Franz's expectation not wrong, after the Greek catches Ludwigg this would-be king, what to do did not know should. 弗朗茨的预料没有错,希腊人抓到路德维希这位准国王后,就不知道该怎么办了。 The insurrectionary armies also had the fission, few people advocate to found the Republic, attempts to get rid of Austria's control to Greece. 起义军内部也发生了分裂,一部分人主张建立共和国,企图摆脱奥地利对希腊的控制。 Another part of people advocated supports Ludwigg to succeed to the throne, reason: Prince Ludwigg is the throne rightful heir. 另一部分人则主张拥立路德维希继位,理由:路德维希王子是王位合法继承人。 Austria has not dispatched troops to interfere with enough time, the republican faction soon did with Wang-school. The republican faction many are a capitalist, in one group two youngster, Wang-school naturally is an aristocrat. 奥地利还没来得及出兵干涉,共和派和保王派就快要干起来了。共和派多是资本家,还有一帮中二少年,保王派自然是贵族。 As for the large group of farmer and worker, they are the viewers, this coup d'etat and they have no relations, does not need them to indicate the standpoint. 至于人数众多的农民、工人,他们都是看客,这次政变和他们没有任何关系,不需要他们表明立场。 Before the coup d'etat starts, they can cooperate, that is to expel Bavaria Cabinet of Otto I, captures the highest right of government. 政变发动前,他们能够合作,那是为了驱逐奥托一世的巴伐利亚内阁,夺取政府的最高权利。 Now the goal was achieved, for right two schools on bar on. At present grasps the aristocrats of most armies to get the winning side, perhaps does not need Austria to dispatch troops to Ludwigg to mount the throne. 现在目的实现了,为了权利两派就杠上了。目前掌握大部分军队的贵族占据了上风,或许不需要奥地利出兵路德维希都有可能登上王位。 Looks at the information in hand, Franz is not knowing how should appraise. The reaching an agreement revolution is coming, how to have started to finish? 看着手中的情报,弗朗茨都不知道该怎么评价好。说好的革命来着,怎么还没有开始就结束了？ The inference, Franz knows slightly some people are doing the matter. Greece is the projectile small country, present Greece, half of later generation Greece. 稍加推断,弗朗茨就知道有人在搞事情。希腊本身就是弹丸小国,现在的希腊,还不到后世希腊的一半。 The territory narrow and small, resource-deficient, the population are most also 1 million, in this case, how does the capitalist grow strong? 领土狭小、资源匮乏,人口最多也就百万,这种情况下,资本家如何发展壮大呢？ The sufficient strength, the geographical position is not superior, is not a good deed. From starts independently, Greece continuously deeply by the influence of big powers. 没有足够的实力,地理位置优越,并不是一件好事。从独立开始,希腊一直都深受列强的影响。 The heavy debt, letting the Greek government be in being unable to make ends meet condition for a long time, has to step up to plundering of folk. 沉重的债务,让希腊政府长期处于入不敷出状态,不得不加紧对民间的掠夺。 The home market of Greece, had degenerated into the big powers commodity dumping place. The national capital has wandered on the life and death edge, perhaps adds completely, but also the net worth of no big capitalist. 希腊的本土市场,早就沦为了列强商品倾销地。民族资本一直都在生死边缘徘徊,或许全部加起来,还没有一个大资本家的身家。 The economic strength of Greek aristocrat is also not much, at least in others hands also has the army. Now the capitalist also forms the army, although is also at a disadvantage, this also surpassed their strength. 希腊贵族的经济实力也不咋地,至少人家手中还有军队。现在资本家也组建了军队,虽然还处于下风,这也超过了他们的实力。 Franz does not believe, the capitalists can destroy the family/home are the countries. Even if there is others morals to be noble, impossible entire community so. 弗朗茨可不认为,资本家们可以毁家为国。就算是有个别人道德高尚,也不可能整个群体都如此。 The politics is complex, seen not necessarily real. Austria can make the smoke shell to deceive the person, other country is also doing. 政治是复杂的,看到的也不一定是真的。奥地利可以制造烟雾弹糊弄人,别的国家同样也在干。 The sudden Greek turbulence, is actually whose writing skill, before without accurate information, Franz is unable to make the accurate judgment. 突如其来的希腊动荡,究竟是谁的手笔,没有确切情报前,弗朗茨也无法做出准确判断。 Misfortune never come singly. 一波未平,一波又起。 Does not wait for the Greek problem solve, Bulgaria was also chaotic. On September 11 , 1873, Bulgarian Revolution Union mobilized the anti-Russia uprising in Sophia. 不等希腊问题解决,保加利亚又乱了。1873年9月11日,保加利亚革命同盟在索菲亚发动了反俄起义。 ...... …… Bulgaria, this is a country of tragedy. Expelled Ottoman Empire with great difficulty, came to a Russian Empire. 保加利亚,这是一个悲剧的国家。好不容易赶走了奥斯曼帝国,又来了一个俄罗斯帝国。 Benefits from czar government the effort of bureaucrats, the past pro-Russian faction, basically turns into the anti-Russia faction now. 得益于沙皇政府的官僚们的努力,当年的亲俄派,现在基本上都变成了反俄派。 Looks that Poland and Central Asia three countries are independent, the Bulgarian said that does not move that definitely is impossible. But the Russian takes seriously Constantinople, here is having the large army, cancelled many person independent thoughts. 看着波兰、中亚三国独立,保加利亚人说道不动心那肯定是不可能的。只不过俄国人非常重视君士坦丁堡,在这里驻扎着重兵,打消了很多人独立的念头。 No matter how said, Russian's rule be stronger than Ottoman Empire, exploitation is not ruthless, both sides are almost same in the cultural field and religious belief. 不管怎么说,俄国人的统治还是要比奥斯曼帝国强些,剥削的没有那么狠,双方在文化领域、宗教信仰上几乎一样。 If the czar government has a mind to promote the nationality to fuse, on one generation of matter. Can St. Petersburg government such thoughts, Russian Empire not have so many nationalities otherwise. 如果沙皇政府有心推动民族融合,也就一代人的事情。可以圣彼得堡政府没有这样的心思,要不然俄罗斯帝国也没有那么多民族了。 The people do not have thousand days good, the flower does not have the hundred days to be red. 人无千日好,花无百日红。 Tyrannical temporary Russian Empire declined eventually. Since the Russian is defeated after very soon war, the national independence thought takes root in Bulgaria. 强横一时的俄罗斯帝国终究还是没落了。自从俄国人在普俄战争中失败后,民族独立思想就在保加利亚扎下了根。 The agricultural crisis is another catalyst. The industry of Bulgaria only started, the economy depends entirely on the agricultural support. Because international grain price plummet, the farmer in Bulgarian area lost last year seriously. 农业危机是又一催化剂。保加利亚的工业才刚刚起步,经济全靠农业支撑。因为国际粮食价格暴跌,去年保加利亚地区的农民就损失惨重。 Sees the fall harvest to be near, the grain actually nobody will ask, this intensifies the panic of people. 眼看着秋收将近,粮食却无人问津,这又加剧民众们的恐慌。 Now has the hearsay to flow out saying: In order to protect local grain export, the czar government forbids to collect the grain in Bulgaria. 现在已经有小道消息流出说:为了保护本土粮食出口,沙皇政府禁止在保加利亚收粮。 The person who the news of this obvious fabrication, is willing to believe are many. General public so many experiences, they had not noticed that this year no one collects the grain. 这种明显造假的消息,愿意相信的人还不少。普通民众没有那么多见识,他们只是看到今年没有人来收粮。 Not is only Bulgaria, almost entire continental Europe grain capitalists slowed down the footsteps. Also is a bumper year, no one knows how many grain price will fall, what to do if purchased to compensate ahead of time? 不光是保加利亚,几乎整个欧洲大陆粮食资本家们都放慢了脚步。又是一个丰收年,谁也不知道粮食价格会下跌多少,要是提前收购赔了怎么办？ Must know that the last year price dramatic turmoil, many people compensated a lot of money. Before the grain has not started, but can also pass the burden the loss to the farmer, if buying, that can only carry. 要知道去年的价格剧烈动荡,很多人都赔了不少钱。粮食没有入手前,还可以把损失转嫁给农民,要是买到了手中,那就只能自己背着了。 In order to protect own interests, the capitalists choose first wait and see the wind direction. After steady market, collects the grain from the folk again. 为了保护自身的利益,资本家们选择先观望风向。等市场稳定后,再从民间收粮。 Keeps in stock also to have in any case, cannot digest for a short time, does not need to be worried that the grain was snatched up by others. 反正库存还有很多,一时半会儿消化不完,不用担心粮食被别人抢光了。 Russian these years are not have not done, as the imprisonment on top of the head was excised, the education of Bulgaria obtained the vigorous development. 俄国人这些年也不是什么没有做,随着头顶上的禁锢被摘除,保加利亚的教育事业得到了蓬勃发展。 The new knowledge member comes under the nationalism influence earliest, they forgot the Russian to expel the merit of Osman person quickly, now only remembers enslaving of Russian. 新知识分子是最早受到民族主义影响的,他们很快就遗忘了俄国人赶走奥斯曼人的功劳,现在只记得俄国人的奴役。 Naturally, the czar government will definitely not acknowledge enslaves Bulgaria, because the reform of Alexander II treats impartially, many Bulgarian farmers are the beneficiaries. But this wave of dividend has not felt with enough time, the agricultural crisis first broke out. 当然,沙皇政府肯定不会承认奴役保加利亚,因为亚历山大二世的改革一视同仁,不少保加利亚农民都是受益者。只不过这波红利没有来得及感受,农业危机就先爆发了。 In July 1869, Bulgarian Revolution Union was founded in the Greek secret. In order to drive away the Russian, almost all Bulgarian revolutionary organizations joined the alliance. 1869年7月,保加利亚革命同盟在希腊秘密成立。为了赶走俄国人,几乎所有的保加利亚革命团体都加入了联盟。 Many people cannot think, urges the real reason that the alliance presents unexpectedly is: The land system reform of Russian. 很多人都想不到,促使联盟出现的真正原因居然是:俄国人的土地制度改革。 The revolutionary party worried that the czar government bought over the farmer, the revolutionary cause must die. Therefore the czar government is reforming in Bulgaria, encountered the common resistance of the conservative faction and revolutionary party. 革命党担心沙皇政府收买了农民,革命事业就要夭折了。所以沙皇政府在保加利亚进行的改革,遭到了保守派和革命党的共同抵制。 In this process, both sides realized the confluence, the revolutionary influence started to expand. 在这个过程中,双方实现了合流,革命势力开始壮大。 ...... …… Read the basic information of Bulgaria, Franz was lost in thought. This time revolted rather too the coincidence, just decided and Russian does the matter jointly, Greece and Bulgaria had almost the revolution simultaneously. 看完了保加利亚的基本资料,弗朗茨陷入了沉思中。这次起义来得未免太巧合了一些,刚刚决定和俄国人联手搞事情,希腊和保加利亚几乎同时发生了革命。 Must say that behind this are not related, is completely a coincidence, kills Franz not to believe. He rather believes that this is deliberate, some people want to aim at Russia and Austria, or is the protracted time. 要说这背后没有联系,完全就是一个巧合,打死弗朗茨也不相信。他宁愿相信这是有预谋的,有人想要针对俄奥两国,或者说是拖延时间。 The Greek revolution is good to solve, even the military force solution, nothing but is the issues of 1-2 masters, to Austria is only the small issue. 希腊革命好解决,就算是武力解决,无非是1-2师的问题,对奥地利来说只是小问题。 What troubled is only the international pressure, Austria cannot dispatch troops to interfere in the Greek internal affairs with no reason at all casually, this related to the international image. 麻烦的只是国际压力,无缘无故奥地利也不能随便出兵干涉希腊内政,这关系到了国际形象。 When the whore must set up the memorial arch, this is not the joke piece, but needs obviously. Any country, is packing itself, nothing but is many issues of resource. 当婊子还要立牌坊,这不是笑话段子,而是显然需要。任何一个国家,都在包装自己,无非是投入资源的多少问题。 In situation that the benefit is insufficient, everyone is willing to keep the fine international image. Even if UK , France still, must look for a excuse in outbound expansion, rarely has to disregard directly comes up headstrongly. 在利益不足的情况,大家还是愿意保持良好的国际形象。即便是英法也不例外,在海外扩张中都要寻找一个借口,很少有不管不顾直接莽上去的。 This small issue cannot baffle Franz, changes an agent similarly. For example present Greek Wang-school, is a good operation target. 这点儿小问题难不倒弗朗茨,换个代理人同样可以。比如说现在的希腊保王派,就是一个不错的合作对象。 So long as they support Ludwigg to succeed to the throne, and ensure the interests of Austria, are wielded Greece is also good by them. 只要他们拥立路德维希继位,并且保证奥地利的利益,由他们执掌希腊也不错。 Bulgaria troubled, the Near East in time of war Bulgaria Guerrilla forces displayed the good battle efficiency, although this army died of old age, but the person is also living, perhaps broke through enemy lines the physical strength unable to follow, the instruction experience, directed the combat or the issue is not big. 保加利亚就麻烦了,近东战争时期保加利亚游击队就表现出了不俗的战斗力,这支部队虽然老去,可是人还活着,冲锋陷阵或许体力跟不上,传授经验、指挥作战还是问题不大的。 Franz suspected, the Russian can suppress this rebellion. Was not worried that the Russian does not have the strength, is mainly the czar government does not have money. 弗朗茨非常怀疑,俄国人能不能扑灭这次叛乱。不是担心俄国人没实力,主要是沙皇政府没钱。 „Did secret evil behind-the-scenes manipulator lock?” “幕后黑手锁定了么？” Intelligence head Terren: „Initial judgment is Ottoman Empire, the Greek coup d'etat, is Bulgaria Uprising, the weapon is Osman merchant supports.” 情报头子泰伦:“初步判断是奥斯曼帝国,无论是希腊政变,还是保加利亚起义,武器都是奥斯曼商人赞助的。” Ottoman Empire must counter-attack, Franz does not feel the accident/surprise. Must get the gate, but can also not make others counter-attack inadequately? 奥斯曼帝国要反击,弗朗茨并不觉得意外。都要打上门了,还能不让人家反击不成？ The truth who knows? Some Ottoman Empire Greek and Bulgarians, these „Osman merchant” on outwardly is the patriotic merchant in Greece and Bulgaria. 真相谁知道呢？奥斯曼帝国还是有一部分希腊人、保加利亚人,这些“奥斯曼商人”明面上都是希腊、保加利亚的爱国商人。 Even if the news divulged, only then the Sudanese government did not acknowledge, or is stated categorically these people are not Osman people, Austria is still very difficult to use something as a pretext on this. 就算是消息泄露了,只有苏丹政府不承认,或者是一口咬定这些人都不是奥斯曼人,奥地利在这上面也很难借题发挥。 Nationality gadget, was too easy to make in this age, which international merchant few nationalities? Which everyone is needs with, without the Internet, did not recognize the multi- nationalities even, was still very difficult to check. 国籍这玩意儿,在这个年代太容易弄了,哪个国际商人没几个国籍？大家都是需要哪个用哪个,没有互联网,就算是不承认多国籍,也很难查出来。 Since must do the matter, naturally must tidy up the head and tail, perhaps deeply investigates, these people have the Austrian nationality. 既然要搞事情,自然要收拾好首尾了,没准深入调查下去,这些人还有奥地利国籍。 The secret evil behind-the-scenes manipulator, Franz looked that who has the suspicion. Superficially the Ottoman Empire suspicion is biggest, the suspicion of Russian is smallest, the suspicion of UK , France and Austria is similar. 幕后黑手,弗朗茨看谁都有嫌疑。从表面上看奥斯曼帝国嫌疑最大,俄国人的嫌疑最小,英法奥三国的嫌疑差不多。 Hesitated, Franz said: „Ok, continued to stare on the line. If the secret evil behind-the-scenes manipulator must continue to act, sooner or later will give oneself away ; If receives the hand, the present result is not too bad.” 迟疑了一下,弗朗茨说道:“算了,继续盯着就行了。幕后黑手如果要继续行动,早晚都会露出马脚;要是就此收手,现在的结果也不是太糟。” Without the means that the Greek and Bulgarians are the muddled ghosts, oneself do not know that who the secret supporter is, did blurry. 没有办法,希腊人和保加利亚人都是糊涂鬼,自己都不知道幕后支持者是谁,就迷迷糊糊的干了。 How does this also trace? Do not think these actions, certainly is the government plan, the bureaucrat, capitalist and aristocrat , may also be the murderer/culprit. 这还怎么追查？不要以为这些行动,一定就是政府策划的,官僚、资本家、贵族,同样也有可能是真凶。 The driven machine, there is a suspicion were too many. 从动机上来说,有嫌疑的太多了。 For example: In order to win the time prepares, the Sudanese government provoked the incident, disperses the energy of Russia and Austria ; 比如说:为了争取时间备战,苏丹政府挑起了事端,分散俄罗斯和奥地利的精力; Also or is UK , France wants to help Ottoman Empire ; 又或者是英法想要帮奥斯曼帝国一把; Also may is Austria does, the goal is to attack the Russian, has the advantage in the interest distribution, this can cross out, Franz can prove oneself have not done. 还有可能就是奥地利干的,目的是打击俄国人,在利益分配中占据优势,这一条可以划掉,弗朗茨可以证明自己没干。 From the benefit, the home arms merchant, the agricultural capitalist and big aristocrats have certainly the suspicion. 从利益上来说,当然国内军火商、农业资本家、大贵族都有嫌疑。 The person who a number of munitions, to not having channel is difficult, but to having person of human relations, on the issues of tens of thousands aegises. 一批军火而已,对没有渠道的人来说非常困难,但是对有人脉关系的人来说,也就几万神盾的问题。 No matter in the international market the munitions price is much high, in fact the ordinary guns and ammunition is not indeed valuable. The second-hand rifle only needs 34 aegises to buy one, the wholesale can also be cheaper. 甭管国际市场上军火价格多高,实际上普通的枪支弹药的确不值钱。二手步枪只需要三四神盾就能买一支,批发还可以更便宜。 The big aristocrats who the present chaotic situation, the arms merchant and agricultural capitalist, produce the grain is a beneficiary. If nothing else, this year's grain price stood firm probably. 现在的乱局,军火商、农业资本家、生产粮食的大贵族都是受益者。别的不说,今年的粮食价格大概是稳住了。 Did not mean that the war consumed how much grain, did not say that Bulgaria and Greece are the important grain exporters, mainly gave the market confidence. 并不是说战争消耗了多少粮食,也不是说保加利亚和希腊是重要的粮食出口国,主要是给了市场信心。 The international grain price crashes, the main reason was the market lost confidence, must otherwise, the capitalists also meet the tray, maintained the grain price to be stable through the artificial hype. 国际粮食价格崩盘,最主要的原因就是市场丧失了信心,要不然的话,资本家们还会托盘,通过人为炒作维持粮食价格稳定。 Overcapacity how, so long as controlled the trading market, similarly can send the signal that fell short of demand to the outside world. 产能过剩又怎么样,只要控制住了交易市场,同样可以给外界传递出供不应求的信号。 So long as there is a reasonable excuse, making everyone believe in the market to lack the grain this year, can flicker enough many speculators to come, artificial will cook up the high grain price. 只要有一个合理的借口,让大家相信今年市场上会缺粮,就能够忽悠足够多的投机者进来,人为的炒高粮价。 If nothing else, having a look the news that the newspaper issues to know. From the under-production summons of Vienna government, the media on the unceasing singing song of praise, as if the agricultural crisis have passed. 别的不说,看看报纸发布的消息就知道了。从维也纳政府的减产号召开始,媒体就不断的唱赞歌,仿佛农业危机已经过去了。 The European newspaper nearly uniform grain production news, the so-called experts are excessively exaggerating " Land Fallow Law » function, announcement that some people also boast shamelessly: In 1873 the European grain capacity will drop 20%. 欧洲报纸近乎清一色的粮食减产新闻,所谓的专家学者们都在过度夸大《土地休耕法》的作用,有人还大言不惭的宣布:1873年欧洲粮食产能将会下降百分之二十。 This is the acrobatics that the interest group plays, can flicker many people, this no one knew. Counter- Zhengkeng the smart person, was not really good goes down to the rural area to inspect, all understood. 这都是利益集团玩儿出来的把戏,能够忽悠多少人,这就没人知道了。反正坑不了聪明人,实在不行深入农村考察一下,就全明白了。 The market survey does not know the speculator who is, will die by the pit sooner or later, a day dies with late one day early dies, does not have the essential difference. 市场调研都不知道做的投机者,早晚都会被坑死,早一天死和晚一天死,都没有本质上的区别。 After the Greek coup d'etat and news of Bulgarian eruption revolution travels, on September 13 , 1873, in London Futures Market the grain price rose 5 percentage points on the same day. 希腊政变和保加利亚爆发革命的消息传开后,1873年9月13日,伦敦期货市场上粮食价格当天就上涨了五个百分点。