On May 20 , 1874, the Tsar government declared war to Poland, in the afternoon the Russian force bridged over the boundary line to launch the attack to the Kingdom of Poland, the Russo-Polish War erupted again. 1874年5月20日,沙皇政府向波兰宣战,当天下午俄军跨过边界线向波兰王国发起了进攻,俄波战争再一次爆发。 Occurs from the Russia , Poland conflict, erupts to the war is also less than from all sides for a week, this efficiency, renovated the cognition of Franz to Tsar government. 从俄波冲突发生,到战争爆发前前后后还不到一个星期,这个效率,刷新了弗朗茨对沙皇政府的认知。 The reform achievement of Alexander II had manifested in the efficiency, according to the Tsar government's past working efficiency, few months did not handle. 亚历山大二世的改革成果已经在效率上体现了出来,按照沙皇政府以往的办事效率,没有几个月时间是搞不定的。 The sudden Russo-Polish War, hit ignorant many people. Governments in Europe responded radically without enough time, the war has started. 突如其来的俄波战争,打懵了很多人。欧洲各国政府根本来不及反应,战争就已经打响了。 London, Prime Minister Ghale Milestone only feels exhausted. Is busy the domestic election, must care that the European situation changes constantly, after the Irish issue was detained . 伦敦,格尔斯顿首相只感到心力交瘁。一面忙着国内的大选,一面又要关心欧洲局势风云变幻,就连爱尔兰问题都被押后了。 „The Near East war is still continuing, the Russia person provoked the war with Pole. They forgot the lesson of previous more than operational failure quickly, who can tell me this middle to have what?” “近东战争还在继续,俄国人又挑起了同波兰人的战争。难道他们这么快就忘了上一次多线作战失败的教训,谁能告诉我这中间发生了什么？” By the rich political experience, Prime Minister Ghale Milestone is certain the Russo-Polish War is not a conflict causes absolutely. In recent years, that Russia and Poland clash surpassed three figures, this time erupted into the war. 凭借丰富的政治经验,格尔斯顿首相可以肯定俄波战争绝对不是一次冲突导致的。这些年来,俄波两国爆发的冲突都超过了三位数,偏偏这次就爆发了战争。 Has a look at the rapid action of Russia person again, clearly is early deliberate. The Near East war diverted the attention of Britain, the London government thinks directly the Russia person prepares is aiming at the Ottoman empire. 再看看俄国人的迅速行动,分明就是早有预谋。近东战争分散了不列颠的注意力,伦敦政府直接认为俄国人备战是在针对奥斯曼帝国。 Therefore, how the English is still finding the way to defend the Ottoman empire. Now does not need to worry, the Tsar government provoked the Russo-Polish War, more energy have not invested into the Near East war. 为此,英国人还在想办法怎么保住奥斯曼帝国。现在不用愁了,沙皇政府挑起了俄波战争,已经没有更多的精力投入到近东战争中。 Foreign minister MacClean: „ Prime minister, according to the evaluation of information that we collect, this Pole's trouble was big. 外交大臣麦克林:“首相阁下,根据我们搜集到的情报判断,这次波兰人的麻烦大了。 The Berlin government to dispatching troops to rescue the Kingdom of Poland is not positive, the war will break out will not have dispatched troops from now on, military mobilization also performance unusual will be slow. 柏林政府对出兵救援波兰王国并不积极,战争爆发过后并没有出兵,就连军事动员也表现的非常迟缓。 The Polish throne election nears, William I support level is high, in the normal condition was elected ninety percent sure. 波兰王位选举在即,威廉一世支持率非常高,正常情况下当选是十拿九稳的。 The biggest barrier is the present Polish government, some certain signs showed, the Polish government prepares to adopt the unusual method intervention election, kicks to be eliminated William I. 最大的障碍就是现在的波兰政府,有一定迹象表明,波兰政府准备采取非正常手段干预选举,将威廉一世踢出局。 Prussian is ambitious about Poland, adopts the method of murdering with a borrowed knife, ahead of time chases off the stage the Polish government is not strange. 普鲁士人对波兰野心勃勃,采取借刀杀人的手段,提前把波兰政府赶下台并不奇怪。 From the current situation analysis, Prussia both countries should make the deal secretly. The Vienna government has not acted, they played what role, in addition we are unable to make the accurate judgment. 从目前的情况分析,普俄两国应该在暗地里达成了交易。维也纳政府还没有动作,他们在这其中扮演了什么角色,我们尚且无法做出准确判断。 Right, the Prussia diplomatic personnel were active recently, frequently with various European countries high-level meeting. Three days ago, I and Prussia minister in London also passes on the Polish issue ditch thoroughly. 对了,普鲁士外交人员最近非常活跃,频繁和欧洲各国高层会晤。就在三天前,我和普鲁士驻伦敦公使还就波兰问题沟深入通过。 In order to resist the threat of Russia person, they want to form Prussia- Polish federation, but also seeks the support to us. 为了对抗俄国人的威胁,他们想要组建普鲁士-波兰联邦,还向我们寻求支持。 If as expected, Prussian also and law Austria both countries have had the contact, does not know that they make the deal. ” 如果不出意外,普鲁士人也和法奥两国有过接触,就是不知道他们有没有达成交易。” Prime Minister Ghale Milestone nods, this explanation to. The Russo-Polish War breaks out suddenly, if said that both countries had not detected beforehand, that could not convince completely. 格尔斯顿首相点了点头,这个解释就对得上了。俄波战争突然爆发,要是说普波两国事先没有察觉,那完全说不通。 If Prussia both countries collude secretly, then passing of all explanations. Prussian makes a move to help the Tsar government cover, attacks Poland to create the condition for the Russian force, the Polish government was kept in the dark is not strange. 如果普俄两国暗地里有勾结,那么就一切解释的通了。普鲁士人出手帮沙皇政府打了掩护,为俄军进攻波兰创造条件,波兰政府被蒙在鼓里就不奇怪了。 Different from other national government, the Polish government is hodgepodge, almost every big powers laid down the nail in inside. 不同于别的国家政府,波兰政府就是一个大杂烩,几乎每一个列强都在里面埋下了钉子。 The Prussia kingdom is strongest in the influence of Poland, many person Dublin government was bought the past. In addition Polish government do, with the military potential like the water and fire, must intercept part of information is too easy. 普鲁士王国在波兰的势力最强,很多人都柏林政府被收买了过去。加上波兰政府自己作死,和军方势如水火,要拦截一部分情报太容易了。 Prime Minister Ghale Milestone knitting the brows head of: „ If Austria has the participation altruistic, then the fourth time is Prussia Austria carved up Poland. 格尔斯顿首相皱了皱眉头:“如果奥地利人有参与,那么就是普俄奥第四次瓜分波兰。 This is not a good phenomenon, making them continue, continental Europe perhaps could not remain several countries finally. 这可不是一个好现象,让他们继续下去,欧洲大陆最后恐怕都剩不了几个国家。 If the Austria advantage has not participated, where benefit then Prussia both countries put out, received exchange for the default of Vienna government? 如果奥地利没有参与,那么普俄两国又拿出了什么地方的利益,换取维也纳政府的默认？ Similarly, the Berlin government promised French many advantage, received in exchange for the support of Paris government, or is Prussian has not earned their support. 同样,柏林政府许诺了法国人多少好处,才换取了巴黎政府的支持,又或者是普鲁士人并没有获得他们的支持。 These issues must make clear, I do not think without obtaining law Austria two countries understanding, Prussia both countries can carve up the Kingdom of Poland in secret. 这些问题都必须要搞清楚,我不认为在没有取得法奥两国谅解的情况下,普俄两国私下里就能够瓜分波兰王国。 Can buy the interests of law Austria two countries to be absolutely big, Prussia both countries are the poor devil, the industry and economic strength are very ordinary, promise should not be economically, then the answer took shape. 能够收买法奥两国的利益绝对不小,普俄两国都是穷鬼,工业、经济实力都很一般,许诺的应该不会是经济上,那么答案就呼之欲出了。 In any event, cannot make their transactions achieve, otherwise law Austria both countries did thoroughly in a big way. ” 无论如何,都不能让他们的交易达成,要不然法奥两国就彻底做大了。” The foreign policy of English is the following benefit walks, analyzes the issue the time all along, will blend massive interest factors. 英国人的外交政策一贯都是跟着利益走,分析问题的时候,也会参杂大量的利益因素。 With this analysis method, many vague issues clear, traces the benefit to know many things directly. 用这套分析方法,很多隐晦的问题都清晰了起来,直接追溯利益就能够知道很多事。 The power strategy is unable to conceal, are the innumerable eyes staring? However any country, not possible, only then one set of strategy, in numerous strategies also exists the primary and secondary division, and this order, along with the international situation changes to change. 大国战略根本就无法隐瞒,无数双眼睛都盯着呢？不过任何一个国家,都不可能只有一套战略,众多战略中也存在着主次之分,并且这个次序,还是随国际局势变化而变化的。 At present various European countries recognize: The French most important strategy digests the Italian area, next expands to Central Europe, captures west of the Rhine territory. 目前欧洲各国公认:法国人最重要的战略是消化意大利地区,其次才是向中欧地区扩张,夺取莱茵河以西的领土。 But Austria benefits the most important strategy unifies the German area, mainly unifies the approval ratings high Germany federation empire, next expands to the Ottoman empire. 而奥地利最重要的战略则是统一德意志地区,主要是统一民众支持率高的德意志联邦帝国,其次才是向奥斯曼帝国扩张。 The mutual diversion because of various European countries, the second war of French slightly is unable to implement, the most important strategy in Austria Leeming surface, cannot conduct. 因为欧洲各国的互相牵制,法国人的第二战略无法实施,奥地利明面上的最重要战略,同样进行不下去。 But once law Austria both countries reach the compromise, Prussia both countries tacitly consented again their actions, that situation was entirely different, the remaining countries want to oppose unable to achieve. 可一旦法奥两国达成妥协,普俄两国再默许他们的行动,那情况就截然不同了,剩下的国家想要反对也做不到。 First Lord of the Treasury Luke Royde: „ Situation is not bad, if really to that step, law Austria both countries must measure strength. 财政大臣拉路克・罗伊德:“情况没有那么糟糕,真要是到了那一步,法奥两国就要一决高下了。 Obviously, the present law Austria both countries have not been ready for war. At least before completing to clear, I do not think that they will erupt into the war. 显然,现在的法奥两国都没有做好战争的准备。至少在完成清场前,我不认为他们会爆发战争。 Naturally, to avoid this situation happened, I thought it is necessary to strengthen the strength of German federation empire. 当然,为了避免这种情况发生,我觉得有必要加强一下德意志联邦帝国的实力。 If Prussian wants to annex Poland, made them give up the Rhineland area being good. In any case to Prussia is together the administrative enclaves, but also was eyed covetously by the French. 如果普鲁士人想要吞并波兰,就让他们放弃莱茵兰地区好了。反正对普鲁士来说都是一块飞地,还被法国人虎视眈眈。 Leaves the French strength with it, might as well throw to the German federation empire was good, when the time comes law Austria both countries can only divert mutually. ” 与其留给法国人增强实力,不如扔给德意志联邦帝国好了,到时候法奥两国就只能互相牵制下去。” This is an open intrigue, the present French empire is rising, as their neighbors on the tragedy, the national defense pressure increased. 这是一个阳谋,现在的法兰西帝国如日中天,作为他们的邻居就悲剧了,国防压力大增。 The Rhineland area administrative enclave, has in the situation of Russian Empire this archenemy in the east side together, once the French the decision begins, the Prussia kingdom is incapable of resisting radically. 莱茵兰地区只是一块飞地,在东边有俄罗斯帝国这个大敌的情况下,法国人一旦决定动手,普鲁士王国根本就无力抵抗。 Since cannot preserve, the position of Rhineland area in Berlin government heart dropped greatly, is used to receive in exchange to annex the Kingdom of Poland, it is estimated that many people will agree. 既然保不住,莱茵兰地区在柏林政府心中的地位就大大下降了,用来换取吞并波兰王国,估计很多人都会同意。 The Rhineland area to the German federation empire, the English does not have the peaceful good intention. Once the Rhineland area merges into the German federation, law Austria both countries can only divert mutually. 把莱茵兰地区给德意志联邦帝国,英国人同样是没安好心。一旦莱茵兰地区并入德意志联邦,法奥两国就只能一直互相牵制下去了。 Even if the Vienna government wants to compromise, carves up the German federation empire of enlargement version with the French, the German People does not comply! 就算是维也纳政府想要妥协,和法国人一起瓜分放大版的德意志联邦帝国,德意志民众不答应啊！ The nationalism decided that once the French has the idea of Rhineland area, the Austria advantage must stand in the German federation standpoint, the Vienna government does not dare to make the concession. 民族主义决定了一旦法国人打莱茵兰地区的主意,奥地利必须要站在德意志联邦的立场上,维也纳政府根本就不敢做出让步。 Otherwise, the Austria advantage wants to annex the German federation empire, the French is impossible to comply. Let the influence that Austria benefits extend to the Rhine west, how does the strategic security in France safeguard? 反之,奥地利想要兼并德意志联邦帝国,法国人也不可能答应。让奥地利的势力延伸到莱茵河以西,法国的战略安全如何保障？ Only if a side dropped down, the goal of other side may be achieved. Under this background, the English can play in law Austria both countries balanced. 除非一方倒下了,另一方的目的才有可能实现。这种背景下,英国人就可以在法奥两国之间玩儿平衡了。 Can law Austria both countries have the strength unbalanced problem, that was the future matter. The foreign policy of London government, always focuses on the present, rather than will pursue that illusory future. 法奥两国会不会出现实力失衡的问题,那是未来的事情了。伦敦政府的外交政策,从来都是着眼于现在,而不是追逐那虚无缥缈的未来。 No one can guarantee that dozens years and over a hundred years will have anything from now on. Today is the ally, tomorrow perhaps will be an enemy, the day after tomorrow will perhaps turn into the ally, providing for a rainy day on diplomacy radically will be a joke. 谁也不能够保证几十年、上百年过后会发生什么。今天是盟友,明天或许就是敌人,后天没准又变成了盟友,外交上的未雨绸缪根本就是一个笑话。 Prime Minister Ghale Milestone: „ This issue is not anxious, first news divulged that to the German federation, wants to obtain the Rhineland area, they must pay the price. 格尔斯顿首相:“这个问题还不急,先把消息透漏给德意志联邦,想要获得莱茵兰地区,他们也必须要付出代价。 Attained after the Rhineland area, the strength of German federation greatly was enhanced, is next to the powerful nation of Spain in continental Europe. 拿到了莱茵兰地区过后,德意志联邦的实力就大大增强了,在欧洲大陆也是仅次于西班牙的强国。 We want careworn strenuous, convinced Prussian for them, but must level the French, they cannot what price not pay! ” 我们要劳神费力,替他们说服普鲁士人,还要摆平法国人,他们总不能什么代价都不付出吧！” In a short time, Prime Minister Ghale Milestone made the judgment. The possibility that Prussian gives up the Rhineland area is big, this means that they can get rid of the threat of French. 短时间内,格尔斯顿首相就做出了判断。普鲁士人放弃莱茵兰地区的可能性非常大,这意味着他们可以摆脱法国人的威胁。 As for bringing the loss, can definitely make the German federation empire make up. The German federation empire was almost the German wealthiest area, the finance compared with the Berlin government, selling a good price issue is not big. 至于带来的损失,完全可以让德意志联邦帝国弥补。德意志联邦帝国几乎都是德意志最富裕的地区,财政比柏林政府强多了,卖一个好价钱问题不大。 Had this sum of money, many issues are easily solved. In the next Prussia war, the Prussia kingdom no longer does not have the odds of success. 有了这笔钱,很多问题都迎刃而解。下一次普俄战争中,普鲁士王国也不再没有胜算。 As the broker, Britain can also scoop up a political interest, expands in the German federation influence. 作为掮客,不列颠还可以从中捞上一笔政治利益,扩大在德意志联邦的影响力。 ...... …… The matter of London government interior, the outside world naturally knows nothing, everyone was attracted the vision by the war. 伦敦政府内部发生的事情,外界自然是一无所知,大家都被战争吸引了目光。 The Near East war and war also breaks out, everyone and other responses in Austria two countries. Many people were guessing, continental Europe can trigger the comprehensive war. 近东战争和普波战争同时爆发,大家都在等普奥两国的反应。很多人在猜测,欧洲大陆会不会引发全面大战。 Prussia, Poland and Ottoman empire can be regarded as the ally, in resisting the issue of Russia person, they missed a paper to make. 普鲁士、波兰、奥斯曼帝国可以看做是盟友,在对抗俄国人的问题上,他们就差一纸条约了。 Russia and Austria benefit are also the allies, theoretically currently the Tsar government has the opportunity to launch Austria Lillah. Once both sides erupt into all -out war, Ottoman definitely cannot be victorious Russian Austria to benefit, then can only a pull people launch. 俄罗斯和奥地利也是盟友,理论上现在沙皇政府有机会把奥地利拉下水。一旦双方爆发全面战争,普波奥斯曼肯定打不过俄罗斯奥地利,那么就只能拉人下水了。 Arrived this step, fantasized that should finish. On May 23 , 1874, Austria benefitted Ministry of Foreign Affairs to indicate the standpoint: The Vienna government absolutely remains neutral in war. 到了这一步,幻想就该结束了。1874年5月23日,奥地利外交部表明了立场:维也纳政府绝对在普波战争中保持中立。 This everyone can feel relieved, the so-called European all-out war, that does not exist, the small country did not need to be worried about the standing in line issue. 这一下大家都可以放心了,所谓的欧陆全面战争,那是不存在的,小国也不用担心站队问题了。 Ankara, the decision of Vienna government disappointed Abdulaziz, he also counted on the European war broke out, shares their military pressure. 安卡拉,维也纳政府的决定令阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹一世非常失望,原本他还指望欧陆大战爆发,分担他们的军事压力。 Now does not need to consider, various European countries are not silly, who without the benefit is willing to go to war? The Vienna government remains neutral in the Russo-Polish War, not as everyone expected. 现在不用考虑了,欧洲各国都不傻,没有利益谁愿意打仗？维也纳政府在俄波战争中保持中立,并没有出乎大家的意料。 Must conduct the territorial expansion unusual difficulty in continental Europe, the legal basis is the biggest difficult problem. Austria benefits to Poland may not have the legal basis, does not occupy a land area legitimately. 要在欧洲大陆进行领土扩张非常的困难,法理基础就是最大的难题。奥地利对波兰可没有法理基础,占地根本就不合法。 This and is different in the Balkan Peninsula expansion, snatches the land not to need to be worried about the legal principle theory of law issue from the Ottoman empire, does not need to be worried that was condemned by the public opinion. The Vienna government withstand/top is „liberator” title, rather than invader. 这和在巴尔干半岛扩张不一样,从奥斯曼帝国抢土地不需要担心法理问题,也不用担心受到舆论谴责。维也纳政府顶得是“解放者”头衔,而不是侵略者。 Snatching Poland was different, although big is not popular, that is also the sovereign state that everyone acknowledged that snatched territory of Kingdom of Poland to invade. 抢波兰就不同了,尽管大波波不怎么受欢迎,那也是大家承认的主权国家,抢波兰王国的领土那就侵略。 It is not able to capture the territory, the Polish government is also poor, launches the war unable to receive the military expenses, Austria benefits to the Polish area has no interest in being also very normal. 无法夺取领土,波兰政府又穷得叮当响,发动战争连军费都收不回来,奥地利对波兰地区没兴趣也很正常。