EG :: Volume #19

#1862: Crude oil situation

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The weather was getting more and more cold, north many areas, had been covered by the white snow, but Capital City here, although has fluttered two snowflakes, but the wind blows, basically did not have. 天气越来越冷了,北方许多地区,已经被白雪覆盖,不过京城这儿虽然飘过两次雪花,但是风一吹,基本上就没了。 Feng Yu just under the airplane, the driver met him to the airport. That side Hong Kong finished, Feng Yu can go home to rest for several days. 冯宇刚刚下飞机,司机到机场来接他。香江那边忙完了,冯宇可以回家休息几天。 The crude oil future, Feng Yu has not needed to stare, the matter with is really same, crude price unceasing falling that he thinks. 原油期货,冯宇已经不需要一直盯着了,事情果然跟他想的一样,原油价格不断的下跌。 The financial crisis breaks out thoroughly, the price of crude oil future is also downward falls, these once thought stockmarket to fall, the person who the crude price can rebound, compensated miserably. 金融危机彻底爆发,原油期货的价格也是唰唰的往下跌,那些曾经认为股市下跌,原油价格就会反弹的人,一个个都赔惨了。 These high-power financial leverage invest the golden stock, the estimate tears could not cry, already drained off. 还有那些高倍杠杆投资黄金期货的,一个个估计眼泪都哭不出来了,早就流干了。 They cannot think that this time financial crisis affects so will be big, the entire financial industry falls on all fronts. The stock, stock, fund, currency is dropping sharply, the global staple market, is no exception. 他们根本想不到,这次的金融危机影响会这么大,整个金融行业全线下跌。股票、期货、基金、货币等都在大跌,全球主要市场,无一幸免。 Creates reason that the crude oil future falls suddenly, may not only be Feng Yu they made that European and American many big financial groups are involved. 造成原油期货暴跌的原因,可不仅仅是冯宇他们弄得,还有欧美许多大财团参与其中。 These big financial groups in this financial crisis , the loss is not small. Which financial group doesn't possibly have financial Corporation? 这些大财团在这次金融危机中,也损失不小。哪个财团旗下可能没有金融公司呢？ These big financial groups have lost money, how they will choose, naturally is the choice will lose to gain. 这些大财团赔钱了,他们会怎么选择,当然是选择将损失赚回来。 So long as they can join up, can the certain extent drill ~ vertical market, will then lose to gain through other products, for example can use the high-power financial leverage stock. 他们只要能够联合起来,就能一定程度上操~纵市场,然后将损失通过其他产品赚回来,比如可以使用高倍杠杆的期货。 When crude oil price breaks 100 US dollars, opec these member nations thought similarly, between 80 to 100 US dollars, this was their psychological prices, most served their benefits, can make the US, China and other crude oil import great nations satisfied. 当原油的价格跌破100美元的时候,opec那些成员国就觉得差不多了,80到100美元之间,这是他们的心理价位,最符合他们的利益,也能让米国、华夏等原油进口大国满意了。 But what makes them not think, the financial crisis attacks, the crude price starts to collapse. At this time the opec member nation may fluster, what's the matter, did the crude oil become such cheap? 但让他们没想到的是,金融危机来袭,原油价格开始狂跌。这时候opec成员国可就都慌了,怎么回事,原油怎么变得这么便宜了？ Their many countries are also owing many foreign loans, sells the oil to repay a debt urgently needed, otherwise the interest rolls, that must mine many crude oil. 他们许多国家还欠着不少外债呢,急需卖油还债,否则利息滚动起来,那又要多开采不少原油了。 The crude price fell, the original 1 million barrels can pay off the debt, now made that 2 million barrels were soon good. Does not have the means that to repay a debt, that mines. 原油价格下跌了,原先1000000桶就能还清债务,现在弄得快要2000000桶才行了。没办法,为了还债,那就多开采吧。 This has formed a vicious circle, the output is high, the supply in excess of demand, according to the market discipline, the crude price itself will fall. 这样就形成了一个恶性循环,产量高,供大于求,根据市场规律,原油价格本身就会下跌。 The crude price falls, they must increase production, the production increase must make the price to fall, such fell into an endless loop. Only if they can pay off the debt, the plan that then can through restricting production, pulls back the crude oil price. 原油价格下跌,他们就要增产,增产就要导致价格下跌,就这么陷入了一个死循环。除非他们能够还清债务,然后才能通过限产的方案,将原油的价格拉回来。 Do not think that these opec member nations are really rich, except Iraqi and Iranian such war ~ chaotic country, even if country like Saudi Arabia, is owing many foreign loans. 不要以为那些opec成员国就真的都非常富有,除去伊拉克、伊朗这样的战~乱国家,哪怕是像阿联酋这样的国家,也欠着许多外债呢。 In ~ east, many people do not understand the economy, their these years are mainly join up to sell the petroleum, sell natural gas anything's making money, occasionally also sell some products of chemical industry. 在中~东这边,许多人根本就不太懂经济,他们这些年主要就是联合起来卖石油,卖天然气什么的赚钱,偶尔还卖一些化工产品。 When crude price is good, full that they can gain, thus also becomes has keen eyesight in Ding. To various domestic populace commitments, even to complete the commitment, does not hesitate to offer loans. 而在原油价格不错的时候,他们一个个能够赚的盆满钵满,从而一个个也变得眼高于顶。给国内民众各种承诺,甚至为了完成承诺,不惜举债。 For example must prosper domestic tourism, then must construct some world-class hotels. Definitely insufficient, must construct. Three five do not consider too little, ten eight do not dislike much, does not have money the loan to construct. 比如说要繁荣国内的旅游业,那么就要建造一些世界级的酒店。一座肯定不够,要多建。三座五座不嫌少,十座八座不嫌多,没钱就去贷款来建造。 First did not say the tourism is in itself the long-line investment, can recoup the cost without any traveling in the short time and achieves the profit, the tourist is not silly x. 先不说旅游业本身就属于长线投资,没有任何旅游是能在短时间收回成本并做到盈利的,游客不是傻x。 Then travels must construct the luxurious hotel? Others are mainly play, the sand beach and are the sea water even desert the scenic spot, the hotel are scenic spots? 然后旅游就一定要建造奢华的酒店吗？别人主要是来游玩的,沙滩、海水甚至沙漠都是景点,酒店算是景点吗？ They noticed that any Las Vegas and other jal cities stood in great numbers, earned a lot of money, must imitate, not only the five-star, was above the five-star. 他们看到什么拉斯维加斯等许多城市酒店林立,赚取了很多钱,就也要模仿,而且不只是五星级,很多都是五星级以上。 But Las Vegas and other urban that are gambling ~ city, that side many people velveted, naturally must enjoy wantonly, will spend not to love dearly. 可是拉斯维加斯等城市那是赌~城啊,那边许多人赢了钱,自然就要大肆享受一番,花钱不会心疼。 However travels the ordinary tourist who to be also many to Saudi Arabian here, which their gives up? Which rich man will think that hotel compared with family|home in good, comes out to travel, does not look at the scenery, but is staying to the hotel? 但是到阿联酋这儿来旅游的普通游客也不少,他们哪儿舍得？哪个有钱人会觉得酒店比家里好,出来旅游,不是看风景,而是到酒店呆着？ Moreover before Saudi Arabia, has not undergone the special propaganda, where so many tourists? The hotel house vacancy rate is higher, then they must raise the lodging price of hotel to make up for the loss, finally this is the vicious circle. 而且阿联酋之前也没有经过特别的宣传,哪儿会有那么多的游客？酒店房屋空置率越高,那么他们就要提高酒店的住宿价格来弥补损失,结果这又是恶性循环。 Is your hotel price so why expensive? An ordinary anteroom, could catch up with others President sets of. 凭什么你的酒店价格这么贵？一个普通套房,都赶得上人家的总统套了。 Saudi Arabia and other countries must study the Saudi Arabia, wants the enlarging city, must vigorously invest the capital construction, but these do not make money. 还有阿联酋等还要学习人家沙特,要弄大型城市,要大力投资基建,可这些都是不赚钱的啊。 Must invest the capital construction, this to common people are the good deed, but cannot offer loans to do. The debt will be getting more and more, almost does not have the foreign exchange reserves country regarding Saudi Arabian this type, but was dangerous. 要投资基建,这对百姓来说是好事,但也不能举债来做啊。债务会越来越多,对于阿联酋这种几乎没有外汇储备的国家来说,可就危险了。 In order to avoid the debt cannot return, the Saudi Arabian first start increases production violently, then other member nations also start to follow suit, Feng Yu sees these times, grinning with ear to ear that smiles. 为了避免债务还不上,阿联酋第一个开始猛烈增产,然后其他成员国也开始效仿,冯宇看到这些的时候,笑的合不拢嘴。 In the family|home has Golden Mountain Silver Mountain, cannot shoulder two ruined family children. 家里有金山银山,也扛不住有两个败家孩子。 If between the opec member nations can true uniting as one, maintain like EU some economies and currency laws is even consistent, then opec absolutely is a formidable organization. 如果opec成员国之间能够真正的团结一致,像欧盟一样保持经济、货币甚至部分法律都一致,那么opec绝对是一个强大的组织。 What what a pity is, this organization was too loose, but also has the country to get out and get in unceasingly, definitely is unable to form a share dividend. 可惜的是,这个组织太松散了,还不断有国家出出进进,完全无法形成一股力。 The crude oil falls, they do not know to seek the reason, looks for the solution, but production increase constantly, isn't this is digging a pit to oneself? 原油下跌,他们不知道找原因,找解决办法,而是一味的增产,这不是自己给自己挖坑吗？ Every year sells that many crude oil, does not know that keeps some foreign exchange reserves, meets some people to hold ~ vertical crude price, they do not have including the strength of revolt unexpectedly, is really Failed. 每年卖那么多原油,就不知道留一些外汇储备,遇上有人操~纵原油价格,他们居然连反抗之力都没有,真是失败啊。 Saudi Arabia as Boss , does not have take action, perhaps this is also one strategy of Saudi Arabia. 沙特作为老大,却并没有出手,或许这也是沙特的一种策略。 Other countries are not refuse to accept, met the crisis, my Saudi Arabia can relaxed very pass, our foreign exchange reserves were enough . Moreover the place that our country needs to spend now were not many, this construction constructed. 其他国家不是不服么,遇上危机了,我沙特能够轻松挺过去,我们外汇储备足够啊,而且我们国家现在需要花钱的地方不多了,该建设的都建设完了。 Later has a look at anyone of you also to sing an opposing tune with me, I said that restricts production should restrict production, I said that the production increase can increase production, you such optional chaotic ~ does, suffering a loss you! 以后看看你们谁还跟我唱反调,我说限产就应该限产,我说增产才能增产,你们这么随意的乱~搞,吃亏的还是你们！ No matter in any case these guessed whether real, but the crude price continues to fall, and broke 60 US dollars line, this makes many people surprised extremely. 反正不管这些猜测是否是真的,但是原油价格持续下跌,并且已经跌破60美元线了,这让许多人都惊讶万分。 60 US dollars this reference line is the safe price that many people think, but they cannot think, 60 US dollars line very relaxed broke, then continues downward. 60美元这个基准线是很多人认为的保险价位,但是他们怎么也想不到,60美元线很轻松的就跌破了,然后继续一路向下。 This crude oil can also fall to last century such, has several US dollars one barrel? 难道这个原油还能跌到上世纪那样,只有十几美元一桶吗？ This is certainly impossible, because Feng Yu they started the gradual finalizing contract, but these big financial groups of Europe and America, is the finalizing contract slowly, started to harvest the profit. 这个当然不可能,因为冯宇他们已经开始逐步的交割合约,而那些欧美的大财团,也是慢慢的交割合约,开始收获利润了。 This crude oil future compared with fierce of last fluctuation, Feng Yu even suspected that the crude price may fall to 30 US dollars. 只是这一世原油期货比上一世波动的更加剧烈,冯宇甚至怀疑,原油价格有可能跌到30美元。 Is counted the inflation the words, that was lower than last century several US dollars! 算上通货膨胀的话,那可是比上世纪的十几美元更低啊！ It seems like this time, the profit can the imagination was higher. 看来这一次,利润能比想像的更高了。 ...... ……
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