MOTGAR :: Volume #19

#1829: Credit default swap

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The risk itself/Ben is the thing that people cannot see, if the risk can know in advance ahead of time that did not call the risk, if knows that had certain risk also to fear to have trouble on all sides, this can only explain that somebody was not suitable to make the investment. 风险本就是人们看不到的东西,如果风险可以提前预知,那就不叫风险了,如果知道存在一定的风险也怕前狼后虎,这只能说明某个人不适合做投资。 Wall Street actually has many such people, if must summarize, Han Xuan will say that the overwhelming majority management of many company, only will actually sit in the office is waiting with the wages, or will only pay out the wages to others, regarding the owner in enterprise, the value fully cannot manifest, will therefore possibly fire an employee momentarily. 华尔街其实有许多这样的人,假如非要总结,韩宣会说很多公司的绝大部分管理层,其实都只会坐在办公室里等着拿工资,或者只会给别人发工资,对于企业的所有者来说,价值完全体现不出来,所以随时可能会被炒鱿鱼。 Fortunately Han Xuan does not need to be worried about these things temporarily, his investment arm formed the new company, at present is also maintaining the sufficient vigor, the staff who these head-hunting companies helped lure, truly did right by the price that started out. 幸运的是韩宣暂时不用担心这些事情,他的投资部门都是重新组建起来了新公司,目前还保持着充足的活力,那些猎头公司帮忙挖过来的员工,确实对得起开出的价格。 One group the working zeal and able financiers group in the same place, are acted as the brain by Han Xuan, causing the company to erupt the huge working zeal, proceeds to develop unceasingly, is Han Xuan brings the enormous capital, energetic big company like him, can say that the entire Wall Street cannot discover second. 一帮有干劲、有能力的金融家们组在一起,由韩宣充当大脑,导致公司爆发出巨大的干劲,不断往前发展,为韩宣带来庞大资金,像他这样有活力的大公司,可以说整个华尔街都找不出第二家。 Like Citigroup, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns and so on enterprise, looks like in Han Xuan is not anything, they are busy courting death now with all one's heart, attempts to sell the credit default swap wait/etc and real estate related business, this part truly can make money in the initial period, however the consequence will be to create the previous generation in 2008 time's financial crisis. 像花旗、雷曼兄弟、贝尔斯登之类的企业,在韩宣看来并不算什么,它们如今正一门心思地忙着找死呢,企图卖信用违约掉期等等和房地产相关的业务,这部分在初期确实可以赚钱,然而后果是造成前世2008年时候的金融危机。 Do not think that now in these people who on this street work, really extremely intelligent, before the previous generation sub-prime loan crisis arrives, many Wall Street elites have not expected unexpectedly completely. 千万别以为如今在这条街上工作的那些人,真的聪明绝顶,前世次贷危机到来之前,很多华尔街精英们居然完全没有预料到。 As a result of thinking oneself clever, therefore before they neglect the crisis broke out all sorts of indications, not being able to see more and more person home loans, unable to see the house price to rise and unable to see people to purchase homes the loan time, the bank does not even look at their credits. 正是由于自作聪明,于是他们忽略了危机爆发前的种种征兆,看不见越来越多人不还房贷、也看不见房价疯涨、更看不见人们买房贷款时候,银行甚至不看他们的信用。 Han Xuan in wants to understand a truth at age 12, that is the use sheep benefit makes money, so long as completes to the guidance of public opinion, builds safe and stable, and high profit false appearance, the world economy is his cash machine! 韩宣在12岁那年想明白一个道理,那就是利用群羊效益来挣钱,只要做好对舆论的引导,营造出安全、稳定、以及高利润的假象,世界经济都是他的提款机！ What is most wonderful, even does not use the unfaithful/stamen thought means that erupted a few years ago their approach by the sub-prime loan crisis, can deceive the money, Han Xuan has known the result, was just like knows in other manpower the gambler of sign, the front also had enough chip, wants to lose difficultly. 最最最美妙的是,甚至不用花心思想办法,靠次贷危机爆发前些年他们的做法,就可以骗到一大笔钱,韩宣已经知道结果,好比知道其他人手里牌的赌徒,面前又有足够的筹码,想输都难。 Reason that said these , because chief executive officer Mr. Dick Foard of last night time Lehman Brothers telephones to Han Xuan, said oneself have the excellent investment idea, is several mathematical experts in their company devises, hopes that can cooperate the investment with Han Xuan. 之所以说这些,是因为昨晚时候雷曼兄弟的首席执行官迪克-富尔德先生打了个电话给韩宣,说自己有个绝好的投资主意,是他们公司的几位数学专家构想出来的,希望能够和韩宣一起合作投资。 According to model that group of mathematical experts build, demonstrated that if using it to invest in the real estate industry, will receive the sufficient return, however this is the novel investment pattern, that group of tops of Lehman Brothers lack self-confidence, therefore attempts to cooperate with Han Xuan together. 根据那帮数学专家们建立起来的模型,显示如果采用它投资于房地产行业,将会获得充足回报,然而这是种新颖的投资方式,雷曼兄弟的那帮高层们心里没底,于是就企图来跟韩宣一起合作。 Now Lehman Brothers is a company of moderate scale, East West Bank to it, is colossus that needs to look up. 如今雷曼兄弟算是一家中等规模的公司,华美银行对它而言,算是需要仰望的庞然大物。 Imagines, for example Han Xuan East West Bank general manager, telephoned to Lehman Brothers that side said: „ Recently 100 home loan customers, everyone to us taking advantage of 1 million US dollars one year, we planned to purchase your insurances, to prevent them to break a contract. 想象一下,例如韩宣的华美银行总经理,打电话给雷曼兄弟那边说:“最近一百位房贷客户,每人向我们借一百万美元一年,我们打算购买你们的保险,以防止他们违约。 From the application form, we think that each of them has 3% violation probabilities, how many insurance charges are quite appropriate? ” 从申请表格来看,我们认为他们每个人存在百分之三的违约几率,多少保险费用比较合适？” 100 customers, everyone have 3% violation opportunities, therefore anticipated probably three customers will break a contract next year, in other words, Lehman Brothers needs to pay 3 million US dollars next year, the supposition interest rate every year is 3%, then now only value 2.91 million US dollars. 一百位客户,每人存在百分之三的违约机会,因此大概预期三位客户明年违约,也就是说,明年雷曼兄弟将需要支付三百万美元,假设利率每年为百分之三,那么现在只价值二百九十一万美元。 Therefore, the Han Xuan East West Bank has to pay at least 2.91 million US dollars for the insurance, Lehman Brothers is not the charity, to make money, they will double the price, is 5.82 million US dollars insurance premium, and anticipated that these transactions may gain 2.91 million US dollars on average. This insurance is called credit default swap ( cds ). 因此,韩宣的华美银行不得不支付至少二百九十一万美元用于保险,雷曼兄弟也不是慈善机构,为了赚钱,他们将增加一倍的价格,也就是五百八十二万美元保费,并预期这些交易平均可赚二百九十一万美元。这种保险被称为信用违约掉期(cds)。 At the beginning of this insurance the insurance company participates, but because the profit is too high, 这种保险初期只有保险公司参与,但由于利润实在太高, Afterward also participated in the bank and private investment organization, the scale was getting bigger and bigger. Wall Street thinks naively people will repay, the bank also wants to make money, therefore let loose the loan, in addition the house price rises all the way, in a big way causes the credit default swap the scale to astonishing! 后来将银行、私人投资机构也参与进来,规模越来越大。华尔街天真地认为人们都会还贷,银行也想赚钱,于是放开了贷款,再加上房价一路上涨,导致信用违约掉期的规模大到惊人！ Because is too big, Lehman naturally can worry, therefore promoted „CDO securities”, these companies thought people will not break a contract , because since the 1920s, United States has not had the national large-scale house price to fall, therefore estimates about 3% violation rates. 因为太大,雷曼自然会担心,于是推出了的“债务抵押债券”,这些公司之所以觉得人们不会违约,是由于本世纪二十年代以来,美国都没有发生过全国性的大规模房价下跌,于是估算出百分之三左右的违约率。 Has not actually thought of bubble burst, person three of violation, reach as high as more than ten incessantly, after they feel the house price depreciation, owes, therefore refuses to pay the loan, the violation part needs the insurance company and bank pays the compensation! 却没想到泡沫破灭,违约的人不止三个,高达十多个,他们觉得房价贬值后太亏,于是拒绝支付贷款,违约部分都需要保险公司和银行支付赔偿！ This also has the critical junction with the approach of bank is because to have the insurance company is supporting behind, the bank did not fear that the credit unsatisfactory customers break a contract, the insurance company will lose money in any case, develops to be jealous in these insurance company incomes finally, oneself also participate, it can be said that oneself dug a pit oneself gives the pit, over 0% twenty lenders, actually did not have the basic condition of stable repayments, 这跟银行的做法也存在很大关系因为有保险公司在身后撑腰,银行不怕信用不佳的顾客们违约,反正保险公司会赔钱,发展到最后眼红于这些保险公司收益,自己也参与进去,可以说是自己挖坑把自己给坑了,超过百分之二十几的贷款者,其实并不具备稳定还款的基本条件, Therefore, after ancestors bubble burst, Lehman Brothers intent owed 60 billion US dollars, was in bankruptcy directly. 因此,上辈子泡沫破灭后,雷曼兄弟意外欠下了六百亿美元,直接陷入破产局面。 Han Xuan fears with the ordinary investor very much to the gambling, because their mentalities and approaches are unable to ponder over, but does business with the investors in Wall Street, instead makes him feel relaxed, developed the most century time, these people have formed certain thought inertias. 韩宣很怕和普通投资者对赌,因为他们的心态和做法无法琢磨,而跟华尔街的投资者们做生意,反而让他更觉得轻松,发展了大半个世纪时间,这些人已经形成了某些思维惯性。 The Internet bubble evaporates the world three to about 5 trillion US dollars wealth, he fishes to 200 billion US dollars from all sides loads into the pocket, this is not at present the digit of stock value, although is depreciating unceasingly, but the bubble just now is shattered for less than one month, their depreciation scopes are limited. 互联网泡沫蒸发掉全球三到五万亿美元左右财富,他前前后后捞到两千亿美元装进自己口袋里,这还是不算目前股票本身价值的数字,虽说正在不断贬值,但泡沫才刚破灭一个月不到,它们的贬值幅度有限。 The sub-prime loan market size, compared with the Internet industry scale mostly, after all is the established real estate industry, is not the emerging Internet industry can compare, so long as seizes the good opportunity, this is also a making money opportunity, therefore Han Xuan runs, one side prepares to see with the executive officers of Lehman Brothers. 次贷的市场规模,比互联网产业规模大多了,毕竟是老牌的地产行业,不是新兴互联网产业能够比的,只要把握好机会,这也是一次赚大钱的机会,所以韩宣屁颠屁颠跑来,准备和雷曼兄弟公司的执行官见一面。 Sits in the helicopter, Han Xuan is looking at the gliding parachute of distant place, recalled that jumped down from the sky...... said accurately was pushed down the airplane later scene by Gabriel, the wind was very big, scenery is very beautiful, during falling, after more than ten seconds, after the umbrella opened fluttered in the sky for 67 minutes, if were not the back is tying up individual, that feeling was definitely better. 坐在直升机里,韩宣望着远处的滑翔伞,回想起自己从天空中跳下来……准确说是被加布里尔推下飞机之后的场面,风很大、风景也很美,下坠期间经过十多秒,在伞撑开后又在天空中飘了六七分钟,如果不是背后绑着个人,那感觉肯定更好。 Han Xuan is all right, actually Ji Suk-jin except for ugly, frightened directly urinates the pants, finally also squeezed the smile facing the lens, can say to snatch the mirror was also ready for any sacrifice...... 韩宣没什么事,倒是池石镇除了丑,直接吓得尿了裤子,最后还挤出笑容面对镜头,可以说为了抢镜也算是豁出去了…… Browsing reading address: 浏览阅读地址:
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