In a Firefly Headquarters small conference room, Warren Buffett forehead tight wrinkle, fast is reading the present clover fund investment material. 萤火虫总部一间小会议室里,沃伦・巴菲特眉宇紧皱,飞快地阅读着眼前的三叶草基金投资材料。 Buffett thinks that he wants to look the stock investment combination of clover fund will be rejected by Eric, this after all is a business secret of company, even if he is also the Firefly Group shareholder, if Eric insisted that he cannot see. 巴菲特原本以为,自己想要看一下三叶草基金的股票投资组合会遭到艾瑞克的拒绝,这毕竟是一家公司的商业机密,即使他也是萤火虫集团的股东,艾瑞克如果坚持,他还是看不到的。 However, what making Buffett accidental is, Eric actually refreshedly complies, even has not made him sign any confidentiality agreement. 不过,让巴菲特意外的是,艾瑞克却非常爽快地答应下来,甚至都没有让他签署什么保密协议。 Now, reads pages of materials in hand, Buffett was also realizing why Eric will not garrison to him completely. 现在,看着手中的一页页资料,巴菲特也意识到艾瑞克为什么会对他完全不设防。 The stock investment combination of clover fund main centralized in three domains. 三叶草基金的股票投资组合主要集中在三个领域。 The first kind is the Internet hi-tech stock, the main investment objective including Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, AOL, SUN, Oracle, this kind of stock occupies more than 50% of total investment scale. 第一类是互联网科技股,主要投资目标包括微软、英特尔、思科、AOL、SUN、甲骨文等,这一类的股票占据总投资规模的一半以上。 The second kind is carrier stock, is AT-T, Sprint, Verizon and other companies, part of investment ratios probably are 30%. 第二类是电信企业股票,也就是AT-T、Sprint、Verizon等公司,这一部分投资比例大概是30%。 Finally less than 20% investments pressed on several large-scale cable television operators, was Comcast, the long-range communication and foundation wired even also has Time Warner and other companies. 最后不到20%的投资都压在了几家大型的有线电视运营商身上,也就是康卡斯特、远程通信、基础有线甚至还有时代华纳等公司。 Simply speaking, these three kinds of company stocks basically are at present very irritable hi-tech stocks. 简单来说,这三类公司股票基本上都是目前非常火爆的科技股。 In recent years, the large scale investment fund young odd dealer, basically is pursuing these type stocks. Therefore, even if foreign the investment portfolio of clover fund, in bystander opinion, does not have any special place. 最近几年,无论是大型投资基金还是小散户,基本上都在追逐这些类型的股票。因此,即使将三叶草基金的投资组合对外公开,在外人看来,也没有任何特别的地方。 But in the Buffett eye, the investment portfolio of Eric completely belongs to act unreasonably, without any methodicalness. 而在巴菲特眼里,艾瑞克的这种投资组合就完全属于乱来,没有任何章法。 Usually, a stock investment of fund combines is more complex, the anti- risk ability is stronger. But similarly, this fund wants to obtain the possibility of high repayment to be also lower. Because of the stock investment of diversification, will make this fund the investment return ratio maintain consistent with the entire market bulk lots. 通常来说,一家基金的股票投资组合越复杂,抗风险能力就越强。但同样,这家基金想要获得高回报的可能性也就越低。因为多样化的股票投资,会让这家基金的投资回报率与整个市场大盘保持一致。 The outstanding investor, can always run to win the bulk lots. Reason that Buffett were called the stock god, lies in the Berkshire Hathaway yearly rate during dozens years basically can fling to clear the way above by far the Jones index ten percentage points. 出色的投资人,从来都是能够跑赢大盘的。巴菲特自己之所以被人称之为股神,就在于伯克希尔哈撒韦的年增长率几十年间基本上都能远远甩开道琼斯指数十个百分点以上。 An investment return ratio of fund maintains consistent with the bulk lots, looks like in Buffett, this absolutely does not have any significance. Because the stock market bulk lots grow, actually also means the overall growth of national economy, if rises except the price again, currency inflation and other factors, the actual value and purchasing power of property will not have the too big change. 一家基金的投资回报率与大盘保持一致,在巴菲特看来,这根本就没有任何意义。因为股市大盘增长,其实也就意味着国家经济的整体增长,如果再除去物价上扬、货币通胀等因素,资产的实际价值和购买力并不会出现太大的变化。 Naturally, Buffett also understands that Eric this is betting the new wave of bull market of NASDAQ market to arrive, then seizes the chance to carry on the stock arbitrage, this in fact was also equal to running to win ‚bulk lots’. Buffett does not oppose the stock arbitrage, he also frequently such does. Just, regarding the stock of arbitrage nature, Buffett can never have for a long time, will not have the destination long-term big pen to buy up to Eric like this. 当然,巴菲特也明白,艾瑞克这是在赌纳斯达克市场的新一波牛市到来,然后趁机进行股票套利,这样实际上也就等于跑赢了‘大盘’。巴菲特并不反对股票套利,他自己也经常这么做。只不过,对于套利性质的股票,巴菲特从来不会长期持有,更不会向艾瑞克这样毫无目的地长期大笔买进。 However, sees the final clover fund stock asset value, the Buffett brow, although has not stretched, actually cannot bear be flabbergasted. 不过,看到最后的三叶草基金股票资产总值,巴菲特眉头虽然没有舒展,却也忍不住咋舌。 Two years, around this investments of 5 billion USD, rose in value 9 100 million USD. 两年时间,这前后50亿美元的投资,已经增值到了91亿美元。 If can dump the stock of clover fund completely, except tax affairs, in addition Firefly Group earnings, the net profit of this company whole year over 7 billion USD. 如果能够将三叶草基金的股票全部抛售,除去税务,再加上萤火虫集团本身的盈余,这家公司全年的净利润将会超过70亿美元。 1997 majority of company wealth report had not disclosed that but, Buffett actually clearly remembers that 1996, the North America year gained highest General Motors Corporation, the annual net profit also 68. 800 million USD. 1997年的大部分公司财报都还没有披露,不过,巴菲特却清楚地记得,1996年度,北美年盈利最高的通用汽车公司,全年净利润也才68.8亿美元。 As a top investor, Buffett has not put down the material in hand, cannot help but started to consider at heart, if have these 7 billion USD, how should invest. 作为一个顶尖的投资人,巴菲特还没有放下手中的资料,心里就已经不由自主地开始考虑,如果自己拥有这70亿美元,该怎么进行投资。 Perhaps, should settle on for a long time state insurance company whole to buy first oneself, but can also increase holds the Coca Cola stock. With hand compared with the high risk stocks of these universal 50-60 times of market profits, insurance company and Coca Cola and so on company can bring the long-term stable income the best investment objective. 或许,应该先把自己看中已久的国家保险公司整体买下来,还可以增持可口可乐的股票。与手中这些普遍五六十倍市盈率的高风险股票相比,保险公司、可口可乐之类的公司才是能够带来长期稳定收益的最佳投资目标。 When Eric enters the conference room, just sees the old man such old god in the place ponder or being in a daze. 艾瑞克走进会议室时,刚好就看到老头子这么老神在在地思考或者发呆。 Felt that a person's shadow sits down in oneself opposite, Buffett responded that put down the document in hand, took down the presbyopic glasses to saying: „Eric, I want to know that actually you how do plan?” 感觉到一个人影在自己对面坐下,巴菲特才反应过来,放下手中的文件,取下老花镜对说道:“艾瑞克,我想知道,你究竟是怎么打算的？” „This year Firefly again one after another will also invest 2 billion USD to buy up the hi-tech stock, I planned that is the next big expansion of Firefly Group accumulates a capital, this, the company can reduce the equity transaction proportion as far as possible.” “今年萤火虫还会再陆续投入20亿美元买入科技股,我打算为萤火虫集团的下一次大扩张积累一笔资本,这样,公司就可以尽量减少股权交易比例。” Buffett shook the head slightly, said: „Eric, you have not experienced the stock disaster, does not know this fearfully, but I have seen, some billionaires, faced with the stock disaster, only will sometimes require day of time possibly to go bankrupt. These stocks of clover fund investment, in my opinion, once the stock disaster occurred, majority of possibly in a short time breaks your buying up price.” 巴菲特微微摇了摇头,道:“艾瑞克,你没有经历过股灾,不知道这到底有多可怕,但我见过,一些亿万富翁,面临股灾,有时候只需要一天时间可能就会破产。三叶草基金投资的这些股票,在我看来,一旦股灾发生,大部分都可能在短期内跌破你的买入价格。” „Warren, I am not the greedy person, therefore, I thought when I can act bashful this seizing the chance standpoint,” Eric smiled, said self-confidently. “沃伦,我不是贪婪的人,所以,我觉得我还是能够拿捏好什么时候该趁机立场的,”艾瑞克笑了笑,自信地说道。 Reason that Eric shows the stock investment combination of clover fund in front of Buffett without hesitation , because his very self-confident these materials will not bring any useful information to Buffett. The own most important card in a hand, is actually to future being prescient. 艾瑞克之所以毫不犹豫地将三叶草基金的股票投资组合展现在巴菲特面前,就是因为他很自信这些资料并不会给巴菲特带来任何有用的信息。自己最重要的底牌,其实是对未来的先知先觉。 Although the rise and drop of NASDAQ index will receive Eric this more or less only ‚butterfly’ influence, but a general economy development trend of national level will not have the too big change, the Eric current influence could not have been this degree. 虽然纳斯达克指数的涨跌或多或少会受到艾瑞克这只‘蝴蝶’的影响,但一个国家层面的整体经济发展趋势并不会有太大改变,艾瑞克目前的影响力还达不到这种程度。 Buffett shook the head once more, said: „I appreciate superintendent's long-term layout to a company very much, necessity that but in my opinion, you completely have not take risked now.” 巴菲特再次摇了摇头,道:“我是很欣赏一个管理者对公司的长远布局的,但在我看来,你现在完全没有冒险的必要。” Eric lets go saying: „Warren, I have not take risked. These 5 billion USD, as well as this year plan 2 billion USD, is Firefly Group surplus funds. Even if lost all completely, although somewhat was a pity that actually cannot injure the Firefly Group basis. If must take risk, I currently will use definitely the investment release lever, 5 billion USD capital, the pry 2-3 10 billion USD capital are very relaxed.” 艾瑞克摊手道:“沃伦,我并没有冒险啊。这50亿美元,以及今年计划中的20亿美元,都是萤火虫集团本身的结余资金。即使全部输光了,虽然有些可惜,却也伤害不到萤火虫集团的根本。如果要冒险,我现在肯定会使用投资杠杆了,50亿美元的本金,撬起两三百亿美元的资本还是很轻松的。” Although Buffett thought as before the investment of Eric extremely take risks, but also has to nod to approve his words. 巴菲特虽然依旧觉得艾瑞克的这笔投资太过冒险,但也不得不点头认可他的话。 However, even if has with the rich profit prospect, Buffett too does not approve of the Eric action at heart as before, he wants to grasp the fund in the investment that in own hand carries on itself to want. 不过,即使有着跟丰厚的利润前景,巴菲特心里依旧不太赞同艾瑞克的举动,他更想把资金握在自己手中进行自己想要的投资。 The ownership percentage of Berkshire Hathaway to Firefly is 5% , 1996 year Firefly Group net profit is 1.7 billion 60 million USD, drawing bonus that Berkshire Hathaway obtains achieves 8 8 million USD, but in the same year, Berkshire Hathaway net profit 7. 2.5 billion USD. In other words, Berkshire Hathaway to Firefly Group 5% owning stocks, the year income of bringing surpasses its whole year profit 10%. As a multiplex investment company, 10% profit proportions, are very important. 伯克希尔哈撒韦对萤火虫的持股比例为5%,1996年度萤火虫集团的净利润为17亿6000万美元,伯克希尔哈撒韦获得的分红就达到8800万美元,而同一年,伯克希尔哈撒韦的净利润才7.25亿美元。也就是说,伯克希尔哈撒韦对萤火虫集团5%的持股,带来的年收益就超过它全年利润的10%。作为一家多元化投资公司,10%的利润比例,还是非常重要的。 Eric also guessed that from the Buffett expression his approximate idea, said with a smile: „Warren, you can definitely sell to me Firefly Group in Berkshire Hathaway hand actually, deferred to recently the estimate value of Wall Street to Firefly Group 100 billion USD, 5% stocks, 5 billion USD, did you think what kind of?” 艾瑞克从巴菲特的表情中也猜测出了他的大致想法,笑着说道:“沃伦,其实你完全可以把伯克希尔哈撒韦手中的萤火虫集团卖给我,就按照最近华尔街对萤火虫集团1000亿美元的估值,5%的股份,50亿美元,你觉得怎么样？” Firefly Group definitely is unable to take 5 billion USD funds now one time, but, if other Buffett or shareholders are willing to give up the stock in hand, in the Eric short-term collects 5 billion USD not too big difficulties. 萤火虫集团现在肯定是无法一次性拿出50亿美元资金的,不过,如果巴菲特或者其他股东愿意放弃手中的股票,艾瑞克短期内筹集50亿美元也没有太大难度。 „Eric, I will not give up to owning stocks of Firefly Group.” Buffett hear of Eric said that shakes the head without hesitation, said with a laugh. “艾瑞克,我是不会放弃对萤火虫集团的持股的。”巴菲特听艾瑞克这么说,毫不犹豫地摇摇头,笑呵呵道。 He has studied the Firefly Group present development situation in detail, although this company the scale is getting more and more huge, but does not have any redundancy extremely fat trend. 他详细研究过萤火虫集团现在的发展状况,这家公司虽然规模越来越庞大,但却没有任何冗余臃肿的趋势。 Entire Firefly Group, Firefly Pictures and new line Film Industry, Disney Film Industry and Bowei international distribution company and ABC TV Network, AE TV Network and ESPN TV Station and Pixar animation studio, Disneyland and digital domain wait/etc., this long Liezi Corporation can bring the rich profit to the parent company completely the premium asset, such can realize the stock of large-scale media group the multiplication actually the unified whole complements one another, is Buffett is simply long-awaited. 整个萤火虫集团旗下,萤火虫影业、新线影业、迪斯尼影业、博伟国际发行公司、ABC电视网、AE电视网、ESPN电视台、皮克斯动画工作室、迪斯尼乐园、数字领域等等,这长长的一列子公司全部都是能够给母公司带来丰厚利润的优质资产,这样的一家能够实现多元化却又浑然一体相辅相成的大型传媒集团的股份,简直是巴菲特梦寐以求的。 So long as Eric does not make in his opinion completely impervious company development strategy, Buffett will not sell the Firefly Group stock absolutely. After all, even if unable to draw bonus from the Firefly Group gain profit, but the stock of this kind of company, in future many years, is doomed to realize the stable increment. 只要艾瑞克不作出在他看来完全不可理喻的公司发展策略,巴菲特绝对不会卖出萤火虫集团的股份。毕竟,就算无法从萤火虫集团获取利润分红,但这样一家公司的股票,在未来很多年里,也注定是能够实现稳定增值的。 Eric had not counted on that Buffett will sell the stock in hand, but said: „Warren, you can also tell other people, if they want to sell the Firefly Group stock at any time, I can give the most generous buy back price. The Firefly Group yearly rate is actually very low, I will think the next few years, they definitely to the NASDAQ hi-tech stock heart movement, will want to invest really need money.” 艾瑞克也没有指望巴菲特会卖出手中的股份,不过还是道:“沃伦,你也可以告诉其他人,如果他们任何时候想要卖出萤火虫集团股份,我都可以给出最慷慨的回购价格。萤火虫集团的年增长率其实还是很低的,我想未来几年,他们肯定会对纳斯达克科技股心动,想要投资可是很需要钱的。” Buffett has patted front clover fund investment material, said: „In my opinion, this is only one pile of bubbles.” 巴菲特拍了拍面前的三叶草基金投资资料,道:“在我看来,这只是一堆泡沫而已。” „I do not believe that” Eric shakes the head, said: „After Southeast Asia economic crisis, the innumerable hot money will rush North America, bubble when the time comes, hundred million USD pile up surely, even if shatter, remaining things regarding us, is a huge wealth.” “我可不这么认为,”艾瑞克摇头,道:“东南亚经济危机之后,无数热钱将会涌向北美,到时候,千万亿美元堆积起来的泡沫,即使破碎,剩下的东西对于我们来说,也是一笔巨大的财富。” On the Buffett face is having the temperate smiling face as before, shakes the head saying: „ Eric, I will not receive your misleading, the criterion that I invest does not involve the not familiar domain. If I settle on a company, I will study it first thoroughly, will then get rid. 巴菲特脸上依旧带着温和的笑容,摇头道:“艾瑞克,我可不会受到你的蛊惑的,我投资的准则就是不涉及自己不熟悉的领域。如果我看中一家公司,我会先把它研究透彻,然后才会出手。 You think carefully, this point, is suitable to you similarly. Firefly Group and Firefly in investment your hand, as well as the innumerable subsidiary company, has developed very big scale, although you now are also maintaining to these companies the good control strength, but you will have the feeling of lacking the ability to do what one would like sooner or later, at that time, you must do, discards the not familiar domain, develops the pinnacle the thing that you can control. ” 你仔细想想吧,这一点,对你来说同样是适用的。你手中的萤火虫集团和萤火虫投资,以及旗下数不清的子公司,都已经发展到了非常大的规模,虽然你现在对这些公司还保持着不错的掌控力,但你早晚会产生力不从心的感觉,那时候,你要做的,就是舍弃自己不熟悉的领域,把你可以掌控的东西发展到极致。” Eric nods, said: „Therefore, among the North America occupation Manager person, I most admires is Jack Welch.” 艾瑞克点点头,道:“所以,在北美的职业经理人当中,我最佩服的就是杰克・韦尔奇了。” „If you are interested, I can help you recommend, but, Jack was infatuated with the management about environment, this was also not the good deed, the General Electric service in fact became extremely fat. I thought that over the next ten years, is forced on own initiative, General Electric will reduce the service gradually.” “如果你感兴趣的话,我可以帮你引荐一下,不过,杰克过于迷恋多元化经营了,这也并不是什么好事,通用电气的业务实际上已经变得臃肿。我觉得,未来十年,无论是主动还是被迫,通用电气都会逐渐缩减业务。” Buffett said that also analyzes to say full of enthusiasm: The initial period that „ actually, Jack takes office, starts from the fine scissors service, at that time the General Electric service and staff member system extremely fat could not withstand, Jack once reduced from eight General Electric management level to three, this company can have no ideological problems weighing on the mind, develops the present to have more than 100 subsidiary company property close 300 billion USD scales. 巴菲特说完,又兴致勃勃地分析道:“其实,杰克上任的初期,就是从精剪业务开始的,当时通用电气的业务和职员体系都臃肿不堪,杰克一度把通用电气的管理层次从八层缩减到三层,这家公司才得以轻装上阵,发展到现在拥有100多家子公司资产接近3000亿美元的规模。 But the operation concept of any superintendent possibly is not perfect, although Jack has guaranteed General Electric this for more than 10 years rapid growth splendidly, but these many years, issue that because the flaw of his management style accumulates, will be doomed to be getting more and more serious. For example management about environment of Jack love, in my opinion, General Electric has more than 100 subsidiary companies, like NBC TV Network and so on, basically does not need. If the next superintendent is unable to solve the problem that he leaves behind perfectly, General Electric will move toward the decline unavoidably. ” 但任何管理者的经营理念都不可能是完美无缺的,杰克虽然出色地保证了通用电气这十多年来的快速发展,但这么多年时间,由于他本身管理风格的缺陷积累下来的问题,也注定会越来越严重。比如杰克过于迷恋的多元化经营,在我看来,通用电气旗下拥有100多家子公司,像NBC电视网之类,基本上都是没必要。如果下一任管理者无法完美地解决他遗留下来的问题,通用电气难免会走向衰落。” Eric is listening to the analysis of Buffett earnestly, when he said that asked with a smile: „Have you, Warren, you wielded Berkshire Hathaway to exceed the 30 year?” 艾瑞克认真地听着巴菲特的分析,等他说完,笑着问道:“那你呢,沃伦,你可是已经执掌伯克希尔哈撒韦超过三十年了啊？” „Different, this different, what General Electric management is the entity industry, what I do is the equity investment, in these years I had not stopped the change investment portfolio. Let alone. Berkshire Hathaway present market value also only then 390 hundred million USD, for me, to ‚extremely fat’ also difference is very far.” “不一样,这大不一样,通用电气经营的是实体产业,我做的是股权投资,这几十年来我也一直都没有停止过变更投资组合。更何况。伯克希尔哈撒韦现在的市值也只有390多亿美元,对我来说,离‘臃肿’还差的很远呢。” Buffett said that also looks with a smile to Eric, said: „Therefore, I very much envy your this kid actually, the achievement that the short ten years, you make has gone far beyond our these old fogies for a lifetime. Sometimes, I want like you in the Kuwaiti war, the Southeast Asia economic crisis as well as the present new technical tide, pressed the massive gambling stakes to brave one time to be dangerous, what a pity, I am unable to convince itself to take risk like you finally. Right, have you made a lot of money in Southeast Asia in this year?” 巴菲特说完,又笑着看向艾瑞克,道:“所以,我其实还是很嫉妒你这个小家伙的,短短十年时间,你做出的成就就已经远远超过了我们这些老家伙一辈子。有时候,我都想要像你在科威特战争、东南亚经济危机以及现在的新科技浪潮中这样,压上大量赌注冒一次险了,可惜,我最终还是无法说服自己像你这样冒险。对了,你这一年来在东南亚赚了不少钱吧？” „1.1 billion USD,” Eric has not concealed, said: „I have not thought that will have these many.” “11亿美元,”艾瑞克也没有隐瞒,道:“我自己都没有想到会有这么多。” „As far as I know, the two funds in rope Ross hand, this general idea has gained 6 billion USD, his income is 2 billion USD, but, your capital are willing Dingyuan to be lower than the two funds in rope Ross hand.” Buffett was saying, cannot bear swings sigh with emotion begins. “据我所知,索罗斯手中的两只基金,这次大概赚了60亿美元,他本人的收益是20亿美元,不过,你们的本金肯定远低于索罗斯手中的两只基金。”巴菲特说着,又忍不住感慨地摇起头。