RINAPE :: Volume #15

#1418: Swallowing a camel is not easy

LNMTL needs user funding to survive Read More

„By me, Muye Science and Technology purchases Apple, the biggest problem is not Apple, but is Muye Science and Technology can give Apple purchase offer.” “以我个人来看,牧野科技收购苹果,最大的问题不是苹果本身,而是牧野科技能给到苹果的收购offer。” Louise Martin said to Li Mu: „The Apple market value is low, 3 billion dollars basically these round also bottomed, after all Apple also has own Operating System and host computer business, moreover this Poly empties is too fierce, therefore the Apple stock price will have certain ultra to fall the phenomenon, when advantage spatial digestion was similar, certainly will have the appropriate bottoming rebound, we take 3.5 billion dollars for instance, Muye Science and Technology, if the hope purchases smoothly, the offer at least needs over 5 billion, both sides to negotiate again with frequent contact several rounds, it is estimated that the price of actual operation, should in 55- about 6 billion dollars.” 路易斯・马丁对李牧说:“苹果的市值再低,30亿美金基本上这一轮也就触底了,毕竟苹果还有自有操作系统以及电脑主机业务,而且这一波利空来的太猛,所以苹果股价会存在一定的超跌现象,等利空消化的差不多了,一定还会有适当的触底反弹,我们就以35亿美金为例,牧野科技如果希望收购顺利,报价至少要在50亿以上,双方再你来我往的谈判几轮,估计实际操作的价格,应该在55-60亿美金左右。” „55- 6 billion?” Li Mu shows a faint smile, to Louise the Martin words show neither approval nor disapproval. “55-60亿？”李牧微微一笑,对路易斯・马丁的话不置可否。 Actually his psychological price, even if 70 hundred million USD buy Apple is not expensive/noble, if 55- 6 billion can take, that was really small advantage to the grandmother family/home. 其实他的心理价位,就算是70亿美元买下苹果也不算贵,如果55-60亿就能拿下来,那真是便宜到姥姥家了。 However, looks at 55-60 hundred million USD this numbers purely, although small advantage, but this to Muye Science and Technology, is an ultra large amount of fund, at the Muye Science and Technology current fund mass, wants to swallow such a camel, is far from depressing its stock price is so easy. 不过,单纯看55-60亿美元这个数目,虽然便宜,但这对牧野科技来说,也是一笔超巨额的资金,以牧野科技目前的资金体量,想吞下这么一头骆驼,远没打压它的股价那么容易。 Louise Martin asked Li Mu: „Chief Li, supposed that Apple does accept by the estimate value privatization purchases of 60 hundred million USD, how Muye Science and Technology prepares to pay this large amount of fund? On Muye Science and Technology round of financing also melted 33 hundred million USD, if memory serves, including 3 hundred million USD for giving the shareholder level leveraged, actually those who infuse the operation fund is only 30 hundred million USD, moreover Muye Science and Technology globally threw constructed massive data processing center, seven 7-8 that this sum of money should also spend eight?” 路易斯・马丁问李牧:“李总,假设苹果接受以60亿美元的估值私有化收购,牧野科技准备怎么支付这笔巨额的资金？牧野科技上一轮融资也只是融了33亿美元,如果没记错的话,其中有三亿美元是用于给股东层套现了,实际注入运营资金的只是30亿美元,而且牧野科技在全球范围内投建了大量的数据处理中心,这笔钱应该也花的七七八八了吧？” Li Mu nods, said: „Muye Science and Technology with 60 hundred million USD cash definitely with, but can choose other solutions.” 李牧点了点头,道:“牧野科技拿60亿美元的现金肯定是拿不出来的,不过可以选择其他的解决办法。” Louise Martin asked: „Do you want by some cash, to supplement with some Muye Science and Technology stocks to merge?” 路易斯・马丁问:“您是想以部分现金,辅以部分牧野科技的股份来并购吗？” Li Mu asked with a smile: „Was I insane? Do I use the Muye Science and Technology stock to merge Apple? Let the Apple shareholder from holding the Apple stock changes to holds the Muye Science and Technology stock? Did this to them, turn misfortune into a blessing?” 李牧笑着问道:“我疯了？我用牧野科技的股份并购苹果？让苹果的股东从持有苹果股份改为持有牧野科技股份？这对他们来说,岂不是因祸得福了？” Louise Martin nods, asking of surprise: „How do you prepare to raise this fund?” 路易斯・马丁点点头,诧异的问:“那您准备怎么筹措这笔资金呢？” Li Mu said: „We can first negotiate with Apple, discuss an intention price, then communicates with the Apple shareholder, some prepayment cash, then remaining after and other Muye Science and Technology went on the market, pays, pays to a they considerable interest additionally, do you feel feasible?” 李牧说:“我们可以先跟苹果谈判,谈一个意向价格,然后跟苹果股东沟通,先付一部分现金,然后剩下的等牧野科技上市后再支付,额外支付给他们一个可观的利息,你觉得可行吗？” Louise Martin said: „I believe, the Apple shareholder is not necessarily able to comply, they are the experts who play the capital, if they no longer favor a project, they will choose as soon as possible the stop-loss leverage, then draws cash to make other investments, these people most do not care is that interest rate, on the contrary, they are like giving others the interest rate and with the person who others' money makes the investment.” 路易斯・马丁说:“我个人认为,苹果的股东未必会答应,他们都是玩资本的高手,他们如果不再看好一个项目,他们会选择尽快止损套现,然后拿钱去做其他投资,这些人最不在意的就是那点利率,相反,他们都是喜欢给别人利率、拿别人的钱做投资的人。” At this point, Louise Martin looks at Li Mu, a face anticipated that said: „Chief Li, actually the best way, is Muye Science and Technology conducts round financing again, with melting money purchases Apple, the rough estimate, the Muye Science and Technology present estimate value can achieve 700 hundred million USD above, if melts one round, to dilute 10% stocks again, purchased the Apple fund to come out, the remaining money can also make other layouts.” 说到这里,路易斯・马丁看着李牧,一脸期待的说:“李总,其实最好的办法,是牧野科技再进行一轮融资,拿融到的钱去收购苹果,粗略估计,牧野科技现在的估值能做到七百亿美元以上,如果再融一轮、稀释10%的股份,收购苹果的资金就出来了,剩下的钱还可以做其他布局。” Li Mu shows a faint smile, said: „Before ipo, I did not prepare to finance again.” 李牧微微一笑,说:“在ipo之前,我不准备再融资了。” The Muye Science and Technology present user mass, the product strength, the team strength and support strength are powerful, competed between disparity also to pull open the long distance with other . Moreover the YY value-added service income was very considerable, «Town of Paradise», «Plants vs Zombies Online» and YY Game Hall profit is also high, Muying Ticket System such attracted the gold/metal giant beast, the overall profit was considerable, moreover all call circuits do not need to burn money the place and this kind of time Li Mu not to need so much funds to fight for the market, therefore diluted the stock again, is completely the gain does not equal the loss. 牧野科技现在的用户体量、产品实力、团队实力、支撑实力都非常强大,与其他竞品之间的差距也都拉开了十万八千里,而且yy的增值服务收入十分可观、《天堂小镇》、《植物大战僵尸online》以及yy游戏大厅的利润也非常高,还有牧影票务系统这样的吸金巨兽,整体利润非常可观,而且所有业务线都没有需要烧钱的地方、这种时候李牧已经不需要大量的资金去抢夺市场了,所以再稀释股份,完全是得不偿失。 However to Louise Martin and to Sequoia, they because also incomparably favors the Muye Science and Technology future, therefore also hopes to be able very much before Muye Science and Technology goes on the market, strives for some Muye Science and Technology stocks again, Muye Science and Technology the rapidness of market value ascending velocity, is above the imagination, more attains the Muye Science and Technology stock early, can the earlier fixed huge profit. 不过对路易斯・马丁、对红杉来说,他们也因为无比看好牧野科技的将来,所以也很希望能够在牧野科技上市之前,再多争取一些牧野科技的股份,牧野科技的市值上升速度之快,超乎想象,越早拿到牧野科技的股份,就能越早锁定巨额利润。 although Li Mu does not prepare to finance, but wants to purchase Apple now, money truly is the most major problem, Li Mu not so many cash, in the hand most valuable is the Muye Science and Technology stock, but traded Apple with the stock at this time is really somewhat not worth it. 虽然李牧不准备融资,但现在想收购苹果,钱确实是最大的一个问题,李牧没有那么多现金,手里最值钱的就是牧野科技的股份,但是这个时候拿股份换苹果实在是有些划不来。 But, on the other hand, the present is to purchase the Apple best window, Apple stock price, the confidence metropolis/can of Apple manager bottoms at last thoroughly, if can before bottoming the rebound takes Apple, from now on will have a never recurring trouble, if after bottomed the rebound, wants to take Apple, the cost inevitably is much higher. 可是,话说回来,眼下是收购苹果最好的窗口期,无论是苹果的股价,还是苹果管理者的信心都会在最近这段时间彻底触底,如果能在触底反弹之前把苹果拿下,从今起一绝后患,如果等触底反弹之后再想拿苹果,成本就必然高得多。 This speculates in the stock market the mentality has the wonder of equally good results from different methods with the domestic private investor, the stock continual circuit breaker the time, in the hand the stock deep wrap/sets wants to sell actually cannot sell out, at this time had a dream wants to hurry to shear the meat , but once the circuit breaker opened, many people instead do not hate to sell, because he felt, since the circuit breaker has opened, that indicates that was not far from the rebound, might as well after repaying the partial loss let go, even also the hope stock can rise a new altitude. 这跟国内散户炒股的心态有异曲同工之妙,股票连续跌停板的时候,手里股票深套想卖却卖不掉,这个时候做梦都想赶紧割肉,可一旦跌停板打开的时候,很多人反而不舍得卖了,因为他觉得,既然跌停板已经打开,那就预示着离反弹不远了,不妨在补回部分损失之后再脱手,甚至还希望股票能够重新涨出一个新高度。 Thinks it over, Li Mu felt, recently purchases Apple to be safest, therefore he to Louise Martin said: „Louise, I establishes one specifically to be responsible for purchasing Apple project division instantly, project division is under the charge to me personally, is the project division senior adviser by you, over the two days was laborious you to help comb Muye Science and Technology to purchase the Apple specific plan, begins the minimum offer that investigates Apple possibly to accept, after waiting for World Health Organization to relieve the warning of China epidemic situation for these days, I went to US (America) personally, this matter landing.” 想来想去,李牧还是觉得,近期内收购苹果最为稳妥,于是他对路易斯・马丁说:“路易斯,我即刻成立一个专门负责收购苹果的事业部,事业部由我亲自负责,由你来担任事业部的高级顾问,这两天辛苦你帮忙梳理一下牧野科技收购苹果的具体方案,也着手调查一下苹果可能接受的最低报价,等这几天世界卫生组织解除华夏疫情的警告之后,我亲自去一趟美国,把这件事情落地。” Louise Martin nods, said: „I, since came, will naturally try to help you and Muye Science and Technology achieves the goal, however, why you also want and other World Health Organization to relieve the epidemic situation to warn that goes to US (America)?” 路易斯・马丁点点头,说:“我既然来了,自然是会尽全力帮助您和牧野科技达成目标,不过话说回来,您为什么还要等世卫组织解除疫情警告才去美国？” Li Mu said: „Performs a point to take the public figures should responsibility and duty completely, I the entire journey in the epidemic situation process keep Yanjing, is the hope can take itself as the model, enhances everyone to resist the confidence of SARS, does not hope, because I leave the quarantine area in midway, but brings the influence on some people.” 李牧说:“尽一点作为公众人物应尽的责任和义务,我在疫情过程中全程留在燕京,是希望能以自己为表率,提高大家抵抗非典的信心,不希望因为我中途离开疫区,而给一些人带来影响。” „I understood.” Louise Martin said: „Since this, that we first started to be ready for these days, in the time does not worry, after all Apple processes this mess, is not a short time can handle.” “我明白了。”路易斯・马丁说:“既然这样,那这几天我们就先开始做好准备,时间上并不是非常着急,毕竟苹果处理这个烂摊子,也不是一时半会能搞定的。” ...... …… Until now, the atypical pneumonia in Yanjing as well as national was under very effective control, according to an information that Muye Science and Technology has, Yanjing had not presented the new patient for these days again, Xiaotangshan Hospital also has the patient to recover one after another. 时至今日,燕京以及全国的非典疫情都得到了非常有效的控制,根据牧野科技掌握的一手信息,燕京这几天都没有再出现新增患者,小汤山医院也陆续有患者痊愈。 According to this rhythm, in less than one month, the influence of SARS can completely finish, by that time, the whole nations can deliver the one breath thoroughly. 按照这个节奏,用不了一个月,非典的影响就可以彻底结束,到那个时候,全国人民都能够彻底送上一口气。 However, Li Mu speculated, World Health Organization should not be severe, they not possible , after all patients leave the hospital, announced the threat to relieve, at present actual situation of domestic epidemic situation control, even if announces that now the threat relieved still does not have any issue. 不过,李牧推测,世卫组织应该不会那么严苛,他们不可能等到所有的患者都出院之后才宣布威胁解除,以目前国内疫情控制的实际情况来看,即便是现在宣布威胁解除也没有什么问题。 Once World Health Organization announced that the crisis of China epidemic situation relieves, duty of Li Mu in SARS completed even, the first matter when the time comes Li Mu must do is hurries to fly US (America), will be clean the matter full-processing of recent backlog. 一旦世卫组织宣布华夏疫情的危机解除,李牧在非典中的任务就算是完成了,到时候李牧要做的第一件事就是赶紧飞一趟美国,把近期积压的事情一口气全处理干净。 The most important issue is to purchase Apple, in addition Muye Science and Technology in other business development of US (America). 最重要的问题是收购苹果,除此之外还有牧野科技在美国的其他业务发展。 Mark Zuckerberg Facebook has also fiddled with get online, for does not disturb his own mentality, for also does not make the Muye Science and Technology frame live in the Facebook development opportunities, what Li Mu adopts to this project is lets go the operator schema that greatly, ignores Mark Zuckerberg fiddle with, but so, Li Mu must know the situation even, has a look at the ideological mode of this young people, compares previous life to have what deviation, if present, hurries to help him change, if not , to continue big letting go to make he himself proceed to run. 马克・扎克伯格的faebook也已经捣鼓上线了,为了不干扰他自己的思路,也为了不让牧野科技框住faebook的发展空间,李牧对这个项目采取的是大撒把的操作模式,放任马克・扎克伯格自己捣鼓,不过即便如此,李牧还是要去了解一下情况,看看这个年轻人的思维模式,相比上辈子有没有什么偏差,如果有,就赶紧帮他改过来,如果没有,就继续大撒把让他自己往前跑。 Elon Musk, he has been waiting further communicates on the project of electric car and commercial launch vehicle with Li Mu, these two projects need very long time and fund foster slowly, before has not gotten the Li Mu final answer, Elon Musk does not dare to act rashly. 还有埃隆・马斯克,他一直等着跟李牧就电动车和商用运载火箭的项目进一步沟通,这两个项目都需要很长的时间和资金慢慢养成,没得到李牧最终答案之前,埃隆・马斯克也不敢妄动。 The Li Mu plan uses for a month, handles these things to US (America) completely, then penetrates with the Sequoia Capital person communicates the matter that Muye Science and Technology goes to US to go on the market, at present the company develops SF Express with the current, was the time plans the ipo matter. 李牧计划用一个月的时间,到美国把这些事情全部搞定,然后再跟红杉资本的人深入沟通一下牧野科技赴美上市的事情,眼下公司发展顺风顺水,是时候计划ipo的事情了。 ipo to Muye Science and Technology such enterprise, is the opportunity of creating MU Online / miracle. ipo对牧野科技这样的企业来说,是一个创造奇迹的机会。 The market of capital is relatively calm, the estimate value that Muye Science and Technology value how much money, the capital gives is also relatively conservative, although looks at Louise the meaning of Martin, Sequoia Capital is willing to give Muye Science and Technology newest 700 hundred million USD above estimate values, but Li Mu to this estimate value unusual does not approve. 资本的市场相对冷静,牧野科技值多少钱,资本给出的估值也都是相对保守的,虽然看路易斯・马丁的意思,红杉资本愿意给牧野科技一个最新700亿美元以上的估值,但李牧对这个估值非常的不认可。 Only US (America) online, peak market value about 2000 hundred million USD, but Muye Science and Technology only takes YY to come out, number of users, influence and coverage fraction, which data not far ultra US (America) online? Not to mention when the entire ecology melted the enormous power as one, such internet giant 700 hundred million USD estimate values, that really talked nonsense. 区区一个美国在线,巅峰市值都将近2000亿美元,而牧野科技只拿一个yy出来,用户数、影响力、覆盖率,哪个数据不远超美国在线？更不用说整个生态融于一体时的巨大威力了,这样的互联网巨擘才700亿美元的估值,那实在是扯淡。 However, Li Mu also is very at heart clear, by the exercise nature of capital, 70 billion estimate value not plan to pit, most 80 billion also at the most, because they must reserve the room for profits for themselves, they in began the stock to rise suddenly after the listing, therefore not possible after going on the market the market value gives the Muye Science and Technology estimate value. 但是,李牧心里也很清楚,以资本的操性,700亿估值不算坑,最多800亿也就顶天了,因为他们也要为自己预留利润空间,就连他们都在等着手里的股份在上市后暴涨,所以不可能拿上市后的市值给牧野科技估值。 To circulation market, investor to a health, can speak the enterprise of story, the confidence is very big, this often can bring a higher market profit to the enterprise, the final result is to let the stock price and market value rises dramatically is fiercer. 对流通市场来说,投资者对一家健康的、能讲故事的企业,信心是非常大的,这样往往能够给企业带来更高的市盈率,最终的结果就是让股价和市值飙升的更厉害。 Synthesis entire internet industry current quotation, if the success purchases Apple, Li Mu has the confidence after Muye Science and Technology ipo, the market value breaks through 1500 hundred million USD rapidly, even after Mangomi 2 and YY tunes is mature, Muye Science and Technology digests Apple smoothly, attacks 2000 hundred million USD market value. 综合整个互联网行业目前的行情,如果成功收购苹果,李牧有信心在牧野科技ipo之后,市值迅速突破1500亿美元,甚至在mango-me二和yytunes成熟、牧野科技顺利消化掉苹果之后,冲击2000亿美元市值大关。 By that time, the Muye Science and Technology fund raising volume will perhaps achieve 200 hundred million USD, that is the true realization! 到那个时候,牧野科技筹资额恐怕将达到200亿美元,那才是真正的变现！
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