The guidance of government, cannot resist the capital the enthusiasm, the benefit is always easy to make one lose, neglected the risk. 政府的引导,还是没有能够抵挡资本的热情,利益总是容易令人迷失,忽视了风险。 Cannot attain the government support, that thinks the means cost reduction, for example: Places the suburb the factory, or is in the good communications small town, the land cost saved all of a sudden most probably. 拿不到政府扶持,那就想办法降低成本,比如说:将工厂放在郊区、或者是交通便利的小镇上,土地成本一下子省了大半。 Does not have the tax preference also to might as well, Prussia is buying, now the profit of factory is very high, does not miss that several points. 没有税收优惠也无妨,普俄都在买买买,现在工厂的利润都很丰厚,也不差那几个点。 „Good good advice to be difficult to urge this/should devil, the big mercy does not cross the alienating oneself person.” “好良言难劝该死鬼,大慈悲不渡自绝人。” Looks the capital of liking a moth to the flame floods into unceasingly, Franz can only choose the less seen the better. 看着飞蛾扑火的资本不断涌入,弗朗茨只能选择眼不见为净。 Market crazy besides greedy, serious social problem. The capitalist country economy presents the overcapacity again, particularly British Austria both countries are most serious. 市场的疯狂除了贪婪外,还有更加严重的社会问题。资本主义世界经济再一次出现产能过剩,尤其是英奥两国最为严重。 The crisis has not broken out, has the relations with the international situation. From 1873 ~ 1878 years, erupted into the second Near East war, carve up the colonial war that the African continent starts with the UK , France Austria three countries. 危机没有爆发出来,和国际局势有关系。从1873年年,先后爆发了第二次近东战争,和英法奥三国瓜分非洲大陆发起的殖民战争。 The war consumed huge wealth and commodities, the boom of market covered the overcapacity crisis. If the Prussia war does not break out, will lead to the new economic crisis at the latest next year. 战争消耗了大量的财富、物资,市场的繁荣掩盖了产能过剩危机。如果普俄战争不爆发,最迟明年就会爆发新的经济危机。 Underwent so many years accumulations, too much is not only only the capacity, the capital was also surplus. 经过了这么多年的积累,过剩已经不仅仅只是产能,就连资本也过剩了。 The money of spending is money, lies down money in bank is only one pile of numbers. In overwhelming majority industries under saturated and surplus background, capital demand new investment channel. 正所谓花出去的钱才是钱,躺在银行里的钱只是一堆数字。在绝大部分行业都已经饱和、过剩的背景下,资本需要新的投资渠道。 According to doing the convention, when this time, the stock market got up on this/should wind and cloud. So much funds flock to the stock market, before the manufacture come to naught the prosperity, then the bubble was punctured, the surplus capital was evaporated with the bubble. 按照作死的惯例,每到这个时候,股市就该风云起了。大量的资金涌入股市,制造一场空前的繁荣,然后泡沫被戳破,过剩的资本随着泡沫被蒸发掉。 Dead fellow daoist not dead this poor Daoist, the contradiction between Prussia was used on. The Austria advantage supports the Tsar government, UK , France supports the Berlin government, besides political need, there is an function of capital. 死道友不死贫道,普俄之间的矛盾就被利用上了。奥地利支持沙皇政府,英法支持柏林政府,除了政治需要外,也有资本的作用。 money borrows went out, the issue of overcapitalization naturally does not exist. Plenty of orders that the war brings, promoted the economic development. 钱借出去了,资本过剩的问题自然就不存在了。战争带来的大量订单,又促进了经济发展。 The most important thing is mainly the industrial crises of British Austria two industrialized nations, has spread the entire continental Europe through the stimulation of war, no one must want to cultivate one's own moral worth. 最重要的是原本主要是英奥两个工业大国的工业危机,通过战争的刺激已经蔓延到了整个欧洲大陆,谁也不要想独善其身。 Drags everyone together into the water, embarks from the national level, this does not harm others but not benefit oneself. Exactly said, this is called the attack potential competitor. 拖大家一起下水,从国家层面上出发,这可不是损人不利己。确切的说,这叫做打击潜在竞争对手。 The war on war and military in economy is different, loss most serious country that not necessarily fights, bigger possibly is the eldest child and second child gambles, finally the third child, the fourth child and fifth child...... killing. 经济上的战争和军事上的战争不一样,损失最惨重的不一定交手的国家,更大的可能是老大和老二博弈,最后把老三、老四、老五……给打死了。 Under the free trade system, the global market was still very limited, is impossible to satisfy everyone's appetite, can only follow the jungle principle to compete. 自由贸易体系下,全球市场仍然很有限,不可能满足所有人的胃口,只能遵循丛林法则进行争夺。 The industry of British Austria two countries occupies the entire world industry total quantity respectively 29.8 and 36.5, the two countries import and export total quantity occupies the entire world total exports respectively 49.6 and 24.7. 英奥两国的工业分别占据全世界工业总量的29.8、36.5,两国进出口总量分别占据全世界出口总量的49.6、24.7。 Because of the relations of benefit, having the conflict is inevitable. The capital is to eat the person, in the world of this law of the jungle, definitely is a weak one who first drops down. 因为利益的关系,发生冲突已经不可避免。资本是要吃人的,在这个弱肉强食的世界,最先倒下的肯定是弱者。 Now wish of speculators noisy crowd makes the war wealth, did not say that they have not realized the risk completely, is only the too close to the problem, many people thinks that can run quickly compared with others. 现在投机者们一窝蜂的想要发战争财,不是说他们完全没有意识到风险,只是当局者迷,很多人都自认为能够比别人跑得快。 So long as before the crisis breaks out, found a taking over a business hero, can get the large profit. 只要在危机爆发前,找到一个接盘侠,就可以获得丰厚的利润。 Vienna palace 维也纳宫 Palace Mila Beslon: „ Your majesty, so far, we had sold 76 factories one after another, remaining also entered in the negotiations, it is expected to sell in the next two months completely. 宫相米拉贝隆:“陛下,截止到目前为止,我们已经陆续出售了76家工厂,剩下的也进入了谈判中,预计在未来两个月内会全部售出。 Had stock bond, now is also underselling slowly, for does not cause the market volatility, currently sells approximately 1/10. 持有的股票债券,现在也在缓慢抛售,为了不引起市场动荡,目前只是出售了约十分之一。 Affected by the market fiery, the income that this reduction asset yields, wants the rich several points compared with the estimate. Now has harvested 130 million aegises, after selling completely, approximately can obtain 440 million aegises. 受市场火热影响,这次减持资产获得的收益,比预想中还要丰厚几分。现在已经收获了1.3亿神盾,全部售出后大约可以获得4.4亿神盾。 However our actions, brought to the attention of person with high aspirations. The follow-up action, will probably encounter certain problem. ” 不过我们的行动,还是引起了有心人的注意。后续行动,可能会遇到一定的麻烦。” Franz nods, was discovered is inevitable. When the market is most fiery dumps the asset, such alternative approach, did not pay attention to have the issue. 弗朗茨点了点头,被发现是必然的。在市场最火热的时候抛售资产,这么另类的做法,不被注意才有问题。 But without the means that these year of imperial family assets makes a snowman expands, does not retreat earlier, behind could not draw back. 可是没办法,这些年皇室资产滚雪球般的壮大,不早点儿撤退,后面就退不回来了。 The day before that type in the crisis broke out, matter that looked for a high price taking over a business hero, Franz can only say that was lives in the dream. 那种在危机爆发前一天,找一个高价接盘侠的事情,弗朗茨只能说那是活在梦里。 Where in the world has so many fools? If nothing else, so long as Prussia war as soon as finished, the value big discounts of these factories. 世界上哪里有这么多傻子？别的不说,只要普俄战争一结束,这些工厂的价值就会大大折扣。 Perhaps in time of war, the acquired large profit, can make up for the loss that the enterprise value drops incurs, but wants to ask the buyer is not easy when the time comes again. 或许在战争时期,获得的丰厚利润,能够弥补企业价值下降带来的损失,可到时候再想找买家就不容易了。 Without the taking over a business hero, that can only resist hardly, by the abundant capital strength, passed competes with the most brutal years. 万一没有接盘侠,那就只能硬抗下去,凭借雄厚的资金实力,度过竞争最残酷的岁月。 Seemingly there is no, in any case these technique content low industries, finally remaining certainly is financially solid, not able to support the outdoor shop of imperial family to be big. Does not stockpile a ammunition ahead of time, Franz lacks self-confidence at heart. 看似没有什么,反正这些技术含量低的产业,最后剩下的一定是财力雄厚的,可架不住皇室的摊子大。不提前储备点儿弹药,弗朗茨心里没底。 After the decision and English start the dumping war together, Franz decides to give up the food processing industry, the textile industry and primary fabrication industry comprehensively. 在决定和英国人一起掀起倾销大战后,弗朗茨就决定全面放弃食品加工业、纺织业、初级加工制造业。 Once the crisis breaks out, these technique content low industries, the received impact absolutely is biggest, Franz does not prepare dead to knock in this above. 一旦危机爆发,这些技术含量低的产业,受到的冲击绝对是最大的,弗朗茨可不准备在这上面死磕。 Sells 274 factories one time, the coverage scope surpasses 14 countries, such great writer, can apply for world Gillis to record. 一次性出售274家工厂,覆盖范围超过14个国家,这样的大手笔,都可以申请世界吉利斯记录了。 The factory does not want, the stock and bond of investment not to mention, sell early early with ease. Money must fall the bag is secure, the nominal market value is most far-fetched. 工厂都不要了,投资的股票、债券更不用说,早卖早轻松。钱还是要落袋为安,名义上的市值是最不靠谱的。 After thinking, Franz: „ Does good, the present market was too crazy, we do not need to be buried along with the dead with them. 想了想后,弗朗茨:“干的不错,现在的市场太疯狂了,我们没有必要和他们陪葬。 Dumps the asset besides these, starting from May of next year, but must reduce several listed company stocks of our long-line investment gradually. 除了这些抛售资产之外,从明年五月份开始,还要逐步减持我们长线投资的几家上市公司股份。 Including enterprise that we control stock, so long as the stock price exceeds the normal market value, must reduce part, after waits for the stock disaster to erupt, conducts the buy-back again. 包括我们控股的企业,只要股价超过正常市值的,都要减持一部分,等股灾爆发过后,再进行回购。 Especially the foreign investment, must process as soon as possible. For example: The investment of Panama Canal, seizes the chance to find the person to take over a business! 尤其是海外投资,更要尽快处理掉。比如说:巴拿马运河的投资,趁机找人接盘吧！ This crisis far may exceed the past, the time will also be very long. The investment over the next two years, is primarily the short line, to keep. ” 这次危机可能会远超以往,持续的时间也会很长。未来两年的投资,都以短线、保守为主。” The man-made disaster is more fearful than the market discipline, once the economic war breaks out, was not one day two days can finish. 人祸远比市场规律可怕,经济战争一旦爆发,就不是一天两天能够结束的。 Does not eliminate large quantities of backwardness capacities, sets aside enough market, the capital will not give up. 不淘汰大批落后产能,腾出足够的市场来,资本是不会罢手的。 At this critical moment, outdoor shop shop is bigger, the final loss is bigger. 在这种关键时刻,摊子铺的越大,最后的损失就越大。 The later generation financial group shifted to the financial industry mostly, rarely has to knock the manufacturing industry, this is also the important factor. 后世财团大都转向了金融业,很少有死磕制造业的,这也是重要因素。 The reality supported the importance of confidence again, Franz had self-knowledge, oneself were not always the commercial talent. 现实再次佐证了信心的重要性,弗朗茨有自知之明,自己从来都不是什么商业天才。 If did not have the first-hand information, grasped the investment gusty area, avoided the crisis promptly, the imperial family industry has compensated upside down. 如果不是掌握了第一手信息,把握住了投资风口,及时避开了危机,皇室产业早就赔得底朝天了。 Naturally, if really does not have so many information, the outdoor shop not shop of imperial family industry is so big. What makes money, invests anything, is in itself unscientific. 当然,真要是没有这么多信息,皇室产业的摊子也不会铺的这么大。什么赚钱,就投资什么,本身就是不科学的。 Even the jumbo financial group, is impossible to give dual attention to all industries. Samsung of later generation is the example, the outdoor shop spreads too greatly, pulled the fruit, otherwise the strength of rescue whole nation, passed away. 即便是巨无霸财团,也不可能兼顾所有的行业。后世的“三星”就是例子,摊子铺得太大,扯到了蛋蛋,要不然举国之力抢救,就一命呜呼了。 For a better development, discarding some burdens is also inevitable. Now starts, in the future, the imperial family financial group will also discard more businesses. 为了更好的发展,丢掉一些包袱也是必然的。现在只是开始,在未来的岁月里,皇室财团还会舍弃更多的业务。 Now does not discard, is mainly because the profit is high. The traditional domain and emerging domain are relative, today or the high tech of bright prospect, will probably turn into the traditional domain tomorrow. 现在不舍弃,主要是因为利润丰厚。传统领域和新兴领域本身就是相对,今天还是前景光明的高科技,明天就可能变成传统领域。 Asking of Mila Beslon surprise: „Your majesty, gives up the stock of Panama Canal now, doesn't wait for final harvesting?” 米拉贝隆诧异的问:“陛下,现在就放弃巴拿马运河的股份,不等最后的收割么？” Franz shakes the head: „ Did not need. Judging from the present situation, perhaps cannot wait for the final harvesting time. 弗朗茨摇了摇头:“没必要了。从目前的情况来看,恐怕等不到最后的收割时刻。 Once the economic crisis breaks out, the Panama Canal could not conduct. We do not suit to remind the French, only if they draw in a net on own initiative ahead of time. 一旦经济危机爆发,巴拿马运河就进行不下去了。我们不适合去提醒法国人,除非他们主动提前收网。 The stocks in our hand are limited, even ahead of time harvests, the profit is still limited. Now draws back, happen to evades the following disturbance. 我们手中的股份有限,就算是提前收割,获利也非常有限。现在就退出来,正好避过后面的风波。 If makes the investors know the canal that they anticipate, did not have suddenly all of a sudden, has not known that will have anything. ” 要是让股民们知道他们期待的运河,突然一下子没了,还不知道会发生什么。” The imperial family wants the reputation, is not the money can gain. Ahead of time withdraws is also a good deed, avoid behind must spend the resources damage control. 皇室是要名声的,不是什么钱都能赚。提前退出也是一件好事,省得后面还要花费资源善后。 Others do not know, Franz is firmly clear, possibility that in the next 30 years, the Panama Canal will not have been open. 别人不知道,弗朗茨确清楚,未来30年内,巴拿马运河都没有通航的可能。 It is not the technical question, is mainly politically does not permit. The Vienna government has had the opposing opinion, has not taken action, that was the canal just excavated does not worry. 不是技术问题,主要是政治上不允许。维也纳政府一直都持反对意见,没有采取行动,那是运河才刚刚开挖不着急。 The French capitalists draw Austria to benefit the imperial family to invest, in fact also to let the investors feels at ease, releases the misconception that the Vienna government will not meddle to the outside world. 法国资本家拉奥地利皇室入股,实质上也是为了让股民们安心,给外界释放出维也纳政府不会插手的错觉。 If not know that these people for harvest on the stock market, the Franz ginseng/partake will not gather, even the profit is high. 如果不是知道这些人只是为了在股市上收割,弗朗茨也不会参合进去,即便是利润再丰厚。 The goal of platform has been achieved, having the appearance money not to have the problem to the field. As for the life of Panama Canal Corporation, the investor who this and leaves ahead of time are not related. 站台的目的已经达到了,带着出场费离场没有毛病。至于巴拿马运河公司的死活,这和一个提前离开的投资者没有关系。 The Panama Canal goes on the market in Paris in any case, pit is also the French investor, benefits the relations is not big with Austria. 反正巴拿马运河是在巴黎上市的,坑的也是法国投资者,和奥地利关系不大。 If really the canal company goes bankrupt, this pot is not one's turn Franz to carry. 真要是运河公司破产,这个锅也轮不到弗朗茨来背。 ...... ……