GCSAT :: Volume #4

#329: The dimensionality reduction attack of grain


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…… ,! „Does output increase technology give bear big?” “增产技术给熊大?” A leaf boat brow wrinkle, as if comprehended a deeper meaning from Chen Hao these words. 叶舟眉头一皱,似乎从陈昊这句话中领悟了更深一层的意思。 Just like he judged before, currently the grain supply in the world does not have the significant gap, the gap that artificially makes depends on the trader to store up either, either rushes to purchase by the stepping on type scared. 正如他之前判断的一样,当前世界上的粮食供给是不存在重大缺口的,人为制造出来的缺口要么靠交易商囤积,要么靠踩踏式恐慌抢购。 The former is easy to operate, but the funds are limited, the gap that can create is also limited, but the latter the operation difficulty is big, but once was fanned thoroughly, the effect of can creating is also extremely fearful. 前者容易操作,但资金量有限,所能造成的缺口也有限,而后者虽然操作难度大,可一旦被彻底扇动起来,所能造成的效果也是极为可怕的。 Therefore, truly the rabbit must solve is not only the issue that four big grain merchants store up goods, must properly deal with the panic that they can fan. 所以,兔子真正要解决的不仅仅是四大粮商囤货的问题,更要妥善应对他们可以扇动起来的恐慌。 The goal of Institute of Agricultural Sciences urgent project starting gene compiler technology is this, they do not need really to plant a lot of rice in this year through this technology, so long as can we be able to plant through powerful evidence upfront, was enough. 农科院紧急立项上马基因编辑技术的目的就在于此,他们不需要真的在今年内就通过这个技术种出大量的稻子、只要能通过有力证据正面“我们能种出来”,就足够了。 But still further, if the rabbit can plant incessantly? 而更进一步,如果不止兔子能种出来呢? If bear big can also plant? 如果熊大也能种出来? If all stands in rabbit here country can plant? 如果所有站在兔子这边的国家都能种出来呢? Then is very obvious, by that time, so-called famine the fear will turn into a joke. 那么很显然,到那个时候,所谓“饥荒”的恐惧将会变成一个笑话。 Thinks of here, leaf boat long breathes a sigh of relief. 想到这里,叶舟长长舒了一口气。 This rabbit sees, forever need compared with the actual situation goes a step further. 这只兔子所看到的,永远要比实际情况需要的更进一步。 Huaxia not only need resist, but must counter-attack. 华夏不仅仅是要抵抗,而是要反攻。 The opponent who they aim at is not only four big grain merchants,...... industry company. 他们所瞄准的对手不仅仅是四大粮商,还有……种业公司。 This is one step board game piece that bases on the global grain market, after this board game piece falls, will have killing one after another to incur to continue to begin. 这是一步立足于全球粮食市场的棋子,在这颗棋子落下之后,会有一个接一个的杀招继续落子。 After stopping the moment, he opens the mouth to ask: 停顿了片刻后,他开口问道: This should be the relatively strategy near the bottom, now? Now what we mainly in doing is what?” “这应该是相对靠后的策略了,现在呢?现在我们主要在做的是什么?” Now?” “现在?” Chen Hao thought slightly for several seconds, then replied: 陈昊略微思索了几秒,然后回答道: Stresses the smuggling, to grasp fabricates a rumor and prepares the emergency release resources.” “抓走私、抓造谣、准备应急投放资源。” „The emergency release of principal grains? ---- Can the grain capture the end market directly?” “主粮的应急投放?----中粮要直接夺取终端市场?” Yes. They must seize this opportunity, changes from the production model of source to cooking oil. You can guess correctly where probably this turning point comes?” “是的。他们要抓住这个机会,从源头对粮油的生产模式做出改变。你大概能猜到这个契机是从哪里来的吧?” leaf boat nods, 叶舟点点头, Sighed sigh with emotion. 感慨地叹了口气。 The modern market economy truly is a type of mysterious thing, seems like two things of no connection, in this moment, unexpectedly relation in one. 现代市场经济确实是种神奇的东西,看似毫无关联的两种东西,在这一刻,居然联系在了一起。 But the core node of this relation, is the polypropylene. 而这种联系的核心节点,就是聚丙烯。 ...... …… Taizhou, Shen Kai packing plant. 台州,申凯包装厂。 Plant manager Liu Yuan zheng is inspecting the factory district production line in a terrible fix, the facial expression on face not only anxious, but has a faint anticipation. 厂长刘源正焦头烂额地巡视着厂区生产线,脸上的神情既紧张、但又带着一种隐隐的期待。 He has enough two weeks of daily sleep time to be lower than 4 hours, but busy has not made him feel like this exhaustedly, the energy in within the body instead hit the chicken blood probably same continuously. 他已经有足足两周每天睡眠时间低于四个小时了,但这样的忙碌并没有让他感觉到疲惫,体内的精力反而像是打了鸡血一样源源不绝。 His factory just received a big list, the content of order is to make the food level sack, but order is, 100 million. 他的工厂刚刚接到了一笔大单,订单的内容是生产食品级包装袋,而订单的数量是,一亿个。 100 million is 40 cms, 30 cms in width, volume 25 rises food-packaging bags. 一亿个长40厘米,宽30厘米,容积25升的食品包装袋。 Several months ago, in this order just appeared in the market, the entire Taizhou several hundred plastic products manufacturers immediately then like smelling the shark of smell of blood same threw, his Shen Kai packing plant is also one of them. 在几个月前,在这个订单刚刚出现在市场上时,整个台州数百家塑料制品厂商立刻便如同闻到血腥味的鲨鱼一样扑了上去,他的申凯包装厂也是其中之一。 Compares other manufacturers in Taizhou this plastic kingdom, his factory, technically actually does not get the advantage in the scale, head but who his foresight must go far beyond other manufacturers, because he realized basic logic keenly. 相比起台州这个塑料王国中的其他厂商,他的工厂在规模上、技术上其实并不占优势,但他的远见要远远超过其他厂商的负责人,因为他敏锐地意识到了其中的基本逻辑。 What next order is China Grain Conglomerate, the use of sack is conducts the commercialized packing to all principal grains products, therefore, to obtain this order, he must guarantee only has two points: 下订单的是中粮集团,包装袋的用途是对所有主粮制品进行商品化包装,所以,要想取得这个订单,他所要保证的只有两个点: Safe, cheap. 安全,便宜。 In is safety, so long as in fact the raw material achieves the food rank, to make certain control in the technique of production again, must guarantee that safe is not difficult, therefore the core of competition is only the price. 在安全上,实际上只要原料达到食品级别、再在生产工艺上做一定的控制,要保证安全并不困难,所以竞争的核心只是价格。 However, must the extremely mature industry fight the price war in one with the peer, is not easy. 但是,要在一个已经极度成熟的行业跟同行打价格战,却并不容易。 In the bidding stage, many peers started out almost with the cost flush unit price, if according to this unit price produces, the factory is almost impossible to make money. 在竞价阶段,不少同行开出了几乎与成本齐平的单价,如果按照这个单价去生产,厂家几乎不可能赚到钱。 After the first round of bidding bid result was published, several hundred manufacturers withdrew from 90 instantaneously, they did not have the ability to further reduce the cost, therefore did not plan made such an ultra-large mass, almost the project that was doomed to lose money. 在第一轮竞价投标结果公布之后,数百家厂商瞬间退出了90,他们都没有能力进一步压低成本,所以也不打算去做这样一个超大体量的、几乎注定要亏损的项目。 But Liu Yuan has not withdrawn, because of him from public newspaper Daoli, saw an opportunity. 但刘源没有退出,因为他从公开的新闻报道里,看到了一个机会。 The domestic-made sulfur silicon cell is unfolding massively, the traditional energy market was attacked significantly, the international oil price falls suddenly. 国产硫硅电池正在大规模铺开,传统能源市场受到重大冲击,国际原油价格暴跌。 Although in a short time, with all parties' joint effort, the crude price rises again to the firm fixed price, but Liu Yuan knows, this price is absolutely false. 虽然在短时间内,在各方的共同努力之下,原油价格重新回升到稳定价格,但是刘源知道,这个价格绝对是假的。 The demand of petroleum, has really reduced. 石油的需求量,已经实实在在地降低了。 Therefore he infers rapidly, since crude oil in the situation of serious supply in excess of demand, but the price actually stability of international crude oil does not fall, then must fall, definitely was other crude oil related finished products. 于是他迅速推断出,既然原油处于严重供过于求的情况下、而国际原油的价格却稳定不跌,那么要跌的,肯定就是原油相关的其他制成品了。 The polypropylene, in the petroleum product most important, the essential raw material of plastic, its price must fall. 聚丙烯,石油制品中最重要的一项,塑料的关键原料,它的价格一定要跌。 Moreover, so long as starts to fall, falls certainly suddenly. 而且,只要开始下跌,就一定是暴跌。 Therefore, based on own cognition, Liu Yuan put out one to make everyone in the second round of competitive tender offer dumbfoundedly, cut in two at the waist in the first round of minimum offer directly. 所以,基于自己的这个认知,刘源在第二轮竞标中拿出了一个让所有人瞠目结舌的报价,直接在第一轮的最低报价上腰斩。 Everyone thinks that he was insane, but only he himself knows, this is a unrestrained gambling. 所有人都认为他疯了,但是只有他自己知道,这将会是一场豪赌。 If the sulfur silicon cell really seems like so strong, if the country that in the news said really can end the traditional fossil energy hegemony by the new energy, the decision that then he makes, will become classical campaign that will go down in the commercial history. 如果硫硅电池真的像新闻中所说的那么强、如果国家真的能凭借新能源终结传统的化石能源霸权,那么他所作出的这个决策,将会成为载入商业史册的经典战役。 But if the sulfur silicon cell and new energy defeated, oneself will also fall into the beyond redemption position. 但如果硫硅电池和新能源败了,那自己也将陷入万劫不复的境地。 ---- The result is obvious. ----结果显而易见。 In that he does not know completely what happened, in the extremely ordinary peace peaceful day, the price of polypropylene suddenly started slump. 在那个他完全不知道发生了什么事情的、极为普通和平澹的日子里,聚丙烯的价格突然开始了暴跌。 In the next week, the polypropylene price dropped to the record low, only before was to fall suddenly 15. 随后一周时间里,聚丙烯价格跌至历史最低点,仅为暴跌前的15。 The price that he starts out not only has not let him faced with the loss, even must gain ---- Gains greatly! 他所开出的价格不但没有让他面临亏损,甚至还有得赚----大赚! Therefore, perhaps his scale not too big factory, continued this to have the duty of decisive effect regarding the entire Huaxia food security logically, to complete this task, he offered 4 times of overtime wages to all the workers of working overtime directly, even the cafeteria also started for 24 hours to revolve, for only in the contract promise deadline went to complete the order, to attain that the quantity not poor ahead of time honoring an agreement bonus that was provided by grain. 于是,他这间规模并不算太大的工厂,就顺理成章地承接了这个对于整个华夏粮食安全来说也许会起决定性作用的任务,为了完成这个任务,他直接给所有加班的工人开出了四倍的加班工资,连食堂也开始24小时运转,只为了在合同约定期限前去完成订单、拿到那笔由中粮提供的、数量不菲的提前履约奖金。 Liu Yuan inspected in the production line, after the note takes down several efficiency comparison low key nodes, turns around to leave the production line to move toward the direction of cafeteria, prepares to eat him on this day in first food. 刘源在生产线上巡视了一圈,用笔记录下几个效率比较低的关键节点后,转身离开生产线走向食堂的方向,准备去吃他这一天内的第一顿饭。 In the cafeteria has the staff of many changing shifts to eat meal, he selected one table to sit down at will, because was the family management, therefore relations between he and staff were not too unfamiliar, saw him to come, the staff has not restricted, but greets after simply, then continued the original topic to chat. 食堂里已经有了不少换班的员工在吃饭,他随意挑了一桌坐下,因为是家族式管理,所以他跟员工之间的关系并不算太生疏,见到他过来,员工也没有拘束,只是简单地打了招呼之后,便继续着原来的话题聊了下去。 „......, therefore I said, the country this time definitely is attempts greatly, you think, 100 million sacks, each meets an attire 40 jin (0.5 kg) grain, how many tons that is? 20 million tons?” “……所以我说,国家这次肯定是所图巨大,你想想,一亿个包装袋,每个接装40斤粮食,那算起来是多少吨?两千万吨?” 2 million tons.” “两百万吨。” Right, 2 million tons. This is also only the first batch of orders, I heard, other factories also took the order, their quantities are also big, Boss, this news right?” “对,两百万吨。这还只是第一批订单,我听说,还有其他厂家也拿下了订单,他们的数量也不小,老板,这消息没错吧?” Liu Yuan nods, replied: 刘源点了点头,回答道: Yes right, Hongyuan and Xinxin also got the order, are not less than us.” “是没错,宏源和鑫鑫也拿到了订单,不比我们少。” This was right! Therefore the present situation is, the country must start to these grain compradors directly.” “这就对了!所以现在的情况是,国家要直接对那些粮食买办下手了。” What is this?” “这是什么意思?” Hears the words of worker, Liu Yuan somewhat has doubts asks. 听到工人的话,刘源有些疑惑地问道。 He did not know about grain, therefore has no way to relate temporarily so-called sack and comprador between has anything to relate. 他自己对粮食这块并不了解,所以暂时也没法联系起来所谓的“包装袋”和“买办”之间有什么联系。 The workers put down the chopsticks, coughed saying: 工人放下快子,咳嗽了一声说道: First we must solve a problem, what do our consumers buy the grain, and comprador buy the grain to distinguish?” “首先我们要解决一个问题,咱们消费者买粮食、和买办买粮有什么区别?” Is the difference of purchasing volume size?” “是购买量大小的区别?” Right! We buy the grain, bought dozens over a hundred jin (0.5 kg) to be even many one time, but comprador? One time they buy does not calculate with the jin (0.5 kg), but is tens of thousands of tons!” “没错!我们买粮,一次性买个几十上百斤就算多了,但是买办呢?他们一次性买的可不是用斤计算的,而是成千上万吨!” You looked recently the news knew, this country said that must put in 100 million tons principal grains, and now has also started to put, but does the grain in our market have becomes many? No? What is the reason?” “你们最近看新闻就知道了,这次国家说要投放一亿吨主粮,并且现在也已经开始投放了,但咱们市场上的粮食有变多吗?没有吧?原因是什么?” „Very simple, most grain were eaten by these compradors, after they eat, has not really put into the market, but stores up in own, waits for a better price!” “很简单,大部分的粮食都被这些买办吃掉了,他们吃下去以后并没有真的投入市场,而是囤积在自己手里,待价而沽!” Such result is very fearful, the country wants to put the grain bailout, instead must first satisfy the appetite of comprador, the efficiency of bailout will greatly reduce.” “这样的结果是很可怕的,国家想要放粮救市,反而先要满足买办的胃口,救市的效率会大大降低。” Therefore, the grain must take another road ---- Is we now the matter that handles.” “所以,中粮要走另外一条路----就是我们现在正在做的这件事情。” They must fit out the packet the grain that is going to put, then before China Grain Conglomerate some channels have put on the end market directly!” “他们要把所有将要投放的粮食装成小包,然后通过中粮集团之前已经有的渠道直接投放到终端市场!” Puts in the supermarket, the cooking oil store and in your family's downstairs sales store!” “投放到超市、粮油商店、你家楼下的小卖部里去!” In this case, the comprador was impossible to find the opportunity to store grains again ---- Only if they go to the supermarket to sweep the goods personally. If really has the comprador to do, decided their to disrupt the market crime also to have more than enough to spare.” “这种情况下,买办就不可能再找到机会屯粮----除非他们亲自去超市里扫货。如果真有买办这么干的话,定他们个扰乱市场罪也就绰绰有余了。” Therefore this wave, is the history reappears. In the past the soybean oil campaign, the country actually also used this, but, the scale compared with this time came to be much smaller.” “所以这波啊,是历史重现。当年豆油战役,国家其实也用了这一手,只不过,规模比起这次来就小得多了。” Listens to worker's explanation, Liu Yuan nods admiringly, the applause said: 听完工人的解释,刘源心悦诚服地点了点头,赞许地说道: Three people of lines must have my master, little what, you understands much.” “三人行必有我师,小何,你懂得不少啊。” Why not slightly to feel all right smiles, replied: 小何不好意思地笑了笑,回答道: Has happen to looked at some explanations, this is not anything the matter that is difficult to understand.” “正好看过一些解读而已,这也不算什么很难理解的事情。” You were modest, can think that this is very good. However I have an issue, such great quantity small packing grain, must put on the end market, isn't simple?” “你谦虚了,能想到这一步已经很不错了。不过我还有个问题,这么巨量的小包装粮食,要投放到终端市场上,不简单吧?” On little what face appeared a proud smile, then opened the mouth to reply: 小何的脸上浮现出了一丝骄傲的笑容,然后开口回答道: „It is not possibly easy to other country.” “对别的国家来说可能不容易。” But, we have the magnificence grain logistics , Huaxia postal service.” “但是,我们有华粮物流,还有,华夏邮政啊。”
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