IAIH :: Volume #7

#625: We continue

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After becoming the Firefly Pictures shareholder, Warren Buffett or David West, start to pay attention to the Hollywood film market........ 成为萤火虫影业股东之后,无论是沃伦.巴菲特还是大卫.韦斯特,都开始关注好莱坞电影市场。…。… After Eric lecture, three people realized that this year Hollywood attains successful «The Mummy» and «Saving Private Ryan» greatly and other movies, is «Beverly Hills Cop 3» or of «JAG» failure, with the hairstyle strategy is the comprehensive release that Eric said that therefore they have also approved the conclusion in first article. 艾瑞克讲完之后,三人都意识到今年好莱坞无论是大获成功的《木乃伊》、《拯救大兵瑞恩》等影片,还是失败的《比弗利山警探3》或者《执法悍将》,采用的发型策略都是艾瑞克所说的全面发行,因此他们也认可了第一篇文章中的结论。 Three people could not have calmed down to inquire why Eric must speak these, but followed the Eric movement to open the next page of materials peacefully. 三个人都没有沉不住气到询问艾瑞克为什么要讲这些,而是安静地跟随艾瑞克的动作翻开了下一页资料。 „First I must state a point, after” Eric opens another page of documents, said: „My plan closes Disney's Hand-Drawn Animation Department, but had not said absolutely must stop the Disney's animation, I must make the Disney's animation studio change more advanced digital animation from traditional Hand-Drawn Animation.” “首先我要声明一点,”艾瑞克翻开又一页文件后,道:“我的计划是关闭迪斯尼的手绘动画部门,但绝对没有说过要停止迪斯尼的动画制作,我只是要让迪斯尼的动画工作室从传统的手绘动画转向更加先进的数字动画制作。” The Buffett three people know certainly this point, nods to echo in abundance with a smile, why they will be also clear Eric saying that now the outside has exaggerated Eric to want with Firefly to substitute for the Disney brand regarding the hearsay of Eric this action the situation. 巴菲特三人当然知道这一点,纷纷笑着点头附和,他们也清楚艾瑞克为什么会这么说,现在外界对于艾瑞克这一举动的传闻已经夸张到艾瑞克想要用萤火虫取代迪斯尼品牌的地步了。 Eric smiled, said: „That, the following material was Disney from 1991 to the contrasts of four animated films 1994 distributed, «Beauty and the Beast» and «Aladdin» and «Toy Story» and «A Bug's Life». These four movies have separately represented typical 2D Animation and 3D Animation. Overall, we can see «Beauty and the Beast» and «Aladdin» total Box Office are slightly over two 3D Animation, but from the Box Office curve analysis, we are not difficult to discover that «Beauty and the Beast» and «Aladdin» is very standard long-line showing pattern, eight weeks of Box Office of two movies accounts for the total Box Office proportion separately only then 57% and 53%, but «Toy Story» and «A Bug's Life» corresponding digit actually achieves 89% and 88%, this is the typical comprehensive release pattern movie. Meanwhile, we can see that «Toy Story» and «A Bug's Life» screening silver screen quantity separately fell below 1000 when 13 weeks and 12 weeks rapidly. Has given other movies the silver screen. But «Beauty and the Beast» and «Aladdin» maintains the time of 1000 silver screen numbers actually distinguishes 25-week-longs and 21 weeks, I believe the next few years, the comprehensive release will occupy in the market mainstream situation thoroughly, institute line business to gain many Box Office. Is absolutely impossible for a long time the situation that makes this type wrest away the massive silver screens to continue to appear.” 艾瑞克笑了笑,道:“那么,接下来的资料是迪斯尼1991年到1994年之间发行的四部动画电影的对比,《美女与野兽》、《阿拉丁》、《玩具总动员》和《虫虫危机》。这四部影片分别代表了典型的2d动画和3d动画。总体而言,我们可以看到《美女与野兽》和《阿拉丁》的总票房是略微超过两部3d动画的,但从票房曲线分析,我们不难发现,《美女与野兽》和《阿拉丁》是非常标准的长线放映模式,两部影片的八周票房占据总票房的比例分别只有57%和53%,而《玩具总动员》和《虫虫危机》的相应数字却达到89%和88%,这是再典型不过的全面发行模式影片。同时,我们可以看到,《玩具总动员》和《虫虫危机》的上映银幕数量分别在13周和12周时迅速滑落到了1000家以下。将银幕让给了其他影片。而《美女与野兽》和《阿拉丁》保持1000块银幕数的时间却分别长达25周和21周,我相信未来几年,全面发行彻底占据市场主流的情况下,院线商为了获取更多的票房。绝对不可能让这种长期霸占大量银幕的情况继续出现。” Tom Murphy asked: „Eric, this as if is not enough to show that 2D Animation soon the eliminated destiny, we can definitely make 2D Animation also use distribute the pattern comprehensively, «The Lion King» seems this.” 汤姆.墨菲问道:“艾瑞克,这似乎并不足以证明2d动画即将被淘汰的命运,我们完全可以让2d动画也使用全面发行模式,《狮子王》似乎就是这样的。” David West and Warren Buffett trace nodded. 大卫.韦斯特和沃伦.巴菲特都不着痕迹地点了点头。 Eric actually as if expected them such to ask that the smiling face invariably said: „That. We continue to read next material.” 艾瑞克却似乎料到了他们会这么问,笑容不变地说道:“那么。我们继续看下一份资料。” The Buffett three people have looked at each other one, again turns toward the next page. 巴菲特三人对视了一眼,再一次朝下一页翻去。 „Then I must explain that why is 2D Animation cannot use the comprehensive release pattern,” Eric looked at Tom Murphy, said: „We just achieved «The Lion King» are only a tacit understanding of event movie, from «The Little Mermaid», 《Who Framed Roger Rabbit》 and «Beauty and the Beast» and in the Box Office trends of «Aladdin» these animation movies, we had not discovered that the 2D Animation market presents the dilatancy the phenomenon, therefore hopes that everybody can neglect «The Lion King» temporarily, Ok?” “接下来我要解释的,就是为什么2d动画不能采用全面发行模式,”艾瑞克看了眼汤姆.墨菲,道:“我们刚刚已经达成了《狮子王》只是一部事件电影的默契,从《小美人鱼》、《兔子罗杰》、《美女与野兽》和《阿拉丁》这些动画影片的票房趋势上,我们都没有发现2d动画市场出现扩容的现象,所以希望大家能够暂时忽略《狮子王》,可以吗？” Tom Murphy nodded awkwardly, Warren Buffett and David West looked to the material in hand. 汤姆.墨菲尴尬地点了点头,沃伦.巴菲特和大卫.韦斯特已经看向了手中的资料。 Eric then said: „What everybody present is a single week Box Office contrast form of four animated films. We can discover that the single week Box Office fluctuations of two 2D movies are unstable, even if to eight weeks later, will have the condition of going up and down abruptly, sometimes Box Office fell more than 5 million USD, but the next week rose suddenly more than 8 million, another two movies had with the city people to the Box Office curve that movie similar stability fell, why will have this condition, the answer in the next page.” 艾瑞克接着说道:“大家眼前的是一张四部动画电影的单周票房对比表格。我们可以发现,两部2d影片的单周票房波动非常不稳定,哪怕到了八周之后,也会出现忽高忽低的状态,有时候票房已经滑落到了500多万美元,但下一周突然又涨到了800多万,另外两部影片却拥有与城人向影片类似的稳定滑落的票房曲线,为什么会出现这种状况,答案在下一页。” After four people simultaneously turn the page, Eric looks up to three people. Saying with a smile: „Was first columnar captures the attention compared with illustration that astonishing sliver?” 四人同时翻页之后,艾瑞克抬头看向三人。笑道:“是不是第一幅柱状比例图那条惊人长条吸引住了目光？” After a Eric such reminder, even if had not noted, the Buffett three people also saw first at this time columnar compared with illustration that towering sliver. 经过艾瑞克这么一提醒,即使原本没有注意到,巴菲特三人此时也看到了第一幅柱状比例图那条突兀的长条。 „The present stick plot has enumerated the 2D Animation movie and 3D Animation movie disparity in age section view shade crowd proportion separately, for more direct-viewing demonstration result. I will observe the shade crowd age to delimit( 0-13 -year-old),( 14-18 -year-old),( 19-28 -year-old) and( the >\; 28 year) these four sectors, these data came from the Disney past market survey report, the accuracy was without a doubt.” “眼前的这副柱状图分别列举了2d动画电影和3d动画电影不同年龄段的观影人群比例,为了更加直观的展示结果。我将观影人群年龄划成了（0-13岁）、（14-18岁）、（19-28岁）和（>\;28岁)这四个区间,这些数据来自于迪斯尼以往的市场调查报告,准确性毋庸置疑。” Eric explained simply, said: „We can see obviously, in the 2D Animation movie, 0-13 -year-old young view shade crowds occupy the total audiences proportion achieves astonishingly 41%. But the same data of 3D Animation movie, this proportion is only 26%. However, this does not mean that liked the 3D Animation children's audience quantity reducing, because the audience quantity over 13 years old dramatically increased, in the stick plot, two kinds of movies have formed the striking contrast in 14-18 -year-old view shade crowd proportion digit with 0-13 sectors, respectively was 17% and 29% , 19-28 -year-old age sectors, this contrast was similarly obvious, separately was 7% and 16%, I believe that in the middle of this age sector 2D Animation that 7% crowd, definitely also had a large part is to lead the child goes together, but over 28 years old watched a 2D Animation piece of audience, I believe that basically was to satisfy child's view. Shade need.” 艾瑞克简单解释了一下,道:“我们可以明显看到,2d动画电影中,0-13岁的低龄观影人群占据总观众人数的比例达到惊人的41%。而3d动画电影的同一数据,这个比例却只有26%。但是,这并不意味着喜欢3d动画的儿童观众数量减少了,而是因为13岁以上的观众数量大幅增加,柱状图中,两类影片在14-18岁的观影人群比例数字与0-13区间形成了强烈的反差,分别为17%和29%,19-28岁的年龄区间,这个反差同样明显,分别是7%和16%,我相信,这个年龄区间当中2d动画那7%的人群,肯定也有很大一部分是为了带孩子一起去的,而28岁以上观看2d动画片的观众,我相信基本上都是为了满足孩子的观。影需要。” Summarized the data, Eric then no longer read the document, gained ground saying: „Disney has had screens the convention of beforehand 2D Hand-Drawn Animation movie every seven years, this is because Disney itself also 7-13 -year-old children's audiences as main view shade community, but every seven years, one group of brand-new children's audiences appear. Through these detailed data statistics, we are not difficult to discover why the 2D Animation movie Box Office curve very not stably as well as why can only adopt the pattern of long-line showing.” 简述了一下数据,艾瑞克便不再看文件,抬头道:“迪斯尼一直都有每七年重新上映之前的2d手绘动画电影的惯例,这是因为迪斯尼本身也将7-13岁的儿童观众作为主要观影群体,而每七年,都有一批全新的儿童观众出现。通过这些详细的数据统计,我们不难发现,为什么2d动画电影票房曲线非常不稳定以及为什么只能采取长线放映的模式。” „Because audience young of 2D Animation movie is very serious, some children's audiences do not have the independent capacity, must lead to carry on the view shade by the guardian. Even if during the summer vacation, adult also needs to work, they often can only can lead the child to watch the 2D Animation piece through some weekends or special holidays, to coordinate the guardians indefinite time arrangement, Film Studio must use soon eliminated long-line showing pattern, to fully tap the 2D Animation Box Office potential.” “因为2d动画电影的观众低龄化十分严重,这部分儿童观众是没有自主行为能力的,必须由家长带领才能进行观影。而哪怕是暑假期间,成年人也是需要工作的,他们往往只能通过周末或者一些特殊的节假日才能够带孩子去观看2d动画片,为了配合家长们非常不确定的时间安排,电影公司就必须采用即将被淘汰的长线放映模式,以充分挖掘2d动画的票房潜力。” „The 3D Animation movie is different. This brand-new animated film pattern was not only liked by the young children's audience similarly, but also received has formed the approval of young people as well as part of grown audiences of independent purchasing power. During just view shade crowd proportion statistics, the children's audience proportion of 3D Animation movie, only then 26%, but the audience proportion sum total of 14-28 -year-old main movie customer segment achieved 45%. This proportion and Live-Action Film audience is almost the same, why this is also the 3D Animation movie can be the same with Live-Action Film, with marketing for hydraulic products of comprehensive release.” “3d动画电影则不同。这种全新的动画电影模式不但同样被低龄儿童观众喜爱,而且还受到已经形成了单独购买力的青少年以及一部分成年观众的认可。刚刚的观影人群比例统计当中,3d动画影片的儿童观众比例只有26%,而14-28岁的主要电影消费群体的观众比例总和达到45%。这个比例与真人电影观众相差无几,这也是为什么3d动画影片可以和真人电影一样,采用全面发行的市场策略。” The Eric lecture, the Buffett three people were deep in the short thought that Eric have not disturbed three people. Lifted the hand to look at the watch, the unconscious 15 minutes will soon pass by, he does not want to make the dining room attendant rush rashly, therefore turned head to gather the Kelly Haynes ear in a soft voice to speak several words. 艾瑞克讲完,巴菲特三人都陷入了短暂的沉思,艾瑞克并没有打扰三人。抬手看了看手表,不知不觉15分钟已经即将过去,他可不想让餐厅侍应生贸然闯进来,于是扭头凑到凯莉.海恩斯耳边轻声说了几句话。 Although Kelly Haynes some do not abandon the Eric high-spirited speech, is actually obedient sets out outward to walk on own initiative. When arrives at the gate, Kelly Haynes realized that just Eric had almost gathered her ear bank, perhaps forwards some to kiss to her cheeks slightly again, but she has not actually had the slight resistance, at this time instead felt that the earlobe feels hot inexplicably by the Eric aura has stroked. 凯莉.海恩斯虽然有些不舍艾瑞克意气风发的演讲,却还是很听话地主动起身朝外走去。走到门边时,凯莉.海恩斯才意识到,刚刚艾瑞克几乎凑到了她的耳畔,或许稍微再向前一些就能吻到她的脸颊,但她却没有生出丝毫的抵触情绪,此时反而感觉到被艾瑞克气息拂过的耳垂莫名地发烫起来。 Hears behind the slight closing sound. Eric looks to three people of recovering, said with a smile: „, Do we continue?” 听到身后轻微的关门声。艾瑞克看向回过神来的三人,笑道:“那么,我们继续？” The Buffett three people nodded, although in their hearts can also pick up many questions, but looks in the hand also to remain the larger part the material, three people of subconsciousness thought that at present this young people affirmed had considered any issue that they have possibly been able to inquire about. 巴菲特三人跟着点了点头,虽然他们心中还能挑出不少疑问,但看着手中还剩一大半的资料,三人下意识觉得,眼前这个年轻人肯定已经考虑过了他们可能会询问的任何一个问题。 Tom Murphy and David West were almost convinced by Eric at this time at heart, but Buffett looked that is bringing the thick applause and earnest to the Eric vision, he this year was 65 years old, although is as before energetic. But issue of death started to puzzle the other him and company partners, Berkshire Hathaway many partners more than once inquired that the issue of his company next successor, but Buffett several children have not held the post of the ability of this duty obviously. 汤姆.墨菲和大卫.韦斯特此时心里几乎已经被艾瑞克说服,而巴菲特看向艾瑞克的目光中更是带着浓浓的赞许和热切,他今年已经65岁,虽然依旧精力充沛。但死亡的问题已经开始困扰他和公司的其他合伙人,伯克希尔.哈撒韦的很多合伙人都不止一次地询问他公司下一任继承人的问题,而巴菲特的几个子女显然并没有担任这一职务的能力。 Although Buffett believes one at least can also work for over ten years, but also once joked, even if after died, will manifest a spirit to manage Berkshire Hathaway. But anybody includes him, is very clear, once he passed away, Berkshire Hathaway will welcome the unknowable great change absolutely. 虽然巴菲特相信自己至少还能够工作十年以上,还曾经开玩笑说哪怕自己死后也会显灵来管理伯克希尔.哈撒韦。但任何人包括他自己,都很清楚,一旦他去世,伯克希尔.哈撒韦绝对会迎来不可知的巨变。 Buffett also more than once tries to train a successor, but several times end in failure diligently. But at present this can also see clearly an industry growth trend in the «The Lion King» Box Office so hot greatly situation calmly, and does not seek after the benefit to choose the young people of long-range planning for a while. The keen insight and firm execution that has are the preconditions that the successor in his ideal most should have. 巴菲特也不止一次地试图培养一个继承人,但几次努力都以失败告终。而眼下这个在《狮子王》票房如此大热的情况下还能冷静地看清楚一个行业发展趋势,并且不贪图一时利益而选择长远计划的年轻人。所拥有的敏锐洞察力和坚定执行力一直都是他理想中的继承人最应该具备的先决条件。 ...... 只是…… In the Buffett heart quick has the intense regret, the wealth and status that Eric has now, represents him to be unlikely to be the Berkshire Hathaway next leader, because Buffett hopes that own successor can concentrate on the management of Berkshire Hathaway, but do not divert attention other, but the industry in Eric hand also wanted to be huger than Berkshire Hathaway, oneself give him Berkshire Hathaway, Eric is also very difficult to branch out too many energy to manage this family/home same huge company. 巴菲特心中很快又生出强烈的遗憾,艾瑞克现在拥有的财富和地位,也代表着他不太可能去担任伯克希尔.哈撒韦的下一任领导人,因为巴菲特更希望自己的继承人能够专注于伯克希尔.哈撒韦的经营,而不要分心其他,但艾瑞克手中的产业已经比伯克希尔.哈撒韦还要庞大许多,自己将伯克希尔.哈撒韦交给他,艾瑞克也很难分出太多精力去管理这家同样庞大的公司。 Although confirmed this point regrettably, but in the Buffett heart some were not as before willingly. 虽然遗憾地确认这一点,但巴菲特心中依旧有些不甘心。 Eric not clear Buffett thinks anything at heart again, sees three people not to have the objection, said: „, Said that affected the 2D Animation external factor, is the internal factor. I think that everybody had definitely realized two cost variances of movies, right, two 2D Animation movies that here enumerates, cost in 30 million, but «Toy Story» and «A Bug's Life» cost actually separately is 50 million USD and 80 million USD.” 艾瑞克并不清楚巴菲特心里再想什么,见三人没有异议,说道:“那么,说完了影响2d动画的外部因素,接下来是内部原因。我想大家肯定意识到了两种电影的成本差异,没错,这里所列举的两部2d动画电影,成本都在3000万以内,而《玩具总动员》和《虫虫危机》的成本却分别是5000万美元和8000万美元。” Here, Eric has stopped, said: „First, I must explain that an issue, 2D or 3D Animation, the main cost is the cost of human resources, two each frame image of animated films artificially draws up, but the plan carrier is different. Because Hand-Drawn Animation has developed above the half century, therefore the entire profession is mature, the animator quantity are also many, even if therefore is Disney animation studio that group of world most splendid Hand-Drawn Animation masters, the yearly salary surpasses 100,000 USD also few. But the digital animator is actually the occupation that just started, the talented person is very deficient. Therefore, after «Toy Story» succeeds, to prevent the Pixar skilled digit animator was poached by other Film Studio, Firefly has to raise their salary levels. Similarly, after «The Lion King», if Disney must continue to maintain Hand-Drawn Animation Department, this batch of yearly salary averages in animator future monthly salary possibly over 1 ten thousand USD of five ten thousand USD, in other words, the 2D Animation production cost will turn time......” 说到这里,艾瑞克停顿了一下,道:“首先,我要解释一个问题,无论是2d还是3d动画,主要的成本都是人力资源成本,两种动画电影的每一帧图像都是人工绘制出来的,只不过绘制载体不同。因为手绘动画已经发展了半个世纪以上,所以整个行业非常成熟,动画师数量也非常多,因此哪怕是迪斯尼动画工作室那批全世界最出色的手绘动画师,年薪超过10万美元的也寥寥无几。但数字动画师却是一个刚刚兴起的职业,人才十分匮乏。因此,《玩具总动员》成功之后,为了防止皮克斯熟练的数字动画师被其他电影公司挖走,萤火虫不得不提高他们的薪资水平。与此类似,《狮子王》之后,如果迪斯尼要继续维持手绘动画部门,这批原本年薪平均在五万美元的动画师将来的月薪都可能超过1万美元,也就是说,2d动画的制作成本将会翻倍……” Tom Murphy hears here, suddenly breaks Eric with a smile, said: „Eric, you just added that «The Lion King» is the event movie?” 汤姆.墨菲听到这里,突然笑着打断艾瑞克,道:“艾瑞克,你刚刚还说,《狮子王》是事件电影？” „Naturally, but I think that does not mean entire Hollywood thinks, they did not think the 2D Animation golden age did arrive?” Eric knows that Tom Murphy is cracking a joke, explained that continues saying: „The «The Lion King» production cost has surpassed 45 million USD, if turns time, the future 2D Hand-Drawn Animation cost will possibly surpass 100 million USD.” “当然,但我这么想,并不意味着整个好莱坞都这么想,他们不都觉得2d动画的黄金时代到来了吗？”艾瑞克知道汤姆.墨菲只是在开玩笑,解释了一句,就继续说道:“《狮子王》的制作成本就已经超过4500万美元,如果翻倍的话,将来的2d手绘动画成本可能将超过1亿美元。” Eric remembers clearly that when original space and time in 1999, he through the network accidentally saw Disney propaganda company newest 2D Hand-Drawn Animation «Tarzan of the Apes», has made in history the banner of cost highest animated film, the «Tarzan of the Apes» production cost of foreign propaganda has achieved 150 million USD, but afterward North America Box Office of this movie had 170 million, experience that according to Eric now accumulated, the cost added on the huge release expense, even if this honorable person animation calculated the following peripheral profit, the possibility that Disney lost money was also big. 艾瑞克清楚地记得,原时空中1999年,他通过网络偶然看到迪斯尼宣传公司最新一部2d手绘动画《人猿泰山》时,打出了史上成本最高动画电影的旗号,对外宣传的《人猿泰山》制作成本已经达到了1.5亿美元,而随后这部影片的北美票房却只有1.7亿,根据艾瑞克现在已经积累的经验来看,成本加上庞大的发行费用,这部真人动画即使计算后续的周边利润,迪斯尼亏损的可能性也非常大。 „That, if in the next few years, the institute line business no longer is willing to waste the silver screen resources to continue is the 2D Animation movie implements the long-line release, reaches as high as the 100 million USD cost as well as possibly rises the announcement investment into 50 million USD on average, we almost can determine, only if continues to present «The Lion King» such event movie, otherwise the company will be very difficult to take back the movie through Box Office again the cost. Then, you will definitely say that the peripheral income of animated film is always very rich, then, we continue to look at the next statistical data......” “那么,如果未来几年,院线商不再愿意浪费银幕资源继续为2d动画电影实行长线发行,高达一亿美元的成本以及平均可能上涨到5000万美元的宣发投入,我们几乎可以确定,除非继续出现《狮子王》这样的事件电影,否则公司将很难再通过票房收回影片的成本。然后,你们肯定会说动画电影的周边收入从来都是非常丰厚的,那么,我们继续看下一份统计资料……” The Buffett three people were poked by the Eric last few words inexplicably smile, with a laugh continue to turn one page, Kelly Haynes that in the meantime, just left also silently returned to side Eric.( To be continued.) 巴菲特三人被艾瑞克最后一句话莫名地戳中笑点,都笑呵呵地继续翻了一页,同时,刚刚离开的凯莉.海恩斯也无声无息地回到了艾瑞克身旁。(未完待续。)
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