Agricultural crisis in fact already during fermentation, Russian greatly opening up wasteland movement, a blasting fuse that but the agricultural crisis breaks out. 农业危机实际上早就在酝酿之中,俄国人的大开荒运动,只是农业危机爆发的一根导火索。 After the 19 th century, agricultural production technology development unusual is quick, especially the wheel plows the technology to promote in Europe, greatly raised the utilization rate of land. 进入19世纪后,农业生产技术发展的非常快,特别是轮耕技术在欧洲推广,大幅度提高了土地的利用率。 The new production tool continuously was developed, began mechanized agriculture time, making a farmer be able to cultivate more lands. 新的生产工具不断被开发出来,拉开了机械化农业时代序幕,让一个农民能够耕种更多的土地。 This period, the agricultural output also starts to grow significantly. The grain yield of various countries unceasing revolution record, take Austria for instance grain production speed-up all the year round over 3. 这一时期,农业产量也大幅度开始增长。各国的粮食产量都在不断的刷新记录,以奥地利为例粮食增产量增速长年超过三。 The same period speed of population growth, cannot catch up with the growth of grain yield by far. Biggest advantage that the grain yield grows, is to make most people be able to fill the belly. The related agricultural and subsidiary products increase, enriched the tables of people. 同时期的人口增长速度,远远赶不上粮食产量的增长。粮食产量增长的最大好处,就是让大部分人能够填饱肚子。相关的农副产品增加,也丰富了民众们的餐桌。 In the population increase process, the agricultural population is also growing. Although with the development of industry, a large number of the rural labor forces in the process of urbanization turned into the worker, the proportion that the agricultural population accounts for continuously is reducing, but this quantity increases. 在人口增长过程中,农业人口也在随之增长。尽管随着工业的发展,在城镇化的过程中大量的农村劳动力变成了工人,农业人口所占的比例在不断降低,但是这个数量还是增加的。 Under this background, to make more income, the folk starts the reclaiming wasteland movement spontaneously. Russians opens up wasteland greatly is not the first case, at first Austria makes the bad start. 这种背景下,为了获得获得更多的收入,民间自发开始垦荒运动。俄国人的大开荒也不是首例,最初还是奥地利开得坏头。 The Austrian domestic agrarian revolution is imperfect, the aristocrat has a lot of lands as before, to meet farmer's need to land, mysterious was the Balkan Peninsula to be developed. 奥地利国内的土地革命并不完善,贵族依旧持有大量的土地,为了满足农民对土地的需求,奥属巴尔干半岛就这么被开发了出来。 Compared with 1850, the Austrian cultivated area had doubled. The cake did in a big way, the domestic land question was naturally easily solved. 和1850年相比,奥地利本土的耕地面积已经增加了一倍。蛋糕做大了,国内的土地问题自然是迎刃而解。 Alexander II conducts the big opening up wasteland movement, in fact studies the successful experience of Austria, since the farmer needs the land, that increases the domestic land the supply. The land changed, contradictory naturally untied. 亚历山大二世搞大开荒运动,实际上就是学习奥地利的成功经验,既然农民需要土地,那就加大国内土地的供应量。土地变多了,矛盾自然就解开了。 Such a, the grain overcapacity does not have to prevent. In the Austrian agricultural development process, the Vienna government is still intending to guide the people to plant the industrial crop. 这么一来,粮食产能过剩就无可阻挡。奥地利农业发展过程中,维也纳政府还在有意引导民众种植经济作物。 For example: Lombardy and changing rice of Wigny West Asia is the mulberry plan, but also developed the necessary raw silk industry ; The vineyard plan of Bosnia, the raisin and wine industry also developed. 比如说:伦巴第和威尼西亚地区的改稻为桑计划,还发展出了配套的生丝产业;波黑地区的葡萄园计划,葡萄干、葡萄酒产业也发展了起来。 These have the development of plan, in avoidable grain overcapacity as far as possible. However this is also futile attempt, the grain output in unceasing increasing. 这些有规划的发展,都是在尽可能的避免粮食产能过剩。不过这也是杯水车薪,粮食总产量还是在不断攀升中。 If not very soon war erupts, Russian Empire also erupted the civil war, caused heavy losses to the agricultural production of Russia, this crisis will break out several years ago. 如果不是普俄战争爆发,俄罗斯帝国还爆发了内战,重创了俄国的农业生产,这场危机在几年前就会爆发了。 Was short of a grain export wealthy and powerful family, Europe has not presented the grain shortage, now the Russian returned the grain export market, the capacity also wins in the past, how regardless of the market could not wrap up. 少了一个粮食出口大户,欧洲都没有出现过粮荒,现在俄国人重新回到粮食出口市场,产能还更胜往昔,市场无论如何也兜不住了。 Europe did not worry that receives the grain price attacked country only has three, the English naturally is one of them, otherwise they do not dare to light this fire. 欧洲不担心受到粮食价格受冲击的国家只有三个,英国人自然是其中之一,要不然他们也不敢点燃这把火。 British industrialization morning, the industrial population has exceeded the agricultural population, the proportion in the agricultural internally total output accounting for is low. 不列颠工业化进行的早,工业人口早就超过了农业人口,农业在国内生产总值中所占的比例已经非常低了。 The small peasant economy collapses in the enclosure movement, the land relative centralization, the risk tolerance is strong, is in itself the world's largest agricultural product importer, naturally does not fear the grain price blood from uterus. 小农经济早在圈地运动中崩溃,土地相对集中化,抗风险能力较强,本身又是全世界最大的农产品进口国,自然不怕粮食价格血崩。 Another two countries are Belgium and Monaco, the latter does not need to know, having a look at the land area to know, a seaside small village, basic on no agriculture. 另外两个国家就是比利时和摩纳哥,后者不用都知道,看看国土面积就知道,一个临海小村庄,根本就没有啥农业。 Belgium is also a grain importer, in continental Europe the earliest industrialized country, the industrial developed agricultural output value is low, does not need to be worried that was attacked. 比利时也是一个粮食进口国,欧洲大陆上最早的工业国,工业发达农业产值较低,不用担心受到冲击。 Pure economically, after the agricultural crisis breaks out, the loss of Austria without doubt is biggest. As the biggest agricultural product exporter, the received shock effect is also biggest. 单纯从经济上出发,农业危机爆发后,奥地利的损失无疑是最大的。作为最大的农产品出口国,受到的冲击影响也最大。 Calculates the agricultural population purely, the agricultural population of Austria also exceeds the total population quantity half, saying Austria was an agricultural country does not have the issue. 单纯计算农业人口,奥地利的农业人口还超过总人口数量的一半,说奥地利是一个农业国都没有问题。 However with the development of economy, many land few farmers, in fact in the family/home also has the strong labor force to enter a city to work relatively. 不过随着经济的发展,很多土地相对较少的农民,实际上家中也有壮劳力进城务工。 Not only farm and work, they cannot be considered as the farmer purely, or is a worker. When the statistics, the two sides were often counted on. 既种地又做工,他们不能单纯的被认为是农民,或者说是工人。在统计数据的时候,往往两边都被统计上了。 The proportion that the different provinces, the agricultural population accounts for is also different. The economical quite developed Bohemia area, the agricultural population quantity accounts for the proportion to be lower than 40% ; But the agricultural developed Hungary area, the agricultural population accounts for the proportion also to reach as high as 70-80%. 不同的省份,农业人口所占的比例也不一样。经济较为发达的波西米亚地区,农业人口数量所占比例已经低于百分之四十;而农业发达的匈牙利地区,农业人口所占比例还高达70-80%。 The proportion of migrant worker, occupied a large number. Certain densely populated villages, enter the city work the young labor force to reach as high as 90%. 这其中农民工的比例,又占据了相当一部分。某些人口密集的村庄,入城务工的青壮劳动力高达百分之九十。 The situation in France is more serious, the Italian area holds back seriously, particularly south Italy area. If counts the city and countryside income to discover, absolutely does not have many differences, will also present the city worker income to be lower than the situation of farmer. 法国的情况更加严重,意大利地区严重拖了后腿,尤其是南意大利地区。如果统计城乡收入就会发现,根本就没有多少区别,甚至还会出现城市工人收入低于农民的情况。 This cannot explain that the Italian area agriculture is developed, can only show that the urban economy of Italy is bleak. Although early of quite these city development, but limited to the resources, the industrial development of Italy is difficult. 这不能说明意大利地区农业发达,只能证明意大利的城市经济萧条。尽管这些城市发展的比较早,但是受限于资源,意大利的工业发展非常困难。 This is also the Russian closes up to the English, not to the primary cause that the French closes up. The English can not fear that the agriculture was attacked, dares to make the Russian agricultural product enter, the French is not good. 这也是俄国人向英国人靠拢,没有向法国人靠拢的主要原因。英国人可以不怕农业受到冲击,敢让俄国农产品进入,法国人可不行。 The French agricultural population are many, in addition economical frail Italy area, once the grain price falls suddenly, the market was under the impact, could not do well wants the rocket to rise from all directions. 法国本土的农业人口就已经很多,再加上经济脆弱的意大利地区,一旦粮食价格暴跌,市场受到了冲击,搞不好就要狼烟四起了。 „ Grain price relations are major, the impact various countries market, the brought rebound will inevitably be rashly fierce. “粮食价格关系重大,冒然冲击各国市场,带来的反弹势必会非常剧烈。 The agriculture is different from the industry, even if in the market presented the overcapacity, in a short time the producers will not adjust, even the output will also continue to increase. 况且,农业不同于工业,就算是市场上出现了产能过剩,短时间内生产者们也不会进行调节,甚至产量还会继续增加。 We can regulate the domestic market, the guidance people reduce the grain cultivation acreage, actually cannot affect other country. At least we do not have the means to make the Russian farmers reduce production, most can only make them go bankrupt. 我们能够调控国内市场,引导民众减少粮食种植面积,却影响不到别的国家。至少我们没有办法让俄国农民减产,最多只能让他们破产。 Beats various countries' agricultural production market, establishes the monopolistic position in the agricultural production exit|to speak domain. Said frankly, I do not favor this plan to be successful. 击垮各国农业生产市场,在农产出口领域建立垄断地位。坦率的说,我并不看好这项计划能够成功。 This world, suited the cultivation the land area is too big, but the agricultural product consumer market was also too small. 这个世界,适合耕种的土地面积太大了,而农产品消费市场又太小了。 If nothing else, so long as understood that mysterious is the situation in Africa, everyone should know, if desired, the grain capacity of Austria can turn several times momentarily. 别的不说,只要了解一下奥属非洲的情况,大家就应该知道,如果需要的话,奥地利的粮食产能随时可以翻几倍。 The English, Portugueses, Dutch and French, they are not also deficient produce the grain the colony. Once discovered that we have the sign of monopoly international grain export market, the blockade definitely will happen. ” 英国人、葡萄牙人、荷兰人、法国人,他们同样也不缺乏生产粮食的殖民地。一旦发现我们有垄断国际粮食出口市场的迹象,阻击必然会发生。” Obviously, Prime Minister Felix is a sane faction. Has not supported the great plan of Ministry of Agriculture, instead favors the protracted war that the First Lord of the Treasury proposed. 显然,费利克斯首相是一个理智派。并没有支持农业部的伟大的计划,反而是更加倾向于财政大臣提出的持久战。 Is relying on advantage in the production cost, only needs to rub slowly, in the agricultural export market, Austria will be doomed to be in the important position. 凭借着生产成本上的优势,只需要慢慢磨下去,在农产品出口市场上,奥地利就注定会占据重要地位。 As for potential biggest competitor Confederate States of America, is not the threat. In the face of the benefit, the plantation main naturally can make the correct choice. 至于潜在的最大竞争对手美利坚联盟国,根本就不是威胁。在利益面前,种植园主们自然会做出正确的选择。 The original space and time US has not had the fission, after the American Civil War, the US lost the hegemonic position in international cotton market, the grain cultivation industry developed. 原时空美国没有发生分裂,南北战争过后,美国丧失了在国际棉花市场上的霸主地位,粮食种植产业才发展了起来。 Now the American federal state is a wealthy agricultural country , to continue to wrest away hegemonic position in the cotton production market. Without the experience defeats is suppressed, other cotton habitat absolutely would have no means and they competes. 现在美利坚联邦国可是一个富裕的农业国,继续霸占着棉花生产市场上的霸主地位。没有经历战败被打压,别的棉花产地根本就没有办法和他们竞争。 Who will eat to the full is supporting, has the large profit not to take, runs to jump the endocrater of grain export market? 谁会吃饱了撑着,有丰厚的利润不拿,跑去跳粮食出口市场的巨坑？ Right, now the international grain export market had turned into the endocrater. Before deciding victory and defeat, in the future a long time, the grain producers day of various countries will not feel better. 没错,现在国际粮食出口市场已经变成了巨坑。在没有分出胜负前,未来很长一段时间内,各国的粮食生产者们日子都不会好过。 If Austria has the American such advantageous condition, similarly will not die to knock the grain market. Now Ministry of Agriculture proposed that beats various European countries agricultural production system, in fact this is also the big aristocrats in the promoter. 如果奥地利拥有美国人那样得天独厚的条件,同样也不会死磕粮食市场。现在农业部提出击垮欧洲各国农业生产体系,实际上这也是大贵族们在推手。 In the surface is the profit in present agriculture, cannot satisfy their appetites, wants to monopolize the European food supply, by gaining a bigger benefit. 表面上是现在农业上的利润,已经不能满足他们的胃口,想要垄断欧洲粮食供应,以获取更大的利益。 In fact, what are more is to discard that a series of tax revenue, increases own income. Monopolizes the European food supply, who knows the hope to be uncertain, but cuts tax everyone to like! 实际上,更多的还是想要废掉那一系列的税收,增加自己的收入。垄断欧洲粮食供应,谁都知道希望渺茫,可是减税人人都喜欢啊！ Beforehand Franz has received many persuasive speakers, nothing but was said that the country is wealthy, did not lack in the agriculture that son income,...... 事先弗朗茨就接见过了不少说客,无非是说国家已经富裕了,不缺农业上那点儿收益了,是不是…… Naturally cannot reject as Franz of upper crust benefit spokesman, but he must consider the national interest as the emperor, therefore this agricultural economy conference appeared. 作为贵族阶级利益代言人的弗朗茨自然不能够拒绝,不过作为皇帝他又必须要考虑国家利益,因此这场农业经济会议出现了。 The final result naturally was the government reduced part of tax revenues, made up for them the loss in this disturbance, comforted the upper crust. Considering the wallet, has not avoided completely. 最终的结果自然是政府削减了一部分税收,弥补了他们在这场风波中的损失,安抚了贵族阶级。考虑到钱包,并没有全部免除。 As for the peasant class, they caught the bandwagon. Otherwise cuts tax, the grain subsidy price, these consider their interest the policy, how to be raised by the bureaucrats? 至于农民阶级,他们是搭上了顺风车。要不然减税、粮食保护价,这些照顾他们利益的政策,怎么可能被官僚们提出来呢？ The reason is unimportant, so long as the practical interests can take, that was right. Until now, compares the aristocrats, the land that the Austrian farmers hold are in fact more, approximately occupies native area 34. 原因并不重要,只要实际利益能够拿到手,那就对了。时至今日,相比贵族们来说,奥地利农民所占有的土地实际上更多,大约占据本土地面积的34。 Unknowingly, the aristocrat becomes the peasant class benefit spokesman politically unexpectedly. This result, came as a surprise to Franz completely. 不知不觉中,贵族居然成为了农民阶级在政治上的利益代言人。这个结果,完全出乎了弗朗茨的意料。 Looked that the conference was similar, the radical plan of Ministry of Agriculture had been rejected by the cabinet, Franz knows that this/should performed. 看会议进行的差不多了,农业部的激进计划已经被内阁否决掉了,弗朗茨知道该自己表演了。 „ Monopolizing the European food supply success ratio is too low, the matter of impact various countries agricultural production system must be done, but cannot be extremely extreme. “垄断欧洲粮食供应成功率太低,冲击各国农业生产体系的事情要做,但是不能太过极端。 First Lord of the Treasury's suggestion is good, can first British and Russian agreement start, has a look at British and Russian friendship sturdily, cleans up our old grain while convenient. 财政大臣的建议就不错,可以先英俄协定下手,看看英俄友谊有多牢靠,顺便清理一下我们的陈粮。 The plan of Ministry of Agriculture takes the rework, reduces us the existence feeling as far as possible in this disturbance, the reason that the grain price falls suddenly must be the Russian causes. 农业部的计划拿回去重做,尽可能降低我们在这次风波中的存在感,粮食价格暴跌的原因必须是俄国人导致的。 Once the agricultural crisis fully breaks out, Europe will definitely erupt farmer bankruptcy tide, the time might also very be long. 一旦农业危机全面爆发,欧洲肯定会爆发一场农民破产潮,持续的时间还有可能会很长。 The colonizing section must go into action immediately, from various European countries natives of Latvia. Especially Russian Empire, they can be the disaster area of this crisis, has the duty to help them eliminate the hidden danger as the ally. ” 殖民部也要立即行动起来,从欧洲各国拉人。尤其是俄罗斯帝国,他们会是这次危机的重灾区,作为盟友有义务帮他们消除隐患。” In the agricultural crisis of original space and time, the German area is the disaster area, during this period several million German immigration US. 原时空的这次农业危机中,德意志地区是重灾区,在这期间有数百万德国人移民美国。 Now the situation changed, Austria had gathered the immigration in the German area repeatedly, over -populated situations have been solved. 现在情况发生了变化,奥地利已经多次在德意志地区招揽移民,人口过剩的情况已经得以解决。 The best proof is the German federation empire, established so many years, the total population has not broken through 10 million, is marking completely. 最好的证明就是德意志联邦帝国,建立了这么多年,总人口还没有突破一千万,完全就是在原地踏步。 If sees their immigration data, everyone will not feel strangely. From 1854 to the present, the German federation empire population flows out to reach as high as 3.5 million. 如果看到他们的移民数据,大家就不会感到奇怪了。从1854年到现在,德意志联邦帝国人口流出高达350万。 Ran so many, the domestic population naturally cannot rise. If so many people keep in same place multiplication, by the local proportion of births to population and mortality rate computation, the population of German federation empire has broken through 16 million now. 跑出去了这么多,当地人口自然涨不上去了。要是这么多人都留在原地繁衍,按照当地的人口出生率和死亡率计算,现在德意志联邦帝国的人口早就突破1600万了。 Here wool cut similarly, Franz extended Russian Empire the hand. Even is defeated in very soon war, threw several million square kilometers territory, Russian Empire still also had 74 million population. 这边的羊毛剪得差不多了,弗朗茨又把手伸到了俄罗斯帝国。即便是在普俄战争中失败,丢了几百万平方公里领土,俄罗斯帝国依然还有七千四百万人口。 Franz has played the stimulation to give birth, the proportions of births to population of Austrian many place, lower compared with the Russian. If not the Austrian mortality rate is lower, the growth rate of population cannot follow the Russian absolutely. 弗朗茨都已经玩儿刺激生育了,奥地利很多地方的人口出生率,还是要比俄国人低。如果不是奥地利死亡率更低,人口增长率是绝对跟不上俄国人的。 According to analysis of the sociologists, Russian Empire will erupt the baby boom over the next several years continually, attained the farmer of land to make an effort to live, the proportion of births to population was likely to break through 6. 按照社会学家们的分析,未来几年俄罗斯帝国会持续爆发婴儿潮,拿到了土地的农民会使劲生,人口出生率有望突破六。 This data is not strange, the average life span of Russian Empire breaks, the population structure is mainly underage, young people and middle-aged people, over 45-year-old people are few. 这个数据并不奇怪,俄罗斯帝国的人均寿命断,人口结构主要是未成年、青少年、中年人,超过45岁的人都非常少。 Analyzes from the data, that is Russian Empire has over half of people are the birth population of age, such high young proportion, the people lack the recreational activity in addition, is all right goes home to make one, the proportion of births to population was naturally high. 从数据上分析,那就是俄罗斯帝国有超过一半的人都是适龄生育人口,这么高的青壮比例,加上民众们缺乏娱乐活动,没事就回家造人,人口出生率自然就高了。 Not only the Russian Empire birth population of age are many, the birth population proportion of age almost every country is high, majorities of countries over 40%. 不光俄罗斯帝国适龄生育人口多,几乎每一个国家的适龄生育人口比例都高,大部分国家都在百分之四十以上。 After the 19 th century, the European population entered the suddenly rising period, various countries' growth rate of population is quick, what the growth is slowest is a French, next is Spain and Italy. 进入19世纪后,欧洲人口进入了暴涨期,各国人口增长率都很快,增长速度最缓慢的是法国人,其次是西班牙和意大利。 The primary cause leaves economically , without the farmer of sufficient land unable to live. The workers not to mention, the abandoned baby quantity of staying at a high level speaks for itself. 主要原因还是出在经济上,没有足够土地的农民已经生不起了。工人更不用说,居高不下的弃婴数量就足以说明问题。 Naturally the policy of government, causes the three-country growth rate of population not high important factors. This age, cannot say that these policies were completely wrong. 当然政府的政策,也是导致三国人口增长率不高的重要因素。在这个年代来看,不能说这些政策完全就错了。 The domestic economic development does not see the improvement, if not suppress the population to grow, the person who comes out how raises? 国内的经济发展不见起色,如果不抑制人口增长,多出来的人怎么养的起？ The French is the exception, their issues cannot raise, is messing about completely. 法国人是例外,他们的问题不是养不起,完全是自己在瞎折腾。 The grain price blood from uterus, Russian Empire of population high birth rate definitely is the disaster area, keeps the domestic words, child's many families definitely cannot raise. 粮食价格血崩,人口高出生率的俄罗斯帝国肯定是重灾区,留在国内的话,孩子多的家庭肯定养不起。 At this time immigrated, but reduced the pressure in Alexander II. No matter the czar government does not prefer, during this period they are impossible to prevent the people from leaving. 这个时候移民,可是在亚历山大二世减轻压力。不管沙皇政府多么不情愿,在这期间他们是不可能阻止民众离开的。 From this perspective, both sides also accord to his need. To stabilizing first czar government, can eliminate internal hidden danger, the sequela is not worth mentioning. 从这方面来说,双方也是各取所需。对稳定第一的沙皇政府来说,能够消除内部隐患,后遗症就不值得一提了。