Years in a hurry, in an instant beginning of winter. 岁月匆匆,转眼又入冬。 By a Franz many years of experience can judge that this is a mild winter, in the past this season Glockner mountain had snowed, this year do not say the snow, the rain is few. 凭借弗朗茨多年的经验可以判断这是一个暖冬,往常这个时节格洛克纳山已经下雪,今年不要说雪了,就连雨都很少。 The mild winter drought, had almost announced that next year agriculture must reduce production. A Austria money pouch industrialized nation, was a large agricultural nation, the agriculture was in the important position in the national economy. 暖冬干旱,几乎已经宣布来年的农业要减产。奥地利是一个工业大国,同时也是一个农业大国,农业在国民经济中占据了重要地位。 The Vienna government has attached great importance to the agricultural production very much, after many years of effort, the domestic agricultural infrastructure facility had tended to the improvement, had one set of perfect disaster to deal with the system. 维也纳政府一直都很重视农业生产,经过了多年的努力,国内的农业基础设施已经趋于完善,有了一套完善的灾害应对体系。 Usually so long as does not affect the wide scope disaster of nation, Franz will not inquire. Now brought to his attention, mainly happened in Vienna. 通常只要不是波及全国的大范围灾害,弗朗茨是不会过问的。现在引起了他的注意,主要是发生在了维也纳。 Agriculture minister Horss: „ Your majesty, the current situation is not too bad, according to regional the data of monitoring, the range that the disaster situation affects is not very big. 农业大臣霍尔斯:“陛下,目前的情况还不算太糟糕,根据各地监控的数据来看,灾情波及到的范围并不是很大。 Main strongly in Vienna peripheral, Bohemia area, these local industries and commerces are relatively developed, the risk tolerance of people are strong, the winter wheat production cut does not cause serious adverse effects. ” 主要集中在维也纳周边、波西米亚地区,这些地区工商业相对发达,民众的抗风险能力较强,冬麦减产不会造成太大影响。” This is the benefit that the industrial age provides, the economically developed area, the farmer enters the city to work in the slack farming season period, has become a social common phenomenon. 这是工业时代带来的好处,经济发达地区,农民在农闲时期入城务工,已经成为了一种社会普遍现象。 Increased the source of income, naturally also increased the risk tolerance. If is also in the peasant society, the government must enhance vigilance. 增加了收入来源,自然也增加了抗风险能力。要是还处于农业社会,政府就要提高警惕了。 Franz spoke thoughtlessly asked that grain production cut within certain range, in tolerance range that in Austria benefitted, „disaster relief” did not need. 弗朗茨只是随口一问,一定范围内的粮食减产,在奥地利的承受范围之内,“赈灾”都不需要。 The production cut does not get no crop, each mu place little receives 180 jin (0.5 kg), but also is not enough to make the farmer go bankrupt. Only if the disaster situation is long-enduring, needs the government relief, must otherwise, people be able to pass the disaster situation. 减产又不是绝收,每亩地少收百八十斤,还不足以令农民破产。除非灾情是持续性的,才需要政府救济,要不然的话,民众自己就可以度过灾情。 ...... …… Foreign minister Wessenberg: „ Your majesty, just spread the news from Paris, the French prepares to dispatch troops to escort Isabella II's son to return to homeland, the struggle of Spanish throne must end. 外交大臣韦森贝格:“陛下,刚刚从巴黎传来消息,法国人准备出兵护送伊莎贝拉二世之子回国,西班牙王位之争要落幕了。 According to the acquired material judged, UK , France should reach the agreement. Ministry of Foreign Affairs thinks that possibly is related with the Near East war, the London government yields in the issue of struggle of Spanish throne, received exchange for the French in the near eastern question to their support. ” 根据收集到的资料判断,英法应该达成了协议。外交部认为可能和近东战争有关,伦敦政府在西班牙王位之争的问题上让步,换取法国人在近东问题上对他们的支持。” Without coming as a surprise to Franz, the English wants to defend the Ottoman empire, must draw in the French. 没有出乎弗朗茨的意料,英国人想要保住奥斯曼帝国,就必须要拉上法国人。 Although the Paris government internal fight is unceasing, but they do not want to notice that similarly the Austria advantage captures the back nail. The English yield in the Spanish throne issue, the French chooses to support them is not strange. 巴黎政府虽然内斗不断,可是他们同样不想看到奥地利拔掉背后的钉子。英国人在西班牙王位问题上让步,法国人选择支持他们并不奇怪。 The Austria advantage wants a stable rear area, is the French so? Spain is different from the Ottoman empire, the French, even to draw out this nail unable to achieve. 奥地利想要一个稳定的后方,法国人何尝不是如此呢？西班牙不同于奥斯曼帝国,法国人就算是想要拔出这颗钉子也做不到。 Winning that doesn't hit, the key does not have the means to use force. The European countries may be able to accept the Ottoman empire to be finished, ignores Spain will not actually be annexed absolutely. 不是打不打的赢,关键是是没有办法采取武力。欧洲各国或许会可以接受奥斯曼帝国完蛋,却绝对不会放任西班牙被吞并。 Since cannot kill, then won over. The present Spain is also a mess, an internal problem big pile, supports an own law, and weak government, fully serves the French interests. 既然打不死,那么就拉拢好了。现在的西班牙也是一个烂摊子,内部问题一大堆,扶持一个亲法、且弱势的政府,完全是符合法兰西利益的。 Spanish Queen Isabella II reputation is notorious, the son Alfonso XII following prestige is also damaged, wants to hold on to the throne unable to leave the support of French. 西班牙女王伊莎贝拉二世名声早就臭了,连带着儿子阿方索十二世也跟着声誉受损,想要坐稳王位就离不开法国人的支持。 A government of weak own law, in long time, the French will not need to be worried to threaten in the future from Spain. 一个弱势亲法的政府,未来很长时间内,法国人都不用担心来自西班牙的威胁。 Franz: „ Such being the case, then we prepared to end. Generates electricity to Hummel, once UK , France involve comprehensively, negotiated with the Ottoman empire, the bottom line takes our actual control areas, in addition Jerusalem. 弗朗茨:“既然如此,那么我们就准备收场了。发电给胡梅尔,英法一旦全面介入,就和奥斯曼帝国谈判,底线是拿下我们的实际控制区,外加耶路撒冷。 That side the Russia person, Ministry of Foreign Affairs also comforts. They can yield many incomes, looked at Tsar government's own foreign diplomatic capability. ” 俄国人那边,外交部也安抚一下。他们能够获得多少收益,就看沙皇政府自己的外交能力了。” In Franz heart clear, this possibly is the last time joint military operations of suddenly Austria Union. According to the current international situation, Austria benefits and Russia person forms an alliance is the shortcoming outweighs the advantage. 弗朗茨心中清楚,这可能是俄奥同盟的最后一次联合军事行动。按照目前的国际局势,奥地利和俄国人结盟已经是弊大于利。 Alexander II no doubt is outstanding ability and grand vision, suppresses stubbornly the domestic all influence, completed the preliminary social reform, but the performance on diplomacy is really makes one would not venture to give positive comments on. 亚历山大二世固然是雄才大略,把国内各方势力压制得死死的,完成了初步社会改革,但外交上的表现实在是令人不敢恭维。 On the one hand is the historical burden of Russian Empire is too heavy, is carrying the European hegemon rack, does not have the prompt adjustment mentality ; On the other hand extremely regards as important the territory, is not good with all neighborships. 一方面是俄罗斯帝国的历史包袱太重,端着欧陆霸主的架子,没有及时调整心态;另一方面就是太过看重领土,和所有邻居关系都不好。 Did not mean that takes seriously the territory is not right, the issue is many territories of Russian Empire is snatches, is similar to the colony. 并不是说重视领土不对,问题是俄罗斯帝国的很多领土都是抢来的,就和殖民地差不多。 Powerful time, how regardless to attach great importance. Decline time, this/should attention ways and means that this/should concessions must yield. 强大的时候,无论怎么重视都可以。衰落的时候,就该注意方式方法了,该让步就必须要让步。 It is a pity that the Tsar government has not done, the previous Prussia war Russia person defeats, in fact defeated in the diplomacy. 遗憾的是沙皇政府没有那么做,上一次普俄战争俄国人战败,实际上就是败在了外交上。 If the Tsar government draws in the ambition, other did not say that at least Central Asia and Far East will not have problems. The expansion of pre-war Tsar government, aggravated others, Prussia cannot draw the ally. 如果沙皇政府收拢一下野心,别的不说至少中亚和远东不会出问题。要不是战前沙皇政府的扩张,把人家惹火了,普鲁士也拉不到盟友。 Properly speaking, received a society to beat mercilessly, the Tsar government should awaken, fixed the neighboring country relations on own initiative. Has what issue, after defeating Prussia, processes slowly. 按理来说,受到了一次社会毒打,沙皇政府应该醒悟过来,主动修好邻国关系。有什么问题,等打垮了普鲁士后再慢慢处理。 It is a pity that the Tsar government has not changed the mentality, takes back the native land to regard the neighboring country is the enemy invades, thinks one is a victim. 遗憾的是沙皇政府并没有转变过来思路,把邻国收回故土当成是敌人入侵,认为自家才是受害者。 Great, plays will definitely not have the friend. Franz very suspicion next Prussia war, Russia person also besieged life. 没得说,这么玩儿肯定不会有朋友。弗朗茨非常怀疑下一次普俄战争,俄国人也是被人围攻的命。 Because the relations of suddenly Austria Union, doing Austria benefit and these state relations are not good. Naturally, Austria benefits the strength to be powerful enough, even the relations are not good, the big powers treatment has, without the trade of influences and various countries. 因为俄奥同盟的关系,搞得奥地利和这些国家关系也不好。当然,奥地利实力足够强大,即便是关系不好,列强待遇还是有的,没有影响和各国的贸易往来。 Prime Minister Felix reminded: „Your majesty, might as well first inform the Tsar government, leaves behind the cushion time to them.” 费利克斯首相提醒道:“陛下,不如先通知沙皇政府,给他们留下缓冲时间。” suddenly Austria Union had not finished, the pig teammate matter could not be done too obviously. The Near East war can have the current aspect, is mainly Austria benefits is providing the strategic resources. 俄奥同盟还没结束,坑队友的事情还不能做得太明显。近东战争能够打出目前的局面,主要是奥地利在提供战略物资。 If the Austria advantage withdrew from the war, the Tsar government may be unable to bear this expenses. The same strategic resources, the cost to the different countries are also different. 要是奥地利退出了战争,沙皇政府可负担不起这笔开销。同样的战略物资,对不同国家来说成本也不一样。 Relatively speaking, oneself have the industrial power of productivity, the cost of strategic resources wants to be lower, but the expense that the agricultural country that needs to import bears is much higher. 相对而言,自身具备生产能力的工业强国,战略物资的成本要低一些,而需要进口的农业国承担的费用则高得多。 The cost that taking arms and ammunition for instance, the Russia person needs to pay benefit the high three points compared with Austria one, this is the cost of ordinary period, if to time of war even if higher than half to have the possibility. 以武器弹药为例,俄国人需要付出的成本要比奥地利高三分一,这还是平常时期的成本,要是到了战争时期就算是高出一半都有可能。 The factor that this inside involves are many, for example: Production cost, transportation cost and procurement cost, as well as honest of service department. 这里面涉及到的因素很多,比如说:生产成本、运输成本、采购成本,以及官僚系统的廉洁性。 If the Vienna government suspends the Russia person now together, perhaps Ottoman empire anything does not need to pay, the Tsar government also can only withdraw troops. 要是现在维也纳政府摆俄国人一道,或许奥斯曼帝国什么都不需要付出,沙皇政府也只能撤军。 The chief enemy of Russia person is the Prussia kingdom, the Tsar government is impossible to cause the downfall of the nation the strength and Ottoman empire hits. 俄国人的主要敌人是普鲁士王国,沙皇政府不可能倾国之力和奥斯曼帝国打下去。 The war conducts now, the Tsar government weakens the strategic target of Ottoman empire to complete. Even the Ottoman empire bath hot rebirth, in 20 years is unable to threaten Russian Empire. 战争进行到现在,沙皇政府削弱奥斯曼帝国的战略目标已经完成。就算是奥斯曼帝国浴火重生,二十年内也无法威胁到俄罗斯帝国。 Reminded the Russia person, does not need to pay the price, Franz naturally accepted good advice readily. 提醒一下俄国人,又不需要付出代价,弗朗茨自然是从善如流。 „Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially informed Russia person one, drew close to the information transmit that UK , France to them, the Tsar government will understand.” “外交部知会俄国人一声,把英法靠拢的消息传递给他们,想必沙皇政府会理解的。” Did not understand that is not good, without the Austria advantage disburses money the commodity, the Tsar government absolutely would have no financial resource of Continuation War. 不理解也不行,没有奥地利出钱出物资,沙皇政府根本就没有继续战争的财力。 ...... …… Downing Street Prime minister Office, Prime Minister Ghale Milestone the present mood is uncomfortable, the tone ice-cold said: „Lowell, calls the cabinet members to meet”. 唐宁街首相办公室,格尔斯顿首相现在的心情非常不爽,语气冰冷的说:“劳尔,召集内阁成员过来开会”。 Franz thinks the English to defend the Ottoman empire, made the concession in the Spanish throne issue, in fact stands in the London government has not made the decision quickly. 弗朗茨认为英国人为了保住奥斯曼帝国,在西班牙王位问题上做出了让步,实际上站在伦敦政府并没有这么快做出决定。 The Austria money pouch threat, France will also threaten, regardless of ignores which does in a big way, will pose a threat to the interests of Britain. 奥地利是威胁,法兰西同样也会威胁,无论放任哪一家做大,都会威胁不列颠的利益。 Only if no means that must the London government not compromise to the French otherwise. 除非是没有办法,要不然的话伦敦政府是不会向法国人妥协的。 The original space and time English reverses to the allies, is the Second German Empire expansion navy, after letting they feel the threat, before then they have been swinging. 原时空英国人倒向协约国,还是德二帝国扩张海军,让他们感受到威胁之后,在此之前他们一直都在摇摆。 Now the Austria advantage may not have the expansion navy wantonly, the navy scale has been under the French, gross tons ranking world third. 现在奥地利可没有大肆扩张海军,海军规模一直处于法国人之下,总吨位排名世界第三。 Stands in the standpoint of English, law Austria both countries are the huge threats. These two threats have the common weakness, must develop land authority simultaneously, both countries in continental Europe diverts mutually, the pressure of London government is not big. 站在英国人的立场,法奥两国都是巨大的威胁。偏偏这两个威胁都有共同的弱点,必须要同时发展陆权,在欧洲大陆上两国又互相牵制,伦敦政府的压力并不大。 ...... …… Prime Minister Ghale Milestone interrogated: „ Marquis, you did not tell my French to be busy internal fight, had no interest in participate in the international affairs? 格尔斯顿首相质问道:“侯爵阁下,你不是告诉我法国人正忙着内斗,无心参与国际事务么？ Now, we diverted Austria to benefit for them, the French dispatched troops to interfere with the struggle of Spanish throne directly. 现在这是怎么回事,我们替他们牵制住了奥地利,法国人直接出兵干涉西班牙王位之争。 I really do not dare to imagine, if this news passed on, will cause the big stir. ” 我实在不敢想象,这个消息要是传了出去,会造成多大的轰动。” Marquis MacClean also wants to cry but have no tears, he has not really thought of French in the internal fight to come this move suddenly. 麦克林侯爵也是欲哭无泪,他实在是没有想到内斗中的法国人会突然来这一招。 Has saying that the time of French candidate is good. Because British Austria both countries the Ottoman issue have the contradiction, both countries divert mutually do not have the time to meddle the struggle of Spanish throne. 不得不说,法国人选的时间好。英奥两国因为奥斯曼问题发生矛盾,两国互相牵制没有功夫插手西班牙王位之争。 „ Prime minister, this is our miscalculation, underestimated the ambition of French. Things have gotten to this point, now we must find the way to settle, otherwise we created this century biggest joke. “首相阁下,这是我们判断失误,低估了法国人的野心。事已至此,现在我们必须要想办法善后,要不然我们就创造了本世纪最大的笑话。 By the current situation, we can only two choose one. Either collaborates with the French, defends the Ottoman empire ; Either collaborates with the Austria advantage, forcing the French to give up interfering with the Spanish throne to inherit. 以目前的情况,我们只能二选一。要么和法国人联手,保住奥斯曼帝国;要么和奥地利联手,逼迫法国人放弃干涉西班牙王位继承。 I suggested first to defend the Ottoman empire, the issue of Spain have a lot of time for that. Politically forever ally, the Spanish government cannot own law, they also be able today tomorrow pro- brave. 我个人建议还是先保住奥斯曼帝国,西班牙的问题来日方长。政治上没有永远的盟友,今天西班牙政府能够亲法,明天他们也可以亲英。 If the Ottoman empire perished, wanted to resurrect again is difficult. Without the diversion of Ottoman empire, Austria benefitted when the time comes can expand to Central Europe full power, Europe balances may be very broken. ” 奥斯曼帝国要是灭亡了,想要再复活就难了。没有了奥斯曼帝国的牵制,到时候奥地利就可以全力向中欧地区扩张,欧洲平衡很可能被打破。” A reason marquis MacClean had not said that was interferes with the Near East war to start. If gives up now, was equal to that the intervention action failure, will be attacked by the incumbent party. 还有一个原因麦克林侯爵没有说,那就是干涉近东战争已经开始了。要是现在罢手,等于干涉行动失败,会被在野党抨击。