In March 1867, Austria benefitted in Austria boundary had the vast momentum military exercise, making Prussian fearful and apprehensive. 1867年3月,奥地利在普奥边界进行了声势浩大的军事演习,令普鲁士人心惊胆战。 Just fired off the Prussia war, they are busy licking the wound, may not have to come Austria war again a courage of time. 刚刚打完普俄战争,他们正忙着舔伤口,可没有再来一次普奥战争的勇气。 At this time if hit, not only the front all victories felt nauseated, protected oneself is very difficult to achieve. 这个时候要是打起来了,不但前面的所有战果要吐出去,就连自保都很难做到。 In the Berlin royal palace, foreign minister Mike Kate said: „ Austria benefits others this is demonstrating, they will not provoke the war in this time. 柏林王宫中,外交大臣麦克凯特说道:“奥地利人这是在示威,他们不会在这个时期挑起战争的。 Once the war breaks out, the Russia person will definitely continue this war, the Tsar government, so long as follows on the heels dozen of soy sauce, can take back Poland and Baltic Sea area. 一旦战争爆发,俄国人肯定会继续这场战争,沙皇政府只要跟在后面打酱油,就可以收回波兰和波罗地海地区。 This is not the Vienna government wants to see that a powerful Russian Empire does not serve their benefits. suddenly Austria Union is only because the benefit exists temporarily, they sooner or later for the European hegemony, but to. 这不是维也纳政府想要看到的,一个强大的俄罗斯帝国不符合他们的利益。俄奥同盟只是因为利益暂时存在的,他们迟早会为了欧洲霸权而对上。 The international situation, the Vienna government must consider now. The European countries do not want to see that overbearing Austria benefits, at this time provoked the war, they will fall into the isolated state. 还有现在国际局势,维也纳政府不可能不考虑。欧洲各国都不想看到一个霸道的奥地利,这个时候挑起战争,他们会陷入孤立状态。 If after the war breaks out, the French starts to the Rhineland area, is the Vienna government interferes, or does not interfere? 如果战争爆发后,法国人对莱茵兰地区下手,维也纳政府是干涉、还是不干涉？ The interfered words, might make the Austria two countries all-out war erupt ; Words that does not interfere with, how do they pose as the German area leader? ” 干涉的话,很可能就会让法奥两国全面战争爆发;不干涉的话,他们又怎么以德意志地区领导者自居？” The truly fearless reason, Mike Kate has not said. Hitting definitely cannot win, the Prussia kingdom now is exhausted. 真正无所畏惧的理由,麦克凯特没有说出来。打肯定是打不赢的,普鲁士王国现在已经是精疲力尽。 So long as the Berlin government enough is not concerned about face, there is opportunity pit Austria to benefit, reversal present passive condition. 可是只要柏林政府够不要脸,还是有机会坑奥地利一把,逆转现在的被动状态。 Once the French invades the Rhineland area, the Prussia government can admit defeat directly, and joins new Holy Roman Empire , requesting the Austria advantage to defend the German area territorial integrity. 一旦法国人入侵莱茵兰地区,普鲁士政府可以直接认输,并且加入新神圣罗马帝国,要求奥地利保卫德意志地区领土完整。 law Austria war detonated, the situation changed. If the French got the winning side, or was the war was in a state of deadlock, they can also again the treachery. 法奥战争就这么引爆了,情况就发生了变化。如果法国人占据了上风,或者是战争陷入了僵持状态,他们还可以再次倒戈。 Do not suspect the moral integrity of politicians, so long as the benefit is big enough, does not have any cannot do. 不要怀疑政客们的节操,只要利益足够大,没有什么干不出来的。 The pillar/backbone of Prussia kingdom is the Junker aristocrat, even if this class Vienna government wants to buy, still leaves does not have the price of buy. 普鲁士王国的支柱是容克贵族,这个阶层维也纳政府就算是想要收买,也出不起收买的价钱。 both sides have in secret had contacted, if Franz is willing to compromise, the German area can unify momentarily. 私底下双方早就有过接触了,如果弗朗茨愿意妥协的话,德意志地区随时都可以统一。 The Junker aristocrats oppose to join new Holy Roman Empire for the benefit. If Prussia can obtain with Austria benefits the same position, and safeguards their interests, then everyone can merge momentarily. 容克贵族们反对加入新神圣罗马帝国只是为了利益。如果普鲁士可以取得和奥地利同等的地位,并且保障他们的利益,那么大家随时可以合并。 Obviously this is not possible, if compromised, new Holy Roman Empire split. 显然这是不可能的,要是妥协了,新神圣罗马帝国又分裂了。 An empire can only have a core, if turned into two, then turned into Prussia to bring one crowd of small state to benefit the resistance in neutralize Austria. 一个帝国只能有一个核心,如果变成了两个,那么就变成了普鲁士带着一群小邦国在帝国中和奥地利对抗。 From the beginning, Franz made Decision state the right must be restrained. 从一开始,弗朗茨就做出了决定-邦国的权利必须要受到约束。 After so many years efforts, he reclaimed the diplomatic power, the mintages, the army command power and some financial powers, how possibly to hand over again? 经过这么多年的努力,他才收回了外交权、铸币权、军队指挥权和部分财政权,怎么可能再次交出去呢？ Land minister of the navy Rowen questioned: „ This is only you wishfully guessed, does not represent the standpoint of Vienna government. 陆海军大臣罗恩质疑道:“这只是你一厢情愿的猜测,并不代表维也纳政府的立场。 What the Austria advantage becomes the leader in German area to depend is the strength, is not the so-called public opinion. They first had the strength, then earned the support of people. 况且,奥地利成为德意志地区的领导者靠的是实力,并不是所谓的民意。他们是先有了实力,然后才获得了民众的支持。 The nationalism influence is truly big, but this is also not enough to control the decision of Vienna government. With unification of Rhineland area receiving in exchange to Germany, to Austria altruistic, does not calculate that suffers a loss? 民族主义影响力确实很大,但这还不足以左右维也纳政府的决策。用莱茵兰地区换取对德意志的统一,对奥地利人来说,不算吃亏吧？ Austria benefits to us has dreaded very much, in numerous state of German area, only then we also threaten their strength. ” 要知道,奥地利对我们一直都很忌惮,德意志地区的众多邦国中,只有我们也威胁到他们的实力。” As the military representative, Rowen is military force supreme esteem. This is the national condition decision of Prussia kingdom, everyone became the military force supreme supporter. 作为军方代表,罗恩是武力至上的推崇者。这是普鲁士王国的国情决定的,大家都被成为了武力至上的拥护者。 To influence that Austria benefits, Rowen does not regard as important. In his opinion, the strength is first. Now the Austria advantage has the sufficient strength, other issue is not anything. 对奥地利的影响力,罗恩并不看重。在他看来,实力才是第一位的。现在奥地利有足够的实力,别的问题都不算什么。 So long as can unify the German area, the Rhineland area lost also lost, at the worst was scolded several by the people. In the future so long as received, these issues can wash white drop. 只要能够统一德意志地区,莱茵兰地区丢了也就丢了,大不了被民众骂几句。未来只要收了回来,这些问题都可以洗白掉。 Not is only his personal view, many people have the same view. Folk certain groups still have the price unification in the promotion, namely: Pays certain price, the receiving in exchange country is unified. 不光是他的个人看法,很多人都有相同的看法。民间某些团体还在鼓吹有代价统一论,即:付出一定代价,换取国家统一。 Specifically includes: West of the Rhine cession of territory to the French, is the Polish area to cede to the Russia person. 具体包括:把莱茵河以西的领土割让给法国人,把普属波兰地区割让给俄国人。 Some people also conducted the thorough analysis, thinks that such a, the Prussia kingdom shrank the larger part, can make the empire after unification stabler. 有人还进行了深入分析,认为这么一来,普鲁士王国就缩水了一大半,可以让统一后的帝国变得更加稳定。 This is the Junker aristocrats most was worried that Austria benefits, if annexes a Prussia kingdom of shrinkage version, they really must lose seriously. 这是容克贵族们最多担心的,奥地利如果只是兼并一个缩水版的普鲁士王国,他们就真的要损失惨重了。 The Prussia kingdom adds to be big compared with all state excluding Austria advantage, such big state exists, will obviously weaken the authority of central government. 普鲁士王国比除奥地利之外的所有邦国加起来都要大,这样一个大邦国存在,明显会削弱了中央政府的权威。 The Austria advantage wants to lead new Holy Roman Empire , must suppress the Prussia kingdom, limits them in the controllable range. both sides were in the opposite naturally, does not have the possibility of compromise. 奥地利想要主导新神圣罗马帝国,就必须要打压普鲁士王国,把他们限制在可控范围之内。双方天然处于了对立面,不存在妥协的可能。 This view excluding astute politician, only then they look understand, after the Austria advantage unifies the German area , the situation will be bad. 这种看法不包括精明政客,只有他们看得明白,奥地利统一德意志地区后局势会有多么糟糕。 Politically, falling into the isolated state is inevitable, the Central European big empire was hostile to by Europe naturally ; In the military, that is also the world-wide all enemy. 政治上,陷入孤立状态是必然的,中欧大帝国天然遭到欧洲敌视;军事上,那也是举世皆敌。 This enemy simultaneously from mainland and sea. On land great, having a look at the map to know, must resist with France and Russia simultaneously. 这个敌人同时来自大陆和海洋上。陆地上没得说,看看地图就知道了,要同时和法俄两国对抗。 The sea situation is worse, benefits the navy to with UK , France resist in Mediterranean Austria, must fight with the Russia person in Baltic Sea, must fight with UK , France in Atlantic Ocean simultaneously. 海上局势更加糟糕,在地中海奥地利海军要和英法对抗,在波罗地海要和俄国人争锋,在大西洋要同时和英法争锋。 This neglects the result of small country, in fact Spain, Portugal, Holland and Northern European federation, can be the enemy who Austria benefits, this is the geopolitics decision. 这还是忽略小国的结果,实际上西班牙、葡萄牙、荷兰、北欧联邦,都会是奥地利的敌人,这是地缘政治决定的。 Besides Switzerland and Belgium have the greatly possible neutrality, in continental Europe as far as eyes can reach is the enemies, Montenegro and Greece that even if not worth mentioning, are still no exception. 除了瑞士和比利时有很大可能中立外,欧洲大陆上一眼望去都是敌人,即便是不值得一提的黑山和希腊,也不会例外。 It is not right, Greece and Montenegro benefitted with Austria have stood in the opposite. Their dreams of becoming a major power, were benefitted by Austria blocking. 不对,希腊和黑山同奥地利已经站在了对立面。他们的大国梦,被奥地利给挡住了。 If not the external enemy are too many, why otherwise Franz must suppress the Russia person, emits a France? To not reduce pressure, with diverting everyone's attention. 如果不是外在敌人太多,不然弗朗茨干嘛要打压完俄国人,又放出一个大法兰西？还不是为了减轻压力,和分散大家的注意力。 The Russia person declined, Austria benefits can get rid of the war on two fronts the difficult position. Even the operate miss, detonated the European all-out war, can still solve the east line in the shortest time. 俄国人衰落了,奥地利才能够摆脱两线作战的困境。就算是操作失误,引爆了欧洲全面战争,也可以在最短的时间内解决东线。 Shoulders the ambition of French, indulged France to appear intentionally not to mention. 挑起法国人的野心,故意放纵大法兰西出现更不用说了。 They are also the European public enemies, two jumbos also appear, the governments in Europe ignorant circle, will be very instantaneously difficult to find out the response in a short time. 他们也是欧洲公敌,两个巨无霸同时出现,欧洲各国政府瞬间就会懵圈,短时间内很难想出应对方案。 Two to holding condition, regardless of which dropped down, another will become European hegemon. Such choice question, who knows how to do? 两强对持状态,无论哪一家倒下了,另外一家都会成为欧洲霸主。这样的选择题,谁知道怎么做？ This hesitant, the situation will change. 这一犹豫,局势就会发生变化。 To put it bluntly, this is gambling. Franz after betting the German area unifies, can first complete the internal integration. Then depends upon the diplomatic means to shoulder the internal contradictions of France, finally crushes France using the national strength. 说白了,这就是一场赌博。弗朗茨在赌德意志地区统一后,可以先完成内部整合。然后依靠外交手段挑起大法兰西的内部矛盾,最后利用国力压倒法兰西。 But the French is betting French armed forces to hit, can after founding France, defeats to unify Austria after German area to benefit in the battlefield directly. 而法国人则在赌法军更能打,可以在建立大法兰西过后,直接在战场上击败统一德意志地区后的奥地利。 Existence of law Austria Alliance besides various must need, the meaning of jointly clearing. First does not solve other competitors, both sides will not feel relieved the decisive battle. 法奥联盟的存在除了各需所需外,还有联手清场的意思。不先解决其它竞争对手,双方是不会放心决战的。 Although Europe does not have „when the snipe and clam grapple , the fisherman profits” literary reference, but this truth everyone understands. 欧洲虽然没有“鹬蚌相争,渔翁得利”的典故,可是这个道理大家还是懂的。 Obviously, this is not the Berlin government knows. If they know that law Austria formed an alliance, it is estimated that does not have the thoughts to fiddle with anything „big Prussia” plan, but hurries to find the person to stick together to warm up. 显然,这不是柏林政府所知道的。如果他们知道法奥结盟了,估计就没有心思捣鼓什么“大普鲁士”计划,而是赶紧找人抱团取暖。 Foreign minister Mike Kate ridiculed: „ According to your meaning, handed over the Silesia area? Do not forget, Austria altruistic also proposed purchases to be the Saxony area. 外交大臣麦克凯特讥讽道:“按你的意思,就这么交出西里西亚地区了？不要忘了,奥地利人还提出了购买普属萨克森地区。 This compromise concessions, will only make them reach out for a yard after taking an inch, where can we let arrive go? If really compromised, how the government does give the people to confess? ” 这种妥协让步,只会让他们得寸进尺,我们能够让到什么地方去？真要是妥协了,政府如何给民众们交代？” Chief of the general staff Moltke refuted: „Naturally does not cede in vain, we can conduct the benefit exchange with the Austria advantage, now we need the support of Vienna, at least is tacitly consents......” 总参谋长毛奇反驳道:“当然不是白白割让,我们可以和奥地利进行利益交换,现在我们需要维也纳的支持,至少是默许……” ...... …… Looks at the dispute arguing endlessly people, style unusual is unharmonious. The military advocates the compromise, the government call is strong, how to see that seemed like the order to do the inversion. 看着争执不休的众人,画风非常的不和谐。军方主张妥协,政府主张强硬,怎么看都像是顺序搞颠倒了。 Truly was does to invert, what initial position compromise was the government civil officials, the military advocated that dealt strongly. However with the change of situation, this situation turned. 确实是搞颠倒了,最初主张妥协的是政府文官们,军方主张强硬应对。但是随着局势的变化,这种情况发生了逆转。 In fact, this is only extension of Berlin government right struggle. Now the civil official faction was in the absolute disadvantage in the government right struggle, the decision-making power fell into the military hand, they were not willingly defeated naturally must do the matter. 实际上,这只是柏林政府权利斗争的延续。现在文官派系在政府权利斗争中处于了绝对劣势,决策权落入了军方手中,他们不甘心失败自然要搞事情了。 In the face of the right, many bottom lines do not exist. The civil official faction had arrived at the critical moment of life and death, once London negotiated to finish, the military with winning the prestige of Russia, the right to speak in government will further also enhance. 在权利面前,很多底线都不存在了。文官派系已经到了生死存亡的关键时刻,一旦伦敦谈判结束,军方携大胜俄国之威,在政府中的话语权还会进一步提高。 Wins the volume naturally to advocate that in the military of grasping asked steadily, as for the sequela of ceding territory bringing, in fact is not serious. 胜卷在握的军方自然主张求稳了,至于割地带来的后遗症,实际上并没有那么严重。 Cedes territory must look how shears the law, so long as the operation has been lost in the control area. Now the Prussia kingdom lacks is not the land, but is the population, particularly lacks a native of Germany. 割地也要看怎么个割法,只要操作得到损失都在控制范围内。现在普鲁士王国缺少的不是土地,而是人口,尤其是缺少德意志人。 The eastern Prussia area emptied, the urgently needed people fill, the new occupied area also needs to immigrate the stable place. The population and finance on cession land packed to carry off completely, loses white Austria to benefit on the line. 东普鲁士地区空了,急需民众填充,新占领区也需要移民稳固地方。把割让土地上的人口、财务全部打包带走,丢一块白地奥地利就行了。 This fulfilled the agreement similarly, but also made the Vienna government not have the words to say. The initial agreement ceded the Silesia area, but has not agreed to include the above population and property. 这同样是履行了约定,还让维也纳政府没有话说。当初的约定只是割让西里西亚地区,可并没有约定要包括上面的人口、财产。 If wants to do the matter, but can also leave behind some people, shifts the local all industries to these personal names, then comes one non-violent not to cooperate. 如果想要搞事情,还可以留下一部分民众,把当地的所有产业都转移到这些人名下,然后来一个非暴力不合作。 In this private property sacred inviolable society, where the legal astronomy writes, others do not cooperate through the legal method, the Vienna government is also helpless. 在这个私有财产神圣不可侵犯的社会,法律天文在哪里写着,人家通过合法手段不合作,维也纳政府也无能为力。 Naturally, this helpless is only the short time. The means always person wants to come out, once discarded the moral integrity, many means can solve the problem. 当然,这个无能为力只是短时间的。办法总是人想出来的,一旦丢掉了节操,很多办法都可以解决问题。 The military standpoint changes the reason that was unable saying that is the Junker aristocrats needs the labor force to cultivate the land to them. This age mechanization degree is not high, the demand of agricultural to labor force is not small. 军方立场转变还有一个不能说的理由,就是容克贵族们需要劳动力给他们耕种土地。这个年代机械化程度还不高,农业对劳动力的需求一点儿也不小。 The eastern Prussia area is the supreme headquarters of Junker aristocrat, now the person do not have, they could not find the sufficient labor force to resume production. 东普鲁士地区是容克贵族的大本营,现在人都没了,他们找不到足够的劳动力恢复生产。 The new occupied area, many lands through will also seal to enjoy to fall into the hand of Junker aristocrats after the war, these lands also need the labor force cultivation. 还有新占领区,很多土地也会通过战后封赏落入容克贵族们的手中,这些土地也需要劳动力耕种。 Without coming from the people in native place, uses the native to cultivate completely, light/only the language communication is a major problem. 如果没有来自于本土的民众,全部使用当地人耕种,光语言沟通就是一个大问题。 Moreover the aristocrat rules the place also needs the foundation, the native revolted, they also need to suppress, without person on one's own side line? 而且贵族统治地方也是需要根基的,当地人反抗起来了,他们也需要进行镇压,没有自己人怎么行呢？ The Silesia area benefits in the hand to capture from Austria, here is primarily the industry, the strength of capitalists is more powerful, even if threw the Junker aristocrat not to lose. 西里西亚地区是从奥地利手中夺取的,这里以工业为主,资本家们的实力更加强大,就算是丢了容克贵族也没有损失。 Is the Saxony area is also similar, good of very economic development, but joins the Prussia kingdom time is too short, is not the basic plate of Junker aristocrats. 普属萨克森地区也差不多,经济发展的很不错,但是加入普鲁士王国时间太短,不是容克贵族们的基本盘。 The civil official faction was different, to contend with the military, they have to form an alliance with the domestic capitalist. As bourgeoisie's benefit spokesman in government, naturally must protect the interests of bourgeoisie now. 文官派系就不一样了,为了和军方抗衡,他们不得不和国内的资本家结盟。作为资产阶级在政府中的利益代言人,现在自然要保护资产阶级的利益了。 Theoretically, shifted the population property, the loss of Prussia kingdom can minimize. The general public can also obtain the government to compensate, seemingly also good. 理论上,把人口财产都转移了,普鲁士王国的损失可以降到最低。普通民众也可以获得政府补偿,看上去似乎还不错。 The interest of only capitalists is unable to safeguard, where the factory is not can construct, even if all conditions satisfied, after changing an area, they must operate the human relations and distribution. 唯独资本家们的利益无法保障,工厂不是什么地方都可以建造的,就算是所有条件都满足了,换个地区后他们又要重新经营人脉关系、销售网络。 This is not government that son compensation institute can make up, in the process of this change in situation, they have is greatly possibly replaced by others very much. 这不是政府那点儿补偿款所能够弥补的,在这个变局的过程中,他们有很大可能被别人所取代。