EG :: Volume #10

#901: A variety of reasons( asked to subscribe asks ticket)

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The country is the same with Corporation, when the product mix is simplistic, after forming the trade deficit, will have the financial deficit to appear, then continues to need the fund to invest, makes up the trade deficit deficit of project. 国家跟公司是一样的,当产品结构单一,形成贸易逆差之后,就会有财政赤字出现,然后就继续需要资金投入,来弥补项目的逆差赤字。 This method cannot speak incorrectly actually, but should two premises, whether to guarantee the foreign capital endurance inflow, needs the foreign capital unceasing investment, after another is the capital inflow, should sharpen the export capability of our country, will thus reduce the future project deficit. 这个方法其实并不能说错,但应该有两个前提,一个是能否保证外资持续性流入,也就是需要外资不断的投入,另外一个就是外资流入后,应该提高本国的出口能力,从而减少未来的项目赤字。 Was a pity very much that Thailand Government has only achieved the first point, unceasing has the Japan and other capital inflows, but the export capability of our country, is getting more and more low. 很可惜,泰国政~府只做到了第一点,不断的有岛国等外资流入,但本国的出口能力,却越来越低。 For example the main product of Thailand exit / to speak, is the electronic products, many electronic component of China import, purchases from the Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries. 比如泰国出口的主要产品,就是电子产品,华夏进口的很多电子元件,就是从泰国等东南亚国家采购的。 But starting from, the demand of electronic goods quantity of world substantially was dropping last year, the light closes right up against the growth of China, does not stimulate the Thailand electronic goods export, causes the Thailand export growth, reduced 3%, but the trade deficit reached as high as 8.3%. 可去年开始,全球的电子产品需求量都在大幅下降,光靠着华夏的增长,是拉不动泰国的电子产品出口的,导致泰国的出口增长率,降低到了3,而贸易逆差则高达8.3。 In other words, do not look at exit / to speak seemingly prosperous of Thailand, actually loses money. 也就是说,别看泰国的出口貌似一片繁荣,其实还是赔钱的。 But Thailand main exit / to speak electronic products factory, overwhelming majorities, but also is the Japan investment puts up a factory, because the Thailand land low-priced, the abundant labor force, the wages and consumption level are low, seemed like Thailand turns into the world-class electronic component to make the great nation, was actually Japan and other electronic products Corporation the subcontract(or)/OEM supplier factories. 而泰国主要出口的电子产品工厂,绝大多数,还都是岛国投资建厂的,因为泰国的土地价格低廉、劳动力充裕,工资和消费水平较低,貌似泰国变成了世界级的电子元件制造大国,其实就是岛国等电子产品公司的代工厂。 Even if so many investments, but Thailand many projects, are still the successive years of deficits. It seems like the GDP crazy growth, actually has not gained to how much money, the big end was gained by these foreign investment business, takes Japan as. 即使有这么多的投资,但泰国的很多项目,依然是连年赤字。看似GDP疯狂增长,其实根本没赚到多少钱,大头都被那些外国投资商赚走了,其中以岛国为最。 Under any Sony and Song, even AIWA and sixth sense, have the factory in Thailand. Not only the putting up a factory cost is low, operation cost is low, various foreign capital preferential policies. 什么索尼、淞下,甚至就连AIWA和第六感,都在泰国有工厂。不只是建厂成本低,运营成本低,还有各种的外资优惠政策呢。 Factory were many, the demand of worker is big, the wages of worker, naturally must grow. The Thailand worker wages, in ten years, rose more than ten times, the worker wages were high, then the industry of labor-intensive form, lost the international competitiveness. 工厂多了,工人的需求量就大,工人的工资,自然就要增长。泰国的工人工资,十年内,上涨了十多倍,工人工资高了,那么劳动密集型的产业,就失去了国际竞争力。 Thailand main exit / to speak shoes, clothes and other products, reduced production unceasingly, these factories also in abundance went out of business. 原本泰国主要出口的鞋、衣服等产品,不断减产,那些工厂也纷纷倒闭了。 These data and materials, are Feng Yu find the person acquired, this also lets Feng Yu profound finding, rapidness that such why the Thailand financial crisis can break out. 这些数据、资料,都是冯宇找人收集到的,这也让冯宇深刻的了解到,为什么泰国的金融危机会爆发的这么快。 You look at the Thailand financial deficit, the average per person debt amount exceeds 1500 US dollars, but Thailand person live is natural. Europe upscale perfume, famous name wine, famous car(riage), famous table and other luxury goods, by massive imports, the people seemed like rich, did not enjoy on pursue one. 你看泰国财政赤字,人均负债金额超过1500美元,但泰国人活的还非常潇洒。欧洲的高档香水、名酒、名车、名表等奢侈品,被大量的进口,人们看似有钱了,不就追求一个享受么。 From Thailand is the world third largest Mercedes-Benz importing country, can look that what the Thailand person at this time proud became. Fu Guangzheng once wants to help to sell Thailand Song River car, but the Thailand dealer cannot have a liking, only then imports luxury car, has the sale in Thailand, the low-grade car(riage) market, was occupied by the Japan car(riage) completely. 从泰国是世界第三大奔驰车进口国,就能看出来泰国人此时骄傲成什么样了。付光正曾想帮忙将松江汽车销售到泰国,可泰国的经销商根本看不上,只有进口豪车,在泰国才有销路,中低档车市场,已经被岛国车完全占据了。 The Thailand person is satisfied to the life, thinks own national development unusual is good, even is looking down upon China very much, because of their per capita incomes, far ultra China. 泰国人对生活还非常满意,认为自己国家发展的非常好,甚至很瞧不起华夏,因为他们的人均收入,远超华夏么。 Rich enjoyed, another, invests into stockmarket, all people, to stockmarket very frantic. No matter teacher, worker or driver, even the full-time employment in the woman of home, starts to speculate in the stock market, because stockmarket rises, thinks that the fool goes in can also make money. 有钱了一个是享受,另外一个,就是投入到股市中,所有人,对股市非常的狂热。不管是教师、工人还是司机,甚至全职在家的妇女,都开始炒股,因为股市一路上扬么,都以为傻子进去也能赚钱。 The bank deposit are getting fewer and fewer, everybody takes money, invested into stockmarket. Has crazily, from the bank loan input stockmarket, they believes that from stockmarket making the money, but also interest, but can also gain much. 银行存款越来越少,大家都把钱取出来,投入到股市中去了么。更有疯狂的,从银行贷款投入到股市,他们认为,从股市中赚到的钱,还了利息,还能赚不少。 And the comparison has the representation, is negotiable securities Corporation and financial Corporation, they can lend out the money from bank, even can a certain extent, rig some stocks the stock prices, makes money by this. 其中比较有代表性的,就是证券公司和财务公司,他们可以从银行贷出一大笔钱,甚至可以在某种程度上,操纵部分股票的股价,以此来赚钱。 The loan are getting more and more, the deposit are getting fewer and fewer, bank can only raise the rate on loan, but this is unable to prevent the people to loan, does the annual interest rate reach as high as 17%? Has not related, loans! 贷款越来越多,存款越来越少,银行只能提高贷款利率,可这也无法阻止人们去贷款,年利率高达17？没关系,贷了！ Takes away the real estate speculation and stocks speculation, several months can gain! Which this is invests, clearly is congenial! 拿去炒房、炒股,几个月就能赚回来！这哪是投资啊,分明就是投机！ The loans interest is too high, makes Corporation of industry, has not had the interest, the conventional industry, was seriously restricted, causes the Thailand export products type, are getting fewer and fewer. 贷款利息太高,一些做实业的公司,就还不起利息了,常规产业,受到严重制约,导致泰国的出口产品种类,越来越少。 The normal country, was rich, should invest some foundations the things, for example...... Education. But Thailand, their richness are the false appearances, money investment education that the financial deficit, which comes? 正常国家,有钱了,是不是应该投资一些基础的东西,比如……教育。可泰国呢,他们的有钱是假象啊,财政赤字,哪儿来的钱投资教育？ It can be said that the education and scientific and technological standard of Thailand, were inferior other countries of Asia, compare with China , the difference was far. Currently ranks, Asia first from the bottom. 可以说泰国的教育和科技水平,远不如亚洲的其他国家,跟华夏比,也差远了。目前排名,亚洲倒数第一。 Without the science and technology, without engineer, then the heavy industry and high-tech industry on the development, without any powerful nation, the heavy industry and high-tech industry are backward, therefore in the Thailand surface the economy is prosperous, but is not the powerful nation. 没有科学技术,没有工程师,那么重工业和高科技产业就发展不起来,没有任何一个强国,重工业和高科技产业是落后的,所以泰国表面上经济繁荣,但根本算不上强国。 Simply speaking, Thailand is on the day, gets down is not well-grounded, the high-tech industry cannot come up, the traditional industry lost the competitive power, the trade deficit is inevitable, the financial deficit is also getting bigger and bigger. 简单来说,泰国就是上不着天,下不着地,高科技产业上不去,传统的产业又失去了竞争力,贸易逆差不可避免,财政赤字也就越来越大。 These issues, can't a Thailand Government point see? 这些问题,泰国政~府难道一点都看不到吗？ Naturally is impossible, they saw, but does not have specially good solution. The trade deficit is getting bigger and bigger, Thai baht itself faces the depreciation the pressure. But Thai baht, once depreciates, Thailand fortunately will be more. 当然不可能,他们看到了,但没有特别好的解决办法。贸易逆差越来越大,泰铢本身就面临贬值的压力。可泰铢一旦贬值,泰国会亏得更多。 Does not have the means that Thailand Government can only intervene in secret, must guarantee the stability of foreign exchange market. When country Government has to the take action intervention foreign exchange market, fully explained that the money market of this country's, presented the serious problem, the economy, presented the serious problem! 没办法,泰国政~府只能暗中干预,一定要保证外汇市场的稳定。当一国政~府不得不出手干预外汇市场的时候,也足以说明该国的金融市场,出现了严重问题,经济,出现了严重问题！ But this they were also noted by Soros, they did not have full take action, Thailand Government must intervene, after their fully take action, Thailand can Government have the resistivity? 而这也被索罗斯他们所注意到,他们还没全力出手呢,泰国政~府就已经必须干预了,那他们全力出手之后,泰国政~府还能有抵抗力吗？ Thailand bank, cannot put out to bring in money, the bad account and bad debt were too many. 泰国银行,也根本拿不出来钱,坏账、呆账太多了。 In these bad debts, a large part, is the bank Manager people, relaxes to appear to own relative and friend, these Manager people also believe that lends money to speculate in the stock market from bank, speculates in real estate, can definitely make money. 这些呆账中,很大一部分,是银行的经理人们,向自己的亲属、朋友放宽而出现的,这些经理人也认为,从银行借钱去炒股、去炒房,就肯定能赚钱。 Others make money, the person on one's own side, cannot certainly treat unjustly. Enough mortgage is unimportant, can lose money also? 别人都是那么赚钱的嘛,自己人,当然不能亏待了。没有足够的抵押不要紧,难道还能赔钱还不起吗？ In the family|home three people, can everyone supply two sets of buildings? Could not live in that many not to relate, this house was not used in any case, was used to fry. When 1-2 years, after rising, sell, can gain a house to come out much. 家里三口人,每人总要供两套楼吧？住不了那么多没关系,反正这房子也不是用来住的,是用来炒的。等一两年,涨起来后卖出去,就能多赚一套房子出来。 A little is very important, the Thai baht currency value, presented the serious overestimation, if not use the fixed rate of exchange, Thai baht already depreciated. 还有一点很重要,泰铢的币值,出现了严重的高估,如果不是采用固定汇率,泰铢早就贬值了。 All sorts of reasons, have caused the Thailand financial crisis, inevitable, even if no Soros they to involve, Thailand will also lead to the financial crisis. But Soros and Feng Yu their entries, let early, fierce of eruption this financial crisis broke out! 种种原因,导致了泰国的金融危机,不可避免,哪怕没有索罗斯他们介入,泰国也会爆发金融危机。只不过索罗斯和冯宇他们的进入,让这个金融危机爆发的更早了,爆发的更加剧烈！ ...... ……
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