This world some people of self-satisfacations, some people are forever frustrated. 这个世界永远都是有人得意,有人失意。 The biggest loser of London peace conference, without a doubt is the Ottoman empire and Kingdom of Poland, the former loses the city lost territory and livelihood of the people exhausted, is half-dead, the latter was even the autonomy makes contact with. 伦敦和会的最大输家,毫无疑问是奥斯曼帝国和波兰王国,前者丢城失地、民生疲惫,已经半死不活了,后者更是连自主权都搭上了。 Does not raise regardless the detail, from the overall strategically, the UK , France Austria very soon five countries is the winners, realized the strategic goal respectively. 抛开细节不提,从总体战略上来说,英法奥俄普五国都是赢家,各自实现了战略目的。 The Russia person's performance is especially outstanding, from two with the advantage, as if that being insufferably arrogant Russian Empire came back initially. 俄国人的表现尤为突出,从两头拿好处,仿佛当初那个不可一世的俄罗斯帝国又回来了。 However is considered as Alexander II of biggest winner now firmly happy. This time restores the lost territory, roused the morale greatly, originally is a good deed. 不过被认为是最大赢家的亚历山大二世现在确高兴不起来。这次收复失地,大大振奋了军心士气,本来是一件好事。 What a pity the Tsar government somewhat cannot enjoy, is a character making- „poor”. The weaponry fired off, rewards according to merit must always have, can the pension also, who not lift a finger to help the next time also to work oneself to death? 可惜沙皇政府有些受用不起,都是一个字给闹得-“穷”。仗打完了,论功行赏总是少不了的,抚恤金也必须要给点儿,一毛不拔下一次谁还卖命？ The destructive power of war is huge, the lost territory that the Tsar government takes back, needs to invest the fund to restore the livelihood of the people now, in a short time cannot see the return. 战争的破坏力是巨大的,沙皇政府收回的失地,现在也需要投入资金恢复民生,短期内是看不到回报的。 These need money, is seemingly common, in fact does not have over a hundred million rubles really is not insufficient. 这些都需要钱,看似不起眼,实际上没有上亿卢布还真不够用。 Loaned Alexander II not to count on that the international financial institution was played to fear by them, who lent money to their is a fool. 贷款亚历山大二世早就不指望了,国际金融机构都被他们玩儿怕了,谁借钱给他们那就是傻子。 St. Petersburg, Winter Palace 圣彼得堡,冬宫 Alexander II indefinite asking: „Gold standard reforms, really can help us pass the financial crisis?” 亚历山大二世不确定的问:“金本位改革,真的能够帮我们度过财政危机么？” At present in the big powers completes, only then British Austria both countries that the gold standard reforms, who knows that the gold standard helps stabilize the currency value, increases the currency the international competitiveness, but everyone was still waiting and seeing. 目前列强中完成金本位改革的只有英奥两国,谁都知道金本位有利于稳定币值,增加货币的国际竞争力,可是大家仍然在观望。 It is not does not want to imitate, what to do is the issue the gold reserve insufficiently? British Austria both countries monopolized the entire world over 75 gold, making other country very desperate. 不是不想效仿,问题是黄金储备不够怎么办？英奥两国垄断了全世界75以上的黄金,让别的国家很绝望。 Russian Empire calculates well, because the market purchasing power is low, the Russia person is not big to the migrant worker commercial product demand. After the foreign exchange of agricultural export creation levels the expenses, but also be at unfavorable balance of trade condition. 俄罗斯帝国算好的了,因为市场购买力低,俄国人对外来工商业制品需求量不大。靠农产品出口创造的外汇抹平开销后,还处于入超状态。 However this auspicious day continues before the Prussia war, because the reason Tsar government finance of war deteriorates, owed massive foreign loans, started to flow out for the repaying a debt gold and silver massively. 不过这种好日子只是持续到普俄战争前,因为战争的缘故沙皇政府财政恶化,欠下了大量外债,为了还债金银开始大量外流。 Money outflow causes the domestic deflation, the government finance to further deteriorate, to avoid the crisis intensifies, the Tsar government is forced to announce that the bankruptcy repudiates a debt. 金银外流导致国内通货紧缩,政府财政进一步恶化,为了避免危机加剧,沙皇政府被迫宣布破产赖账。 Recuperated for several years to live, Russian Empire recovering consciousness one breath. Through the diplomatic means that erased most debts, reaches the agreement with the English, with the grain deducting repayments, the Russian Empire economy gradually brought about the normalization. 休养了几年生息,俄罗斯帝国才缓过来一口气。通过外交手段,抹掉了大部分债务,又和英国人达成协议,采用粮食抵扣还款,俄罗斯帝国经济逐步实现了正常化。 However the fiscal issue was still the Tsar government biggest difficult problem, to change financial trouble, in 1871 Tsar government under the help that in Austria benefitted distributed the paper ruble. 不过财政问题仍然是沙皇政府最大的难题,为了改变财政困境,1871年沙皇政府在奥地利的帮助下发行了纸卢布。 This tries the water, quantities of first batch of release only then 50 million rubles, what implementation is gold and silver duplicate/restores monetary standard, the reserve of Tsar government is very full, was digested quickly by the market. 这只是试水,首批发行的数量只有5000万卢布,实施的是金银复本位制度,沙皇政府的储备金很足,很快被市场消化掉了。 As suddenly Austria relations deteriorate, the Tsar government financial circle favors cooperates with the English, the situation develops rapidly after a sudden turn. 随着俄奥关系恶化,沙皇政府金融界倾向于和英国人合作,情况就急转直下。 Does not have Austria to benefit the endorsement, the second letter paper ruble quantity issued is also oversized, meets coldly in the capital market. In order to preserve the ratio, the Tsar government has to stop printing. 没有奥地利背书,第二批纸卢布发行量又过大,在资本市场上遇冷。为了保住比值,沙皇政府不得不叫停印刷。 UK and Russia have the agreement, the ruble must join pound- golden system, then the Tsar government has to conduct the gold standard to reform. 英俄两国有约定,卢布要加入英镑-黄金体系,接下来沙皇政府就不得不进行金本位改革。 Russian Empire is also in the world the main gold and silver producer, the domestic economical mass is not big, the import-export trade is also at the state of equilibrium as a whole, theoretically the Tsar government conducts the gold standard to reform has no issue. 俄罗斯帝国也是世界上主要的金银生产国,国内的经济体量又不大,进出口贸易总体上也处于平衡状态,理论上沙皇政府进行金本位改革没有任何问题。 This is only theoretically, after being joined to the credibility of Tsar government, this situation changed. The international capital does not approve, only if with international currency hook, otherwise depends on the Tsar government unable to complete the gold standard only to reform. 这只是理论上的,配上沙皇政府的信誉之后,这种情况就发生了变化。国际资本根本就不认可,除非和国际货币挂钩,不然单靠沙皇政府无法完成金本位改革。 This involved the currency settlement issue, regardless of the pound and aegis hook, others welcome, the condition was simple can only use others' currency settlement. 这又涉及到了货币结算问题,无论和英镑、神盾挂钩,人家都非常欢迎,条件非常简单只能使用别人的货币结算。 Closes up to whom, Russian Empire must have is sheared the wool. Alexander II does not care is sheared the wool, he cares about after the currency value reform, can bring many to profit, can break out of the financial crisis. 无论是向谁靠拢,俄罗斯帝国都少不了被剪羊毛。亚历山大二世不在乎被剪羊毛,他更关心币值改革过后,能够带来多少受益,能不能摆脱财政危机。 First Lord of the Treasury Kristanval: „ Your majesty, completes after theoretically the currency value reformed, we every year can obtain 52 million ~ 5500 large sum of money ruble seigniorages. 财政大臣克里斯坦瓦尔:“陛下,理论上完成了币值改革后,我们每年可以获得5200万万金卢布的铸币税。 This sum of money with economic growth, but increases unceasingly. To improving our fiscal situations, will have very big help. ” 这笔钱还是随着经济增长,而不断增加的。对改善我们的财政情况,会有很大的帮助。” ( Note: 1 new ruble = 0.774 to subdue|grams gold) (备注:一新卢布克黄金) More than 5000 large sum of money rubles, this number is big, surpassed 1/10 of Tsar government finance income. 五千多万金卢布,这个数字已经不小了,超过了沙皇政府财政收入的十分之一。 Must maintain the seigniorage constantly to grow, besides economic growth, but must guarantee that the gold are many enough. 要保持铸币税不断增长,除了经济增长外,还必须要保证黄金足够多。 Kristanval is not worried about the reserve issue, the Russian Empire every year gold production enough makes the reserve. Must otherwise, he not dare the gold standard to reform. 克里斯坦瓦尔不担心储备金问题,俄罗斯帝国每年的黄金产量还是够做储备金的。要不然的话,他也不敢金本位改革。 After must know the monetary reform, the newly issued gold ruble must with the pound hook, the exchange rate, but the floating change, enough reserve may not be able to stand firm the currency value. 要知道货币改革后,新发行的金卢布就要和英镑挂钩,汇率可是浮动变化的,没有足够的储备金可稳不住币值。 After hesitant moment time, Alexander II made decided: „That starts! However with the English cooperates, must enhance vigilance, should not be given the pit by them.” 犹豫了片刻功夫后,亚历山大二世做出了决定:“那就开始吧！不过和英国人合作的时候,必须要提高警惕,不要被他们给坑了。” These step treads, means that suddenly Austria both countries start to separate in the finance, symbolizes that the day of suddenly Austria Union conclusion is not far. 这一步踏出去,就意味着俄奥两国在金融上开始割裂,也标志着俄奥同盟结束之日不远了。 Without the means that is the trouble that the benefit causes. The Tsar government shuts out the Austria advantage to bid too lowly, Franz thought that the Russia person is too greedy, the investment too cannot receive the cost greatly. 没有办法,都是利益惹的祸。沙皇政府嫌弃奥地利出价太低,弗朗茨觉得俄国人太贪婪,投入太大收不回来成本。 The original space and time French was cried by the pit, the Tsar government fell from power, owes the huge debt to throw away carelessly completely, French Financial group therefore caused heavy losses. 原时空法国人就被坑哭了,沙皇政府倒台,欠下了巨额债务全部打了水漂,法国财团都因此遭到重创。 Has to learn from another's mistakes, Franz natural selection discrete. The Austria advantage invests the risk of Russia person to be bigger than the French, with the attitude of Russia person, no one can the surety obligation as many as the certain extent, the Russia person be able to repudiate a debt to provoke the war between two countries. 有前车之鉴在,弗朗茨自然选择了谨慎。奥地利投资俄国人的风险比法国人还大,以俄国人的作风,谁也不能保证债务多到一定程度,俄国人会不会为了赖账而挑起两国之间的战争。 Naturally, Austria benefits the financial circle not to have the British financial circle local tyrant, is an important factor. After all Austria demand to the fund is also very big, without the ability draws cash to fill the pit to the Russia person. 当然,奥地利金融界没有英国金融界土豪,也是一个重要因素。毕竟奥地利自身对资金的需求量也很大,没有能力给俄国人拿钱填坑。 If the Tsar government cannot walk as soon as possible from the financial crisis, once the currency value reform is completed, the ruble tied up the pound, is the English also willing to lend money is also an unknown. 沙皇政府如果不能尽快从财政危机中走出来,一旦币值改革完成,卢布被绑上了英镑,英国人还肯不肯借钱出来也是一个未知数。 The debt between suddenly Austria is a dangerous number, Franz does not dare to accompany the Russia person to be risky with several hundreds of millions aegises, once compensated went in the economy that Austria benefitted also to cause heavy losses. 俄奥之间的债务已经是一个危险数字,弗朗茨可不敢拿数亿神盾陪俄国人冒险,一旦赔了进去奥地利的经济也会遭到重创。 ...... …… Wants not to have the Russia person who conducts the gold standard to reform, what is more anxious than them is a French. 想要进行金本位改革的不只有俄国人,还有比他们更急的是法国人。 Recently the year of silver output increased unceasingly, gold and silver exchange proportion also repeatedly changed, this to the duplicate/restores standard currency, the settlement was a big difficult problem. 最近一些年白银产量不断增加,金银兑换比例也不断发生变化,这对复本位货币来说,结算就是一个大难题。 By gold and silver exchange scale effect, a franc currency value also often changed, this may the pit cry merchant who is engaged in the international trade. 受金银兑换比例影响,法郎的币值也时常发生变化,这可坑哭了从事国际贸易的商人。 The franc currency value is unstable, without doubt weakened the French commodity overseas competitiveness. With the vigorous development of international trade, this change is getting more and more serious. 法郎币值不稳定,无疑是削弱了法国商品的海外竞争力。随着国际贸易的蓬勃发展,这种变化越来越严重。 Before 1854, the French external trade total trade volume was more than 1.5 times that Austria benefitted, the external trade total trade volume of two countries had been almost the same by 1870, was benefitted the counterattack by the present by Austria directly. 在1854年前,法国对外出口贸易总额是奥地利的1.5倍多,到了1870年两国的对外出口贸易总额已经相差无几,到了现在直接被奥地利逆袭了。 These no doubt have the natural resources advantage, for example: Austria benefitted the agricultural product precision work industrial development, increased the value good, driving the export amount to grow. And takes the lead to open the second Industrial Revolution, brought benefits. 这其中固然有自然资源优势,比如说:奥地利农产品精加工产业发展了起来,增加了产品附加值,带动了出口额增长。以及率先开启第二次工业革命,带来的福利。 The franc currency value is not steady similarly is also an important factor, the uncertainty risk that to dodge the currency value change brings, under the same condition, many capitalists rather chooses British Austria product. 法郎币值不稳同样也是一个重要因素,为了规避币值变化带来的不确定性风险,在同等条件下,很多资本家宁愿选择英奥产品。 Recently five years, the export trade average annual rates of growth of British Austria two countries were not lower than 3, but France pitiful 0.8, this number also in continually drop. 最近五年,英奥两国的出口贸易年平均增长率均不低于三,而法兰西只有可怜的0.8,这个数字还在持续下降中。 Is the industry and commerce product quality of France bad? Answer negative. Besides the individual sectors, the UK , France Austria three countries industrial technologies do not have the time disparity. 法国的工商业产品质量差么？答案是否定的。除了个别行业外,英法奥三国工业技术不存在时代差距。 Now the market competition has not reached the stage of superheating, everyone is maintaining the relatively higher profit, will otherwise not be growing together. 现在市场竞争也没有到白热化的阶段,大家都保持着相对较高的利润,要不然也不会一起在增长。 However France gradually falls behind is also the indisputable fact, the French commodity in the market share in the international market grabbing getting smaller. 不过法国逐渐掉队也是不争的事实,法国商品在国际市场上所占据的市场份额越来越小。 Naturally, compared with the derivation space and time, the French present situation is much better, the domestic economy had not caused heavy losses. 当然,比起原时空来说,法国现在的情况还是要好很多,国内经济没有遭到重创。 In order to increase the export commodity competitiveness, a franc currency value reformed also gradually put on the agenda, leads Napoleon IV who this franc gold standard reformed. 为了增加出口商品竞争力,法郎币值改革也逐渐提上了日程,主导这次法郎金本位改革的正是拿破仑四世。 This is also Napoleon III leaves his political legacy, so long as completed a franc gold standard to reform, increased the French commodity international competitiveness, can obtain supporting of capitalists. 这也算是拿破仑三世留给他的政治遗产,只要完成了法郎金本位改革,增加了法国商品国际竞争力,就可以获得资本家们的拥戴。 In 1870, the French government started to reform for the gold standard prepares, unceasing purchased the gold from the international market. Without the means that who makes the gold production of France insufficient? 早在1870年,法国政府就开始为金本位改革做准备,不断的从国际市场上购买黄金。没有办法,谁让法国的黄金产量不足呢？ God this time has not cared for France, in French colony except for lacking coal, the gold production is also low. 上帝这次没有眷顾法兰西,法国殖民地上除了缺煤,黄金产量也非常低。 Own that has not bought, Tsar government that the contrast compels painstakingly, the French government can be called is completely filthy rich. 自家没有那就买好了,对比苦逼的沙皇政府来说,法国政府完全称得上是财大气粗。 After several years of preparation, the French collected 800 tons gold, Napoleon IV also shut out insufficiently. 经过了几年时间的准备,法国人足足凑齐了八百吨黄金,拿破仑四世还嫌弃不够。 This number to overwhelming majority countries, this number are many, but also difference compared with British Austria both countries really far. 这个数字对绝大部分的国家来说,这个数字已经很多了,但是比起英奥两国来说还差之甚远。 At the economical mass of present France empire, makes the reserve is not really many with 800 tons gold. Bottom line at heart Napoleon IV is 1000 tons, if the reserve lowered, some people hyped the franc exchange rate to be big on the trouble. 况且,以现在大法兰西帝国的经济体量,拿八百吨黄金作储备金真的不多。拿破仑四世的心里底线是一千吨,要是储备金低了,有人炒作法郎汇率就麻烦大了。 Paris, Palace of Versailles 巴黎,凡尔赛宫 Napoleon IV unbelievable asking of: „What, can't the market receive the gold unexpectedly?” 拿破仑四世难以置信的问:“什么,市场居然收不到黄金？” This biography absolutely is a flash news, the gold price will at least rise dramatically significantly. 这传出去绝对是一个大新闻,至少金价会大幅度飙升。 First Lord of the Treasury Alan's bitter and astringent explanation: „ Your majesty, conducts the country that the gold standard reforms to be somewhat many in recent years, everyone rushes to purchase the gold in the market. 财政大臣艾伦苦涩的解释道:“陛下,最近几年进行金本位改革的国家有些多,大家都在市场上抢购黄金。 At present the entire world main gold habitat in the British Austria two national champions, they intends to control the golden outflow, market the golden quantity serious insufficiency on circulation. 目前全世界主要的黄金产地都在英奥两国手中,他们有意控制了黄金流出量,市面上的流通的黄金数量严重不足。 In recent years, by the golden circulation insufficient influence, the gold price rose unceasingly, gold and silver exchange compared with from last year 1 : 18.6, rises now 1 : 23.5. 最近几年,受黄金流通量不足影响,金价不断上涨,金银兑换比从去年的1:18.6,涨到了现在的1:23.5。 Even this price, we are still very difficult to buy enough gold. The gold that now international market last every year flows out only has 200-300 tons, radically insufficient everyone difference. ” 即便是这个价格,我们也很难买到足够的黄金。现在国际市场上每年流出的黄金只有200-300吨,根本就不够大家分。” Without the means that recently conducted the country that the gold standard reforms really many. 没有办法,最近进行金本位改革的国家真的很多。 In 1873, the Northern European federation started the gold standard reform, the German federation empire and Prussia kingdom also announced that carried out the gold standard reform, now increases a Russian Empire. 1873年,北欧联邦开始了金本位改革,紧接着德意志联邦帝国、普鲁士王国也宣布进行了金本位改革,现在又增加了一个俄罗斯帝国。 Regardless of Russian Empire for the time being, the domestic golden circulation basically can satisfy the monetary reform to need, the remaining several countries are not the golden lord produce the country. 俄罗斯帝国姑且不论,国内的黄金流通量基本上可以满足货币改革所需,剩下的几个国家可不是黄金主产国。 The gold production can be insufficient, but the reserve of release currency must enough, that only be able to buy to the international market. 黄金产量可以不够,但是发行货币的储备金必须要够,那就只能到国际市场上买了。 The critical moment in various European countries gold standards reforming, bumped into British Austria two countries capital jointly to bid up the high gold exactly, sought exorbitant profits. 在欧洲各国金本位改革的关键时刻,恰好碰上了英奥两国资本联合炒高黄金,从中牟取暴利。 Should not say is exactly, this is the inevitable result. The capital by the advantage, the bamboo pole that delivers does not knock does not knock white/in vain. 不应该说是恰好,这是必然的结果。资本是逐利的,送上门来的竹杠不敲白不敲。 Under this background, is not only the French lacks the gold, other are conducting the country that the gold standard reforms, similarly also faces the difficult problem that the gold is insufficient. 这种背景下,不光是法国人缺黄金,其他正在进行金本位改革的国家,同样也面临着黄金不足的难题。