Sun Tao'sgrief and indignation, is flooding the entireconference room.
孙涛的悲愤,充斥着整个会议室。LiDonghas not spoken, the conference roomoncefell intoquietly.
李东迟迟没有说话,会议室一度陷入沉寂。
In a state ofdeadlockshortly, ShenQiansaidin a soft voice: „Sun, thismatterwe, orputs, now the urgent matteris......”
眼看着陷入僵局状态,沈茜轻声道:“孙总,这事我们要不放放,现在当务之急是……”„No!”
“不!”Sun Taointerruptedherwordsdirectly, lookstoLiDongdao: „Li, Iwantsto askyoura few words!”
孙涛直接打断了她的话,看向李东道:“李总,我想问您一句话!”LiDongopened the mouthfinally, the nodsaid: „Yousaid.”
李东终于开口了,点头道:“你说。”„Groupmoves toward the right track, canclean up our group of people?”
“集团走向正轨,是不是必须要清理我们这批人?”LiDongbrowwrinklesslightly, saidin a soft voice: „Sun, do not fan out from point to area. Thegroup of people in yourmouth, includingme, includingyou, includingmanypeople!”
李东眉头微微皱起,轻声道:“孙总,不要以点带面。你口中的这批人,包括我,包括你,包括很多人!”„Cleaned up, myLi was Dong who thiswordusedin your eyes, thisperson?”
“清理这个词用的过了,我李东在你眼中,难道就是这种人?”LiDongis speaking, stood saying: „Engages in introspection, myLi has Dongtreated unjustlyeveryoneseriously? Birdcompletelygoodbowconceals in yourmouth, isIwantsthis!”
李东说着话,站了起来道:“扪心自问,我李东当真亏待过大家嘛?你口中的飞鸟尽良弓藏,难道是我想要这样!”LiDongtakes upin the hand a documentto throwin the tablecentralsay/way: Don't allI who „ yousaidknow? How manyZhang Taotheymadeto contributefor the company, didn't Iknow in heart? Whymustmakethemleave job, is not only the companydevelops the need!
李东拿起手中一份文件扔在桌子中央道:“你说的一切难道我不知道?张涛他们为公司做了多少贡献,我难道心里没数?为什么要让他们离职,不仅仅是公司发展需要!Theysolelyare not the inspectiondo not pass, youknow that shortoneyear, because oftheirderelictions and mistakes, how manydoes bringto loseto the company?
他们不单单是考核不过关,你知道短短一年时间,因为他们的渎职和失误,给公司带来多少损失吗?Last yearexpiredmilkdid not say that inlast yearoneyear, " three without " products of sevenexpiredproductorprivateworkshopinfiltrated the shelf of distant place!
去年的过期牛奶就不说了,在去年一年时间,有七种过期产品或者私人作坊的三无产品混进了远方的货架!Irenovateda group ofpeople, let offa group ofpeople.
我整治了一批人,放过了一批人。Ithought that theywill receive the hand, will fulfill duty, isuseless, do youknow?
我觉得他们会收手了,会尽职了,可是没用,你知道吗?Youknow that thisdid have the tremendous impact on ourbrand?
你知道这给我们的品牌带来了多大影响吗?Youknow how many companydoes lose?
你知道公司损失多少吗?Over10 milliondirect economic losses, ifImustsay that the brand valuelosesonehundred million, youdid feelexaggeratingly?
超过一千万的直接经济损失,如果我要说品牌价值损失一个亿,你是不是觉得夸张了?Sun, the sentimentsometimesis notcomplete!
孙总,感情有时候不是全部!Ineedto consider is not only they, several tens of thousands ofdistantstaff, howyoumakemechoose!
我需要考虑的不仅仅是他们,还有数万名远方员工,你让我如何去抉择!Iyielded, according tomybeforehandcharacter, Ishouldsendthemto the prisonto be right, how do youalsowantto makemedraw back?
我让步了,按照我以前的性格,我该送他们进大牢才对,你还想让我怎么去退?YourmoodIunderstood, butI want to say that createstodayall these, solelyis notI, you.
你的心情我理解,但是我想说,造成今天这一切的,不单单是我,还有你。Yourtolerance, yoursentiment, makingthemfindtaking advantage, thiswas notyouwants, was notIwants...... ”
你的宽容,你的感情,让他们找到了依仗,这不是你想要的,也不是我想要的……”WhenLiDongsaid,Sun Taois dumb as a wooden chicken, for a very long timeis speechless.
等李东说完,孙涛呆若木鸡,久久无言。
Others do not dareto make noise, includingYuanChengdao.
其他人都不敢出声,包括袁成道。At this moment, the irrelevantpositionheight, Sun TaoandLiDongdid not talkwith the upper and lower layerstatusat this moment, butwas the friend.
此时此刻,无关身份地位高低,孙涛和李东这一刻也不是用上下级的身份去对话,而是朋友。Rises to challengestwo peopleto arrive at the presenthand in hand, experiencingtoomanywere too many.
披荆斩棘两人携手走到现在,经历了太多太多。Fromjointlyadvances together, towas suspicious of each other,to the conflict of interests, to the struggle of sentiment, amongthese tworelatesagainfinallyconstantlychanges.
从携手共进,到相互猜忌,再到利益之争,最后到感情之争,这两人之间关系不断变化。From the upper and lower layertoalso the masteralsofriend, to the upper and lower layer, thenevenwas ineach other situation of suspicionagain, all theseare changingunknowingly.
从上下级到亦师亦友,再到上下级,然后甚至到了彼此猜忌的地步,这一切都在不知不觉地改变着。Untiltoday, intwopeople of heartssufferingventedwith the angerentirely.
直到今天,两人心中的委屈和火气都通通发泄了出来。LiDongfeels itselfright, Sun Taofeltoneselfwere betrayed, allcausenot justsinglesbecause ofsimplehuman affairsissue.
李东觉得自己没错,孙涛觉得自己被背叛,一切的起因不单单只是因为简单的人事问题。And something have been hiddenbyeveryonein the heart, todayis just enlargedinfinitely.
其中有些东西一直被大家藏在心底,今天只不过被无限放大而已。Sun Taohas not spokenagain, sits downnot to say a wordscared.
孙涛没再说话,失魂落魄地坐下一言不发。LiDongalsono longeropened the mouth, sitsto continueto be distracted.
李东也不再开口,坐了下来继续走神。YuanChengdaopeoplelook at each other in blank dismay, after a while, YuanChengdaocoughslightly a sound said: „ Issueeveryone of human affairsdoes not needextremelyto worry, ifwhofeelsto have the issue, canaskmeto respond the situationat any time. Now the urgent mattersays the rumorissue.
袁成道众人面面相觑,过了一会,袁成道轻咳一声道:“人事的问题大家不用太过担心,如果谁觉得有问题,可以随时找我反应情况。现在当务之急还是说说外界谣言问题。A lie or story repeated often enough will begin to accepted as true, groupliveeveryonewere clear, althoughis somewhat difficult, mayabsolutelynot have the outside worldto sayis so exaggerating.
三人成虎,集团实况大家心里都清楚,虽然有些艰难,可绝对没有外界说的那么夸张。
The distantassetreaches as high as over 15 billion, is not in debtover6 billion.
远方资产高达150亿以上,负债不超过60亿。Moreoverfirsttwomonths, Dongyuopens, returned tofundsover10hundred million.
而且前两个月,东宇这边开盘,先后回款超过十个亿。Throwsthese10hundred million, ouris always in debtalso5 billion, relatively speaking, the situation in distant placeis very stable.
抛去这十个亿,我们的总负债也不过50亿,相对而言,远方的情况很稳定。Reason thatcreates the false appearance that weare soon unable to pay debts with their assets, on the one handisbecausesomepeopleadds fuel to the flames, on the one handisbecause the expansion of distant placeencroached the interests of somepeople.
之所以造成外界这种我们快要资不抵债的假象,一方面是因为有人在其中推波助澜,一方面是因为远方的扩张侵犯到了一些人的利益。Treatsthisbehavior, IandLimeaning, is the firmcounter-attack, does not compromise! ”
对待这种行为,我和李总的意思,是坚决反击到底,绝不妥协!”YuanChengdao said that frontwordstocomfortinternalwill of the people, behindsets the main keyto the followingwords.
袁成道说了一阵,前面的话是为了安抚内部人心,后面则是给接下来的话定下基调。Uncompromising, means that mustcounter-attack.
不妥协,也就意味着要反击。Howto counter-attack, is the followingmajor topic.
如何反击,便是接下来的主要议题。Hisvoicefalls, ShenQianaccess road/simply said: „ Counter-attackis the affirmation, the time that but the opposite partychooseshitoursoft ribexactly. At the end of Marchwemust the issue debentures, come outofficiallyat this timethisrumor, will definitely affecteveryone'ssenseto the distant place.
他话音落下,沈茜便道:“反击是肯定的,不过对方挑选的时间段恰好击中了我们的软肋。3月底我们就要正式发行债券,这时候出来这种谣言,肯定会影响大家对远方的感官。Oncedebenture issuefailure, wenot only need faced withreaching as high as3 billiondebt maturityissues, but must face the credibilityplummetingissue.
一旦债券发行失败,我们不但要面临高达30亿的债务到期问题,还要面临公信力骤降问题。Ifcannotput out the effectivecounter-attackmethod, affects is very definitely bigonus.
如果不能拿出有力的反击手段,对我们影响肯定很大。Debenture issuefailure, 3 billiondebt maturities, ifat that timedid not have the solution, perhaps the rumorwantedto becometrue. ”
债券发行失败,30亿债务到期,那时候如果没有解决方案,谣言恐怕就要成真了。”Hersaid,WuShengnansaidimmediately: „Actuallywantsto solvethisproblem is also simple, to the publicshowed that ourdistant placehad the abundantcash flowto be then OK!”
她这边说完,吴胜男马上道:“其实想解决这个问题也简单,向公众证明我们远方有充裕的现金流便可以了!”
Others looktoher, simplicity that thissaying said that how did the keyshow?
其他人纷纷看向她,这话说的简单,关键是怎么证明?
The distant placedoes not havemoneyis the fact, canchangedisburses money?
远方没钱是事实,难道还能变出钱来?Ifreallymusthave the abundantcash flow, thatalsoneedingissue debentures, understanding that everyonecanlook, othersdo not lookclearly.
如果真要有充裕的现金流,那也没必要发行债券了,大家能看的明白,难道别人就看不明白。ShenQiansaidgood of opposite partytimechoice, the meaningisthis.
沈茜之所以说对方时间挑选的好,意思就是这个。WuShengnansees the peopleto looktooneself, saidunhurriedly: „To show that wehave the abundantcash flow, is actually not troublesome. So long asachievedtwopointsenough.”
吴胜男见众人看向自己,不慌不忙道:“想证明我们有充裕的现金流,其实也不麻烦。只要做到两点就够了。”YuanChengdaosaid with a smilepale: „Did ChiefWusayto look, whichtwopointsachieves?”
袁成道淡笑道:“吴总说说看,做到哪两点?”
„ First, charitable foundationestablishmentfor sometime, thatprivatedonation that becauseLipledgedhad not arrived at the account, that side the fundalsohad no bigmovement.
“第一,慈善基金成立有段时间了,不过因为李总承诺的那笔私人捐赠一直没有到账,基金那边也没有什么大动作。Thesefive that ifLipledgesnowhundred millionarrive at the accountimmediately, and distantcharitable foundationmakes a bigmovement, candashfew people'squestionsurely. ”
如果现在李总承诺的这五个亿马上到账,并且远方慈善基金做出一番大动作,必定能打消一部分人的质疑。”
„ Second, spikes a rumour, not onlyweact, includingourcooperationgroups.
“第二,辟谣,不单单我们出面,包括我们的合作集团。Nowreason thateveryonequestioned that ourfundhas the problem , because weexpand the stepto be too quick, makingmanypeople still have ponders.
现在大家之所以质疑我们资金出现问题,是因为我们扩张步伐过快,让不少人心存犹虑。CooperatesaboutPengfeireal estateandSu Ning, everyoneknows that what's the matter, wecanrequest the both sidesroundto announceclears up suspicionsto the public.
关于鹏飞地产和苏宁合作,大家都知道怎么回事,我们可以要求双方发公告给公众释疑。PublicLiZongheSu Ningtobetting the agreement, fronts the joining of assetsto make the issueincludingSu Ning.
公开李总和苏宁的对赌协议,包括苏宁垫资合作问题。That sidePengfei is also the same, wecanrequestPengfeireal estateto announcesomeissuesappropriately, controls stock the price that includingusPengfeireal estatepays.
鹏飞那边也一样,我们可以适当要求鹏飞地产公布一些问题,包括我们控股鹏飞地产所付出的代价。Wepublicizesomebookkeepingsappropriately, thesethingsthencanbe easily solvedquickly.
紧接着我们自己适当公开部分账务,这些东西很快便能迎刃而解。After allso long aseveryoneknows that wehave not spentonPengfeiandSu Ning, thatdistant placedoes not have the financial problem, thiswas acceptedvery mucheasily. ”
毕竟大家只要知道我们在鹏飞和苏宁上面没花钱,那远方就不存在资金问题,这点很容易被人接受。”Peoplehearswordfrown, thismattersaidbut actuallysimple, somekeymatterssaiduselessly!
众人闻言都皱起了眉头,这事说的倒简单,关键有些事说说没用!YuanChengdaothinks saying: „ Wu, yousaidLi500 millionfromwhich? Nowdiverts the money of company? Suchbigresource flows, the person with high aspirationswill definitely check.
袁成道想了想道:“吴总,那你说李总的五亿从哪来?难道现在挪用公司的钱?这么大笔的资金流动,有心人肯定会查出来。Onceis known the charitable foundationdivertedweoriginally not manycash flows, thattroublesis bigger.
一旦被人知道慈善基金挪用了我们本来就不多的现金流,那麻烦更大。As for the secondpoint, oncepublicizedthesenews, thattroublesome is also very big.
至于第二点,一旦公开了这些讯息,那麻烦也很大。FirstLiwill definitely be advanced the keenest struggle, moreoverisThat sidePengfei, king does Zonghuiwant?
首先李总肯定会被推到风口浪尖,另外就是鹏飞那边,王总会愿意吗?Did not spend the one centto be controlled stockPengfeireal estatebyus, ifmadeothershavewhat not goodassociation, may createtoPengfeireal estategreatlytroublesome.
不花一分钱被我们控股了鹏飞地产,要是让别人产生了什么不好的联想,可能会对鹏飞地产造成大麻烦。Even ifthesepointssolved, still can only show that we funding chainhas not brokenat present, cannotexplainanything.
就算这几点都解决了,也只能证明我们目前资金链还没有断裂,并不能说明什么。After allThat sideSu Ning, otheraspectsexpandalsoneedmoney.
毕竟苏宁那边,还有其他方面扩张也还是需要钱。Actuallynoteveryone'sdiscussion that wecare about, butis the followingdebenture issue.
其实我们在意的并不是大家的议论,而是接下来的债券发行。Once the debenture issuefailure, the bookkeepingexpires, thatis the realtrouble, thisyoushouldplace the first placeto be right. ”
一旦债券发行失败,账务到期,那才是真正的麻烦,这点你们应该放在首位才对。”WuShengnanfrownsto sayslightly: „ ThisIknow certainly, butChiefYuansaid that does not needto care abouteveryone'sdiscussion, thisIdo not approveactually. A being unable to pay debts with their assetscompany, affectsmaynot onlybe the reputation, has much to do with ourown interests.
吴胜男微微蹙眉道:“这点我当然知道,不过袁总说不用在乎大家的议论,这点我倒是不认同。一家资不抵债的公司,影响的可不仅仅是名声,和我们的切身利益也有很大关系。
The after issue of distantfunding chainbreakcomes out, Dongyuseveralcommunitiessold in advancecame under very tremendousimpact.
远方资金链断裂的问题出来之后,东宇几个小区预售都受到了很大影响。Manypeoplewere questioning, the distant placeis capable ofcompleting the construction of community, canpresent the rottentail?
很多人都在质疑,远方有没有能力完成小区的建设,会不会出现烂尾?Before the customer that has paid moneyis also atnowwaits and sees the condition, once the rumorcontinuesto spread, flustered , might present the returning a housedisturbance.
包括之前已经付款的客户现在也处于观望状态,一旦谣言继续散布,人心惶惶之下,很可能会出现退房风波。Iftriggers the supermarketgoods supplydiscussion to lend, thatis the realtrouble.
要是由此引发超市供货商讨要货款,那才是真正的麻烦。
The Dongyureal estate and supermarket, the housing expense and payment for goodsaltogetherinvolve the amountto surpass over 3 billion, the debt that will not expireimmediatelyare few.
东宇地产和超市这边,房款和货款总共涉及金额超过30亿以上,甚至不比即将到期的债务少。
The issue debenturesfailure, actuallywe have the roadto draw back, onceprovokesotherindustrialchain-reactions, howwhen the time comeswedo draw back? ”
发行债券失败,其实我们还有路可退,一旦引起其他产业连锁反应,到时候我们怎么退?”
A WuShengmalesuchsaying, manypeopleapproved ofnod.
吴胜男这么一说,不少人都赞同地点头。YuanChengdaopondered over , the nodsaid: „Iwas actually one-sided, ouressences are the same, showed that ourfundsdo not have the issue.”
袁成道琢磨了一下,也点头道:“倒是我片面了,不过我们的本质还是一样,证明我们的资金没有问题。”Speaking ofthisYuanChengdaolookstoLiDongdao of keeping silent: „Li, orwefirstpostpone the bondto issue, moreoverI have an idea......”
说到这袁成道看向默不作声的李东道:“李总,要不我们先暂缓债券发布,另外我还有个想法……”LiDongdiansignaled by noddinghimto continue, the YuanChengdaohesitantmomentsaid: „ Wecanacceptsomefinancing, so long asthere is an outside capitalto arrive, in addition the bondstopsissuing,everyonewill not present the questionto the distantgroup.
李东点点头示意他继续说下去,袁成道犹豫片刻道:“我们可以接受部分融资,只要有外部资金到位,加上债券停止发布,大家就不会对远方集团出现质疑了。When the time comescharitable foundation, the debt problem that will soon expirecanbe solved.
到时候无论是慈善基金,还是即将到期的债务问题都能得到解决。Ifyouagreed,Icanarrange the person and finance organizationimmediatelycontact.
如果您同意,我可以马上安排人和融资机构接触。Favors the organization of distantgroupto be many, so long asat presentweraise500,000,000-600,000,000dollars, allissuescanbe easily solved. ”
看好远方集团的机构很多,目前我们只要融资500,000,000-600,000,000美金,所有的问题都能迎刃而解。”LiDonglooked athisoneeyes, lookstootherhumanity: „How did yousay?”
李东看了他一眼,又看向其他人道:“你们怎么说?”WuShengnansaid: „Ifeelfeasible.”
吴胜男接话道:“我觉得可行。”
Others have the approval, there is an opposition.
其他人有赞成的,也有反对的。Howeveron the whole, everyoneapproves.
不过大体上,大家还是赞成的。After allso long asacceptsfinancing, the distant placecollectsbillions is not difficult.
毕竟只要接受融资,远方筹集几十亿还是不难的。Billionsfundsto the account, whatissueare not the issues.
几十亿的资金到账,什么问题都不是问题。By that time, howwhatever the outside worldpropagandizes, howto fabricate a rumor, the distant placeimmovabilitythen, definitelydoes not needto pay attention toothers'view.
到那个时候,任凭外界怎么宣传,怎么造谣,远方不动如山即可,完全没必要理会别人的看法。As for the stock and management issue, everyonealsothought that LiDong was extremely calculating.
至于股份和管理问题,大家也觉得李东太过斤斤计较了。Give awaypart of stocks, allowing the newgiantto enter, todistantwhole, only then the advantagedoes not have the fault.
让出一部分股份,让新的巨头进入,对远方整体而言只有好处没有坏处。Furtherenhanced the competitiveness of distant placenot saying that but can also letdistantloosenfloodsome that currentlyis beset with problems.
进一步提升远方的竞争力不说,还能让目前捉襟见肘的远方松泛一些。This yeareveryone'spressure is quite big, was been mainly noisybymoney.
今年大家身上的压力都比较大,主要还是被钱闹的。Withoutmoneywantsto develop, howyoudo not makepossiblyto yield.
没钱又想发展,你不做出让步怎么可能。IfLiDongzaocompliesto acceptfinancing, does not absolutely needto toss aboutwhatbond, getting so far as the distant placeis now in a dilemma.
如果李东早答应接受融资,根本没必要去折腾什么债券,弄到现在远方进退两难。When the peopleexpress the opinion, LiDongknocked a tablegently.
等众人都发表完意见,李东轻轻敲了一下桌子。Bigconference roomquicklythenpeaceful.
偌大的会议室很快便安静了下来。Stopped the moment, LiDongopens the mouth saying: „In other words, ifcurrently the distant placehas the outside capitalto pour into, the issuecanbe solved?”
停顿了片刻,李东开口道:“也就是说,如果现在远方有外部资金注入,问题就能得到解决?”
The peoplenod.
众人都点了点头。LiDongalsosaid: „Is thatin your eyes, how manyfundslowest to solvethisproblem?”
李东又道:“那在你们眼中,最低多少资金能解决这个问题?”YuanChengdaosaid: „ 2 billionto4 billion, the loweststandardneed2 billionat least. Had2 billionto the account, in addition the cash flow of group, wecanrepaymostdebts, that side the remainingLonghuamoney, Liyoucandiscuss the matter of extensionwiththem.
袁成道接话道:“20亿到40亿之间,最低标准起码需要20亿。有了20亿到账,加上集团的现金流,我们可以偿还大部分债务,剩下龙华那边的钱,李总您可以和他们谈谈延期的事。Thesemoney, wait for the house of Dongyuto sellcompletely, wethencansettle account.
这些钱,等东宇的房子全部出售,我们便可以结清。Withoutthesedebts, the outsiderumoris ominous, vacillationourfoundations.
没了这些债务,外面传言再凶,也动摇不了我们的根基。
The expansions of otherplaces, wecan the slightlyslowslowfootsteps, not needto continueto distribute the bond. ”
其他地方的扩张,我们可以稍微缓一缓脚步,连债券都不用继续发行了。”„2 billion?”
“20亿?”LiDongponders the moment, thinks saying: „If2 billionto the account, the bonddo continueto distribute to be obstructed?”
李东沉思片刻,想了想道:“如果有20亿到账,债券继续发行会不会受到阻挠?”YuanChengdaoponders over the moment saying: „Thisdid not say, mustlook at the lingeringeffect.”
袁成道琢磨片刻道:“这个不好说,得看后续效果。”LiDongnods, then sets out saying: „Thismatterdefers todoes . Moreover the finance organization that youarrangedid not needto look, before the end of the month, Iwill raise over 2 billionfundsto pour into the distant place. To beatmebythesesmallmethods, somepeoplethinkwas extremely simple.”
李东点了点头,接着便起身道:“这事就按照你们安排的来做吧,另外融资机构就不用去找了,月底之前,我会筹集20亿以上的资金注入远方。想靠这些小手段击垮我,有些人想的太过简单了。”LiDonglaughs atone, thenhad/left the conference roomdirectly.
李东嗤笑一声,接着就直接出了会议室。
Others somewhatare suddenly dumbstruck, what do you mean?
其他人一时间都有些发懵,什么意思?Does not needto relate the finance organization, LiDong do raise over 2 billionfunds?
不用联系融资机构,李东自己筹集20亿以上的资金?Which does hetomakeso much money?
他到哪去弄这么多钱?Ifhereallyhas the skillto get so far asso much money, whybeforequicklyto be issuingwhatbond.
要是他真有本事弄到这么多钱,之前又何必着急忙慌地去发行什么债券。Moreover2 billionare not the smallnumbers, at this time the distant placewas in the keenest struggle, will somepeoplewant the turnoverto giveLiDong?
而且20亿不是小数目,这时候远方又处于风口浪尖,会有人愿意周转给李东吗?
No matter how theythink,LiDongrenwalked, wantsto ask that did not ask.
不管他们怎么想,李东人都走了,想问也问不了。Among the people, is probably calmonShenQian.
众人当中,大概也就沈茜还算镇定。LiDongin that sum of money of stock market, only thenshe who in the companyreallyknows.
李东在股市的那笔钱,公司中真正知道的也只有她一个人。Beforeshehas urgedLiDongto remove the city, nowlooked likeLiDong unable to support, thissum of moneyshouldto draw back.
之前她就一直劝李东撤市,现在看来李东撑不住了,这笔钱应该要退出来了。YuanChengdaosaidfinancingtime, sheknows that canbethisresult.
袁成道说融资的时候,她就知道会是这个结果。LiDongmakespeoplefeel the feartorigidsometimes of stock, wants the divisiondistant placefromhishand, the possibility should not be bigin the two years.
李东对股份的执着有些时候让人感到害怕,想从他手中分割远方,这两年可能性应该不大。
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