IAIH :: Volume #7

#610: The risk is very big

Before 1995, although Microsoft has exposed the overlord stance in the operating system software market, but year turnover actually also be only 20 hundred million USD, main competitor Apple Inc. year turnover also in 1 billion USD above, compared, Microsoft did not hold the overwhelming superiority. Windows 95 more than one year will also distribute, although Microsoft favors to this brand-new operating system, but before selling, in this world perhaps except for Eric, how anybody cannot expect Windows 95 easily accomplished. 1995年之前,微软虽然已经在操作系统软件市场展露出了霸主姿态,但年营业额其实也只有20多亿美元,最主要的竞争对手苹果公司的年营业额也在十亿美元以上,相比起来,微软并不占有绝对优势。windos95还有一年多才会发行,虽然微软内部对这款全新的操作系统非常看好,但在发售之前,这个世界上或许除了艾瑞克,没有任何人能够预料到windos95是如何地摧枯拉朽。 At this time, near the Harvard Business School library in this small dining room, calms down Bill Gates to know, although Yahoo to this time Microsoft, but does not have the yeanlings of many revolt abilities, but this sheep behind is actually standing compared with this time Microsoft also wants fierce ‚giant beast’, Bill Gates hardline attitude originally also quickly restrains, has revealed the business negotiation often some astute looks, said: „Eric, I can consider suggestion of Windows preassemble IE Browser you just said.” 此时,在哈佛商学院图书馆附近这间小餐厅里,冷静下来的比尔.盖茨知道虽然雅虎相对于此时的微软来说,只是一只没有多少反抗能力的小绵羊,但这只绵羊身后却站着一只比此时的微软还要凶猛一些的‘巨兽’,比尔.盖茨原本的强硬姿态也很快收敛起来,露出了商业谈判时常有的精明神色,道:“艾瑞克,我可以考虑你刚刚说的windos预装ie浏览器的建议。” „Immediately was Yahoo Browser, I think that you affirmed know, I just had integrated to three companies.” “马上就是雅虎浏览器了,我想你肯定已经知道,我刚刚对三家公司进行了整合。” Bill Gates is somewhat discontented with the Eric sudden digression, but patiently said: „Good, Yahoo Browser, if Yahoo Browser wants into the Windows preassemble software, must use the Windows permanent monopoly form.” 比尔.盖茨对艾瑞克突然的插话有些不满,但还是耐心道:“好吧,雅虎浏览器,如果雅虎浏览器想要成为windos预装软件的话,必须采用windos永久独占的形式。” Although Eric the development trend in clear next few years operating system market, but at present the market share of Microsoft window also only then 60%, macOS, Linux and Unix primitive DOS as in the massive uses, he naturally is even impossible to show any clue ahead of time, shakes the head saying: „This is impossible, can make in the Windows short-term monopolize the Yahoo Browser most new technology to realize the user conduction current, is the biggest concession that I can make, if according to your suggestion, only if Windows can lord over the operating system market completely, otherwise Yahoo is equal to automatically giving up the present surpassing 40% operation system platforms. This obviously is impossible.” 艾瑞克虽然清楚未来几年操作系统市场的发展趋势,但眼下微软视窗系统的市场占有率也只有60%,maos、linu、uni甚至原始的dos依旧还在大量使用当中,他当然不可能提前就露出任何端倪,摇头道:“这不可能,能够让windos短期内独占雅虎浏览器最新技术实现用户导流,已经是我能够做出的最大让步,如果按照你的建议,除非windos能够完全独霸操作系统市场,否则雅虎等于自动放弃了现在超过40%的操作系统平台。这显然是不可能的。” At this time if completely gives up other platforms, was equal to that bound the Yahoo Browser software completely on Microsoft, if Microsoft got angry suddenly, that Yahoo will be passive. Commercial credit of Microsoft in this aspect may be always poor. 此时如果完全放弃其他平台,就等于将雅虎浏览器软件完全绑定在了微软身上,如果微软突然翻脸,那雅虎将非常被动。微软在这方面的商业信用可从来都不怎么好。 Windows 95 has not distributed. Even if Bill Gates has not lorded over the confidence of operating system market absolutely, although has not complied with the Eric words, has not actually continued to refute, said: „This matter I will consider. However, Microsoft is impossible to make one apply to land the Windows platform with the company that have not related completely. If Yahoo Browser wants into the Windows preassemble software, Microsoft at least needs to attain the Yahoo 40% stocks.” windos95还没有发行。哪怕是比尔.盖茨自己也没有绝对独霸操作系统市场的信心,虽然没有答应艾瑞克的话,却也没有继续反驳,道:“这件事我会考虑的。不过,微软不可能让一家与自己完全没有关系的公司应用登陆windos平台。如果雅虎浏览器想要成为windos的预装软件,微软至少需要拿到雅虎40%的股份。” „Yahoo will choose IPO next year, if sells 40% stocks to give Microsoft, you became the Yahoo first major stockholder, this with sold to Microsoft anything not to distinguish Yahoo. Moreover, Microsoft this time initial price is much lower than me to anticipated.” Eric planned to refuse to sell stock directly, but was saying these, in his mind flashes through a thought suddenly, therefore decides to lose to a Bill Gates good bait: „I most can promise that Microsoft phrases the Yahoo 30% stocks, but is not now. But is five years later 30% buying stockholder's rights. Five years later, Microsoft can act according to Yahoo then market value, adopts the cash, splitoff and other ways, decides whether phrases the Yahoo 30% stocks.” “雅虎明年就会选择ipo,如果出售40%的股份给微软,你们就成为雅虎的第一大股东了,这与将雅虎卖给微软没什么区别。而且,微软此时的开价远远低于我个人对预期。”艾瑞克本来打算直接拒绝出让股份,但说着这些,他脑海中突然闪过一个念头,于是决定丢给比尔.盖茨一个不错的诱饵:“我最多可以许诺微软收购雅虎30%的股份,不过不是现在。而是五年之后30%的购股权。五年之后,微软可以根据雅虎当时的市值,采取现金、换股等任何方式,自行决定是否收购雅虎30%的股份。” In the Bill Gates heart is calculating fast, he holds a favorable view on Yahoo, but does not believe that the Yahoo five years can surmount Microsoft. Microsoft to Yahoo Internet company value estimate in eight arrive at 1 billion USD, even if best estimate, Yahoo market value five years later turns ten times, Microsoft wants to phrase 30% stocks also only to need about 3 billion USD. Every year surpasses 30% market value amplifications by Microsoft at this time, five years later the Microsoft market value may rise to 800 to 100 billion USD. At that time 3 billion USD to Microsoft were not anything, took the Yahoo 30% stockholder's rights, so long as operated in the open market again, Microsoft can become the Yahoo first major stockholder. After that adopts the way of malicious purchase again the entire Yahoo annexation, appears easy. 比尔.盖茨心中快速盘算着,他对雅虎非常看好,但也不相信雅虎五年时间就能够超越微软。微软内部对雅虎网络公司的价值预估在八到十亿美元之间,哪怕最良好的估计,雅虎的市值五年之后翻十倍,微软想要收购30%的股份也只需要30亿美元左右。以微软此时每年超过30%的市值增幅来说,五年之后微软的市值或许会涨到800到1000亿美元。那个时候30亿美元对微软来说并不算什么,拿下雅虎30%的股权,只要再在公开市场上操作一下,微软就能成为雅虎的第一大股东。那之后再采取恶意收购的方式将整个雅虎吞并,就显得轻而易举。 Eric has been paying attention to the expression change of Bill Gates calmly, sees opposite party expression to relax gradually, perhaps even has thought of any good deed, but also shows the self-satisfied smiling face, the just knows front door schoolmate fell in the pit. 艾瑞克一直不动声色地注意着比尔.盖茨的表情变化,见对方神情逐渐放松下来,甚至或许是想到了什么好事,还露出得意的笑容,就知道大门同学已经掉坑里了。 Thought that own calculation does not have what careless mistake. Bill Gates said: „Eric, this point I can consider . Moreover, Yahoo must open some browser software patent authorizations to Microsoft.” 觉得自己的盘算没有什么纰漏。比尔.盖茨就说道:“艾瑞克,这一点我可以考虑,另外,雅虎必须向微软开放一部分浏览器软件专利授权。” „If you insist, naturally does not have the issue,” Eric seems to be good to speak , to continue to ask: „also??” “如果你坚持的话,当然也没有问题,”艾瑞克似乎非常好说话起来,继续问道:“还有吗？” „Temporarily only then these, if thinks of other, formal negotiation time we can supplement again.” “暂时只有这些了,如果想到其他,正式谈判的时候我们可以再进行补充。” „Good,” Eric said: „Since your condition raised, I said my, if can achieve the cooperation, such as monopolized the detail that the authorization spent and so on we no longer to consider, but, Yahoo will guarantee the Yahoo Browser edition in Windows platform to continue to be in the lead in other platforms, but Microsoft must guarantee that within five years can not promote the innate browser software.” “好吧,”艾瑞克道:“既然你的条件提完了,那我说说我的吧,如果能够达成了合作,诸如独占授权费之类的细节我们都可以不再考虑,不过,雅虎保证windos平台上的雅虎浏览器版本将持续领先于其他平台,但微软也必须保证,五年之内不得推出自有的浏览器软件。” Eric planned Yahoo some technological software depend upon the Windows platform to carry on the research and development, therefore makes Windows have Yahoo Browser most new technology, to Yahoo own, even does not need to make any layout adjustment, at this time instead can by this achievement ‚chip’, receive in exchange for some advantage. 艾瑞克本来就打算雅虎的一些技术软件率先依靠windos平台进行研发,所以让windos拥有雅虎浏览器的最新技术,对雅虎自身来说,甚至不需要进行任何布局调整,此时反而能够以此作为‘筹码’,换取一些好处。 Bill Gates suddenly thought that Eric was too tender, so long as Yahoo stepped into the capital market, five years later Yahoo was almost the Microsoft it's in the bag. Moreover, five years, enough Microsoft has a thorough understanding of Yahoo Browser all technical details, and develops the alternative technology, even if when the time comes the matter changes, Microsoft can also expel the Windows platform Yahoo Browser without scruple. 比尔.盖茨突然觉得艾瑞克还是太嫩了一些,只要雅虎踏入资本市场,五年之后雅虎几乎就是微软的囊中之物。而且,五年时间,也足够微软将雅虎浏览器的所有技术细节吃透,并且开发出替代技术,到时候哪怕事情有变,微软也可以毫无顾忌地将雅虎浏览器赶出windos平台。 But as an astute merchant inborn discretion, Bill Gates has not complied as before immediately, although thought at heart anything has not obstructed greatly, but he planned that with studies the advantages to the Microsoft special strategic growth department these provisions. Therefore continues to say ambiguous: „Does not have the issue, I can consider.” 但作为一个精明商人天生的谨慎,比尔.盖茨依旧没有立刻答应,虽然心里觉得没什么大碍,但他还是打算将这些条款拿给微软专门的战略发展部门研究利弊。于是继续模棱两可地说道:“没问题,我可以考虑。” Eric does not have Bill Gates that many planning, did not mind in the Bill Gates spoken language to fill ‚has been able to consider’ and so on word game, both sides understand in any case, before signed the contract finally sureproof, at this time any promise does not have any legal effect. Moreover, Eric is very clear. In the new century, the browser software will take the one dependency service of network giant company, to the 90's, connection function already by big weakening. Let alone. In original space and time, even if the Microsoft earlier period has basically ruled the browser market, and throughout is grabbing the massive market shares, but own network service was hung to hit by Yahoo, Google, Amazon and other companies as before one after another, basically has not produced anything to gain. The most splendid MSN service online also to close to come to an end finally. 艾瑞克并没有比尔.盖茨那么多的算计,也不介意比尔.盖茨言语中充满了‘可以考虑’之类的文字游戏,反正双方都明白,在最终白纸黑字签署合约之前,此时任何许诺都没有任何法律效应。而且,艾瑞克很清楚。进入新世纪,浏览器软件将更多作为网络巨头公司的一种附庸服务,相对于九十年代,接口作用已经被大大的削弱。更何况。原时空中,哪怕微软前期基本上统治了浏览器市场,并且始终占据着大量的市场份额,但自身网络业务依旧被雅虎、谷歌、亚马逊等公司轮番吊打,基本上就没有产生过什么盈利。原本最出色的msn在线服务最终也以关门告终。 Had determined approximate cooperation intention, out of the window weather has all gotten dark, both sides have not continued in the meaning in this small dining room treating. 确定了大致的合作意向,窗外天色已经全黑下来,双方也没有继续在这间小餐厅里待下去的意思。 Saying goodbye time Bill Gates also hopes that visits next year to Yahoo Headquarters, Eric must entertain John Chambers and Steve Case tomorrow, naturally does not hope that the front door schoolmate mixes, found an excuse to shirk at will two days later. 道别的时候比尔.盖茨还希望明年到雅虎总部参观一下,艾瑞克明天要招待约翰.钱伯斯和史蒂夫.凯斯,当然不希望大门同学掺和进来,随意找了个理由推脱到了两天之后。 Gazes after Mr. and Mrs. Gates to take the bold car(riage) to leave, Eric toward the side quiet lawn in several steps, has traced the pocket pulls out one box of cigarette, after the ignition, to sit in the lawn at will, while dark is taking a look at occasionally the pedestrian of process at will. Somewhat is at heart curious, he and Bill Gates have exposed the status, has not actually caused any surrounds, this stems from his expectation actually. 目送盖茨夫妇乘坐豪车离开,艾瑞克朝旁边清静的草坪上走了几步,摸了摸口袋掏出一盒香烟,点燃之后随意在草坪上坐了下来,趁着黑暗随意打量着偶尔经过的行人。心里还有些好奇,他和比尔.盖茨都已经暴露了身份,却没有引起任何围观,这倒是出乎他的预料。 The small tail same did not hate Carolyn that leaves then to sit down by Eric, wanted to remind in the Eric campus do not smoke, but looks that Eric as if carefully is thinking the appearance of matter, has not disturbed. Looks Mars that in the Eric hand sways, Carolyn somewhat worried first Eric will tumble the cigarette butt everywhere, but thought afterward, if he under and others tumbled, oneself helped him pick. Thinks that can help Eric handle some not worthy of mentioning matters. Her mood immediately became happy. 一直小尾巴一样不舍得离开的卡洛琳跟着在艾瑞克旁边坐下,本来想要提醒一下艾瑞克校园里不要抽烟,不过看着艾瑞克似乎在认真想事情的模样,就没有打扰。看着艾瑞克手中晃来晃去的火星,卡洛琳先是有些担忧艾瑞克会将烟头到处乱丢,但随后就觉得如果他等下乱丢的话,自己就帮他捡起来好了。想到可以帮艾瑞克做一些微不足道的事情。她的心情顿时变得开心了许多。 Eric just will recall with the negotiations of Bill Gates, although both sides reached some cooperation intentions initially, but the concrete employment term definitely will adjust in the future negotiation process, in this cooperation biggest risk. Possibly was that 30% buying stockholder's rights provisions, this was also Eric loses to a front door schoolmate biggest bait. Matter that Bill Gates can want to understand, Eric is certainly impossible unable to think. However, ahead of time layout more than two years of time, prophet superiority of owner rebirth, if five years later while the Internet tide east wind. The Yahoo market value cannot achieve to let the situation that Microsoft shrinks back at the sight as before, he also simply sells out Yahoo , to continue Hollywood consider as finished. 艾瑞克将刚刚与比尔.盖茨的谈判回忆了一遍,虽然双方已经初步达成了一些合作意向,但具体的合约条款肯定会在将来谈判过程中进行调整,这份合作中最大的风险。可能就要数那30%的购股权条款了,这也是艾瑞克丢给大门同学最大的一块诱饵。比尔.盖茨能够想明白的事情,艾瑞克当然也不可能想不到。不过,提前布局了两年多的时间,又拥有者重生者的先知优势,如果五年之后趁着互联网浪潮的东风。雅虎的市值依旧不能达到让微软望而却步的地步,那他也就干脆卖掉雅虎,继续回好莱坞算了。 As for other, Eric to has not cared, is the browser software that increases the family fortunes Bill Gates that most cares by the software at this time, the front door schoolmate also looks as before, even if Yahoo Browser is completely free, can play very big promoter action to the promotion of Windows as before, therefore eagerly will want before Windows 95 sells, catches up to take Yahoo personally. But the fact in original space and time had shown that has the hegemonic position of browser software, cannot bring many superiority to the Microsoft Internet service. 至于其他,艾瑞克到没有太在意,靠软件发家的比尔.盖茨此时最在意的依旧是浏览器软件,大门同学也看得出来,哪怕雅虎浏览器完全免费,依旧能够对windos的推广起到非常大的促进作用,因此才会急切地想要在windos95发售之前,亲自赶来想要拿下雅虎。而原时空中的事实已经证明,拥有浏览器软件的霸主地位,并不能给微软的互联网业务带来多少优势。 Said that to choose and Microsoft cooperates, besides wanting to promote Yahoo Browser while next year Windows 95 east wind, Eric mostly was worried that Microsoft will depend upon the window the market superiority to promote the new browser manufacture different technical standards, will hinder the development of Internet industry, in the original space and time Microsoft Internet Explorer and Netscape browser use same Mosaic essence, promoted different peripheral technical standards to cause a series of website incompatible events as before separately. If Microsoft again promotes the new browser now, completely different homepage decoding essence, then this incompatibility will be more serious, Eric does not want to come one to continue many years of technical standard wars with Microsoft, such will be only mutually wounded. 之说以选择与微软合作,除了想要趁着明年windos95东风推广雅虎浏览器外,艾瑞克主要还是担心微软会依靠视窗系统的市场优势推出新的浏览器制造不同的技术标准,阻碍互联网产业的发展,原时空中微软的ie与网景浏览器使用相同的摸sai内核,依旧分别推出了各种不同的周边技术标准造成了一系列网站不兼容事件。如果现在微软再推出新的浏览器,完全不同的网页解码内核,那么这种不兼容性将更加严重,艾瑞克并不想与微软来一场持续多年的技术标准大战,那样只会两败俱伤。 The Carolyn that cigarette of vision in along with the Eric hand shakes shakes, actually sees Eric to turn head suddenly, waved the cigarette that soon burns through, asked: „Do you also want to try?” 卡洛琳的目光随着艾瑞克手中那支烟晃啊晃,却见艾瑞克突然扭过头,挥了挥手中快要燃尽的香烟,问道:“你也想试试？” Carolyn shakes the head hastily: „No, I do not want.” 卡洛琳连忙摇头:“不,我不要。” Eric smiled, sets out to press to extinguish the cigarette butt in hand, throws into the trash can of roadside, then said to Carolyn: „Which dormitory you live , do I deliver you to go back?” 艾瑞克笑了笑,起身将手中的烟头摁灭,丢进路边的垃圾桶里,然后对卡洛琳道:“你住在哪栋宿舍里,我送你回去吧？” The Carolyn vision flies into the trashcan entrance along with that cigarette butt, has gawked, hears the Eric words, transfers the too small face to reply: „I have not stayed the shed, I live in the east apartment.” 卡洛琳的目光随着那只烟头飞入垃圾箱入口,愣了下,听到艾瑞克的话,转过小脸回答道:“我没有住宿舍,我住在东边的公寓里。” Eric following the direction of Carolyn, walks toward the east side, said: „Lives outside, is your girl very unsafe?” 艾瑞克顺着卡洛琳的指引,就朝东边走去,说道:“怎么住外面,你一个女孩子很不安全的？” „No, is not my one, I and schoolmate live together, moreover there leaves the school to be very near.” “不,不是我一个,我和同学一起住,而且那里离学校很近的。” Eric um, again had not said anything. 艾瑞克嗯了一声,就没有再说什么。 They forwarded a section of road, Carolyn had found a topic, said: „Eric, why you must comply with sell to Microsoft the Yahoo 30% stockholder's rights, even if five years later, as if the risk is also very big?” 两人向前走了一段路,卡洛琳才又找到了一个话题,道:“艾瑞克,你干嘛要答应把雅虎30%的股权卖给微软呢,哪怕是五年之后,似乎风险也很大呢？” In the original space and time the Yahoo market value once approached 100 billion USD, Eric believes that after conforming in the memory a series of plans, so long as the Internet tide approaches as scheduled, this space and time Yahoo market value turns several times absolutely not to have the issue, even if be only 200 billion, when the time comes 30% stocks are 60 billion USD, is equal in the original space and time 10% of Microsoft peak market value, Microsoft definitely cannot put out 60 billion USD cashes, Eric remembered in the original space and time in 1999 Microsoft in the turnover of Internet bubble peak also only then 19 billion USD, can Bill Gates when the time comes be willing to trade the Yahoo 30% stocks with 10% stocks, will be one . The matter that difficult to be definite, after all, 10% stocks, regarding gradually became Microsoft of populace holding company, quite in giving Microsoft introduced a major stockholder, this will affect domination of Bill Gates to Microsoft. Moreover, even if trades successfully, Eric does not owe absolutely, Windows will be one soon will realize after all the monopoly the operation system platform, so long as PC were not eliminated, Microsoft can continue to bring the stable huge profit, perhaps will reduce the Microsoft stock along with Bill Gates continually, Eric also fishes the Microsoft first big individual shareholder ding-dong. 原时空中雅虎的市值就一度接近1000亿美元,艾瑞克相信,整合记忆中一系列计划之后,只要互联网浪潮如期来临,这一时空雅虎的市值翻几倍绝对没有问题,哪怕只有2000亿,到时候30%的股份就是600亿美元,相当于原时空中微软最高点市值的10%,微软肯定是拿不出600亿美元现金的,艾瑞克记得原时空中1999年微软在互联网泡沫最高点的营业额也只有190亿美元,比尔.盖茨到时候会不会愿意用10%的股份换去雅虎30%的股份,也将是一件很。难确定的事情,毕竟,10%的股份,对于已经逐渐成为大众持股公司的微软来说,就相当于给微软引进了一个大股东,这将会影响到比尔.盖茨对微软的控制权。而且,即使交易成功,艾瑞克也绝对不亏,windos毕竟是一个即将实现垄断的操作系统平台,只要pc不被淘汰,微软就能够持续带来稳定的巨额利润,随着比尔.盖茨持续减持微软股票,艾瑞克说不定还捞一个微软第一大个人股东当当呢。 Moreover, even if this space and time Microsoft has not met the anti- monopoly investigation, according when the time comes the crazy degree of Internet bubble, that day that the bubble inevitable bitter experience bursts as before. After the Internet bubble bursts, the fund that along with suffering a disastrous decline of Internet company stock price, during Eric can use bubble, leverages in the same old way, completes the second Internet industry layout with ease. 而且,即使这一时空微软没有遇到反垄断调查,按照到时候互联网泡沫的疯狂程度,泡沫依旧不可避免遭遇破裂的那一天。互联网泡沫破裂之后,随着互联网公司股价的一落千丈,艾瑞克照样可以利用泡沫期间套现的资金,轻松完成第二次互联网产业布局。 However, these cannot tell the matter of this girl, Eric very much at will said: „Risk is bigger, the harvest is bigger.” 不过,这些都不是能够告诉身旁这妮子的事情,艾瑞克只是很随意地说道:“风险越大,收获才越大啊。” Carolyn by the information that in the small head accumulates, actually only saw the risk, she did not think that Eric can harvest anything from this transaction. However, imagines a series of miracles that Eric creates in several years, Carolyn does not doubt any viewpoint of Eric, she thought that she cannot think, that definitely was too stupid. 卡洛琳以自己小脑瓜里积累的信息,却只看到了风险,她并不觉得艾瑞克能够从这笔交易里收获什么。不过,想象艾瑞克短短几年里就创造出的一系列奇迹,卡洛琳毫不怀疑艾瑞克的任何观点,她觉得吧,自己想不到,那肯定是太笨了。 Is walking, looks at the soldier factory community more and more near red brick block of flats, Carolyn is at heart getting more and more restless, she knows, if do not hold anything on own initiative, Eric sends back her, definitely once more will live to vanish from oneself, thinks , can only see his form from some publications once more, Carolyn feels somewhat is flustered, walked several steps, the girl has the courage finally, holds on Eric saying: „Eric, you had said in dining room a moment ago, must hire me to be your individual assistant.”( To be continued.) 一路走着,看着士兵厂小区越来越近的红砖公寓楼,卡洛琳心里越来越不安,她知道,如果自己不主动抓住什么,艾瑞克将她送回去,肯定会再次从自己生活中消失掉,想到以后只能再次从一些报刊上看到他的身影,卡洛琳就感觉有些心慌,又走了几步,女孩终于鼓起勇气,拉住艾瑞克说道:“艾瑞克,你刚才在餐厅里说过,要雇佣我做你的个人助理的。”(未完待续。)
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