HRE :: Volume #9

#804: In the crisis always follows the opportunity


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Since receives the French government intends to launch colony farm plan the news, the Vienna government high and low anxious. 自从收到法国政府有意启动“殖民地农场计划”的消息,维也纳政府上下都紧张了起来。 Until now, the agriculture is still Austria benefits the most important pillar industry, absorbed most employed population. 时至今日,农业依然是地利最重要的支柱产业,吸纳了最多的就业人口。 The international grain market capacity is limited, if were not the Austria advantage held the international agricultural summit meeting, the leadership formed the international farm exit|to speak alliance, the major grain producers controlled the volume of exports together, collaborated the formulation grain selling price, avoided the blind competition, everyone does not have the present auspicious day. 国际粮食市场容量有限,如果不是地利召开了国际农业峰会,主导建立了国际农产品出口联盟,各大粮食生产国一起控制出口量,联手制定粮食销售价格,避免恶性竞争,大家也没有现在的好日子。 However, all these establish under the premise of grain basic balance, any country enhances the grain capacity, will cause the market to shake. 不过,这一切都是建立在粮食供求基本平衡的前提下,任何一个国家提高粮食产能,都会引起市场震荡。 Franz: How many does French suit the development agriculture the colony to have?” 弗朗茨:“法国人适合发展农业的殖民地有多少?” Colonizes minister Steven to reply: „ According to the material inference that the colonizing section collects, only the law is Africa to have the farming of over a million square kilometers potential use, suits the agricultural production the fertile soil to have 500,000 square kilometers probably. 殖民大臣斯蒂芬回答道:“根据殖民部搜集到的资料推断,仅法属非洲就有上百万平方公里可开发利用的耕地,适合农业生产的沃土大概有五十万平方公里。 Mainly is distributed in law is the Algerian 210,000 square kilometer, the French protectorate in Morocco 120,000 square kilometer, the French protectorate of Tunisia 40,000 square kilometer and law to be the Egyptian 60,000 square kilometers...... ” 主要分布在法属阿尔及利亚21万平方公里、法属摩洛哥12万平方公里、法属突尼斯4万平方公里、法属埃及6万平方公里……” The natural environment and area of this time, are different from the later generation, the cultivated area has discrepancies is inevitable. 这个时代的自然环境、疆域,和后世都不一样,耕地面积有出入是必然的。 For example: Tunisia is UK and France carves up, Morocco is also flooding UK , France and Spain influence, the law is Egypt also to include half Sultan. 比如说:突尼斯就是英法两国瓜分的,摩洛哥也充斥着英法西三国势力,法属埃及还包括半个苏丹 Hears this answer, the look of people was more dignified. 听到这个答案,众人的神色更加凝重了。 So many places, did not say that develops completely, even develops 1/3, even is 1/5 comes out, the French can achieve self-sufficiently. 这么多地方,不说全部开发出来,就算是开发三分之一,甚至是五分之一出来,法国人就能够做到自给自足。 The desert empire is not the desert, is only the law is Africa to have so many fertile soil merely, if counted the other colonies of French overseas, it is estimated that this number can also turn time. 沙漠帝国也不全是沙漠,仅仅只是法属非洲就有这么多沃土,要是算上法国人海外的其它殖民地,估计这个数字还能够翻倍。 In the Franz benefit, the South China Peninsula is suitable to develop the agriculture, although far a little, but French related tax barrier. 弗朗茨的利益中,中南半岛就非常适合发展农业,虽然远了一点儿,但是法国人有关税壁垒。 So many lands, develop part casually, can create the destructive attack to the international grain market. 这么多土地,随便开发一部分,都能够给国际粮食市场造成毁灭性打击。 The French do not need to go out to fight for the international market, realizes the domestic self-sufficiency merely, made the international grain market crash sufficiently. 法国人都不需要出去抢夺国际市场,仅仅实现国内的自给自足,就足以令国际粮食市场崩盘。 Knows to turn over to know, the Vienna government now is also helpless. The French develop their land, Austria Lygon have no reason to interfere. 知道归知道,维也纳政府现在也无能为力。法国人开发自家的土地,地利根本就没有理由干涉。 After pondering the moment time, Franz said slowly: „ This is sooner or later matter, no great nation is willing to be under the control of others in the strategic security, the French is no exception. 沉思了片刻功夫后,弗朗茨缓缓说道:“这是早晚的事情,没有哪个大国愿意在战略安全上受制于人,法国人也不例外。 Even if not make money in the colony investment farm, so long as can guarantee the grain to be self-sufficient, the reduced foreign exchange drains, economically was gains. 就算是在殖民地投资农场不赚钱,只要能够保证粮食自给自足,减少外汇流失,经济上就是赚回来了。 Now can prevent the French, only then French. The agricultural investment is not the short time can see the return. 现在能够阻止法国人的,只有法国人自己。农业投资不是短时间就能够看到回报的。 Opens up the open land, to start construction the hydraulic engineering and path, these need massive earlier periods to invest, the business of losing money no one does. 开垦荒地、兴修水利工程、道路,这些都需要大量的前期投入,亏本的买卖没人做。 The capitalists are not definitely glad to invest, the colony farm development plan, can only pay by the French government. 资本家肯定不乐意投资,殖民地农场开发计划,就只能由法国政府来买单。 By the current situation, the French government is less wealthy, can spend the money of agricultural development with ease, in a short time they are still limited in the fund in the agriculture investing. 以目前的情况来看,法国政府远没有那么富裕,可以轻松拿出农业开发的钱,短期内他们在农业上投入的资金依然有限。 At least in 35 years, we do not need to worry that the international grain market will crash. Such long time, has been able to do many things. ” 至少在35年内,我们不用担心国际粮食市场会崩盘。这么长的时间,已经可以做很多事了。” Opened up wasteland not saying that perhaps opened a farmland to be very simple, burnt down the trees and weeds, one handled the land leveling again. 开荒不是说说而已,或许开辟一片农田很简单,一把火烧掉树木、杂草,再把土地平整一下就搞定了。 Is liberal except for some extremely few natural conditions, outside the water-abundant area, most areas need to start construction the water conservation. 除了极少部分自然条件优渥,水源充足的地区外,大多数地区都是需要兴修水利的。 The grain planted, did not finish. If cannot transport/fortune the sale, the grain that even if piles up, does not have any value. 粮食种出来了,也不是结束。如果不能运出去销售,即便是堆积如山的粮食,也不具备任何价值。 Synthesizes various factors, 35 years are very optimistic. It is estimated that also on the coastal area, can produce a achievement, the inland area ten years eight years, may not develop. 综合各方面因素来说,三五年已经很乐观了。估计也就沿海地区,能够出点儿成果,内陆地区十年八年,都不一定能够开发出来。 Has the cushion time, has not made the people optimistic. The disaster will erupt, is only sooner or later issue. 有缓冲时间在,并没有让众人乐观起来。灾难还是会爆发,只是早晚的问题。 Foreign minister Wessenberg proposed: „ This is not we matter, perhaps holds the news, the effect will be better. 外交大臣韦森贝格提议道:“这已经不是我们一家的事情,或许把消息捅出去,效果还会更好一些。 If can draw agricultural export alliance all member nations, brings the pressure on the French together, may have the unexpected harvest. ” 如果能够拉着农业出口联盟所有成员国,一起向法国人施加压力,或许会有意想不到的收获。” Without a doubt, is responsible for exerting pressure is mainly suddenly Austria both countries, other alliance members can also wave the flag and shout. 毫无疑问,负责施压的主要是俄两国,其它联盟成员也就能够摇旗呐喊。 Compels the French to make concessions, no doubt is happy. However is less likely, if compromises easily, France did not have the means to mix in continental Europe. 逼法国人退让,固然皆大欢喜。不过可能性不大,要是这么轻易就妥协,法兰西也没办法在欧洲大陆上混了。 Prime Minister Carl shakes the head: „ Does not need, this matter cannot keep secret. The colony farm plan of French wants opening, everyone knew. 卡尔首相摇了摇头:“没必要,这种事情保不了密。法国人的殖民地农场计划只要一开启,大家就都知道了。 If the international grain price crashes immediately, we truly are the biggest victims, how many year of cushions but doesn't this have? 如果国际粮食价格立即崩盘,那我们确实是最大的受害者,但这不是有几年时间缓冲么? Although the grain capacity of native place is still growing, but this increases the scope merely only then less than 1.5%, but the grain consumption growth of domestic market actually Gundam/reaches as high as 4.7%. 本土的粮食产能虽然还在增长中,但是这个增加幅度仅仅只有不到百分之一点五,而国内市场的粮食消耗量增速却高达百分之四点七。 If not Near East development plan starts, in the future the grain capacity may grow continually, perhaps could not need ten years, our grain capacity only enough satisfied native place needed. 如果不是近东开发计划启动,未来粮食产能可能持续增长,或许要不了十年,我们的粮食产能就只够满足本土所需了。 At present the processed grain that we exit|to speak, most unprocessed food grains import from the Russia person hand, if presents the grain overcapacity again, at the worst undercuts the unprocessed food grains purchase price to pass the burden the loss. 目前我们出口的成品粮,大部分原粮都是从俄国人手中进口的,要是再次出现粮食产能过剩,大不了压低原粮收购价格转嫁损失。 A powerful Russian Empire does not serve our benefits, happen to interrupts the development of Russia person using the French. 一个强大的俄罗斯帝国不符合我们的利益,正好利用法国人打断俄国人的发展。 If possible, best also wrap/sets the English. 如果可能的话,最好把英国人也套进去。 UK , France implement the grain to plan simultaneously self sufficient, the international grain importing market can atrophy half, happen to make everyone feel the might of agricultural crisis directly well. ” 英法同时实施粮食自足计划,国际粮食进口市场能够直接萎缩一半,正好让大家好好感受一下农业危机的威力。” The grain consumption speed-up is various reasons causes greatly, the most direct reason was the population grows, increased the grain consumption. 粮食消耗量增速大是多方面原因导致的,最直接的原因就是人口增长,增加了粮食消耗量。 Next is the people's lives level increasingly enhances, everyone's consumption level is also improving, most typical is the meat product spends increases high-speed. 其次是民众生活水平日益提高,大家的消费水平也在提高,最典型的就是肉制品消费高速增加。 Affected by this, every year serves as the feed the grain also in the rapid growth, the yearly rate surpasses 5%. 受此影响,每年用做饲料的粮食也在高速增长,年增长率超过百分之五。 Finally is the industrial grain increases, including the medicine, chemical industry, alcohol, starch many industries, is growing to the demand of grain continually. 最后是工业用粮增加,包括医药、化工、酒精、淀粉等多个行业,对粮食的需求量都在持续增长。 The demand growth is swift and violent, was not equal to that the capacity can also grow swiftly and violently. In fact, erupts after the agricultural crisis, the Vienna government has been encouraging to plant the industrial crop. 需求增长迅猛,不等于产能也能够迅猛增长。事实上,从农业危机爆发后,维也纳政府一直都在鼓励种植经济作物。 It is not Franz does not know the importance of grain, but Austria benefits really does not lack the grain , to continue to increase the capacity the consequence is the hurting famers with low grain price, even is directly rotten in the place. 不是弗朗茨不知道粮食的重要性,但是地利真的不缺粮食,继续增加产能的后果就是谷贱伤农,甚至是直接烂在地里。 Otherwise the agricultural export alliance establishes, it is estimated that now is also in the agricultural crisis, everyone together milk toward river but in actually. 要不然农业出口联盟建立,估计现在都还处于农业危机中,大家一起把牛奶往河里倒。 Naturally, winning over the Russia person is also one of the reasons. 当然,拉拢俄国人也是原因之一。 The grain that Russian Empire exits every year, exceeded the percentage 90 to flow in Austria to benefit, half of after nearly grain processing were completed, finally backflowed Russian sale. 俄罗斯帝国每年出口的粮食,超过百分九十都流入了地利,其中近一半粮食加工完成后,最后又回流到了俄罗斯销售。 suddenly Austria Union can continue, the folk relations remain friendly, in fact also establishes above the benefit. 同盟能够延续下来,民间关系一直保持友好,实质上也是建立在利益之上的。 Usually the alliance in benefit, often is stablest, however suddenly Austria this relations are actually the exception. 通常来说利益上的联盟,往往是最稳固的,然而俄这种关系却是例外。 If some day of Russia person completed the Industrial Revolution, the processing industrial development of native place, the grain benefit chain also broke. 假如某一天俄国人完成了工业革命,本土的加工产业发展了起来,粮食利益链也就断了。 However this is the future matter, in a short time does not need to be worried. 不过这是未来的事情,短时间内不需要担心。 Under infrastructure imperfect background, the aristocrat masters of Tsar government, likes being the ore boss and big landlord of government subsidy to farmers in drought or raining incidents, does not crave to the risk huge industry. 在基础设施不完善的背景下,沙皇政府的贵族老爷们,还是喜欢做旱涝保收的矿老板、大地主,对风险巨大的工业并不热衷。 Franz is clear, these are only the reasons in surface. Ten years later, Near East development plan also almost should be completed, Austria benefits in the true sense the situation has become. 弗朗茨清楚,这些都只是表面上的原因。十年之后,近东开发计划也差不多该完成了,地利真正意义上大势已成。 By that time, the German unification process should also put on the agenda. Breaks the matter that the situation draws the hatred on own initiative, the Vienna government will not do. 到了那个时候,德意志统一进程也该提上日程。主动打破局势拉仇恨的事情,维也纳政府是不会干的。 Austria benefits has not selected the ability of European world only, instigated the relations of various European countries, needed. 地利还没有单挑欧洲世界的能力,挑拨欧洲各国的关系,就非常有必要了。 French's colony development plan, truly infringes the benefit that Austria benefitted, is compared with the national strategy, the temporary loss is acceptable. 法国人的殖民地开发计划,确实损害了地利的利益,可是和国家战略相比,暂时的损失还是可以接受的。 Adroitly guides action according to circumstances, the agitation English joins, seems like that UK , France realized the grain to be self sufficient, the national strategic security was no longer limited, in fact also made them stand in the opposite of Russia person. 因势利导,鼓动英国人加入进去,看似英法实现了粮食自足,国家战略安全不再受限制,实际上也让他们站在了俄国人的对立面。 Moved the Russia person cheese, related to several million people of benefits, the Tsar government wants with UK France Station in the same place, the Russia people not to comply even. 动了俄国人奶酪,涉及到了几千万人的利益,沙皇政府就算是想和英法站在一起,俄国民众也不会答应。 Is too high at probabilities of enemy three failure, by an enemy two, by two enemies two, or simply one-to-one, the odds of success considerably increased. 以一敌三失败的几率太高,以一敌二、以二敌二,或者干脆一对一,胜算就大大增加了。 As a mature monarchy, Franz thought can not go to war, good that best do not go to war. 作为一名成熟的君主,弗朗茨还是觉得能不打仗,最好还是不要打仗的好。 Prime minister said well, the French must develop the colony, we cannot block, does not need to block. “首相说得不错,法国人要开发殖民地,我们根本就拦不住,也没有必要去拦。 Ministry of Foreign Affairs sets the example, making the outside world know that our unusual disaffection, best is to make the English feel that the French this stroked on our soft rib. 外交部做做样子,让外界知道我们非常的不满,最好是让英国人觉得法国人这一击打在了我们的软肋上。 Induces the London government to join, artificially causes the most serious agricultural crisis, for our next strategic creation opportunity. ” 诱导伦敦政府加入进来,人为制造一起最严重的农业危机,为我们的下一步战略创造机会。” The agricultural crisis is not fun, if really happened, the grain exporter no doubt loses greatly, the UK , France two participants absolutely will not be relaxed. 农业危机可不是什么好玩儿的,真要是发生了,粮食出口国固然损失巨大,英法两个参与者也绝对不会轻松。 The French are good, the related tax barrier protection, the Paris government will not make the domestic grain price crash. 法国人还好,有关税壁垒保护,巴黎政府是不会让国内粮食价格崩盘的。 The English troubled, the free trade is always a double-edged sword, while enjoying the free trade brings the benefit, must undertake the negative effect that it brings. 英国人就麻烦了,自由贸易从来都是一把双刃剑,在享受自由贸易带来利益的同时,也必须要承担它所带来的负面效应。 With the attitude of English, agricultural crisis, once erupts, the earlier investment threw away carelessly completely, congressional that group of masters will order the government to secure against loss. 以英国人的作风,农业危机一旦爆发,前期的投资就全部打水漂了,国会那帮老爷们会勒令政府止损。 The consumption wealth matter is small, the key is the political turbulence, can delay the British government to make the policy-making the time, this benefits the following plan to be advantageous to Austria. 消耗钱财事小,关键是政治上的动荡,能够拖延英国政府做出决策的时间,这对地利接下来的计划非常有利。
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