EG :: Volume #18

#1707: Who pays

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Actually above the present has also discovered that said that China makes the great nation, this radically is not the commendatory term. 其实现在上头也发现了,说华夏是制造大国,这根本并不是什么褒义词。 What if you do is the precision manufacturing of high added value, then the profit is high, such manufacture great nation like Germany, the US, Japan wait / etc., will become the developed country. 如果你做的是高附加值的精密制造,那么利润非常高,这样的制造大国就像德国、米国、岛国等等,会成为发达国家。 China, so-called manufacture great nation, many closes right up against the inexpensive labor force, becomes the industrial workshop of the world, this is an export-orient economy. 华夏呢,所谓的制造大国,多是靠着廉价的劳动力,成为世界工厂,这是一种外向型经济。 Simply speaking, the China foreign trade, takes the foreign exchange earned via export as the essential target. 简单来说,华夏的对外贸易,就是以出口创汇为主要目标的。 This pattern, can raise the technology and efficiency fast, the heightening international competitiveness, but also has very big risk, that is the excessive dependent international market. 这种模式,可以快速的提高技术和效率,增强国际竞争力,但是同时也有很大的风险,那就是过度的依赖国际市场。 Once the international market changes, will have the serious influence to this economic development model, even is the attack. The price of this economic development, pays is very big. 国际市场一旦变化,就会对这种经济发展模式造成严重的影响,甚至是打击。这种经济发展,所付出的代价是很大的。 The developed country, is the domestic demand economy, they pursue the high consumption, high wages and high investment. 发达国家呢,都是内需型经济,他们奉行高消费,高工资和高投资。 Bringing in foreign exchange income of China, truly also earns many foreign exchange, then? Part is used to make the foreign exchange reserves, another part is mainly the purchase overseas bond. 华夏的创汇,确实也赚回来不少的外汇,然后呢？一部分用来做外汇储备,另外一部分则主要就是购买国外的债券。 The bond that the foreign country issues, to promote own expense, in other words, you have purchased others bond, is equal to wasting money to others uses, helping others live the life of spending freely. 外国发行的债券,都是为了促进自己的消费,也就是说,你购买了人家的债券,就是相当于送钱给别人用,让别人过着挥霍的生活。 The bond can make how much money, can make you maintain the value. However others take your money to be used to stimulate the domestic demand economy, early gained were more. 债券才能赚多少钱,也就是能让你保值罢了。但是人家拿着你的钱用来刺激内需经济,早已经赚的更多了。 China cannot close right up against the inexpensive labor force achievement to compete method/trick, cannot take disrupting the environment as to develop method/trick, such development is not perfect. 华夏不能靠着廉价的劳动力作为竞争手段,不能以破坏环境为发展手段,这样的发展是非常不健全的。 Has the world many foreign exchange reserves like China, like this seemed like strengthened the anti- risk ability of country, but similarly the huge faults, that was easily by the foreign exchange, particularly US dollar institute kidnapped. 就像华夏拥有全世界最多的外汇储备,这样看似增强了国家的抗风险能力,但是同样有一个巨大的坏处,那就是容易被外汇,尤其是美元所绑架。 Undersells US dollar, then the money market will be affected, will affect China stockmarket, affects the RMB exchange rate. Then the result is you can only buy the foreign exchange, is unsellable, was equal helps the US stabilize US dollar to you exchange rate. 抛售美元,那么金融市场就会受到影响,会影响华夏的股市,影响RMB的汇率。那么结果就是你只能买外汇,却不能卖,相当于你帮着米国稳定美元的汇率了。 The economy of US and Britain is powerful, the money market is prosperous, has very big relations with their currencies in the status of world. However this status, is not irrevocable. 米国、英国的经济强大,金融市场繁荣,跟他们的货币在世界的地位也有着很大的关系。但是这种地位,并不是一成不变的。 Like the past years, Soros did not have the person to attack a sterling rate, then has made the money. Also is that time, made US dollar substitute for the pound, became the foreign exchange market status first currency. 就像当年,索罗斯不也带人袭击了英镑汇率,然后赚了一大笔钱么。也是那一次,才让美元取代了英镑,成为外汇市场地位第一的货币。 Upper level China also noted this point actually, now they gradually reduce make these low added values the products, what like once clothing and leather shoes, truly internationally was very competitive, but along with a EU anti-dumping traffic ticket, didn't come under the major impact? 华夏上层其实也注意到了这一点,现在他们逐渐减少做这些低附加值的产品,就像曾经的服装、皮鞋什么的,确实在国际上很有竞争力,但是随着欧盟一个反倾销罚单,不就受到了重大影响么？ But China is also making the import substitution at this time, in other words develops the product related technology that these China have to import, so as to avoid receives the overseas restriction. 而华夏此时也正在做进口替代,也就是说发展那些华夏不得不进口的产品相关技术,免得受到国外的制约。 Like China is the world first system pen great nation, produces the pen bead such kid of ball pen, actually must from the overseas import. 就像华夏是世界第一的制笔大国,生产圆珠笔的笔珠这么一个小家伙,却必须从国外进口。 And what the technology is best is Japan, is Germany and Switzerland and other countries. It seems like not a valuable little thing, but after forming the quantity, is not the poor profit. 其中技术最好的是岛国,然后是德国和瑞士等。看似一个不值钱的小东西,但是形成数量之后,就是不菲的利润。 This has also directly reflected, China in some precise and advanced materials and other aspects, has very big disparity from the world advanced. 这也直接反映了,华夏在一些高精尖材料等方面,距离世界先进还是有着很大的差距。 Is China lacks some scientific research personnel? Of course not, China talented person, absolutely very sufficient. 是华夏缺少一些科研人才吗？当然不是,华夏的人才,绝对非常的充足。 However many talented people are handling the matters in other aspects, for example concentrates on the military technology wait / etc.. This right, military power is not certainly strong, forever could not become the powerful nation. 但是许多人才在做其他方面的事情,比如专注于军事技术等等。这个当然没错,军事实力不强,永远成为不了强国。 However the combination of military and civilian, does was too bad. Many technologies, can definitely use in the civil aspect directly, not only can enhance the livelihood of the people, and can create the profit, enabling many funds to be able the development innovation of support technology. 但是军民结合,做的太差了。许多技术,完全可以直接用在民用方面,既能提高民生,又能创造利润,让更多的资金可以支持技术的发展创新。 Is the export-orient economy good, is very good, but the export-orient economy depends on the favorable economic conditions of our country, if this superiority technical that were perfect, even if the fund is also good, but if only the inexpensive labor force, you said that also has something proud? 外向型经济好不好,很好,但是外向型经济依托本国的经济优势,这种优势要是技术那就完美了,哪怕是资金也好一点,但如果只是廉价的劳动力,你说还有什么可骄傲的？ The country developed, the people actually made are less, was this not quite right? Only the living condition of people was better, that is the appearance that the people anticipate. 国家发展起来了,人们挣得却没有更多,这就不太对了吧？只有人们的生活条件原来越好,那才是人们所期待的样子。 Since China has said that the development modes of other countries, can only be the references, cannot copy absolutely, this truth that is everyone understands. 华夏一直以来都说,其他国家的发展模式,只能是参考,绝对不能照搬,这个是谁都懂的道理。 Because the national condition of each country is different, no one is able to develop according to others' pattern. Like initial Thailand, developed according to others' pattern, then hidden danger big, result miserable? 因为各个国家的国情不同,谁也无法按照别人的模式来发展。就像当初的泰国,按照别人的模式来发展,然后隐患有多大,结果有多惨？ Even if no participation of Feng Yu, Soros takes the lead, same can make Thailand and other economies be attacked seriously, and implicates one string and its economical closely related country. 就算没有冯宇的参与,索罗斯带头,一样能让泰国等经济受到严重打击,并且牵连一串与其经济密切相关的国家。 China is worried about this situation occurrence, therefore increased the foreign exchange reserves, but cannot be too many. 华夏是担心这种情况发生,所以才增加了外汇储备,但不能太多啊。 Actually above has also discovered that the foreign exchange reserves are too many have very serious malpractice, improves domestic currency status internationally, is this time most correct means. 其实上头也发现了,外汇储备太多是有很严重弊端的,提高本国货币在国际上的地位,才是此时最正确的办法。 China has too the national debt of US, that quite in Jiang own economy carries on binding with the US, then the dollar devaluation, stimulates the RMB appreciation, will let the US debt shrinkage in China hand. 华夏拥有太多米国的国债,那就相当于将自己的经济与米国进行绑定,那么美元贬值,刺激RMB升值,就会让华夏手中的米国债务缩水。 For example the exchange rate from 1 : 8 turns into 1 : 7, then the US owed China 800 million Yuan RMB, now only needs 700 million Yuan RMB also to be good, this reduced the debt and financial deficit of US, was equal is the debt of US has paid to China, will also create the inflation of China. 比如汇率从1:8变成1:7,那么米国原本欠华夏800000000元RMB,现在只需要还700000000元RMB就行了,这就降低了米国的债务和财政赤字,相当于华夏为米国的债务所买单了,还会造成华夏的通货膨胀。 Thinks that what to do does not owe , to continue to purchase US dollar, the pull-up US dollar exchange rate, lets the China unceasing increase US dollar foreign exchange reserves. Then China will rise toward the product cost of foreign export, the competitive power will drop. 想不亏怎么办呢,继续购买美元,拉升美元的汇率,让华夏不断的增加美元的外汇储备。那么华夏往国外出口的产品成本就会上升,竞争力就会下降。 Mainly is because the US owed the China money to be too many, China were also too many in the foreign exchange investment in US. 主要就是因为米国欠华夏的钱太多了,华夏在米国的外汇投资也太多了。 The change of this exchange rate, will have the serious influence to the China property. You have a look at the Japanese Yen, the exchange rate is low, isn't the economy of Japan good? 这种汇率的变动,会对华夏的财产产生严重的影响。你看看日元,汇率非常低,难道说岛国的经济就不好吗？ The RMB appreciation, is a trend, at this time, must find the way to avoid losing as far as possible, making this trend slowly, tended reasonable on the line. RMB升值,已经是一种趋势,这个时候,就要尽量的想办法避免损失,让这个趋势变得缓慢一些,趋于合理就行了。 The currency must be consistent with the purchasing power, particularly must unify with the economy of our country, this is basic. 货币必须与购买力一致,尤其是要跟本国的经济相结合,这点是根本。 Naturally, many issue perhaps Feng Yu considerations is also quite one-sided, after all some upper-level political dynamics, he too did not understand that however the China trade surplus is too strong, a large amount of international hot money emerge China, this absolutely is not the good deed. 当然,许多问题或许冯宇考虑的也比较片面,毕竟一些上层的政治动态,他也不太了解,但是华夏的贸易顺差太强,大量的国际热钱涌入华夏,这绝对不是什么好事。 Especially this trade surplus, closes right up against the export subsidy to obtain. Many Company, are closes right up against this export subsidy to have the profit, such Company, can say that the development is good? 尤其是这个贸易顺差,很多是靠着出口补贴而得到的。许多企业,就是靠着这个出口补贴才能有利润,这样的企业,能说发展良好吗？ The exit / to speak of China, receives the international technological barrier limit to be very serious, are also getting more and more in view of the China anti- anti-dumping case, these will incur the massive losses to China. 华夏的出口,受到国际的技术壁垒限制十分严重,针对华夏的反倾销案也越来越多,这些都会给华夏带来大量的损失。 US this time economic crisis, wish makes China and other countries pay, then Feng Yu if wants the means that making the US pay for this idea! 米国这一次的经济危机,想要让华夏等国家来买单,那么冯宇就要想办法,让米国为这个想法来买单！ ...... ……
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