like in Eric, Yahoo how many main supervisors, Ian Gunier, Jeff? Locker, Steve? Mitnick as well as Tina? Brown, in four people, Steve? Mitnick to Yahoo is most important, because he is almost responsible for the core technologies research and development of Yahoo several big main Internet products, if he were poached, Yahoo wanted certainly turbulent a long time. 克里斯说的史蒂夫就是负责雅虎技术部门的史蒂夫?米特尼克,克里斯大学时期的好朋友。在艾瑞克看来,雅虎的几位主要管理人,伊恩?格尼尔,杰夫?洛克、史蒂夫?米特尼克以及蒂娜?布朗,四人中,史蒂夫?米特尼克雅虎来说才是最重要的,因为他几乎负责雅虎几大主要互联网产品的核心技术研发,如果他被挖走,雅虎肯定要动荡很长一段时间了。 Eric said with amazement: Really?” 艾瑞克惊讶道:“真的?” Chris nodded, sees the look that on the Eric face shows to worry about, said with a smile: But, you do not need to be worried that I knew about the Steve disposition, since he calls me, explained that he will definitely not leave Yahoo.” 克里斯点了点头,见艾瑞克脸上露出担忧的神色,笑道:“不过,你不用担心,我对史蒂夫的性格非常了解,他既然打电话给我,就说明他肯定不会离开雅虎的。” Eric is certainly impossible such thoroughly to feel relieved that asked: That other people?”( To be continued.) 艾瑞克当然不可能就这么彻底放下心来,问道:“那其他人呢?”(未完待续。)
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