St. Petersburg Winter Palace 圣彼得堡冬宫 The contract of suddenly Austria two countries armament transaction, has appeared in the table-top of Nicholas I, together delivers also has the loan to be blocked, the Austria Libyan government suggested to distribute the document of debt volume. 俄奥两国军备交易的合同,已经出现在了尼古拉一世的案头,一起送达的还有贷款受阻,奥地利政府建议发行债卷的文件。 The matter of arms purchase production line, Nicholas I do not have the opinion, commented in the document directly. 购买武器生产线的事情,尼古拉一世没有意见,直接在文件上做了批示。 The Russian Empire war industry domain and various European countries gap is huge, is not in the short-term can make up, purchasing the production line is in the short-term levels the only choice of disparity. 俄罗斯帝国军工领域和欧洲各国差距巨大,不是短期内能够弥补的,购买生产线是短期内抹平差距的唯一选择。 Nicholas I asked: „Austria proposed provides the bond, how did you see?” 尼古拉一世问道:“奥地利提议发放债券,你们怎么看？” First Lord of the Treasury Arui Stanley Rhode analyzes: „ Your majesty, this perhaps unusual trouble. We have to provide the bond, but the beforehand bond meets coldly in the capital market. 财政大臣阿瑞斯坦利罗德分析:“陛下,这恐怕非常的麻烦。我们不是没有发放过债券,可是之前的债券都在资本市场上遇冷。 Now wants to sell the bond, besides the Austria altruistic proposition with collateral, but must have the enough high interest, can obtain the capital sleeps. 现在想要把债券销售出去,除了奥地利人提议用抵押品外,还必须要有足够高的利息,才能够获得资本的亲寐。 This will considerably increase our financial costs, previously we obtained the loan monthly interest in be 0.2 from the Austria advantage, perhaps if the issue debentures must greatly enhance. 这会大大增加我们的财务成本,此前我们从奥地利获得贷款月息只有0.2,要是发行债券的话恐怕要大幅度提高。 The military expenses expenses of this war, far exceeded our estimate, if enhances the financial cost again, in the future our financial pressure very big. ” 这场战争的军费开销,远远超出了我们的预计,如果再提高财务成本的话,未来我们的财政压力会非常的大。” The Tsar government had not considered beforehand the British Buddhist meeting dispatches troops directly, all combat plans, are the Ottoman empire select only. 沙皇政府事先没有考虑英法会直接出兵,所有的作战计划,都是和奥斯曼帝国单挑。 As scheduled, they have the Black Sea thalassocracy , the Russian force can obtain the supplies in sea, the logistics pressure greatly reduces, the Russian force can invest into the troops of Balkan Peninsula also considerably increases. 按照原计划,他们拥有黑海海权在,俄军可以在海上获得补给,后勤压力大大降低,俄军能够投入到巴尔干半岛的兵力也大大增加。 Theoretically, has the Russian force of enough advantage, can defeat the Ottoman empire in 1852, in 1853 can end the war of Balkan Peninsula, then two groups attacks the Asia minor peninsula. 理论上,拥有足够优势的俄军,在1852年就可以击败奥斯曼帝国,1853年就可以结束巴尔干半岛的战争,然后两路出发进攻小亚细亚半岛。 The result plan cannot catch up changes quickly, combat of UK and France disrupted their deployment. The war lost the control from an opening, the military expenses expenses dramatically increased. 结果计划赶不上变化快,英法两国的参战打乱了他们的部署。战争从一开局就失去了控制,军费开销大幅度增加。 Nicholas I continues to ask: „Has the possibility , to continue to obtain the low-interest loan from the Austria Libyan government hand?” 尼古拉一世继续问道:“有没有可能,继续从奥地利政府手中获得低息贷款？” Foreign minister Carl Syre replied: „ Your majesty, if the petty loan does not have the issue, wants to obtain 200 million rubles loan one time, perhaps is not possible. 外交大臣卡尔-渥赛尔回答道:“陛下,如果是小额贷款没有问题,想要一次性获得2亿卢布的贷款,恐怕是不可能了。 Austria benefits, although does not have to reject our loans directly, but they clearly pointed out the fund amount was too big, went beyond their bearing capacity. 奥地利虽然没有直接拒绝我们的贷款,但是他们明确指出了资金数额太大,超过了他们的承受能力。 After our person analyses, the Austria Libyan government is capable of collecting the pen great sum of money, but this will affect their domestic development, only if we pay the big price, otherwise is not possible. ” 经过我们的人分析,奥地利政府有能力筹集出笔巨款,但这会影响到他们国内的发展,除非我们付出大代价,否则是不可能的。” 200 million rubles are astronomical figures, this is equivalent to Russian Empire one year of financial revenue. Normally, the Austria Libyan government does not have this financial resource. 2亿卢布是一笔天文数字,这相当于俄罗斯帝国一年的财政收入。正常情况下,奥地利政府是没有这个财力的。 However the present situation is different, the Russia person loans does not need to take away the really gold/metal silver, all loans use in the Austria benefit for the nation, these money have not left Austria to benefit. 但是现在的情况不一样,俄国人贷款不需要拿走真金白银,所有的贷款都是在奥地利国内使用,这些钱并没有离开奥地利。 These money do not flow in the market all of a sudden, but first in Austria benefits in the account of bank to lie down, through purchase commodity, slow inflow market. 这些钱也不是一下子流入市场的,而是先在奥地利银行的账户上躺着,通过采购物资,缓慢的流入市场。 Because of the relations of tax revenue, this inside a large part of fund backflowed in the Austria Libyan government hand, money that in fact needs to pay wanted few many. 因为税收的关系,这里面很大一部分资金又回流到了奥地利政府手中,实际上需要付出的钱要少的多。 Gives an example, purchases 1 million commodities, the first round of transaction, the value added tax, the corporate tax, tariff wait/etc added that the government receives 200,000-300,000 ; The second round of raw material supply business, but must pay payment transaction tax, value added tax, corporate tax and other tax money, in addition the estimate is tens of thousands. 举个例子,采购一百万的商品,第一轮交易税、增值税、企业税、关税等等加起来,政府就收到200,000-300,000;第二轮原材料供应商,还要支付支付交易税、增值税、企业税等税款,加起来估计又是好几万。 Because of this business, drove the transportation and peripheral food and beverage industry development, similarly will have the tax revenue. The capitalist profit and worker receive after the wages, must spend, spends drives the development of other industries, these are the tax revenues. 因为这笔生意,又带动了交通运输、周边餐饮业发展,同样会产生税收。资本家获利、工人拿到工资过后,又要进行消费,消费又带动其它产业的发展,这些都是税收。 This is only the simplest circulation of commodities, in fact in the industrial cycle system, compared with many that this must be responsible. Few enterprise direct purchase raw materials, can turn into the industrial end product sell. 这只是最简单的商品流通,实际上工业循环体系中,要比这要负责的多。很少有企业直接购买原材料,就可以变成工业成品出售。 Most industries are three rounds and over four round circulations, the fund in the circulation returned to the finance of government through the tax revenue. Fund that in fact this loan Austria Libyan government needs to pay, but 1/2 even are less. 大部分产业都是三轮、四轮以上的循环,在循环中资金通过税收又回到了政府的财政中。实际上这笔贷款奥地利政府需要付出的资金,只是其中的二分之一甚至是更少。 Without these advantages, by that several point interest, UK , France these big powers countries will not only crave in lending money at high interest. 如果没有这些优势,光靠那几个点的利息,英法这些列强国家也不会热衷于放高利贷了。 Still further, speeds up the circulation of commodities between two countries through the loan, the gradually penetrate to various trades and occupations of country, the financial industry is particularly easiest to be infiltrated. 更进一步,通过贷款加快两国间的商品流通,逐步渗透到一个国家的各行各业,尤其是金融业最容易被渗透。 Nicholas I thinks saying: „Because of interest? We can according to the international general standard payment, not relate even again high a little, will not have the debenture interest in be high in any case.” 尼古拉一世想了想说:“因为利息么？我们可以按照国际通行标准支付,就算是再高一点儿也没有关系,反正不会有债券利息高。” Foreign minister Carl Syre replied: „ Your majesty, perhaps is not the issue of interest. Austria altruistic had not proposed that increases the request of interest, should be in the fund has the difficulty. 外交大臣卡尔-渥赛尔回答道:“陛下,恐怕不是利息的问题。奥地利人没有提出增加利息的要求,应该是资金上有困难。 The Austria Libyan government attaches importance to the domestic economic development, not for some interest will interrupt the domestic economic development. Only if we make the large scale concession politically, otherwise they will not spend this sum of money. ” 奥地利政府非常重视国内经济发展,不会为了些许利息就打断国内的经济发展。除非我们在政治上做出大幅度让步,否则他们是不会拿出这笔钱的。” Nicholas I nods, in the countries is very realistic, even the ally was impossible to sacrifice own interests to help. 尼古拉一世点了点头,国家之间是非常现实的,就算是盟友也不可能牺牲自身的利益去帮忙。 If for several points interest, must sacrifice the domestic economic development, who knows how should choose. 如果只是为了几个点的利息,就要牺牲国内的经济发展,谁都知道该怎么选择。 The loan that „ Austria benefits cannot give up, can strive for many to calculate many. Ministry of Finance makes plan of one set of issue debentures, is not only Austria benefits, various European countries can sell. “奥地利的贷款不能够放弃,能够争取多少算多少。财政部制定一套发行债券的计划,不光是奥地利,欧洲各国都可以去销售。 This war does not know when can finish, now the government must raise the fund as far as possible, the interest high point can also accept. ” 这场战争不知道什么时候才能够结束,现在政府要尽可能的筹集资金,利息高一点也可以接受。” Nicholas I am a smart person, has not continued to increase the domestic war tax. 尼古拉一世是聪明人,没有继续增加国内的战争税。 In the history the Russia person met with the boycotts of European major big powers, is unable to raise the fund from the international capital market, is forced to plunder the home. 历史上俄国人是遭到了欧洲各大列强的联合抵制,无法从国际资本市场上筹集资金,才被迫搜刮国内的。 The consequence of additional tax is also serious, after the Crimean War is defeated, the dominant foundation of Tsar government was vacillated. 加税的后果也非常严重,克里米亚战争失败过后,沙皇政府的统治基础就被动摇了。 The post-war body very good Nicholas I sudden death, most historians think that he is takes poison to commit suicide, shouldered the responsibility of disaster with his death, to a confession, consolidated the rule of Tsar government. 战后身体很好的尼古拉一世突然死亡,大部分史学家都认为他是服毒自杀,用他的死承担了战争失败的责任,给外界一个交代,稳固了沙皇政府的统治。 „Yes, your majesty!” The First Lord of the Treasury replied “是,陛下！”财政大臣回答道 ...... …… How Nicholas I dies specifically, Franz does not make clear, in brief his death makes suddenly Austria relate the radical deterioration. 尼古拉一世具体怎么死的,弗朗茨也搞不清楚,总之他的死让俄奥关系彻底恶化。 From individual emotionally, is the national interest, Franz wants Nicholas I to be able the long life. 无论是从个人感情上,还是国家利益上来说,弗朗茨都希望尼古拉一世可以长命百岁。 The Nicholas I moral behavior is good, is a good ally, the Tsar government that he leads has the prestige. 尼古拉一世人品不错,是一位好盟友,他主导的沙皇政府还是有信誉的。 And his live time is longer, the serfdom of Tsar government reforms is later, the difficulty of reform is also bigger. 并且他活的时间越长,沙皇政府的农奴制改革就越晚,改革的难度也就越大。 Does not have the ally of threat is the good ally, recalled a historic information, Franz has to rejoice that caught up with the good time. 没有威胁的盟友才是好盟友,回忆了一遍历史资料,弗朗茨不得不庆幸赶上了好时候。 If no accident/surprise, future several generations of Russia Tsar will be quite law-abiding, this means the back that Austria will benefit in the next several years will be safe. 如果不发生意外的话,未来的几代俄国沙皇都比较安分,这意味着未来数十年内奥地利的后背是安全的。 The Russia person is preparing the issue debentures, Franz is also preparing the issue debentures, money will not always dislike much. Especially in time of war, a multi- reserve ammunition is very necessary. 俄国人在准备发行债券,弗朗茨也在准备发行债券,钱总是不会嫌多的。尤其是战争时期,多储备点儿弹药是非常有必要的。 Different by the high interest attraction capital purchase with the Russia person, Franz is prepares to use the patriotic feeling of national. 和俄国人靠高额利息吸引资本购买不一样,弗朗茨是准备利用国民的爱国情怀。 In order to support Prussian regains the north two duchies, everyone can donate more than ten million shield, now is unified for the German area, everyone will be more positive. 为了支援普鲁士人收复北边的两公国,大家就可以捐款上千万盾,现在为了德意志地区统一,想必大家会更加积极。 „Unified bonds”, Franz has not added on the German three characters in front, mainly to look after other domestic nationalities. If possible, he did not mind that Adds on Holy Roman Empire in front. “统一债券”,弗朗茨没有在前面加上德意志三个字,主要是为了照顾国内的其他民族。如果可能的话,他不介意在前面加上-神圣罗马帝国。 This bond is still keeping secret, when the reunification war initiates, simultaneously starts to distribute. Since is unified for the country, discussed that the benefit was too vulgar. 这份债券还在保密中,会在统一战争发起的时候,同时开始发行。既然是为了国家统一,谈利益就太俗了。 „Unified bonds” annual interest rate only then 1, it can be said that better than nothing. Even the interest is so low, is still confident about sales Franz of bond. “统一债券”的年利率只有一,可以说是聊胜于无。即便是利息这么低,对债券的销售弗朗茨依旧信心十足。 Under his influence, the German thought that Austria benefitted still took up the mainstream, everyone to reconstructing Holy Roman Empire was interested. 在他的影响下,奥地利的大德意志思想依然占据了主流,大家对重建神圣罗马帝国还是非常的有兴趣。 In order to create the public opinion foundation, the Austria Libyan government in 1851 and in 1852, the time pounded down several million shield in the propaganda for successive two years. 为了缔造舆论基础,奥地利政府1851年、1852年,连续两年时间在宣传上砸下了数百万盾。 Not is only Austria benefits, all state of German area, in propaganda range. 不光是奥地利,就连德意志地区的所有邦国,都在宣传范围之内。 „Reconstructs Holy Roman Empire ” to become the German area most popular topic, no matter supports opposed, in brief this concept was poured into everyone's mind. “重建神圣罗马帝国”已经成为了德意志地区最热门的话题,不管是支持还是反对,总之这个概念被灌入了所有人的脑海中。 University of Munich 慕尼黑大学 One the road of debate future about German area, launched here. 一场关于德意志地区的未来之路辩论,就在这里展开了。 Since former king Louis I, published the royal family unifies and after manifesto diligently for Germany, discusses the German area unification to legalize. 自从前任国王路德维希一世,发表了王室将为德意志统一而努力的宣言过后,谈论德意志地区统一就合法化了。 The German thought that the small German thought and north-south German partitioning, as well as just proposed reconstruction Holy Roman Empire wait/etc, a series at sixes and sevens plans, can take the splendid discussion. 大德意志思想、小德意志思想、南北德意志分治、以及刚刚被提出的重建神圣罗马帝国等等,一系列乱七八糟的方案,都可以拿出来堂而皇之的讨论。 Not is only the Kingdom of Bavaria, many German area state, can discuss these issues. The government must express support, this is the rights that 1848 Great Revolution people secure, is the political correctness. 不光是巴伐利亚王国,很多德意志地区邦国,都可以讨论这些问题。政府还必须要表示支持,这是1848大革命民众们争取到的权益,也是政治正确。 Simple, is you can support any German area reunification plan, cannot oppose that the German area is unified. 简单的来说,就是你可以支持任何一种德意志地区统一方案,就是不能够反对德意志地区统一。 Orator who the Holy Roman Empire supporter, Christian fervor rushes: The time that „ the German area splits was too long, various state development modes are different, want to conform immediately these areas, founds a big empire unusual is not easy. 神罗派支持者,克里斯蒂安激情澎湃的演讲者:“德意志地区分裂的时间太长了,各邦国的发展模式都不一样,想要马上把这些地区整合起来,建立一个大帝国非常的不容易。 Such being the case, why don't we neutralize? First reconstructs Holy Roman Empire , gathers everyone in a unified big empire frame. 既然如此,我们为什么不中和一下呢？先重建神圣罗马帝国,将大家聚集在一个统一的大帝国框架内。 Other issue, we can sit to discuss slowly. A year of insufficiently two years, ten years of insufficiently 20 years, dozens years the German area will turn into a whole from now on. ” 别的问题,我们可以坐下来慢慢商议。一年不够就两年,十年不够就二十年,数十年过后德意志地区就变成了一个整体。” The secret propaganda after Austria Libyan government, supports to reconstruct the Holy Roman Empire person unusual shield, even certain young state rulers, are the supporter of this idea. 经过奥地利政府的秘密宣传,支持重建神圣罗马帝国的人非常盾,甚至某些小邦国统治者,都是这一理念的支持者。 Holy Roman Empire is not fearful, this empire has not unified truly, following major state are various line of its matters, the central government exists theoretically, hardly has the binding force to various state. 神圣罗马帝国并不可怕,这个帝国从来都没有真正统一过,下面的各大邦国都是各行其事,中央政府只是理论上存在,对各邦国几乎不存在约束力。 If unifies really inevitably, such unification, can maximum safeguard their benefits. 如果统一真的不可避免,这样的统一,可以最大限度的保障他们的利益。 Is the person who likes having the peaceful life, unified the German area to say simply, in fact made the war is not far. 还有就是喜欢过太平日子的人,统一德意志地区说起来简单,实际上做起来战争就不远了。 Germany, is little Germany, must hit the clothing/taking with the army everyone, can complete the unified cause. 无论是大德意志,还是小德意志,都要用军队把大家打服了,才能够完成统一的伟业。 Reconstructs Holy Roman simply on were many, everyone meets to cast the voting, choosing Emperor to come out, the German area unified. 重建神罗就简单的多了,大家开个会投投票,选个皇帝出来,德意志地区就统一了。 How everyone's interest is affected, various state play respectively various, but improved the exchange economically, foreign time everyone union together. 大家的利益都内怎么受损,各邦国还是各玩儿各的,只不过在经济上加强了交流,对外的时候大家联合在一起。 The German area unified again, that feared that is the nominal unification, this Great Emperor National capital is the world's most powerful empire. 德意志地区再次统一了,那怕是名义上的统一,这个大帝国都是世界上最强大的帝国。 A youth scholar opposes saying: „ Such unification was too slow, various European countries will not conform with the time of national to us. Unified German Empire appears, we must be resisted by various countries immediately. 一名青年学子反对道:“这样的统一太慢了,欧洲各国不会给我们整合全国的时间。统一的德意志帝国出现,我们立即就要遭到各国的抵制。 Even encounters besieging of various countries, only then the German area unifies completely, everyone turns into a whole, we can beat the enemy, completes the great rejuvenation of Germany. ” 甚至是遭到各国的围攻,只有德意志地区完全统一起来,大家变成一个整体,我们才能够击败敌人,完成德意志的伟大复兴。” Finishes speaking, some people oppose saying: „ Do not forget Napoleon's lesson, any country attempts with the entire European resistance, courts destruction. 话音刚落,又有人反对道:“不要忘了拿破仑的教训,任何一个国家妄图和整个欧洲对抗,都是自取灭亡。 The present international situation, does not allow us to complete the country to be unified routinely. Once the German area had the unified sign, various European national strength interfere necessary. 现在的国际形势,根本就不允许我们按部就班的完成国家统一。一旦德意志地区出现了统一的迹象,欧洲各国势必要进行干涉。 The English, French and Russia person and Spanish...... do not look that the German area is unified, resists continental Europe by one's effort is unwise. 英国人、法国人、俄国人、西班牙人……都不会看着德意志地区统一,以一己之力对抗欧洲大陆是不明智的。 At this time, we must learn to walk step by step. First unifies the small German area, waited to conform completed powerful , we unified the entire German area again. ” 这个时候,我们要学会分步走。先统一小德意志地区,等整合完成了、实力强大了,我们再去统一整个德意志地区。” Another person opposes saying: „ Unifies the small German area? If so, we might as well conduct the north-south German area to partition. 又一人反对道:“统一小德意志地区？如果是如此的话,我们还不如进行南北德意志地区分治。 Similarly can avoid the joint attack of big powers, to unify the nation finally saves the strength, why do we want to look at the complexion of Prussia eruption household? ” 同样可以避开列强的联合打击,为最终统一全国积攒实力,我们干嘛要去看普鲁士爆发户的脸色呢？” „ It is not good, this is in splitting the country, rather than unified country. Founds little Germany, is north-south Germany partitioning, the final result is destroying this empire. “不行,这是在分裂国家,而不是统一国家。无论是建立小德意志,还是南北德意志分治,最终的结果都是在毁灭这个帝国。 Germany that divides into two, is our Germany? Sets up Holy Roman again, founds a nominal unified empire, is the key that we walk step by step. ” 一分为二的德意志,还是我们的德意志么？重立神罗,建立一个名义上统一的帝国,才是我们分步走的关键。” ...... …… Without a doubt, these at sixes and sevens thought disseminate, Franz claims credit really great. This inside many thought that are he toss about personally. 毫无疑问,这些乱七八糟的思想传播开来,弗朗茨是居功甚伟的。这里面很多思想,都是他亲自折腾出来的。 To serve the propaganda purpose, definitely cannot say directly: The Austria advantage must unify the German area, everyone should unite by holding the banner of Habsburg dynasty. 想要达到宣传目的,肯定不能直接说:奥地利要统一德意志地区,大家应该团结在哈布斯堡王朝的旗帜下。 If such propaganda, it is estimated that just opened to be cracked down by all governments. 如果这么宣传,估计刚刚开起就遭到了各国政府的镇压。 Now like this at sixes and sevens reunification plan, completely throwing, downplays the form that Austria benefitted, everyone thinks that is people's spontaneous. 现在这样把乱七八糟的统一方案,全部给抛出去,就淡化了奥地利的身影,大家都会认为是民间自发的。 In most people opinion, the German thought that rebuilds the Holy Roman Empire theory, these possibly are the Austria government support, the latter may also be the meaning of German small state. 在大多数人看来,大德意志思想、重建神圣罗马帝国理论,这些都可能是奥地利政府支持的,后者还有可能是德意志小邦国的意思。 The remaining small German thought and north-south German partitioning theories, obviously are Prussian do, these two thought disseminate broadly in the Prussia area. 剩下的小德意志思想、南北德意志分治理论,明显就是普鲁士人搞出来的,这两种思想在普鲁士地区传播最最广。 Genuine and fake really real, what is the real political opinion of Austria Libyan government? Franz will say, reality what political opinion serves the benefit that Austria benefits, the political opinion of Austria Libyan government is anything. 真真假假真真,奥地利政府的真实政治主张是什么？弗朗茨会说,现实什么样的政治主张符合奥地利的利益,奥地利政府的政治主张就是什么。 In the face of the benefit, the national strategy and ideal can change. Reason that has not changed, that is because the benefit is not very big. 在利益面前,国家战略、政治理念都是可以发生改变。之所以还没有改变,那是因为利益不够大。