IAIH :: Volume #6

#578: Offer

LNMTL needs user funding to survive Read More

Chapter 579 第579章 Buffett itself favors recording tape to rent the industry, for this reason he in detail has also studied the Blockbuster material, from the mid-80's, the profit that the recording tape industry has not been inferior to movie Box Office, but has Blockbuster of 3000 branch stores without doubt is the recording tape renting industry ‚Walmart’, Blockbuster last year profit for the year not compared with Hollywood seven big Film Studio few many. ↖, moreover this recording tape rents the giant also to have the huge cash flow that Buffett most settles on. Recording tape industry these years prosperous were not false, but Buffett did not think that in this industry has the bubble, therefore, in the Eric spoken language the contempt to Blockbuster makes Buffett feel that has doubts: „Eric, don't you favor the recording tape industry the prospect?” 巴菲特本身是非常看好录像带租赁产业的,为此他还详细研究过百视达的资料,从八十年代中期,录像带产业所产生的利润就已经不亚于电影票房,而拥有3000家分店的百视达无疑是录像带租赁业的‘沃尔玛’,百视达去年的年利润并不比好莱坞七大电影公司少多少。↖,而且这家录像带租赁巨头还拥有巴菲特最看中的庞大现金流。录像带产业这些年一直欣欣向荣不假,但巴菲特却不觉得这项产业中存在泡沫,因此,艾瑞克言语中对百视达的轻视让巴菲特感到非常疑惑:“艾瑞克,难道你不看好录像带产业的前景吗？” DVD that the recording tape and will soon present rents the industry at least also to need the prosperous more than ten years, Eric must certainly favor this industry, business model that at least Blockbuster chain store that he does not favor soon several years later rapid eliminated. 录像带和即将出现的dvd租赁产业至少还要繁盛十多年时间,艾瑞克当然不可能不看好这种产业,他不看好的至少百视达连锁店即将在几年之后被迅速淘汰的经营模式而已。 „Mr. Buffett......” “巴菲特先生……” Eric just opened the mouth, Buffett has interrupted his words in a soft voice, smiles was saying warm: „Eric, you can call me Warren, I do not hope that among us the communication likely is official business negotiation such, do you think?” 艾瑞克刚刚开口,巴菲特轻声打断了他的话,微笑着温言道:“艾瑞克,你可以叫我沃伦,我不希望我们之间的沟通像是正式的商业谈判那样,你觉得呢？” „Good, Warren,” Eric nods with a smile: „If you go to some Blockbuster to rent the chain store, will discover that wants to seek for some recording tapes to be always troublesome, various charges of Blockbuster are unreasonable. I believe that if there is a better recording tape to rent the business model to appear, Blockbuster was eliminated is almost the inevitable matter.” “好吧,沃伦,”艾瑞克笑着点点头:“如果你去过一些百视达租赁连锁店的话,就会发现想要寻找一些录像带总是非常麻烦,并且,百视达的各种收费也非常不合理。我相信,如果有更好的录像带租赁商业模式出现,百视达被淘汰几乎是必然的事情。” Buffett does not have the stance of any rich and powerful people , to continue to pursue asks: „I think that you affirmed had considered you have said some better business model?” 巴菲特丝毫没有任何富豪的架势,继续追问道:“我想你肯定已经考虑过你说过的某种更好的商业模式了吧？” „Naturally. For example network. We can establish a special recording tape to rent the website. The customers want some movie, only needs to input the name of movie on the website, can find the related movie with ease rents the information in detail, we even can also establish the special mail delivery system, making the customer rent the recording tape becomes more convenient.” “当然。比如说网络。我们可以建立一个专门的录像带租赁网站。顾客想要某部电影,只需要在网站上输入电影的名字,就可以轻松地找到相关电影的详细租赁信息,我们甚至还可以建立专门的邮递系统,使顾客租赁录像带变得更加便捷。” The concern of Buffett over high-tech industry is not too many, this can see clue from his investment portfolio, Berkshire Hathaway involves basically is the traditional industries, but. The information superhighway plan that because Clinton Administration vigorously is promoting at present, Buffett also therefore contacted many relevant information: „Eric, you did not think that the present network user were too few?” 巴菲特对高科技产业的关注并不是太多,这从他的投资组合中就可以看出倪端,伯克希尔.哈撒韦旗下涉及的基本上都是传统产业,不过。因为目前克林顿正府正在大力推行的信息高速公路计划,巴菲特也因此接触到了不少相关信息:“艾瑞克,你不觉得现在的网络用户太少了一些吗？” Eric recently actually has not paid attention to the growth of North America network user, but he can find the similar illustration very much easily: „Truly does not calculate too, but can land the user of Internet often to have the considerable power of consumption. Moreover, more than ten years ago the personal computing just produced time, perhaps no one had realized that this expensive use seems not the too big domestic electric appliances can sell several million annually, in these ten years, North America and even the world accumulated tens of millions had the user of personal computing. The economic strengths of these people will not be usually bad, in Internet content more and more rich situation. I believe that most people will choose involvement network.” 艾瑞克最近一段时间倒是没有关注北美网络用户的增长量,但他很轻易地就能够找到相似的例证:“确实不算太多,但能够登陆互联网的用户往往都具有相当的消费能力。而且,十多年前个人电脑刚刚产生的时候,或许谁也没有意识到,这种昂贵的似乎用处并不是太大的家用电器现在每年能够卖出几百万台,在这十年当中,北美乃至全世界已经积累了数千万拥有个人电脑的用户。这些人的经济实力通常都不会太差,在互联网内容越来越丰富的情况下。我相信大部分人都会选择介入网络。” Buffett in studying Eric the process of personal data, has landed Yahoo web portal specially, but also has established own online mailbox account number, although many people thought that his individual style is conservative, but Buffett is actually a time not the person who forgets to study and accept the new thing. He thought that online mailbox contact method truly be quickly more than letter, just because of various current hardware condition limits, where Buffett cannot find out these network services the prospective profit, Buffett is always a pursue profit investor, and insisted principle that strictly invests to be reported back, if invested tens of millions USD actually unable to be repaid, he could not find out a matter also to need that any continued to make. 巴菲特在研究艾瑞克的个人资料的过程中,也特意登陆过雅虎门户网站,还建立了自己的在线邮箱账号,虽然很多人都觉得他的个人风格非常保守,但巴菲特却是一个时刻不忘学习和接受新事物的人。他觉得在线邮箱这种联系方式确实要比信件快捷很多,只不过因为目前的各种软硬件条件限制,巴菲特想不出这些网络服务的盈利前景在哪里,巴菲特从来都是一个追求利润的投资人,并且严格坚持投资必须得到回报的原则,如果投入了数千万美金却不能得到回报,他想不出一件事还有任何继续做下去的必要性。 „Eric, before, me looks at Yahoo web portal that you have invested to establish, what I want to know, you establish this website, to invest or pure public utility?” “艾瑞克,在来之前,我看过你投资建立的雅虎门户网站,我想知道的是,你建立这家网站,是为了投资还是纯粹的公益事业？” „Naturally invests,” Eric felt that Buffett was obviously crooked the topic belt, today obviously what must discuss is Firefly purchases the TV Network matter, but, Eric is also very clear, Buffett is an inquiry wants the prosperous very intense person, he can see Buffett from Buffett a lot of materials to a situation of enterprise sentiment interest, often will carry on tirelessly issue bombing to the head in this enterprise. However, Eric does not have any impatient meaning. Actually many commercial trade determine in chatting of this frequenting each other, as for the business negotiation of that violent debate, often after the transaction intention achieves, detail negotiations that conducts. “当然是投资,”艾瑞克感觉巴菲特明显已经把话题带歪了,今天明明要讨论的是萤火虫收购电视网的事情,不过,艾瑞克也很清楚,巴菲特是一个提问欲旺非常强烈的人,他从巴菲特的很多资料中都可以看到巴菲特在对一家企业感情趣的情况下,往往会对这家企业的负责人进行不厌其烦地问题轰炸。不过,艾瑞克丝毫没有任何不耐烦的意思。其实很多商业交易都是在这种你来我往的闲聊中确定下来的,至于那种唇枪舌剑的商业谈判,往往是在交易意向达成之后,进行的细节谈判。 „, For example Yahoo web portal, you planned when makes it have the profit, carries on the profit in what way?” “那么,比如雅虎门户网站,你打算让它什么时候产生盈利,以何种方式进行盈利呢？” „In the recent several years I had not considered Yahoo can gain, is at the market cultivation stage,” Eric replied leisurely: „Warren, conceivable, if Yahoo has to surpass the 100 million user, how much money these advertisement chambers of commerce are willing to pay to have the advertisement on the Yahoo website?” “在最近几年内我从来没有考虑过雅虎能够盈利,目前还处于市场培育阶段,”艾瑞克慢条斯理地回答道:“沃伦,可以想象一下,如果雅虎拥有超过一亿的用户,那些广告商会愿意出多少钱在雅虎网站上打广告？” 100 million user! 一亿用户! Buffett narrows the eye slightly, has not treated as fantasy story Eric these words, just like Eric just said that ten years ago, no one knows the personal computing can sell several million annually. If the Internet user will grow really at the scales of every year several million even more than ten million users in the future, then the 100 million user is not the matter of unattainable. 巴菲特微微眯起眼,并没有将艾瑞克这句话当做天方夜谭,正如艾瑞克刚刚说的,在十年前,谁也不知道个人电脑现在每年能够卖出数百万台。如果将来互联网用户真的以每年数百万甚至上千万用户的规模增长,那么一亿用户并不是什么遥不可及的事情。 Because settles on the newspaper media the advertisement profit income, Berkshire Corporation has many newspaper, but largest «The Washington Post» current daily average quantity issued also only then several million, even if these several million sales volumes can bring several billions USD profits for the Post company every year. Therefore, has the Internet media of 100 million user after seeking for the appropriate profit method, the profit that produces must surpass any traditional paper media absolutely. 因为看中报纸媒体的广告利润收入,伯克希尔公司旗下拥有多家报纸,但其中规模最大的《华盛顿邮报》目前的日均发行量也只有几百万份,但即使这几百万份的销量每年就能够为邮报公司带来数亿美元的利润。因此,拥有一亿用户的互联网媒体在寻找到合适的盈利手段之后,所产生的利润绝对要超过任何一家传统纸质媒体。 Although Buffett is not an impulsive person, when he had an intent to move at this time obviously, but, this point intent moves actually unable to make him join in the Internet tide immediately. 虽然巴菲特并不是一个冲动的人,当他此时却已经明显有所意动,只不过,这一点意动却并不能让他立刻投身到互联网浪潮当中。 The fast time the moment, Buffett carried front Cola to drink several, put down the cup gently. Looks at Eric saying: „Eric. In this prospect truly is very attractive. I expected very much saw Yahoo can present the future that such as you said. Then, we chatted the TV Network matter, I heard that you in the past few days and Barry Diller have chatted?” 快速时刻了片刻,巴菲特端起面前的可乐喝了几口,轻轻放下杯子。看着艾瑞克道:“艾瑞克。这中前景确实是非常诱人的。我很期望看到雅虎能够出现如你所说的将来。那么,我们谈谈电视网的事情吧,我听说你前些天与巴里.迪勒聊过了？” „Yes,” Eric shows the regrettable expression, told the facts: „Was a pity very much that he has not planned to join Firefly.” “是的,”艾瑞克露出遗憾的表情,实话实说道:“不过很可惜,他并没有打算加入萤火虫。” The Buffett look is invariable: „That, if I complied to sell to you ABC, how you planned to place Tom. You know that we are the good friends, I need to consider for the benefit of friend.” 巴菲特神色不变:“那么,如果我答应把ab卖给你,你打算如何安置汤姆。你知道,我们是好朋友,我需要为朋友的利益考虑。” „If can purchase ABC smoothly, Firefly will not carry on to the ABC human affairs too adjusts, but in the past few years the ABC achievement also enough proved the managed capacity of Mr. Tom Murphy, therefore, Firefly in the next few years, mainly will increase investment of ABC in content. We know that TV Network similarly like a sales platform, but the television program is ‚commodity that’ it sells. Any customer under the similar price, is willing to visit to have the quality higher commodity store.” “如果能够顺利收购ab的话,萤火虫并不会对ab的人事进行太多调整,而过去几年ab的业绩也足够证明汤姆.墨菲先生的管理能力,所以,萤火虫在未来几年,主要会加大ab在内容方面的投入。我们都知道,电视网同样就像一个销售平台,而电视节目就是它所销售的‘商品’。任何一位顾客在同样的价位下,都会更加愿意光顾拥有质量更高商品商店。” Buffett is very obviously satisfied to the reply of Eric. Also starts to inquire other problems that he cares about, will purchase TV Network related to Eric to the future from now on various possible issues, two people likely will be are chatting for an insignificant matter from beginning to end, and had not discussed the issue about most important purchase price. 巴菲特明显对艾瑞克的回答很满意。又开始询问他关心的其他问题,涉及到艾瑞克对将来收购电视网过后可能出现的各种问题,两个人自始至终都像是在为一件无足轻重的事情闲聊,并且一直没有谈论关于最重要的收购价格的问题。 So crossed for one hour, they drank up big bottle of Cola, Buffett finally have opened the mouth saying: „Eric, overall, I in purchasing various alternative schemes after TV Network am satisfied to you, therefore, we can discuss the issue about purchase price now.” 如此过了一个多小时,两人喝完了一大瓶可乐,巴菲特才最终开口道:“艾瑞克,总体而言,我对你在收购电视网之后的各种方案比较满意,所以,我们现在可以谈谈关于收购价格的问题了。” Buffett as well as Tom Murphy have the ABC TV Network majority of stockholder's rights now, this also means that so long as these two people nod, Firefly Pictures will purchase ABC almost not to meet the too big boost again. 巴菲特以及汤姆.墨菲现在拥有ab电视网大部分的股权,这也就意味着只要这两个人点头,萤火虫影业收购ab几乎不会再遇到太大的助力。 However, Eric is not relaxed at this time, because he has realized other matters, if Buffett planned sold to the Firefly leverage merely ABC, will not chat with is so long, perhaps he will directly only report a trading value. 不过,艾瑞克此时却并没有太轻松,因为他已经意识到了另外一些事情,如果巴菲特仅仅只是打算将ab卖给萤火虫套现的话,根本不会与自己聊这么久,或许他只会非常直接地报一个出售价格。 Really, Buffett also said immediately: „Eric, although I compare to favor this transaction, but I did not plan that leverages the ABC stock completely. I and Tom had chatted this matter, we most only by way sell hand of cash transaction in 30% ABC stocks, another 70% I hope that can take the capital to buy stock Firefly Pictures.” 果然,巴菲特随即就又说道:“艾瑞克,虽然我比较看好这次交易,但我并不打算将ab的股份全部套现。我和汤姆已经聊过这件事,我们最多只会以现金交易的方式出售手中三成ab的股份,另外七成我希望能够作为资本入股萤火虫影业。” Eric had expected attempt of Buffett, he has not hoped adds the splitoff the form to exchange from the bottom of the heart by the cash, but now with purchasing the Disney's time has differed from, Firefly purchases the Disney's time, the Disney's achievement is in the low time, but at that time scale not too big Firefly completely had annexed Disney by a stance of insatiably greedying. The majority of investors do not favor the Firefly purchase case, in addition Disney not like the major stockholder who ABC almost achieves the holding, the stockholder's rights are quite scattered, therefore Firefly Pictures can realize attempt of cash purchase. 艾瑞克本就已经预料到了巴菲特的企图,从心底来说,他并不希望以现金加换股的形式进行交换,只不过现在与收购迪斯尼的时候已经有所不同,萤火虫收购迪斯尼的时候,迪斯尼的业绩正处于低迷时期,而当时规模并不算太大的萤火虫完全是以一种蛇吞象的姿态吞并了迪斯尼。大部分投资人都不是太看好萤火虫的收购案,再加上迪斯尼并没有像ab这样几乎达到控股的大股东,股权相当分散,因此萤火虫影业才能够实现现金收购的企图。 But in the two years the time, the Firefly Pictures achievement was really too dazzling, although this year's financial report has not come out, but the net profit surpassed 1 billion USD almost already not any suspense. 但这两年时间,萤火虫影业的业绩实在是太耀眼了,虽然今年的财务报告并没有出炉,但净利润超过10亿美元几乎已经没有任何悬念。 Hollywood also wants outside the huge Time Warner group besides the scale compared with Firefly at present, can achieve such profit for the year without any Film Studio, therefore world these investment institutions of two shining continuously will focus in Firefly Pictures, frequently is hoping Firefly Pictures will issue such as the news of listing, in this case, Firefly wants to expand toward the TV Network aspect, ABC, NBC and CBS that the strength is not as good as, definitely will not give up this buying stock the Firefly golden opportunity. 好莱坞目前除了规模比萤火虫还要庞大的时代华纳集团外,没有任何一家电影公司能够达到这样的年利润,因此全世界那些两眼放光的投资机构都一直将注意力放在萤火虫影业身上,时刻期盼着萤火虫影业会发布诸如上市的消息,这种情况下,萤火虫想要朝电视网方面扩张,无论是ab,还是实力稍逊的nb和bs,肯定都不会放弃这个入股萤火虫的大好机会。 As for Buffett proposed that buys stock the Firefly plan at the ABC 70% stocks, Eric not anxiously bargaining, but asked: „That, Warren, I want to know that you planned how many Firefly Pictures stocks received exchange for at the ABC 70% stocks?” 至于巴菲特提出以ab七成股份入股萤火虫的方案,艾瑞克并没有急着讨价还价,而是问道:“那么,沃伦,我想知道,你打算以ab七成的股份换取多少萤火虫影业的股份呢？” „49%,” Buffett replied quickly, obviously has considered long time: „Eric, we can calculate with the ABC present stock price, the ABC estimate value probably is 10 billion USD. But to Firefly Pictures, I gives 15 billion USD estimate values . Moreover, I know that you will not give up the Firefly Pictures absolute holding power absolutely, therefore we do not request the holding power, you as before are the biggest shareholder, in the future I will not meddle the management of Firefly similarly, do you think what kind of?” “49%,”巴菲特很快答道,显然已经考虑良久:“艾瑞克,我们可以用ab现在的股价进行计算,ab的估值大概是100亿美元。而对萤火虫影业,我给出150亿美元的估值,而且,我知道你绝对不会放弃萤火虫影业的绝对控股权的,所以我们并不要求控股权,你依旧是最大股东,将来我同样不会插手萤火虫的管理,你觉得怎么样？” What kind, naturally is not much. 怎么样,当然不怎么样。 Although the service of Firefly does not have Time Warner to be so extensive, but the Firefly profit for the year is absolutely equally matched with Time Warner, although many people according to the Hollywood Film Studio normal development path, definitely will think that this profit margin is only temporary, but Eric is confident, Firefly can for a long time maintain the high growth condition absolutely, even if no TV Network, the Firefly future profit only successively will also increase. After all, the movie or TV series of Film Studio product similarly is a commodity, but Eric has all people incomparably to ‚best buy’ manufacture and choice ability. 虽然萤火虫旗下的业务并没有时代华纳那么广泛,但萤火虫的年利润绝对与时代华纳不相上下,虽然很多人按照好莱坞电影公司的正常发展轨迹,肯定会觉得这种利润率只是暂时的,但艾瑞克却非常有信心,萤火虫绝对能够长久地保持高增长状态,即使没有电视网,萤火虫将来的利润也只会节节攀升。毕竟,电影公司出品的电影或者电视剧同样是一种商品,而艾瑞克却拥有所有人都不可比拟的对‘优质商品’的制作和挑选能力。 „Warren, this price was too high, I definitely will not comply,” Eric did not beat around the bush, said directly: „Firefly last year net profit close 1 billion USD, but this year even possibly surpasses Time Warner, but we know that now the market value of Time Warner group approached three 10 billion USD, Firefly actually only then 15 billion USD estimate values, you did not think that this was too low?” “沃伦,这个价格太高了,我肯定是不会答应的,”艾瑞克也不拐弯抹角,直接说道:“萤火虫去年的净利润接近十亿美元,而今年甚至可能超过时代华纳,而我们都知道,现在时代华纳集团的市值已经接近三百亿美元了,萤火虫却只有150亿美元的估值,难道你不觉得这样太低了吗？” „Eric, I acknowledged that the Firefly achievement recent is dazzling, but we are also very clear, the investment return of movie industry is unstable, although everybody approves you talent very much in movie, but this does not mean that you will not be defeated in the future, like Spielberg such, Hollywood entire in the 80's, was almost the Spielberg's world, but just since the 90's, Spielberg welcomed the failure of «Hook». Moreover, we are very similarly clear, a market value of company cannot calculate according to the pure several years profit absolutely, Time Warner has the movie, television, publication as well as the music and other industries, this also means that its anti- risk ability is high, even if presented the serious damage in some year of some service, will not affect the Time Warner overall earning. But the Firefly business scope are on the other hand many on downloading, moreover such as peripheral income these services, the dependency on the movie result are basically big.”( To be continued.) “艾瑞克,我承认萤火虫最近几年的业绩非常耀眼,但我们也都很清楚,电影产业的投资回报是非常不稳定的,虽然大家都很认可你在电影方面的才华,但这并不意味着你将来不会失败,就像斯皮尔伯格那样,好莱坞整个八十年代,几乎都是斯皮尔伯格的天下,但刚刚进入九十年代,斯皮尔伯格就迎来了《霍克船长》的失败。而且,我们同样很清楚,一家公司的市值绝对不能按照单纯几年当中的利润来计算,时代华纳旗下拥有电影、电视、出版以及音乐等所有产业,这也就意味着它的抗风险能力非常高,即使在某一年某项业务出现了重大损失,也不会影响时代华纳的总体营收。但萤火虫相对来说业务范围就下载很多,而且诸如周边收入这些业务,基本上都对电影成绩的依赖非常大。”(未完待续。)
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