In this world the smart person is many, after the Habsburg family gives up the Polish throne competing, several European king specialized households announce give up. 这个世界上聪明人还是很多的,在哈布斯堡家族放弃波兰王位争夺后,又有几个欧洲国王专业户宣布放弃。 These also include the Bonaparte family, Napoleon III gives up Polish this huge pit wisely. Although he wants to support Poland to keep in balance Austria to benefit, Napoleon III still does not favor Poland to accomplish. 这其中也包括波拿巴家族,拿破仑三世非常明智的放弃波兰这个巨坑。虽然他想要扶持波兰制衡奥地利,拿破仑三世依然不看好波兰能够成事。 Does this inside have the Pole unable to have a liking for their factors, does not know. This age, the Bonaparte family erupts the household in any case, in the normal condition has not become the qualifications of candidate. 这里面有没有波兰人看不上他们的因素,就不知道了。反正这个年代,波拿巴家族还是爆发户,正常情况下是没有成为候选人的资格。 If by some chance were taken the alternative list by the Pole, to be awkward? By the big doing dead ability, does this matter also to have nothing well strange. 万一被波兰人拿下了备选名单,岂不是尴尬？以大波波的作死能力,干出这种事情也没有什么好奇怪的。 Another powerful competitor elder brother family also withdrew, the bad strategic location of Poland, making them not shrink back at the sight. 另一强力竞争对手哥达家族也退出了,波兰的糟糕战略位置,让他们没有望而却步。 European so-called electing king made/system, is always gambling of all influence, the politics and diplomatic means must have. Also must look at the leading character to want, the person who does not want to be the king are also many. 欧洲所谓的选王制,从来都是各方势力的博弈,政治、外交手段都少不了。还要看主人公愿不愿意,不想当国王的人也不少。 Currently the European major big powers have the supporter, making the situation more chaotic. 现在欧洲各大列强都有支持者,让局势变得更加混乱。 Prussia supports William I to hold a concurrent post of Polish king, after being opposed by law Austria two countries, support royal family collateral branch Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen family Carroll is Polish king, was opposed by law Austria ; 普鲁士支持威廉一世兼任波兰国王,遭到了法奥两国的反对后,又支持王室旁支霍亨索伦-西格马林根家族卡罗尔担任波兰国王,还是遭到了法奥的反对; Spain and Austria advantage supports Bourbon the family to become Polish king, however encountered the vigorous opposition of France and Prussia ; 西班牙和奥地利支持波旁家族成为波兰国王,然而遭到了法国和普鲁士的强烈反对; The Russia person supports Danish Christian IX's son George to become Polish king, encountered the vigorous opposition of Prussia kingdom ; 俄国人支持丹麦克里斯蒂安九世的儿子乔治出任波兰国王,遭到了普鲁士王国的强烈反对; ...... …… What is worth mentioning is Austria benefits also supports George to hold the post of the Kingdom of Poland, this is not contradictory, no one stipulated that can only support a candidate. 值得一提的是奥地利也支持乔治担任波兰王国,这不矛盾,没有谁规定就只能支持一名候选人。 Makes trouble in any case to Prussia, so long as is not William I, who is Polish king to be the same to Franz. 反正都是给普鲁士制造麻烦,只要不是威廉一世,谁当波兰国王对弗朗茨来说都一样。 Prussia and Poland get up, is not 11 = 2, in fact they completed the resource integration, is a European power. 普鲁士和波兰加起来,可不是11=2,实际上他们完成了资源整合,就是一个欧洲大国。 For the north line security, Franz naturally cannot make them easily merge. To the Austria advantage, resisted Russian Empire jointly enough, making them merge asks for trouble. 为了北线安全,弗朗茨自然不会让他们轻易合并。对奥地利来说,普波联手对抗俄罗斯帝国就够了,让他们合并就是自讨苦吃。 Does not dare to annex Austria-Hungary like original space and time Germany, Franz does not dare to annex federation, that contraption will really explode. 如同原时空德国不敢兼并奥匈,弗朗茨也不敢兼并普波联邦,那玩意儿真的会爆炸。 The big powers standpoint is various, Polish Parliament was worried, does not know completely should elect anyone. 列强的立场各不相同,波兰议会就苦恼了,完全不知道该选谁。 The bitter Polish people of parliament could not realize that they are exercising the freedom now, lifts up high the sign, to shout the slogan, parades on the avenue, surrounded the parliament building while convenient. 议会的苦波兰人民是体会不到的,现在他们正在行使自由权利,高举着牌子、喊着口号,在大街上游行,顺便包围了议会大厦。 If some people listen carefully, but can also hear: George, William and Carroll...... 如果有人仔细听的话,还可以听到:“乔治”、“威廉”、“卡罗尔”…… Right, cared people that Polish king belongs, also made own sound. 没错,关心波兰国王归属的民众们,也发出了自己的声音。 In some people are the sincerity , many is draws to make up the number, needed to judge. 这里面有多少人是真心的,又有多少是拉过来凑数的,就需要自己判断了。 New Polish Parliament, has not seen this magnificent scene. Formerly was they organizes the manpower to shout that outside, is shouted the slogan the geomancy rotating disk to them now in turn. 新生的波兰议会,从来没有见过这种大场面。从前都是他们组织人手在外面喊的,现在风水轮流转轮到他们被喊口号了。 Tsar is not affable, in the past they shouted that the slogan is with trepidation, absolutely outside does not have these people so rampant, gathers round the parliament to compel them to decide directly. 沙皇不好惹,当年他们喊口号可是提心吊胆,完全没有外头那些人这么嚣张,直接围着议会逼他们做决策。 „Sends people to ask, actually they do want to do? Damn, how I also heard Napoleon, is it possible that do they take a deceased person to be Polish king?” “派人出去问问,他们究竟要干什么？见鬼,我怎么还听到了拿破仑,莫非他们要一个死人来做波兰国王？” The speaker Alex violent anger said, he had soon been wild with rage. If the king is so easy to elect, why they also do want to worry? 议长亚历克斯暴怒道,他已经快要被气疯了。如果国王那么容易选出来,他们何必还要发愁呢？ Shares hardships easily, the riches and honor are altogether difficult. 共患难易,共富贵难。 Fights to win the state power time, there is a common enemy Russia person, everyone can also coordinate intimately. Now Poland was independent, each parties start to fight for power and profit. 打江山的时候,有共同的敌人俄国人,大家还可以亲密配合。现在波兰独立了,各个党派就开始争权夺利。 The demonstrators of outside protest, are in the right struggle the losers organization. The goal is self-evident, through supporting the political speculation of king turns over/stands up. 外面抗议的示威人群,就是权利斗争中失败者们组织的。目的不言而喻,就是通过支持国王的政治投机翻身。 In fact, the strength of government CPC and faction is also big. But everyone feared that various European countries interfere, does not dare to adopt the republican system. 实际上,政府中共和派的力量也不小。只不过大家怕欧洲各国干涉,不敢采取共和制。 Polish Parliament is unable to make the decision, the republican faction also left vigorously. They disturb in the vote, delay the parliamentary decision time, prepares first to turn into the republican system in fact. 波兰议会迟迟无法做出决定,共和派也是出了大力的。他们在表决中捣乱,拖延议会决策时间,准备先变成实质上的共和制。 So long as the government apparatus stabilized, created the established facts. In the future will select the king, is only one rubber chapter. 只要政府机构稳定了下来,造成了既定事实。未来就是选出了国王,也只是一个橡皮章。 No one thinks that head many shackles, the provisional government high level to be built on stilts the king tries hard. Now outside demonstration, can say that broke the plans of many. 没有人想自己头上多一个枷锁,临时政府高层都在为架空国王而努力。现在外面的游行示威,可以说打破了很多人的计划。 ...... …… On November 11 , 1867, world-shaking Poland „pair 11” massacre erupted. Crowd of demonstration under guidance of having a mind, situation quick quick out-of-control, impacted the parliamentary building. 1867年11月11日,震惊世界的波兰“双十一”惨案爆发。游行示威的人群在有心的引导下,局势很快很快失控,冲击了议会大楼。 When the police of long in coming rush disperses the crowd, in the confusion has 17 congressmen at the scene dead a tragic death, includes speaker Alex dozens congressmen injured. 等姗姗来迟的警察赶到驱散人群时,在混乱中已经有17名议员当场惨死,还有包括议长亚历克斯在内数十名议员受伤。 In such big matter, the Polish government naturally cannot give up, the white terror is covering the Warsaw street. 发生了这么大的事情,波兰政府自然不能善罢甘休,白色恐怖笼罩着华沙街头。 The secret evil behind-the-scenes manipulator had not found, the person who participation parade has closed completely the prison. In any event recovers, Polish Parliament therefore lost the authority. 幕后黑手没有找到,参与游行的人就已经关满了监狱。无论如何补救,波兰议会都因此丧失了权威性。 The news passed to Vienna, Franz smiled. Such obvious matter does not need to discuss, matter of suppression parade often happened, was seized the parliament by the parade people are not something new, but kills so many congressmen the first time. 消息传到了维也纳,弗朗茨一笑而过。这么明显的事情不需要讨论,镇压游行的事情时常发生,被游行群众占领议会也不是新鲜事,可是打死这么多议员的还是第一次。 Parliamentary place, encounters the parade people to attack, will the police be late unexpectedly? Such simple issue, but also needs to discuss? 议会这种地方,遭到游行群众冲击,警察居然会迟到？这么简单的问题,还需要讨论么？ Normally, so long as discovered that the troops on parade hurry to the parliamentary building, the police do not intercept even, will still send out a large group police forces to protect the parliament. 正常情况下,只要发现游行队伍向议会大楼赶去,警察就算是不拦截,也应该派出大量警力保护议会。 Without a doubt, this is the internal right struggle causes. The parliament sweeps the floor dignifiedly, the right of government naturally obtained enhancement. 毫无疑问,这是内部权利斗争导致的。议会威严扫地,政府的权利自然得到了加强。 Also can take the opportunity to attack the competitor, any revolutionary organization that participates in the organization parade, did not talk clearly. 还可以借机打击竞争对手,凡是参与组织游行的革命团体,都说不清楚了。 The protest demonstration can be said as is also displaying the rights of citizens, attacking the parliament, killed congressman this is the terror attack. 抗议示威还可以说是在发挥公民权利,冲击议会、打死议员这就是恐怖袭击了。 The only victor, is the present Polish government. It is not right, they also not necessarily are the victors, not being able to do well them is also only a board game piece, was given to use. 唯一的胜利者,就是现在的波兰政府。不对,他们也未必是胜利者,搞不好他们也只是棋子,被人给利用了。 It looks like in Franz, the possibility that Prussian orchestrates this conspiracy is very big. The Polish government seems like the right to increase, fell into the embarrassed position actually. 在弗朗茨看来,普鲁士人策划这次阴谋的可能性很大。波兰政府看似权利大增,实则陷入了窘迫地位。 The domestic right struggle rule was broken, to the Polish government is not a good deed. The government is the rule maker, is the regular vindicator. 国内的权利斗争规则被打破了,对波兰政府可不是一件好事。政府是规则制定者,也是规则维护者。 Now some people went bad the rule, others will not continue to obey the rule obviously. The political struggle did not involve the personal safety the bottom line to be broken, in the future everyone must prepare assassinated. 现在有人坏了规则,其他人显然也不会继续遵守规则。政治斗争不涉及人身安全的底线被打破了,未来大家都要做好被刺杀的准备。 The dominant foundation of Polish government was vacillated, they want to stabilize the internal stability unable to leave the support of Prussia, then Prussia kingdom's infiltration to Poland will definitely go a step further. 波兰政府的统治根基受到动摇,他们想要稳定国内局势就离不开普鲁士的支持,接下来普鲁士王国对波兰的渗透肯定会更进一步。 If not Franz does not want to go to this beach turbid water, Austria benefits has a hand to meddle in now, has greatly possible truncation reckless Prussia. 如果不是弗朗茨不想去趟这一滩浑水,奥地利现在插手进去,有很大可能截胡普鲁士。 This infiltration benefits uselessly to Austria, the Kingdom of Poland is delicious, Franz does not have the appetite now. Only can look, the unedible delicacy, might as well abandoning does not want. 只是这种渗透对奥地利无用,波兰王国再美味,弗朗茨现在也没有胃口。只能看,不能吃的美味,还不如弃之不要。 ...... …… Murderer/Culprit who in the Berlin royal palace, William I am also suspecting this event. He does not believe that the senior government officials so will be silly, for the temporary advantage, broke the unspoken rule. 柏林王宫中,威廉一世也在怀疑这次事件的真凶。他不相信波兰政府高层会这么傻,为了一时的优势,就打破了潜规则。 William I asked: „Prime minister, you thought that who is most likely to orchestrate this action?” 威廉一世问道:“首相,你觉得谁最有可能策划这次行动？” Soldier is bright , making Moltke reply that this issue is also the job suited to one's special training. Does not intentionally make things hard for somebody absolutely, William I is not so petty. 兵者诡道也,让毛奇回答这个问题也算是专业对口。绝对不是故意刁难,威廉一世还没有这么小家子气。 The Moltke analysis said: „ Your majesty, I thinks that the Polish government should be pure. According to the present international situation inference, I think that Austria benefitting others is the biggest suspect, looked over recently twice the European war, they were the victors. 毛奇分析道:“陛下,我认为波兰政府应该是清白的。根据现在国际局势推断,我认为奥地利人的嫌疑最大,纵观最近两次欧洲战争,他们都是胜利者。 The manufacture incident, instigated the international relations and manufacture international contradiction, most excelled was Britain and Austria benefits. The English need us and Poles resist Russia and Austria jointly benefit, no truth began at this time. 制造事端,挑拨国际关系、制造国际矛盾,最擅长的就是英国和奥地利。英国人需要我们和波兰人联手对抗俄罗斯和奥地利,没有道理在这个时候动手。 Austria benefitted was different, they only needed us to resist Russia with Poland jointly, actually does not want to see both countries to merge. Makes between us and Poland a little small contradictory, needed very much. 奥地利就不一样了,他们只需要我们和波兰联手对抗俄罗斯,却不想看到两国合并。在我们和波兰之间制造一点儿小矛盾,就很有必要了。 Naturally, the French and Russia person also has the suspicion. However is too far from Poland, the had influence is limited, wants to orchestrate this action is not perhaps easy. 当然,法国人和俄国人也有嫌疑。不过距离波兰太远,拥有的影响力有限,想要策划这次行动恐怕不容易。 The Russia person not to mention, Russia and Poland are so contradictory deep, even if the Tsar government wants to do the matter, the Pole not necessarily is still willing to cooperate with them. ” 俄国人更不用说,俄波两国矛盾这么深,就算是沙皇政府想要搞事情,波兰人也未必愿意和他们合作。” This answer sounds very reasonable, William I always felt that some are not right, this somewhat does not seem like the attitude of Vienna government. 这个答案听上去很合理,威廉一世总感觉有些不对,这有些不像是维也纳政府的作风。 Austria benefits the influence in Poland is also big, initially ran the volunteer who joins in the Polish independence movement, inside does not know that many Austria benefit the spy. 奥地利在波兰的影响力也不小,当初跑去参加波兰独立运动的志愿者,里面不知道多少奥地利间谍。 These people are seemingly common, in fact was also in many key positions in the Polish government, must instigate the relations between the two countries means to be many are, does not need such extreme. 这些人看似不起眼,实际上在波兰政府中也占据了不少重要位置,要挑拨两国关系办法多得是,不需要这么极端。 If by some chance the matter exposed, the international influence that brings was big. To turn over to think, the meaning that William I have not said that making the Austria advantage be a scapegoat also indifferently. 万一事情暴露了,那带来的国际影响力就大了。想归想,威廉一世没有说出来的意思,让奥地利背锅也无所谓。 Without evidence, is actually the Austria advantage to do, is actually unimportant, the Pole does not have the ability to retaliate in any case. 在没有证据的情况下,究竟是不是奥地利干的,其实都不重要,反正波兰人也没有能力报复回去。 Franz has not known, black pot has dropped from the clouds. Franz thinks that is the conspiracy of Prussian plan, Prussian also thinks Austria benefits is instigating their relations with Poland. 弗朗茨还不知道,一口黑锅已经从天而降。弗朗茨认为是普鲁士人策划的阴谋,普鲁士人也认为奥地利在挑拨他们同波兰的关系。 ...... …… St. Petersburg, Alexander II is listening respectfully to the report of subordinate. If the content passes on, will shock the entire continental Europe absolutely. 圣彼得堡,亚历山大二世正在聆听手下人的汇报。如果内容传出去的话,绝对会震惊整个欧洲大陆。 According to the profit inference, who makes a profit in a big way, whose suspicion is biggest. The Polish government and Prussia become the biggest suspect, who thinks Russia there is nothing to do with? 根据获利推断,谁获利最大,谁的嫌疑就最大。波兰政府和普鲁士就成为了最大的嫌疑犯,谁会想到毫不相干的俄罗斯呢？ Perhaps now the Polish government has recorded on this account Prussia, even if in the short-term cannot leave the support of Prussian, the relations between the two countries cast a shadow. 恐怕现在波兰政府已经把这一笔账记到了普鲁士身上,就算是短期内离不开普鲁士人的支持,两国关系还是蒙上了一层阴影。 Must interfere with the ally of internal affairs, it is estimated that no one will like. Once Polish king stabilized, related must change. 一个要干涉自家内政的盟友,估计没有人会喜欢。一旦波兰国王稳定了下来,普波关系就要发生变化了。 Not only this is the conspiracy, but also along with open intrigue. Without evidence, Prussian cannot clear the suspicion. 这不光是阴谋,还伴随着阳谋。在没有证据的情况下,普鲁士人根本就洗不清嫌疑。 Draws back one step, even proved purely. Relates can restore such as beginning? Obviously is not possible, only if the Berlin government lets go this opportunity to infiltrate to Poland. 退一步来说,就算证明了清白。普波关系就能够恢复如初么？显然是不可能的,除非柏林政府放弃这个机会向波兰渗透。 Alexander II provided one to have the contradictory excuse to both countries, the place of two countries possible conflicts of interest were too many. So long as cannot be in one, was doomed contradictory layer on layer/heavily. 亚历山大二世只是给两国提供了一个发生矛盾的借口,普波两国可能利益冲突的地方太多。只要不能合为一体,就注定了矛盾重重。 If the Austria advantage takes the rap, then planning of Alexander II was more perfect. Both countries benefit the relations to deteriorate with Austria, means that in future war, Russian Empire also has an ally. 要是奥地利背了黑锅,那么亚历山大二世的算计就更加完美了。普波两国同奥地利关系恶化,意味着未来的战争中,俄罗斯帝国还有一个盟友。 The taste of fighting single-handedly, is not wonderful, Alexander II does not want to come for the second time. 孤军奋战的滋味,一点儿也不美妙,亚历山大二世不想来第二次了。 Experience teaching. 吃一堑,长一智。 Underwent this lesson, Alexander II knew the importance of ally. The youth advocated that „own sparse Austria”, now seemingly is more like a joke. 经过了这次教训,亚历山大二世知道了盟友的重要性。年轻时代主张“亲普疏奥”,现在看起来更像是一个笑话。 In the countries, only depending on likes to decide the foreign policy personally, is completely the stupid attitude. 在国家之间,仅凭个人喜好决定外交政策,完全就是傻逼作风。 Different from the established empire, the Prussia kingdom wants to expand powerful. At that time peripheral three Great Emperor National capitals could not win, finally the choice started to Russian Empire. 不同于老牌帝国,普鲁士王国想要强大就必须要扩张。当时周边三大帝国都打不赢,最后选择对俄罗斯帝国下手。 This is not because Russian Empire is weak, but is Russia does not have the ally. Since Russian Empire breaks through, but can also harvest the friendship of UK , France, does not need to be worried about the land tax issue. 这不是因为俄罗斯帝国弱,而是俄罗斯没有盟友。并且从俄罗斯帝国突破,还可以收获英法的友谊,不用担心钱粮问题。 Naturally the transportation is also a very important factor, law Austria both countries has the complete railway network, as first knew that railroad to war important Prussia, they before provoking the war have made the appraisal. 当然交通也是一个很重要的因素,法奥两国都有完整的铁路网,作为最先认识铁路对战争重要性的普鲁士来说,他们在挑起战争前就做过评估。 law Austria can put in the military is too many, cannot do well one wave to carry off, they chose the military to invest limited Russian Empire. 法奥能够投入兵力太多,搞不好就一波被带走,他们才选了兵力投入有限的俄罗斯帝国。 No matter many reasons, the one who arranges first was Russian Empire is isolated. No matter rational has not managed, attacking Russian Empire looks like in various European countries is just. 不管多少理由,排第一的还是俄罗斯帝国被孤立了。甭管有理没理,进攻俄罗斯帝国在欧洲各国看来都是正义的。 If attacks other countries, was hostile very much easily. Before Russia enters the war, Prussia attacked Denmark to be accused by various European countries, many people are appealing to the international sanctions. 要是进攻其他国家,很容易遭到敌视的。在俄国参战前,普鲁士进攻丹麦就遭到了欧洲各国的谴责,很多人都在呼吁国际制裁。 Finally, the Tsar government enters the war, the situation changed instantaneously. Everyone condemned Prussia to invade Poland, supported Prussia and Russia opens does. 结果,沙皇政府一参战,情况瞬间发生了变化。大家一面谴责普鲁士入侵波兰,一面又支持普鲁士和俄罗斯开干。 Russian Empire substantive ally Austria benefits only, after because also Alexander II succeeds to the throne, became estranged. The accident on diplomacy directly affected the war, Austria benefitted to their support, dropped compared with Near East in time of war, not only a scale. 俄罗斯帝国唯一有分量的盟友奥地利,也因为亚历山大二世继位后疏远了起来。外交上的变故直接影响到了战争,奥地利对他们的支持力度,比近东战争时期下降了不只是一个档次。 After learning the experience, Alexander II also started to take seriously the diplomacy, splitting up related is only a point. 总结经验教训后,亚历山大二世也开始重视外交了,分化普波关系只是其中的一环。