Although the British government has not followed up directly, but they enter the parliament to quarrel the kicking up a racket pattern, scared many people. 尽管英国政府没有直接跟进,但他们进入议会吵吵吵模式,还是吓坏了很多人。 Slightly a little political intelligence knows, this is goes to whom. 稍微有点儿政治头脑的都知道,这是冲着谁去的。 Once lost the UK , France two grain consumption markets, the export amount that Austria benefits will sharply fall 1/6. 一旦丧失了英法两个粮食消费市场,奥地利的出口总额将会锐减六分之一。 The Russia person led by agriculture is more miserable, can preserve half of trade export volume, is God blesses. 以农业为主导的俄国人更惨,能保住一半的贸易出口额,都算是上帝保佑。 Under the frigid market competition, the productive forces backward Russia agriculture, because of the relations of production cost, will lose the market competitiveness directly. 在惨烈的市场竞争下,生产力落后的俄国农业,因为生产成本的关系,将直接丧失市场竞争力。 The Tsar government has not dared to promote the new agricultural technology, because the capacity is not equal to the income, the grain cannot sell, the high output is useless. 偏偏沙皇政府还不敢推广新农业技术,因为产能不等于收益,粮食卖不出去,再高的产量都是白搭。 Even the industrial upgrading, the Tsar government does not dare to do, this and Austria in previous agricultural crisis benefits similarly. 甚至连产业升级,沙皇政府都不敢搞,这和上一次农业危机中的奥地利差不多。 Limited to the domestic economic development level, the Franz development animal husbandry must relax, for fear that comes animal husbandry overcapacity again a time. 受限于国内经济发展水平,弗朗茨发展畜牧业都要悠着点儿走,生怕再来一次畜牧业产能过剩。 Raising livestock industry great development that Austria benefits, 2-3 years emerged recently. Primary cause because of economic development, the purchasing power enhancement of people. 奥地利的畜牧业大发展,还是最近2-3年才兴起的。主要原因还是因为经济发展,民众的购买力增强了。 First has the market demand, then has the commodity production. This order cannot do to invert, otherwise can make the big trouble. 先有市场需求,再有商品生产。这个顺序不能搞颠倒了,要不然会出大乱子的。 The Tsar government was anxious, the Vienna government was also anxious. But the Russia person really worries, the Vienna government sets the example. 沙皇政府急了,维也纳政府也急了。只不过俄国人是真着急,维也纳政府只是做做样子。 The diplomatic slogan shouted earthly-shaking, government operated fiercely like the tiger, the actual result was actually 0.5, seemed like falls into was thrown into confusion. 外交口号喊得惊天动地,政府一阵操作猛如虎,实际效果却是0.5,看起来就像是陷入了手忙脚乱中。 For example: After the French announced the ranch plan, the Vienna government announced: Suspends the aptitude examination of agricultural products processing enterprise. 比如说:在法国人宣布大农场计划后,维也纳政府就宣布:暂停农产品加工企业的资质审批。 When knew that the British Parliament starts to discuss whether follows up, the Vienna government issued again agriculture conversion notice, suggested that the people reduce the grain cultivation acreage, to deal agricultural crisis. 在得知英国议会开始讨论是否跟进的时候,维也纳政府再次发布了农业转型通知,建议民众削减粮食种植面积,以应对农业危机。 The direct sequela is, the domestic agricultural stock price drops sharply, some influence not big food manufacturer enterprises, followed to receive involvement. 直接后遗症就是,国内的农业公司股价大跌,就连一些影响不大的食品生产企业,也跟着受到了牵连。 Naturally, the economic crisis shortly , the present stock price was not just high in the past, falls also to fall not. 当然,经济危机刚过去没多久,现在的股价本来就不高,跌也跌不到哪里去。 To put it bluntly, the French also announced a plan, how to implement specifically, Paris government have not ravelled. 说白了,法国人也只是公布了一个计划,具体怎么实施,巴黎政府自己都还没弄明白。 The capitalists are not willing to invest, need the government personally on doing business at a loss business, was not said was so simple. 资本家不肯投资,必须要政府亲自上的赔本买卖,可不是说起来那么简单。 How to operate specifically, everyone does not have the experience. The government sends the official to manage directly, will greatly enhance the administrative cost, corrupt is also a major problem. 具体怎么操作,大家都没有经验。政府直接派官员去管理,会大幅度提高行政成本,腐败也是一个大问题。 If by some chance did the sky-high price grain finally, did the people unable to eat, that trouble was big. 万一最后搞出了天价粮食,搞得民众都吃不起,那就麻烦大了。 Contracting is seemingly simple to the capitalist, but the issue is the moral integrity of capitalist, is really is hard to make one feel relieved. 承包给资本家看似简单,可问题是资本家的节操,实在是难以令人放心。 With a empty shell project, deceives the subsidy of government, finally comes back to fill the pit from the overseas import inexpensive grain, the Paris government became the fool. 拿一个空壳项目,骗政府的补助,最后从国外进口廉价粮食回来填坑,巴黎政府就成冤大头了。 The regulation said simply, but the issue is the farm constructs in the colony, although the French government manages directly, but the day high Emperor far place, was doomed the central government controlling force to be insufficient. 监管说起来简单,可问题是农场建在殖民地,法国政府虽然直辖管理,但天高皇帝远的地方,就注定了中央政府控制力不足。 Besides the issue on management, in colony indigenous is also an issue that made one have a headache about. law is Africa is not Austria is Africa, most lands have Lord. 除了管理上的问题外,殖民地上的土著也是一个令人头疼的问题。法属非洲不是奥属非洲,大部分土地都是有主的。 Evading cannot avoid, can't place the desolate and uninhabited desert the farm? 避是避不开的,总不能把农场都放在荒无人烟的沙漠吧？ The desert agriculture to the 21 st century, in the research stage, nowadays the French could not have opened hanging. 沙漠农业到了21世纪,都处于研究阶段,这年头法国人还开不了挂。 The direct pursuit is not good, not a good colony to want the rocket to rise from all directions. Has learning from another's mistakes that Egypt rebelled, the French government has to be prudent. 直接驱逐也不行,一个不好殖民地又要狼烟四起。有了埃及叛乱的前车之鉴,法国政府不得不慎重。 After all the indigenous rebel army was good to cope, has the indigenous rebel army that the external force supported to be different. If comes several Egyptian rebellion again, the French government did not have money to carry out the ranch plan. 毕竟土著叛军好对付,有外力支持的土著叛军就不一样了。要是再多来几次埃及叛乱,法国政府也没钱搞大农场计划了。 So many issues need to consider, an operation is not good, the ranch plan of French will degenerate into the laughingstock. 这么多的问题需要考虑,一个操作不好,法国人的大农场计划就会沦为笑柄。 The English not to mention, understood that slightly the people of British Parliament know, one year or so can unify the opinion, that is the ultra level display. 英国人就更不用说了,稍微了解英国议会的人都知道,一年半载能够统一意见,那都是超水平发挥。 This grand strategy, quarrelled to have the possibility for several years. Especially the major grain producers, have mobilized oneself strength to lobby the British Parliament. 这种大战略,吵上三年五载都是有可能的。尤其是各大粮食生产国,都已经发动自己的力量在游说英国议会。 Many people are also anticipating overturn, even some people think: UK , France are waiting for a better price, use „grain self sufficient plan” to force suddenly Austria both countries to yield in the international politics. 很多人还期待着翻盘,甚至有人认为:英法只是在待价而沽,利用“粮食自足计划”逼迫俄奥两国在国际政治中让步。 The person who supports this view are many, including UK and France , many people thinks. 支持这个说法的人还不少,包括英法两国内部,都有不少人这么认为。 Vienna palace, with UK , France „grain self sufficient plan” spreading, Franz also felt the pressure. 维也纳宫,随着英法“粮食自足计划”的传出,弗朗茨也感受到了压力。 From the folk to the government, has one to negotiate the call of solution dispute with UK , France. 从民间到政府内部,都有一股和英法谈判解决纷争的呼声。 After all this keeps secret the plan, besides a small number of high levels, others knows nothing, having this matter is almost inevitable. 毕竟这是保密计划,除了少数高层外,其他人都是一无所知,发生这种事情几乎是必然的。 Affected by this, on August 16 , 1885, the Vienna government also noted UK , France in Austria to benefit the minister, conducted a thorough communication. 受此影响,1885年8月16日,维也纳政府还照会了英法驻奥地利公使,进行了一次深入沟通。 Reveals a meaning of compromise concessions after the Vienna government intentionally, thinks found Austria to benefit the soft rib UK , France, naturally must want a lion's share. 在维也纳政府故意露出一丝妥协让步的意思后,自以为找到了奥地利软肋的英法,自然要狮子大开口了。 Then did not have then, had no meeting of minds has no meeting of minds. Vienna Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in anxious and delimits in the water, the appearance work was done, in essence negotiations as before strong. 然后就没有然后了,谈不拢就谈不拢。维也纳外交部正处于焦急并划水中,样子工作做了很多,实质谈判中依旧强硬。 Franz unbelievable say/way: „Can the Russia person withdraw from the free trade system, the news determination?” 弗朗茨难以置信道:“俄国人要退出自由贸易体系,消息确定么？” The French have withdrawn from the free trade system, Republic also withdrew from the free trade system, if the Russia person withdraws from the free trade system again, it is estimated that this contraption must die in bed of old age/be exhausted. 法国人已经退出自由贸易体系了,合众国也退出了自由贸易体系,要是俄国人再退出自由贸易体系,估计这玩意儿就要寿终正寝了。 Foreign minister Wessenberg nods: „ Exactly said, the Russia person has the sign of withdrawal, may be the pretence that the Tsar government makes. 外交大臣韦森贝格点了点头:“确切的说,俄国人只是有退出的迹象,也有可能是沙皇政府打出的幌子。 Yesterday afternoon, Alexander III summoned British minister in Russia, planned to conduct the business on the grain of Britain self sufficient, finally to part on bad terms to come to an end. 昨天下午,亚历山大三世召见了英国驻俄公使,就不列颠的粮食自足计划进行了商业,最后以不欢而散告终。 This morning, the Russia Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent out the note to Britain, warned that the London government do not play with fire, accuses the grain self sufficient plan of English seriously to destroy the free trade system. 今天上午,俄国外交部就向不列颠发出了照会,警告伦敦政府不要玩火,指责英国人的粮食自足计划严重破坏了自由贸易体系。 If the English does not give up the grain planning self sufficient, then Russian Empire to British implementation trade sanction. ” 如果英国人不放弃粮食自足计划,那么俄罗斯帝国将对不列颠实施贸易制裁。” The destruction free trade system, probably possibly has, this must look to stand in whom in any case in the standpoint. 破坏自由贸易体系,大概可能有吧,反正这要看站在谁得立场上了。 Theoretically, so long as the English has not raised the tariff, by group political means suppression competitor, but adopts the way of fair competition, realizes the grain to plan self sufficient, that echoes the free trade spirit. 理论上来说,只要英国人没有提高关税,靠行政治手段打压竞争对手,而是采取公平竞争的方式,实现粮食自足计划,那就是附和自由贸易精神的。 Naturally, the attack British government invests to do the agriculture, interfered with the market normal development, is contrary to „freedom” principle, is passable. 当然,抨击英国政府出资搞农业,干涉了市场正常发展,有违“自由”原则,也说得过去。 After all Britain was flaunting words that „absolute freedom”, oneself said that was responsible. 毕竟不列颠可是标榜着“绝对自由”的,自己说出来的话,就要负责任。 But in this issue, can say on the Russia person, the Austria advantage does not have the right to speak. 只不过这个问题上,也就俄国人可以说说,奥地利更没有发言权。 From beginning to end, Franz has not sent the sound on this issue. Has to look, the issue is the Austria advantage does excessively. 从头到尾,弗朗茨都没有就这个问题发过声。不是没有看出来,问题是奥地利做得更过分。 It is not the state farm, that contraption does Austria benefit few also? Really thinks that in previous agricultural crisis, Austria benefits the grain capacity to reduce rapidly, was the people reduced the grain cultivation acreage on own initiative? 不就是国有农场,那玩意儿奥地利还少么？真以为上一次农业危机中,奥地利粮食产能迅速降低,就是民众主动削减了粮食种植面积？ Too naive! 太天真了！ More than ten million farmers, are most under the government summons also on 1/10 people, reduced some capacities, remaining should be how dry , to continue how dry/does. 上千万农民,在政府号召下最多也就十分之一的人,削减了部分产能,剩下的还是该怎么干,继续怎么干。 It is not the issue that is obedient, the key does not grow the grain, what making them plant? 不是听不听话的问题,关键是不种粮食,让他们种什么？ The industrial crop said simply, but that also needs the technology. Did not sow the seed, has certainly the harvest. 经济作物说起来简单,可那也是需要技术的。不是撒了种子,就一定有收获。 The grain price are most also falls, cannot sell out can also keep eating, or feeds the draft animal. 粮食价格最多也就下跌,卖不掉还可以自己留着吃,或者喂牲口。 Industrial crop, once the miscalculation cannot sell out, that can only in the waste land. 经济作物,一旦判断失误卖不掉,那就只能烂地里了。 Encouragement and promotion of government, promotes the vegetables planter in the city neighboring region, the remote mountain area cannot have scruples. 政府的鼓励、推广,也就在城市周边地区推广一下蔬菜种植,偏远山区根本就顾忌不到。 It is not the issue that thinks, the key Austria money pouch market economy, is not the planned economy, the government does not know in the market the demand of each industrial crop. 不是想不想的问题,关键奥地利是市场经济,不是计划经济,政府也不知道市场上每一种经济作物的需求量。 The decision-making power will give the bureaucrat with it, rather does the seething discontent among the people, Franz makes the people continue to plant the grain to consider as finished. 与其将决定权交给官僚,搞得天怒人怨,弗朗茨宁愿让民众继续种植粮食算了。 At the worst adjusts the capacity the issue, gives the state farm to do. Really does not know that this/should anything, lets land multi- fallow several years at the worst. 大不了调节产能的问题,交给国有农场来干。实在是不知道该种啥,大不了让土地多休耕几年。 After thinking deeply about a while time, Franz asked: „Probability that English compromises high?” 思索了一会儿功夫后,弗朗茨问道:“英国人妥协的几率有多高？” Tricks the English to the cliff near with great difficulty, missed the shooting to trample them, Franz does not think the English was pulled back. 好不容易才把英国人忽悠到悬崖边,就差临门一脚把他们踹下去了,弗朗茨可不想英国人又被拉了回来。 Other does not know, so long as the English starts the grain to plan self sufficient, must open year after year loss pattern, is fortunately more miserable than the French. 别的不知道,只要英国人启动粮食自足计划,就要开启长年累月的亏损模式,比法国人亏得都要惨。 By the free trade system limit, the grain of import various countries, Britain must treat impartially, and must continue now nearly in zero the low tariff. 受自由贸易体系限制,进口各国的粮食,不列颠都必须要一视同仁,并且还要延续现在近乎于零的低关税。 This means Britain, is impossible to support a little brother to work as the granary, benefits the agricultural product to squeeze out the market Austria. 这就意味着不列颠,不可能扶持一个小弟当粮仓,把奥地利农产品挤出市场。 Opens the farm in the colony, seems like that British does not have the difficulty, in fact cost actually low not. 在殖民地开辟农场,看似对英国人来说没有难度,实际上成本却低不了。 First is the population, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other areas, is typical vast territory with a sparse population. 首先就是人口,澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大等地区,都是典型的地广人稀。 Even the mechanical agriculture, that still needs a large number of labor forces. At least before starting construction hydraulic engineering and improvement traffic, to labor force demand low not. 就算是机械农业,那也需要大量的劳动力。至少在兴修水利工程、改善道路交通之前,对劳动力需求量低不了。 From the domestic recruitment labor, the light/only labor cost made the British government anxiety sufficiently, the amortization to the grain production cost, that absolutely was the sky-high price. 从国内招聘劳工,光人工成本就足以令英国政府肉疼,摊销到粮食生产成本上,那绝对是天价。 Without the barrier, this type of grain is the type more compensates many. It is estimated that compensates for several years later, the British People will realize the planter grain not „money way”. 没有壁垒,这种粮食是种得越多就赔得越多。估计赔上几年后,英国民众就会意识到种植粮食没有“钱途”。 After the opposition mounts the stage, will cut in two at the waist this losing money strategy, leaves behind one pile of rotten tail projects, to prove on incompetent of government. 等反对党上台后,就会腰斩掉这种赔钱战略,留下一堆烂尾工程,以证明上一届政府的无能。 Naturally the Indian population are many, and land is fertile, very suitable agricultural production ; The issue is the Indian were too many a point, here develops the agriculture, force-feeding the natives is an issue. 当然印度人口多,并且土地肥沃,非常适合农业生产;问题是印度人太多了一点,在这里发展农业,喂饱当地人都是一个问题。 It is estimated that does not wait for the support home, the grain that produces ate clean. First satisfies the home is not good, the key was the belly is hungry, others must revolt. 估计不等支援国内,生产出来的粮食就吃光了。优先满足国内也不是不行,关键是肚子饿极了,人家也是要造反的。 The front planter cotton, triggered a big revolt, now are many neighbor who suddenly Austria two moved in newly, at this time the British government does not dare to toss about absolutely carelessly. 前面种植棉花,都引发了一次大起义,现在还多了俄奥两个新搬来的邻居,这个时候英国政府绝对不敢胡乱折腾。 After pondering the moment time, Wessenberg reply slowly: „ Half to half! 沉思了片刻功夫后,韦森贝格缓缓的回答道:“一半对一半吧！ Although the Russia market looks very big, the purchasing power in fact is limited. This limited market, but also was occupied by us about 70%, what English minute/share of arriving is only some remnant thick soup cold roast/broil. 俄国市场虽然看起来很大,实际上的购买力却非常有限。这有限的市场,还被我们占据了近70%,英国人分到的只是一些残羹冷炙。 Even if lost the Russia market, the external trade total trade volume of English, most still falls 1-2 percentage points, this fluctuation English could not have withstood. 就算是丧失了俄国市场,英国人的对外出口贸易总额,最多也就下跌1-2百分点,这点儿波动英国人还承受得住。 However the British government does not crave the grain to plan self sufficient, Gladstone the option will give the parliament, the cabinet had not indicated the standpoint, fully explained this point. ” 但是英国政府并不热衷粮食自足计划,格莱斯顿将选择权交给了议会,内阁连立场都没有表明,就足以说明这一点。” This answer is equal to not having, half to half, this in the analysis and judgement, might as well said is gambling. 这个答案等于没有,一半对一半,这与其说是在分析判断,还不如说是在赌博。 Has to acknowledge, although the method of Russia person crude a little, but effect actually very good. 不得不承认,俄国人的手段虽然粗暴了一点儿,但效果却非常的不错。 The Tsar government makes the English have the probability that half give up. Normally, Austria benefits gives a strength again, finally the British Parliament overruled, or is the unlimited placement bill, matter also on the past. 沙皇政府都让英国人有一半放弃的几率。正常情况下,奥地利再出点儿力,最后英国议会就否决、或者是无限期的搁置议案,事情也就过去了。 The first even/including several plans, appear in the Franz mind, was given the veto by him. 一连几个方案,在弗朗茨的脑海中浮现,又被他给否决了。 „ Arrived present this step, we are not suitable to make anything again. “到了现在这一步,我们已经不适合再做什么了。 Then, on the performance of view people, Napoleon IV will not let go this opportunity. ” 接下来,就看法国人的表演了,想必拿破仑四世不会放弃这个机会。” Just said, Franz thought is not right. Does not know when from starts, Austria benefits the time that and enemy cooperates, unexpectedly the time of ratio and ally cooperation are much. 刚刚说完,弗朗茨就觉得不对劲了。不知道从什么时候开始,奥地利和敌人合作的时间,居然比和盟友合作的时间都多。 Actually this is loss of morals, is the humane distortion, is one is worth the issue that made one ponder. 这究竟是道德的沦丧,还是人性的扭曲,是一个值得令人思考的问题。 However what is certain, the operating mode that this opens is not right, gets down again, Franz must suspect can oneself also distinguish clearly the enemy friend. 不过可以肯定的是,这打开的操作方式不对,再这么下去,弗朗茨都要怀疑自己还能不能分清敌友了。 „In countries the eternal benefit, does not have eternal enemy”. Now the Franz approach, fully explains these words. “国家之间只有永恒的利益,没有永恒的敌人”。现在弗朗茨的做法,就充分阐释了这一句话。