Indeed, opportunity of black butterfly win already very uncertain. 的确,黑蝴蝶取胜的机会已经十分渺茫。 In neurasthenia this in-game, the advantage in memory ability is the most direct-viewing advantage, this point...... the black butterfly is unable to place on a par with Feng Bujue. 在神经衰弱这个游戏中,记忆能力上的优势即是最直观的优势,这一点……黑蝴蝶是无法和封不觉相提并论的。 However, can control the victory and defeat factor, that is...... the luck. 不过,能左右胜负的因素还有一个,那就是……运气。 that round, although Feng Bujue took 24 points boldly, but just as he said that in it „remembers absolutely” in foundation, such took minute/share not too to be exaggerating from the probability study. 刚才的那一轮,虽然封不觉豪取24分,但正如他自己所说,在其“绝对记忆”的基础上,这样的取分从概率学上来说也不算太夸张。 Except that must beyond 9 points, the remaining scores can regard as „in the turning sign that six probabilities gradually reduce, succeeded five times” case, but „probability that this gradually cuts”, approximately from about 20% has fallen to 7%, later terminates. 除去那必得的九分外,剩下的分数可以视为“六次概率逐渐降低的翻牌中,有五次成功了”的案例,而这个“逐步降低的概率”,大约是从20%左右一直降到7%,随后终止的。 Looking at it like this, he...... should be able to sum up at the matter that in this round does to „luck is good” the category. 这样看来,他在这一轮中所做的事……应该可以归结到“运气还不错”的范畴。 There is no special place, therefore this is not „gambling”, is only „game”, by Jue Bro is thought is „senseless” game. 这并没有什么特别之处,所以这不是“赌博”,只是“游戏”,被觉哥认为是“无趣”的游戏。 Moreover, when these round ended, his seems like „good” luck, in fact had transformed the wind direction...... 另外,当这一轮结束时,他那看似“不错”的运气,实际上已经转变了风向…… Because Feng Bujue final three turning out signs, is „has a variety had been revealed” the sign completely ; In other words, when his Jiang Fan power changes hands finally, on desktop „known two sign” quantity, increased to six pairs from three pairs. 因为封不觉最后三手翻出的牌,全部都是“已有一张花色被揭示过”的牌;也就是说,当他最后将翻牌权易手时,桌面上的“已知两相牌”数量,又从三对增加到了六对。 In addition when the unknown sign on table drops...... the opposite party turns the unknown sign now again, turns to be possible the probability of score sign once again to promote over 15%. 再加上桌上的未知牌又有所减少……对方现在再去翻未知牌时,翻到可得分牌的概率又一次提升到了15%以上。 ............ ………… The 11 th round, the black butterfly turns the round of sign. 第十一轮,黑蝴蝶翻牌的回合。 After Jue Bro cleaned up the desktop, the remaining known sign numbers are not many, therefore the varieties of black butterfly to these signs also had confidence. 在觉哥清理了桌面之后,剩下的已知牌数量已然不多,所以黑蝴蝶对那些牌的花色也就更有把握了。 Is first-hand, she still according to oneself rhythm, opened stretch/open new in distance known sign near position. 第一手,她依然是按照自己的节奏,在距离已知牌较近的位置翻开了一张新牌。 Finally, this was one „two already clear(ly)” the sign, namely „may score sign”. 结果,这是一张“两相已明”的牌,即“可得分牌”。 The black butterfly may not have Feng Bujue that type „to remember obviously, but I can keep slow point is using again” the ample force, she definitely has the open goal to take the minute/share. 黑蝴蝶可没有封不觉那种“明明记得,但我可以留着慢点儿再用”的余力,她肯定是一有得分机会就会去拿分的。 Therefore, she then looks for new Fan immediately other two......, and succeeded. 因此,她立刻回头去找新翻牌的另外两相……并且成功了。 „This woman three points.” Announcement of referee also transmits instantly, „you can continue to turn the sign.” “这位女士得三分。”裁判的宣告也即刻传来,“您可以继续翻牌。” Next, situation still...... 下一手,情况依然…… The black butterfly turned out one to be possible the score sign, she also rapidly its transformation for score. 黑蝴蝶又翻出了一张可得分牌,她也迅速地将其转化为了分数。 Again next, is so...... 再下一手,还是如此…… Then, the black butterfly tied the score calm, moreover...... as a result of the reduction of card sign number, similarly is in the known sign, only then in three pairs of situations, she in next the probability of turning to may the score sign is higher than 7%. 就这样,黑蝴蝶波澜不惊地将分数追平了,而且……由于卡牌数量的减少,同样是已知牌中只有三对的情况下,她在下一手翻到可得分牌的概率是高于7%的。 „...... How?” At this time, the black butterfly said to Jue Bro with a smile, „I didn't have the opportunity?” “呵……怎么样？”这时,黑蝴蝶笑着对觉哥道,“我也并不是完全没机会吧？” „Snort...... the disparity on this luck, before the showdown starts I have the preparation.” Feng Bujue should say indifferently, „in brief...... before achieving ‚that score’, is casual you to turn many to be good.” “哼……这种运气上的差距,早在对决开始前我就已经有心理准备了。”封不觉淡然应道,“总之……在达到‘那个分数’之前,随便你翻多少都行。” „That score?” Black butterfly hears word, thought for two seconds, meets saying that „Oh~ you say...... 33 points?” “那个分数？”黑蝴蝶闻言,思索了两秒,接道,“哦~你是说……33分？” The black butterfly before the showdown starts without doubt also carefully studied the game rule, therefore she knows that- 33 points, is a very essential score. 黑蝴蝶在对决开始前无疑也是仔细地研究了游戏规则的,所以她知道-33分,是一个非常关键的分数。 According to rule, after both sides total reveal „25”, the player then can through turning out two „extremely happy Pure Land” ended the competition, is in the settlement stage. 根据规则,在双方共计揭示出“二十五相”后,玩家便可以通过翻出两张“极乐净土”来结束比赛,进入结算阶段。 Then, regardless that disparity disparate victory and defeat, takes both sides to have certain score match for instance...... 25 to analyze is 12 pairs 13, or 11 pairs of 14 situations. 那么,撇开那种差距悬殊的胜负不谈,以双方都有一定得分的对局为例……二十五相可以拆分为十二对十三,或者十一对十四的情况。 In 12 pairs of 13 situations, the score ratio is 36 : 39, at this time, falls the rear area to turn out extremely happy Pure Land, in addition the extra 10 points, 46 : 39, then turn defeat into victory. 在十二对十三的情况下,分数比为36比39,此时,落后方翻出极乐净土,加上额外的十分,46比39,即可反败为胜。 In 11 pairs of 14 situations, the score ratio is 33 : 42, at this time, falls the rear area to turn out extremely happy Pure Land, in addition the extra 10 points, 43 : 42, turn defeat into victory similarly. 在十一对十四的情况下,分数比为33比42,此时,落后方翻出极乐净土,加上额外的十分,43比42,同样反败为胜。 In other words, in this in-game, fell a leeward side, to overturn, the preconditions, that at least must attain „11”, this satisfies the minimal overturn condition. 也就是说,在这场游戏中,落了下风的一方,若想要翻盘,有一个先决条件,那就是至少得拿到“十一相”,这才满足最低限度的翻盘条件。 But theoretically the most ideal situation is: On the desktop already reveals 24 the round, is one's turn the backwardness that side to turn the sign, in it turns out 25 th instance, the expert grasps 33 points, then...... he / she turns out „extremely happy Pure Land” again, finished our bureau. 而理论上最理想的情况就是:在桌面上已揭示二十四相的回合,轮到落后的那一方翻牌,在其翻出第二十五相的瞬间,正好手握33分,然后……他/她再翻出“极乐净土”,结束本局。 Regarding falling rear area, this is the quickest best overturn pattern. Perhaps if continues to tow...... the disparity of score to be pulled open gradually, when works as on the desktop the surplus unknown signs already are not many, turns to may the probability of score sign considerably increase, turned to two continuously „one clear(ly)” the sign probability is not impossible, at that time, the memory was stronger and made mistakes a less side, the score rate affirmation constant voltage opponent plans. 对于落后方来说,这是最快最佳的翻盘模式。假如继续拖下去……分数的差距恐怕会逐步被拉开,因为当桌面上剩余的未知牌已不多时,翻到可得分牌的概率会大大增加,连续翻到两张“一相明”的牌概率也不是不可能了,那时,记忆力更强、犯错更少的一方,得分率肯定稳压对手一筹。 „Since you know.” The Feng Bujue's tone seems very relaxed, the opponent knows this number the meaning also should be in any case, does not need to exclaim in surprise, „that please toward this direction diligently.” “既然你知道。”封不觉的语气还是显得很轻松,反正对手知晓这个数字的含义也是应该的,没有必要惊叹,“那就请朝着这个方向努力吧。” „...... Did not need you saying that I can also.” After black butterfly accordingly , to continue to turn the sign...... “呵……不用你说,我也会的。”黑蝴蝶应声后,继续翻牌…… ............ ………… To 11 th round finished, score contrast of both sides is 24 : 30, the black butterfly is in the lead. 至第十一轮结束,双方的分数对比为24比30,黑蝴蝶领先。 After that dialogue, the black butterfly turned out two to be possible the score sign, the sign two in known sign consumed only to remain one pair. 在那番对话后,黑蝴蝶又翻出了两张可得分牌,将已知牌中的两相牌消耗到了只剩一对。 Then, in final three turned in the sign...... she to link unexpectedly was turning out two „zero sign”, namely a known variety no sign, and...... also turned out second „extremely happy Pure Land”. 接着,在最后的三手翻牌中……她竟是连着翻出了两张“零相牌”,即一张已知花色都没有的牌,并且……还翻出了第二张“极乐净土”。 Therefore, when these round ended, on the desktop the known pair only remains two pairs, moreover...... two „extremely happy Pure Land” the position has also been clear. 因此,当这一轮结束时,桌面上已知的对子只剩两对,而且……两张“极乐净土”的位置也已经明确。 At present, two people must be divided into 54 points, namely has revealed „18”, in the floor the remaining sign numbers are 48 ; And, known sign 20, by 2 without a gap hells, 2 extremely happy Pure Land and 4 „two all clear(ly)”, as well as 12 „one clear(ly)” the sign composes. 目前,两人总得分为54分,即已揭示了“十八相”,台面上剩下的牌数是48张;其中,已知牌20张,由二张无间地狱、二张极乐净土、四张“两相皆明”牌、以及12张“一相明”的牌组成。 But unknown sign 28, namely 2 without a gap hells and 26 sign. 而未知牌共28张,即二张无间地狱和26张相牌。 In other words, when 12 th round starts, Feng Bujue can in the unknown sign turn to may the probability of score sign be 2/28, in that turns the probability in the previous round being defeated to be much the same as him, only has about 7%...... 也就是说,在第十二轮开始时,封不觉能在未知牌中翻到可得分牌的概率是二十八分之二,和他在上一轮中失败的那一翻概率基本相同,仅有7%左右…… Sees here, some people will definitely say, he does have no alternative but to turn the unknown sign? Turns three known signs, will then the same aspect lose to the opposite party not on the line? 看到这里,肯定有人会说,他就不能不翻未知牌么？翻三张已知牌,然后将相同的局面丢给对方不就行了？ The answer is- Ok, but...... does not solve the problem. 答案是-可以,但……并不解决问题。 According to 【Tertiary neurasthenia】 „Turns sign rule”, the player in the continual three rounds, at least must turn out an unknown sign, otherwise must punish five points. 根据【三重神经衰弱】的“翻牌规则”,玩家在连续的三轮中,至少得翻出一张未知牌,否则就要罚五分。 This regular intention, was to prevent the player through to turn previously has presented the sign to consume own turning sign opportunity unceasingly. Why as for was „for successive three rounds”, that naturally was considered that some people because of remembering incorrectly the sign caused „to turn three known signs, and has not scored points” condition ; Under this situation, for successive two rounds the person of attack fail, to the risk that wanted in the load penalties for the third time...... 这条规则的用意,就是要防止玩家通过不断地翻此前已经出现过的牌来消耗自己的翻牌机会。至于为什么是“连续三轮”,那自然是考虑到有些人会因为记错牌而导致“翻了三张已知牌且没得分”的状况;这种情形下,连续两轮进攻失败的人,到第三次就要担上罚分的风险了…… In light of the present example, if Feng Bujue chooses to turn three known signs to consume own turning sign power when this round, that is one's turn the black butterfly, the opposite party can also follow a set pattern...... in any case the black butterfly is It does not matter, as the memory ability compared with a Fairly Weak side, she is happy to see that very much both sides turn out the old card to help her consolidated memory unceasingly. 结合眼前的实例来说,假如封不觉在这一轮里选择翻三张已知牌来消耗自己的翻牌权,那轮到黑蝴蝶时,对方也可以如法炮制……反正黑蝴蝶是无所谓的,作为记忆能力比较弱的一方,她很乐于看到双方不断地翻出旧卡来帮她巩固记忆。 Also, after she was „, attacked” a side, in no one is willing to turn out the new card under the aspect, latter attacking at least occupied „a sign” advantage, because attacking will first expose stretch/open new compared with the opposite party surely. 再说,她是“后攻”的一方,在谁都不愿意翻出新卡的局面下,后攻者至少占了“一张牌”的优势,因为先攻者必定会比对方多暴露一张新牌。 Naturally, Feng Bujue is not that type will turn the person who the known sign defends intentionally. 当然了,封不觉本来也不是那种会故意翻已知牌来防守的人。 The true gambler and villains understand that...... that approach could not win. 真正的赌徒、恶棍都明白……那种做法是赢不了的。 For example Jue Bro is guessing the digital in-game pit Jin Mianchou that game...... at that time, if he considered was „what to do I only guesses three to four numbers”, or „the opposite party really dies to support seventh round what to do”, he will draw back and evade...... finally, will lose. 比如觉哥在猜数字游戏中坑了金面愁的那一局……如果他当时考虑的是“我只猜中三到四个数字怎么办”、或者“对方真的死撑到了第七回合怎么办”,那他就会退、会避……最后,就会输。 Bets the devil on table not to respond to weak one's demand, conversely, they will swallow these people...... 赌桌上的魔鬼不会去回应弱者的诉求,相反的,它们会去吞噬那些人…… Makes concessions and avoid, gives up pondering, then in the innermost feelings pray and entreaty, these behaviors will only bring in the failure and destruction. 退让、回避,放弃思考、转而在内心祈祷和哀求,这些行为只会引来失败和毁灭。 The person who can win, is in that time believes firmly that- „I can certainly guess correctly above 5 numbers”, cannot guess correctly to die, but dies...... might also as well. 能够赢下来的人,就是要在那种时刻确信-“我一定能猜到五个数字以上”,猜不到或许会死,而死……也无妨。 Only then such will, can guide „to transport potential”, calls „victory”. 只有这样的意志,才能引导“运势”,唤来“胜利”。 ............ ………… „...... Sure enough......” “啊……果不其然……” The 12 th round, is first-hand, the unknown sign that Feng Bujue opens...... was one „one clear(ly)”. 第十二轮,第一手,封不觉翻开的未知牌……是一张“一相明”。 At this moment, he has two choices: The first type, is quite safe approach- gives up continuing the renovation sign, then turns two known signs, finished oneself this round. Thus, only increased a pair of known pair to the opposite party, and reduced an unknown sign. When to black butterfly attack, the probability that first turns to may the score sign is 3/27, about 11% probabilities. 此刻,他有两种选择:第一种,是比较稳妥的的做法-放弃继续翻新牌,回头去翻两张已知牌,结束自己这一轮。这样,只给对方增加了一对已知对子,并减少了一张未知牌。到黑蝴蝶进攻时,第一手翻到可得分牌的概率是二十七分之三,大约11%的几率。 But another quite adventurous approach is- turns an unknown sign again, the sign that if this second-hand turns is like the first-hand variety, he can score points. 而另一种比较冒险的做法就是-再翻一张未知牌,假如这第二手翻到的牌和第一手的花色一样,他就可以得分。 Is the success ratio of then...... doing this how many? What is the failure risk? 那么……这样做的成功率是多少？失败风险又是什么呢？ Can figure out through the known sign, in 27 unknown signs at this moment, 22 are the pairs, namely „one already clear(ly)” the sign, 3 were „two already clear(ly)” the sign, 2 were the hell signs. 通过已知的牌可以算出,此刻的27张未知牌里,有22张都是对子,即“一相已明”的牌,有三张是“两相已明”的牌,还有二张是地狱牌。 Feng Bujue wants to score points, must turn out his round of first turning out „heel Guangping”, but its probability only has about 3% ; Words that if cannot turn, he is facing three possibilities...... 封不觉想要得分,必须翻出他本轮第一手翻出的“足跟广平相”,而其概率仅有3%左右;万一翻不到的话,他面临着三种可能…… First, he had 81% probabilities to turn to „one already clear(ly)”, collected a pair of known pair to the opposite party again, when causes the opposite party turned the sign next time to turn to may the probability of score sign rise to over 15%. 一,他有81%的几率翻到“一相已明”牌,再给对方凑出一对已知对子,使对方下一次翻牌时翻到可得分牌的概率上升到15%以上。 Second, he had 7% probabilities to turn to another two „two already clear(ly)”, helping the opposite party have an opportunity of 100% score in the next round directly. 二,他有7%的几率翻到另外两张“两相已明”牌中的一张,让对方在下一轮直接获得一次100%得分的机会。 Third, similarly is 7% probabilities, he will turn to the hell sign, but this...... is the best result, such opposite party will pull out to may the probability of score sign rise to 11.5%, rising not will be many. 三,同样是7%的几率,他会翻到地狱牌,而这……已是最好的结果了,这样对方抽到可得分牌的概率会升到11.5%,上升得不算多。 In summary, how regardless to see, here chooses the safe means is quite good. 综上所述,无论怎么看,这里还是选择稳妥的办法比较好。 But...... 可是…… „According to the words of this trend, I turns one again, most likely will be......” Feng Bujue will talk over, while has opened the second unknown sign. “按照这种趋势的话,我再翻一张,八成就会是……”封不觉一边念叨,一边已翻开了第二张未知牌。 Finally, he turned one „two already clear(ly)”. 结果,他翻到了一张“两相已明”牌。 Because his round had turned twice signs, and variety is different, therefore is impossible to score points. Therefore, that he turns out, has basically been able to determine that becomes the score of opposite party. 因为他这一轮已经翻了两次牌,且花色不同,所以是不可能得分的。因此,他翻出的这张,基本已可以确定成为了对方的分数。 „Un...... seems like, transports/fortunes the potential completely that side you.” Feng Bujue sees this worst result, is actually the appearance of caring at all, „thinks that the next round you will also obtain over 6 points.” “嗯……看起来,运势完全在你那边呢。”封不觉看到这最坏的结果,却是满不在乎的样子,“想必下一轮你也会得到六分以上吧。” Saying, him has not been waiting for the opposite party to respond, then has turned out the third sign. 说着,他还没等对方回应,便已翻出了第三张牌。 Made one think what was inconceivable was...... he turned an unknown sign unexpectedly ; This time, what turned out was „one clear(ly)”, therefore, on the desktop published a pair of bright pair. 令人觉得不可思议的是……他竟然又去翻了一张未知牌;这次,翻出的是“一相明”,于是,桌面上又多出了一对明对子。 „Actually this fellow wants why......” black butterfly unable to understand, she ponders to say in the heart secretly, „second-hand I can also understand...... looks like his type arrogantly to the narcissistic man, indeed might harbor leaving things to chance to wrestle in this time ; But this third...... , is impossible to score points, and almost surely to me under the premises of more advantage, does he also turn the unknown sign?” “这家伙究竟想干什么……”黑蝴蝶看不懂了,她在心中暗忖道,“第二手我还能理解……像他这种自大到自恋的男人,的确有可能会在这种时刻抱着侥幸心理去搏一下的;但这第三手……在根本不可能得分、且几乎必定会给我更多优势的前提下,他还翻未知牌？” „Please......” next second, the Feng Bujue's speaking voice interrupt the train of thought of black butterfly, „I know that you are thinking anything...... hehe...... does not use, for that you think that not the clear matter hesitates. You before the memory is fuzzy, the score that should take takes. If you came a mistake...... that I to win here also are too rather relaxed.” “请吧……”下一秒,封不觉的说话声打断了黑蝴蝶的思绪,“我知道你在想什么……呵呵……不用为了那种你想不明白的事情而犹豫。你还是趁着记忆模糊之前,把该拿的分数拿了吧。假如你在这里都来个失误……那我赢得未免也太轻松了。”