On March 22 , 1872, UK and Russia signed «Britain , Russia Bilateral trade agreement», «Britain , Russia Grain Mortgage loan Agreement», «UK and Russia Finance Mutual trust Agreement»...... 1872年3月22日,英俄两国签订《英俄双边贸易协定》、《英俄粮食抵押贷款协议》、《英俄两国金融互信协定》…… Besides has not formed an alliance, in the Tsar government closes up to the English, has become the fact. 除了没有结盟外,沙皇政府经济上向英国人靠拢,已经成为了事实。 According to the treaty stipulated, the Russia person is pound- in golden system, the pound international currency hegemon position is established officially. 按照条约规定,俄国人已经是英镑-黄金体系中的一员,英镑国际货币霸主地位正式确立。 As the price, the English must in the next five years, provide 150 million pounds interest-free loan to the Tsar government, the Russia person repays the debt with the agricultural product completely. 作为代价,英国人要在未来五年内,向沙皇政府提供1.5亿英镑的无息贷款,俄国人全部用农产品偿还债务。 The discerning people know, the so-called loan is only a pretence under pretext. The loan that every year lends, is happen to equal to the agricultural product that the Russia person exits, essentially is a large amount of order contract. 明眼人都知道,所谓的贷款只是一个托词。每年发放的贷款,正好和俄国人出口的农产品等价,本质上就是一份巨额订货合同。 Nothing but these come from the Russia farm price to be lower, the London government remitted the import tariff. Through the inexpensive price, seized other to export the market of agricultural product country to Britain. 无非这些来自俄国的农产品价格更低,伦敦政府又免除了进口关税。通过低廉的价格,抢占了其他向英国出口农产品国家的市场。 Bearing the brunt is Austria benefits, as the world's largest agricultural product exporter, the loss that Austria benefits without doubt is biggest. The English import in agricultural products every year, 65% benefit from Austria, now this market almost can announce does not exist. 首当其冲的就是奥地利,作为世界第一大农产品出口国,奥地利的损失无疑是最大的。英国人每年进口农产品总量中,有百分之六十五都是来自奥地利,现在这一块市场几乎可以宣布不复存在。 „Free trade”, listens to be good, if took seriously that to be finished. The English slogan shouted earthly-shaking, related to the specific interest, is decisive losing to. “自由贸易”,听听就行了,要是当真那就要完蛋了。英国人口号喊得惊天动地,涉及到了具体利益,还是果断的丢到一边去。 If the Austria advantage wants to preserve in the market of Britain, now the farm price at least needs to cut in two at the waist, may survive in the competition. 如果奥地利想要保住在英国的市场,现在农产品价格至少要腰斩,才有可能在竞争中生存下来。 By the influence of British and Russian treaty, the international farm market was started the big diving from April. The capitalists keep in stock and undersell, accumulate the cash flow, for fear that froze to death in the following agricultural product cold winter. 受英俄条约的影响,国际农产品市场从四月份就开始大跳水。资本家们纷纷去库存、抛售,积累现金流,生怕在接下来的农产品寒冬中被冻死了。 As the lead of vortex center, Franz is not instead anxious. Although never expected that the English will act suddenly, but the international farm market was attacked, the Vienna government has the expectation early. 作为漩涡中心的主角,弗朗茨反而没有那么紧张。虽然没有想到英国人会突然出手,但是国际农产品市场受到冲击,维也纳政府还是早有预料的。 In the last annual workshop, the Vienna government made the grain production cut plan, is mainly centralized in the wheat, corn and legumes, these Russia person capacity big agricultural products. 在上一个年度工作会议上,维也纳政府就制定了粮食减产计划,主要是集中在小麦、玉米、豆类,这些俄国人产能较大的农产品。 The Vienna palace, in the agricultural special economic conference, Franz took up the music director stick, drew a curve on the world map. 维也纳宫,农业专项经济会议上,弗朗茨拿起了指挥棒,在世界地图上画了一条曲线。 „The Russia person is threatening, the English is adding fuel to the flames, the agricultural cold winter has approached. This to a Austria money pouch challenge, we must complete all measures as far as possible. Horss, first said the plan of Ministry of Agriculture.” “俄国人来势汹汹,英国人又在推波助澜,农业寒冬已经来临。这对奥地利是一项挑战,我们必须要尽可能的做好各项措施。霍尔斯,先说说农业部的计划。” Agriculture minister Horss stood from the seat, reorganized clothes, showed a serious and tense expression, obviously this topic is very serious. 农业大臣霍尔斯从座位上站了起来,整理了一下衣冠,摆出了一副严肃且紧张的表情,显然这个话题很沉重。 „ Two years ago starts, Ministry of Agriculture is the Russia agricultural product returns to the international market to prepare. “从两年前开始,农业部就在为俄国农产品重返国际市场做准备。 Therefore we took various kinds of measures, including the adjustment agricultural product industrial structure, reduces the principal grains output and cleaning up stock, develops the animal husbandry wait/etc. 为此我们采取了多种措施,包括调整农产品产业结构,削减主粮产量、清理库存,发展畜牧业等等。 These measures can only lower our losses, is actually not able to eliminate the issue from the source. The international farm market is so big, we not possible through reducing the capacity passed the crisis. 这些措施都只能减轻我们的损失,却无法从源头上根治问题。国际农产品市场就这么大,我们不可能通过削减产能度过危机。 The agricultural cold winter erupts, the agriculture of various countries does not feel better, does not need to make us pay. 农业寒冬爆发,各国的农业都不好受,没有必要让我们来买单。 This time agriculture price crashes, is mainly the Russia person causes, such being the case we push the boat along, making the crisis come more violent. 这次的农产品市场价格崩盘,主要是俄国人引起的,既然如此我们就顺水推舟,让危机来得更猛烈一些。 Ministry of Agriculture plans, will make the international grain price fall half in the next three years, shatters the agricultural production of various European countries. 农业部计划,未来三年内让国际粮食价格下跌一半,冲垮欧洲各国的农业生产。 Although the Russia agricultural production capacity is big, but they lack the risk tolerance. The financial resource of Tsar government are limited, not possible to provide the safeguard to the farmer. 俄国的农业生产产能虽然大,但是他们缺乏抗风险能力。沙皇政府的财力有限,不可能给农民提供保障。 Once the grain price bloody collapse, causes certainly the farmer bankruptcy tide to appear. If the luck is good, we can also cause heavy losses to the agricultural production system of Russia person. 一旦粮食价格血崩,必然导致农民破产潮出现。如果运气好的话,我们还可以重创俄国人的农业生产体系。 In order to make up for the loss of domestic farmer, Ministry of Agriculture suggested to suspend the agricultural taxes, the grain transaction and agricultural export tariff, as well as forbade the church to levy the assorted tax. Simultaneously establishes a grain minimum safeguard price and ensure the farmer will not lose money. ” 为了弥补国内农民的损失,农业部建议暂停征收农业税、粮食交易税、农产品出口关税,以及禁止教会征收什一税。同时设置一个粮食最低保障价,确保农民不会亏本。” Destroys various European countries agricultural production system, besides being worried to benefit as the third party in a dispute, what are more is the Vienna government does not want to draw this hatred. 摧毁欧洲各国农业生产体系,除了担心被人渔翁得利外,更多的还是维也纳政府不想拉这个仇恨。 Austria benefitted attained maximum share in the international grain export market, took away a biggest benefit in any case, why can handle the matter certainly? 奥地利都拿到了国际粮食出口市场上的最大份额,反正都拿走了最大的一块利益,何必要把事情做绝呢？ Now was easy to do, those who jump is the Russia person, propagandizes casually, can black pot to fling the pot Tsar government, is while convenient black a wave of English. Their reputations are in any case notorious, does not care about a many pulls hatred. 现在好办了,跳出来的是俄国人,随便宣传一下,就可以把黑锅甩锅沙皇政府,顺便黑一波英国人。反正他们的名声已经臭了,也不在乎多拉一笔仇恨。 The British and Russian agreement is the best evidence, they hit the 30% discount the grain export price directly, but also remitted the tariff. The two governments directly participated in the trade, destroyed the free trade system, this is the root that the food production of various European countries loses money together. 英俄协定就是最好的证据,他们把粮食出口价格直接打了七折,还免除了关税。两国政府直接参与了贸易,破坏了自由贸易体系,这就是欧洲各国的粮食生产一起赔钱的根源。 Proper low price dumping, no matter what who washes not white. Some people take the lead to reduce prices, following followed to be common, erupted the price war incautiously, killed the selling price is lower, that did not have the matter of means. 妥妥的低价倾销,任谁也洗不白。有人带头降价,后面的跟风着就不起眼了,一不小心爆发价格战,把售价杀得更低一些,那也是没有办法的事情。 UK and Russia attack Austria to benefit the grain export jointly, makes the domestic grain unsalable with it, might as well projects on the bottom the price. 英俄两国联手打击奥地利粮食出口,与其让国内粮食滞销,还不如把价格打到最低点。 Once the international grain price cut in two at the waist, does not know that the grain merchants in Britain can also fulfill the contract, this doing business at a loss business, has not liked. If by some chance the English breaks a promise, when the time comes had the good play to look. 一旦国际粮食价格被腰斩,不知道英国的粮食商人还会不会履行合约,这种赔本的买卖,可没有喜欢。万一英国人毁约,到时候就有好戏看了。 It seems like that is attacking various countries' food production system, in fact this is also destroying UK and Russia to close up. Nothing compared with the conflicts of interest, can disintegrate an alliance. 看似只是在冲击各国粮食生产体系,实际上这也是在破坏英俄两国靠拢。没有什么比利益冲突,更加能够瓦解一个联盟。 Britain , Russia are also not the ally. Closes up for the benefit merely, once the both sides conflicts of interest surpassed the benefit that forms a partnership to bring, thinks that does not go separate ways difficultly. 况且,英俄还不是盟友。仅仅只是为了利益才靠拢的,一旦双方利益冲突超过了合伙带来的利益,想不分道扬镳都难。 The people are lost in thought that starts words that digested Horss to speak a moment ago. 众人陷入了沉思中,开始消化霍尔斯刚才说的话。 „Grain price falls half, effect on home big, can cause the farmer to go bankrupt massively? Can involve the entire agricultural product system? How many funds needs to invest?” “粮食价格下跌一半,对国内的影响有多大,会不会导致农民大量破产？会不会涉及到整个农产品体系？需要投入多少资金？” What question is Prime Minister Felix, the agriculture is the pillar industry that Austria benefits, is beyond control the Vienna government not to attach great importance. If played to collapse the plate, the brought sequela was very serious. 发问的是费利克斯首相,农业一直都是奥地利的支柱产业,由不得维也纳政府不重视。万一要是玩儿崩了盘,带来的后遗症可是非常严重。 „ Prime minister, please relax. Our Ministry of Agriculture conducted the special appraisal, after the suspension agricultural taxes, the assorted tax, the grain transaction and grain export tariff, the international grain price cuts in two at the waist, brought the impact that to fall lowly to the home. “首相阁下,请放心。我们农业部进行了专项评估,在暂停征收农业税、什一税、粮食交易税和粮食出口关税后,国际粮食价格腰斩,给国内带来的冲击已经降到了最低。 Responded that in grain procurement market, the grain procurement price approximately will drop about 20%. Ministry of Agriculture will regulate, if the market volatility exceeds this scope, we will directly involve the purchase. 反应到粮食收购市场上,粮食收购价格大约会下降百分之二十左右。农业部会进行监管,如果市场动荡超过这个幅度,我们会直接介入收购。 Because regional grain production costs are different, cannot be generally spoken. In the natural condition good Wallachia plain, even meager profit. But perhaps some nature relatively poor provinces, must lose money. 由于各地的粮食生产成本不一样,不能够一概而论。在自然条件较好的瓦拉几亚平原,甚至还有微利。而一些自然条件较差的省份,恐怕就要赔钱了。 The situation that the farmers go bankrupt will definitely happen, with the development of time, the small peasant economy definitely will be destroyed, this primitive production model cost was too high, is unable to compete with the mechanized farms. 农民破产的情况肯定会发生,随着时代的发展,小农经济必然会被摧毁,这种原始的生产模式成本太高了,无法和机械化农场竞争。 The average per person land area of domestic farmer is high, usually everyone in the planter is many crops parallel, has certain risk tolerance, the large-scale farmer bankruptcy tide cannot benefit the eruption in Austria. 国内的农民的人均土地面积较高,通常大家在种植的时候都是多种农作物并行,具备一定抗风险能力,大规模农民破产潮不会在奥地利爆发。 Must complete this plan, the fund of needs investing is quite big, at least needs to invest 120 million aegises, simultaneously fiscal last every year must reduce approximately 21 million aegises, in the education needs the government to fill the holes of 15 million aegises again. ” 要完成这项计划,所需要投入的资金还是比较大,至少需要投入1.2亿神盾,同时财政上每年还要减少约2100万神盾,教育上需要政府再填补1500万神盾的窟窿。” The issue to finally, is money character. Once this plan launches, made up for the time of industrial and education to finish by the agriculture. 问题到了最后,还是一个钱字。这项计划一旦展开,靠农业弥补工业、教育的时代就结束了。 The agricultural tax revenue that in fact Austria benefits has been very low, so long as only 5, is in the minimum scale in the continental Europe agricultural product producer. 实际上奥地利的农业税收一直都很低,只要区区五,在欧洲大陆主要农产品生产国中处于最低档次。 The grain export tariff Gundam/reaches as high as 15, but processed grain export tax after the precision work, actually only then 3 ~ 5, according to the actual situation adjust, minimum time also has levied 1. 粮食出口关税高达15,不过精加工后的成品粮出口关税,却只有3~5,按照实际情况进行调节,最低的时候还征收过一。 By this policy influence, Austria was benefitted basically exits grain after the precision work, rarely has the direct export. 受这一政策影响,奥地利基本上都是出口精加工后的粮食,很少有直接出口的。 Other related tax revenue also very low, grain transaction 5, the vehicles transit duty exempts directly, various additional taxes almost do not have. 别的相关税收也非常的低,粮食交易税五,车船运输税直接免征,各种附加税几乎没有。 Even so, these tax revenues in Austria benefitted in the financial revenue also to be in the important position, in recent years dropped, now was still a big number. 即便是如此,这些税收在奥地利财政收入中也占据了重要地位,最近几年有所下降,现在仍然是一个不小的数字。 Franz fell into calculated, invested the operation fund ease in doing of 120 million aegises, invests to have one time, was really not good can also the bank loan, or was the issue debentures, this money could not have baffled Austria to benefit. 弗朗茨陷入了盘算中,投入1.2亿神盾的运作资金这个好办,一次性投资挤挤就会有的,实在不行还可以银行贷款,或者是发行债券,这点儿钱已经难不倒奥地利。 What troubled is the financial revenue reduces, the education expenditure increases, this 36 million aegises are not disposable, but lost forever. 麻烦的是财政收入减少,教育支出增加,这个3600万神盾可不是一次性的,而是永远失去了。 „Temporarily exempts”, in fact this temporarily is permanent, after the dividend period in agriculture ended, this/should industrial subsidy agriculture. “暂时免征”,实际上这个暂时就是永久,农业上的红利期结束后,就该工业补贴农业了。 This means that the financial revenue that Austria benefits shrinks 8.3% directly, the expenditure increases 6.1. 这意味着,奥地利的财政收入直接缩水百分之8.3,财政支出又增6.1。 Listened to the plan of Ministry of Agriculture, First Lord of the Treasury Carl to deeply frown, after silent a while, put down the drinking glass in hand. 听了农业部的计划,财政大臣卡尔眉头紧锁,沉默了一会儿后,放下了手中的水杯。 „ Was too radical, must beat various European countries agricultural production system, does not need to do such extreme. So long as projected on the situation that the international grain price the farmers had no benefits to be gained enough, does not absolutely need to reach one's goal instantly. “太激进了,要击垮欧洲各国农业生产体系,也没有必要搞这么极端。只要把国际粮食价格打到各国农民无利可图的地步就够了,根本就没有必要一步到位。 In the agricultural production domain, we had the advantage, the grain production cost in continental Europe is lowest. We have the complete industrial supporting system, can attain more profits. 在农业生产领域,我们占据了优势,粮食生产成本在欧洲大陆是最低的。我们还有完整的产业配套体系,可以拿到更多的利润。 The European countries farmers started to lose money, in fact the domestic farmer still also had certain profit, so long as we towed, they will unable to support. 欧洲各国农民都开始赔钱了,实际上国内的农民依然还有一定的利润,只要我们拖下去,他们就会撑不住。 Infers from the economics, the Russia person likely first cannot support. Only if the Tsar government takes out money to subsidize the agriculture, otherwise the high cost, will make the Russia agricultural product lose the market competitiveness. 从经济学上推断,俄国人很可能最先撑不住的。除非沙皇政府掏钱补贴农业,要不然高昂的成本,就会让俄国的农产品丧失市场竞争力。 So long as grasped this, we do not need to pay the too big price. Now needs to reduce the grain export tariff, to avoid the agricultural tax, can bear the first wave of impact. 只要把握住了这个度,我们根本就不需要付出太大的代价。现在只是需要降低粮食出口关税、免除农业税,就可以承受住第一波冲击。 The grain of Russia person has not exported Britain, now first lets out our grain reserves, impacts the international market to project on British and Russian knockdown price the price, then has a look at the English to honor an agreement. 俄国人的粮食还没有出口到英国,现在把我们储备粮先放出去,冲击国际市场把价格打到英俄成交价格一下,再看看英国人会不会履约。 If not honor an agreement, the Russia person must but actually big mildew. Does not know that the wallet of Tsar government can withstand, the grain of piling up cannot sell, the consequence is very serious. ” 如果不履约的话,俄国人就要倒大霉了。不知道沙皇政府的钱包能不能够承受,堆积如山的粮食卖不出去,后果可是非常严重的。” Has to the professional be enough ruthless, this beats is not the grain price, but is the finance of Tsar government. If the grain is large-scale, Alexander II must have bad luck. 不得不专业人士就是够狠,这击垮的可不是粮食价格,而是沙皇政府的财政。一旦出现粮食大规模滞销,亚历山大二世就要倒霉了。 Without means that in farmer hand on the remaining grain. Either the government levies grain taxes directly, is rotten in the warehouse ; Either can only be exempted from tax. 没有办法,农民手中就剩下粮食了。要么政府直接征粮,然后烂在仓库里;要么就只能免税。 Once the market were filled, even again inexpensive, still no one dares to take over. Each economy erupts, has the capitalists the milk toward the river but in actually, to avoid the price collapse. 一旦市场被充满了,就算是再廉价,也没有人敢接手。每一次经济爆发,就有资本家们把牛奶往河里倒,就是为了避免价格崩溃。 Now Carl's plan, completes before the British and Russian transaction, first step grain price that beats Britain. 现在卡尔的计划,就是在英俄交易完成前,先一步击垮英国的粮食价格。 The international grain price is naturally impossible to escape by luck, Austria will benefit will also lose seriously. So long as the English breaks a contract, will then lose the serious Russia person definitely not to give up, perhaps will unable to do to the London government, but will withdraw from pound- golden system will be inevitable. 国际粮食价格自然不可能幸免,奥地利也会损失惨重。但只要英国人违约,那么损失惨重的俄国人肯定不会善罢甘休,或许奈何不了伦敦政府,可是退出英镑-黄金体系是必然的。 When the time comes, Tsar government that feared that does not want , can only brace oneself to join aegis- golden system. Loss in the grain market, can fish in the money market. 到时候,沙皇政府那怕是再不愿意,也只能硬着头皮加入神盾-黄金体系。粮食市场上的损失,在金融市场中又可以捞回来。 Horss wrinkle brow, questioned: „If the English did fulfill the contract? Benefit that the currency hegemony brings, is not tiny bit, they do not have the truth to give up.” 霍尔斯皱纹眉头,质疑道:“要是英国人履行了合约呢？货币霸权所带来的利益,可不是一星半点儿,他们没有道理这么放弃。” Carl smiles with sincerity: „ That nothing but is this year all grain exporters, crossed together hard times. Even if the international grain price hits a 30% discount, to exporting Austria of precision work grain benefits the impact is not big. 卡尔坦然一笑:“那无非是今年所有粮食出口国,一起过苦日子了。就算是国际粮食价格打个七折,对出口精加工粮食的奥地利冲击也没有那么大。 Do not forget, the food precision work industry also more than ten point profits, these enterprises can also share partial loss. 不要忘了,食品精加工产业本身还有十几个点利润,这些企业也可以分摊一部分损失。 Generally speaking, the unprocessed food grains price falls 70%, the domestic agricultural production can achieve to suffer no loss of capital. This enough, I have not thought that the current grain export price, the Russia farmer can make money. 总体上来说,原粮价格下跌百分之七十,国内的农业生产还是可以做到保本。这已经够了,我不认为目前的粮食出口价格,俄国农民能够赚钱。 The price that the government needs to pay is only some grain reserves, and financial revenue reduces 800 ~ 10 million aegises. 政府需要付出的代价只是一部分储备粮,以及财政收入削减800~1000万神盾。 If attacks various European countries agricultural system directly, takes the rap with the Russia person can only the flickering average person, the politicians are clear. 要是直接冲击欧洲各国农业体系,用俄国人背黑锅只能忽悠普通人,政客们还是一清二楚的。 If they take the countermeasure, raises the grain import tariff artificially, inexpensive grain besides increasing their financial revenues, what to do but can also? ” 如果他们采取反制措施,人为提高粮食进口关税,廉价粮除了增加他们的财政收入外,还能怎么办？” This is the reality, throws off the table in the face of the benefit is the common matter. In order to protect its agriculture, adopting trade barrier that is normal. 这是现实,在利益面前掀翻桌子是常有的事情。为了保护本国农业,采取贸易壁垒那是正常的。