St. Petersburg, since Crown Prince Aleksandrowicz tour of failure Austria advantage, the Tsar government had realized suddenly Austria Union came to the end. 圣彼得堡,自从亚历山德罗维奇皇储奥地利之行失败后,沙皇政府已经意识到了俄奥同盟走到了尽头。 The deep freezing, Rome was not built in a day. With the lapse of time, between suddenly Austria both countries contradictory also accumulated day after day. 冰冻三尺,非一日之寒。随着时间的推移,俄奥两国之间矛盾也日渐积累了起来。 Previously, the two governments depended upon the treaty of alliance to depress the unharmonious sound, now cannot suppress. 此前,两国政府依靠盟约压下了不和谐的声音,现在已经压不住了。 suddenly Austria relations succeed to the throne from Alexander II start, changed. The personal inclination of monarchy country Emperor, the influence on the politics cannot be underestimated. 俄奥关系从亚历山大二世继位开始,就发生了改变。君主制国家皇帝的个人倾向,对政治的影响力不容小觑。 After the Prussia war breaks out, the Austria advantage has not fully supported the Russia person, besides benefit, what are more is expressing the disaffection to the Tsar government. 普俄战争爆发后,奥地利没有全力支持俄国人,除了利益外,更多的还是在对沙皇政府表示不满。 No great nation is willing to be others little brothers, particularly after the both sides relative strength changes . suddenly Austria two countries initial gambling, in fact is the struggle of alliance leading power. 没有哪个大国甘愿做人家的小弟,尤其是双方实力对比发生变化后。俄奥两国最初的博弈,实际上就是联盟主导权之争。 Approach of Alexander II right, but the bureaucrats of Tsar government do not make every effort to succeed, lost the Prussia war, Russian Empire henceforth from rise to fall, lost the alliance leading power. 亚历山大二世的做法没错,只是沙皇政府的官僚不争气,输掉了普俄战争,俄罗斯帝国从此由盛转衰,丧失了联盟主导权。 If the Tsar government is willing to admit defeat, then the matter also ended, suddenly Austria Union is still European most important political forces group. 如果沙皇政府肯认输的话,那么事情也就结束了,俄奥同盟依然是欧洲最重要的政治势力团体。 Obviously this is not possible, the arrogance of Russian Empire is not a weaponry can hit not to have. Opens the long Russian Empire history, compared with the present worse time passed, does Tsar possibly really give up the European hegemony? 显然这是不可能的,俄罗斯帝国的傲气可不是一仗就能够打没的。翻开漫长的俄罗斯帝国史,比现在更糟糕的时候都度过去了,沙皇怎么可能真的放弃欧陆霸权呢？ Franz is not big to the European hegemony interest, the geographical position that but Austria benefits has decided that cannot avoid in the struggle of European hegemony. 弗朗茨对欧陆霸权兴趣不大,但奥地利的地理位置已经决定了,在欧陆霸权之争中根本就避不开。 The mass that Austria benefits is putting on there, even if said oneself have no interest, no one dares to believe. Such being the case, that can only brace oneself on. Now law Austria both countries carve up the European hegemony together, is under this background appears. 奥地利的体量在那里放着,就算是说自己没兴趣,都没有人敢信。既然如此,那就只能硬着头皮上。现在法奥两国共同瓜分欧陆霸权,就是这种背景下出现的。 To the Tsar government, suddenly Austria Union is shattered truly is an attack, but the two countries treaty of alliance also several years expire, in a short time do not have the threat. 对沙皇政府来说,俄奥同盟破灭确实是一个打击,但两国盟约还有几年时间才到期,短期内不存在威胁。 Now what is most important was must find the donor who is willing to disburse money promptly, otherwise the reform of Alexander II could not be conducted. 现在最重要的是及时要找到一个肯出钱的金主,不然亚历山大二世的改革就进行不下去了。 The most ideal choice is Austria benefits certainly, the Tsar government can tie up both countries using the foreign loan is closer. Now the Vienna government dares to give up suddenly Austria Union, that is because they owe insufficiently many. 最理想的选择当然是奥地利,沙皇政府可以利用外债把两国绑的更紧密一些。现在维也纳政府敢放弃俄奥同盟,那是因为他们欠得不够多。 If the Tsar government owes the debt that Austria benefits, is not the present 183 million aegises, but is 1.83 billion aegises, it is estimated that again how, the Vienna government also only then dies to support. 如果沙皇政府欠奥地利的债务,不是现在1.83亿神盾,而是18.3亿神盾,估计再怎么样,维也纳政府也只有死撑着。 According to the current situation, after suddenly Austria Union expires, the debt that the Tsar government owes must 7788. 按照目前情况,等俄奥同盟到期后,沙皇政府欠下的债务也还得七七八八了。 This is not Alexander II can delay, Austria altruistic pulls out from the Russian tariff, every year has 12 million aegises. 这不是亚历山大二世能够拖延的,奥地利人只是从俄罗斯关税中抽成,每年都有一千两百万神盾。 The Tsar government decides high the tariff, this repayments speed is faster. In addition also some mineral resource material objects redeem, Russia can repay to deal with over 90% of debt every year. 沙皇政府把关税定得越高,这个还款速度就越快。加上还有一些矿产资源实物抵偿,俄罗斯每年还是能够偿还应付债务的百分之九十以上。 The mortgage loan, is beyond control Alexander II to repudiate a debt. Otherwise suddenly Austria both countries will get angry immediately, when the time comes Austria benefits a two countries trade pass pass/test, Russia must lead to the economic crisis immediately. 抵押贷款,由不得亚历山大二世赖账。要不然俄奥两国立即就会翻脸,到时候奥地利把两国贸易通道一关,俄罗斯马上就要爆发经济危机。 Without the means that this is the geographical position decides. If the Austria advantage stopped up the gate, the Russian over 70% exits were finished. 没有办法,这是地理位置决定的。要是奥地利堵了门,俄罗斯百分之七十以上的出口都完蛋了。 The grain of Ukrainian area does not walk from Dardanelles, cannot walk the land land transport to arrive in St. Petersburg, then re-shipment exit|to speak? 乌克兰地区的粮食不从达达尼尔海峡走,总不能走陆路运到圣彼得堡,然后再装船出口吧？ According to the current international situation, if really suddenly Austria gets angry, Russian Empire must be blocked completely. Austria benefits in the back agitates, supports two armored vessels, Prussia dares to stop up Baltic Sea. 按照目前的国际局势,真要是俄奥翻了脸,俄罗斯帝国就要被完全封锁了。奥地利在背后鼓动一下,赞助两艘铁甲舰,普鲁士就敢堵住波罗地海。 Now is the armored vessel time, Russia navy that pile of broken ships, can tear down, when fuel. Majority is over 20 years of wooden warship that does not have the renewal, but how also wants? 现在已经是铁甲舰时代了,俄罗斯海军那一堆破船,都可以拆掉当柴火了。大部分都是超过二十年没有更新换代的木制军舰,还想要怎么样？ It is not Alexander II does not take seriously the navy, does not know that the warship wants the renewal, is really in the government pocket does not have money. The Crimean War eruption starts, the finance of Tsar government has not felt better. 不是亚历山大二世不重视海军,不知道军舰要更新换代,实在是政府兜里没钱。克里米亚战争爆发开始,沙皇政府的财政就从来没有好过。 Austria closes up Alexander II is not worried, although the Prussia kingdom has given up unifying the strategy of German area, but Austria benefits did not have, ridge that this cannot step together. 普奥靠拢亚历山大二世不担心,虽然普鲁士王国已经放弃统一德意志地区的战略,可是奥地利还没有,这就是一道迈不过去的坎儿。 Asking that Alexander II relates: „How with the English to discuss, are they willing to provide the loan to us?” 亚历山大二世关系的问道:“和英国人谈得怎么样了,他们肯不肯向我们提供贷款？” This loan is unusual, Russia person with grain repayment. If the English agrees to lend this loan, the Tsar government must transport 1.2 million tons wheat to England every year, 400,000 tons corn, 300,000 tons barley...... 这次贷款非同一般,俄国人是拿粮食偿还的。如果英国人同意发放这笔贷款,沙皇政府每年都要向英格兰输送一百二十万吨小麦、四十万吨玉米、三十万吨大麦…… It seems like the loan, in fact might as well said that is the grain export. But in the international farm market, the competitiveness of Russia agricultural product is really low. 看似是贷款,实际上还不如说是粮食出口。只不过在国际农产品市场上,俄国农产品的竞争力实在是太低。 If directly conducts low price dumping, then hit the international grain price, the planter cost relatively soaring Russia agricultural product will become will have no benefits to be gained. 如果直接进行低价倾销,那么把把国际粮食价格打了下去,种植成本相对高昂俄国农产品就会变得无利可图。 In order to avoid the worst situation happened, the Russia economists proposed loan bundle sale, to be lower than the price of international market, contracts a grain import of country. 为了避免最糟糕的情况发生,俄国经济学家们提出了贷款捆绑销售,以低于国际市场的价格,承包一个国家的粮食进口。 The reduced profit, worked as the property cost of loan. The total ratio and competitor fight the price war, finally does business at a loss to gain calls strongly. 减少的利润,就当贷款的财物成本了。总比和竞争对手打价格战,最后赔本赚吆喝强。 „Your majesty, the English requests loan amount reduction half, and must redeem the price to drop five points the grain one, is equivalent to the present international grain export price 70.” “陛下,英国人要求贷款数额减少一半,并且还要把粮食抵偿价格下降五分一,相当于现在国际粮食出口价格的70。” The reply of foreign minister Clarence Ivanov, lets the Alexander II complexion big change, the grain export is not the sudden and huge profits industry, if hits the 30% discount unable to receive the cost. 外交大臣克拉伦斯-伊万诺夫的回答,让亚历山大二世脸色大变,粮食出口可不是什么暴利产业,要是打七折连成本都收不回来。 Asking that Alexander II does not lose heart: „If we comply to join the free trade system, lets ruble and pound hook?” 亚历山大二世不死心的问道:“如果我们答应加入自由贸易体系,让卢布和英镑挂钩呢？” Clarence Ivanov replied: „ If so, the loan does not have the issue, but the grain price still has not resulted in discussed. 克拉伦斯-伊万诺夫回答道:“如果是这样的话,贷款没有问题,不过粮食价格依然没得谈。 The grain merchants in Britain think that the current international grain price is too high, in the near future will fall significantly, persists in only accepting at present the 30% discount of market price. ” 英国的粮食商人认为目前的国际粮食价格太高,近期会大幅度下跌,坚持只接受目前市价的七折。” If according to the current current price on market, Russia plans to transport into the agricultural product total value of Britain to reach as high as 38 million pounds, if hits a 30% discount, that be only 26.6 million pounds, the middle price difference Gundam/reaches as high as 11.4 million pounds. 如果按照目前的市场价,俄罗斯计划输送入英国的农产品总价值高达3800万英镑,要是打个七折,那就只有2660万英镑,中间的差价高达1140万英镑。 Aleksandrowicz complexion is pale was saying: „ English this is blackmailing, such condition we cannot accept absolutely! 亚历山德罗维奇脸色铁青着说道:“英国人这是在讹诈,这样的条件我们绝对不能够接受！ According to the price of market price 30% discount, we have to make a profit through the grain export, instead will compensate one. 按照市价七折的价格,我们不得不能够通过粮食出口获利,反而会赔上一笔。 Only if further undercuts the grain procurement price, was the domestic grain price is very low, pressed the people to farm again downward is losing money. ” 除非进一步压低粮食收购价格,可是国内的粮食价格已经很低了,再往下压民众们种地就是在赔钱了。” The grain is the big synthesis commodity, the transportation is a major problem. The transportation of Russian Empire is inconvenient, the transportation is high-cost, these costs must consider. 粮食是大综商品,运输一直都是一个大问题。俄罗斯帝国的交通不便,运输成本高昂,这些成本必须要考虑进去。 Usually some costs fell finally on farmer who produced the grain, if now according to the market price 30% discount exit|to speak, falls to the farmer on again, they can only go bankrupt. 通常这部分成本最后都落到了生产粮食的农民头上,现在要是按照市价七折出口,再落到农民头上,他们就只能破产了。 But peasant class Tsar biggest support group, this is the cornerstone of rule, if compelled to go bankrupt them, the rule of Tsar government was not steady. 农民阶级可是沙皇最大拥护集团,这是统治的基石,要是把他们都逼破产了,沙皇政府的统治也就不稳了。 Alexander II sighs, shakes the head saying: „ International grain price plummet has become the foregone conclusion wrong, the judgment of English not. 亚历山大二世叹了一口气,摇了摇头说:“国际粮食价格暴跌已经成为了定局,英国人的判断没有错。 The international market is so big, grain yield that we increase so many, once put the market, the international grain price can the bloody collapse. 国际市场就那么大,我们增加的粮食产量又那么多,一旦放到了市场,国际粮食价格就会血崩。 Spoke the sentence words not of pleasant to hear, if the Russian unnecessary grain can transport/fortune completely, even if other grain exporter stops exporting, Europe will not present the grain to be hurried. ” 说句不好听的话,如果俄罗斯多余的粮食能够全部运出去,就算是别的粮食出口国都停止出口,欧洲都不会出现粮慌。” This is the sequela of greatly opening up wasteland, although solved the domestic land question, but the grain overcapacity also becomes a serious social problem. 这是大开荒的后遗症,尽管解决了国内的土地问题,但是粮食产能过剩也成为了一个严重的社会问题。 What tragedy is, just obtained the farmer output enthusiasm of land to surge upward, Russia grain yield also in unceasing increasing. 更悲剧的是,刚刚得到土地的农民产量积极性高涨,俄国的粮食产量还在不断攀升中。 With falling of grain price, the Russia grain wine-making business starts vigorously to develop. However this type of fine liquor, the general public cannot spend, market very limited. To depend upon the wine-making business consumption surplus grain capacity, that is the not possible matter. 随着粮食价格的下跌,俄国粮食酿酒业都开始蓬勃发展。但是这种高档酒,普通民众根本就消费不起,市场非常的有限。想要依靠酿酒业消耗过剩的粮食产能,那是不可能的事情。 Aleksandrowicz thinks saying: „ That guidance farmer replants the industrial crop, in the market lacks anything, we plant anything. 亚历山德罗维奇想了想说:“那就引导农民改种经济作物,市场上缺什么,我们就种植什么。 If not cut the domestic grain yield, the international grain market will be supported to explode sooner or later. As far as I know, the Vienna government has intended to eliminate the agricultural tax. 要是不削减国内的粮食产量,国际粮食市场迟早会被撑爆。据我所知,维也纳政府已经有意取消农业税了。 Their grain production cost lowered compared with us, complete necessary industrial machining chain, risk tolerance definitely compared with us. If erupted the price war, the home fears to present over a million bankrupt people every year. ” 他们的粮食生产成本本来就比我们低,还有完整的配套产业加工链,抗风险能力肯定比我们强。要是爆发了价格战,国内恐怕每年都会出现上百万的破产民众。” Alexander II nods, he had not suspected that Aleksandrowicz exaggerates. This is the fact, besides the Ukrainian area, other Russian land grain production cost relatively is high. 亚历山大二世点了点头,他没有怀疑亚历山德罗维奇夸大其词。这本来就是事实,除了乌克兰地区外,俄罗斯别的土地粮食生产成本都相对偏高。 Even Ukrainian area, because develops insufficient, here agricultural production technology is backward. Obviously is a black soil, finally the grain yield per mu still could not compare Austria to benefit. 即便是乌克兰地区,因为开发利用不足,这里的农业生产技术落后。明明是黑土地,结果粮食亩产量仍然比不上奥地利。 This is the sequela that the market is insufficient, no matter how said that the continental Europe total population less than 300 million, the grain that various countries produced met the most need. 这是市场不足的后遗症,不管怎么说欧洲大陆总人口都不足三亿,各国本身生产出来的粮食就满足了大半需求。 To expand the grain export market, the only means first use the low-cost grain impact market, beats the agricultural production of various countries. 想要扩大粮食出口市场,唯一的办法就是先用低价粮冲击市场,击垮各国的农业生产。 Alexander II originally plans, the agriculture of various countries so long as shattering, then Russia controlled the life of continental Europe. 亚历山大二世最初就是这么计划的,只要冲垮的各国的农业,那么俄罗斯就掌握了欧洲大陆的命脉。 The plan is good to plan, the only issue is the Tsar government is underfinanced. The strength of competitor is also too superior, plays low price dumping, while beating various countries' agriculture, may beat the Russia agriculture. 计划是好计划,唯一的问题是沙皇政府财力不足。竞争对手的实力又太雄厚,玩儿低价倾销,在击垮各国农业的同时,也有可能击垮俄国农业。 In fact not only Alexander II has this plan, Franz has also made similar plan, but gave up finally. 实际上不光亚历山大二世有这个计划,弗朗茨也制定过类似的计划,只不过最后还是放弃了。 Without the means that the present is the colonizing time, which big powers lack together the grain production place? The local grain yield is insufficient, hasn't been able the colony to try to find the solution? 没有办法,现在是殖民时代,哪个列强缺一块产粮地？本土粮食产量不足,还不能殖民地想办法么？ Cannot achieve the monopoly, playing the low price dumps that is the wallet cannot pass. Now the agriculture makes money, definitely does not need to do the profit not to have. 做不到垄断,玩儿低价倾销那就是和钱包过不去。现在农业还是赚钱的,完全没有必要搞得利润全无。 The Alexander II mood somewhat lowly, said sincerely: „ Reduces the grain capacity, replants the industrial crop to, but this is not in one single day can complete. The grain cultivation is relatively simple, the farmers planted be used. 亚历山大二世心情有些低落,语重心长的说:“削减粮食产能,改种经济作物是必须的,只不过这不是一朝一夕就能够完成的。粮食种植相对简单,农民们都种植习惯了。 To change this traditional planter pattern, we must learn from the Austria advantage. Aleksandrowicz, you have been to Austria to benefit, should be clear about their agriculture developed. The disparity where, did you discover? ” 想要改变这种传统种植模式,我们必须要向奥地利学习。亚历山德罗维奇,你也到过奥地利,应该清楚他们的农业有多发达。差距在什么地方,你发现了么？” Aleksandrowicz is lost in thought that he has not stayed in the Austria advantage too for a long time, understood that also limits in Vienna, most of the time passes the newspaper. 亚历山德罗维奇陷入了沉思中,他没有在奥地利停留太长时间,了解也只是局限在维也纳,大多数时候还是通过报纸。 „Should have the climate, transportation and agricultural technology, necessary processing industry. The disparity on climate, we do not have the means to make up, the following three points can also pursue slowly.” “应该有气候、交通、农业技术,还有配套的加工产业。气候上的差距,我们没有办法弥补,后面三点还可以慢慢追上去。” Alexander II nods saying: „ Such being the case, then this owed we to eat. 亚历山大二世点了点头说:“既然如此,那么这个亏我们就吃定了。 If the disagreement/not with English reaches the agreement now, perhaps crosses on after several months of fall harvest again, our grain cannot sell the 30% discount of present market price, the price also ratio pounds again lowly in the hand strong. 如果现在不和英国人达成协议,恐怕再过上几个月秋收过后,我们的粮食连现在市价的七折都卖不到,价格再低也比砸在手里强。 If no a large area of natural disaster, when our food harvests enter the international market, this year is doomed is an agricultural cold winter, when the time comes will have a lot of agricultural products to be unsalable. 如果不发生大面积的自然灾害,等我们的粮食丰收进入国际市场,今年就注定是一个农业寒冬,到时候会有大量的农产品滞销。 Must lose money when the time comes in any case, might as well first take the loan. When the time comes we can also reduce the agricultural tax revenue, reduces the loss of farmer. 反正到时候都要赔钱,不如先把贷款拿到手。到时候我们还可以减免农业税收,减少农民的损失。 Only the railroad laid, solved the domestic traffic problem, Russian Empire has the future, now first makes the English self-satisfied! 只有铁路修通了,解决了国内的交通问题,俄罗斯帝国才有未来,现在就先让英国人得意吧！ If to not attack Austria benefits, perhaps this condition English will not open. They do not lack this batch of inexpensive grains, the grain processing industry of Britain is not developed. 如果不是为了打击奥地利,或许这个条件英国人都不会开。他们可不缺这一批廉价粮,英国的粮食加工产业也不怎么发达。 If the London government does not give the preferential policy, these grain merchants will not invest the venture in agroindustry, after all this domain Austria benefits is hegemon, they have no advantage. ” 如果伦敦政府不给优惠政策,这些粮食商人可不会投资农产品加工业,毕竟这个领域奥地利才是霸主,他们没有任何优势。” ...... ……