The Berlin royal palace, Frederick third only felt that presses strength mountain to be big. By the influence of war, after the economic crisis leads , the Prussia kingdom early fell into the great depression. 柏林王宫,腓特烈三世只感到压力山大。受战争的影响,经济危机爆发后,普鲁士王国早早的陷入了大萧条中。 The Berlin government can support now, that by throwing off the table, confiscated family's property to receive a fund. 柏林政府能够支撑到现在,那都是靠掀翻桌子,抄家获得了一笔资金。 Throwing off the table is also the price, although Frederick third took the bold measures, resumed the production promptly, but the financial revenue of government is greatly affected. 掀翻桌子也是代价的,尽管腓特烈三世采取了果断措施,及时恢复了生产,但政府的财政收入还是大受影响。 If, that also has nothing, some days have always been able to restore. 如果只是如此,那也没什么,过些日子总能够恢复的。 The room leaks met with continually the night rain, just assigned the factory, everyone is preparing to rub to get up the sleeve does, the engulfed the entire world economic crisis comes. 偏偏屋漏遭逢连夜雨,刚刚把工厂分配下去,大家正准备撸起袖子干的时候,席卷全球的经济危机来了。 A lot of products pile up, actually cannot sell. Attains the officers in factory, naturally must ask for the government to solve the problem. 大量的产品堆积如山,却又销售不出去。拿到工厂的官兵们,当然要找政府解决问题了。 Enough market, Frederick third could not have changed the market. The entire European overcapacity, the British Austria two big hooligans play dumping unscrupulously. 没有足够的市场,腓特烈三世也变不出市场来。全欧洲都产能过剩,英奥两个大流氓又肆无忌惮玩倾销。 Internationally does the present industry and commerce product price to lower compared with the production cost of Prussia enterprise. Not is only in the price the having no way ratio, in the quality the Prussia product falls far short. 搞得现在国际上工商业制品价格比普鲁士企业的生产成本都低。不仅是价格上没法比,质量上普鲁士的产品差得远。 The Berlin governments and British creditors have the agreement, theoretically they can pay off a debt in labor with the industry and commerce product, it is a pity that pricing power in Englander's hands. 柏林政府和英国债主有协议,理论上来说他们可以用工商业制品抵债的,遗憾的是定价权在英国人手中。 For example now, English's in wholesale price on reference international market hits a 30% discount, after the synthetical quality appraisal cuts payment again, is the final pricing. 比如说现在,英国人就参照国际市场上的批发价格打个七折,再综合质量评估扣款后,就是最终的定价。 According to English's pricing, the prices of most commodities, half of production cost. 按英国人的定价,大部分商品的价格,还不到生产成本的一半。 „Selling” is the blood owes, this loss was unable to make the producer undertake, otherwise the factory in nation has one to calculate one, must go bankrupt completely. “卖”是血亏,这笔损失还不能让生产者承担,要不然全国的工厂有一家算一家,全部都要破产。 This is the Berlin government cannot accept, now this helper factory owner is the cornerstone of Prussia kingdom. 这是柏林政府万万不能接受的,现在这帮工厂主都是普鲁士王国的基石。 Uses the economic interest buy with great difficulty, making the Junker aristocrat accept the disarmament, now immediately smashes their rice bowl, that was the dead government. 好不容易才用经济利益收买,令容克贵族接受了裁军,现在马上就砸了他们的饭碗,那是死政府的。 The European revolutionary tide is so turbulent, the Prussia kingdom can maintain the stability , because preserved the employment. 欧洲革命浪潮这么汹涌,普鲁士王国能够保持稳定,就是因为保住了就业。 The factory is the worker own, naturally does not have the unemployment. In order to comfort the will of the people, the Berlin government promised, the cost price revealed. 工厂都是工人自己的,自然不存在失业。为了安抚人心,柏林政府可是向大家保证,成本价兜底的。 When the economical running is normal, this commitment naturally does not have the issue. The enterprise must make money, no one will make one pile of unsalable products intentionally, loses looks for trouble to the government. 在经济运转正常的时候,这个承诺自然没有问题。企业是要赚钱的,没有谁会故意生产一堆滞销的产品,丢给政府找麻烦。 Now was different, the economic crisis breaks out, what the market is bad is in a complete mess, the enterprise cannot make money. 现在不一样了,经济危机爆发,市场糟糕的是一塌糊涂,企业根本就赚不到钱。 According to the agreement, everyone's product cannot sell now, the Berlin government has the duty , helping them process with the cost price. 按照约定,现在大家的产品卖不出去了,柏林政府就有义务,用成本价帮他们处理掉。 Prussia does not have the colony, wants to conduct commodity dumping, must compete with various European countries. 普鲁士没有殖民地,想要进行商品倾销,就必须要和欧洲各国竞争。 From the economical perspective, English's pricing is purely reasonable. The Prussia industry and commerce product truly does not have the competitiveness, can only play the price war. 单纯从经济角度上来看,英国人的定价是合理的。普鲁士的工商业制品确实没有竞争力,只能玩儿价格战。 Continental Europe do not count on, was affected by the economic crisis, most European People are very poor, only if just needed a kind of commodity, otherwise was very difficult to find the market. 欧洲大陆就不要指望了,受经济危机影响,大部分欧洲民众都很穷,除非是刚需类商品,要不然很难找到市场。 To many, this time just needed the commodity is the grain, very regrettable this contraption Prussia insufficiently eat, the exit|to speak does not exist. 对很多人来说,这个时候的刚需商品就是粮食,很遗憾这玩意儿普鲁士自己都不够吃,出口是不存在的。 These low-quality industry and commerce products, can only toward the dumping field. Without a doubt, Prussia does not have the ability that conducts global dumping, most overseas markets they cannot go. 这些质量不好的工商业制品,只能往海外倾销。毫无疑问,普鲁士不具备进行全球倾销的能力,大部分海外市场他们都进不去。 Has quite perfect commercial network, is capable of conducting dumping the world's most areas the country, altogether such several. 拥有较为完善的商业网络,有能力在全世界大部分地区进行倾销的国家,一共就那么几个。 Respectively is brave, Austria, western France, responsibility and Portugal, these six countries have a common trait- colonial empire. 分别是英、奥、法、西、荷、葡,这六个国家都有一个共同特点-殖民帝国。 And Spain, Holland and Portugal to decline, the commercial network , the colony did not have many, is incapable of digesting the Prussia industrial capacity. 其中西班牙、荷兰、葡萄牙均以没落,商业网络还在,殖民地却没有多少,无力消化普鲁士的工业产能。 The colony of France are many, the market is not big, the domestic capitalist insufficiently carves up, is naturally impossible to put the Prussia commodity to enter. 法兰西的殖民地不少,市场却不大,国内的资本家就不够瓜分,自然不可能放普鲁士商品进入。 The colony development that Austria benefits is good, the market improves relatively, what a pity Austria industry capacity is very huge, does not have the unnecessary market. 奥地利的殖民地开发不错,市场相对完善,可惜奥地利本身的工业产能就很庞大,没有多余的市场。 Even if puts the Prussia commodity to go, benefits the competition of commodity facing Austria, they cannot sell. 况且,就算是放普鲁士商品进去,面对奥地利商品的竞争,他们也卖不出去。 The colony of English are most, the market is relatively sufficient, the internal competition is not that intense, it can be said that only choice of Prussia. 英国人的殖民地最多,市场相对充足,内部竞争也不是那么激烈,可以说是普鲁士的唯一选择。 Under this background, the English naturally must keep prices down. Exits the industrial material to Prussia, accepts the Prussia industry and commerce product to pay off a debt in labor, seems like that the government is helping to the Berlin, is really Prussia is working for them white/in vain. 这种背景下,英国人自然要压价了。一面出口工业原材料给普鲁士,一面接受普鲁士的工商业制品抵债,看似在给柏林政府帮忙,实在是普鲁士在替他们白打工。 Not only works white/in vain, now the English goes a step further, must make the Prussia kingdom do business at a loss to work. 不仅仅只是白打工,现在英国人又更进一步,要让普鲁士王国赔本打工。 The Frederick third present mood is similar to: The good fortune good fortune beat severely one year of labor painstakingly, at the end of the year the doing accounts one cent has not gained, but also bankrupts the debt. 腓特烈三世现在的心情就如同:幸幸苦苦打了一年工,年底算账一分钱未赚,还倒欠一屁股债。 He is irrecusable, to be unemployed otherwise, home loan and credit card, ~ ~ presses together, that simply is...... 偏偏他还不能拒绝,要不然失了业,房贷、信用卡、~~呗一起压上来,那简直就是…… The day has always wanted, „blood owes” always compared with „complete wipe-out” good. Kept prices down also can only recognize, the Berlin government has to brace oneself to bear this loss. 日子总是要过的,“血亏”总比“血本无归”的好。被压价也只能认了,柏林政府不得不硬着头皮承担这笔损失。 Asking of Frederick third anticipation: „Situation how, the English agreed that the debt did postpone?” 腓特烈三世期待的问:“情况怎么样,英国人同意债务延期了么？” Without the means that the Prussia kingdom resources are deficient, must import the industrial material, Mark everyone does not recognize, this must consume the foreign exchange. 没有办法,普鲁士王国资源匮乏,必须要进口工业原材料,马克大家是不认的,这就必须要消耗外汇。 Redeems the agreement with the material object that the English achieves, did not mean that threw the commodity to the creditor was good, the Berlin government is not aggressive. 和英国人达成的实物抵偿协议,并不是说把商品丢给债主就行了,柏林政府还没有那么霸气。 The Prussia creditor mostly is the bank and financial institution, these people play the finance, has no interest in the international merchandise trade. 普鲁士的债主大都是银行、金融机构,这些人都是玩儿金融的,对国际商品贸易没兴趣。 The real situation was Prussia sold to the foreign exchange that the British capitalists received in exchange for the industry and commerce product, after deducting cost, the remaining money took away to repay a debt. 真实情况是普鲁士把工商业产品卖给英国资本家换取的外汇,在扣除成本后,剩下的钱都拿去还债。 „Agreement” the function is the British government also puts the Prussia commodity to come. Otherwise under the free trade system, the sales range of Prussia commodity is only restricted in Britain, does not need to want also to know, that basic on won't sell. “协议”的作用是英国政府同样放普鲁士商品进来。要不然在自由贸易体系下,普鲁士商品的销售范围仅限于英国本土,不用想也知道,那根本就卖不动。 Now encounters price plummet, the selling price of commodity, but also the cost of insufficient industrial material, made the business of doing business at a loss, the Berlin government naturally did not have „foreign exchange” to repay a debt. 现在遭遇价格暴跌,商品的销售价格,还不够工业原材料的成本,做了赔本的买卖,柏林政府自然没“外汇”还债了。 The foreign minister Fordemann's complexion sank all of a sudden: „ We have wanted completely the means that even also earned the support of London government, the final consultation failed. 外交大臣弗德曼的脸色一下子沉了下来:“我们已经想尽了办法,甚至还获得了伦敦政府的支持,最后协商还是失败了。 Effect of this economic crisis on Britain, us estimated that is bigger , the bank is also short of money now. 这次经济危机对英国的影响,比我们预想中还要大,银行现在也缺钱。 One of our creditors, Gallitre Bank because of the funding chain break, went bankrupt on the way of the negotiations. ” 我们的债主之一,加里特银行就因为资金链断裂,在谈判途中破产了。” The creditors are also short of money, this troubled in a big way. Especially Gallitre Bank type, oneself because the funding chain break goes bankrupt, is more impossible to agree that the debt postpones. 债主们也缺钱,这就麻烦大了。尤其是加里特银行这种,自己都因为资金链断裂破产,更加不可能同意债务延期。 Frederick third deep sighing, asked to the First Lord of the Treasury: „How many foreign exchange now we have, in the situation of normal payment debt, how long but can also support?” 腓特烈三世深深的叹了一口气,向财政大臣问道:“现在我们有多少外汇,在正常支付债务的情况下,还能够支撑多久？” First Lord of the Treasury Austria Viets is frowning to reply: „ Situation very bad, now the complete foreign exchange adds approximately the value 7.656 million pounds, including 3.54 million pounds, 5.68 million aegises and 8 million francs...... 财政大臣奥维茨皱着眉头回答道:“情况非常的糟糕,现在我们的全部外汇加起来大约价值765.6万英镑,包括354万英镑、568万神盾、800万法郎…… Theoretically, if not conduct other expenses, is only used to pay the debt, most can support for seven months. 理论上来说,如果不进行其它开销,只用来支付债务,最多能够支撑七个月时间。 In fact, this is not possible. We must import the industrial material, the mechanical device and agricultural product, to satisfy the domestic production and life to need. ” 实际上,这是不可能的。我们必须要进口工业原材料、机械设备、农产品,以满足国内的生产、生活所需。” The foreign exchange has to have, normal condition, by the exit|to speak of industry and commerce product, achieves the balanced revenues and expenditures. 外汇是有出有进,正常情况来说,凭借工商业产品的出口,还是做到收支平衡的。 After all, the industrial material and labor cost that the home produces, do not need to pay the foreign exchange, can solve the problem with the Mark. 毕竟,国内出产的工业原材料、人工成本,都不需要支付外汇,用马克就可以解决问题了。 7.656 million pounds equivalent to the gold are 56.04 tons, in this age is the great sum of money of deserving, exceeded the gold reserve total quantity of many country. 765.6万英镑折合黄金就是56.04吨,在这个年代已经是当之无愧的巨款,超过了不少国家的黄金储备总量。 Without the foreign loan needs to repay, to a small country, so many foreign exchange reserves, being enough easy life has crossed very much moistens. 如果没有外债需要偿还,对一个小国来说,这么多的外汇储备,已经足以小日子过得很滋润了。 What a pity does not have, if, the Prussia kingdom has the large amount of foreign loan to need to repay. This great sum of money, only enough pays seven months of debt merely. 可惜没有如果,普鲁士王国有巨额的外债需要偿还。这笔巨款,仅仅只够支付七个月的债务。 In fact could not have insisted that was so long, was fallen the influence by the export commodity price, now the Prussia kingdom had entered the trade deficit time. 实际上还坚持不了那么久,受出口商品价格下跌影响,现在普鲁士王国已经进入了贸易逆差时代。 Only if the creditors are willing to accept the Mark payment, otherwise the Berlin government is impossible to pay the debt on time. 除非债主们肯接受马克支付,要不然柏林政府根本就不可能按期支付债务。 ...... …… Received the requesting reinforcements telegram of Berlin government, the Franz first response is: Agitates Prussian to repudiate a debt. 收到了柏林政府的求援电报,弗朗茨第一反应就是:鼓动普鲁士人赖账。 This thought that seems fascinated the barrier, can hardly be removed again. 这个念头一出,就仿佛入了魔障,再也挥之不去。 „If the Berlin government repudiates a debt, what consequence will have?” “假如柏林政府赖账,会有什么后果？” The foreign minister Wessenberg complexion changes: „ Your majesty, the economy of Prussia had deep impact by the English, the Berlin government does not have the ability of default. 外交大臣韦森贝格脸色微变:“陛下,普鲁士的经济受英国人影响严重,柏林政府不具备债务违约的能力。 If the Berlin government debt violation, the English wants to their trade sanction, will unable to want a half year of Prussia to collapse. ” 如果柏林政府债务违约,英国人只要对他们贸易制裁,要不了半年普鲁士就会崩溃。” This is the fact, the royal navy coastline one, the Prussia kingdom will fall into the industrial material to be deficient, product lacks the embarrassed condition in market. 这是事实,皇家海军把海岸线一封,普鲁士王国就会陷入工业原材料匮乏、产品缺少市场的窘迫状态。 Naturally they can also take the land route, since the neighboring country circles, but this cost made any enterprise go bankrupt sufficiently. 当然他们还可以走陆路,从邻国绕过去,只不过这个成本足以令任何企业破产。 Prime Minister Felix refuted: „ Is uncertain! Perhaps the ordinary period English will do, to punish one as a warning to others. 费利克斯首相反驳道:“不一定吧！平常时期或许英国人会这么干,以杀鸡儆猴。 But is now different, the European revolutionary tide gets stronger and stronger. 可现在不一样,欧洲革命浪潮愈演愈烈。 French Revolutionary party occupied Paris, the situation in Prussia kingdom is also bad, has the eruption revolution possibility anytime. 法国革命党都占领了巴黎,普鲁士王国的情况也非常糟糕,随时都有爆发革命的可能。 So long as the English does not prepare to demand repayment from the revolutionary party hand, cannot make the Prussia kingdom be finished. 只要英国人不准备从革命党手中讨债,就不能让普鲁士王国完蛋。 Now the Berlin government really does not have the payment ability, the default is sooner or later matter, in the London government should have a mind to prepare. 现在柏林政府是真的没有偿还能力,债务违约是早晚的事情,伦敦政府应该也有心里准备。 So long as the Berlin government did not announce directly repudiates a debt, looked for a fair debt extension to give a pretext, the British government will not adopt the extreme method. 只要柏林政府不直接宣布赖账,找一个合情合理的债务延期借口,英国政府就不会采取极端手段。 Those who lend the Berlin government money is the bank, the financial institution and speculator, these interest groups' in Britain influences, although is big, has not actually arrived for the government policy decision situation. 借给柏林政府钱的是银行、金融机构、投机客,这些利益集团在英国的影响力虽大,却也没有到替政府决策地步。 British government not possible for their benefits, disregards the national strategy general situation. Without the support of government, these people cannot do to the Prussia kingdom. 英国政府不可能为了他们的利益,就置国家战略大局于不顾。没有政府的支持,这些人根本就奈何不了普鲁士王国。 If the European situation further deteriorates, then the Berlin government can also discuss the condition with the English, seeks to reduce some debts. ” 如果欧洲局势进一步恶化,那么柏林政府还可以和英国人谈条件,谋求减免部分债务。” Now after was not the second war, the aristocrat group is at the prosperous condition, the financial group wanted to control the government radically is dream of a fool. 现在还不是二战后,贵族集团正处于鼎盛状态,财团想要控制政府根本就是痴人说梦。 The French revolution is very scary, if makes the Prussia revolution successful again, then the European revolutionary tide could not control again. 法国革命就已经很吓人了,要是再让普鲁士革命成功,那么欧洲革命浪潮就再也控制不住了。 Although Britain hangs the overseas this solitary one, the revolutionary tide has not let off them. 不列颠虽然孤悬海外,革命浪潮还是没有放过他们。 UK and France output mutually, has continued many years, the revolution spread they unable to cultivate one's own moral worth. 英法两国互相输出,已经持续了很多年,革命蔓延下去他们也无法独善其身。 ...... …… On May 1 , 1882, the Prussia kingdom erupted the vast momentum counter- hungry movement, the innumerable people stepped onto the street request government to import more grain, solved the domestic grain shortage. 1882年5月1日,普鲁士王国爆发了声势浩大的反饥饿运动,无数民众走上街头要求政府进口更多的粮食,解决国内的粮荒。 After the counter- hungry movement erupts, the response of Berlin government is quick, rescues to the international community in the shortest time. 反饥饿运动爆发后,柏林政府的反应非常快,在最短的时间内向国际社会救助。 Simultaneously to repay the foreign loan to consume a lot of foreign exchange, without money purchase grain was the reason, had the request of postponement of payment debt to the creditors. 同时以偿还外债消耗了大量的外汇,没钱购买粮食为由,向债主们提出延期支付债务的请求。 Without a doubt, this like in „request”, instead is less like an notice. 毫无疑问,这不像在“请求”,反而更像是一份通知。 While having request, the Berlin government had suspended May's debt payment. 在提出请求的同时,柏林政府已经暂停了五月份的债务支付。 Announces to the public the debt redemption fund of May, is used to purchase the grain, to solve domestic grain shortage. 对外宣布是将五月份的偿债资金,用来购买粮食,以解决国内的粮荒。 The creditors in Prussia kingdom concentrate UK and France mostly, altogether holds the Berlin government 95.4 foreign loans. 普鲁士王国的债主大都集中英法两国,共持有柏林政府95.4的外债。 Handled UK , France these two big creditors, can say that handled the complete creditor, exactly said that handled the English on the line. 搞定了英法这两个大债主,就可以说搞定了全部债主,确切的说搞定英国人就行了。 The French now are very busy, the civil war had broken out, for a short time cannot attend to this goose bumps the minor matter. 法国人现在很忙,内战已经爆发了,一时半会儿顾不上这点儿鸡毛蒜皮的小事。 Did the Prussia kingdom really erupt the famine? 普鲁士王国真的爆发了饥荒么？ This must look how the English thought! 这就要看英国人怎么想了！ If the London government accepts this view, then the Prussia kingdom on „really” erupted the famine. 如果伦敦政府接受这个说法,那么普鲁士王国就“真的”爆发了饥荒。 If the London government does not approve this view, then the Prussia kingdom does not have the famine. 如果伦敦政府不认可这个说法,那么普鲁士王国就不存在饥荒。 The politics only needs to weigh the advantages and disadvantages, the truth is unimportant. 政治只需要权衡利弊,真相并不重要。