The time, the Austria army had withdrawn from the Panamanian area in a hurry quickly, the object who just turns over to is not a Colombian government, but is the Panamanian local government. 时间匆匆而过,奥军很快就撤离了巴拿马地区,只不过移交的对象不是哥伦比亚政府,而是巴拿马地方政府。 Exactly said that should be the Panamanian independent body, the original Panamanian local government has changed players, what now director is the independent body. 确切的说应该是巴拿马独立组织,原来的巴拿马地方政府早就换人了,现在主政的是独立组织。 The government forces arrived on the halfway stopping up by the place militiaman, did not put them to enter a country. 哥伦比亚政府军走到半路上被地方民兵给堵住了,不放他们入境。 both sides are confronting, the Panamanian independent body has not issued the Declaration of Independence, refusing the government forces to enter a country the reason that is: The discipline is not good. 双方正在对峙,巴拿马独立组织还没有发表独立宣言,拒绝政府军入境的理由是:军纪不好。 Although Colombia is not the US style federal system, the right of local government is also big, refusing the government forces to enter a country also to have the precedent. 哥伦比亚虽然不是美国式联邦制,地方政府的权利同样不小,拒绝政府军入境又不是没有先例。 clear(ly) knows that the Panamanian area must make independently, before independent start, President Rafael Nunez also can only adopt the political means. 明知道巴拿马地区要闹独立,在独立开始前,拉斐尔・努涅斯总统也只能采取政治手段。 The suppression, does not exist! Now who first fires the first spear/gun, who must undertake to provoke the responsibility of civil war. 镇压,不存在的！现在谁先开第一枪,谁就要承担挑起内战的责任。 This is the Vienna government most wants to see, the Austria army just evacuated erupt the civil war, how to see feels irritable. 这是维也纳政府最想看到,奥军刚刚撤离就爆发内战,怎么看都觉得别扭。 The time of delaying is longer, the independent body prepares is fuller. The control domain also requires the time, the independent body establishes for several months the time, can build to be good the rack, strokes the clear internal affairs radically without enough time. 况且拖的时间越长,独立组织准备的就越充分。掌控地盘也是需要时间的,独立组织才建立短短几个月时间,能够把架子搭起来就不错了,根本来不及捋清内务。 ...... …… Foreign minister Wessenberg: „ Your majesty, the Colombian government urged again we pay the compensatory payment. News that according to the embassy transmits, they had been encircled three days by the soldiers killed in action family member. 外交大臣韦森贝格:“陛下,哥伦比亚政府再次催促我们支付补偿金。根据使馆传来的消息,他们已经被阵亡士兵家属围了三天。 Even some people impact the consular district, demanded the pension. Now goes out continually purchases the living materials to become the difficulty, can only make the Colombian government deliver. ” 甚至有人冲击使馆区,索要抚恤金。现在连出门采买生活物资都成了困难,只能让哥伦比亚政府送进去。” Heard this news, the Franz corners of the mouth showed a faint smile. Was not protested, this year which big powers do not experience several times, many are not serious. 听到了这个消息,弗朗茨嘴角微微一笑。不就是被人抗议嘛,这年头哪个列强不经历几次,遇到的多也就不当一回事了。 „ Told the Colombian government, making them provide the soldiers killed in action family member identification, so long as verified the status, we provided the pension immediately. “告诉哥伦比亚政府,让他们提供阵亡士兵家属身份证明,只要核实了身份,我们立即发放抚恤金。 The property loses strongly in the Panamanian area, what needs to compensate is only the local residents, to avoid the fund diverted for any other purpose, we will issue the local government the fund directly. ” 财物损失都集中在巴拿马地区,需要补偿的只是当地民众,为了避免款项被挪作他用,我们会直接把资金发给地方政府。” Does „to local government”, is used to fight the civil war? “给地方政府”干什么,用来打内战么？ If there are chooses, it is estimated that the Colombian government rather does not have this compensatory payment. This is not only only the hot issue, clearly is awfully. 如果有得选择,估计哥伦比亚政府宁愿没有这笔补偿金。这已经不仅仅只是烫手的问题,分明是要命。 The retaliation, this is the true retaliation. Compared with this, the front conflict „misunderstanding”, can only calculate the pediatrics. 报复,这才是真正的报复。和这相比,前面的冲突“误会”,都只能算小儿科。 Foreign minister Wessenberg reminded: „ Your majesty, Colombian government to offer the good intentions to us, had loosened Peruvian border's trade control. 外交大臣韦森贝格提醒道:“陛下,哥伦比亚政府为了向我们释放善意,已经放松了秘鲁边界的贸易管制。 Now we do that perhaps they will block the boundary line again, the smuggling cannot conduct, Peru and Bolivia want...... ” 现在我们这么做,恐怕他们又会再次封锁边界线,走私进行不下去,秘鲁和玻利维亚就要……” Franz beckons with the hand: „ This is only the small issue, the commodity that but Peru the French little brother, purchases now also many are the French goods, even were blocked, what matters also closes our? 弗朗茨摆了摆手:“这只是小问题,秘鲁可是法国人小弟,现在采购的物资也多是法国货,即便是被封锁了,又关我们什么事？ As for Bolivia, haven't we made a connection with the trade line of Argentina? Although the smuggling past commodity were not many, if they saved to use, it is estimated that also reluctantly enough. ” 至于玻利维亚,我们不是已经打通了阿根廷的贸易线么？走私过去的物资虽然不多,如果他们省着点儿用,估计也勉强够了。” Panama „misunderstanding”, struck not only only had Colombia, similarly made Argentina of neighbor also to be frightened heavily with the Austria advantage, even enclasped the Chilean government of English thigh to be fearful and apprehensive. 刚刚过去的巴拿马“误会”,敲打的不仅仅只有哥伦比亚,同样和奥地利做邻居的阿根廷也被吓得不轻,甚至连抱紧了英国人大腿的智利政府都胆战心惊。 Nowadays the South American countries, no one is better than whom many, is the weak chicken, South America three has not emerged. 这年头南美各国,谁也不比谁好多少,一个个都是弱鸡,南美三强都没有脱颖而出。 Is only one time „misunderstanding”, the military that Colombia loses, caught up with „guano war” more than one year the complete battle losses, being beyond control everyone is unhurried. 仅仅只是一次“误会”,哥伦比亚损失的兵力,就赶上了“鸟粪战争”一年多时间的全部战损,由不得大家不慌。 Experiences strength that Austria benefitted, as Argentina of neighbor, naturally must adjust the foreign policy. Lets loose the trade blockade is not good directly, that will offend the English. 见识到了奥地利的实力,作为邻居的阿根廷,自然要调整外交政策了。直接放开贸易封锁不行,那会得罪英国人。 However, this cannot baffle the astute Argentine government bureaucrat. On is unable outwardly the trade, but can also smuggle secretly. 不过,这难不倒精明的阿根廷政府官僚。明面上无法进行贸易,还可以暗地里走私。 This is answers multiple purpose, not only the Austria advantage satisfied, the English did not have the words saying that the bureaucrats can also seize the chance to send one. 这是一举多得,不仅奥地利满意了,就连英国人也没话说,官僚们还可以趁机发上一笔。 ...... …… Austria benefits in the action French has not been idling, the present French empire may want flamboyant many compared with the original space and time. The awe-inspiring prowess had not been punctured, there is a French Guiana, shocking several South American countries is not simple. 奥地利在行动法国人也没闲着,现在的法兰西帝国可比原时空要牛逼的多。虎威没有被戳破,又有法属圭亚那在,震慑几个南美国家还不简单。 The Vienna government can convince the Argentine government to relax the blockade, the French can make the Brazilian government turn a blind eye similarly. 维也纳政府能够说服阿根廷政府放松封锁,法国人同样可以让巴西政府睁一只眼,闭一只眼。 In some sense, the English fiddles with „blockade line”, has massive loopholes from the beginning. 某种意义上来说,英国人捣鼓出来的“封锁线”,从一开始就存在着大量漏洞。 So-called „blockade”, blocked the ordinary merchant merely. The true function, reduced the commodity inflow probably, raised Peru and Bolivia to purchase the cost of commodity. 所谓“封锁”,仅仅只是封锁住了普通商人。真正作用,大概是减少了物资流入,抬高了秘玻两国购买物资的成本。 Competent, has the background merchant group, always does not care about what blockade line. So long as the benefit enough, did not have the blockade line that the capitalist cannot span. 有实力、有背景的商团,从来都不在乎什么封锁线。只要利益够了,就没有资本家跨越不了的封锁线。 The coastline that even if the royal navy checks personally, has the merchant ship to overcome an obstacle. So long as the backstage is big enough, did not fear that was grasped. 即便是皇家海军亲自把关的海岸线,同样有商船闯关。只要后台够大,就不怕被抓。 The matter that the English cannot achieve, other country did not need to count on. Besides domestic powerful official, one pile of bold big powers background merchant groups. 英国人都做不到的事情,别的国家就更不用指望了。除了国内的权贵外,还有一堆胆大包天的列强背景商团。 Was held, most also urged to return. Holding responsible is exists, what to do otherwise causes the diplomacy to conflict? 被抓住了,最多也就劝返。追究责任是存在的,要不然引起外交冲突怎么办？ Achieves the strict blockade truly the country, probably also on Chile. Related to the own interests, was not strict is not good. 真正做到严格封锁的国家,大概也就智利了。涉及到了切身利益,不严格都不行。 ...... …… Perhaps is the South American area is extremely bountiful, is the South American countries is extremely perhaps small and weak. In brief, the South American area successfully aroused the interest of Napoleon IV. 或许是南美地区太过富饶,又或许是南美各国太过弱小。总之,南美地区成功引起了拿破仑四世的兴趣。 Saw that the Austria advantage has the idea of Panamanian area, Napoleon IV also wants to expand the law to be the South American colony. 看到奥地利打巴拿马地区的主意,拿破仑四世也想扩充一下法属南美殖民地。 France had many years not to have the expansion, this to wanting to exceed person of father's generation Napoleon IV, was really bad. 法兰西有好些年没有对外扩张了,这对想要超越父辈拿破仑四世来说,实在是太糟糕了。 To the great plan of Emperor, senior government officials not only excited, and helpless, who wants to perform good deeds, to keep the history, the issue is the condition does not permit! 对皇帝的伟大计划,法国政府高层既兴奋、又无奈,谁都想建功立业、名留青史,问题是条件不允许啊！ Foreign minister Dumbledores persuaded: „ Your majesty, present international situation not suitable expansion. The Prussia war had arrived at the critical moment, we cannot disperse the strength. 外交大臣邓布利多劝说道:“陛下,现在的国际局势不适合对外扩张。普俄战争已经到了关键时刻,我们不能够分散实力。 According to the current situation, Prussia war, once decides the victory and defeat, continental Europe will conduct to shuffle one time, this is we in the European expansion influence best opportunity. 根据目前的情况来看,普俄战争一旦分出胜负,欧洲大陆又会进行一次洗牌,这是我们在欧洲扩张影响力的最佳机会。 Europe will soon have the change in situation, Panamanian area that the Vienna government will not give up, is only the international opinion is also not enough to make them yield merely. ” 要不是欧洲即将发生变局,维也纳政府也不会放弃到手的巴拿马地区,仅仅只是国际舆论还不足以令他们让步。” Without problem, this year most popular is „European center theory”. According to this principle, law Austria both mainland countries must focus on dealing with the post-war change in situation. 没毛病,这年头最流行的就是“欧洲中心论”。按照这个原则,法奥两个大陆国家都必须要集中精力应对战后变局。 Napoleon IV shakes the head: „ Count, this and my plan is not contradictory. The colonizing expansion is the long-term national policy, is not to start immediately. 拿破仑四世摇了摇头:“伯爵阁下,这和我的计划并不矛盾。殖民扩张是长期性国策,又不是马上就要发动。 Now what we need to do is only the preparation work, after continental Europe settles down, then takes action is not late. 现在我们需要做的只是前期准备工作,等欧洲大陆尘埃落定后,再采取行动也不晚。 This world has carved up, the most loathful English, attained the richest most and populous area ; That help/gang Southern Europe barbarian, took away a bulk cake. 这个世界已经瓜分完了,最令人讨厌的英国人,拿到了最富庶的地区;就连那帮南欧蛮子,也拿走了一大块蛋糕。 Leaves France on remaining remnant thick soup cold roast/broil, in name we are the world's third colonial empire, in fact everyone is very clear, that is big pile of sand. 留给法兰西的就剩下残羹冷炙了,名义上我们是世界第三殖民帝国,实际上大家都很清楚,那就是一大堆沙子。 Slow step by step slow, left the leeway that we choose is not many by the present. Except that East Asia is South America, relatively speaking the South American area small country stands in great numbers, is easier to go well. ” 一步慢步步慢,到了现在留给我们选择的余地已经不多了。除了东亚就是南美,相对而言南美地区小国林立,更加容易得手。” The expansion and expansion, expand again, this is not Napoleon IV individual desire, this is the French domestic industry and commerce urgent demand. 扩张、扩张、再扩张,这不是拿破仑四世个人的欲望,这是法兰西国内工商业迫切的需求。 This is the price that the industrial power must undertake, without the attack of Franco-Prussian War, annexed the Italian area, the French industry capacity history increased same time were too many. 这是工业强国必须要承担的代价,没有普法战争的打击,又吞并了意大利地区,法国工业产能较历史同期增加了太多。 The industrial capacity increases, brought not necessarily is the good deed, with has to the raw material and urgent demand of that outlet for goods it follows. 工业产能增加,带来的不一定都是好事,与之伴随的还有对原材料、商品销售市场的迫切需求。 By the influences of raw material massive import, the French industry and commerce product cost was been high, internationally the competitiveness is limited. 受原材料大量进口的影响,法国工商业制品成本偏高,在国际上竞争力有限。 Must solve this problem, the best way naturally was the expansion. Without raw material- snatches ; Without commodity market- snatches. In brief, nothing is „snatching” character is unsolvable. 要解决这个问题,最佳的办法自然是扩张了。没有原材料-抢;没有商品市场-抢。总之,没有什么是“抢”字不能解决的。 Listened to this explanation, Dumbledores starts to speak but hesitates. To say that the South American countries strength is not weak, how words to the mouth, he said. 听了这个解释,邓布利多欲言又止。本想说南美各国实力不弱,怎么奈话到了嘴边,他又说不出口。 The strong and weak needs to contrast, compared with France, the South American countries was really small and weak. Even if these countries put together completely, possibly is not the opponent in France. 强弱都是需要对比的,和法兰西相比,南美各国实在是太弱小了。即便是这些国家全部加在一起,也不可能是法兰西的对手。 Taking a firm stand of Emperor, domestic colonizing expands Zhang School the potential is also big, seeing the situation is not right, for does not form the resolution immediately, similarly anti-war First Lord of the Treasury Roy quickly shifts the topic: 皇帝的立场坚定,国内的殖民扩张派又势大,见情况不对,为了不立即形成决议,同样反战的财政大臣罗伊急忙转移话题: „ The South American issue has not worried temporarily, at present what is most important is the Prussia war. All sorts of signs showed, the Austria advantage has to annex the plan of German federation empire. “南美问题暂时还不着急,眼下最重要的还是普俄战争。种种迹象表明,奥地利有吞并德意志联邦帝国的计划。 The English are unreliable, if federation defeats, the Russia person is only the hard victory, then there is a strength to stop only then we who the Austria virtue merged. 英国人是靠不住的,如果普波联邦战败,俄国人又只是惨胜,那么有实力阻拦奥德合并的就只有我们了。 If the Vienna government acts willfully, we must prevent, then the war will be avoidless. 如果维也纳政府一意孤行,我们又必须要阻止,那么战争将无法避免。 Frigid everyone of Prussia war saw, if we and Austria advantage makes war, perhaps compares this to be frigid. 普俄战争的惨烈大家都看到了,如果我们和奥地利开战,恐怕比这还要惨烈。 In order to guarantee victory, we must be ready ahead of time. This needs so much funds, our finances are unable to undertake. ” 为了确保胜利,我们必须要提前做好准备。这需要大量的资金,我们的财政无法承担。” This does not flicker purely, Austria benefits has had to annex the plan of German federation, and also changes with the change of time. 这不纯粹是忽悠,奥地利一直都有兼并德意志联邦的计划,并且还随着时间的变化而变化。 Once the international situation changes, perhaps will plan to become the reality. The Prussia war exactly is an opportunity. 一旦国际局势发生变化,没准计划就会变成现实。普俄战争恰好就是一次机会。 If federation wins, is great, even loses again seriously, the Berlin government still can only choose and Austria advantage dies to knock. This is the principled issue, does not have slightly the possibility of compromise. 如果普波联邦获胜,那么没得说,即便是损失再惨重,柏林政府也只能选择和奥地利死磕。这是原则性问题,不存在丝毫妥协的可能。 If the Tsar government wins, and loses seriously, the situation was different. 要是沙皇政府获胜,并且损失惨重,情况就不一样了。 The Russia person no doubt does not want to notice that the Austria advantage annexes the German federation, but Tsar government not to prevent Austria will benefit, will lose everything to/clashes upward. 俄国人固然不想看到奥地利吞并德意志联邦,可沙皇政府也不会为了阻止奥地利,就砸锅卖铁往上冲。 This is the benefit decision, even the Austria advantage unifies Central Europe, Russian Empire or Russian Empire, most still lose the road that expands to Europe, the threat is not fatal. 这是利益决定的,即便是奥地利统一中欧,俄罗斯帝国还是俄罗斯帝国,最多也就丧失向欧洲扩张的路,威胁并不致命。 So many loans that the Austria advantage lets out do not give for nothing, can affect the Tsar government policy decision at crucial moments. 奥地利放出去的那么多贷款也不是白给的,还是能够在关键时刻影响沙皇政府决策的。 If promises some benefits, the possibility of two countries compromise is big. 如果许诺一些利益,两国妥协的可能性非常大。 Under this situation, the Vienna government is capable of convincing most European country neutralities, the final result is law Austria selects mostly only, most increases a far-fetched British ally. 在这种背景下,维也纳政府有能力说服大部分欧洲国家中立,最后的结局多半是法奥单挑,最多增加一个不靠谱的英国盟友。 Napoleon IV succeeds to the throne will basically be continuing father's economic policy from now on, although the domestic rate of economic development has slowed down, generally speaking is very good. 拿破仑四世继位过后基本上在延续父亲的经济政策,国内的经济发展速度虽然有所放缓,总体上来说还是很不错的。 The First Lord of the Treasury said that „does not have money”, but also really gives to have a scare him. Immediately felt relaxed, the debt of Paris government has been very heavy, this is the indisputable fact. 财政大臣说“没钱”,还真把他给吓了一跳。随即又释然了,巴黎政府的债务一直都很重,这是不争的事实。 The entire world owes money John Bull who most is not coaxes flamboyant, is not revival soon Austria benefits, is not battling Prussia both countries, but dominates the France of Western Europe. 全世界欠钱最多不是牛逼哄哄的约翰牛,也不是复兴不久的奥地利,更不是正在交战的普俄两国,而是雄霸西欧的法兰西。 Without the means that transforms Paris, constructs the infrastructure, revives the armament, foreign colonizing expands, annexes the Italian area, these must spend. 没办法,改造巴黎,兴建基础设施,复兴军备,对外殖民扩张,吞并意大利地区,这些都是要花钱的。 The Austria good dynasty stays behind is an indebted mess. Although Napoleon III revived the French economy, actually cannot change the government indebted aspect, the debt actually increases are more. 奥尔良王朝留下的就是一个债台高筑的烂摊子。拿破仑三世虽然复兴了法国经济,却没有能够改变政府债台高筑的局面,债务反而增加的更多。 Did not say that this economic type is not good, in fact the government investments of later generation many country stimulate the economy, is the similar idea. 不是说这种经济模式不好,实际上后世很多国家的政府投资刺激经济,都是同样的理念。 But such a, the debt of government must increase unceasingly. In credit standard age, but can also by issuing additionally the currency makes up for this hole, the gold standard age can only resist hardly. 只不过这么一来,政府的债务就要不断攀升了。在信用本位年代,还可以靠增发货币来弥补这个窟窿,金本位年代就只能硬抗。 Under this economic type, while French economy great development, the debt of government is also increasing day by day. 这种经济模式下,在法国经济大发展的同时,政府的债务也在与日俱增。 The Paris government debt total amount had broken through 28 billion francs, this number exceeded the debt sum total of Prussia two countries, may be called the world's largest debtor nation. 巴黎政府债务总额已经突破了280亿法郎,这个数字超过了普俄两国的债务总和,堪称全世界最大的债务国。 Naturally, owing the debt many were not equal to that the Paris government was really poor. The government investment is not nonprofit, many investments turned into the asset, can have the income, but these assets are unable in a short time the realization. 当然,欠下债务多不等于巴黎政府就真的穷了。政府投资也不全是公益性的,还有不少投资变成了资产,能够产生收益,只不过这些资产短时间内无法变现。 After pondering the moment time, Napoleon IV shakes the head: „ The situation in Europe is not stern, Austria altruistic has not started to prepare, this means that the Vienna government also has not been ready. 沉思了片刻功夫后,拿破仑四世摇了摇头:“欧洲的局势还没有那么严峻,奥地利人都没有开始备战,这意味着维也纳政府同样没有做好准备。 Your guesses, in fact also likely happen. In some too many assumptions, must end the war by the Russia person hard victory, has the following matter. 你们的猜测,实际上也只是可能发生。这里面有太多的假设,必须要以俄国人惨胜结束战争,才有后面的事情。 In fact, the Prussia war conducts now, no one is able to prepare to grasp this. 事实上,普俄战争进行到现在,谁也无法准备把握住这个度。 The odds of success of Russia person is truly bigger, but not necessarily is the hard victory. Even if federation lost, not necessarily loses the complete qualification. 俄国人的胜算确实更大,但不一定是惨胜。普波联邦即便是输了,也不一定输掉全部的本钱。 The English are truly unreliable, haven't we counted on them? 英国人确实靠不住,我们不也没有指望过他们么？ Why we must make war with the Austria advantage, carving up the German federation similarly is also a good choice. 况且,我们为什么一定要和奥地利开战,瓜分德意志联邦同样也是一个不错选择。 Do not tell me, does Austria altruistic want to come an all-out war with us? If really hit, cheap can only be an English. ” 不要告诉我,奥地利人就想要和我们来一次全面战争？真要是打起来了,便宜的只会是英国人。” The confrontation among three forces is the stablest structure, the main reason is: Everyone is worried about „when the snipe and clam grapple , the fisherman profits”. 三足鼎立是最稳定的构架,最主要的原因就是:大家担心“鹬蚌相争,渔翁得利”。 Compares hangs the overseas English this solitary one, regardless of Austria benefits, France, own strategic location is much worse. 相比孤悬海外的英国人来说,无论奥地利、还是法兰西,自身的战略位置都要糟糕得多。