On December 21 , 1887, British Prime Minister Gladstone, when responded to Congress to interpellate, publicized declares war to Afghanistan, the second UK , Afghanistan war broke out. 1887年12月21日,英国首相格莱斯顿在回应国会质询的时候,公开向阿富汗宣战,第二次英阿战争爆发。 Nowadays Great Britain bullies a small country not to need Congress to be authorized, in fact Huatesi assassination case makes noisily, Afghanistan enjoys the qualifications of declaring war not to have continually. 这年头大英帝国欺负一个小国还不需要国会授权,事实上要不是华特斯遇刺案闹得沸沸扬扬,阿富汗连享受宣战的资格都没有。 Just like this age most indigenous small countries, the European world has not recognized the Afghan government. 和这个年代大多数土著小国一样,欧洲世界根本就不曾承认过阿富汗政府。 In the cognition of most Europeans, the Kingdom of Afghanistan is similar to the indigenous tribe. Even if the British armed forces suffer defeat in the previous War in Afghanistan, still had not changed the cognition. 在大多数欧洲人的认知中,阿富汗王国就和土著部落差不多。即便是英军在上一次阿富汗战争中败北,仍然没有改变外界的认知。 Because Indian colonizing army cannot represent the true battle efficiency of Britain, fights with Afghanistan is also only East India Company, is not the entire Great Britain. 因为印度殖民军不能代表不列颠的真正战斗力,和阿富汗战斗的也只是东印度公司,并非整个大英帝国。 This point from declares war to look to Afghanistan, clear(ly) knows Afghanistan was possibly unjust, the British government declared war, the interlude that even investigates is disinclined. 这一点从对阿富汗宣战就可以看出来,明知道阿富汗可能是被冤枉的,英国政府还是宣战了,连调查的过场都懒得走。 Declares war to start from UK , Afghanistan, Franz retires after meritorious service, when joyful eating melon people. 从英阿宣战开始,弗朗茨就功成身退,当起了快乐的吃瓜群众。 However waits right and left, does not see the good play to perform. The British government slogan shouted earthly-shaking, did not see the practical action. 然而左等右等,就是不见好戏上演。英国政府口号喊得惊天动地,就是不见实际行动。 Reaching an agreement Christmas from now on will dispatch troops, when continuously does not see the war to fire in February, waited again is the next Christmas. 说好的圣诞节过后就出兵,一直等到二月份都不见战争打响,再等下去就是下一个圣诞节了。 At this time, if has not known, the English played to proclaim not to fight again, Franz also did without charge so many year of Emperor. 这个时候,要是还不知道,英国人再玩宣而不战,弗朗茨也就白做这么多年皇帝了。 ...... …… Franz asked: „The Russia person prepares how?” 弗朗茨问道:“俄国人准备的怎么样了？” Foreign minister Wessenberg: „ The Tsar government had built up two infantry division and a cavalry division in Central Asia, as well as a lot of strategic resources. 外交大臣韦森贝格:“沙皇政府已经在中亚地区集结了两个步兵师和一个骑兵师,以及大量的战略物资。 Only waits for the snow and ice to melt, after the domestic path is unimpeded, will launch the attack to Central Asia. ” 只等冰雪融化,国内道路畅通后,就会向中亚地区发起进攻。” The English are motionless, was not equal to that the Russia person is also motionless. Compares the deceitful English, the Russia person is better to trick. 英国人不动,不等于俄国人也不动。相比狡诈的英国人来说,俄国人还是要好忽悠一些。 Perhaps is the relations of gene inheritance, the Russia person to the land all along does not have any resistivity, particularly had also seized Central Asia. 或许是基因传承的关系,俄国人对土地一贯都没有什么抵抗力,尤其是曾经还占领过中亚地区。 The little brother who sees the novice has the danger, in agitation that Austria benefits. After weighing the advantages and disadvantages, has not discovered the danger, the Tsar government decides to do. 见新手的小弟有危险,在奥地利的鼓动下去。权衡利弊后没有发现危险,沙皇政府就决定干了。 Prime Minister Carl: „ The British government proclaimed not to fight to Afghanistan, it seems like they have realized the danger, now looks that they were willing to give up. 卡尔首相:“英国政府对阿富汗宣而不战,看来他们已经意识到了危险,现在就看他们舍不舍得放弃了。 The Russia person just restored several points of vitality, most also eats 1-2 Central Asia Khanate, wanting the one breath to sweep away Central Asia to go south again Indian Ocean, is impossible to achieve. 俄国人刚刚恢复几分元气,最多也就吃掉1-2中亚汗国,想要一口气横扫中亚再南下印度洋,根本就不可能做到。 Now leaves the British government has two roads, either ceases the arms race, focuses on killing Afghanistan, fights a war with the Russia person in Central Asia ; Either rejection less than half Central Asia to the Russia person, conducts the arms race full power. 现在留给英国政府的有两条路,要么停止军备竞赛,集中力量干掉阿富汗,和俄国人在中亚地区打一仗;要么舍弃小半个中亚给俄国人,全力进行军备竞赛。 Regardless of makes anything to choose, the odds of success of English is very big. Naturally, does not remove the London government to be muddleheaded, simultaneously starts the arms race to capture/raid with Central Asia. ” 无论做出什么选择,英国人的胜算都很大。当然,也不排除伦敦政府昏了头,同时开启军备竞赛和中亚攻略。” Stands in angle that in Austria benefits, naturally is hopes that Britain goes to Central Asia and Russia person dies to knock. Whoever wins whom to lose, Austria benefits is a winner. 站在奥地利的角度上,当然是希望英国去中亚和俄国人死磕。无论谁胜谁负,奥地利都是赢家。 Ally is unimportant, if the English can open hangs to kill the Russia person, Franz did not mind that issues 100 tons medal to them, absolutely is the pure gold. 盟友不盟友的一点儿都不重要,要是英国人能够开挂弄死俄国人,弗朗茨不介意给他们颁发一百吨重的勋章,绝对是纯金的。 Vice versa, so long as the Russia person can go south India, Franz did not mind that aids full power. Naturally, lost everything even, the relations have not arrived in that. 反之亦然,只要俄国人能够南下印度,弗朗茨不介意全力援助。当然,砸锅卖铁就算了,关系没到那份儿上。 In comparison, the arms race did not have the worth doing. Puts up the cash to put together the consumption with it with the English, might as well takes away the development home these money. 相比之下,军备竞赛就没搞头了。与其砸钱和英国人拼消耗,还不如把这些钱拿去发展国内。 Foreign minister Wessenberg: „ Simultaneously starts the arms race to capture/raid with Central Asia, the English cannot that the non- wisdom. 外交大臣韦森贝格:“同时开启军备竞赛和中亚攻略,英国人不会那么不智。 The British government should be puzzled now, does not know that which head pays attention to both, after all they are resisting with three great nations. 英国政府现在应该非常纠结,不知道兼顾哪头,毕竟他们在和三个大国对抗。 Perhaps we should help their, the intensity of control armament race, making the English feel relieved that bold going north and Russia person gambles. 或许我们应该帮他们一把,控制军备竞赛的强度,让英国人放心大胆的北上和俄国人博弈。 On this issue, believing the French can have the common language with us. 在这个问题上,相信法国人会和我们有共同语言。 Napoleon IV is busy eradicating the dissident, participates in the arms race also forcing somebody to do something he incapable. If can finish ahead of time, his have no reason to reject. ” 拿破仑四世正忙着铲除异己,参与军备竞赛也是赶鸭子上架。如果可以提前结束的话,他没有理由会拒绝。” Prime Minister Carl asked: „How that side the Russia person to confess? We pledged must divert the English, now gives up, perhaps cannot be justified.” 卡尔首相问道:“俄国人那边怎么交代？我们可是承诺了要牵制英国人的,现在就这么放弃,恐怕说不过去。” suddenly Austria does not have, the matter of violation, the Russia people rarely do arbitrarily, let alone is having self-respect Austria benefits. 俄奥可是没有,擅自违约的事情,就连俄国人都很少干,何况是爱惜羽毛的奥地利。 Austria benefits vertically and horizontally/able to move unhindered European several hundred years, is the diplomacy. Especially after the anti-France war , before the Austria advantage revives, these days, depends entirely on the diplomatic means to keep the great power status. 奥地利纵横欧洲几百年,靠得就是外交。尤其是反法战争之后奥地利复兴之前,这一段时间,全靠外交手段维持大国地位。 Underwent so many years operations, the international reputation of Austria Libyan government is valuable. 经过了这么多年的经营,奥地利政府的国际信誉已经非常值钱了。 Only if determined that can do the dead Russia person, gets rid of the east line to threaten, otherwise the Austria Libyan government will not easily break a contract. 除非确定能够搞死俄国人,摆脱东线威胁,要不然奥地利政府是不会轻易违约的。 First Lord of the Treasury Mark replied: „This issue is easy to do, so long as makes the Russia person know that we lent them the funds of naval construction, was incapable of continue conduct the arms race on the line.” 财政大臣马克回答道:“这个问题好办,只要让俄国人知道我们把造舰的经费借给了他们,无力继续进行军备竞赛就行了。” People at present one bright, although cruel a little, but this truly is a good solution. 众人眼前一亮,虽然阴损了一点儿,但这确实是一个不错的解决办法。 The Tsar government family property is limited, if the Central Asia war fights a battle to force a quick decision ; If the war continues, the Russia person will lend money to the Austria advantage surely. 沙皇政府家底有限,中亚战争要是速战速决,也就罢了;要是战争持续下去,俄国人必定会向奥地利借钱。 When the time comes, Austria benefits the financial circle not to buy the account of Russia person, the Vienna government for the two countries friendship, lends them to go to war the naval construction funds- perfect. 到时候,奥地利金融界不买俄国人的账,维也纳政府为了两国友谊,把造舰经费借给他们打仗-完美。 Saw the people to unify the standpoint, Franz showed a faint smile: „ Then the matter decided that Ministry of Finance is responsible for giving a Russia person confession. 见众人统一了立场,弗朗茨微微一笑:“那么事情就这么定了,财政部负责给俄国人一个交代。 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs secret and French contact, facilitate this Central Asia big tangled warfare, weakening UK and Russia as far as possible. ” 外交部秘密和法国人联络,促成这场中亚大混战,尽可能的削弱英俄两国。” ...... …… Austria benefits is acting, the English has not been idling. Was compelled, simultaneously resists with three great nations, the British government is also presses strength mountain to be big. 奥地利在行动,英国人也没闲着。都是被逼出来的,同时和三个大国对抗,英国政府也是压力山大。 The enemy of enemy is a friend, is not necessarily suitable in the international struggle completely, however in some independent event, can actually collect the effect. 敌人的敌人就是朋友,在国际斗争中未必全部适用,但是在单独的某一事件中,却是可以凑效的。 The sea civilization gave the English the crisis awareness, discovered that simultaneously resists after the Russia , France Austria three countries, the British government starts to seek the solution. 海洋文明赋予了英国人危机意识,发现同时和俄法奥三国对抗后,英国政府就开始寻求解决之道。 suddenly Austria stuck together many years, wanting the support that crosses Austria to benefit is not realistic, the British government will focus in the French. 俄奥抱团了很多年,想要过得奥地利的支持不现实,英国政府将目标放在了法国人身上。 On March 1 , 1888, British Foreign Secretary George visited Paris. The London government has very high expectation, Sir George also openly said that this is the ice-breaking journey of British and French relations. 1888年3月1日,英国外交大臣乔治访问巴黎。伦敦政府抱有非常高的期望,乔治爵士还公开表示这是英法关系的破冰之旅。 To the sudden unexpected visitor, Napoleon IV does not welcome. Reasons for this include, having a look at Palace of Versailles in not far away to know. 对突如其来的不速之客,拿破仑四世本身是不欢迎的。究其原因,看看不远处的凡尔赛宫就知道了。 By the destruction of Paris revolution, Palace of Versailles is also restored 70% until now merely, the remaining places were still in the construction. 受巴黎革命的破坏,时至今日凡尔赛宫也仅仅恢复了百分之七十,剩下的地方仍然处于施工中。 But the chief criminal who the English triggers the Paris revolution exactly, after the revolution was suppressed, many revolutionary party heads are the English delivering. 而英国人恰好就是引发巴黎革命的罪魁祸首,就连革命被镇压后,很多革命党首脑都是英国人给送出去的。 Enemy of the nation hated to collect in one, Napoleon IV nature did not have the favorable impression to the English, exactly said that was does not have the favorable impression to British Austria both evil behind-the-scenes manipulators. 国仇家恨凑在了一起,拿破仑四世自然对英国人没有好感,确切的说是对英奥两个黑手都没好感。 The routine welcoming banquet, Napoleon IV had no absence of reason. This should be since the Napoleon III years, French Emperor does not give the English for the first time face. 例行的欢迎宴会,拿破仑四世都没有任何理由的缺席了。这应该算是自拿破仑三世时代开始,法国皇帝首次这么不给英国人面子。 Besides diplomatic relations deterioration, what are more was relative strength between UK and France changed. 除了外交关系恶化外,更多的还是英法两国之间的实力对比发生了变化。 As the world's first land power and France of the world 's second naval power, is not approving to the hegemonist status of English. 作为世界第一陆军强国、世界第二海军强国的法兰西,对英国人的霸权地位已经不在认可。 Especially the French Younger generation, including Napoleon IV, does not have the sense of awe to the English, some are only being eager to try the hearts of challenge. 尤其是法国年轻一代,包括拿破仑四世本人在内,对英国人都没有敬畏之心,有的只是跃跃欲试的挑战之心。 Happen to verified those words: Who is world hegemon, who has entire world most enemies. 正好印证了那句话:谁是世界霸主,谁就拥有全世界最多的敌人。 ...... …… Palace of Versailles, Napoleon IV is gloomy the face to ask: „English delivered, you thought that what they did want to obtain from here?” 凡尔赛宫,拿破仑四世阴沉着脸问道:“英国人送上门来了,你们觉得他们想要从我们这里得到什么？” Turns over to the English uncomfortable uncomfortable, the diplomatic activities must launch normally. Can discuss the result, in the final analysis must look at the benefit, rather than individual feeling view. 对英国人不爽归不爽,外交活动还是要正常展开的。能不能谈出结果来,归根结底还是要看利益,而不是个人的感观。 Foreign minister Karel Kadlec: „ Your majesty, English this was anxious. 外交大臣卡雷尔・卡德莱茨:“陛下,英国人这是急了。 The Russia person is eager to try in Central Asia, the war is ready to be set off, the back also has the shadow that Austria benefits. 俄国人在中亚地区跃跃欲试,大战一触即发,背后还有奥地利的影子。 If by some chance the situation loses control, likely presents suddenly Austria jointly the aspect to India expanding. 万一局势失控,很可能出现俄奥联手向印度扩张的局面。 If cannot find the person to divert Austria to benefit, the English must alone to the fighting very soon Austria both countries. Even if can win finally, they should still lose seriously, even discards India. ” 如果不能找到人牵制住奥地利,英国人就要独自对抗战俄奥两国。就算最后能赢,他们也会损失惨重,甚至是丢掉印度。” The colony competes, not only looks at the victory and defeat in surface, but must consider the dominant issue of colony. 殖民地争夺不光看表面上的胜负,还要考虑殖民地的统治问题。 Especially Indian this densely populated area, once the nationalism input, government cost will be above the imagination. 尤其是印度这种人口密集区,一旦民族主义思想输入,统治成本会超乎想象。 Big powers gambling may have no moral integrity, the matter of harming others but not benefit oneself, everyone also does frequently. 列强博弈可没有什么节操,损人不利己的事情,大家也是经常干。 Prime minister Terence Bourgin sneers saying: „ That is only English's trouble, suddenly Austria unites even cannot swallow India. 首相特伦斯・布尔金冷笑道:“那只是英国人的麻烦,俄奥就算是联合也吞不下印度。 The English operated so many years in the Indian area, even if could not defend, can still instigate the local independent. 英国人在印度地区经营了这么多年,就算是守不住了,也能够策动当地独立。 Austria should not harbor such fantasy altruistic, but the Russia person said that does not permit, they have the yellow Russian plan. 奥地利人应该不会抱有这样的幻想,不过俄国人就说不准了,他们可是有黄俄罗斯计划的。 India should to be easier than to start the Far East empire, by greedy of Tsar government, so long as there is an opportunity not to give up. 印度应该比远东帝国要容易入手一些,以沙皇政府的贪婪,只要有机会就不会放弃。 Because the relations of suddenly Austria Union, Austria benefits even not on, will not prevent the Russia person to expand to India. 因为俄奥同盟的关系,奥地利就算不自己上,也不会阻止俄国人向印度扩张。 This is also our opportunities, can sit mountain Guanhu to fight, perhaps can also pick to be cheap. 这也是我们的机会,可以坐山观虎斗,没准还能够捡点儿便宜。 Now we need to do, is contrasts all parties' offer, chooses joining of maximum benefit side. ” 现在我们需要做的,就是对比一下各方的报价,选择利益最大化一方的加入。” The opinion of Terence Bourgin, it can be said that represented the mainstream in French government. Everyone is hostile toward the English is not fake, but will unable to pass with the benefit. 特伦斯・布尔金的意见,可以说是代表了法国政府中的主流。大家仇视英国人不假,但也不会和利益过不去。 So long as the English bids enough high, all have the possibility. 只要英国人出价够高,一切皆有可能。 Hesitant after a while, Napoleon IV nods , indicating that approves this viewpoint. 犹豫了一会儿过后,拿破仑四世点了点头,表示认可这种观点。 That worried between foreheads, could see that he is not prefers. Does not have the means that between countries the benefit for first. 眉宇间的那一丝忧愁,还是看得出他并不是那么情愿。没有办法,国与国之间还是利益为先。 ...... ……