EG :: Volume #9

#900: Thailand situation

LNMTL needs user funding to survive Read More

„We wait, temporarily is not suitable enters the market.” Fu Rongqi makes the decision. “我们还是等,暂时不宜入市。”付荣齐做出决定。 „Why?” Puzzled of Fu Guangzheng face. “为什么？”付光正一脸的不解。 „Because Thailand Government has not intervened. After Thailand Government take action, inevitably is a fierce struggle between two evenly matched opponents, country Government, means will not have.” Fu Rongqi starts to give Fu Guangzheng to pass on the experience. “因为泰国政~府还没干预呢。当泰国政~府出手后,必然又是一番龙争虎斗,一国政~府,不会一点办法都没有的。”付荣齐开始给付光正传授经验。 „We now on?” “那我们现在就等？” „Right, waits.” “没错,等。” This first-grade, was one month passed, Thailand Government really take action had intervened in this period, will fall some exchange rates, has drawn. The time arrived in early May, but Feng Yu also returned to Hong Kong, the nature, Kirilenko also to follow. 这一等,就是一个多月过去了,期间泰国政~府果然出手干预了,将跌了一些的汇率,拉了回去。时间已经到了五月初,而冯宇也已经回到了香江,自然,基里连科也跟了过来。 „Feng, how long but can also wait for?” The Kirilenko patience is limited, this one month, they have owed several hundred million US dollars, but money that the Thai baht exchange proportion, 25 : 1, they make, but also insufficiently compensates a lot. The Thailand stock still slowly is falling luckily, the words that their index futures finalize, can fill the majority of 22 debts. “冯,还要等多久？”基里连科的耐性有限,这都一个多月了,他们亏了几个亿美元,而泰铢的兑换比例,才25:1,他们赚的钱,还不够赔得多呢。幸好泰国的股票还在慢慢下跌,他们的股指期货交割的话,就能填补大部分22的亏空。 „When Soros they cannot bear, he will relate on own initiative our. We only then simultaneously large-scale underselling Thai baht, can suppress Thai baht by potential of as powerful as a thunderbolt.” Feng Yu is calm, must really be seems like so simple, that Kirilenko thinks cooked up the fund of foreign exchange incessantly such to select. “等到索罗斯他们忍不住,他会主动联系我们的。我们只有同时大规模的抛售泰铢,才能以雷霆万钧之势打压住泰铢。”冯宇非常淡定,要真是像基里连科想的那么简单,那炒外汇的基金就不止这么点了。 „But how did you start to buy to empty ringgit of Malaysia?” Kirilenko cannot think through, a currency of country has not suppressed, how to start to browse other national market, like this got down, can the fund use? “可你怎么又开始沽空大马的林吉特了？”基里连科想不通,一个国家的货币都没打压下来呢,怎么又开始涉猎别的国家市场了,这样下来,资金能够用吗？ „You definitely do not know that with country that the Thailand trade sends most frequently, is Malaysia. The debt between two countries are many and complex, after the Thailand economy presents the serious problem, the economy of Malaysia definitely will be affected.” “你肯定不知道,跟泰国贸易往来最频发的国家,就是大马。两国之间的债务非常多而复杂,当泰国经济出现严重问题后,大马的经济必然会受到影响。” Why the history said that this time is the Asian financial crisis , because the economic type between East Asian countries was similar at that time, and trade is frequent, has formed a complete chain link. 为什么历史称这次为亚洲金融风暴,就是因为当时东亚各国之间的经济模式相似,且相互之间贸易往来频繁,形成了一个完整的链条。 After some link breaks, the entire chain link broke, these closely related countries, must be damaged to a certain extent, then suppressed is easier. 当某一环节断裂后,整个链条就断了,这些相互关联的国家,都要在一定程度上受损,然后再打压就容易多了。 Nod that Kirilenko appears to understand but not really understand, he noticed in any case every day is losing money, has the futures contract to reveal, he already requested to disinvest. If no Feng Yu, even if Soros invites, Kirilenko will not attack Thailand, this national economy looks like very good. 基里连科似懂非懂的点点头,反正他就看到每天都在赔钱来着,要不是有期货合约兜底,他早就要求撤资了。如果没有冯宇,就算是索罗斯邀请,基里连科也不会攻击泰国的,这个国家经济看起来非常好嘛。 Thailand now rich? Average per person GDP exceeds 3000 US dollars, is China many times, looks like, had the embryonic form of developed country right? 泰国现在有多富有呢？人均GDP超过3000美元,是华夏的好多倍,看起来,有发达国家的雏形了对吧？ But is strange, the Thailand average per person debt exceeds 1500 US dollars, in other words, the Thailand overall ratio of debt to net worth, has surpassed 50%. 可诡异的是,泰国人均负债超过1500美元,也就是说,泰国整体的负债率,超过了50。 The economic development of Thailand, cannot leave the exit / to speak of foreign capital and our manufacturing industry, our manufacturing industry exit / to speak, accounts for GDP over 42%, this is the considerably large proportion, absolute pillar industry. 泰国的经济发展,离不开外资和本国制造业的出口,本国制造业出口,占GDP的42以上,这是相当大的比重,绝对的支柱产业。 This proportion, in Southeast Asia many by the sea country, manifests, the marine transportation after is the international traffic way of most mainstream. 这种比例,在东南亚多个靠海的国家,都有体现,海运毕竟是最主流的国际运输方式。 Second, is the Thailand real estate industry very prosperous, is their second pillar industries. And the foreign merchant invested to occupy very big proportion, the luxury hotel and office rose straight from the ground, any weekend cottage, the golf course was the unceasing construction. 第二点,就是泰国的房地产业非常的兴盛,也是他们第二个支柱产业。其中外商投资占据了很大的比重,豪华酒店、写字楼拔地而起,什么度假别墅,高尔夫球场更是不断的建造。 Single Bangkok, two international conference centers and four international conference centers under-construction, the hospital bed number of hospital, surpasses the actual need more than three times, the real estate speculation, has become quickly the safe getting rich shortcut. 单只曼谷,就有两座国际会议中心和四座在建的国际会议中心,医院的病床数,超过实际需要的三倍多,炒房,成了快捷保险的发财捷径。 But the huge hidden dangers, that is the vacancy rate of house is extremely high, has surpassed 20%. In other words, constructs these many houses, to not live, not because of need, but to fry to construct. 但其中有一个巨大的隐患,那就是房屋的空置率极高,超过了20。也就是说,建这么多房子,不是为了住,也不是因为需要,而是为了炒而建。 This pattern, was similar to the late 80's US and Japan economy, takes the real estate and exit / to speak as the pillar industry, then rapidly will form a false prosperity, a real estate bubble. 这种模式,跟八十年代末的米国、岛国经济非常相似,以房地产和出口为支柱产业,那么就会快速形成一个虚假的繁荣,一个房地产泡沫。 What is worth mentioning is, in the foreign capital of Thailand real estate speculation, Japan accounted for the enormous proportion, or the investment of Japan, accounted for the enormous proportion in the entire Asia. 值得一提的是,在泰国炒房的外资中,岛国占据了极大的比例,或者说,岛国的投资,在整个亚洲都占据了极大的比例。 Initially the US real estate crashed, shifted Japan the disaster, then the US through the high new technology rapid growth, the real estate also restored once more. But the Japan real estate has not restored, but the intelligent Japan merchant had also found good means that that in other countries of Southeast Asia, the duplication once real estate magnificent false appearance, then they good therefore to make money. 当初米国房地产崩盘,就将灾难转移到了岛国,然后米国通过高新科技再次快速发展,房地产也已经恢复。但岛国的房地产还未恢复,但聪明的岛国商人也找到了一个好办法,那就是在东南亚的其他国家,复制曾经的房地产辉煌的假象,然后他们好因此赚钱。 This they studied clever, so long as when the real estate peak, left to draw back, can make the big money, then the mess, lost to Government of these countries. Like this they not only made money, and has hit other national economy, had guaranteed the Japan Asian economics Boss status, answers multiple purpose. 这回他们学乖了,只要在房地产顶峰的时候,抽身而退,就能赚走大笔的金钱,然后将烂摊子,丢给那些国家的政~府。这样他们既赚到了钱,又打击了别的国家经济,保证了岛国亚洲经济老大的地位,一举多得啊。 A little is very interesting, financial liberalization of Thailand, to promote the development of capital market, eliminated the securities trading tax, to reduce the Corporation dividend tax, even to negotiable securities Corporation, provided the subsidy. 还有一点很有意思,泰国的金融自由化,为了促进资本市场的发展,取消了证券交易税、减少公司股息税,甚至给证券公司,提供财政支持。 Eases the interest rate limit, the interest rate implements marketability, the interbank borrowing market rapid growth of short-term. The foreign exchange opening to the outside world, the foreign investor remits the foreign exchange the upper limit is 500,000 US dollars, this lets the Thailand foreign exchange reserves serious insufficiency. 取消利率限制,利率实行市场化,短期的拆借市场快速发展。外汇对外开放,外国投资者汇出外汇的上限为500000美元,这让泰国的外汇储备严重不足。 Perhaps saw other advantage of national financial industry development, Thailand opened the disembark financial business, Thailand 50 commercial bank, including 35 foreign capital bank, obtained has been possible from the overseas deposit taking and loan, then in Thailand and foreign country by the qualifications that the foreign currency form loaned. 或许是看到了其他国家金融业发展的好处,泰国开放了离岸金融业务,泰国的50家商业银行,其中包括35家外资银行,均获得了可从国外吸收存款和借款,然后在泰国和外国以外币形式贷款的资格。 This point, enables Soros and Feng Yu they to borrow Thai baht very much easily. 这一点,也使得索罗斯、冯宇他们可以很容易就拆借到泰铢。 Naturally a little is very important, that is Thailand permits the non- resident in Thailand commercial bank, opens the Thai baht account, carries on the deposit and loan, and can freely exchange. The Thailand capital item, has let loose basically. 当然还有一点很重要,那就是泰国允许非居民在泰国的商业银行,开立泰铢账户,进行存款和借款,并可以自由兑换。泰国的资本项目,已经基本放开。 In such short-term, can obtain the massive capital inflows, will let our rapid economic development. May also give this financial crisis, has laid down the great hidden. 这样短期内,可以获得大量的外资流入,会让本国经济快速发展。可也给这次金融危机,埋下了重大隐患。 For example they do not implement the foreign loan scale control to the financial institution, the supervision to the financial institution, exists in name only simply, the domestic stock and bond, the completely opening to the outside world, has given the international speculator very big opportunity. 比如他们对金融机构不实行外债规模控制,对金融机构的监管,简直是形同虚设,国内的股票和债券,完全对外开放,给了国际炒家很大的机会。 Then is their investment to the foreign country, does not limit completely, even welcome, thinks that this was prospers our economy to come. 然后就是他们对外国的投资,完全不加限制,甚至是非常欢迎,认为这是繁荣本国经济来了。 Company can the foreign debt, foreign loan scale be huge. The ratio of debt to net worth of their nation has surpassed GDP 50%, very much can explain the issue. It seems like good of Company development, the property growth is gratifying, but had not actually considered that minus owing others' money, loses money actually! 企业可以对外借款,外债规模庞大。他们全国的负债率超过了GDP的50,就很能说明问题了。看似企业发展的不错,资产增长喜人,但却没考虑,刨去欠别人的钱,其实还是亏损！ But Thailand has owed most foreign loan countries, is Japan, Japan also even opens many bank countries in Thailand in the entire East Asia, breaknecking loan of outward, because the Japan fund is serious. Japan in the investment of Thailand, early has exceeded 10 billion US dollars. 而泰国欠了最多外债的国家,就是岛国,岛国也是在泰国甚至在整个东亚开设最多银行的国家,玩了命的往外借款,因为岛国的资金严重过剩。岛国在泰国的投资,早早的就超过了10000000000美元。 Actually Soros they do not attack Thailand, then economy of Thailand, very millennium. Japan when the time comes leaves from the real estate and financial industry, can bring the economy to crash to Thailand. 其实就算索罗斯他们不攻击泰国,那么泰国的经济,也挺不过千禧年。岛国到时候从房地产和金融业上抽身,就能给泰国带来经济崩盘。 ...... ……
To display comments and comment, click at the button