The Balkan Peninsula has the refugee crisis, does not have the attention, although many media reported that that is one has also brought. 巴尔干半岛发生难民危机,并没有外界的关注,尽管有不少媒体都报道了,那也是一笔带过。 Standing and remaining aloof from the thing of no immediate concern to oneself. Is general in any world, this age Osman person's impression in a native of Europe heart is not good. 事不关己,高高挂起。在任何一个世界都是通用的,这个年代奥斯曼人在欧洲人心中印象并不好。 Almost can regard as is the barbaric generation of expressions, a heathen, belonged not to have of human rights again in addition. 几乎可以看成是野蛮的代言词,再加上一个异教徒,就属于没有人权的那种了。 Naturally, everyone cannot pay attention, the belly of person on one's own side could not have filled, who has the mood to care about the life of Osman person? 当然,大家也关注不过来,自己人的肚子都还填不饱,谁有心情关心奥斯曼人的死活啊？ The outside world does not pay attention, Franz is also glad so. Later generation that speaking irresponsibly and sarcastically white left, remains at the initial stage now, without right to speak. 外界不关注,弗朗茨也乐得如此。后世那种站着说话不腰疼的白左,现在还停留在初级阶段,没有话语权。 Everyone's vision gathers in Constantinople and Crimea Peninsula, the Near East war projected on the present, the warring parties have started the specific speed. 大家的目光都汇聚到了君士坦丁堡和克里米亚半岛,近东战争打到了现在,交战双方已经开始比速度了。 If the Russian first attacks and captures Constantinople, then they obtained the strategic advantage, can sever Str. of Bosporus, UK , France besides the compromise, can only and they dies to knock in the Balkan Peninsula. 如果俄国人先攻克君士坦丁堡,那么他们就获得了战略优势,可以切断博斯普鲁斯海峡,英法除了妥协之外,就只能在巴尔干半岛和他们死磕下去。 Otherwise, UK , France first attacked and captured Crimea Peninsula, then they had the strategic advantage, can take advantage of opportunity to smash the Russian in the ship-building industry of Black Sea, necessity that the Constantinople campaign has not continued to work. 反之,英法先攻克了克里米亚半岛,那么他们就占据了战略优势,可以顺势捣毁俄国人在黑海的造船工业,君士坦丁堡战役也没有继续进行下去的必要了。 Do not look at Black Sea Fleet to be finished, the Russian has not prepared to counter-attack. The sail battleship construction difficulty of this age is not big, the Russian has not shut down in the shipyard in Sea of Azov. 不要看黑海舰队完蛋了,俄国人就没有准备反击了。这个年代的风帆战舰建造难度又不大,俄国人在亚速海的造船厂可没有停工。 After eats owed one time, the Russian in the shore artillery of coastal area of Black Sea, conducted the overhaul, the bureaucrats of czar government even again incompetent, still knows that cannot continue to come under attack passively. 吃了一次亏过后,俄国人在黑海沿岸的岸炮,都进行了检修,沙皇政府的官僚们就算是再无能,也知道不能继续被动挨打下去了。 The important military harbor, An Pao has redeployed. UK , France Navies are not silly, naturally cannot take the warship and An Pao to the bang. 重要的军事港口,岸炮已经重新部署了起来。英法海军又不傻,自然不会拿军舰和岸炮对轰了。 Plan according to St. Petersburg, so long as Constantinople were attacked and captured, then enters the UK , France fleet of Black Sea becomes without the duckweed of root, slowly rubs also to be able the enemy to rub. 按照圣彼得堡的计划,只要君士坦丁堡被攻克,那么进入黑海的英法舰队就成为了无根之萍,慢慢磨也可以把敌人磨死。 The Sevastopol fort starts to creaky, Constantinople also fell to the enemy most probably, decided that the both sides destiny the time has arrived. 塞瓦斯托波尔要塞开始摇摇欲坠,君士坦丁堡同样沦陷了大半,决定双方命运的时刻已经到了。 The history changed, has the Russian who Austria supports to erupt stronger battle efficiency. Under Nicholas I personally intervention, after several logistics officials, the Russian force of Crimea Peninsula successfully replaced finally. 历史发生了改变,拥有奥地利支持的俄国人爆发出了更加强大的战斗力。在尼古拉一世亲自的干预下,咔嚓了几名后勤官员过后,克里米亚半岛的俄军总算是成功换装了。 However the logistics supply also becomes more difficult, the modern weapons are advanced, the logistics pressure is bigger, to depending upon the Russian of ox cart transportation is also a big challenge. 不过后勤补给也变得更加困难,现代化武器越是先进,后勤压力就越大,对依靠牛车运输的俄国人来说也是一大挑战。 Vienna 维也纳 Franz is reading the African map, the colony cannot open carelessly. Has the place of lord unable to bump, the present Austria does not suit with the old-style imperialist country initiates the big conflict. 弗朗茨正在看非洲地图,殖民地也不是可以胡乱开辟的。有主之地不能碰,现在的奥地利不适合和老牌殖民帝国发起大的冲突。 Next, and poor does not have the resources, the area of does not have any development potential, Franz does not prepare to bump. Colonizing must look at the cost, business that has been able to do business at a loss, pouring the custom make is not long-time. 其次,穷且没有资源,没有任何发展潜力的地区,弗朗茨也不准备碰。殖民也是要看成本的,一直会赔本的买卖,注定做不长久。 Finally, powerful indigenous cannot annoy, if frustrated not to take, that does lose face. 最后,强大的土著不能惹,万一出师不利没有拿下来,那就丢人丢大发了。 Rules out after these three factors, the remaining choices are not many. 排除这三个因素过后,剩下的选择就不多了。 Recent naturally attacks Ottoman Empire, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt are the recent choices. After thinks, Franz without hesitation hit a fork in these three options. 最近的当然是进攻奥斯曼帝国,突尼斯、利比亚、埃及都是最近的选择。想了想过后,弗朗茨毫不犹豫的在这三个选项上打了个叉。 The time is not right, now Osman person and UK , France or the ally, begin to cause UK , France to interfere rashly, Austria made the bridal clothes for them, finally the wool could not fish. 时机不对,现在奥斯曼人和英法还是盟友,冒然动手引起英法干涉,奥地利就替他们做嫁衣了,最后毛都捞不到。 The most valuable South Africa, the coastal area had fallen into a native of Britain hand, Algeria is the meat in French bowl, Morocco encounters UK , France and Spain to peep at simultaneously. 最有价值的南非,沿海地区已经落入了英国人手中,阿尔及利亚已经是法国人碗里的肉,摩洛哥同时遭到了英法西三国窥视。 Franz's helpless discovery good place is others family/home. Morocco had not been carved up, has a hand to meddle to slice, naturally this must choose the breakthrough point. 弗朗茨无奈的发现好地方都是别人家的。摩洛哥还没有被瓜分,插手进去分一杯羹还可以,当然这必须要选好切入点。 This age not by the land that the big powers stare, almost does not exist. Stares indifferently, without were eaten everyone to be able respectively depending on the method. 这个年代没有被列强盯上的土地,几乎是不存在的。盯上无所谓,只要没有被吃下去大家都可以各凭手段。 The alternative list came out all of a sudden: Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Gabon, Congo, Namibia, Kenya and Sannia, Somalia, Zanzibar and Madagascar...... 备选名单一下子出来了:几内亚、科特迪瓦、尼日利亚、贝宁、多哥、加蓬、刚果、纳米比亚、肯尼亚、塔桑尼亚、索马里、桑给巴尔、马达加斯加…… The inland in the consideration range, does not exceed an African farther area not to plan, Franz suspects the open sea ability of Austrian Navy. 内陆不在考虑范围之内,超越非洲更远的地区也不在计划中,弗朗茨非常怀疑奥地利海军的远洋能力。 Franz asked: „ Plan cannot catch up changes quickly, the wave of refugees who the Balkan Peninsula erupts is a trouble, is an opportunity, since bumped into cannot waste. 弗朗茨问道:“计划赶不上变化快,巴尔干半岛爆发的难民潮是一个麻烦,也是一个机遇,既然碰上了就不能够浪费。 Wants from the home to the African continent immigrants is very difficult, having a look at the UK , France countries to know, the people rather went to the ocean rather one side American mainland, is not willing to go to the close African continent. 想要从国内向非洲大陆移民是非常困难的,看看英法各国就知道了,民众们宁愿去大洋宁一边的美洲大陆,也不愿意前往近在咫尺的非洲大陆。 The refugee quality of Balkan Peninsula is also not much, but also compares indigenous again badly, the earlier population of development colony had, then our colonizing plans must start ahead of time. 巴尔干半岛的难民素质也不怎么样,不过再差也比土著强,开发殖民地的前期人口有了,那么我们的殖民计划要提前开始了。 This is the map of African continent, these do not have the mark is the place of without owner, everyone thinks to look where we from do start well? ” 这是非洲大陆的地图,这些没有标记的都是无主之地,大家都想想看,我们从什么地方下手最好？” Mineral resource shenma, this age is the unknown, the European colonizers did not have the ability to complete the exploration, therefore now everyone's judgment way very primitive. 矿产资源神马的,这个年代都属于未知数,欧洲殖民者还没有能力完成勘探,因此现在大家的判断方式非常的原始。 Looks at the development degree directly, the local area is wealthy enough, can colonizing gain. The Austrian government must consider one, suits the development agriculture, can support these immigrants. 直接看开发程度,当地够不够富裕,殖民能不能赢利。奥地利政府还要多考虑一条,是否适合发展农业,能不能养活这些移民。 Prime Minister Felix analyzes saying: „ Your majesty, Guinea can consider, the coastal plain area is easy to control, the local water source is sufficient, suits the development agriculture, establishes beginning colonizing foothold very good. 费利克斯首相分析道:“陛下,几内亚可以考虑,沿海平原地区容易控制,当地的水源充足,适合发展农业,建立初起殖民据点非常的不错。 From the distance, here is also recent. At present here competitor are not many, was the French tricks several chiefs to sign the treaty, was not big in the local influence. 从距离上来看,这里也是最近的。目前这里的竞争对手不多,也就是法国人忽悠几个酋长签订了条约,在当地的影响力并不大。 Nigeria is also good, the natural condition is superior, the economic value is relatively high. However the local indigenous strength is quite strong, the influence of English also penetrated. 尼日利亚也不错,自然条件优越,经济价值相对较高。不过当地的土著实力比较强,英国人的势力也深入了过来。 Then is the Congo area, has the aquatic channel thorough inland, controlling is quite easy. Inside product is also good, colonizes here should not to lose money. 然后就是刚果地区,有水上通道深入内陆,控制起来比较容易。里面的物产也不错,殖民这里应该不会亏本。 The present stage, these three places are quite appropriate. Cannot guarantee that certainly can get many interests, at least in five years, these three places can achieve the balanced revenues and expenditures. 现阶段来说,就这三个地方比较合适。不能保证一定能获得多少利益,至少在五年之内,这三地都可以做到收支平衡。 In addition my delivered the past immigration from the Balkan Peninsula, operated for more than ten years later, can form a small market in the area, was one slightly makes up to the domestic industry. ” 加上我的从巴尔干半岛送过去的移民,经营十几年后,在当地也可以形成一个小市场,对国内的工业也是一个小补。” After other area naturally detains for the time being, colonizing must consider the cost, naturally must choose the benefit most suitable area. 别的地区自然是暂且押后了,殖民也是要考虑成本的,当然要选择利益最适合的地区。 The strategic location, the development trend, these are not in everyone's consideration range. Now can the money-making colony, be the good colony. 战略位置,未来发展,这些都不在大家的考虑范围之内。现在能够赚钱殖民地,就是好的殖民地。 The future issue, said when the time comes again. Everyone is the realist, the colony is not a native place, do not count on that everyone will consider far. 未来的问题,到时候再说。大家都是现实主义者,殖民地又不是本土,不要指望大家会考虑多远。 Colonizing, is a long-term investment, can recoup the cost as soon as possible, making the profit is the pursue of colonizers. 殖民活动,又是一项长期性的投资,能够尽快收回成本,实现赢利才是殖民者们的追求。 The colony that naturally does not make money also has, to a country, cannot calculate the administrative cost profit and loss purely. 当然不赚钱的殖民地也有,对一个国家来说,并不能单纯的计算行政成本盈亏。 If the colony market can promote the development of domestic industry and commerce, or is to make up for the domestic defect certain resources, withstands certain losing money, is acceptable. 如果殖民地市场能够促进国内工商业的发展,或者是弥补国内缺失的某些资源,承受一定的亏本,也是可以接受的。 The German in this aspect history is the material for negative education, the seized colony area is big, what a pity the development is limited, by 1914 Germany's immigration more than 20,000 people in African continent. 这方面历史上的德国人就是反面教材,占领的殖民地面积不小,可惜开发有限,截止到1914年德国在非洲大陆上的移民才2万余人。 German's colony operation has been at the losing money condition, the colony of length and breadth has not made for the domestic industry and commerce development too in a big way contributes, the colony market in the foreign trade contributed 0.5 merely. 德国人的殖民地经营一直处于亏本状态,广袤的殖民地并没有为国内的工商业发展做出太大贡献,在对外贸易之中殖民地市场仅仅贡献了0.5。 Franz naturally must absorb to teach, first is the control colonizing cost, the domestic administrative mode cannot use obviously. 弗朗茨自然要吸取教训了,首先就是要控制殖民成本,国内的管理模式显然是不能用了。 Metternich proposed: „ Your majesty, we just started the overseas to colonize, can only succeed cannot be defeated, now is not suitable takes risk. 梅特涅提议道:“陛下,我们刚开始海外殖民,只能成功不能失败,现在不宜进行冒险。 First begins in Guinea and Congo area, these two competitor strengths are not strong, so long as our speeds are fast enough, caused the established facts to be OK. ” 先在几内亚和刚果地区动手吧,这两处的竞争对手实力不强,只要我们的速度够快,造成既定事实就可以了。” The colony is different from the native place, the goal that Austria stares, now looks is also some values, but value not high area. 殖民地不同于本土,奥地利盯上的目标,现在看起来也只是属于有些价值,但又价值不高的地区。 Now the Near East war in the critical moment, everyone's attention is being attracted, takes action the good opportunity. 现在近东战争正在关键时刻,大家的注意力都被吸引了,正是采取行动的良机。 This age opens the African colony, is the risk and opportunity coexists, UK , France not for two weak colonies will wage a war. 这个年代开辟非洲殖民地,是风险与机遇并存,英法不会为了两块鸡肋殖民地大动干戈。 Right was the weak colony, in the UK , France hand suits the agricultural production the area is too many, the goal of Austria could not have seen what unique element at present. 没错就是鸡肋殖民地,英法手中适合农业生产的地区太多了,奥地利的目标目前还看不到有什么特殊之处。 Most critically these two places, the local area does not have the big influence of unification, once Kingdom of Kongo has declined, has not prevented the strength of Austria. 更关键的是这两个地方,当地没有统一的大势力,曾经的刚果王国早已没落,没有阻挡奥地利的实力。 In comparison, Nigeria was not the fruit cake, at least seemed like some strengths. Rules here Follanyi empire, the ample force launches the holy war to look. 相比之下,尼日利亚就不是软柿子了,至少看上去有些实力。统治这里的富拉尼帝国,还有余力发动圣战就可以看出来。 Naturally did not mean that Austria with here, mainly pays with the issue of income. Follanyi empire again how , the change they were only population several million agricultural country. 当然并不是说奥地利拿不下来这里,主要是付出与收益的问题。富拉尼帝国再怎么样,也改变不了他们只是一个人口几百万的农业国。 The population's first great nation of later generation Africa, does not have the shadow now. The entire African continent altogether on 20 million population, distributes on 30 million square kilometers land, vast territory with a sparse population to desperate. 后世非洲的人口第一大国,现在连影子都还没有。整个非洲大陆一共就两千万人口,分布在三千万平方公里的土地上,地广人稀到令人绝望。 This is also the reason that Metternich opposes to begin rashly, the religious belief is also very crazy, once were started, suffices Austria to receive. 这也是梅特涅反对冒然动手的原因,宗教信仰也是非常疯狂的,一旦被发动起来,也够奥地利受的了。 In addition vast territory with a sparse population, these religious fanaticism members, if does to destroy, made one have a headache. Although the human bomb has not been born, but the suicide attack has appeared. 加上地广人稀,这些宗教狂热分子要是搞起破坏来,也令人头疼。人肉炸弹虽然还没有诞生,可是自杀式攻击已经出现了。 Cannot to maintain colony's rule, Austria does send out several hundred thousand armies to exterminate these mixed fish? The cost is the core that the colonial empire establishes, could not control the cost, then the colonial empire from crashing was not far. 总不能为了维护殖民地的统治,奥地利就派出几十万军队去剿灭这些杂鱼吧？成本才是殖民帝国建立的核心,控制不了成本,那么殖民帝国距离崩盘就不远了。 How long without to hesitate, Franz made decided: „ First takes these two, as the first step of our overseas colonizing! 没有犹豫多久,弗朗茨就做出了决定:“就先拿这两处,作为我们海外殖民的第一步！ The General Staff Headquarters start the military deployment immediately, this land navy wants the joint operations, do not make what joke, everyone's face is when the time comes unattractive. ” 总参谋部立即开始军事部署,这次陆海军要联合行动,不要闹出什么笑话来,到时候大家的面子就不好看了。” Marshal Radeski replied: „Yes, your majesty!” 拉德斯基元帅回答道:“是,陛下！” Obviously Franz this saying some meaning of striking, the matter of Balkan wave of refugees has not passed, without investigating the responsibility of General Staff Headquarters, that stabilizes for the government, does not represent does not investigate. 显然弗朗茨这话也有敲打的意味,巴尔干难民潮的事情还没有过去,没有追究总参谋部的责任,那只是为了政府稳定,并不代表就不追究了。 If this time matter handled, then made reparations to uncover the merit ; If had the problem, even Marshal Radeski, unavoidably is still dirty. 如果这次的事情办好了,那么将功赎罪就揭过去了;如果出现了问题,即便是拉德斯基元帅,也免不了要灰头土脸。