RINAPE :: Volume #19

#1813: Hong Kong IPO


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Muye Automobile Group after the Muye aurora completed sparking to go on stage, Muye Science and Technology at Hong Kong listing ipo matter, had arrived at the final link of shooting. 牧野汽车集团凭借牧野极光完成了闪亮登场之后,牧野科技在香港上市ipo的事情,已经到了临门一脚的最终环节。 In view of the fact that Ele.me has not covered the nation and Muye Automobile Group newly to establish and not have the means accurate weight market value, Android and Apple has not put out the genuine poverty thing, therefore Li Mu does not prepare to pack Muye Science and Technology these companies, but first these two independents, with the Muye Science and Technology main body, goes on the market in Hong Kong. 鉴于饿了么还没有覆盖全国、牧野汽车集团又刚刚成立、没办法准确衡量市值、安卓和苹果也都没有拿出真正革新性的东西,所以李牧不准备把这几个公司打包进牧野科技,而是先将这两个公司独立出来,用牧野科技的主体,在香港上市。 At present, the estimate value that the credit corroborative gives is 3200 hundred million USD, this estimate value, is at present the global ipo estimate value highest. 目前,承销商给的估值是三千二百亿美元,这个估值,已经是目前全球ipo估值最高的了。 Many company although maximum times, the market value surpasses 5000 hundred million USD, even some have broken through over ten thousand hundred million USD, but this is they go on the market some time, even several years and more than ten years later achieves. 许多公司虽然最高的时候,市值超过五千亿美元,甚至有的冲破过上万亿美元,但这都是他们上市一段时间,甚至几年、十几年以后才做到的。 Many big companies when most start ipo is also in a young people period of company, has the potential, but the strength not very is so powerful, therefore they go on the market, in the ipo stage, often only attained tens of billions USD market values. 很多大公司在最开始ipo的时候还处于一家公司的青少年时期,有潜力,但实力还不够那么强大,所以他们上市的时候,在ipo阶段,往往就只拿到了几百亿美元的市值。 However, Muye Science and Technology is different. 但是,牧野科技不一样。 Muye Science and Technology now is not young people, he now is an ultra-large company that has the enormous market coverage fraction, the extremely high income, although has not arrived at the peak, but can also be is in the young adults. 牧野科技现在已经不是青少年了,他现在已经是一个拥有极大市场覆盖率、极高收入的超大型公司,虽然还没到巅峰期,但也算得上是正处于青壮年。 Therefore, invests child's estimate value pattern, is not suitable on him. 所以,投资小朋友的估值模式,在他身上已经不适用了。 It looks like the transfer fee of star player, 17-18 talent, transfer fee also only then several million Pound Sterling at the most, but this person possibly later the worth five years turns ten times, but this is must give the time, to give the arena to witness. 就像是球星的转会费,十七八天才,转会费也只有几百万英镑顶天了,但这个人可能在五年之后身价翻十倍,不过这是要交给时间、交给赛场去见证的。 The company is also same, most companies just went on the market time, actually the business has not soared truly, what depended is that financing of listing ipo, the market value and unceasingly increasing, supports the business of company to be rapid. 公司也是一样,大部分公司刚上市的时候,其实业务还没有真正腾飞,靠的是上市ipo的那一笔融资,以及不断攀升的市值,来支撑公司的业务飞速。 However, Muye Science and Technology now, has crossed. 但是,牧野科技现在,已经过了。 Therefore, tens of billions USD, even 3000 hundred million USD ipo estimate values, have not been able to make Li Mu be satisfied. 所以,几百亿美元,甚至三千多亿美元的ipo估值,已经无法让李牧感到满意。 Because looks like in Li Mu, the YY ecology in the high coverage fraction and high payment rate/lead of the world, goes against heaven's will existence of level in this time, is only this point, on value 4000 hundred million USD. 因为在李牧看来,yy生态在全球的高覆盖率以及高付费率,在这个时代已经是逆天级的存在,光是这一点,就值四千亿美元 Any industry, once covers the world, can attain x2 and x3 even x10 ** uff. 任何产业,一旦覆盖全球,就能拿到一个x2、x3甚至x10的**uff。 The Libaba main earning in the market, Taobao, Tmall and Ali clouds these big main force business most profits internally internally, therefore achieved the 4-5 thousand hundred million USD market values. 啊里巴巴主要营收在都在国内市场,淘宝天猫、阿里云这几大主力业务绝大多数的利润都在国内,所以做到了四五千亿美元的市值。 Amazon covered other almost all places besides China, when attaining was highest about ten thousand hundred million USD market values, if these two companies merge, that is e-Commerce that covers the world as well as covers the enterprise cloud service platform in the world, so long as does not touch the anti-monopoly law, then its market value is not 4-5 100 billion adds 1 trillion is so simple, may surpass 20,000 hundred million, and even higher. 亚马逊覆盖了除了华夏之外的其他几乎所有地方,拿到了最高时近万亿美元的市值,如果这两个公司合并,那就是一个覆盖全球的电商以及覆盖全球的企业云服务平台,只要不触及反垄断法,那它的市值绝不是四五千亿加一万亿这么简单,有可能超过两万亿,甚至更高。 Facebook of later generation, just like Amazon, cannot cover the China market, but also attained 5,000-6,000 hundred million USD even higher market values, but Tencent key business internally, attained the 4-5 thousand hundred million USD market values. 后世的faebook,和亚马逊一样,也没能覆盖华夏市场,但还拿到了5,000-6,000亿美元甚至更高的市值,而腾讯的主要业务都在国内,也拿到了四五千亿美元的市值。 These two companies put together, the influence even not necessarily able to compare favorably with present Muye Science and Technology, because the Muye Science and Technology coverage form globally almost monopolizes. 这两家公司加在一起,影响力甚至都未必能比得上现在的牧野科技,因为牧野科技在全球范围内的覆盖形式几乎是垄断的。 After msn thorough passed coolly, Li Mu has not suppressed any immediate Instant Messenger class software product again, because he knows, the world situation has become, anybody jumps to compete with Muye Science and Technology, can only be unproductive, does not act with oneself, he himself will implicate dead himself. 在msn彻底凉透了之后,李牧就没有再打压过任何一款即时通讯类的软件产品,因为他知道,天下大势已成,任何人跳出来跟牧野科技竞争,都只能是徒劳,不用自己出手,他自己就会把自己拖累死。 Therefore looks like in Li Mu, at present to the Muye Science and Technology 3200 hundred million USD market values, the whole is slightly somewhat low. 所以在李牧看来,目前给牧野科技三千二百亿美元的市值,整体还是略微偏低的。 Let alone, Muye Science and Technology or Google and Baidu shareholder, these two companies add also to have the big tens of billions USD market value. 更何况,牧野科技还是谷歌百度的股东,这俩公司加起来也有大几百亿美元的市值。 Moreover, Muye Pictures recent «Flying Tigers» truly is obtains the box office record of earthshaking, although a movie cannot explain following Muye Pictures also to be able SF Express with the current, but at least is also a supplement of very powerful. 而且,牧野映象最近的《飞虎队》确实是取得的了震撼全球的票房成绩,虽说一部电影不能说明后面的牧野映象也能顺风顺水,但起码也是一个很强力的补充。 Therefore, the Li Mu's ideal market value, at least must first cross 450 billion this lines. 所以,李牧的理想市值,至少也要先过四千五百亿这条线。 Will rise suddenly many after the listing as for the Muye Science and Technology stock, that was another matter. 至于牧野科技的股票在上市之后会暴涨多少,那就是另一件事了。 In view of this, Li Mu and securities trader represent and meet. 鉴于此,李牧与券商代表又见了一次面。 In the meeting, Li Mu set the requests of ipo 4500 hundred million USD estimate values. 在会面上,李牧提出了ipo四千五百亿美元估值的要求。 Estimate value 4500 hundred million USD, all shareholders and other proportions diluted 10% stocks to be used to make the release stock, altogether distributes 1 billion, stock price 45 USD. 估值四千五百亿美元,全体股东等比例稀释10%的股份用来做发行股,总共发行十亿股,股价45美元 450 hundred million USD that collects, 350 hundred million USD will be used to strengthen various investments of Muye Science and Technology present stage, including research and development, market, cloud computing as well as new business attempt. 募集到的四百五十亿美元,将有三百五十亿美元用来增强牧野科技现阶段的各项投入,包括研发、市场、云计算以及新业务尝试。 Remaining 100 hundred million USD, will be leveraged by the shareholders and other proportions. 剩下的一百亿美元,将由股东们等比例套现。 Everyone is defending Muye Science and Technology very for a long time, was the time attains a good money. 大家守着牧野科技挺长时间了,也是时候拿到一笔大钱了。 100 hundred million USD take the minute/share, even if only then a person of point stock, can attain hundred million USD. 一百亿美元拿出来分,哪怕只有一个点股份的人,也能拿到一亿美元 Naturally, the price is he 1% stocks, must dilute 0.1%, after the dilution, remains 0.9%. 当然,代价是他1%的股份,要稀释掉0.1%,稀释后还剩0.9%。 If only then the executive of 0.1% stocks, this time dilutes 0.01%, can attain Ten Million USD. 如果是只有0.1%股份的高管,这次稀释掉0.01%,也能拿到一千万美元 This with the advantage of big shot. 这就是跟对大佬的好处。 With right big shot, 2-3 years grasp wave of ipo, zero point several points stocks, can realize financial affairs to be free. 跟对了大佬,2-3年抓一波ipo,零点几个点的股份,都能实现财务自由。 Does not follow to the big shot, 20-30 years of boast commisserate boast commisserate industry, finally including the person who the house cannot afford, has plenty of such people. 跟不对大佬,20-30年矜矜业业,最后连套房子也买不起的人,也大有人在。 In remaining the stocks as for the shareholders hand, will be locked by the agreement, can not reduce in the secondary market in the next two years, can not pawn in the primary market. 至于股东们手中剩下的股份,将由协议锁定,未来两年内不得在二级市场减持、也不得在一级市场质押。 In other words, even after Muye Science and Technology listing, in Li Mu also over 70% stocks, but his these stocks cannot undersell in the secondary market, is unable to buy and sell, no means do to pawn the loan in the primary market. 也就是说,就算牧野科技上市之后,李牧手里还有超过70%的股份,但他这些股份也不能在二级市场抛售了,无法买卖,也没办法在一级市场做质押贷款。 The major stockholders do not dump the stock, will give the investor a stronger confidence. 大股东不抛售股份,就会给投资者更强的信心。 If the major stockholder just went on the market wants completely all means to undersell in the secondary market, that stock price crashes inevitably. 如果大股东刚上市就想尽一切办法在二级市场上抛售,那股价必然崩盘。 If the major stockholder just went on the market, pawned own stock to the securities trader, oneself leveraged to lead a life of comfort, that stock price will unable to maintain. 如果大股东刚上市,就把自己的股份质押给了券商,自己套现去享乐,那股价也将维持不住。 The major stockholders, look like a garrison troops military officer of city, must give the army officers frequently, as well as common people person in city in the faith, everyone can with the military officer together courageously anti- enemy. 大股东,就像是一个城池的守军将领,要时刻给全军将士,以及老百姓“人在城在”的信念,大家才能够和将领一起奋勇抗敌。 Several national capital securities traders' estimate values to 4500 hundred million USD, many somewhat dreaded. 几个国资券商对四千五百亿美元的估值,多少有些忌惮。 First, the price is too high ; 第一,价格实在太高; Second, the risk is truly big ; 第二,风险确实挺大; Third, has not done such large-scale ipo. 第三,还没搞过这么大规模的ipo。 In the past Ali went on the market, 200 billion ipo scales are broke the record, now Muye Science and Technology direct 4500 hundred million USD tall open/start, melody deciding was too high. 当年阿里上市,两千亿的ipo规模就已经是破纪录的了,现在牧野科技直接四千五百亿美元高开,调子是在定的太高。 The securities traders want to grasp such large-scale ipo, first is can help Muye Science and Technology raise 450 hundred million USD funds, the collecting less than fund was purely talks nonsense. 券商想拿住这么大规模的ipo,首先是得能帮牧野科技募集到450亿美元的资金,募集不到资金就纯属扯淡了。 Li Mu said to them: „, Once you at 4500 hundred million USD scales ipo that continues Muye Science and Technology, I believe, certainly will have a large number of customers to ask you to subscribe the Muye Science and Technology stock, 450 hundred million USD scales you think very in a big way, but the reaction of market will certainly make you realize, this is a very easy duty.” 李牧却对他们说:“诸位,一旦你们以4500亿美元的规模承接下来牧野科技的ipo,我相信,一定会有大量客户找你们认购牧野科技的股票,450亿美元的规模你们以为很大,但市场的反应一定会让你们意识到,这是一个非常容易的任务。” person in charge of Lord credit corroborative somewhat does not have the energy, said: Chief Li, I made several years of ipo, your company ipo fundraising scale, adds to be higher than the company size that I make in the two years, you said that I can not be anxious?” 主承销商的负责人有些没底气,说:“李总,我做了好几年ipo了,您这一家公司ipo的募资规模,比我这两年做的公司规模加起来还要高,你说我能不紧张吗?” Li Mu said with a smile: This is the good matter, finally has the opportunity to do a big matter, makes ipo to be much stronger than to dozens market value hundreds of millions USD and 2,000,000,000-3,000,000,000 Hong Kong dollars companies every year.” 李牧笑道:“这是好事儿啊,终于有机会来搞个大事情,比每年给几十家市值几亿美元、2,000,000,000-3,000,000,000港币的公司做ipo要强得多。” , Li Mu also said: „When to be honest, is ipo the scale very big jumbo company, the performance after listing is stabler, these depend on the small company that a concept and heat degree crawl, today the stock price can rise suddenly 50%, tomorrow will have the possibility within one day to fall 90%!” 顿了顿,李牧又道:“说实话,越是ipo时就已经规模很大的巨无霸公司,上市后的业绩越稳定,那些靠点概念、热度爬起来的小公司,今天股价能暴涨50%,明天就有可能一天之内跌掉90%!” Some many companies clarified are listing circle money, but had the underwriting chamber of commerce to help them make ipo, if you missed the Muye Science and Technology ipo such big matter, possibly over the next 20 years, you will unable to bump into again participate in the opportunity of this big project.” “有很多公司摆明了就是上市圈钱的,但还是有承销商会帮他们做ipo,如果你们错过了牧野科技ipo这么大的事情,可能未来20年,你再也碰不到参与这种大项目的机会。” The opposite party nod gently, said: Truth truly is such truth, but this price to us , the pressure was too truly big......” 对方轻轻点头,说:“道理确实是这么个道理,不过这个价格对我们来说,也确实压力太大了……” Li Mu said with a smile: British HSBC's back Goldberg Family, has scurried to probably meet Muye Science and Technology ipo, I removed from the US stock market ipo, they are not willing to give up as before, their family's still live in the Yanjing hotel person in charge to the present, more than half a year, has wanted to see me, but I did not see him, for two reasons, first, they before the matter that did with Wall Street that group of people together, was really makes me a little disgusting ; Second, I am drying in the sun him intentionally, dried in the sun till me to say what he accepted anything's that day.” 李牧笑道:“英国汇丰背后的goldberg家族,一直上赶着要接牧野科技的ipo,我都把ipo从美股撤回来了,他们依旧不愿放弃,他们家族的负责人到现在还在燕京的酒店里住着,这已经大半年了,想见我,但我就是不见他,原因有两个,第一,他们之前跟华尔街那帮人一起搞的事情,实在是让我有点恶心;第二,我故意晾着他,晾到我说什么他接受什么的那天为止。” Speaking of this, Li Mu also said: Right, this brother also has actually calculated the respect to me, delivered me at FA Premier League a club, I have not prepared a Muye Science and Technology ipo meat not to eat to him, therefore I want from fundraising of ipo this 450 hundred million USD, to find 100 hundred million USD shares temporarily to him, if you felt, your securities trader puts together, 35 billion somewhat are strenuous, we can also chat again, I believe that even if 45 billion give Goldberg Family, they can still complying without hesitation.” 说到这,李牧又道:“对了,这老哥其实一直对我还算尊重,在英超还送了我一个俱乐部,我也没准备牧野科技ipo一点肉都不给他吃,所以我暂时想从ipo这四百五十亿美元的募资里,匀出来一百亿美元的份额给他,如果你们觉得,你们这几家券商加在一起,三百五十亿还是有些吃力,我们还可以再聊,我相信就算四百五十亿都给goldberg家族,他们也会毫不犹豫的答应。” Li Mu said, looked at people one eyes, said earnestly: But, I must give the low-down with everyone, why I remove from the US stock market Muye Science and Technology, does not want to make the big shot in this group of Wall Street enjoy this capital grand feast.” 李牧说完,看了众人一眼,认真道:“不过,我要跟大家交个底,我为什么把牧野科技从美股撤回来,就是不想让这帮华尔街的大佬享受这场资本盛宴。” Therefore, I must place Hong Kong it, because in any event, Hong Kong is the China inalienable part, Muye Science and Technology goes on the market in Hong Kong, is Fei Shui does not flow the bystander field.” “所以,我要把它放在香港,因为无论如何,香港都是华夏不可分割的一部分,牧野科技在香港上市,也算是肥水不流外人田。” But if everyone disliked this meat is too big, could not finish eating, unable to eat up and unable to digest, I can only place Hong Kong this meat, then made the great alligator of that help/gang Wall Street transnational eat.” “但是如果大家都嫌这块肉太大了,吃不完、吃不下、消化不了,那我只能还是把这块肉放在香港,然后让那帮华尔街的巨鳄跨国来食。” In that case, has no loss to Muye Science and Technology, I sacrificed 10% stocks as before, raised 450 hundred million USD funds, who the only difference was helps me collect this sum of money, but, to everyone present, this loss to is very big, once you made the market see, you did not have the ability to swallow the bulk meat, even no ability swallowed the bulk meat in own main house gate, after that even came to Hong Kong ipo company, will not look for your taking responsibility credit corroborative, will choose the British capital background likely, or the securities trader of American fund background did, when the time comes everyone can instantaneous fall into. Passive!” “如果那样的话,对牧野科技没有任何损失,我依旧是牺牲10%的股份,募集450亿美元的资金,唯一的区别就是谁去帮我募集这笔钱,但是,对在座的大家来说,这个损失可就很大了,一旦你们让市场看到,你们没能力吞下大块肉,甚至没能力在自己家门口吞下大块肉,那以后即便是来香港ipo的公司,也不会找你们做主承销商,很可能会选英资背景,或者美资背景的券商来做,到时候大家会瞬间陷入被动!”
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