Vienna palace 维也纳宫 Foreign minister Wessenberg smilingly said: „ Your majesty, the condition that to seek our support, Prussia both countries pledge is almost same. 外交大臣韦森贝格笑眯眯的说:“陛下,为了寻求我们的支持,普俄两国都开出的条件几乎一样。 The Russia person promised, so long as we support them, can obtain Silesia after the war ; Prussia pledged, so long as we remain neutral, cedes the Silesia area after the war. ” 俄国人许诺只要我们支持他们,战后可以获得西里西亚;普鲁士承诺只要我们保持中立,战后就割让西里西亚地区。” Commitment of Russia person is generous others the indignance, the Tsar government will not mind that buys Austria to benefit with the Prussia benefit. 俄国人的承诺那是慷他人之慨,沙皇政府不会介意拿普鲁士的利益收买奥地利。 The commitment of Berlin government, that is compelled not to have the means that they are not willing to give up Silesia. In order to win war, they must stand firm Austria to benefit. 柏林政府的承诺,那是被逼得没办法,他们也不愿意放弃西里西亚。为了赢得了战争,他们必须要稳住奥地利。 Won this war, their payouts can double received ; Lost the war, Galicia cannot preserve. 赢得了这场战争,他们的付出都可以加倍的收回来;输掉了战争,加里西亚根本就保不住。 Although passed these years, but Austria benefits others about the Silesia area still takes to heart. Especially in recent years, with increase of strength, in the Vienna government takes back the call of Silesia area to be getting higher and higher. 尽管过去了这么些年,可奥地利人对西里西亚地区依然耿耿于怀。尤其是最近几年,随着实力的增加,维也纳政府中收回西里西亚地区的呼声越来越高。 Once the Prussia kingdom has the weak trend, Austria will benefit will definitely hit a person when he is down, now the Berlin government has to first stand firm Austria to benefit. 一旦普鲁士王国出现弱势,奥地利肯定会落井下石,现在柏林政府不得不先稳住奥地利。 Looks Felix who starts to speak but hesitates, Franz asks: „How does prime minister see?” 看着欲言又止的费利克斯,弗朗茨问道:“首相怎么看？” Prime Minister Felix replied: „ Your majesty, this two are not the best choices, what we need is Prussia is mutually wounded. 费利克斯首相回答道:“陛下,这个两个都不是最好的选择,我们需要的是普俄两败俱伤。 Now the alliance of we and Russia person had been an eyesore very much, various European countries are being seperate this alliance try hard. If the Tsar government continues to win, the problem that in the future we will encounter will be only more. 现在我们和俄国人的联盟已经很碍眼了,欧洲各国都在为拆分这个联盟而努力。如果沙皇政府继续胜利下去,未来我们遇到的麻烦只会更多。 To us, the present Russian Empire is powerful enough. If made the Tsar government complete the domestic reform, suddenly Austria Alliance also did have the value is very difficult to say. 对我们来说,现在的俄罗斯帝国已经够强大了。要是让沙皇政府完成了内部改革,俄奥联盟还有没有价值就很难说了。 Similarly, a more powerful Prussia kingdom, does not serve our benefits. Europe was too small, cannot accommodate so many powerful nations. ” 同样,一个更加强大的普鲁士王国,也不符合我们的利益。欧洲太小了,容不下这么多强国。” Prussia mutually wounded this is the most perfect condition. Not can only interrupt the reform of Alexander II with the hand of Prussian, making Tsar government reform compared with historically not thorougher ; Also can break the Prussian ambition, opportunity that this failure they will not have risen from now on again. 普俄两败俱伤这是最理想状态。不但可以借普鲁士人的手打断亚历山大二世的改革,让沙皇政府这次改革比历史上更加不彻底;同时也可以打断普鲁士人的野心,这次失败过后他们就再也没有崛起的机会。 But must achieve this unusual difficulty, at least Franz does not think that the Austria advantage is capable of playing this balance. 可是要做到这一点非常的困难,至少弗朗茨不认为奥地利有能力玩儿这个平衡。 The Prussia kingdom lost to be finished one time, superficially the Russia person can lose many times, in fact this very empty, the Tsar government internal problem were too many, Franz did not determine their loss bearing capacity. 普鲁士王国输一次就完蛋,表面上来看俄国人可以输很多次,实际上这非常的虚,沙皇政府内部问题太多,弗朗茨也不确定他们的损失承受能力。 This is different from the Near East war, at that time the Russian force projected on entrance Constantinopolis, the domestic each social class is supporting the war, the big loss Tsar government must insist. 这和近东战争不一样,当时俄军打到了门口君士坦丁堡,国内的各个阶级都都在支持战争,再大的损失沙皇政府都必须要坚持。 Franz thinks saying: „ This idealist plan do not have, is very easy to play to crash, finally does not try to keep the favor of both sides. 弗朗茨想了想说:“这种理想主义计划就不要有了,很容易玩儿崩盘,最后两边不讨好。 According to physical demand, we, so long as achieved two points enough: 按照实际需求,我们只要做到两点就够了: First, disrupts the reform of Tsar government using Prussian, so long as the Russia person is unable in a short period to win, Alexander II will yield to the conservative faction, this reform will not be thorough ; 一、利用普鲁士人打乱沙皇政府的改革,只要俄国人无法短期间内获得胜利,亚历山大二世就会向保守派让步,这次改革就不会彻底; Second, the Prussia kingdom cannot do in a big way, the German area had a powerful nation enough, does not need to increase a competitor again. 二、普鲁士王国不能够做大,德意志地区有一个强国就够了,没有必要再增加一个竞争对手。 Strengthens the Prussia strength the matter, can make UK , France do, we must do gives the Tsar government blood transfusion when necessary, strengthens determination that they hit. ” 增强普鲁士实力的事情,可以让英法去干,我们要做的就是在必要的时候给沙皇政府输血,坚定他们打下去的决心。” Two flatter is not possible, if were really so dry, the final result is two detests and rejects mostly, becomes unpopular everywhere and with everybody. 两头讨好是不可能的,真要是那么干了,最后的结果多半是两相厌弃,变得里外不是人。 The function of suddenly Austria Union is reducing, but a treaty of alliance day has not relieved, Austria benefits cannot hold to the Russia person publicly the knife. 俄奥同盟的作用正在降低,可是盟约一天没有解除,奥地利就不能公开给俄国人捅刀子。 This related to Austria to benefit the prestige in international politics diplomacy, country that did not have the prestige, if never wants to earn everyone's respect. 这关系到了奥地利在国际政治外交中的信誉,一个没有信誉的国家,永远不要想获得大家的尊重。 The Prussia government is luckily intelligent enough, has not played anything to attack without prior notice, has not invaded Russia on own initiative, otherwise according to treaty of alliance Austria benefitted also drew in the war. 幸好普鲁士政府够聪明,没有玩儿什么不宣而战,也没有主动入侵俄罗斯,不然根据盟约奥地利也被拖入了战争。 The present situation is the Prussia kingdom invades Denmark, the Russia person to protect this little brother, declares war to the Prussia kingdom. 现在的情况是普鲁士王国入侵丹麦,俄国人为了保护这个小弟,向普鲁士王国宣战。 This situation, is not at suddenly Austria Union must in the combat range. 这种情况,并不在俄奥同盟的必须参战范围之内。 The Kingdom of Denmark is the ally of Russia person, was not equal to that they are the ally that Austria benefits, the Vienna government do not need with the Russia person to stand. 丹麦王国是俄国人的盟友,并不等于他们也是奥地利的盟友,维也纳政府不需要和俄国人站在一起。 First Lord of the Treasury Carl reminded: „ Your majesty, the finance of Tsar government is bad, the Russia person is slow-acting, to a great extent was constrained by financial resource. 财政大臣卡尔提醒道:“陛下,沙皇政府的财政非常糟糕,俄国人行动迟缓,很大程度上是受到了财力的限制。 A short time ago, the bond that the Tsar government issued met coldly in the capital market, the investors were worried that the Russia person will repudiate a debt. 前不久,沙皇政府发行的债券在资本市场上遇冷,投资者们担心俄国人会赖账。 According to data analysis that we grasp, the finance of Russia person, if could not be improved, the Tsar government might announce the bankruptcy again. ” 根据我们掌握的资料分析,俄国人的财政如果还得不到改善,沙皇政府有可能会再次宣布破产。” In suddenly Austria Union has the stipulation: Without harming self-interest, there is a duty to provide the commodity to aid to the ally. 俄奥同盟中有规定:在不损害自身利益的情况下,有义务向盟友提供物资援助。 Theoretically, in this situation the Vienna government must help, this is the selective issue. However, how to support must look at the actual situation. 理论上,这种情况下维也纳政府怎么也要帮一把,这是选择性问题。不过,怎么支持就要看实际情况了。 Providing the loan is the aid, donates the commodity also to aid, the special details must look at the benefit. 提供贷款是援助,捐赠物资也是援助,具体情况还是要看利益。 Enough benefit, has not taken some arms and ammunition to make up the number from the warehouse casually, similarly can deal with. 没有足够的利益,随便从仓库中拿些武器弹药凑数,同样可以应付过去。 The attitude of First Lord of the Treasury is obvious, that is the Tsar government finance is bad, the war might go bankrupt from now on very much, the Austria advantage does not need to jump this pit. 财政大臣的态度非常明显,那就是沙皇政府财政非常糟糕,战争过后很有可能会破产,奥地利没有必要跳这个坑。 The finance goes bankrupt, in continental Europe is not always something new. Especially Tsar government, once the government debt went beyond the bearing capacity, they will announce the bankruptcy. 财政破产,在欧洲大陆从来都不是一件新鲜事。尤其是沙皇政府,一旦政府债务超过了承受能力,他们就会宣布破产。 The government bankruptcy means the front debt they unlimited temporarily suspend payment, can understand for not. This type of matter Tsar government did a lot, many creditors by wanting to cry but have no tears of pit. 政府破产意味着前面的债务他们无限期的暂停支付,也可以理解为不还了。这种事情沙皇政府干得多了,很多债主被坑的欲哭无泪。 Naturally is not every country has the qualifications to repudiate a debt, this age also way receives money- military force duns. 当然不是每个国家都有资格赖账,这个年代还有一种方式收钱-武力讨债。 Even if the small country announced the bankruptcy, usually still reneged the individual debt, the big powers debt must, for example: Big powers regulation finance. 小国就算是宣布破产,通常也只是赖掉个人债务,列强的债还是要还的,比如说:列强监管财政。 Mexico is a negative example, without the strength also dares to learn from others to repudiate a debt. In 1862 president Juarez announced that temporarily suspend payment debt, then the French creditors killed to visit. 墨西哥就是一个反面例子,没实力也敢学习人家赖账。1862年总统胡亚雷斯宣布暂停支付债务,然后法国债主就杀上门去了。 This way is invalid to the Russia person, but also has no creditor to be capable of killing St. Petersburg to ask for money. The pit number of times were many, in the capital market lent money on no one to Tsar. 这种方式对俄国人无效,还没有哪个债主有能力杀到圣彼得堡去要钱。坑的次数多了过后,资本市场上就没人借钱给沙皇了。 Asking of Franz surprise: „Has the finance of Russia person deteriorated this degree?” 弗朗茨诧异的问:“俄国人的财政已经恶化到了这种程度？” In his memory, the finance of Tsar government, although is bad, has not actually arrived at the collapse the situation. Even if has Prussia war a time, is still insufficient to go bankrupt immediately. 在他的记忆中,沙皇政府的财政虽然糟糕,却没有到崩溃的地步。就算是打一次普俄战争,也不至于马上破产。 First Lord of the Treasury Carl explained: „ Since your majesty, modern times, ordinary European country, so long as can insist, will find the way to repay a debt as far as possible, rarely has to repudiate a debt, however the Russia person is the exception. 财政大臣卡尔解释道:“陛下,近代以来,普通的欧洲国家只要能够坚持下去,就会尽可能的想办法还债,很少有赖账的,然而俄国人是例外。 According to the past experience, the debt of Tsar government arrived at the certain extent, they will announce the bankruptcy. Recently we collected an information, the Tsar government had completed the bankrupt plan. ” 根据以往的经验,沙皇政府的债务到达了一定程度,他们就会宣布破产。最近我们收集到了一个情报,沙皇政府已经做好了破产预案。” Franz was speechless, actually the medieval period king announced the matter that the bankruptcy repudiates a debt are many, will come almost every dozens years one time. 弗朗茨无话可说了,其实中世纪时期国王宣布破产赖账的事情很多,几乎每隔几十年都会来一次。 Many capitalists were cried by the pit, by Jewish capitalist by pit most. This is the too rich reason, most money gathered in their hands, whom didn't ask them to lend money to look for? 很多资本家都被坑哭了,其中以犹太资本家被坑的最多。这是太有钱的缘故,大部分的钱聚集到了他们手中,不找他们借钱找谁？ Naturally, were been also many by the pit king. The Jewish capital is irritant , because they bury the nail in the loan contract frequently, the kings of many lending money were swindled, must pay many interest additionally. 当然,被坑的国王也很多。犹太资本招人恨,就是因为他们常常在贷款合同中埋钉子,不少借钱的国王都上了当,要额外支付很多利息。 Facts showed that the rule is not affable, particularly the monarchy time, dares to deceive their money, must pay the price. The platoon of continental Europe still the movement, majority comes. 事实证明统治不好惹,尤其是君主制时代,敢骗他们的钱,都是要付出代价的。欧洲大陆的排犹运动,大部分就是这么来的。 Since the modern times, the strength continuous growth of capital, all governments are getting fewer and fewer through the matter that the bankruptcy repudiates a debt, especially has the big powers background international loan not to dare to repudiate a debt. 进入近代,资本的力量不断壮大,各国政府通过破产赖账的事情越来越少,尤其有列强背景的国际贷款更加不敢赖账。 The age that everyone repudiates a debt together, has not naturally related, in any case bad people are bad everywhere. But others start to obey the rule suddenly, remaining your one person repudiated a debt are very prominent. 大家一起赖账的年代,自然是没有关系,反正天下乌鸦一般黑。可是突然间别人都开始遵守规则,就剩下你一个人赖账就很突出了。 A creditors propaganda, the credibility of Tsar government was finished. Without the prestige, a lot are not easy to do, has the Russia person to use the embarrassing situation of gold coin and silver coin. 债主们一宣传,沙皇政府的信誉就这么完蛋了。没有了信誉,很多事情都不好办,才有俄国人使用金币、银币的尴尬局面。 Franz thinks saying: „ Then we also tighten the money market outward, reminded the domestic financial circle to strengthen vigilantly. 弗朗茨想了想说:“那么我们也对外收紧银根,提醒国内的金融界加强警惕。 The support to the Russia person, is primarily the material object to aid. All loans to very soon large, must have the collateral. ” 对俄国人的支持,以实物援助为主。所有的对俄大额贷款,都必须要有抵押品。” This was also hits a person when he is down. These limiting conditions, increased the Tsar government to benefit the difficulty of capital market financing to Austria without doubt. However so long as the Tsar government does not repudiate a debt, even if puts out the multi- collateral still to might as well again. 这也算是落井下石了。这些限制条件,无疑是增加了沙皇政府对奥地利资本市场融资的难度。不过只要沙皇政府不赖账,就算是拿出再多抵押品也无妨。 Had the collateral, even if the Russia person announced the bankruptcy, was impossible to renege these debts. After all the value of collateral, usually surpasses the loan. 有了抵押品,就算是俄国人宣布破产,也不可能赖掉这些债务。毕竟抵押品的价值,通常都是超过贷款的。 Franz also has to for it, probably know that a short time ago the Tsar government took Alaska to charge against the debts of 2.57 million aegises, but also the supplementary owed a favor. If really could not support, the Russia person will not do absolutely. 弗朗茨也是不得不为之,要知道前不久沙皇政府就拿阿拉斯加冲抵了257万神盾的债务,还附带欠下了一个人情。如果不是真的撑不住了,俄国人绝对不会这么干。 ...... …… When the Austria advantage was worried the Russia person goes bankrupt, the London government also faced the similar issue, most engages in wanton military activities the country that as continental Europe, the Prussia kingdom is not the rich lord. 在奥地利担心俄国人破产的时候,伦敦政府也面临了同样的问题,作为欧洲大陆是最穷兵黩武的国家,普鲁士王国可不是有钱的主。 Now lends money to the Berlin government, the risk does not lower to the Russia person compared with the loan a little. The war bond that the Berlin government issues, meets coldly in the London money market. 现在借钱给柏林政府,风险一点儿不比贷款给俄国人低。柏林政府发行的战争债券,在伦敦金融市场上遇冷。 If the Prussia kingdom gambling won, then the possibility must money ; If the Prussia kingdom lost, or is mutually wounded, these investments threw away carelessly. 如果普鲁士王国赌赢了,那么还有可能还得起钱;要是普鲁士王国输了,或者是两败俱伤,这些投资都打水漂了。 Favors the Prussia person is not many, everyone is not willing to draw cash adventure. Even if the debenture interest has enhanced the annual interest 15.8, the sales volume is still less optimistic. 看好普鲁士的人不多,大家不愿意拿钱去冒险。即便是债券利息已经提高到了年息15.8,销量依然不容乐观。 The donor as Prussia kingdom, the London government naturally cannot look that this situation happened. Without enough money, what dozen of this wars does the Prussia kingdom take? 作为普鲁士王国的金主,伦敦政府自然不能够看着这种情况发生。没有足够的钱,普鲁士王国拿什么打这场战争？ First Lord of the Treasury Agarossi said: „ We to the war bond of Prussian release, have sold 1.869 million pounds until now, is too far from the emission amount 15 million disparities. 财政大臣阿加瓦尔说道:“我们已经给普鲁士人发行的战争债券,至今为止只是销售出去了186.9万英镑,距离发行额1500万差距太远。 The people did not favor them to win this war, only if some people can provide the guarantee to them, otherwise this bond did not have the means to sell. 民众们不看好他们能够赢得这场战争,除非有人能够给他们提供担保,否则这笔债券没有办法销售出去。 The finance of Prussia kingdom is bad, in 1848 starts now, they have been at the deficit condition. 普鲁士王国的财政非常糟糕,1848年开始到现在,他们一直处于赤字状态。 The domestic many financial institutions think that the Prussia finance in the bankrupt edge, refuses to give them to provide the loan. ” 国内的多家金融机构都认为普鲁士财政在破产的边缘,拒绝给他们提供贷款。” The donors are not good to work as, this is must invest the really gold/metal silver. The expenditure of Prussia war is doomed is large amount of expenses, the possibility of complete wipe-out is big. 金主也不好当,这是要投入真金白银的。普俄战争的花费注定是一笔巨额开销,血本无归的可能性还非常大。 Prime Minister John Russell rubbed the forehead saying: „Said, we pledged aid to Prussia kingdom, haven't these two months collected 1/5?” 约翰-罗素首相揉了揉额头说:“这么说,我们承诺给普鲁士王国的援助,这两个月时间还没有筹集到五分之一？” According to the agreement, the English must provide 10 million sterling credit to the Prussia kingdom, in addition issues 15 million pounds war bond. 按照约定,英国人要向普鲁士王国提供1000万英镑贷款,外加发行1500万英镑战争债券。 The present condition is, paid in advance 5 million pounds besides the London government to the Prussia government, in the capital market radically nobody will ask. 现实情况是,除了伦敦政府预支了500万英镑给普鲁士政府外,资本市场上根本就无人问津。 This is the sequela of Near East war, UK , France have not won the Russia person, let alone is the Prussia kingdom? 这是近东战争的后遗症,英法都没有打赢俄国人,更何况是普鲁士王国呢？ Even the London government, does not think that the Prussia kingdom can win this war. Must support them, that to interrupt the reform of Russia person, did not count on that the Prussia kingdom can win. 即便是伦敦政府,也不认为普鲁士王国能够打赢这场战争。要支持他们,那只是为了打断俄国人的改革,并不是指望普鲁士王国能够获得胜利。 „Yes, prime minister. Everyone does not have the confidence to Prussia, therefore is quite discrete in the investment.” First Lord of the Treasury Agarossi replied “是的,首相阁下。大家对普鲁士没有信心,所以在投资的时候都比较谨慎。”财政大臣阿加瓦尔回答道 Supports the Prussia kingdom to attack the Russia person, the British People support, but must take out money to be different. 支持普鲁士王国打击俄国人,英国民众还是非常支持的,可是要掏钱了就不一样了。 When some newspapers of London are betting the Prussia kingdom to be defeated. 伦敦的一些报纸都在赌普鲁士王国什么时候失败。 The most optimistic estimate also believes, the Prussia kingdom can support for a year then to lose the war ; Most pessimistic believes, could not want one month of Berlin government to surrender. 最乐观的估计也只是认为,普鲁士王国能够支撑一年时间然后输掉战争;最悲观的则认为,要不了一个月时间柏林政府就会投降。 The outside world generally thinks that the Prussia kingdom must win this war, only if UK , France enters the war personally, otherwise the failure is only the time issue. 外界普遍认为普鲁士王国要赢得这场战争,除非是英法亲自参战,不然失败只是时间问题。