MOTGAR :: Volume #10

#915: Real estate bubble and Jack Ma


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A goods price rises. 一件物品价格上涨。 Said simply, is because had the buyer to compete to surpass the seller competition, caused the goods to rise in prices, the specialized term is called the inflation. 简单说,是因为有买家竞争超过了卖家竞争,才导致物品涨价,专业名词叫做通货膨胀。 The house price is also so, behind high house price always unavoidably rich shadow. 房价也是如此,高房价背后总免不了有钱的影子。 Broad money m2( an economic concept, reflected that realistic and potential purchasing power), was often mentioned by the United States experts recently. 广义货币m2(一种经济学概念,反映现实和潜在购买力),最近经常被美国的专家们提及。 Has the economics institute to count, since 1985, during ten years the United States m2 growth had been over two times, this also means, were many in the money in the market circulating, the real estate is these money important flow directions. 有经济研究所统计,自1985年以来,十年间美国m2增长超过两倍,这也就意味着,在市面上流通的钱多了,房地产就是那些钱重要的流向。 This one time had unprecedented the wealth big shift in New York city in the 1990s, during this period did not have the new wealth to be created, merely was the lateral flow of fund. 这是一次20世纪90年代发生在纽约市的规模空前的财富大转移,在这期间没有新的财富被创造,仅仅是资金的横向流动。 A big city and part second-tier cities has a resident, becomes the beneficiary who this wealth shifts automatically, but the wealth of other United States place residents, are actually being felt nothing shrink quietly. 一线大城市和部分二线城市的有房居民,自动成为这次财富转移的受益者,而美国其他地方居民的财富,却在浑然不觉中悄然缩水。 In October of last year to the present, in less than one year of time, New York each square meter house price of rises dramatically on average 183, growth highest belonged to Manhattan the east district, the real estate price rises 227 on average! 去年十月到现在,一年不到的时间里,纽约平均每平方米的房价暴增183,增长速度最高的属于曼哈顿上东区,房地产价格平均上涨227! Han Xuan helps ignite, New York land price like insane, was given to raise unceasingly. 韩宣只是帮忙点了把火,纽约的地价就像疯了一样,不断被人给抬高。 Sees profitably, an important goods person and organization run New York to purchase homes. 见到有利可图,一大帮人和机构跑来纽约买房。 The New York house price rises, the signal that probably the United States real estate market recovers, drives the housing prices of other big cities , the following varying degrees rise, for example San Francisco, the house price grew about 95 compared with the same period last year. 纽约房价上涨,像是个美国楼市复苏的信号,带动其他大城市的房价,也跟着不同程度上涨,比如旧金山,房价比去年同期增长了95左右。 Was called century to rise sharply by the New York native! 纽约当地人称之为“世纪大涨”! The government saw at the beginning of the year is not right. 政府早在年初就看出了不对劲。 The Department of Commerce promulgates the new policy on January 1 of this year, ordering various State authorities to reduce the tax revenue in purchase land play, the major banks are also lowering purchase homes personally the threshold of loan. 商务部在今年1月1号颁布新政策,命令各州政府减少在购置地产交易中的税收,各大银行也在放低个人买房贷款的门槛。 This situation has continued at the end of July. 这种情况一直持续到七月末。 The experts of some government think tanks proposed, this is overdrawing the resident future purchasing power, creates the economical false prosperity, and pushes up the real estate bubble, in 1991 happened in the real estate big bubble of Japan, learned from another's mistakes. 有政府智库的专家提出,这是在透支居民将来的购买力,造成经济虚假繁荣,并且推高房地产泡沫,1991年发生在日本的房地产大泡沫,就是前车之鉴。 Then caused by the attention of Clinton authority government equivalent height gdp becomes confused, is quiet reduces the government's support to the real estate industry. 这才引起了被虚高gdp冲昏头脑的克林顿当局政府的注意,悄无声息间减少政府对房地产行业的支持力度。 Since August. 进入八月以来。 The New York building deal total and in July were more or less flat, that turnover progressively increasing grand occasion has not appeared. 纽约楼房成交总数和七月份基本持平,那种成交量不断递增的盛况没有出现。 Donald knows following some time, the New York real estate market will enter the steady period of expansion, has the operating space very much difficultly again. 唐纳德知道接下来一段时间,纽约楼市会进入平稳的发展期,很难再有操作空间。 Therefore looks at London of Atlantic Ocean opposite shore, he from that fried in the building event to get to know the benefits, wants to duplicate last year approach again 于是将目光投向大西洋对岸的英国伦敦,他从那场炒楼事件中尝到了甜头,想要再次复制去年的做法 Looked over the United States house price trend chart in the past hundred years, will discover that the original house price was not appreciates forever. 纵观美国过去百年间的房价走势图,会发现原来房价并不是永远升值。 Even the appreciation, still small enough to can ignore, even in a long time, the house will also depreciate unceasingly. 即使升值,也小到可以忽略不计,甚至在相当长的时间内,房子还不断贬值。 The Han Xuan impression, in the United States real estate history has only presented specially serious real estate bubble time, that from 2000 to 2006 these seven years, the United States house price rose more than 2 times. 韩宣印象当中,美国房地产历史上仅出现过一次特别严重的楼市泡沫,那就是从2000年到2006年这7年内,美国房价上涨了二倍多。 Causes the global credit crisis that in 2007 starts, this and beforehand United States real estate bubble also has much to do with, part loaned the person who purchases homes to find at that time, oneself used two times of prices to buy a house, immediately stopped supplying the balloon loan, created massive bank bad accounts. 紧接着就造成2007年开始的全球信贷危机,这和之前的美国房地产泡沫也有很大关系,一部分当时贷款买房的人发现,自己用两倍价格买了一栋房子,顿时停止供应分期贷款,造成大量银行坏账。 Rises 2 times merely, called in the United States history the most serious bubble, in 10 years rose 5 times to 10 times to compare with the Huaxia house price, was not worth mentioning simply. 仅仅上涨二倍,也叫美国史上最严重的泡沫,和华夏房价十年内上涨五倍到十倍来比,简直不值一提。 The United States house price in 2006 rises to the peak value, immediately falls suddenly, less than 3 years fall to rise suddenly completely the beforehand price, even return the 100 years ago prices, this is in considering the foundation of inflation, obtained data. 美国房价在2006年涨到峰值后,随即暴跌,不到三年就完全跌回暴涨之前的价格,甚至回到100年前的价格,这是在考虑到通货膨胀的基础上,得出的数据。 Without exception, after the United States real estate market rises suddenly, will drop sharply, pushes in the middle of the real estate bubble, can not collapse like future Huaxia that type of giant real estate market bubble, simply is the miracle. 无一例外,美国楼市暴涨之后,就会大跌,将楼市当中的泡沫挤出去,像将来华夏那种巨大的楼市泡沫能够不崩,简直是奇迹。 But the bubble after all is the bubble, will be used for and actual serious incompatible high price room, 但泡沫毕竟是泡沫,用来将和实际严重不符的高价房, Treats as one store of value investment product, sooner or later will be hapless. Bids up the building in the supervising mechanism perfect developed country, the profit can have 30 is the miracle. 当作一种保值投资产品,早晚有一天要倒霉。在监督机制完善的发达国家炒楼,利润能有30就已经是奇迹。 Donald this time not only sold piled up the estate in hand, but also to be equivalent to the October of last year 120 prices to sell rapidly, causing him to become the celebrities in United States real estate developer suddenly, many people followed he to get rich, obtain the given name of king of New York real estate. 唐纳德这次不仅卖出了积压在手里的楼盘,而且还是以相当于去年十月份120的价格迅速卖出去,导致他一时间成了美国房地产商中的风头人物,许多人跟着他发了财,得到纽约地产之王的名号。 After Han Xuan hears Donald's words, immediately is lost in thought. 韩宣听到唐纳德的话后,随即陷入了沉思。 Britain several years ago in behind in the battle of influence with Soros, the vitality damaged severely, the economic development the present has not recovered consciousness, that the early 90's economical rising momentum was unable to recover. 英国前几年在和索罗斯背后势力的争斗中,元气大伤,经济发展到现在还没有缓过来,那种90年代初的经济上扬势头一蹶不振。 It looks like in Han Xuan, the present is not the best congenial time, therefore he says: „ First waits. 韩宣看来,如今并不是最好的投机时间段,于是他开口说道:“先等等。 You first construct a number of houses in London, Manchester, Liverpool and other British cities, do not worry to sell, when the time appropriate time, I inform you again. 你先在伦敦、曼彻斯特、利物浦等英国重要城市建造一批房子,别着急全都卖出去,等到时机合适时候,我再通知你。 Previous time that group of people who hype the New York real estate market you remain, they experienced. ” 上次炒作纽约楼市的那帮人你都留着,他们有经验。” Donald is frank that cannot keep the words, pursues immediately asks: Now is why inappropriate?” 唐纳德是个藏不住话的直性子,立马追问道:“为什么现在不合适?” In British people does not have money, whom did the house construct you to sell to?” 英国人手里没钱,房子建好了你卖给谁?” Han Xuan asked him. 韩宣反问他。 ...... …… In the Silicon Valley range does not have the big city, cannot drive to go to San Francisco, to have lunch. 硅谷范围内没有大型城市,总不能开车去旧金山,就为了吃一顿午餐吧。 In Santa Clara sees named „a square guest Chinese restaurant, Han Xuan racket front seat, making the driver stop. 在圣克拉拉市区见到一家名叫“四方客”的中餐馆,韩宣拍拍前面座椅,让司机停车。 Donald looks to out of the window, he does not like having the greasy Chinese meal, especially this type looked not the hygienic small Chinese restaurant had not said that goes down the car(riage) with them, reorganizes the suit. 唐纳德看向窗外,他并不喜欢吃油腻的中餐,尤其还是这种一看就不卫生的小中餐馆不过并没有多说,跟着他们走下车,整理西装。 Anya is learning French and Chinese now, although she is intelligent, but not anomaly like Han Xuan and Isabeli. 安雅如今在学习法语和中文,她虽然聪明,但不像韩宣和伊莎贝莉那样变态。 In order to learn/study these two languages, putting many thoughts to study, said that some daily spoken languages almost did not have the issue, but the reading books and bumped into some remote glossaries time, was scared. 为了学习这两种语言,花了不少心思专研,说一些日常的口语几乎没有问题,但阅读书籍和碰到一些偏僻词汇的时候,就傻眼了。 Han Xuan spends the time to help her counsel a lot, although said often Anya is the young fool, may know at heart her talent for language, has striven to excel compared with most people that little, but usually lacks the practice. 韩宣没少花时间帮她辅导,尽管经常说安雅是小笨蛋,可心里知道她的语言天赋,已经比大部分人要强那么一点点,只是平常缺乏练习而已。 At this moment, Anya points is carving the red couplet on gate two sides wood/blockhead, read every single word or phrase: „ Guest turns over to the native place is still a guest, living at four Hayes is the family/home. 此刻,安雅指着刻在门两边木头上的红色对联,一字一句读道:“客归故里犹是客,家居四海斯为家。 Han, what is this? ” 韩,这是什么意思?” Is leaves the hometown probably, all sea for the meaning of family/home.” “大概是离开故乡,四海为家的意思吧。” Han Xuan said at will. 韩宣随意说道。 The American itself/Ben runs up to these people in North America continent mainland from the all over the world, composed country, their provincialism are deficient. 美国人本就是从世界各地跑到北美洲大陆的那些人,组成的国家,他们的乡土观念非常缺乏。 The matter that majority just the grown child, most hoped is far away from the hometown, in all directions wanderer. 大多数刚成年的孩子,最希望的事情就是远离家乡,四处闯荡。 Therefore Donald and Anya, Harris they are incomprehensible, why to in the restaurant entrance write this type of sentence. 因此唐纳德和安雅、哈里斯他们并不能理解,为什么要在餐馆门口写这种句子。 Enters the restaurant, now is just the lunchtime, inside guest are very many. 走进餐厅,现在刚好是午餐时间,里面的客人挺多。 Silicon Valley has many talents from the world, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Huaxia resident is not infrequent. 硅谷有许多来自世界各地的人才,其中香江、宝岛、华夏的居民不在少数。 Was sick of eating the western-style food, they will arrive in this nearby town the only Chinese restaurant to change the taste occasionally. 吃腻了西餐,他们偶尔会来到这家附近镇子上唯一的中餐馆换换口味。 Among these diners, there is a fellow who sea eats the beef noodles an earnestly, attracted the Han Xuan attention, even can say that his present expression simply is dumbfounded. 在那些食客当中,有个埋头海吃牛肉面的家伙,吸引了韩宣的注意力,甚至可以说他现在的表情简直是目瞪口呆。 Classical 3-7 hair part and capitellum big forehead, this now is seemingly strange, who afterward actually became the face of classical is not Jack Ma can also be?( To be continued.) 经典的三七开发型、小头大脑门,这副现在看起来古怪,后来却成为经典款的脸庞不是马云还能是谁?(未完待续。)
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