Within a half hour, Chen Hao arrives at Ye Zhou's dwelling as promised, after sitting down, he first was burnt the blister to the kitchen the tea, after all were ready, carried the teacup to sit opposite of leaf boat. 半个小时之后,陈昊如约来到叶舟的住处,坐下之后,他先是自己到厨房烧了水泡了茶,一切准备就绪之后,才端着茶杯坐回了叶舟对面。 „How long your tea sent to you, how also without seeing you drank......, doesn't drink tea?” “你这茶给你送来都多久了,也没见你喝啊……咋了,不喝茶了？” leaf boat looked at tea leaves in his hand, shakes the head to reply: 叶舟看了一眼他手中的茶叶,摇摇头回答道: „, That package had not drunk up, cannot waste.” “不是啊,原来那包还没喝完,不能浪费。” „...... Good, you said that I also really have no way to refute. Did not gossip with you, this time matter, you want to listen to the report of brief version, wants to listen to the full page?” “.…..好吧,你这么说我还真没法反驳。不跟你说闲话了,这次的事情,你是想听简略版的报告,还是想听完整版的？” The leaf boat hesitant moment, replied: 叶舟犹豫片刻,回答道: „First said the brief version.” “先说简略版的吧。” Chen Hao carried the teacup to drink one, after tea moist lip, said: 陈昊端起茶杯浅浅饮了一口,用茶水润湿嘴唇后,开口说道: „Brief version on a few words: Modern society the story of simultaneous/uniform Wan thin raw white silk.” “简略版的就一句话:现代社会的齐纨鲁缟的故事。” Hears Chen Hao words, leaf boat understands immediately content that he refers. 听到陈昊的话,叶舟立刻明白了他所指的内容。 The so-called simultaneous/uniform Wanlu thin raw white silk, actually refers to Warring States period Guan Zhong extinguishing Lu's story. 所谓齐纨鲁缟,其实指的是战国时期管仲灭鲁的故事。 At that time Qi and Lu Guo each one produced the silk, but to weaken Lu Guo strength, Guan Zhong ordered Qi to use the clothes of simultaneous/uniform Wanwei lining manufacture before to receive up and down, only with the clothes that Lu Guo cotton material manufactured. 当时齐国和鲁国各自都生产丝绸,但为削弱鲁国实力,管仲下令齐国上下把以前用齐纨为面料制作的衣服都收起来,只用鲁国布料制作的衣服。 Such a government order, making perplexed Lu Guo see the vast business opportunity, Lu Guo businessmen started to purchase Lu Gao massively, some of Lu Guo common people also many people gives up planting crops, joined in the textile industry actively. 这样一道政令,让不明所以的鲁国看到了巨大商机,鲁国商贾们开始大量收购鲁缟,鲁国百姓也有很多人放弃种粮,积极加入纺织行业中。 In this year, Lu Guo grain yield sharp decline, then through the two countries border from Qi grain import, finally, Qi raised the grain price one year later wantonly, controlled the grain export, Lu Guo has to pay a lot of silver money to be used to purchase the grain, the domestic economy almost collapsed, was not the opponent in Qi. 这一年,鲁国粮食产量锐减,转而通过两国边境从齐国进口粮食,结果,齐国在一年后大肆提高粮食价格,控制粮食出口,鲁国不得不支付大量银钱用于购买粮食,国内经济几乎崩溃,再也不是齐国的对手。 However, the core of this strategy is „under-production”, but leaf boat from at present about the resistance of grain, has not seen so-called „under-production” the shadow. 但是,这个策略的核心是“减产”,而叶舟从目前关于粮食的对抗中,还没有看到所谓“减产”的影子。 After thinking moment, he opens the mouth to ask: 思索片刻后,他开口问道: „Ends the full page?” “完整版的呢？” „Ends the full page is: This is simultaneous/uniform Wan a thin raw white silk strategy of updated version.” “完整版的就是:这是一次升级版的齐纨鲁缟策略。” Chen Hao shoves open the teacup, places in front of a bulletin leaf boat, change while says: 陈昊推开茶杯,把一份简报放在叶舟面前,一边翻动一边开口说道: „In fact, told you like me from the beginning, this time grain price rose suddenly from the beginning is the false appearance, or one time was empty move that tried the hand.” “实际上,就像我一开始告诉你的一样,这次的粮食价格暴涨从一开始就是假象,或者说,是一次试手的虚招。” „They did not count on that uses a price impact on strike down us merely, because this is the resistance of national and country, under our huge grain reserves, even if they can cause certain grain rise, to form certain confusion in a short time, we can also quickly restore.” “他们并不指望仅仅利用一次价格冲击就击倒我们,因为这是国家和国家的对抗,在我们巨大的粮食储备之下,哪怕在短时间内他们能造成一定的粮食上涨、形成一定的混乱,我们也能很快恢复。” „From the confusion of this short time, the benefit that they can gain is limited ---- Only can be the victory in tactic, rather than strategically.” “从这种短时间的混乱中,他们能获取的利益是有限的----只能是战术上的胜利,而不是战略上。” „Two knights face probably, before entering life and death preying, two people must search the bottom mutually, such searching bottom might obtain the victory, to be possible not, but this will be unimportant.” “就好像两个侠客对垒,在进入生死搏杀之前,两人总要相互探底,这样的探底有可能会取得战果、有可能不会,但这并不重要。” „Truly important, was tries the hand to finish later real incurred.” “真正重要的,是试手结束之后的真招。” Chen Hao opens bulletin one page, points at the above content saying: 陈昊翻开简报的一页,指着上面的内容说道: „According to our current speculations, the strategy of opposite party altogether is divided into three parts.” “根据我们目前的推测,对方的策略总共分成三个部分。” „The first part, surpasses through the currency sends and turns on the water, does not count the price to push up the grain price, thus forces various countries' official release grain reserves, they again swallow these grain reserves through four big grain merchants and agents.” “第一部分,是通过货币超发和放水,不计代价地推高粮价,从而逼迫各国官方释放储备粮,他们再通过四大粮商及其代理人吃进这些储备粮。” „In this step, they will pay the great quantity capital cost, but doesn't matter, the blade happy credit had almost collapsed in any case, their goals are before presses out to do the old system thoroughly, again makes the last time unrestrained gambling.” “在这一步,他们将会付出巨量的资金成本,但没关系,反正刀乐的信用已经几乎崩溃了,他们的目标就是在彻底榨干旧体系之前,再做最后一次豪赌。” „Through such method, they can store up historically many grains, grasps most chips.” “通过这样的手段,他们可以囤积起历史上最多的粮食库存,掌握最多的筹码。” Listens to Chen Hao words, the leaf boat slight nod. 听完陈昊的话,叶舟微微点头。 Truly, at present this stage, they, although has felt the impact from enemy, which perspective but regardless of from, such impact deals with the difficulty not too to be big. 确实,在目前这个阶段,他们虽然已经感受到了来自敌人的冲击,但无论从哪个角度来说,这样的冲击应对难度都不算太大。 The pressure on public opinion basically disintegrates and stores up one time to put storage in addition to be small maliciously the packing sale to solve, the srbija crisis sufficiently, although posed certain threat, but generally speaking, solving is extremely also smooth. 舆论上的压力基本瓦解、恶意囤积一次放储外加小包装销售就足以解决、srbija的危机虽然造成了一定的威胁,但总体来看,解决得也极为顺畅。 This is a trial hand, both sides did not have to go all-out. 这就是一次试手,双方都还没有出尽全力。 ----- However, many countries, in this time tries in the hand, had almost been killed. -----不过,有许多国家,在这次试手中,就几乎已经被打死了。 The eldest child and second child fight, kills the third child, such matter was really common. 老大和老二打架,把老三打死,这样的事情实在是太常见了。 „Therefore at present they also in the first part of strategies conducts in the process ....... before the Yin food crisis solves, should they not enter to the next step plan in?” “所以目前他们还在第一部分策略的进行过程中…….在阴都的粮食危机解决之前,他们应该不会进入到下一步的计划中去？” leaf boat opens the mouth to ask. 叶舟开口问道。 „No, the Yin food crisis will not be solved.” “不,阴都的粮食危机不会得到解决。” „This is their second step: Through the grain assistance, achieves the control to other countries.” “这就是他们的第二步:通过粮食援助,达成对其他国家的控制。” „In this world, because their first step tries the hand to fall into national absolutely incessantly Yin one of the famine, even many established powerful nations, that side Northern Europe, have started to present the symptom of grain shortage particularly.” “这个世界上因为他们的第一步试手而陷入饥荒的国家绝对不止阴都一个,甚至许多老牌强国,尤其是北欧那边,都已经开始出现了粮荒的苗头。” „Lacking grain regarding these country, they can the aid of not parsimonious giving grain--- Still remembers? They in the first stage, just through pulling the price forced each country to put storage.” “对于这些缺粮的国家,他们会毫不吝啬的给出粮食的援助---还记得吗？他们在第一个阶段,刚刚通过拉高价格逼迫各个国家放储。” „However now, they must these grain through ‚aid’ the way, returns nurturing to parents these countries.” “而现在,他们要把这些粮食通过‘援助’的方式,反哺到这些国家。” „Naturally, aiding is impossible not to have the price, they must duplicate/restores carve, was last century to the crisp the experience of even/including and Mexico and Argentina.” “当然,援助不可能是没有代价的,他们要复刻的,是上世纪对酥连和墨西哥、阿根廷的经验。” „Then they , dumped and aid through massive grain exports, affected these two grain independent pattern, in was very after that long, is as for the present, Mexico was also under the ugly country's control.” “当时的他们,正是通过大量的粮食出口、倾销、援助,打破了这两者粮食独立的格局,在此后很久,乃至于现在,墨西哥都还处于丑国的控制之下。” „However actually, the function of grain is also not limited to this.” “而其实,粮食的作用还不止于此。” „They through the aid of such large-scale, will stand firm the blade happy international currency the position ---- All aid will provide in the blade happy form, then purchases the grain through blade Le to come from four big grain merchants.” “他们会通过这样超大规模的援助,重新稳住刀乐的国际货币的地位----所有援助都会以刀乐的形式发放,而后又通过刀乐来向四大粮商购买粮食。” „Arrived this step, they plans second step basically was completed.” “到这一步,他们计划的第二步就基本完成了。” „They will depend upon this strategy to pull up the widespread benefit-based alliance, after forming may be the cold war, biggest union group.” “他们会依靠这个策略拉起广泛的利益同盟,形成有可能是冷战之后最大的同盟集团。” „However the pressures of these union groups, will give us completely.” “而这些同盟集团的压力,会全部给到我们这边。” Said that this, Chen Hao carried has the slightly cool tea to drink one, then asked: 说完这一段,陈昊端起已经有些微凉的茶水喝了一口,然后问道: „This part can you understand? What issue has?” “这部分你能够理解吗？有什么问题吗？” leaf boat shakes the head, replied: 叶舟摇了摇头,回答道: „Issue does not have actually. However, you had not explained why the futures price will have such big difference from the spot price.” “问题倒是没有。不过,你还没有解释,为什么期货价格会跟现货价格出现这么大的差异。” Chen Hao puts down the cup, after cleaning water stain that on the desktop sprinkles carelessly gently continues saying: 陈昊放下杯子,轻轻擦拭掉桌面上不慎洒出的水渍后继续说道: „This involved the third part that they planned, was most core, grain production part.” “这就涉及到他们计划的第三部分了,也就是最核心的,粮食减产部分。” „You are clear, in the second part of strategies, they achieve the control to the benefit-based alliance that temporary, because from the current trend, grain internationally in the unceasing production increase, the patience of merchant is also always limited, food shortage crisis association/will in the past.” “你要明白,在第二部分策略中,他们所达成的对利益同盟的控制是暂时的,因为从目前的趋势来看,国际上的粮食总是在不断的增产,商人的耐心也是有限的,粮食短缺的危机总会过去。” „Therefore, they must try to find a solution, maintaining the grain ’ the present situation is broken stemming from ‚ danger is balanced.” “所以,他们必须要想一个办法,维持住粮食出于‘危险平衡’的现状中不被打破。” „This means that are the grain production.” “这个办法,就是粮食减产。” „But how to realize the grain production specifically?” “但具体怎么实现粮食减产呢？” „Two roads: Plan under-production and physical under-production. The physical under-production did not say that nothing but is the seed, virus and climate and so on thing, the former is quite relatively unreadable.” “两条路:计划减产、物理减产。物理减产就不说了,无非是种子、病毒、气候之类的东西,前者相对比较难以理解。” „The former through the futures market manufacture forward expectation, the anchor grain hedge price, consumes the forward grain demand ahead of time, will make the grain to the main grain production country soon the misconception of harvest, will thus make them plan to make the adjustment to the food production on own initiative.” “前者通过期货市场制造远期期望,锚定粮食对冲价格,提前消耗远期粮食需求,给主要产粮国制造粮食即将丰收的错觉,从而让他们主动对粮食生产计划做出调整。” „Very simple example, if a customer needs 10 tons grain in December, but he had locked the order of 10 tons grain at the present through the stock, then, when later December arrives truly, he will not disburse any fund to purchase the grain obviously again, then, under the market economy control, the forward demand will transmit to the supplies side like this finally.” “很简单的例子,如果一个客户在12月需要十吨粮食,而他在现在就已经通过期货锁定了十吨粮食的订单,那么,在之后12月真正到来的时候,他显然不会再支出任何资金去购买粮食,那么,市场经济控制下,这样的远期需求最终会传达到供给侧。” „Supplies the side according to the forward price adjustment productive plan of grain, the union current spot price will slight increase, but grain supply, in the ugly country emits the grain in storage under slowly the strategy gradually the stable condition, they will certainly make the decision of under-production.” “供给侧会根据粮食的远期价格调整生产计划,结合当前现货价格高企、但粮食供给在丑国缓慢放出存粮的策略下逐渐稳定的状况,他们一定会做出减产的决定。” „This is the essence of capital.” “这就是资本的本质。” „Through such operation, the condition in overall grain market will turn into this: In the spot market, the grain price rises dramatically, the exchange and official tendency in gain the grain to support the short crisis through the way of aid, but invests the fund into the forward quite inexpensive grain on, but, will similarly supply the side to start the under-production, thus the stability will be occupied by them to think that will have the grain price of falling suddenly after sudden rise..” “通过这样的操作,整体粮食市场的状况就会变成这样:现货市场上,粮食价格飙升,交易所和官方倾向于通过援助的方式获取粮食撑过短暂的危机,而把资金投入到远期较为廉价的粮食上,但同样的,供给侧会启动减产,从而稳定住他们认为将会在暴涨后发生暴跌的粮价。。” „But, in this futures market, who is the biggest grain seller? Is the true food production business? It is not.” “但是,这个期货市场上,最大的粮食卖方是谁？是真正的粮食生产商吗？不是。” „Therefore the answer is very obvious, their under-production movements, will not make the grain price stable in the healthy range, but will result in new round sudden rise.” “所以答案很明显,他们的减产动作,并不会让粮价稳定在健康范围内,而是会引发新一轮的暴涨。” „By that time, the ugly country of industrial production grain, and had Huaxia of farming red string cannot be broken through, became the final isolated island.” “到了那个时候,工业化生产粮食的丑国、和拥有不可突破的耕地红线的华夏,就成了最后的孤岛。” „However the ugly country has been sending the grain, the spearhead will aim at us immediately.” “而丑国一直在发粮,矛头立刻就会指向我们。” After saying these, Chen Hao long breathes a sigh of relief, finally summarized one: 说完这些后,陈昊长长舒了一口气,最后总结了一句: „Therefore, is truly far from starting to our encircling in the grain market. These movements of present, but is the upholstery.” “所以,真正在粮食市场上对我们的围剿还远远没有开始。现在的这些动作,不过是铺垫而已。” „Waits for Africa starved to death 1/10 population, to wait for Europe to start the confusion, to wait to make war and wait for the international seed company thoroughly to start Yin to control the seed patent massively the time with Batie, is they coerces this chaotic situation truly, begins to us.” “等非洲饿死十分之一的人口、等欧洲开始混乱、等阴都跟巴铁彻底开战、等国际种子公司开始大规模控制种子专利的时候,才是他们真正裹挟这种混乱的大势,向我们动手的时候。” leaf boat nods heavily, later opens the mouth to ask: 叶舟沉重地点了点头,随后开口问道: „Therefore, we can play the audience with them?” “所以,我们就必须跟他们打完全场吗？” On Chen Hao face reveals a smile, sees his expression, leaf boat awakens suddenly. Yes, the core of this strategy reduces production in the final analysis. 陈昊的脸上流露出一丝笑容,看到他的表情,叶舟猛然醒悟。是的,这个策略的核心说到底还是减产。 But if , won't reduce production? 可是,万一,不会减产呢？ If by some chance, even if in the main grain production country declines the food production plan in the situation, the international grain supply capacity doesn't reduce instead increases? 万一,哪怕在主要产粮国下调粮食生产计划的情况下,国际粮食供给量不减反增呢？ leaf boat recalled beforehand Chen Hao to the matter that he said. 叶舟回忆起了之前陈昊跟他说的事情。 If the gene edition output increase technology successfully applies, is going to promote, not only Huaxia. 如果基因编辑增产技术成功应用,那么将要推广的,不只是华夏。 But is Huaxia, hair bear, srbija, these three world main grain production countries. 而是华夏,毛熊,srbija,这三个世界主要产粮国。 The grain yields of these three countries, occupy over 30 of the whole world. 这三个国家的粮食产量,占整个世界的30以上。 Therefore, this is the key of collapsing. 所以,这才是破局的关键。 The promotion of productive forces, is the most essential strength. 生产力的提升,才是最本质的实力。 You reduce production 20, I increase production 40. 你减产20,我就增产40。 Regardless of your method plays how gaudily, so long as I can continuously the type the grain, all designs and plots, will fail. 无论你的手段玩得多么花里胡哨,但只要我能源源不断地种出粮食,一切的设计和阴谋,都会落空。