20 xx year on March 18, engine ground roll countdown, 64 hours. 20xx年3月18日,发动机地面试车倒计时,64小时。 In that side of sea, an emergency enlarged meeting is convening, participates in the conference besides the people in strategic analysis office, many were invited the relevant area experts who participates in similarly. 在海的那一边,一场紧急的扩大会议正在召开,参与会议的除了战略分析办公室的众人之外,还有许多同样受邀参加的相关领域的专家学者。 Their this conference subjects only then one, that is analyzes time the program information of Huaxia decorated sedan chair team latest decipher, formulates the countermeasure, simultaneously will prepare for the negotiations of forthcoming Nantianmen project. 他们这一次的会议议题只有一个,那就是对华夏花轿项目组最新解密的项目信息进行分析,制定应对策略,同时为即将到来的南天门项目的谈判做准备。 First what spoke was in the expert group a scholar named Jenie, his age has crossed 60 years old, was the navigation sends the veteran expert in domain, technically and has the forte in the overall situation vision. 首先发言的是专家组中一个名叫杰尼的学者,他的年龄已经过了60岁,是航发领域内的老牌专家,无论是在技术上、还是在全局眼界上都有着过人之处。 „, Situation everyone has been clear, the decorated sedan chair team of opposite party publicized their latest progress.” “咳,情况大家都已经清楚了,对方的花轿项目组公开了他们的最新进展。” „According to the public information, they have completed the Nantianmen project and first objective of decorated sedan chair sub-item, that trial produces successfully the first high bypass commercial aviation engine.” “按照公开的信息来看,他们已经完成了南天门项目、花轿子项目的第一个阶段性目标,那就是试制成功了第一款大涵道比的商用航空发动机。” „Currently speaking, we to the parameter and performance of this model of engine also know nothing, but according to the technology advancement the inherent technology base of rule and opposite party infers, here has some following judgments.” “目前来说,我们对这款发动机的参数和性能还一无所知,不过按照技术进步规律和对方的固有技术基础来推断,我这里有如下的一些判断。” After several words saying, Jenie carried the coffee cup to drink one, then continued saying: 几句话说完之后,杰尼端起咖啡杯喝了一口,然后继续开口说道: „First the first point, I think that the engine of opposite party is not a surface engineering, but can use and even achieve the mature manufactured products of batched production actually, this point is without a doubt.” “首先第一点,我认为对方的发动机并不是一個表面工程,而是实际能够使用、甚至已经达到了批量化生产的成熟的工业产品,这一点是毋庸置疑的。” „I think, everyone present may say, is impossible in such a short time to make a model of mature high bypass engine by the technological strength of opposite party, but I want to tell you am, our intelligence systems have not basically become effective to Huaxia, therefore we do not know that they hid in the spear/gun that in the pocket has not shown put several bullets.” “我想,在座的各位有可能会说,以对方的技术实力不可能在这么短的时间内就制造出一款成熟的大涵道比发动机,但是我想告诉你们的是,我们的情报系统对华夏是基本没有生效的,所以我们并不知道他们藏在口袋里没有示人的枪里装了几颗子弹。” „We should consider from the most serious situation, what preinstall in their pocket is heavy-caliber Colt pistol that packed six rounds of bullets.” “我们应该从最严重的情况来考虑,预设他们口袋里的是一把装满了六发子弹的大口径柯尔特手枪。” „Only by doing so, we can after the highest vigilance deals the possible unexpected situation.” “只有这样,我们才能以最高的警惕性来应对之后可能发生的意外情况。” „Regarding this viewpoint, everyone has the different opinions?” “对于这个观点,各位有没有不同意见？” Jenie is looking all around all around, just as he expected, in the entire conference site no one shakes the head, this made him feel slightly happily some. 杰尼环顾着四周,正如他所预料的一样,整个会场里没有任何人摇头,这让他稍稍感受到了一些欣慰。 In the recent years, one's own side regarding the vigilance of opposite party, although had very big promotion, but actually has not technically changed to their contempt, the domestic scientific researchers always think oneself are also mastering the world's most advanced technology, is grasping the authority of entire science and technology, however they have not actually thought that this situation had long ago been changing quietly. 最近几年以来,己方对于对方的警惕性虽然有了很大的提升,但在技术上对他们的轻视却始终没有改变,国内的科研人员总以为自己还掌握着世界上最先进的技术,掌握着整个科技的权柄,然而他们却从来没有想过,这种情况在很久以前就已经悄悄地在发生改变了。 But now, under opposite party advanced technology several times impact, this situation had certain new face. 而现在,在对方先进技术接连几次的冲击下,这种情况有了一定的改观。 This is a good deed. 这是一件好事。 Only then realized that own issue, can continue to go forward unceasingly. 只有认识到了自己的问题,才能不断地继续前进。 A moment later, he continues saying: 片刻之后,他继续说道: „Above is my first inference, this inference bases on the non- technical point, then I must say will be the judgment of technical point.” “上面是我的第一个推断,这个推断是基于非技术层面的,接下来我要讲的将是技术层面的判断。” „Currently the opposite party mainly has several bottlenecks in aircraft engine domain, these bottlenecks are as follows: Material and processing line and craft, packaging technique and analog simulation technology.” “目前对方在航空发动机领域主要有几个瓶颈,这些瓶颈分别是:材料、加工流程和工艺、组装技术和模拟仿真技术。” „I as a scholar, from my technical background, what these bottleneck opposite party are most likely to break through is the material and emulation technique two aspects. The breakthroughs in these two aspects, will greatly promote them to send the domain technical standards in the navigation.” “我作为一名学者,从我的技术经验来看,这几个瓶颈对方最有可能突破的是材料和仿真技术两个方面。这两个方面的突破,也会大大提升他们在航发领域的技术水平。” „It is well known, the opposite party has the publicized cj-1000 ax high bypass engine project, its goal thrust force is 25 tons.” “众所周知,对方目前存在已公开的cj-1000ax大涵道比发动机项目,其目标推力是25吨。” „, After the influence of overlay technological breakthrough, I believes that the motor power of opposite party project should in 30 to 50 tons, the maximum not over 50 tons.” “那么,在叠加技术突破的影响之后,我认为,对方此次项目的发动机推力应该在30到50吨之间,最高不会超过50吨。” „This is I based on the judgment that the technology development objective law makes. Although this thrust force seems like not advanced, but I also want to remind everyone, we most advanced ge-9 x commercial aviation engine, the peak value thrust force also only has 80 tons merely.” “这是我基于技术发展客观规律做出的判断。虽然这个推力看起来似乎并不先进,但我也想提醒各位,我们最先进的ge-9x商用航空发动机,峰值推力也仅仅只有80吨。” „However we break through from 40 tons to 80 tons, the time of actually costing is ten years.” “而我们从40吨突破到80吨,其实所耗费的时间不过是十年而已。” „This in other words, the navigation of opposite party sends the technology with our disparities, has pulled closer for 10 years from 19 30, but actual hour that they spend, actually only then less than 5 years.” “这也就是说,对方的航发技术与我们的差距,已经从30年拉近到了十年,而他们所花费的实际时间,其实只有不到五年而已。” „Therefore, based on the above two judgments, my suggestion is, we must positive start the cooperation in the limited range with the opposite party, and do not mind the gain or loss in a short time.” “所以,基于以上的两条判断,我的建议是,我们应当在有限范围内积极与对方展开合作,并且不要介意短时间内的利益得失。” „So long as we can achieve the cooperation, then means, we at least can develop with the opposite party synchronously, maintains the final ten years of disparity no longer to reduce.” “只要我们能够达成合作,那么就意味着,我们至少可以与对方同步发展,保持最后的十年差距不再缩短。” „This is my suggestion, whether some different opinions?” “这就是我的建议,是否有不同意见？” Jenie looks all around again, this time, the hand lifted. 杰尼再一次环顾四周,这一次,有一只手举了起来。 Is Ison, the head in this strategic analysis office. 是艾森,本届战略分析办公室的负责人。 After the confirmation can speak, Ison said with the somewhat low and deep sound: 确认可以发言之后,艾森用有些低沉的声音说道: „Mr. Jenie, I respects, and believes your specialization, but, from my intuition, this you possibly underestimated the opposite party time.” “杰尼先生,我尊重并且相信您的专业性,但是,从我的直觉来看,这一次你可能还是低估了对方。” „Do you still remember previous time the failure on the chip? At that time, we also are think that the technology of opposite party in advance will not be many, but finally? What they take is the 3 nm technology, because we underprepared to be hit by the opposite party are caught off guard.” “你还记得上一次在芯片上我们的失败吗？那时候,我们也同样是认为对方的技术并不会超前太多,可最后呢？他们拿出来的是3nm技术,而我们因为准备不足被对方打得措手不及。” „How many markets on chip we had lost, the same mistake do we also want to violate one again?” “芯片上我们已经失去了多少市场,难道同样的错误我们还要再犯一遍吗？” Listens to his words, Jenie sighed. 听完他的话,杰尼叹了口气。 This Ison, had been scared by the opposite party probably. 这个艾森,大概是已经被对方吓傻了。 He was too young, after experiencing 1-2 failure, the mentality had changed, even started to talk about the so-called intuition in such important conference. 他还是太年轻了,在经历了1-2失败之后,心态就已经发生了变化,甚至开始在这样重要的会议上大谈所谓的直觉了。 This absolutely is not the matter that a policy-maker should handle. 这绝对不是一个决策者应该做的事情。 Thinks of here, Jenie says: 想到这里,杰尼开口说道: „Ison, I understands your worry, but, I must remind you, aircraft engine and chip are entirely different, the latter also has the possibility, because the intensive technological breakthrough has the significant development to progress suddenly, but in aircraft engine domain, is absolutely impossible.” “艾森,我明白你的担忧,但是,我同时也要提醒你,航空发动机和芯片是全然不同的,后者还有可能因为一时间密集的技术突破而产生重大发展进步,但在航空发动机领域,绝对不可能。” „Like me said that they possibly truly made the breakthrough in some aspect, but other aspects? The turbofan blade design and heat insulation tbc coating and structural strength design and assemble process, are as for the common difference control and thermal element design, these need the rich experience and technical accumulation can realize.” “就像我说的,他们可能在某一个方面确实取得了突破,但其他方面呢？涡扇叶片设计、隔热tbc涂层、结构强度设计、装配流程、乃至于公差控制、热元件设计,这些都是需要有丰富的经验和技术积累才能实现的。” „Even if I give them a blueprint now, you think that they can duplicate the engine? Is impossible.” “哪怕我现在把一份图纸交给他们,你以为他们就能复制出发动机了吗？不可能的。” „They must have the cold hot binary chart, to have the manufacture documents, to have the material distribution documents, to have the fan blade model building...... in brief, affected an engine performance the target is too many, I do not believe that they can make the breakthrough one time.” “他们得拥有冷热双态图、拥有制造文档、拥有材料分布文档、拥有扇叶建造模型......总之,影响一台发动机性能的指标太多了,我不相信他们能一次性取得突破。” „Therefore, I still insisted that perhaps my viewpoint, that is, the opposite party had very big progress, but this progress will not achieve to affect our dominant position the degree, therefore we cannot for the later negotiations preinstall too many resources and conditions.” “所以,我仍然坚持我的观点,那就是,对方也许有了很大的进步,但这种进步并不会达到能影响我们统治地位的程度,所以我们也不能为之后的谈判预设太多的资源和条件。” „Like me said that what we can conceive in the opposite party pocket the attire is Colt revolver that filled up the bullet, but we cannot conceive in the pocket is the m416 assault rifle, because no pocket can install the rifle, this is the objective law.” “就像我说的,我们可以设想对方口袋里装的是一把填满了子弹的柯尔特转轮手枪,可我们不能设想口袋里的是m416突击步枪,因为没有一个口袋是可以装下步枪的,这是客观规律。” Listens to Jenie's words, Ison shakes the head again. 听完杰尼的话,艾森再次摇头。 He wanted saying that anything refuted, but could not find the argument at once, finally has some unwilling hearts saying: 他想要说些什么来反驳,可是一时之间又找不到论据,最后只好有些不甘心地说道: „Perhaps, they not only can pull out the pistol and rifle from the pocket, even can also pull out the anti-tank guided missile?” “也许,他们不仅能从口袋里掏出手枪、步枪,甚至还能掏出反坦克导弹呢？” This saying says, everyone in conference site smiled. 这话一说出口,会场里的所有人都笑了起来。 No one listens to his suggestion truly attentively, in these person of eyes, a oneself anxiety can crash, anxiety the fool who can rewind in the sea to be the same in the stars probably. 没有人真正用心去听他的建议,在这些人眼里,自己就好像一个忧虑于星辰会坠落、忧虑于海洋会倒卷的蠢蛋一样。 Ison sighed, again silent. 艾森叹了口气,重新沉默了下去。 He already not that arguing strongly based on reason frame of mind. 他已经没有那种据理力争的心气了。 It can be said that, in that several words he has said. 能说的,在刚才的那几句话里他都已经说完。 Since no one hear, he did not have other means. 既然没有人听,那他也就没有了别的办法。 Just, in his at heart, him still believes firmly, in the pocket of this flock of rabbits installs, not only absolutely the revolver is so simple. 只不过,在他的心里,他仍旧坚定地认为,这群兔子的口袋里装的,绝对不只是左轮手枪那么简单。