St. Petersburg, after the agricultural crisis fully breaks out, here became the vortex center of storm. 圣彼得堡,农业危机全面爆发后,这里就成了风暴的漩涡中心。 The European public opinion accuses the Russia person to cause the agricultural crisis intentionally, attempts to take the opportunity to shatter the European agricultural production system, monopolizes the European food supply. 欧洲舆论纷纷指责俄国人故意制造农业危机,企图借机冲垮欧洲农业生产体系,垄断欧洲粮食供应。 This view right, the Tsar government really has also had this plan, but has not implemented with enough time, the agricultural crisis broke out. 这个说法也没错,沙皇政府确实有过这个计划,只不过还没有来得及实施,农业危机就爆发了。 The agriculture is the industry of most difficult monopoly, almost does not have any threshold, who can farm. This year suits the cultivation the land everywhere is, any colonial empire does not need to be under the control of others. 农业是最难垄断的行业,几乎没有任何门槛,谁都可以种地。这年头适合耕种的土地遍地都是,任何一个殖民帝国都不需要受制于人。 The Tsar government has to monopolize the heart of European food supply, ability that has not actually implemented. The Russia agricultural production cost does not get the advantage, wants to win in the competition, is almost not possible. 沙皇政府有垄断欧洲粮食供应之心,却没有实施的能力。俄国农业生产成本不占优势,想要在竞争中获胜,几乎是不可能的。 Facing accusation that the public opinion blots out the sky, Alexander II chose disregarding decisively. In continental Europe, the Tsar government has instead been scolded, he has been used. 面对舆论铺天盖地的指责,亚历山大二世果断的选择了无视。反正在欧洲大陆,沙皇政府一直都在挨骂,他已经习惯了。 The public opinion can pay no attention, however the response of governments in Europe, is actually beyond control Alexander II is not worried. 舆论可以不理,但是欧洲各国政府的反应,却由不得亚历山大二世不担心。 As of April 1873, many politicians had openly said: Must to importing the agricultural product levies additional taxes the tariff, to protect its agriculture. 截止到1873年4月份,已经有多名政客公开表示:要对进口农产品加征关税,以保护本国农业。 All agricultural import tariffs add together, seemingly fair back, in fact thick evil intention. 所有的农产品进口关税一起加,看似公平的背后,实际上还有浓浓的恶意。 At present the market share that in the European four big agricultural product exporters, the Prussia kingdom accounts for is smallest, the received impact is also smallest. 目前欧洲四大农产品出口国中,普鲁士王国所占的市场份额最小,受到的冲击也是最小。 The Kingdom of Poland ranks second from the bottom, now had fallen into the internal struggle, how the situation deteriorates again, is no worse. 波兰王国排名倒数第二,现在已经陷入了内部斗争中,局势再怎么恶化,也坏不到哪里去。 Although in the export amount, Russian Empire ranks second, however in this quantity, the eldest child who they deserve. 尽管在出口总额上,俄罗斯帝国排名第二,但是在这个量上,他们还是当之无愧的老大。 Austria benefits of the export amount to be biggest, besides local grain processing, but also imported the agricultural product of Russia and Poland to process, majority supported by the value good. 奥地利出口总额最大,除了本土粮食加工外,还进口了俄罗斯、波兰的农产品进行加工,大部分是靠产品附加值撑起来的。 After the agricultural crisis breaks out, the Tsar government also prepares itself to begin to process, does not give Austria to stay behind altruistic gains the price difference the opportunity. 农业危机爆发后,沙皇政府也准备自己动手加工,不给奥地利人留下赚差价的机会。 What a pity the domestic industrial strength is too weak, causing the processing cost to stay at a high level, in the face of the fierce market competition, lost the competitiveness. 可惜国内的工业实力太薄弱,导致加工成本居高不下,在残酷的市场竞争面前,丧失了竞争力。 Was attacked by the agricultural crisis, Austria benefitted the agricultural products processing enterprise to reduce the capacity, Russia exported agricultural products that Austria benefitted also to drop, but still occupied more than 50% of foreign agricultural export total amount. 受农业危机冲击,奥地利农产品加工企业削减了产能,俄国出口到奥地利的农产品总量也有所下降,不过仍然占据了对外农产品出口总额的一半以上。 From the perspective of benefit, both sides are also suffer if either one suffers a Rong Jurong. This not Alexander II just received Austria to benefit the telegram of agricultural products processing association of enterprise, hopes that they reduce the grain export total quantity. 从利益的角度上来说,双方也算是一损俱损一荣俱荣。这不亚历山大二世刚刚就收到了奥地利农产品加工企业协会的电报,希望他们削减粮食出口总量。 A lot of inexpensive unprocessed food grains exported in the international market, flowed in various European countries directly, this to the agricultural products processing enterprise that Austria benefitted, was a critical fight. 大量的廉价原粮出口到了国际市场上,直接流入了欧洲各国,这对奥地利的农产品加工企业来说,也是一场生死攸关的战斗。 The market competition becomes even more intense, these processing industries will definitely not sit waiting for death. Does business at a loss to gain called that is not possible. 市场竞争变得越发激烈,这些加工企业肯定不会坐以待毙。赔本赚吆喝,那是不可能的。 Capitalists very astute, the seemingly ordinary telegram, in fact is also an ultimatum. 资本家们都非常的精明,看似平淡无奇的电报,实际上也是一封最后通牒。 Capital by advantage, if the agricultural products processing did not have the profit, the capitalists will not mind immediately abandons. 资本是逐利的,如果农产品加工没有了利润,资本家们是不会介意立即抛弃的。 Since 1872, the astute capitalist is transforming. Now is in the second Industrial Revolution explosion stroke, the project that can invest is many, does not need to hang oneself dead in a tree. 从1872年开始,精明的资本家就在进行转型。现在正处于第二次工业革命爆发期,可以投资的项目还是很多的,没有必要在一颗树上吊死。 If the Russia person is willing to reduce the grain export total quantity, everyone's profit had the safeguard, the business can also continue to do. 如果俄国人肯降低粮食出口总量,大家的利润有了保障,生意还可以继续做下去。 Must otherwise, matter not be easy to do. Fell suddenly the influence by the grain price, in the warehouse of almost every grain capitalist piled up with the grain, returned to warmer weather and other markets. 要不然的话,事情就不好办了。受粮食价格暴跌影响,几乎每一个粮食资本家的仓库里都堆满了粮食,在等市场回暖。 If cannot see the hope, everyone also can only endure suffering to the field. This to the Russia person absolutely is not a good deed, because the relations of suddenly Austria Union, Austria benefits the processing industry first to purchase the Russia agricultural product. 如果看不到希望,大家也是只能忍痛离场。这个对俄国人来说绝对不是一件好事,因为俄奥同盟的关系,奥地利加工企业一直都优先购买俄国农产品。 Was entirely different to the continental Europe situation, under the same condition, has almost no capitalist to be willing with the Russia person to cooperate. 到了欧洲大陆情况就截然不同了,在同等的条件下,几乎没有哪个资本家愿意和俄国人合作。 This is loses the prestige the sequela, is not the short time can make up. Now Russia agricultural export, depended is inexpensive. 这是丧失信誉的后遗症,不是短时间能够弥补的。现在俄国农产品出口,靠的就是廉价。 The international grain price declines unceasingly, in fact was drawn by the Russia grain export. To sell the grain, they have to reduce prices. 国际粮食价格不断走低,实际上就是被俄国粮食出口拉下去的。为了把粮食销售出去,他们不得不进行降价。 The Russia person falls the grain export price, the market also can only follow to fall. The present international grain price, is for dozens years bottom, everyone's profit was pushed not to have. 俄国人把粮食出口价格一降,市场也只能跟着降。现在的国际粮食价格,已经是数十年来的最低点,大家的利润都被挤没了。 Alexander II knows consequence that does, but looks at the grain that piles up, loses money they also only to sell. 亚历山大二世知道这么干的后果,可是看着堆积如山的粮食,赔钱他们也只能卖。 „Losing money” the definition could not be generally spoken, what the grain of exit|to speak trades is the foreign exchange, but domestic circulation is the paper ruble. 况且“赔钱”的定义还不能一概而论,出口的粮食换回来的是外汇,而国内流通的则是纸卢布。 Paper ruble that the Tsar government distributes, the outside world does not approve. In international trade, what currently uses are most is the gold, silver, pound, aegis and franc. 沙皇政府发行的纸卢布,外界是不认可的。在国际贸易中,目前使用最多的还是黄金、白银、英镑、神盾、法郎。 Ruble international reputation, might as well Northern European federation krona, cannot compare the guilder of Holland, even Switzerland franc and Prussia Mark, compares ruble popular. 卢布的国际信誉,还不如北欧联邦的克朗,也比不上荷兰的荷兰盾,即便是瑞士的法郎和普鲁士的马克,都比卢布受欢迎。 From national development perspective, even if suffers a loss again, the Tsar government must gain the foreign exchange as far as possible, otherwise could not balance the trade deficit, will cause gold and silver to flow out. 从国家发展角度上来说,就算是再吃亏,沙皇政府也必须要尽可能的获取外汇,要不然平衡不了贸易逆差,会导致金银外流。 Has compensated is not the means that to level the loss, the Tsar government had conducted twice depreciation to the ruble. 只是一直赔下去也不是办法,为了抹平损失,沙皇政府已经对卢布进行了两次贬值。 This to just conducted the ruble that the gold standard reforms, without doubt is heavy strikes, damaged the market confidence seriously. 这对刚刚进行金本位改革的卢布来说,无疑是沉重的一击,严重的打击了市场信心。 The currency is impossible to depreciate, the economists had issued the warning to Alexander II, plays again, the market was played rottenly , to continue to make the currency with gold and silver! 货币不可能一直贬值下去,经济学家们已经向亚历山大二世发出了警告,再这么玩儿下去,市场被玩儿烂了,还是继续用金银做货币吧！ Adjusted a mood, Alexander II: „Austria benefits the telegram of agricultural products processing association of enterprise, how do you see?” 调节了一下情绪,亚历山大二世:“奥地利农产品加工企业协会的电报,你们怎么看？” An industry association can send the telegram threat to him directly, this made Alexander II very indignant. If there is choice, he really wants to cut off transaction of both sides to consider as finished. 一个行业协会都可以直接向他发电报威胁,这令亚历山大二世非常的气愤。如果不是没有选择,他真的想断绝双方的交易算了。 Naturally wants to turn over to think, really must make that is considers as finished. Without this biggest buyer, their days will be sadder. 当然想归想,真要去做那还是算了。没有了这个最大的买家,他们的日子还会更加难过。 First Lord of the Treasury Kristanval: „ Your majesty, only if various countries reduce the grain export quantity together, jointly pull-up grain price, otherwise we cannot reduce the volume of exports. 财政大臣克里斯坦瓦尔:“陛下,除非各国一起削减粮食出口量,联手拉升粮食价格,不然我们绝不能削减出口量。 Currently the home also has a lot of agricultural products to be unsalable, particularly the newly developed Siberia area, the local grain radically nobody will ask, the tax revenue of government is the grain. 目前国内还有大量的农产品滞销,尤其是新开发的西伯利亚地区,当地粮食根本就无人问津,政府的税收都是粮食。 Ministry of Finance is organizing the manpower to transport, if cannot sell, these tax revenues were all finished. 财政部正在组织人手运输,如果不能销售出去,这些税收就全完蛋了。 Grain unsalable issue, if really does not have the means solution, with used these grain to repay the foreign loan to be good. No matter they do accept, we only pay with the grain. ” 粮食滞销问题,要是实在没有办法解决,拿就用这些粮食偿还外债好了。不管他们接不接受,我们只用粮食支付。” It looks like in Kristanval, front repudiates a debt everyone to endure. Now Tsar government agrees acknowledged that beforehand debt, this has shown due respect for the feelings, but also wants to pick inadequately? 在克里斯坦瓦尔看来,前面赖账大家都能够忍受。现在沙皇政府肯承认之前的债务,这已经非常给面子了,还想要挑三拣四不成？ Foreign minister Chris Bassham shakes the head again and again: „ It is not good, our with great difficulty talents and various countries reached the agreement, if does, will immediately fall into the diplomatic predicament. 外交大臣克里斯・巴沙姆连连摇头:“不行,我们好不容易才和各国达成了协议,要是这么干,马上又会陷入外交困境。 According to beforehand agreement, various countries had agreed that we divide the raid to pay off a debt in labor with the agricultural product, does not need to do such extreme. ” 按照事先的约定,各国已经同意我们分批次用农产品抵债,没有必要搞这么极端。” The grain pays off a debt in labor is the biggest achievements of Russia Ministry of Foreign Affairs, figures out the score for 15 years to repay all debts. If repays the debt with the grain all of a sudden completely, they solved the agricultural crisis actually, but the creditor cannot bear! 粮食抵债是俄国外交部的最大政绩,共计分十五年偿还所有债务。要是一下子全部用粮食偿还掉债务,他们倒是解决了农业危机,但债主受不了啊！ Grain that cannot sell, that is not worth a red cent. Chris Bassham does not hope the achievement of Ministry of Foreign Affairs is destroyed in a moment, then to Russian Empire is also a disaster. 卖不出去的粮食,那是一文不值。克里斯・巴沙姆可不希望外交部的成果毁于一旦,那对俄罗斯帝国也是一场灾难。 Reduces the capacity the words, everyone tacit has not raised. Last year Austria benefits the production cut that initiated to summon, had turned into a joke. 削减产能的话,大家都默契的没有提出来。奥地利去年发起的减产号召,已经变成了一个笑话。 Except that Austria reduced the grain cultivation acreage, the suddenly three countries shout the slogan, released several laws. 除了奥地利自己削减了粮食种植面积,俄普波三国都只是喊了喊口号,出台了几部法律。 When implements specifically, everyone discovered that is not that a matter. The law is impossible to stipulate that which place planting crops, which place cannot plant crops. 在具体实施的时候,大家才发现根本就不是那么回事。法律不可能规定哪一块地种粮,哪一块地不能种粮。 Any law wants to implement, does not leap, but. Even by fallow law of social extensive recognition, to concrete implementation time, the following official does not know that which land fallow, which land has not had the fallow. 任何法令想要实施,都不是一跃而就。即便是被社会广泛认可的休耕法,到了具体实施的时候,下面的官员也不知道哪一块土地休耕过,哪一块土地没有休耕过。 Beforehand does not have to count, what discussed the execution? In the face of the reality, each region official's tacit choice will count from now on. 事先没有进行统计,又何谈执行呢？在现实面前,各地官员默契的选择从现在开始统计。 This year if planted the grain, then next year this land on this/should fallow. Clearness that everyone counts, no one had the words to say. 今年要是种植了粮食,那么明年这一块土地就该休耕了。大家都统计的明明白白,谁都没有话说。 Finally this year various countries' grain cultivation acreage does not reduce instead increases, the government similarly is helpless. Wants and other regulative display functions, possibly needs of several years. 结果今年各国粮食种植面积不减反增,政府同样是无能为力。想要等调控发挥作用,可能需要数年之久。 The function of market self- regulation, is possibly more effective than the law of government. Loses money continuously for several years the time, the general public are not necessarily able to reduce the grain cultivation acreage, but the aristocrats will certainly reduce production. 市场自我调控的作用,可能比政府的法令更加有效。连续赔钱数年时间,普通民众未必会减少粮食种植面积,但是贵族们一定会减产。 Agriculture minister Manilov hits to block the way: „ Two disputed these not to have the significance, only if solved the agricultural crisis fundamentally, otherwise the following crisis will be only more serious. 农业大臣马尼洛夫打断道:“两位争执这些没有意义,除非从根本上解决农业危机,要不然后面的危机只会更加严重。 Even if threw the grain to the creditor forcefully, that still can only not going to the roots of the problem, the agricultural crisis 1-2 years cannot get rid. 就算是强行把粮食丢给了债主,那也只能治标不治本,农业危机不是1-2时间能够摆脱的。 According to Austria benefits the data that Ministry of Agriculture releases, if not take the measure, whatever the market adjusts, this agricultural cold winter may continue for more than ten years. 根据奥地利农业部发布的数据,如果不采取措施,任由市场自行调节,这次农业寒冬可能会持续十几年。 Russia is a large agricultural nation, if the agricultural crisis continues for more than ten years, the preliminary estimate home will have more than ten million farmers therefore to go bankrupt, even may be 20 million and 30 million. 俄罗斯是一个农业大国,如果农业危机持续十几年时间,初步估计国内会有上千万农民因此破产,甚至有可能是两千万、三千万。 Quick that the empire industrialization develops, but wants to hold so many bankrupt population, is not the short time can complete. 帝国工业化进程发展的很快,但是想要容纳这么多破产人口,也不是短时间能够完成的。 We the biggest problem, is not the domestic grain is now unsalable, but how to guarantee the farmer does not go bankrupt massively. 我们现在最大的问题,不是国内粮食滞销,而是如何保证农民不大规模破产。 According to the current situation, this year the domestic bankrupt farmer will be last year several times, probably 5 ~ 80,000 families went bankrupt, the agricultural crisis continued, this number will show the geometrical growth every year. ” 按照目前的情况,今年国内破产农民将会是去年的数倍,大概会有五~8万个家庭破产,农业危机持续下去,这个数字每年都会呈几何式增长。” Has not stated clearly on the difference: The grain could not finish eating, goes to war! 就差没明说:粮食吃不完,还是打仗吧！ The agricultural crisis breaks out is not the time, if several years, happen to caught up with Prussia in time of war early, perhaps the war result was rewritten. 农业危机爆发的不是时候,如果要是早几年时间,正好赶上了普俄战争时期,没准战争结果就被改写了。 The gray draft animal is not valuable, so long as in the hand has the grain, the Tsar government can work the war. Can let Tsar that the soldier eats to sate the appetite, that is good Tsar, other issue can overcome. 灰色牲口不值钱,只要手中有粮,沙皇政府就可以把战争进行下去。能够让士兵吃饱饭的沙皇,那已经是好沙皇了,别的问题都可以克服。 Do not look that the present Russian Empire seemed like slightly, if erupted into the war, the war-making potential of Russia person, absolutely far over several years ago. 不要看现在的俄罗斯帝国似乎是小了一圈,要是爆发了战争,俄国人的战争潜力,绝对远超几年前。 This is grain many advantage, how the grain again unsalable, so long as the farmer does not go bankrupt massively, issue in controllable range. To put it bluntly, everyone ate to the full, no one revolted. 这就是粮多的好处,粮食再怎么滞销,只要农民不大规模破产,问题都在可控范围了。说白了,大家都吃饱了,也就没人造反了。 The agricultural crisis is so serious, the Russia farmers have not accused the Tsar government, the prestige of Alexander II has not damaged slightly, is the benefit that eats to sate the appetite to provide. 农业危机这么严重,俄国农民都没有指责沙皇政府,亚历山大二世的威望丝毫未损,就是吃饱饭带来的好处。 After pondering the moment time, Alexander II decided bows down to the reality. „Dead fellow daoist not dead this poor Daoist”, others unlucky total has bad luck. 沉思了片刻功夫后,亚历山大二世还是决定向现实屈服。“死道友不死贫道”,别人倒霉总比自己倒霉好。 „Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Vienna government penetrate communicate, this time spares nothing, must drag down them.” “外交部和维也纳政府深入沟通,这次不惜一切代价,也要把他们拉下水。” Experienced a failure, the arrogance of Alexander II had reduced, restrained in the conduct. 经历了一次失败,亚历山大二世的傲气已经消减了很多,在行事上收敛了很多。 This is a crisis, similarly is also an opportunity. Good that if operates, Russian Empire can also with the aid of the strength that Austria benefits, gets rid of an enemy. 这是一次危机,同样也是一次机遇。如果操作的好,俄罗斯帝国还可以借助奥地利的力量,干掉一个敌人。 ...... ……