1879 came to the entire world, was sinuous one year, regardless of the politics, were economical, came under the Prussia war influence. 1879年对全世界来来说,都是转折性的一年,无论政治、还是经济,都受到了普俄战争影响。 Affected by the European situation intensely, law Austria both countries stubbornly is staring at continental Europe, has not gone out to do the matter again, the English also inserted a foot in South America, the main energy also placed continental Europe. 受欧洲局势紧张影响,法奥两国都死死的盯着欧洲大陆,没有再出去搞事情,英国人也只是在南美插了一脚,主要精力同样放在了欧洲大陆。 Three big hooligans have not done the matter, other country not to mention. 三个大流氓都没有搞事情,别的国家就更不用说了。 Nowadays, the political sensitivity of colonial empire is high, the continental Europe situation intense does not focus on the native place, what to do if the situation does lose control? 这年头,殖民帝国的政治灵敏度都非常高,欧洲大陆局势紧张不集中精力在本土,万一局势失控怎么办？ The colonial empire does not do the matter, to independent nation that these are in a precarious state, without doubt is a good news, finally can on several days of comfortable days. 殖民帝国都不搞事情,对那些朝不保夕的独立国家来说,无疑是一个好消息,终于可以过上几天舒坦日子了。 The Prussia war starts, between the UK , France Austria three countries contradictory was pressed. For the common interest, three big big powers stood in one long time ago. 普俄战争开打,就连英法奥三国之间矛盾都被压了下去。为了共同的利益,三大列强早早就站在了一起。 Naturally, this benefit alliance is unreliable, once the international situation has the great change, or is the three-country strength imbalance, this alliance possibly disintegrates momentarily. 当然,这个利益联盟并不可靠,一旦国际形势发生重大变化,或者是三国实力失衡,这个联盟随时都可能土崩瓦解。 If the effect of Prussia war on the international situation, more lay after the war ; Then the effect on the world economy, got quick results. 如果说普俄战争对国际局势的影响,更多还是在于战后;那么对世界经济的影响,就是立竿见影了。 The affected industry are many, almost affected each domain, the dividend that the agriculture, the manufacturing industry, the financial industry and service industry enjoy is biggest. 受到影响的行业很多,几乎波及了每一个领域,其中农业、制造业、金融业、服务业享受到的红利最大。 The capitalist economy world, the new round prosperity started. Most typical was the agricultural crisis vanished, the manufacturing industry overcapacity did not exist, the prosperous economy promoted the financial industry and service industry the development of directly. 资本主义经济世界,新一轮的繁荣开始了。最典型的就是农业危机消失了,制造业产能过剩不复存在,繁荣的经济直接促进了金融业和服务业的发展。 Although the war just started, the maximum dividend that the war brings, did not have the complete explosion, but the capitalists were full of confidence. 尽管战争才刚刚开始,战争带来的最大红利,还没有完全爆发,但资本家们充满了信心。 A large amount of hot money have flooded into the market, the economic environment all of a sudden was suddenly good. Main street and small alley can see the recruiting advertisement, with the war related domain, the worker wages presented the small dramatic increase. 大量的热钱已经涌入市场,经济环境突然一下子好了。大街小巷都可以看到招工广告,和战争相关的领域,工人工资都出现了小幅度上涨。 According to the data of statistics showed, only Austria benefits the new investment cost to reach as high as 160 million aegises in November, compared with the same period last year grew 76.4%. 根据统计的数据显示,仅十一月份奥地利新增投资额就高达1.6亿神盾,较去年同期增长了百分之七十六点四。 This some funds, flowed in the manufacturing industry mostly, factories rise straight from the ground, obviously the investors favor this opportunity. 这部分资金,大部分流入了制造业,一座座工厂拔地而起,显然投资者们是非常看好这次机遇的。 Not is only Austria benefits, the entire continental Europe is so. The capital looked like insane was the same, the unceasing flooding into various trades and occupations, wanted to slice in the Prussia war. 不光是奥地利,整个欧洲大陆都是如此。资本就像是疯了一样,不断的涌入各行各业,想要在普俄战争中分一杯羹。 Looks at the data of statistics, Franz deeply frowned: „ Now the market is extremely fiery, although the consumption of war is big, but wallet actually some of Prussia two countries. 看着统计的数据,弗朗茨眉头紧锁:“现在市场太过火热了,战争的消耗虽大,但普俄两国的钱包却有些。 Regardless of UK , France, we, will not provide the fund to them unlimitedly. How long could not want, the new round overcapacity will erupt, after the war the European economy perhaps will whin a piece. ” 无论英法、还是我们,都不会无限制给他们提供资金。要不了多久,新一轮的产能过剩就会爆发,战后欧洲经济恐怕会哀嚎一片。” The economy minister Rinehart Hall Degen explained: „ Your majesty, this is the inexorable law of economic development. In the front several wars, many people get rich by foul means that they had been hoodwinked the eyes by the benefit, neglected existence of risk. 经济大臣莱因哈特・哈尔德根解释道:“陛下,这是经济发展的必然规律。在前面的几次战争中,很多人都大发横财,他们已经被利益蒙蔽了双眼,忽视了风险的存在。 Not is only the domestic, entire European world is so. According to economic experts' estimate, in the recent two months, the European new investment cost compared with the same period last year, grew at least 50%. 不光是国内,整个欧洲世界都是如此。根据经济专家们的估计,在最近两个月内,欧洲新增投资额较去年同期,增长了至少百分之五十。 The post-war overcapacity, will become various European countries common difficult problem. This is a huge trouble, similarly is also the huge opportunity. 战后产能过剩,将成为欧洲各国共同的难题。这是一个巨大的麻烦,同样也是天大的机遇。 So long as seized this opportunity, we can seize the chance to beat the manufacturing industry of French, weakened this biggest competitor. ” 只要把握住了这个机遇,我们就可以趁机击垮法国人的制造业,削弱这个最大的竞争对手。” The view of this year anti-dumping, the free trade has not been the mainstream of time. The French have not withstood the pressure, six months ago joined the free trade system. 这年头没有反倾销的说法,自由贸易才是时代的主流。法国人还是没有顶住压力,在半年前加入了自由贸易体系。 „Free trade” the core is: The government cancels the limit and hindrance to the import-export trade, cancels to various privileges and preferential benefits of its import-export goods, causes the commodity freely import and export, free competition in domestic and foreign markets. “自由贸易”的核心就是:政府取消对进出口贸易的限制和阻碍,取消对本国进出口商品的各种特权和优惠,使商品自由地进出口,在国内外市场上自由竞争。 Superficially, is good to everyone, can simultaneously have the global market, cleared away the barrier of circulation of commodities. 表面上来看,对大家都有好处,可以同时拥有全球市场,扫清了商品流通的障碍。 In fact, between the enterprise and enterprise, country and country have the disparity, this disparity direct response in market competitiveness. 实际上,企业和企业、国家和国家之间也是有差距的,这个差距直接反应到了市场竞争力上。 Without a doubt, resource-poor France, was in the inferior position in this round of competition. Imports the raw material the reason, raised the production cost directly. 毫无疑问,资源匮乏的法兰西,在这一轮竞争中处于了不利地位。进口原材料的缘故,直接抬高了生产成本。 In order to cut cost, the capitalists naturally must reduce the worker wages, but flooding into of Italian inexpensive labor, to pull down wages this created the favorable conditions. 为了削减成本,资本家们自然要压低工人工资,而意大利廉价劳工的涌入,又为压低工资这创造了有利条件。 Recently ten years, the European per-capita wage grew 23.8%, but the per-capita wage of France grew 5.4% merely. 最近十年时间,欧洲人均工资增长了百分之二十三点八,而大法兰西的人均工资仅仅只是增长了百分之五点四。 Under this background, the conflict between France , Italy people naturally emerges one after another incessantly, even the Paris government suppresses vigorously, still had little effect. 这一背景下,法意民众之间的冲突自然是层出不穷,即便是巴黎政府极力压制,仍然收效甚微。 Regrettably, even pulled down the artificial wage, the international competitiveness of most French industry and commerce products were still not high. 令人遗憾的是,即便压低了人工薪水,大部分法国工商业制品的国际竞争力仍然不高。 Without the means that who makes this year the headman labor cost cheap? Except for the labor force intensive industry, 1/5 of overwhelming majority industry and commerce product labor cost insufficient total costs, even is less. 没办法,谁让这年头人工成本便宜呢？除了劳动力密集型产业,绝大部分工商业制品人工成本不足总成本的五分之一,甚至是更少。 Those who occupy the production cost big end is the industrial industrial material, does not solve the problem in source, how to enhance the market competitiveness? 占据生产成本大头的是工业工业原材料,不解决源头上的问题,如何提高市场竞争力呢？ The market is a whole, while reducing labor cost, weakened the market purchasing power. 市场是一个整体,在压低人工成本的同时,也削弱了市场购买力。 Although the French 60 million population, the market consumer buying power actually cannot catch up is only 30 million people of John Bull. 尽管大法兰西有六千万人口,市场消费力却赶不上只有三千万人的约翰牛。 The market consumer buying power is not good, fed back in the industrial production, forced an enterprise production more inexpensive commodity, this was a vicious economic cycle. 市场消费力不行,又反馈回了工业生产中,逼迫企业生产更廉价的商品,这是一个恶性经济循环。 Taking coal for instance, the French industrial coal cost is 1.3 times that Austria benefits, certain inland areas even were also over 2 times. 以煤炭为例,法国人工业用煤成本是奥地利的1.3倍,某些内陆地区甚至还超过了二倍。 This is only a start, the coal price causes the generating cost to rise high, in turn causes the electrical bill to rise, the high electricity price is to hinder the biggest barrier of electric power promotion without doubt. 这只是一个开始,煤价格高导致发电成本上升,进而导致电费上涨,高昂的电价无疑是阻碍电力推广的最大障碍。 Slow step by step slow, the electric power has not promoted, uses the electricity also to be naturally out of the question as the power generator equipment. 一步慢步步慢,电力没有推广,以电为动力机械设备自然也无从谈起。 Affected by this, upstream's electromechanical equipment producer, the development was limited, is incapable of investing to research and develop a more advanced equipment, gradually falls behind in the international competition. 受此影响,上游的电力机械设备生产商,发展受到限制,无力投资研发更先进的设备,在国际竞争中逐渐落后。 Equipment application business of downstream, because has not used the most advanced productive forces promptly, was exceeded by the opponent in the market competition, and even eliminates. 下游的设备使用商,因为没有及时采用最先进的生产力,在市场竞争中被对手超越、乃至淘汰。 In the age of this law of the jungle, the backwardness must come under attack. The French military power is powerful enough, no one hits them with no reason at all, was economically was different, everyone was the competitor, getting down the evil behind-the-scenes manipulator was inevitable. 在这个弱肉强食的年代,落后就要挨打。法国人军事实力够强大,无缘无故没人去打他们,可是经济上就不一样了,大家是竞争对手,下黑手是必然的。 So long as can beat the competitor, pays some prices to be naturally worth. Under the free trade system, the large-scale overcapacity appears, various countries must put together the industrial strength. 只要能够击垮竞争对手,付出一些代价自然是值得的。在自由贸易体系下,大规模的产能过剩出现,各国就要拼工业实力了。 This aspect Vienna government is confident, Franz is also confident. Infrastructure construction that because Austria benefits, is the same time complete King. 这方面维也纳政府有信心,弗朗茨也有信心。因为奥地利的基础设施建设,是同时代完全的王者。 Not only the transportation is developed, is European earliest popular electric power country, is the second Industrial Revolution place of origin, the emergent industry domain walked in the most front row of the world. 不光交通发达,还是欧洲最早普及电力国家,又是第二次工业革命的发源地,新兴产业领域走在了世界的最前列。 This aspect brave Austria is two extremes, concentrates on the emerging domain, focuses on the traditional business, became industry hegemon. This for the cooperation between two countries, created the favorable conditions. 这方面英奥是两个极端,一家专注于新兴领域,一家着重于传统行业,都成了行业霸主。这就为两国之间的合作,创造了有利条件。 Franz: „ Such being the case, that makes the crisis come is more violent! Should better destroy together with the manufacturing industry of Europe and US, before considering the act drop pulls open clearout. 弗朗茨:“既然如此,那就让危机来的更猛烈一些！最好连同欧美各国的制造业一起摧毁掉,就当是大幕拉开前的清场。 This time can cooperate with the British capitalists, making the non-government enterprise coordinate, do not pull directly the government. As soon as the Prussia war ended, starts together, starts this capital war. ” 这一次可以和英国资本家们合作,让民间企业牵头,不要直接把政府扯进去。普俄战争一结束,就一起发动,掀起这场资本大战。” Without the gunsmoke war, will be sometimes more brutal. The brought destruction, does not compare a war to be weak. 没有硝烟的战争,有时候还会更加残酷。带来的破坏,丝毫不比一场战争弱。 Conceivable, how long could not want to be unemployed and go bankrupt, will become the hot topic of whole society once again. 可以想象,要不了多久失业、破产,就会再一次成为全社会的热门话题。 After pondering the moment, economy minister Rinehart Hall Degen: „ So long as joined the country of free trade system, is very easy to do. 沉思了片刻后,经济大臣莱因哈特・哈尔德根:“只要是加入了自由贸易体系的国家,都很好办。 The United States of America is somewhat difficult, they implement the trade protectionism policy as before stubbornly, wants to pry open their front doors to be difficult. ” 美利坚合众国有些困难,他们依旧顽固的实施贸易保护政策,想要撬开他们的大门非常困难。” Experience teaching. The American capitalists were damaged several times by the British capital, now has been scared, closes oneself to play simply. 吃一堑,长一智。美国资本家们就是被英国资本祸害了几次,现在已经吓着了,干脆关起门来自己玩儿。 In any case oneself rich resources, the technology of direct knockoff various European countries, besides own market small, the easy life has also well. 反正自身资源丰富,直接山寨欧洲各国的技术,除了自身市场小了点儿外,小日子过得还不错。 Franz: „ This issue gives Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In promoted free trade issue, English, but vanguard. 弗朗茨:“这个问题交给外交部。在推广自由贸易的问题上,英国人可是急先锋。 Everyone can join up to put pressure on Republic, joining is half person on one's own side, if their stupid not peaceful, that were polite. 大家可以联合起来向合众国施压,加入进来就是半个自己人,如果他们冥顽不宁,那就没必要客气了。 Since they want to play the trade protectionism, makes them play simply enough, the international embargo is a good choice. ” 既然他们想要玩贸易保护,索性就让他们玩儿够,国际禁运就是一个不错的选择。” To be honest, nowadays the industry and commerce product of Republic, really without many competitiveness, many products cannot compare the Russia people. 说实话,这年头合众国的工商业制品,真没有多少竞争力,很多产品连俄国人都比不上。 If not conduct the trade protectionism, opens the gateway to compete, they will die a tragic death absolutely. 如果不进行贸易保护,敞开门户进行竞争,他们绝对会死得很惨。 Franz non- extravagant demands Republic can completely open the market, so long as opened together the crack in a door enough, was really not the good smuggling can also accept. 弗朗茨不奢求合众国能够完全开放市场,只要打开一道门缝就够了,实在是不行走私也可以接受。 In the issue of attack competitor, Franz always does not let go any opportunity. 在打击竞争对手的问题上,弗朗茨从来都不放弃任何一个机会。 Prime Minister Felix: „ Your majesty, if we push one again, the post-war economic crisis will be perhaps frigid. 费利克斯首相:“陛下,如果我们再推一把的话,战后的经济危机恐怕会非常惨烈。 If the crisis duration is too long, will unable to do well the situation in continental Europe also to be broken again, we have not been ready. ” 要是危机持续时间太长,搞不好欧洲大陆的局势还会再次被打破,我们还没有做好准备。” The man-made disaster is most fearful, particularly this type can only operate to begin, is unable to control the man-made disaster of result, the destructive power even better. 人祸是最可怕的,尤其是这种只能操纵开头,无法控制结局的人祸,破坏力更胜一筹。 With arrival of industrial age, the effect of economical on the political situation is getting bigger and bigger. Because the economy deteriorates, causes innumerability of turbulent situation, causing the war to erupt is not infrequent. 随着工业时代的降临,经济对政治局势的影响越来越大。因为经济恶化,导致局势动荡的多不胜数,导致战争爆发的都不在少数。 Franz shakes the head: „ Without so many time preparations, we never may prepare fully, when we prepared, the opportunity also missed. 弗朗茨摇了摇头:“没有那么多时间准备,我们永远都不可能准备充分的,等我们准备好了,机会也错过了。 We do not take action, was not equal to that the English will not act, accepts a challenge with it passively, might as well initiate an attack. ” 况且,我们不采取行动,不等于英国人也不会行动,与其被动应战,不如主动出击。” Old tended to be conservative, said actually not conservative is not good, in fact to a great nation, conservative often also means the national destiny to be long-time, radical is a disaster of country. 年龄大了就趋于保守,倒不是说保守不好,事实上对一个大国来说,保守往往也意味着国运长久,激进才是一个国家的灾难。 The opportunity was too rare, once missed this opportunity, wants to take action again, the price that needs to pay was not tiny bit. 只是机会太难得了,一旦错过了这次机遇,再想要采取行动,需要付出的代价就不是一星半点儿了。 To put it bluntly, Franz not law-abiding living. Besides does not dare adventure militarily, in the economic domain, he did not mind attempts. 说白了,弗朗茨也不是安分的住。除了在军事上不敢冒险外,在经济领域,他还是不介意尝试一下。 Succeeded, no doubt is best ; Was defeated, unlucky is also a speculator. The Vienna government dealt with the experience of economic crisis to be very rich, could not injure the basis of country. 成功了,固然是最好;失败了,倒霉的也是投机者。维也纳政府应对经济危机的经验已经很丰富了,伤不到国家的根本。