How to predict taking a walk of pedestrian? Or this process can predict? 如何预言一个行人的走动呢？或者说,这个过程是能够预言的吗？ Most people will reply immediately „feasible”. Because the person will move toward own destination mostly directly. 绝大多数人都会在第一时间回答“可行”吧。因为人多半是会直接走向自己的目的地的。 However is the straight line! 不过是直线而已嘛！ However, is so simple? 但是,真的有这么简单吗？ No. 没有。 Because the pedestrian on street throughout incessantly. 因为街上的行人始终不止一个。 The pedestrians will dodge others automatically, each movement of each pedestrian will have certain impact on the surrounding others. 行人会自动规避他人,每一个行人的每一个动作都会对周围的他人造成一定的影响。 Moreover, human also meets the unconscious tendency in oneself same direction person. This trend is also extremely small, moreover between two people will not depend too nearly. However, this is subtle existence. 另外,人类也会不自觉的倾向于自己同方向的人。这种趋向也是极微小的,而且两个人之间也不会靠得太近。但是,这个是微妙的存在的。 Moreover, everyone realized others close, responded conducts the circumvention movement the time is not uncertain. 另外,每一个人意识到其他人的靠近、反应过来进行规避动作的时间也不一定。 The speed that the pedestrians walk is uncertain. 行人行走的速度不一定。 When each flash, the movement of everyone causes the influence size and direction that is not the same as the surroundings person, the overall size and direction change momentarily. The indefinite quantity were too many, the uncertain factor were too many. Macroscopically, these influences will counter-balance, forms one greatly „tide of people” mutually. 每一瞬间,每个人的移动时对周围人造成的影响大小、方向都不相同,总体大小、方向随时改变。不确定的量太多了,不确定的因素太多了。在宏观上,这些影响又会互相抵消,形成一个巨大的“人潮”。 Like the Brownian movement. 就像布朗运动一样。 The Brownian movement is also called the wiener process in the math, is a stochastic process. Independent increase and normal entropy quantity the mathematical expectation of causing this process throughout is zero. This is one absolute randomly and absolutely the irreversible process. 布朗运动在数学上也称为维纳过程,是一个随机过程。独立的增量、正态的熵量使得这个过程的数学期望始终是零。这是一个绝对随机、绝对不可逆的过程。 However...... 不过…… „Luckily as a whole is not the wiener process.” king Qiding the redundant influence, the thinking was saying unceasingly: „Pedestrian always the destination...... the pedestrian chooses the basis of way either is the lifeform instinct, either is the subjective advantageous expectation.” “幸好总体上不是维纳过程。”王崎盯着不断重复的影响,思索道:“行人总有一个目的地……行人选择路径的依据要么是生物本能,要么是主观的有利期望。” At least is not absolutely random. 至少不是绝对随机。 At least is not the mathematical expectation absolutely is zero. 至少不是数学期望绝对为零。 Very good. So long as there is one possibly on the line. 很好。只要有一线可能就行。 Under king Zaki's order. Several thousand mechanism/organization birds scatter in all directions. Around key tracing in the killer commits a crime some recurring people. Fully does not tally with the general orientation of tide of people special. 在王崎的命令下。数千只机关鸟四散。重点追踪在杀人魔作案前后反复出现的一些人。还有与人潮的大方向不完全符合的特异点。 This is king Qi a mind. 这是王崎的一段心神。 His mind, then stands on already the cellular automaton god Capital path, observation, computation. 他的一段心神,则站立在已经元胞自动机化的神京道路上,观察,计算。 To Garvice, a pedestrian flow cellular automaton burden of city was too big. His without hesitation following ten thousand immortal illusion, invaded the idle computation strength of some ten thousand Xianzhen mirror. 对于贾维斯来说,一个城市的行人流元胞自动机负担太大了。他毫不犹豫的顺着万仙幻境,侵占了一部分万仙真镜的闲置计算力。 Simply speaking was...... black in the past. 简单来说就是……黑过去。 Such obvious doing dead behavior has no way to hide the truth from Feng Luoyi. But king Sakiya was clear, although ten thousand immortal illusion are flamboyant, idle computation strength many to exploding. However the research agency of entire divine land was counting on these idle computation strength, the innumerable study data run above. He applied to line up really not to know when must arrange to arrive. 这么明显的作死行为没法瞒过冯落衣。但王崎也清楚,虽然万仙幻境牛逼,闲置计算力多到爆。但是全神州的研究机构都指望着这些闲置计算力,无数研究数据都在上面跑。他申请排队真不知道要排到什么时候。 Luckily he now is also the small privileged class. Invaded ten thousand Xianzhen the mirror computation strength in him the same day, he received the news that Feng Luoyi sent. Feng Luoyi reproved him in the heart ruthlessly, then king Qi this time an idle computation strength that uses ten thousand Xianzhen the mirror must according to the ordinary standard two times of charges. 幸好他如今也算是小小的特权阶级。在他侵占万仙真镜计算力的当天,他就接到了冯落衣发来的讯息。冯落衣在心中将他狠狠训斥了一番,然后王崎这次使用万仙真镜的闲置计算力要按照普通标准的两倍收费。 Two times, king Qi feels this number receiving in exchange time. Does not owe. 两倍,王崎觉得这个数目换取时间。不亏。 But the mind of his another thread, in the position that the computation monitoring cannot see, the possible action way of killer. 而他的另外一个线程的心神,则在计算监控看不到的位置,杀人魔的可能的行动路径。 Except for is been definite by the occurrence time, „killer in some time certainly here” beside, does not have any datum. 除了由案发时间确定的,“杀人魔在某一个时间段一定在这里”之外,没有任何已知条件。 Where will he meet with the victim? 他会在哪里与被害人相遇呢？ What rule will he according to move? 他会依照什么规律移动呢？ When he will select to leave the monitor area the main road, enters an alley? 他会在什么时间点离开监控范围的大路,走进一条小巷呢？ Does not know totally. 一概不知。 However is a little certain. 但是有一点是可以肯定的。 This fellow commits a crime in the evening generally. Frank and upright kills people on the road. Moreover, his motive is not clear. But since hunts and kills randomly, will definitely spend the little time the definite victim. 这个家伙一般是在晚上作案。正大光明的在路上杀人。另外,他的作案动机不明确。但既然是随机猎杀,肯定会花一点点时间来确定受害者。 This time is impossible is too long, because he needs to hide very well. 这个时间不可能太长,因为他需要隐藏得很好。 „God Capital all life irregular the fellows, idle about were staring by the law government office.” king Qi another mind is glancing through the findings of god Capital Criminal law Division: „He may every day find some time to take a walk, commits a crime in taking a walk. On beginning work road, on going home road.” “神京所有生活不规律的、游手好闲的家伙都被律政司盯着。”王崎的另一段心神在翻阅神京刑律司的调查结果:“他或许会每天抽一些时间散步,在散步的时候作案。或者在上工路上,回家路上。” „He cannot on a grand scale collects the material of vagabond. Hehe, how if there is a person, always thinks that people inquired the matter of vagabond rascal, had been inquired by him the person will disappear...... this legend to be definitely more popular than the killer surely.” “他不能大张旗鼓的去搜集地痞的资料。呵呵,如果有怎么一个人,老是想人们打听地痞无赖的事,被他打听过的人必定会消失……这个传说肯定会比杀人魔本身还要流行。” „He should not always the bullied person...... mother has the strength to kill people are actually bullied, here is not national organ of violence extremely powerful Earth, but is the divine land, is individual military force powerful world!” “他也不应该是老是被欺负的人……尼玛有实力杀人却被欺负,这里可不是国家暴力机关极其强大的地球,而是神州,是个人武力强大的世界！” „He has the potential of attracting these vagabond rascals...... reveals the wealth, pretending a person of silly money are many, is the beauty?” “他本身就有吸引那些地痞无赖的潜质……显露钱财,装作人傻钱多,还是美色？” „Met, kills, divulges own **.” “遇到了,就杀死,宣泄自己的**。” The time that „he wanders is limited, speed not quick. He after the main road, will then attract these local hooligans in the alley.” “他游荡的时间是有限的,速度也不会有多快。他会经过大路,然后在小巷里吸引这些本地泼皮。” „As a result of no more than probability of killing, can therefore speculate, after the homicide ends, will follow some road to return to the main road, returns to the tranquil life.” “由于没有一次多杀的几率,所以可以推测,他杀完之后就会顺着某条路回到大路,回到自己平静的生活当中。” In light of the analysis of god Capital Criminal law Division, king Qi makes such judgment. 结合神京刑律司的分析,王崎做出这样的判断。 Studies the plan of action of vagabond rascal, speculated that what kind of situation these two each one experiences in this specific place meet, then obtain him to be possible at that several crossroad processes. 研究一下地痞无赖的活动规律,推测这两个个体会在怎样的情况下在这个特定的地点相遇,进而求得他有可能在那几个路口经过。 Even 30 cases, can extract the Group 30 different results. However, compares the Group 30 different suspects, selects with emphasis repetition does not help matters. 即使有三十次案件,可以求出30组不同的结果。但是,将30组不同嫌疑人进行对比,重点选出其中重复的也无济于事。 Because the quantity were too many. 因为数量实在太多了。 However, king Qi did not count on that extracts with this way solves finally. Moreover thing that this does not have any evidence, is purely by the mathematical survey, was picked the letter/believes very much difficultly. 但是,王崎并不指望用这种方式求出最终解。而且这种没有什么证据,纯粹靠数学测算算出来的东西,也很难被采信。 However, is unimportant. 但是,不要紧。 „This abnormal murderer from going out to the time of case location in certain value.” “这个变态杀人犯从出门到案发地点的时间是在一定值之内的。” „This time is impossible is too long, but will not be short. Moreover he fixes every day will go out in this time.” “这个时间不可能太长,但也不会太短。而且他每天都固定会在这个时间出门。” „Otherwise, only had the fellow who went out the record unusual in that day, should come out by god Capital criminal law Si Jiu.” “不然的话,只在案发当日有反常出门记录的家伙,早就该被神京刑律司揪出来了。” „According to the pedestrian flow rule, calculates the line that this fellow possibly passes through.” “根据行人流的规律,计算这个家伙可能经过的线路。” „Again in addition he in the possibility that the non- monitoring area wanders......” “再加上他在非监控区游荡的可能性……” „Both in addition, is one fills the possibility road map.” “两者加起来,就是一张充满可能性的路线图。” Inevitably this road map the place of restraining, is that fellow passes through is. 这张路线图的收敛之处,就是那个家伙必然经过的所在。 Although this „in may have many inevitably”. However...... 尽管这个“必然所在”有可能会有很多个。但是…… „I felt that I have been close to you very much, mixes the ball......” Director king Qi the mortal body thread finger to knock the desktop gently, in the hand is holding appreciatively a special memory. “我感觉我已经很接近你了,混球……”王崎指挥肉身的线程手指轻轻叩击桌面,手里把玩着一只特殊的记忆体。 This was king Qi the last idle thread. Remaining more than 40 threads reading related literature, paper and academic work desiring strongly. Hopes can give itself the little inspiration. 这是王崎的最后一个闲置线程了。剩下的四十多个线程都在如饥似渴的阅读相关文献、论文、学术专著。希望能够给自己一点点灵感。 „Remaining was a patient and persistent work......” king Qi thought aloud in a low voice: „Must prepare a suitable equipment.”( To be continued......) “剩下就是一个水磨工夫了嘛……”王崎低声自言自语:“得准备一件适合的装备了。”(未完待续……)