London 伦敦 From the European arms race, the British government expressed the close attention, they are familiar with the trend of various countries. 从欧洲军备竞赛开始,英国政府就表示了密切关注,对各国的动向他们是了如指掌。 Foreign minister Palmerston's incessant saying: „ After the information that we collect, Austria Libyan government expansion of armaments, should going to Ottoman empire, our source of trouble lead to the east plan successfully. 外交大臣帕麦斯顿滔滔不绝的说道:“经过我们搜集的情报来看,奥地利政府这次扩军,应该是冲着奥斯曼帝国的去的,我们的祸水东引计划成功了。 But has a little accident now, the Austria Libyan government had the possibility and Russia person conducted the compromise. To provoke suddenly Austria conflict, in a short time cannot achieve. 只不过现在发生了一点儿变故,奥地利政府有可能和俄国人进行了妥协。想要挑起俄奥冲突,短时间内是做不到的了。 However the conflicts of interest were many, even the good relations will still be disillusioned. Visits the Balkan Peninsula from the Austria advantage at that moment starting from, was doomed suddenly Austria Union to disintegrate...... ” 不过利益冲突多了,就算是再好的关系也会破灭。从奥地利踏足巴尔干半岛那一刻开始,就注定了俄奥同盟瓦解……” A prime minister John Russell brow wrinkle, questioned: „ Mr. Palmerston, I believes the judgment that suddenly Austria Union will be shattered sooner or later. However at this time possibly was three years later, five years later, but possibly is not now. 首相约翰-罗素眉头一皱,质疑道:“帕麦斯顿先生,我相信的的判断,俄奥同盟早晚会破灭。不过这个时候可能是三年后、五年后,但绝不可能是现在。 Before their common Enemies Ottoman the empire drops down, suddenly Austria both sides can coordinate intimately. 在他们共同的敌人-奥斯曼帝国倒下之前,俄奥双方还是可以亲密配合的。 The seed of hatred planted several hundred years ago, the Russia person, is Austria altruistic, does not have not to make the Ottoman empire drop down. 仇恨的种子在数百年前就种下了,无论是俄国人,还是奥地利人,就没有不想让奥斯曼帝国倒下的。 Besides the hatred, made the benefit that one moved. The Russia person had a liking for Bosphorus, Austria settled on the Danube basin altruistic. 除了仇恨之外,还有更加令人动心的利益。俄国人看上了黑海海峡,奥地利人看中了多瑙河流域。 The Ottoman empire was too weak, by two robbers staring. We cannot make them get down now but actually. 奥斯曼帝国太弱了,被两个强盗给盯上了。偏偏我们又不能让他们现在倒下去。 Austria schemes the Danube basin to be indifferent altruistic, once made Bosphorus fall in the Russia person hand, we lost in a big way. 奥地利人图谋多瑙河流域还无所谓,可是一旦让黑海海峡落到了俄国人手中,我们就损失大了。 I will not think Constantinopolis, can satisfy the appetite of Tsar government. They suppressed so many years desires, must release, absolutely is earth-shaking. 我可不会认为一个君士坦丁堡,就能够满足沙皇政府的胃口。他们憋了这么多年的欲望,现在要释放出来,绝对是惊天动地。 Once the Ottoman empire dropped down, Austria altruistic most annexes half Balkan Peninsula, but the Russia person must seize the Bosphorus coastal land. 一旦奥斯曼帝国倒下了,奥地利人最多吞并半个巴尔干半岛,而俄国人就要占领黑海海峡沿岸的土地。 When the time comes not only we do not guarantee in the interests of Ottoman empire, will be greatly affected in the interests of Mediterranean Sea, even South Africa and India will also be under the threat of Russia person. ” 到时候不但我们在奥斯曼帝国的利益不保,就连在地中海的利益都会大受影响,甚至南非和印度也会受到俄国人的威胁。” This is the key of issue, the English needs the Ottoman empire to block the Russia person. No one wants to be the neighbor with the Russia person, John Bull is no exception. 这才是问题的关键,英国人需要奥斯曼帝国挡住俄国人。没有人想和俄国人做邻居,约翰牛也不例外。 Let the Russia person embezzle the Ottoman empire, grasped this central location that stretches across the Asian , European and African Sanzhou, the situation completely lost the control. 让俄国人侵吞了奥斯曼帝国,掌握了这个横跨亚欧非三洲的中心位置,局势就完全失去了控制。 Palmerston is gloomy the face to explain: „ Prime minister, the situation is not bad. No European country is willing to see that the Russia person does in a big way, this is the opportunity. 帕麦斯顿阴沉着脸解释道:“首相阁下,局势还没有那么糟糕。没有任何欧洲国家愿意看到俄国人做大,这就是机会。 Austria benefits and Russia person achieves consistently, where bottom lines of both sides, are an unknown. 奥地利和俄国人有没有达成一致,双方的底线在哪里,都是一个未知数。 However is a little certain, Austria altruistic also does not hope the Russia person does in a big way. As the old neighbor, the threat assessment their feeling of Russia person are more accurate. 不过有一点可以肯定,奥地利人同样不希望俄国人做大。作为老邻居,俄国人的威胁估计他们的感受更加准确。 Therefore, in this forthcoming war, they will profit mostly, then sat mountain Guanhu to fight, deals a fatal blow to shatter with one stroke the Ottoman empire to be possible not to have the advantage to them. 因此,在这场即将爆发的大战中,他们多半只是会占便宜,然后坐山观虎斗,一棍子打死了奥斯曼帝国对他们来说可没有好处。 The strength of Ottoman empire is not weak, so long as they can divide primary and secondary of clear enemy, defends the Russia person to attack with emphasis, should be able to insist a long time with our support. 奥斯曼帝国的实力不弱,只要他们能够分清楚敌人的主次,重点防御俄国人进攻,在我们的支持下应该可以坚持很长一段时间。 During this period, we can unite France, Prussia, Spain and other European countries, intervenes this war together. ” 在这期间,我们可以联合法国、普鲁士、西班牙等欧洲国家,一起干预这场战争。” This explanation cannot be satisfying, from the present situation, before the London government, foreign policy failure that adopts. 这个解释并不能令人满意,从眼前的局势来看,伦敦政府之前所采取的外交政策失败了。 Courses the Balkan Peninsula the Austria advantage not wrong, is the issue unreasonable Russian bear prepares to want the violence to collapse? 把奥地利引向巴尔干半岛没有错,问题是不讲道理的毛熊准备要暴力破局啊？ Has a look at the time of Russia person war preparations, everyone was clear that this war absolutely is not the small scale. Austria that wants to pick up a bargain in addition again benefits, without the external force intervention, Ottoman empire time can the anti- past probability be infinitesimal. 看看俄国人战争准备的时间,大家就清楚这次战争绝对不是小打小闹。再加上一个想要捡便宜的奥地利,如果没有外力干预,奥斯曼帝国这次能够抗过去的几率无限小。 The English have long known that the Russo-Turkish War must break out, is not only they knows, various European countries have this mental preparation. 英国人早就知道俄土战争要爆发了,不光是他们知道,欧洲各国都有这个思想准备。 The Russia person and friendly match between Ottoman people, has conducted many times, everyone found out the rule, the basic previous generation person grew, both sides on must conduct a competition. 俄国人和奥斯曼人之间的友谊赛,已经进行了很多次,大家都摸清了规律,基本上一代人成长了起来,双方就要进行一次比赛。 This friendly match, is not the strength of causing the downfall of the nation is fighting a decisive battle each time. Every so often is also a local war, the casual excuse can start, hit similar on truce. 这种友谊赛,并不是每次都倾国之力在决战。很多时候也就是一场局部战争,随便一个借口就可以开打,打的差不多了就停战。 This point can look from the setup time, generally speaking is more full of preparation, the war will be more intense. 这一点从准备时间上就可以看出来,总的来说就是准备的越充分,战争就会越激烈。 Since the second half of 1849, the Russia person is preparing, to sign that the present has not started, the scale of this war is conceivable. 从1849年下半年开始,俄国人就在做准备了,到现在还没有发动的迹象,这场战争的规模已经可以想象了。 Under this situation, introduces the Balkan Peninsula the Austria advantage, naturally intensified this confusion. If suddenly Austria resists good, if suddenly Austria collaborates, God could not rescue the Ottoman empire. 在这种背景下,把奥地利引入巴尔干半岛,自然是加剧了这种混乱。如果俄奥对抗还好,要是俄奥联手,上帝也救不了奥斯曼帝国。 Palmerston naturally had a headache, if we had known will have this aspect, his being disinclined managed the Sardinia kingdom, making the Austria advantage fall into the mire in Italy unable to extricate oneself. 帕麦斯顿自然是头疼了,早知道会出现这种局面,他就懒得管撒丁王国了,让奥地利陷入意大利的泥潭无法自拔。 Then the present situation is better on many, without Austria of energy expansion benefits, is opposed vanguard who absolutely the Russia person expands. 那么现在的情况就要好上很多,没有精力对外扩张的奥地利,绝对是反对俄国人扩张的急先锋。 This is the inevitable result, if cannot gain the advantage, Franz will also oppose that the Russia person continues the expansion influence. 这是必然的结果,如果不能获得好处,弗朗茨也会反对俄国人继续扩张势力。 Because of not being jealous, but is the national strategy need. Inversely related truth everyone understands, the Russia person was powerful, naturally means that Austria benefitted declines relatively. 不是因为眼红,而是国家战略需要。此消彼长的道理大家明白,俄国人强大了,自然意味着奥地利相对衰落了。 John Russell thinks saying: „Ministry of Foreign Affairs can start to take action now, if suddenly Austria begins to the Ottoman empire jointly, how long they could not insist.” 约翰-罗素想了想说:“外交部现在就可以开始行动了,万一俄奥联手对奥斯曼帝国动手,他们坚持不了多久。” At this time, the English has not prepared to be barebacked goes forth to battle. On their tiny version army, how long sent unable to be swallowed by the war. 这个时候,英国人可没有准备赤膊子上阵。就他们那支袖珍版陆军,派出去要不了多久就会被战争吞噬。 The key is the gold medal goon French did not have the homing, now Napoleon III has not restored, parliament and president, in addition is fighting. 关键是金牌打手法国人还没有归位,现在拿破仑三世还没有复辟,议会和总统尚且在战斗中。 The internal fight serious French government, internationally spoke does not have the weight/quantity. Commitment that French Ministry of Foreign Affairs makes, wants to cash in is also the countless sufferings and hardships. 内斗严重的法国政府,在国际上说话都没有分量。法国外交部做出的承诺,想要兑现也是千难万难。 ...... …… Paris 巴黎 The international situation to many are the disaster, but to Louis Napoleon Bonaparte, this is completely the opportunity. 国际变局对很多人来说是灾难,但是对路易-拿破仑-波拿巴来说,这完全就是机遇。 The English need a stable French government, can play the role in the following Russo-Turkish War, suppresses the ambition of Russia person. 英国人需要一个稳定的法国政府,才能在接下来的俄土战争中发挥作用,压制住俄国人的野心。 At this time, besides supporting outside him, better choice? 这个时候,除了支持他外,还有更好的选择么？ Can't support the parliamentary faction? Their efficiencies, may compared with not on a dictator. 总不能支持议会派吧？他们的效率,可比不上一个独裁者。 Restoration plan, already, in Napoleon sends born, only misses a right opportunity, can start. 复辟计划,已经在拿破仑派中诞生,只差一个合适的机会,就可以发动了。 Benefits the issue that the expansion of armaments prepares for as for present Austria, just like English, Louis Napoleon Bonaparte also thinks the Austria money pouch to the Balkan Peninsula. 至于现在奥地利扩军备战的问题,和英国人一样,路易-拿破仑-波拿巴也认为奥地利是冲着巴尔干半岛去的。 In order to induce various countries' strategic misjudgement, the Austria Libyan government does not talk only. 为了诱导各国战略误判,奥地利政府可不是光说不练。 Sent the scout to be seized by the Ottoman empire toward the Balkan Peninsula, this was only the small trick. Stations troops to benefit and intersection point of Ottoman empire in Austria, is only the conventional operation. 往巴尔干半岛派探子被奥斯曼帝国逮住了,这只是小伎俩。屯兵在奥地利和奥斯曼帝国的交界处,也只是常规操作。 The folk public opinion that Austria benefits, revisited the old debt of Ottoman empire similarly. Balkan strategy that the military establishes, regularly takes the discussion. 奥地利的民间舆论,同样翻起了奥斯曼帝国的旧账。军方制定的巴尔干战略,隔三差五的拿出来讨论。 If not know that Austria benefits the preparation to take revenge to the Ottoman person, that certainly is not Austria altruistic. 要是不知道奥地利准备向奥斯曼人复仇,那一定不是奥地利人。 Various types of strategic resources, are also transporting to Transylvania to store up unceasingly, as if only missed a excuse, Austria benefits must dispatch troops to the Danube basin. 还有各种战略物资,也在不断运往特兰西瓦尼亚储存,似乎只差一个借口,奥地利就要出兵多瑙河流域了。 Deceived people first deceives oneself, this truth Franz understood, the people on one's own side believed that but also feared that the enemy didn't believe? 骗人先骗己,这个道理弗朗茨还是懂的,自己人都相信了,还怕敌人不相信么？ Except that Austria benefits the cabinet member, only then several high-level military officers of military know that the real motive of government, overwhelming majority Austria altruistic think the government must make war with the Ottoman empire. 除了奥地利内阁成员,就只有军方的几名高层将领知道政府的真实目的,绝大部分奥地利人都认为政府要和奥斯曼帝国开战了。 Many official media, but also are the analyses of say/way, the Russo-Turkish War must break out, the Austria advantage followed to pick up a bargain was good, did not need to pay the too big price, can seize the Danube basin. 不少官方的媒体,还条条是道的分析,俄土战争就要爆发了,奥地利跟着捡便宜就行了,根本就不用付出太大的代价,就可以占领多瑙河流域。 This a series of movements, UK and France naturally are believe that the Austria advantage must start to the Balkan Peninsula. 这一系列的动作下来,英法两国自然是认为奥地利要对巴尔干半岛下手了。 But westbound plans, was covered completely. The only movement, was the domestic railroad construction speed speeds up probably suddenly. 而西进计划,完全被掩盖了下来。唯一的动作,大概就是国内的铁路建设速度突然加快了。 Railroad that Bavaria host constructs, were many in many societies the warm-hearted person, provides the convenience to them. 就连巴伐利亚主持修建的铁路,也多了很多社会上热心人士,给他们提供方便。 Many people still pick up the speed in urging imperial family Bavaria Railway Company, do not delay them to make money. 不少人还在催促皇家巴伐利亚铁路公司加快速度,不要耽误了他们赚钱。 The strategic deceit plan that Austria benefits has deceived UK , France not only, confused Prussian. After determining the goal that Austria benefits is the Balkan Peninsula, Frederick- William IV besides revealing to envy the vision that the envy hates, why should. 奥地利的战略欺骗计划不光骗过了英法,同时也迷惑住了普鲁士人。当确定奥地利的目标是巴尔干半岛后,腓特烈-威廉四世除了流露出羡慕嫉妒恨的目光外,就该干嘛干嘛了。 Without the means that suddenly Austria both countries start to the Ottoman empire, how even if they envy again, is impossible to run to slice. 没有办法,俄奥两国对奥斯曼帝国下手,他们就算是再怎么羡慕,也不可能跑过去分一杯羹。 The geopolitics decided the interests of Ottoman empire, have not related with the Prussia kingdom. Such being the case, Austria wants the expansion of armaments to go along with them altruistic. Without own benefit , the Prussia kingdom naturally does not need to follow up in any case. 地缘政治决定了奥斯曼帝国的利益,和普鲁士王国没有关系。既然如此,奥地利人要扩军就随他们去吧。反正没有自家的利益在,普鲁士王国自然是没必要跟进了。 Not only several big powers were flickered, the long-term Swiss with trepidation also relaxes, determined Austria altruistic to was not good, the life of Ottoman person they went did not close their matters. 不光几个列强被忽悠了,就连提心吊胆好长时间的瑞士人也松了一口气,确定了奥地利人不是冲着他们去的就行了,奥斯曼人的死活可不关他们的事。 Under publicizing of media, suddenly Austria both countries prepare to seek the Ottoman empire unlucky news, is well-known. 在媒体的宣扬下,俄奥两国准备寻奥斯曼帝国晦气的消息,已经是人尽皆知。 Standing and remaining aloof from the thing of no immediate concern to oneself. The European People incarnation to eat the melon people, is waiting for the good play beginning. 事不关己,高高挂起。欧洲民众们纷纷化身为吃瓜群众,就等着好戏开场。