How starts to study with Shealy Organization to seize the future, thus forms compared with the behavior that the transnormal suppresses to Huaxia, the action in south island appears extremely „petty”, they also for so-called „moral battle” obtains the great achievement to dance with joy, had not actually realized slightly, this magnified public opinion, fundamentally, can the result of ignores. 与希利组织开始研究怎么去抢占未来,从而对华夏形成超常规压制的行为相比,南岛方面的行动显得极其“小家子气”,他们还在为所谓的“心战”取得重大成果而欢欣鼓舞,却丝毫没有意识到,这种扩大化的舆论,从根本上,就是可以放任的结果。 After the discussion gradually develops most peak, all popular feelings gathered a sound finally: 在讨论逐渐发展到最顶峰之后,所有的舆情最终汇聚成了一种声音: The Huaxia official does not pay attention to the life of people, disregards the people health. 华夏官方不关注民众的死活,置民众健康于不顾。 In order to prove their arguments, in the network suddenly starts to spread long charts that gathered massive historical cases, related to various social contradictions, the frantic followers disseminates this long chart incisively everywhere, tried to explain the social environment of this country already rottenly to the incurable degree. 为了证明他们的这条论据,网络上突然开始流传起一张汇聚了大量历史案例的长图,其中涉及各种社会矛盾尖锐点,狂热的追随者们到处传播这张长图,试图去说明这个国家的社会环境已经烂到了无可救药的程度。 So long as although the slightly rational analysis then can point out simply this so-called evidence the absurd place, but under the raging tide of public opinion, two its wonderful communication studies effects started to have the function. 虽然只要稍加理性分析便可以简单地指出这张所谓证据的荒谬之处,但在舆论的狂潮下,两种其妙的传播学效应开始发生了作用。 The first type, is the survivor bias. 第一种,是幸存者偏差。 These have the so-called the evidence and public opinion of ability to the person who conduct the rational analysis, often has stronger independent thinking ability, to have a more rational calm character, in the meantime, such special characteristics made them undertake on the other hand a more important role in the society, naturally, they were assigned were more important, a more complex work. 那些有能力对所谓的证据和舆论进行理性分析的人,往往具备更强的独立思考能力、也具有更理性沉稳的性格,同时,这样的特质让他们在社会中承担了相对来说更重要的角色,理所当然的,他们被分配了更重要、更复杂的工作。 Therefore, their leisure times then reduce naturally, in this under few leisure times, they have favored relatively pay attention truly with the related realistic topic, rather than a hole Laifeng, will create the talking nonsense topic of waste to own time obviously. 于是,他们的闲暇时间便自然而然地减少,在这样已经相对较少的闲暇时间之下,他们更倾向于去关注真正与自己相关的现实话题,而不是一个空穴来凤、显然会对自己的时间造成浪费的扯淡话题。 Described with simpler words: Has the person who the ability argued is not idle, they disdained in argued, but without person who the ability argued, often degenerated into is led the rhythm object. 或者用一种更简单的话语来描述:有能力去辩解的人没那么闲,他们不屑于去辩解,而没有能力去辩解的人,往往就沦为了被带节奏的对象。 In such a case, still stayed in these people in network and public opinion platform, often is only left over the frantic rhythm manufacturer, as well as was coerced, wants to revolt against the strength to have the average person of falling short. 在这样的情况下,仍然留在网络和舆论平台上的那些人,往往就只剩下狂热的节奏制造者,以及被裹挟其中的、想要反抗却力有不逮的普通人。 The survivor bias forms, the final result is, the online rhythm is partial in a rhythm manufacturer side completely. 幸存者偏差就此形成,最终的结果就是,网上的节奏全部偏向于节奏制造者一方。 However, this is also not the final result, because of another effect of communication studies, after the survivor bias forms starts to catch up, that is „silent screw”. 然而,这还不是最终的结局,因为传播学的另一个效应,是在幸存者偏差形成之后才开始发力的,那就是“沉默螺旋”。 „Silent screw” this word appears in a paper that 1974 «Dissemination Journal» on published earliest, it described such a phenomenon: People when expressed oneself idea and viewpoint, if saw viewpoint that oneself approved, and it received widespread welcome, then people think subconsciously own viewpoint was „popularity”, „correct and reasonable”. “沉默的螺旋”这一词最早出现在1974年《传播学刊》上发表的一篇论文,它描述了这样一个现象:人们在表达自己的想法和观点的时候,如果看到自己赞同的观点,并且其受到了广泛的欢迎,那么人们将会下意识地认为自己的观点是“大众化”的、“正确、合理的”。 Otherwise, if people have not seen the viewpoint that oneself approve, or even saw, but does not have the support of many people, even suffered the attacks and debates of many, then people will choose remain silent do not express oneself viewpoint. 反之,如果人们并未看见自己赞同的观点,或者说即使看见了但是没有多少人的支持,甚至遭受了不少人的抨击、辩论,那么人们将选择保持沉默不发表自己的观点。 In other words, when „rhythm” in the public opinion platform takes up the mainstream, participates in the rhythm the population will be getting more and more, the sound that they make is also getting more and more loud. 也就是说,当“节奏”在舆论平台上占据主流的时候,参与到节奏中去的人数会越来越多,他们所发出的声音也越来越大。 When this sound as big as certain extent, beyond these survivor biases, does not want to voice, but under more and more grim situation the person, but needs to voice wants to voice again, already without enough time. 当这种声音大到一定程度的时候,那些幸存者偏差之外的、本来不想发声,但迫于越来越严峻的形势而需要发声的人再想发声,就已经来不及了。 Hence, the silent screw forms officially, the agenda establishment of public opinion by about, the unrest was started to form thoroughly, and is hard to reverse. 至此,沉默螺旋正式形成,舆论的议程设置彻底被左右,风潮开始形成,并且难以逆转。 In such a case, wants to change the agenda again, only then depends upon the powerful external force to involve, for example official, for example third party regulator. 在这样的情况下,再想要去改变议程,就只有依靠强有力的外部力量来介入,比如官方、比如第三方监管者。 But, under the current rhythm, the natural flaws was doomed even the official fate, still without the means changes the agenda, that is, this agenda not attesting to falsity. 但,在当前的节奏下,有一个天然的缺陷注定了即使官方下场,也没办法去改变议程,那就是,这个议程的不可证伪性。 I said you do is not good, how you showed that you can complete? 我说你做的不好,你怎么证明你做得好呢？ Yourself are the referee, the evidence that the referee takes, will some people believe? 你自己就是裁判,裁判拿出来的证据,难道有人会相信吗？ I said that you are the constitutive oppression, if you want to show that is not the constitutive oppression, must conduct the structural promotion, making so-called „receives oppression” a side obtain the extremely remarkable advantage. 我说你是结构性压迫,你要是想证明不是结构性压迫,就必须进行结构性的升格,让所谓“受到压迫”的一方获得极为显著的优势。 If from the rational perspective, this is not a misdemeanor, because the function of media and public opinion is to promote the development of society. 如果从理性的角度来说,这并非坏事,因为媒体和舆论的作用就在于推动社会的发展。 However, in the opinion environment of current comprehensive interconnection, such strategy is completely invalid, because, the sponsors of these rhythms, will never satisfy. 但是,在当前全面互联的舆论环境下,这样的策略是完全行不通的,因为,那些节奏的发起者,永远不会满足。 Everyone is clear about this point, the rhythm sponsor, their secret instigation, or receives a side of impact, can understand this so-called open intrigue. 所有人都清楚这一点,无论是节奏的发起者、还是他们的幕后主使者,亦或是受到冲击的一方,都能看懂这个所谓的阳谋。 Based on this situation, south island had even started the celebration ahead of time. 基于这种情况,南岛方面甚至已经提前开始了庆祝。 They have not thought that one that one's own side to shift the internal contradictions drops at fingertips child can achieve such effect unexpectedly, therefore, in this time so-called the resources that „moral battle” invests are also getting more and more, was as for the direction department from the initial ministry of economic affairs direct ascent Executive Yuan, the range of project participants also started to expand unceasingly. 他们没有想到,己方为了转移内部矛盾信手落下的一子居然能达到这样的效果,于是,在这次所谓的“心战”中投入的资源也越来越多,乃至于指挥部门从最初的经济部直接上升到了行政院,参与人员的范围也开始不断扩大。 This is almost a comprehensive victory, fast incomparable, overwhelming victory. 这几乎是一场全面的胜利,一场迅捷无比的、压倒性的胜利。 But what they do not know, faced with that side of impact, thinks. 但他们不知道的是,面临冲击的那一方,也是这么想的。 ....... ....... In a still Hai's rented room, Luo Xiaoming is on the cell phone and opposite netizen intensely to the line. 尚海的一间出租屋内,罗晓明正在手机上与对面的网友激烈对线。 He does not want to participate in such discussion, because he has experienced the public opinion education, is completely at heart clear, such public opinion is also gust, after waiting for the crest of wave to cross, most people will forget oneself had said what words, have done anything. 他本来根本不想参与这样的讨论,因为他是经历过舆论教育的,心里完全明白,这样的舆论也就是一阵风,等风头过了之后,大部分人都会忘记自己说过什么话、做过什么事。 However, he has to participate in this discussion, because of opposite netizen, is his girlfriend. 但是,他又不得不参与这次的讨论,因为对面的网友,是他的女朋友。 Matter is sudden, in the previous second, he friendly is still communicating the evening to eat anything with the girlfriend, the next second, the girlfriend starts to complain that the recent dish rises in prices, even if he had explained vigorously this meat price rise is the complementary waves of grain campaign a while ago the ugly country initiated, but the opposite party was still unforgiving makes the words that made him go wild: 事情的发生是突如其来的,在前一秒,他还在跟女朋友友好地交流着晚上要吃什么,下一秒,女友就开始抱怨最近的菜品涨价,哪怕他已经极力去解释这次的肉价上涨是前段时间丑国发起的粮食战役的余波,但对方仍然不依不饶地打出了那句让他抓狂的话: „Having money to do that type to be dangerous and useless big airplane, does not have under money attention the life of poor person.” “有钱搞那种又危险又没用的大飞机,就没钱关注下穷人的生活。” If makes he himself describe, he was very difficult to talk clearly itself at that time is any same mood, scenes that but when seeing the instance of these words, before his brain flashes through itself, immediately takes the graduate cadre went to the remote mountain area to help the poor experiences, therefore, his then violent walked at the scene. 如果让他自己来描述,他很难说得清楚自己当时是什么一样的心情,但在看到这句话的瞬间,他的脑子里立刻闪过了自己之前作为大学生干部前往偏远山区扶贫时经历的一幕幕场景,于是,他当场便暴走了。 Thereupon, two-hour launches to the line. 于是乎,长达两个多小时的对线就此展开。 „Some Huaxia how many people could not have eaten meal, a Golden Crow project consumes tens of billions funds, if these money the minute/share arrive in our hands, at least everyone can also divide several hundred? Do you know how many years several hundred money enough poor households did eat?” “华夏还有多少人吃不上饭,一个金乌项目消耗几百亿的资金,这些钱如果分到我们手里,至少每个人也能分几百块吧？你知不知道,几百块钱够一个贫困家庭吃多少年了？” „I know certainly, I clearly know compared with you! However first, the fund of Golden Crow consumption is the special funds, does not affect the uses of other funds. Second, without such strategic project, you thinks that your several hundred dollars can also buy the vegetable/dish? Others strategic bombers hang daily above you, the social order has collapsed!” “我当然知道,我比你知道得更清楚！但是首先,金乌消耗的资金是专项资金,并不影响其他资金的使用。第二,如果没有这样的战略工程,你以为你的几百块钱还能买到菜？人家的战略轰炸机天天悬在你头上,社会秩序早就崩溃了！” „Why will collapse? Does Northern Europe have the strategic bomber? Did they collapse? Isn't the high welfare policy that they maintain also revolves well?” “为什么会崩溃？北欧有战略轰炸机吗？他们就崩溃了吗？他们维持的高福利政策还不是运转得好好的？” „Your this view is purely the mourning conscience, Northern Europe, and even does the high benefits of entire Europe maintain by what? What they eat is the initial capital of imperialism, what eaten was in the past the flesh that exploited from the third world country, do not forget, we also once one of the exploited objects!” “你这种说法纯属丧良心,北欧、乃至整个欧洲的高福利是靠什么维持的？他们吃的是帝国主义的老本,吃的是当年从第三世界国家剥削来的血肉,你别忘了,我们也曾经是被剥削的对象之一！” „What's the big deal? We had been exploited by the bystander, can be oppressed one round by the person on one's own side now?” “那又怎么样？我们曾经被外人剥削过,难道现在还要被自己人压迫一轮吗？” „Who oppressed you? Did you say listen?” “谁压迫你了？你说出来听听？” „Isn't my boss oppressing me?” “我的老板不是在压迫我？” „...... Your boss is a capitalist, they are just traveler in a historical development, after waiting for the Golden Crow to ascend the sky, they are the first group of overthrown objects!” “......你的老板是资本家,他们只不过是时代发展中的一个过客,等金乌上天之后,他们就是第一批被打倒的对象！” „Are you changing the concept, what relations the Golden Crow ascend the sky with my boss have?” “你是在偷换概念,金乌上天跟我老板有什么关系？” „Is your own cognitive logic is imperfect, you do not understand the resources right to control and productive forces contradictory relations, you in this me told that what changes the concept?” “是你自己的认知逻辑不完善,你都不懂资源支配权和生产力矛盾的关系,你在这跟我说什么偷换概念？” „Yes, is I do not have the logic, how that chatted the point to have the logic, did this project have the risk? Carried out such project to conform to our present level of production?” “是,是我没有逻辑,那怎么聊点有逻辑的,这个项目是不是有危险性？搞这样的项目就符合我们现在的生产力水平了？” „You must say, the ugly country did the aircraft carrier, does b2 the time initially, conformed to their level of production? The essence of productive forces from the resources, the resources is hits!” “你要这么说,丑国当初搞航母、搞b2的时候,就符合他们的生产力水平了？生产力的本质是从资源来的,资源是打出来的！” „Hehe, cannot think that you are also this warlike elements.” “呵呵,想不到你也是这样的好战分子。” „Am I militant? A while ago others carrier squadron resentment to our faces on, if were not the military powerful, you think that you can also quarrel with me in this calmly and steadily?” “我好战？前段时间人家的航母编队都怼到我们的脸上了,如果不是军事实力强大了,你以为你还能安安稳稳地在这跟我吵架？” „Am I quarrelling with you? I want to change your cognition, why when comes across the issue do you want to hide to work as the ostrich? Why aren't you willing for your compatriot voice? Didn't you care? Today you do not voice, later some people will not voice for you!” “我是在跟你吵架？我只是想改变你的认知而已,为什么在遇到问题的时候你要躲起来当鸵鸟？为什么你就是不愿意为自己的同胞发声？你就一点都不关心？今天你不发声,以后也不会有人为你发声！” Sees these words, Luo Xiaoming thought that the whole body hair was almost air/Qi to set upright, he deeply inspires, selects the voice, said every single word or phrase: 看到这句话,罗晓明觉得浑身的毛发几乎都气得竖了起来,他深深吸了一口气,点开语音,一字一句地说道: „You did not match with me speak such words.” “你不配跟我说这样的话。” „I on foot more than ten li (0.5 km) in 100,000 mountains, to draw an electric wire to the remote inhabitant ; The thin rice gruel that I eat with the child of grazing sheep together has dug the wild herbs that make, has eaten accurate poverty relief the first nest egg of under hen ; I have dug the well personally, has cultivated the unsurfaced road personally, slides the slippery rope, to ascend you personally in the tall ladder that in the short video can see ; I have endured hardship, have suffered hardship, have accepted donation of rich person, has shaken the hand of poor person, you?” “我在十万大山里徒步十几里,就为了给偏远住户拉一条电线;我跟放羊的小孩一起吃过挖出来的野菜煮的稀粥,也吃过精准扶贫的母鸡下的第一窝蛋;我亲手挖过水井,亲手修过土路,亲自滑过滑索、登过你在短视频里才能看到的天梯;我吃过苦,受过罪,接受过富人的捐助,也握过穷人的手,你呢？” „You are blowing the cold wind in the air-conditioned room, is eating the cold drink, complained the tea with milk to rise in prices, complained that the clothes were too few, shut out to take taxi too expensively!” “你在空调房里吹着冷风,吃着冷饮,抱怨奶茶涨价,抱怨衣服太少,嫌弃打车太贵！” „Yes, I can understand that you are since childhood grows in the city, the spoiled child, but I am incomprehensible, why you after having the rhythm, can deny the efforts of so many people light?” “是,我可以理解你是个从小在城里长大的、被惯坏的小孩,但是我不能理解,你凭什么在被带了节奏之后,就能那么轻飘飘地否认那么多人的努力？” After saying, Luo Xiaoming sighed heavily, later extinguished the phone screen. 说完后,罗晓明沉重地叹了口气,随后熄灭了手机屏幕。 He is still not able to understand the issue that ordinary aircraft engine research and development progress how was brought to come up to such rhythm, has no way to understand like him, oneself this highly educated girlfriend, how will easily say these to make itself feel the absurd incomparable words. 他仍然无法理解一次普普通通的航空发动机研发进展的发布是怎么被带到这样的节奏上去的,就像他也没法理解,自己这个受过高等教育的女朋友,怎么会那么轻易地就说出那些让自己感觉到荒谬无比的话。 The fault/chasm of cognition, incomparably clearly presents in this moment in his at present. 认知的断层,在这一刻无比清晰地呈现在他的眼前。 However, he is incapable of changing all these. 但是,他无力去改变这一切。 On the cell phone does not have the new news reminder, after his hesitant moment, selected the scarf. 手机上没有新的消息提醒,他犹豫片刻后,点开了围脖。 He does not want to go to the line, but wants to have a look at the official to this not normal public opinion reacts obviously. 他并不想去对线,而是想去看看官方到底有没有对这种显然不正常的舆论做出反应。 However, in searches for in the list hotly, he actually saw four let his accidental/surprised information, behind of these information, labelled one completely „exploding” character. 然而,在热搜榜上,他却看到了四条让他意外的信息,这些信息的后面,全部都标注了一个“爆”字。 „South island fishery bureau disclosed: In order to prevent the cross-strait fishery joint agreement achieves, south island Executive Yuan ordered to stop the aquatic product purchase, this act causes hundreds of thousands of south island fishermen to lose the source of income. It is reported that the south island many unrests were previously related with this.” “南岛渔业署爆料:为阻止两岸渔业联合协议达成,南岛行政院下令停止水产收购,此举导致数十万南岛渔民失去收入来源。据悉,南岛此前多地骚乱均与此有关。” „South island ‚moral battle’ organization exposes, the project participants involve the highest decision-making strata.” “南岛‘心战’组织曝光,参与人员涉及最高决策层。” „Has the bottom grain campaign entire process: Attack and defense and offer, and pure feelings.” “起底粮食战役全过程:攻防、奉献、和赤子之心。” „Sun fighter aircraft security report issue, the chief engineer spoke: The Golden Crow security is reliable, and main flying area outside border.” “金乌战机安全性报告发布,总工程师发言:金乌安全性可靠,并且主要飞行空域在国境之外。” Looks at these four news, Luo Xiaoming's facial expression almost solidifies. 看着这四条消息,罗晓明的神情几乎凝固。 If the independence, these four news do not have the connection, but in light of the present situation, the news of these no connection actually composed one set of vicious incomparable cocktail of moves. 如果独立来看,这四条消息毫无关联,但结合现在的情况,这些毫无关联的消息却又组成了一套凶狠无比的组合拳。 You said that we don't pay attention to the people's livelihood? Hey, because your fishermen an administration made to be starving! 你说我们不关注人民生活？嘿,你们的渔民因为一条行政令都快饿死了！ You said that the public opinion rhythm does voice for the people? How to voice is your people? Moreover, your decision-making stratas are not thinking how to force-feed the fisherman, runs to pay attention to our airplane trends to do? 你说舆论节奏是为人民发声？怎么发声的都是你们的人啊？而且,你们的决策层不想着怎么去喂饱渔民,跑来关注我们的飞机动向干嘛？ You said that the money of Golden Crow project can be used to improve the average person to live, but in the grain campaign, our people are cross most moisten. 你说金乌项目的钱可以用来改善普通人生活,可粮食战役中,我们的人是过得最滋润的啊。 Also, you said that the security of Golden Crow leaves undecided, the secure report, could understand you to look here, cannot understand also without the relations, in any case we from the start would have no plan to fly internally! 还有,你说金乌的安全性存疑,安全性报告在这里了,看得懂你就看,看不懂也没关系,反正我们压根就没打算在国内飞啊！ These four news, each hit in „silent screw” in three cuns (2.5 cm). 这四条消息,每一条都打在了“沉默螺旋”的三寸上。 The person of layout does not have the plan to with the so-called counter- silent spiral strategy resist the public opinion from the start, they dug the ground of opposite party fundamentally. 布局的人压根就没打算要用所谓的反沉默螺旋策略来对抗舆论,他们是从根本上掘掉了对方的地基。 Debate? Debated. 辩论？辩个屁。 Upsets the table! 掀桌子！ How long Luo Xiaoming did not know this series of evidence already the layout, but associated to understand from each way to oneself a series of information that the related south island that captured, he was suddenly enlighted suddenly: 罗晓明不知道这一系列的证据到底已经布局了多久,但联想到自己从各个途径了解到的有关南岛攻略的一系列信息,他突然恍然大悟: Is this part that captures? Is this suppression of cultural shape? 这何尝不是攻略的一部分？这何尝不是一种文化形态的压制？ But is the behavior that side some people think oneself clever, after accelerating this to detain process. 只不过是那边一些人自作聪明的行为,加速了这个本来应该押后的过程罢了。 He suppresses to surge at heart mood, searched for the contact surface truncation with the cell phone fast hotly the chart, later issued the girlfriend with WeChat directly, and still added one in behind: 他压制住心里激荡不已的情绪,快速用手机给热搜界面截了图,随后直接用微信发给了女友,并且还在后面加了一句: „Wrong?” “错了吗？” After several minutes, Luo Xiaoming received the reply of girlfriend, his corners of the mouth some rise uncontrolled. 几分钟之后,罗晓明收到了女友的回复,他的嘴角有些不受控制地上扬起来。 The reply of opposite party only has two characters: 对方的回复只有两个字: „Was wrong.” “错了。” 7017 k 7017k Cell phone standing brand-new edition correction promotion address: https://, the data and bookmark and computer stand synchronization, does not have advertisement fresh reading! 手机站全新改版升级地址:https://,数据和书签与电脑站同步,无广告清新阅读！