RINAPE :: Volume #15

#1417: Camel of skinny is big

LNMTL needs user funding to survive Read More

The sunset and sunrise, to most people, this are ordinary a day, but to Apple as well as its investor, this is a brutal trading day. 日落、日出,对多数人来说,这不过是普通的一天,但对苹果以及它的投资人来说,这又是一个残酷的交易日。 If yesterday were the same, before the plate , the news comprehensively write off to Apple, closes from yesterday before today's plate, Apple Corporation has not issued any announcement again, has not crashed on the stock price to the investor a view, the media held on to this point to make much ado about nothing, said that Apple has totally given up resisting today. 如昨天一样,盘前新闻对苹果全面唱衰,从昨天收盘到今天的盘前,苹果公司没有再发出任何公告,也没有就股价崩盘给股民一个说法,媒体抓住这一点大做文章,说苹果今日已彻底放弃抵抗。 Actually, regardless of Apple responded, or did not respond, finally was the same, it did not respond, the media said that they have given up resisting, it responded, the media will also say their praying mantis arm, when car(riage) and helplessness. 其实,无论苹果回应,或不回应,结果都是一样的,它不回应,媒体说他们已经放弃抵抗,它回应了,媒体又会说他们螳臂当车、无能为力。 In the news before plate, the TV Station financial programs said, according to the hearsay, Jobs has proposed to the board of directors leaves job, Apple is discussing that now elects new CEO to come out, but as if no one is interested in this position. 盘前的新闻里,有一家电视台的财经节目称,据小道消息说,乔布斯已经向董事会提出离职,苹果现在正在商讨推选一位新的ceo出来,但似乎没有人对这个职位感兴趣。 Before opening, some financial experts expected, the Apple stock price will at least also lower 5% today, and even higher. 开盘之前,有财经专家预计,苹果的股价今天将至少还会下挫5%,甚至更高。 If there is any big advantage spatial news today again, it is estimated that the Apple stock price will also fall over 10%. 如果今天再出什么重大的利空消息,估计苹果的股价还会跌出10%以上。 The US stock market will soon open time, Sequoia Capital high-level Vice-President Louise Martin alit from the airplane, pass through hurriedly, takes the private car that the Sequoia China subsidiary company sends, directly soars Muye Science and Technology and Li Mu meets. 美股即将开盘的时候,红杉资本的高级vp路易斯・马丁下了飞机,匆忙过关,乘坐红杉华夏分公司派来的专车,直奔牧野科技与李牧见面。 Louise Martin although flew, but well is the private plane, therefore these more than ten hours of flights to him, is not only not weary, instead gave him an excellent rest and relaxes the experience, therefore he at this moment on rushing to the Muye Science and Technology road, the whole person is full of vigor. 路易斯・马丁虽然飞了一路,但好在是私人飞机,所以这十几个小时的飞行对他来说,非但一点都不疲劳,反而给了他一个极好的休息与放松体验,于是他此刻在赶往牧野科技的路上,整个人精神饱满。 Originally Louise Martin also embarrassed looks for Li Mu to chat the matter after evening's landing, but Li Mu insisting on makes him first go to Muye Science and Technology to meet, therefore he also can only nonstop, hurry to the curtain of night with Li Mu meets. 原本路易斯・马丁也不好意思在晚上落地之后就去找李牧聊事情,但李牧执意让他第一时间去牧野科技碰面,于是他也只能马不停蹄,在夜幕中赶去与李牧碰面。 Li Mu saw in own office came from far away Louise from US (America) Martin, on Muye Science and Technology round of financing, two people had had happening together, but that mainly aims at the Muye Science and Technology finance business. 李牧在自己的办公室里见到了从美国远道而来的路易斯・马丁,在牧野科技上一轮融资的时候,两人曾经有过交集,但那主要是针对牧野科技的融资业务。 Louise not only Martin Sequoia high-level Vice-President, the employed experience especially is also rich, long ago continuously in the securities industry, and ipo domain was employed, therefore has very thorough understanding of the US stock market market, generally, the enterprise of Sequoia investment must operate finally goes to US to go on the market, by Louise Martin coordinated to be responsible. 路易斯・马丁不只是红杉的高级vp,从业经验也格外丰富,早些年一直在证券行业,以及ipo领域从业,所以对美股市场有着非常深入的了解,一般情况下,红杉投资的企业最终要操作赴美上市,都是由路易斯・马丁牵头负责。 It can be said that Louise Martin is in the entire Sequoia system, most understood of US stock market market, Li Mu In short, Sequoia has no fear of great distances to deliver to Yanjing such trump card, from this can also be able to see, attaching great importance to degree of Sequoia to Muye Science and Technology. 可以说,路易斯・马丁是整个红杉体系内,最懂美股市场的一个,李牧一句话,红杉就把这样的王牌不远万里送到了燕京,由此也能看得出,红杉对牧野科技的重视程度。 Louise Martin sees Li Mu, goes forward to shake hand with Li Mu immediately, with also calculates that the fluent Chinese said to Li Mu: „Chief Li hello, we met!” 路易斯・马丁一见李牧,就立刻上前与李牧握手,用还算流利的中文对李牧说:“李总您好,我们又见面了！” Li Mu shows a faint smile, shakes hand with him, said: „Was laborious you Louise, flew, cannot rest.” 李牧微微一笑,与他握了握手,说:“辛苦你了路易斯,这么远飞过来,一刻都没能休息。” Louise Martin said with a laugh: „Chief Li, what my time rides is the private planes of our chairman, to be honest, on that also wants comfortable many compared with the five-star hotel.” 路易斯・马丁笑着说:“李总,我这次来乘坐的是我们董事长的私人飞机,说实话,在那上面,比五星级酒店还要舒服的多。” „That is good.” Li Mu nods, the palm ratio to Li Ziwei, said: „This is my personal assistant Li Ziwei, you keep contact details mutually, facilitates later information exchange.” “那就好。”李牧点点头,手掌比向李紫薇,说:“这是我的私人助理李紫薇,你们互相留个联系方式,也方便以后信息互通。” Louise Martin hastily and Li Ziwei shake hand, said: „Miss Li hello/you good, knows you happily.” 路易斯・马丁急忙与李紫薇握手,道:“李小姐你好,非常高兴认识你。” Li Ziwei also hastily shakes hand to greet with him, later two people exchanged the name card. 李紫薇也急忙与他握手打招呼,随后两人交换了名片。 Li Mu to Louise Martin said: „Louise, we sits down to chat, you want to drink anything, making Ziwei tell that the person gives you to prepare.” 李牧对路易斯・马丁说:“路易斯,咱们坐下聊吧,你想喝点什么,让紫薇吩咐人给你准备。” Louise Martin said to Li Ziwei: „Miss Li, makes one give me one cup of coffee to be good troublesome.” 路易斯・马丁对李紫薇说:“李小姐,麻烦让人给我一杯咖啡就好。” „Good.” Li Ziwei nods, asked Li Mu: „Chief Li, you?” “好的。”李紫薇点点头,又问李牧:“李总,您呢？” Li Mu said: „Comes the bottle Cola, supplemented that sugar minute/share, for these days was too tired.” 李牧说:“来瓶可乐,补充点糖分,这几天太累了。” After the receiving callers area takes a seat, Li Mu then to Louise Martin comes straight to the point, said: „Louise, looks for you, actually mainly wants to consult an issue, how can I most tender offers of Apple, then make Apple delist from NASDAQ, realize the privatization?” 在会客区入座之后,李牧便对路易斯・马丁开门见山,说:“路易斯,这么远把你找过来,其实主要就是想咨询一个问题,我怎么样才能把苹果的大部分股权收购过来,然后再让苹果从纳斯达克退市,实现私有化？” Louise Martin guesses correctly Li Mu to look for is in itself this goal, he slightly hesitates, said: „Chief Li, I want take the liberty to ask one, you are think that the capitalization does acquire Apple Corporation?” 路易斯・马丁猜出李牧找自己就是这个目的,他略一迟疑,说:“李总,我想冒昧的问一句,您是想全资收购苹果公司吗？” Li Mu nods: „Right, I want each equity share of Apple Corporation, wants their each product lines and related patent property rights, even also included their team.” 李牧点了点头:“没错,我要苹果公司的每一份股权,要它们的每一个产品线以及相关的专利所有权,甚至还包括了他们的团队。” Louise Martin said: „Chief Li, by the Apple current slump trend, the market value breaks 30 hundred million USD is not not possible, by that time, will be insane to individual shareholder and holding capital from the investor, even if these investors only bought 100 Apple stocks, the stock price and market value of also to make money, however falling suddenly will let complete wipe-out that they owe, moreover even wants to secure against loss is difficult, in this case, you only need to a Apple round of written offer document, decides a purchase market value to Apple, then let the Apple management and board of directors considers to be OK.” 路易斯・马丁说:“李总,以苹果目前的暴跌趋势来看,市值跌破三十亿美元也不是不可能,到那个时候,从股民到个人股东、控股资本都会疯掉,这些投资人哪怕只买了一百股苹果股票,也是为了赚钱,但是暴跌的股价和市值会让他们亏的血本无归,而且就算是想止损都非常困难,在这种情况下,您只需要给苹果发一份书面的要约文件,给苹果定一个收购市值,然后让苹果的管理层以及董事会去考虑就可以了。” „So is simple?” “就这么简单？” Louise Martin said with a smile: „This is the first pass/test, because the stockholder's rights do not represent the voting rights, you want to purchase Apple most stocks, must first guarantee that Apple most voting powers favor agreeing with your purchase, the person who if these hands grasp the voting rights agreed that then the back shareholder does not agree is still not meaningful even.” 路易斯・马丁笑道:“这是第一关,因为股权不代表投票权,您想收购苹果大多数的股份,首先得确保苹果大多数的投票权能倾向于同意您的收购,如果这些手握投票权的人同意了,那么背后的股东就算不同意也没有任何意义。” Li Mu also asked: „The circulation stock on market?” 李牧又问:“市面上的流通股票呢？” Louise Martin said: „These do not need to be worried, on the path of large enterprise privatization, the young shareholder and private investor does not have the right to speak, so long as the management voting of offer through Apple Corporation, that privatization were very easy.” 路易斯・马丁说:“那些不用担心,在大型企业私有化的道路上,小股东、散户是没有话语权的,只要要约通过苹果公司的管理层投票,那私有化就很容易了。” At this point, Louise Martin supplements one: „ But, since is the privatization, then basically overwhelming majorities must give certain premium, some are 40-50%, some are higher, by the Apple present aspect, gives them specifically many premiums, this we cannot tap the head to have a number immediately, we must through the thorough investigation and appraisal, on the one hand understood possibility that their operational states and future can recall, on the one hand must understand their shareholder current psychology of ; 说到这里,路易斯・马丁又补充一句:“不过,既然是私有化,那么基本上绝大多数都要给出一定的溢价,有的是40-50%,有的更高,以苹果现在的局面,具体给他们多少溢价,这个我们不能立刻拍脑袋就出一个数,我们得通过深入的调查与评估,一方面了解他们的经营状况以及未来能挽回的可能性,一方面还得了解他们股东目前的心理状态; If most shareholders jump eagerly from this fiery pit, that privatization purchase is much easier, so long as gives their certain premiums, they like throwing off hot potato, throws off the Apple stock, in situation that but if they fall suddenly in the Apple stock price, will favor the Apple future as before, that privatization purchase is not relatively easy, even if perhaps will give 100% premiums, will still be not necessarily able successfully. ” 如果大部分股东都急于从这个火坑里跳出来,那私有化收购就容易得多,只要给他们一定的溢价,他们就会像甩掉烫手山芋那样,甩掉苹果的股份,但如果他们在苹果股价暴跌的情况下,依旧看好苹果的未来,那私有化收购相对就没那么容易了,也许就算给出100%的溢价,也未必能够成功。” Li Mu nods gently, said: „Happen to the US stock market opened, has a look at the Apple today's opening price is many.” 李牧轻轻点了点头,说:“正好美股开盘了,看看苹果今天的开盘价是多少。” Li Mu finishes speaking, Li Ziwei then held laptop to walk, after the above accent took out the US stock market transaction software, placed in front of the computer Li Mu. 李牧话音刚落,李紫薇便抱着笔记本电脑走了过来,在上面调取出美股交易软件之后,将电脑放在了李牧面前。 Louise Martin cannot see the computer screen, opens the mouth saying: „On before the road that I come looked at some news, generally speaking, today's capital market to the future of Apple Corporation will not look good, I thought that today's stock price at least needs to fall above 8 points.” 路易斯・马丁看不到电脑屏幕,开口道:“我来的路上看了些盘前新闻,总体看,今天的资本市场对苹果公司的将来非常不看好,我觉得今天的股价至少要跌八个点以上。” Li Mu looked at the data on screen, said with amazement: „It seems like your estimate not wrong, Apple opening fell 7 points, from 5.47 USD, fell 5.08 USD, today breaks 5 Yuan to be the matter of being settled.” 李牧看了看屏幕上的数据,惊讶的说:“看来你的估计没有错,苹果开盘就跌了七个点,从5.47美元,跌到了5.08美元了,今天跌破五元应该是板上钉钉的事情。” Louise Martin nods, said: „Before Apple today's plate , the news had/left the recent advantage spatial news, iPod of a lot of returned goods will compel Apple to eat the profit of mouth also to spit, moreover some mass users were protesting, requesting Apple to give to return goods or the policy of subsidy, at the appointed time awaits the honor of your presence is the iPod returned goods and stock backlog, will make the Apple entire supply chain collapse, user who in addition these protested unceasingly, Apple this time was very difficult to shoulder lived.” 路易斯・马丁点了点头,说:“苹果今天的盘前新闻又出了新的利空消息,大量退货的ipod会逼着苹果把已经吃到嘴里的利润也吐出来,而且还有大量的用户在抗议,要求苹果给出退货或者补贴的政策,到时候光是ipod的退货和库存积压,就会让苹果整条供应链崩溃,再加上那些不断抗议的用户,苹果这次真的很难扛得住了。” Li Mu asked Louise Martin: „You know about Apple many? Knows how many their iPod 3 current stocks are?” 李牧问路易斯・马丁:“你对苹果了解的多吗？知不知道他们ipod三目前的库存是多少？” Louise Martin said: „Normal, competitive electronic products, stock digestion cycle at least 5-60 days, if a mobile telephone brand, years sales volume in 10 million, moon/month sales volume 830,000, then in their normal condition stock should in 150- about 1.6 million.” 路易斯・马丁说:“正常来看,竞争激烈的电子产品,库存消化周期至少5-60天,如果一个手机品牌,年销量在1000万台的话,月销量83万台,那么他们正常情况下的库存应该在150-160万台左右。” Speaking of here, Louise Martin also said: „Before Apple iPod , the sales volume is very good, therefore their stock digestion cycle should be very short, I estimated that most also 30 days, takes for a year 5 million for instance, the stock should almost one month of sales volume, about 400,000, in addition the returned goods of user, it is estimated that be able to achieve 500,000 in the near future.” 说到这儿,路易斯・马丁又道:“不过苹果ipod之前销量还是非常好的,所以他们的库存消化周期应该很短,我估计最多也就三十天,以一年五百万台为例,库存应该差不多一个月的销量,40万台左右吧,再加上近期用户的退货,估计能达到50万台。” Li Mu nods, said: „If iPod stock of Apple in 500,000 . Moreover the present sales volume sells at a discount greatly, Apple will definitely not continue to maintain the beforehand output, might reduce overwhelming majority capacities very much, then through the method consumption stock that the promotion will reduce prices.” 李牧点了点头,说:“如果苹果的ipod库存在50万台,而且现在的销量又大打折扣的话,苹果肯定不会继续保持之前的产量了,很有可能会减少绝大部分产能,然后再通过促销降价的手段消耗库存。” „Almost.” Louise Martin shrugs, said: „At present iPod 3 except for the large scale price cut, without other road can walk, but Apple, if reduces prices sharply, the iPod call circuit would have no money to gain, once Apple prepared the large price cut to keep in stock clear, that basically also indicates, iPod will suspend production quickly, because their not possible continuation to make the OEM (original equipment manufacturer) supplier manufacturer do business at a loss the production, but the OEM (original equipment manufacturer) supplier factory also wanted enough order to maintain a livelihood, if the Apple under-production or suspended production, the iPod production line might stop, by that time, iPod was thorough.” “差不多。”路易斯・马丁耸耸肩,说:“目前ipod三除了大幅度降价,没别的路可以走了,不过苹果如果大幅降价,ipod业务线就没钱可赚了,所以一旦苹果准备大幅降价清库存,那基本也就预示着,ipod很快就会停产,因为他们不可能继续让代工厂商赔本生产,而代工厂也要足够的订单才能活命,如果苹果减产或者停产,ipod的生产线就有可能停掉,到那个时候,ipod就彻底死了。” Li Mu said with a smile: „500,000 stocks, if reduces prices to liquidate significantly, the Apple possible 10 cents profit unable to receive, even can also give instead of taking the dealer and OEM (original equipment manufacturer) supplier business?” 李牧笑道:“50万台库存如果大幅度降价清盘,苹果可能一毛钱利润都收不回去,甚至还要倒贴经销商和代工商吧？” „Is this.” Louise Martin nods, said: „Before Apple, is strong with the dealer as well as OEM (original equipment manufacturer) supplier business, the dealer first pays the payment for goods to take delivery of goods again, the OEM (original equipment manufacturer) supplier business first delivers presses the cycle to tie the funds again, therefore Apple, if acts perversely, can first fall behind the payment for goods that the dealer has not settled accounts, then through own apple-store clear stock, the cash interception that the clear stock trades , to continue to fall behind the OEM (original equipment manufacturer) supplier business, in this case, several hundred thousand stocks, can receive in exchange over a hundred million USD cash flows to Apple.” “是这样。”路易斯・马丁点了点头,道:“不过苹果之前跟经销商以及代工商都非常强势,经销商先支付货款再提货,代工商先交货再按周期结款,所以苹果如果耍无赖,可以先拖欠经销商未结算的货款,然后通过自己的apple-store清库存,把清库存换回来的现金截留,继续拖欠代工商,这样的话,几十万台的库存,怎么也能给苹果换回上亿美元的现金流。” , Louise Martin supplements one: „This will also bring over a hundred million USD debts to Apple, if Apple has the means that anything collapses, can first take this sum of money to help in an emergency, but if no, temporarily stops this sum of money to be little significance to them, looked that Apple also did have any secret weapon on hand.” 顿了顿,路易斯・马丁补充一句:“不过这也会给苹果带来上亿美元的债务,如果苹果有什么破局的办法,可以先拿这笔钱救急,但如果没有的话,截留这笔钱对他们来说没太大意义,就看苹果手头还有没有什么秘密武器了。” Li Mu somewhat is at heart shocking. 李牧心里有些震惊。 In comparison, oneself and Louise Martin such professional bad is too far, oneself are only thinking the Apple stock price falls suddenly, market value to fall suddenly, profit to fall suddenly, all businesses to be seriously battered, but didn't expect, Apple can also make the introduction , elucidation , transposition and summary with the stock, although opened the dealer and wall of OEM (original equipment manufacturer) supplier business makes up he himself, but the good and evil can also lend hundred million USD cash to come out, this is as the saying goes, camel of skinny is big...... 相比之下,自己与路易斯・马丁这样的专业人士差的太远,自己只想着苹果股价暴跌、市值暴跌、利润暴跌、所有业务受重创,但没想到,苹果还可以用库存做起承转合,虽然是拆了经销商和代工商的墙来补他自己,但好歹也能拆出过亿美元的现金出来,这就是俗话说的,瘦死的骆驼比马大…… In the Apple eye starts definitely to have the rich cash flow, what after all attacked will be the stock price and present and future profit, Li Mu cannot reduce the mobile cash on Apple account, in addition the stock may will transform hundred million USD cash, in addition also truly will be a big number, if Apple takes so much money, compelling the miraculous glow one to do any new gadget anxiously suddenly presently, that could not do well can also be broken through to go out by its adversity, if so, may on really be too damn! 苹果眼下手里肯定还是有丰厚现金流的,毕竟受冲击的是股价以及眼下和未来的利润,李牧并不能减少苹果账上的流动现金,再加上库存有可能转化出来的过亿美元现金,加起来也确实是一笔不小的数目,如果苹果拿着这么多钱,逼急了忽然灵光一现搞出什么新玩意儿,那搞不好还能让它逆境突围出去,如果真是那样,可就真是太操蛋了！ Immediately, Li Mu asked Louise Martin: „If I want to purchase Apple as soon as possible, what good way has?” 随即,李牧问路易斯・马丁:“如果我想尽快收购苹果,有什么好的办法？”
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